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Benihana
04-21-2008, 12:56 PM
Here would be the moves I'd make in chronological order:

IMMEDIATELY

1. Promote Bill Bray, send Todd Coffey to Louisville
2. Promote Jerry Hairston Jr., send Norris Hopper to Louisville (if he has options, otherwise DFA)
3. Sign Mike Piazza to be the go-to RH pinch-hitter and backup catcher to Bako, although I'd play Bako everyday. DFA Javy Valentin.
4. Play Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel in a strict righty/lefty platoon, and go with this lineup for the next three weeks (Dusty never would, but just for the heck of it):

SS Keppinger
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
RF Griffey
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Bako
Pitcher
CF Patterson/Freel

MAY 15

1. If Freel and Patterson don't break out of their slumps, I promote Jay Bruce and play him everyday in CF. If Freel hits well over this time period, I try to trade him for anything of value. If not, I DFA Juan Castro to make room for Bruce and Freel returns to his bench role. If Patterson starts to hit again, I would leave Bruce in AAA until one of the OFers gets injured.
2. Promote Drew Stubbs, Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika to Chattanooga (assuming they continue to rake.)
3. Promote Todd Frazier and Brandon Waring to Sarasota (assuming they continue to rake.)
4. Promote Josh Roenicke and Carlos Fisher to Louisville. If those guys are gonna make it, they should get used to pitching to better competition at their age.
5. I continue using a rotation of Harang-Cueto-Arroyo-Volquez-Belisle. If a spot start is needed, I use Fogg or one of the AAA vets (Lehr/Shearn) during this time period. Otherwise Fogg stays in his long relief/mop-up role.

JUNE 15

1. I address the Adam Dunn situation. If he is hitting over .250 at this point, I would offer him an extension- first offering more money for a 3-year deal, and then if he refuses offer less money for a 4-year deal. Either way, I would not exceed $60 MM in total money.
2. I would also revisit the Homer Bailey situation. If he continues to deal the way he has in the last month, I consider him for a promotion. If a spot starter is needed at this point, he is the guy. If he has success, I would go to a six-man rotation, with Harang pitching every fifth day no matter what. The other guys rotate around him in order to keep the rookies' innings down.

TRADES

During these next two months, I would constantly be looking to make trades, with all of the following players expendable: (I would like to move all of the major leaguers for the best return possible, however small that may be.)

Javy Valentin
Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Freel
Norris Hopper
Alex Gonzalez
Todd Coffey

Matt Maloney (his value may never be higher than it is now- trade him only for a nice haul)
Carlos Fisher (he looks to have regressed a bit so far this year)
Sam LeCure (ditto)
BJ Szymanski (I would see if someone would bite on his hot start.)
Juan Francisco (he definitely has value, but I'd be wary of his plate discipline and he has nowhere to play)

Guys I would be targeting include the following:

Taylor Teagarden C TEX
Max Ramirez C TEX
Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
Matt Kemp OF LAD
Andy Marte 1B/3B/OF CLE
Brian Anderson OF CHW
Matt LaPorta OF MIL
Erick Aybar SS LAA

JULY AND BEYOND

If/when Bailey joins the rotation in June and shows that he can stay there, I would also consider dealing Arroyo or Belisle, especially if the Reds could land a guy like Yunel Escobar (doubtful, but worth inquiring.) That situation would depend on where the Reds are in the standings come July. If Dunn refuses to sign for $60 MM or less- or if he continues to straddle the Mendoza line, I would try to move him at the deadline as well. However if Dunn is re-signed and the Reds are out of contention come July 31, I would look to deal Griffey Jr. for the best possible return. One intriguing option that I would explore is trading Jr. and Maloney to Seattle for Waldimir Balentin and Jeff Clement or Kenji Johjima- provided we could sign the latter to a reasonable extension. Additionally, the Dodgers are also reportedly discussing a contract extension with Rafael Furcal, which would make shortstop prospect Chin Ling Hu expendable. Ditto for Brent Lillebridge in Atlanta if Escobar continues to rake. I would inquire about those two if they could be had for any of the spare parts listed above (not Dunn, Belisle, or Arroyo.) Also, if Darryl Thompson and Travis Wood continue to dazzle, I would give them both a midseason promotion to Louisville and Chattanooga, respectively.

TRF
04-21-2008, 01:11 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1609889#post1609889

Benihana
04-21-2008, 01:37 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1609889#post1609889

getting a little cluttered over there, thought I'd start a new thread

RedEye
04-21-2008, 01:46 PM
Nice post. Thanks for so much material to chew on. A couple of thoughts...


I address the Adam Dunn situation. If he is hitting over .250 at this point, I would offer him an extension- first offering more money for a 3-year deal, and then if he refuses offer less money for a 4-year deal. Either way, I would not exceed $60 MM in total money.

I agree that Dunn's possible extension needs to be addressed around July, but I wonder why a .250 batting average is your criterion. Seems like there are much better measures of his value, no?


If/when Bailey joins the rotation in June and shows that he can stay there, I would also consider dealing Arroyo or Belisle, especially if the Reds could land a guy like Yunel Escobar (doubtful, but worth inquiring.)

Escobar is good, and I'd love to see the Reds consider a deal like this. The Braves also might be more motivated to do it than one would think since they have a hot 2B prospect named Lillibridge waiting in the wings. If they don't want to trade Yunel, I propose Lillibridge instead.

princeton
04-21-2008, 01:49 PM
Jerry Hairston might get a very large pay increase upon promotion.

Benihana
04-21-2008, 02:11 PM
Nice post. Thanks for so much material to chew on. A couple of thoughts...



I agree that Dunn's possible extension needs to be addressed around July, but I wonder why a .250 batting average is your criterion. Seems like there are much better measures of his value, no?



Escobar is good, and I'd love to see the Reds consider a deal like this. The Braves also might be more motivated to do it than one would think since they have a hot 2B prospect named Lillibridge waiting in the wings. If they don't want to trade Yunel, I propose Lillibridge instead.

Thanks. I used batting average as a criteria for Dunn because of the other thread I started entitled "Adam Dunn Stock Watch" which compared him to Andruw Jones, who fell off a cliff at age 29. Dunn is most certainly going to get on base because of his walks, as this year he's had more than anyone. He will keep his power as well, as he's not shrinking anytime soon. However the concern with him lies in his ability to make contact. While his walks and OBP are great, he needs to hit the ball (and hit it far) to be worth the kind of money he'll get on his next deal. I suppose you could measure his worth by his HR's, his SLG, or his BA, and for simplicity sake I chose his BA. Either way, I'd like to see him get to at least the .250 level, or fears of a Jones-like dropoff may soon be realized.

As far as the Braves with Lillibridge go, I agree completely. I would try for Escobar first, and BL second. But I do think they are a good match, and they've had serious interest in Arroyo in the past (and could use a starter with Glavine on the DL.)

CaiGuy
04-21-2008, 02:15 PM
Why the desire to have Hairston? What makes him better than Hopper?

Just askin', because I do not see what good he could bring to the roster.

Benihana
04-21-2008, 02:22 PM
Why the desire to have Hairston? What makes him better than Hopper?

Just askin', because I do not see what good he could bring to the roster.

He is absolutely raking in AAA and has done more at the big league level than Hopper. Also, his versaitility allows him to play a lot more positions- like a Freel-type. Hopper is absolutely useless on this roster.

RedlegJake
04-21-2008, 03:02 PM
I'd bring up Hairston and hope his hot start continues over. You might get adecent bump in production for awhile and when he comes back to earth he's not any worse than Hopper and has more versatility.

TOBTTReds
04-21-2008, 03:08 PM
...Chris Capuano would be on our DL

MartyFan
04-21-2008, 03:16 PM
I would trade Dunn...Move Junior to LF bring Bruce up and put him in RF and keep him there. I would pick up the option on Junior. Patterson would be our CF for this season, maybe next when he is replaced by Stubbs.

I would DFA Ross and Castro.

I agree with the signing of Piazza as the RH power guy off the bench.

Keep Kepp at SS for the time being.

I would explore the trade value of Hairston (since he is hot) and has a manageable contract that favors most every team. I would also look to the Braves to see if they want Arroyo and see what teams would be looking for Hatte.

Benihana
04-21-2008, 03:17 PM
...Chris Capuano would be on our DL

and Ryan Freel (and his contract) would be on the Brewers :cool:

TOBTTReds
04-21-2008, 03:30 PM
and Ryan Freel (and his contract) would be on the Brewers :cool:

touche...and stubbs would not be our prospect :cool:

coachw513
04-21-2008, 04:18 PM
Now posting this in the more appropriate area...

Why does this seem so simple to me:
1. Bruce up, Hopper down (or DFA)...Bruce starts every day in CF vs RH, and gets the occasional start vs lefty's or for Griffey in RF...
2. Patterson is the 4th OF...starts many games in CF against RH and will be seen nearly every night replacing Dunn/Griffey as a defensive replacement (with Bruce moving to RF)
3. Ross up (when healthy), Valentin DFA...I have absolute confidence that Hatteburg can become a LH PH deluxe, and is less of a liability against LH pitchers than Javy from the right side IMO...and I have absolute confidence that Valentin is a destructive force to our pitching staff when behind the plate...
4. Bray up, Mercker DFA...
5. Bullpen of: Cordero, Burton, Bray, Coffey, Affeldt, Lincoln and Fogg...Fogg goes when Weathers comes back healthy (and if Belisle struggles, we simply turn to Bailey or Lehr), Affeldt and Lincoln to assume long relief duties when Fogg leaves...keep giving the ball to Burton, Bray and Coffey...don't freak out when they have 2-3 poor outings...have the same mentality we've had with Votto and EE...just leave them alone and trust their talent...
6. Bench of Patterson, Hatteburg, Hairston, Bako and Freel...no power, but some versatility and speed...

I continue to hold out hope that we are playing poorly, not a bad team...why??...simple- STARTING PITCHING...we in RZ have begun picking apart the lack of command of Edison Volquez, he of the 1-point-whatever ERA and the 2-0 record...not that I don't get those concerns, but in previous years we'd be picking apart the abysmal performances of Eric Milton or Jimmy Haynes or Paul Wilson...

But yes, we are what we are, until we aren't any more...but it's a helluva lot more fun when at this moment wake up pretty much every morning excited about seeing the Reds' starter for that night (uh, this would be a post-Fogg thought)...
__________________

RedEye
04-21-2008, 06:26 PM
I continue to hold out hope that we are playing poorly, not a bad team...why??...simple- STARTING PITCHING...we in RZ have begun picking apart the lack of command of Edison Volquez, he of the 1-point-whatever ERA and the 2-0 record...not that I don't get those concerns, but in previous years we'd be picking apart the abysmal performances of Eric Milton or Jimmy Haynes or Paul Wilson...

But yes, we are what we are, until we aren't any more...but it's a helluva lot more fun when at this moment wake up pretty much every morning excited about seeing the Reds' starter for that night (uh, this would be a post-Fogg thought)...


I'm right there with ya on this. This "bad" team still feels a bit better to me than some of the smoke-and-mirrors "good" teams the Reds have had in the past. The main reason? Starting pitching.

HokieRed
04-21-2008, 10:33 PM
Actually I think things are already starting to get clearer for next year and the long term. This team is no contender, to start with. It will take most people and the FO a while to throw in on this but hopefully somebody in the organization will see this and start making decisions already, although a very bad one for the long term has been made in losing last year's best player--and the guy who would have been this year's best player, Josh Hamilton. Future core of the team should have been Hamilton, Bruce, and Votto, an awesome threesome, but now it will have to start only with Bruce, and Votto, then Keppinger, Edwin (probably in left field if he hits as I suspect he will), and Phillips (though with a much more realistic projection of his offensive ability). Losing Hamilton is major; I'd much rather be experimenting with Bailey in the rotation and Hamilton still for the future, but that's over and done with. Need now to build the rotation for next year: Harang, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, and then one of Arroyo, Lehr, or Maloney (hopefully Maloney). We part company with Dunn and Griffey and reinvest the money in a center fielder if Bruce cannot play the position and a third baseman if Keppinger can handle shortstop. Then try for an upgrade behind the plate, which ought to be easy to manage if the new general manager can avoid the kinds of 2 and 3 million dollar mistakes that Krivsky has made so many of. Need, too, to start building toward a bullpen whose first three names are Cordero, Burton, and Bray, together with some combination of Roenicke, Pelland, Viola etc.

oregonred
04-22-2008, 01:17 AM
I'm right there with ya on this. This "bad" team still feels a bit better to me than some of the smoke-and-mirrors "good" teams the Reds have had in the past. The main reason? Starting pitching.

Good post. I agree 100%. This is the first year since 1995 that the starting pitching staff wasn't almost a complete collection of retreads and come back artists. Hopefully the recent skid is an opportunity to reset expectations for this season and make some more of the obvious roster moves that are needed to assemble a more sane 25-man lineup.

With the current #1-#4 starting staff, one could finally see the potential for the club to run off some long winning streaks/winning months at some point in the season. One hot 16-4 kind of run sometime by end of July and they'll keep things interesting the rest of the year. I actually love where this team is headed for 2009 and beyond, I'm not going to worry about an 8-12 start one bit. Anything Bailey & Bruce could do with the big club would be an extra bonus.

One more time, altogether now, Manos de Oro, Manos de Oro, Manos de Oro...

WMR
04-22-2008, 01:26 AM
I'd fire Dusty Baker. Wait a sec, I never would've hired him in the first place. :bang:

Benihana
04-22-2008, 10:33 AM
I'd fire Dusty Baker. Wait a sec, I never would've hired him in the first place. :bang:

Dusty Baker is not the problem with this team. I agree the CF du jour should not be in the leadoff position, but that's about the only complaint I have with him so far.

In previous years, Encarnacion would have been benched. Scott Hatteberg would be playing 1B (and probably batting cleanup.) And I think Baker has handled the pitching staff- particularly the rookies- extremely well.

BRM
04-22-2008, 10:46 AM
I'd fire Dusty Baker. Wait a sec, I never would've hired him in the first place. :bang:

Ya know, I get the distinct impression you don't like Dusty Baker as a manager. ;)

Benihana
07-29-2009, 05:14 PM
bump




Guys I would be targeting include the following:

Taylor Teagarden C TEX
Max Ramirez C TEX
Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
Matt Kemp OF LAD
Andy Marte 1B/3B/OF CLE
Brian Anderson OF CHW
Matt LaPorta OF MIL
Erick Aybar SS LAA


A year and a half later, we got Balentien. Now if we can just get Kemp...

nate
07-29-2009, 05:29 PM
bump



A year and a half later, we got Balentien. Now if we can just get Kemp...

We're on pace to get him in 1.5 to 12 years, Beni!

TRF
07-29-2009, 05:33 PM
bump



A year and a half later, we got Balentien. Now if we can just get Kemp...

dude... you quoted yourself.

tres tacky.:cool:

Benihana
07-29-2009, 05:37 PM
dude... you quoted yourself.

tres tacky.:cool:

The Reds finally acquired someone I wanted. I can't revel in the moment?

TRF
07-29-2009, 05:39 PM
The Reds finally acquired someone I wanted. I can't revel in the moment?

you send me a PM... I'll give you props.