PDA

View Full Version : Now is the time for the Reds to go on a hot streak



OnBaseMachine
04-21-2008, 01:59 PM
With the Reds upcoming schedule, now is the time for them to pull off about seven in 10 games or so. They open up a brief two game series tonight with the 7-11 Dodgers, a team that is having the same troubles as our Reds - the inability to score runs. Tonight will be Matt Belisle vs Brad Penny and tomorrow night we throw Edinson Volquez out there against lefty Hong-Chih Kuo. We need to win one of these two.

After the Dodgers leave town the 7-12 Houston Astros come to town. Bronson Arroyo will attempt to right the ship Wednesday night again Chris Sampson, who has an ERA over 8.00. Johnny Cueto will face off against Jack Cassel on Thursday. Both pitching matchups favor the Reds in this series. Winning three of four against the Dodgers/Astros should be the goal.

After Thursday afternoons game against the Dodgers, the Reds will travel to San Francisco to play the 8-11 Giants for three games. This is yet another series the Reds *should* win. We should consider ourselves lucky considering the Reds will miss both Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum in this series. Friday night will be Aaron Harang vs Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez is a wild lefty with good stuff but he does have control issues and seems to alternate between good outings and bad through four starts, hopefully that trend continues because he pitched five shutout innings yesterday. Saturday will be Matt Belisle vs Kevin Correia. This is really a push but the Reds have seemed to hit well of Correia in the past. Sunday is Edinson Volquez vs Barry Zito. This matchup favors the Reds as Zito is only a shadow of his former self. Two of three here needs to be the goal.

Three of four from LA/Houston and two of three from San Fran, plus the win over the Brewers yesterday would give the Reds six wins in their last eight games and a record of 13-13 going into St. Louis with Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Aaron Harang as the scheduled starters to end the month of April. A series win here gives the Reds a winning record in April.

*BaseClogger*
04-21-2008, 02:01 PM
good analysis... :thumbup:

paulrichjr
04-21-2008, 02:14 PM
IS this why the Cards are doing so well this year? They seem to be playing no one and winning. Of couse when we play the "no ones" we lose.

OnBaseMachine
04-21-2008, 02:26 PM
IS this why the Cards are doing so well this year? They seem to be playing no one and winning. Of couse when we play the "no ones" we lose.

Yep. So far the Cardinals have played three games against the Nationals (5-14), three games against the Astros (7-12), and seven games against the Giants (8-11). 68% (13 of 19) of their games have come against three of the worst teams in the league. The other six games they have played were against the 9-9 Rockies and 11-7 Brewers, all at home.

Falls City Beer
04-21-2008, 02:26 PM
IS this why the Cards are doing so well this year? They seem to be playing no one and winning. Of couse when we play the "no ones" we lose.

I put some stock in strength of schedule, but not a lot. Teams change over the course of a season--early on last season, folks would have pegged the Rockies as a doormat, in most cases. That's just one example, and an extreme one, but the best guidepost is still pythagorean + wins, not "strength of schedule."

RedsManRick
04-21-2008, 02:42 PM
This early in the season, SOS is a little too self determinant. It's all relative. Are those teams "bad" because they're genuinely bad or are they "bad" because they've played the Cardinals and other "good" teams.

That said, the Nationals, Astros, and Giants were all expected to be poor teams. That said, when you do make adjustments for SOS, among other things, the Cards drop a bit. Using BPs method, their SOS adjustment costs the Cardinals and Cubs both 3 wins. The Reds have had only 1 series against a team that wasn't supposed to be good, Pittsburgh.

I agree, we really need to pickup a few games against Houston and SF.

princeton
04-21-2008, 02:44 PM
yes, I'm glad that the World Champion Pirates aren't on schedule for a while. Now we can start to win.