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dougdirt
04-21-2008, 08:00 PM
The guys over at Saber-scouting have pumped out their first mock draft. Here is what they have for the Reds:

#7 - Cincinnati Reds

Frankie: Cincy has faith in their high schoolers. Melville should be right there for the taking. Am I the only one that sees a match there? Heís right up their alley and I really have seen no hint that they are changing their draft philosophy anytime soon. And, I really donít think thereís another guy there for them to take that fits as well as Melville.

Kiley: So, I guess weíre only going to agree on #1. At #7, the Reds have all the first baseman still on the board; Hosmer, Smoak, and Alonso, and they arguably make up the top 3 players on the board. And Joey Votto isnít the type of guy to force you not to take a 1B, especially with these 1Bs officially slipping. The Reds donít have a history of paying for Boras guys (Hosmer) and Smoak is the consenus guy ahead of Alonso, so for me, this pick is Smoak or whoever the Reds have as the top arm, either Tulaneís Shooter Hunt, Fresno Stateís Tanner Scheppers, or Missouri prepster Tim Melville. I think when it comes down to it, the Reds take the pitcher and go with Tulaneís version of Homer Bailey, Shooter Hunt.

Kiley: In a related note, no Matusz through seven picks?! His fanclub will be coming to your doorstep!

Frankie: Itís coming, shhhh. His spotlight time is coming.

Kiley: The creepiest line in Mock Draft history.

Frankieís Projection for #7: Tim Melville, RHP, Missouriís Holt HS

Kileyís Projection for #7: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/04/21/2008mockdraft1/

Homer Bailey
04-21-2008, 08:07 PM
How can you not draft a pitcher named Shooter Hunt?

dougdirt
04-21-2008, 08:10 PM
How can you not draft a pitcher named Shooter Hunt?

When you draft a pitcher named Tim Melville :D

Joseph
04-21-2008, 08:16 PM
How can you not draft a pitcher named Shooter Hunt?

Pretty much my line of thought too. Homer, Shooter, and Johhny K.

Thats got the makings of a rotation for the ages....name wise.

Aronchis
04-21-2008, 08:20 PM
Hunt doesn't use his legs nearly as well as Bailey, which has been noted on another thread. I would stay away from him. Sounds like a shoulder blowout candidate.

Do you draft for need at this point or talent? Do you pass on a 1stbaseman or Melville because they aren't a "need" and instead look at SS or a polished lefthanded starter?

redhawk61
04-21-2008, 09:17 PM
Why is no one talking about Christian Friedrich. He is having a very good year this year for EKU. Granted he isn't playing top flight competition in the OVC. But I have seen him pitch as I have a buddy who goes to school down there. We have gone to a couple of his games, and let me tell you this guy has the mechanics and the stuff to be a very good pitcher, as well as the polish to soar through the minors. And is curve by the way is sick, it is practically unhittable. With our need for a lefty in the rotation, and the stuff he has, it almost seems like a no-brainer. idk why you would waste your time with a Shooter Hunt who has questionable mechanics.

Benihana
04-21-2008, 09:29 PM
I would be very upset if Matusz and Smoak were on the board and the Reds passed. Especially on Matusz.

OnBaseMachine
04-21-2008, 09:30 PM
I would be very upset if Matusz and Smoak were on the board and the Reds passed. Especially on Matusz.

As would I.

cincyinco
04-21-2008, 09:32 PM
Benihana, I agree completely. If Matusz was on their board, and he didn't even get sniffed at by the Reds, I'd pull my hair. He's exactly what this team needs, and his stock is still high as far as I know.

Aronchis
04-21-2008, 09:37 PM
Matusz is probably ideal for a need. Doesn't throw overly hard, but has very good secondary stuff and is left-handed.

HBP
04-21-2008, 10:14 PM
How can you not draft a pitcher named Shooter Hunt?


Pretty much my line of thought too. Homer, Shooter, and Johhny K.

Thats got the makings of a rotation for the ages....name wise.

http://toole.blogspot.com/mcgavin.jpg

lollipopcurve
04-21-2008, 10:56 PM
Poor analysis, in my opinion. It would be very odd for Chris Buckley to take a HS pitcher with lots of good/comparable college talent on the board.

Kingspoint
04-22-2008, 03:48 AM
There's a zillion mock drafts already out there. It's such a long ways away and High School and College teams are just starting their seasons.

I'd like us to draft the best hitter regardless of position.

Benihana
04-22-2008, 10:40 AM
I'd like us to draft the best player regardless of position.

There, fixed that for ya. ;)

IslandRed
04-22-2008, 11:35 AM
I don't think teams should draft for need. Most of these guys, even college players, are far enough away that by the time they reach the majors, the big club's needs and the organizational depth at that position could have changed completely. At best, it should be a tiebreaker if the top guys on the board have essentially equal grades.

And anyway, when is pitching ever NOT an organizational need? If the Reds or any other club ever goes into a draft thinking "we don't need pitching this year," they'll be the first club in the history of the draft to feel that way. But I realize we're discussing just the first-round pick here.

REDblooded
04-22-2008, 11:39 AM
Gordon Beckham anyone?

Steve4192
04-23-2008, 02:01 AM
Poor analysis, in my opinion. It would be very odd for Chris Buckley to take a HS pitcher with lots of good/comparable college talent on the board.

Agreed.

Especially the second guy who had them picking a 1B at #7 overall. The Krivsky era drafts have been very heavy on the up the middle defenders who have potential with the bat rather than polished bats who are already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

I'm pretty sure the Reds next great 1B prospect will be drafted as a C/SS/3B and get moved to 1B once he proves he can't handle the more difficult defensive assignment. Hell, that's how they got Joey Votto (moved from catcher) and they've already got some possible candidates in Waring, Frazier, Rosales, etc.

OnBaseMachine
04-23-2008, 02:30 AM
Gordon Beckham anyone?

That would be a heckuva pick IMO. He's got a chance to move quickly ala Troy Tulowitzki.

dougdirt
04-23-2008, 04:44 AM
Agreed.

Especially the second guy who had them picking a 1B at #7 overall. The Krivsky era drafts have been very heavy on the up the middle defenders who have potential with the bat rather than polished bats who are already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

I'm pretty sure the Reds next great 1B prospect will be drafted as a C/SS/3B and get moved to 1B once he proves he can't handle the more difficult defensive assignment. Hell, that's how they got Joey Votto (moved from catcher) and they've already got some possible candidates in Waring, Frazier, Rosales, etc.

The Krivsky era drafts? It takes a lot more than 2 drafts to put your thumb on a type of drafting philosophy. While I don't think the Reds will take a 1B, I wouldn't say its poor analysis because someone projects him to go there. The Reds were really looking at Billy Rowell in 2006 who is a 3B now, but likely moves to 1B down the road due to his size. Last year they were rumored to go with Kevin Ehrens, another 3B before going with Mesoraco.

lollipopcurve
04-23-2008, 09:53 AM
The Krivsky era drafts? It takes a lot more than 2 drafts to put your thumb on a type of drafting philosophy. While I don't think the Reds will take a 1B, I wouldn't say its poor analysis because someone projects him to go there.

There's a much longer track record for scouting director Chris Buckley, and Buckley is the guy who's going to make the call. The fact that the mock draft does not take into account Buckley's record of usually targeting college players early leads me to believe these "analysts" are engaged in the usual guesswork.

dougdirt
04-23-2008, 01:30 PM
There's a much longer track record for scouting director Chris Buckley, and Buckley is the guy who's going to make the call. The fact that the mock draft does not take into account Buckley's record of usually targeting college players early leads me to believe these "analysts" are engaged in the usual guesswork.

Maybe, and yet at the same time over the last two years of the 4 players floated around that the Reds had serious interest in for the #1 pick there were 3 high school players and 1 college player (who they ended up taking). Sometimes its just a matter of who falls to you and perhaps Buckley drafting college kids has been a result of those guys just falling to them and not exactly a bias to college kids.

Benihana
04-23-2008, 02:45 PM
Well I think anything relating to the Reds usual draft philosophy can go out the window with today's developments. I wonder if Buckley stays on?

dougdirt
04-23-2008, 02:46 PM
Well I think anything relating to the Reds usual draft philosophy can go out the window with today's developments. I wonder if Buckley stays on?

I don't think it goes out the window because I don't think GM's in general have much to do with the draft. Thats why they hire scouts and player directors.

Benihana
04-23-2008, 02:51 PM
Thats why they hire scouts and player directors.

Read your statement again. GM's hire their own scouts and player directors, so will we see Jocketty clean house? That remains to be seen.

Caveat Emperor
04-23-2008, 03:33 PM
Shooter Hunt...

...from THE Tulane University of Louisiana.

Sign me up. ;)

Kingspoint
04-23-2008, 11:49 PM
There's a much longer track record for scouting director Chris Buckley, and Buckley is the guy who's going to make the call. The fact that the mock draft does not take into account Buckley's record of usually targeting college players early leads me to believe these "analysts" are engaged in the usual guesswork.

I can't go along with that. I think Castellini is in love with Walt Jockety, so much in love with him that he's blind to recognizing good advice now when it's given to him. I no longer trust that Castellini will listen to his scouts.

I don't think it matters anymore who we draft because I think he'll be traded by Jockety before he ever reaches the REDS. I think that will be true of most of the teams' prospects.

Blitz Dorsey
04-24-2008, 02:18 AM
I think GMs play a big role in the first couple of picks. After that, of course not, but they certainly make the call on the first couple of picks. Has anyone read Moneyball? Not that everyone does it like Beane of course, but I know for a fact that O'Brien and Krivsky were heavily involved in the early part of the draft.

And BTW, you NEVER should "draft for need" in MLB. Always take the best player available regardless of position.

RedlegJake
04-24-2008, 09:53 AM
I agree, the GM IS involved in the first couple picks. Too much money involved not to be. Buckley will have recommendations, so will other scouts, but WJ will ok the first round or two before they're actually picked.

Kingspoint, the scouts don't report to Castellini. They report to Buckley and through him to Jocketty. A couple may have WJ's ear directly but at this point, until WJ has time to know them most will report to Buckley, I'd imagine. Where did you get the idea that Cast doesn't take advice? That was the big knock on Krivsky - not Castellini.

medford
04-24-2008, 10:54 AM
I can't go along with that. I think Castellini is in love with Walt Jockety, so much in love with him that he's blind to recognizing good advice now when it's given to him. I no longer trust that Castellini will listen to his scouts.

I don't think it matters anymore who we draft because I think he'll be traded by Jockety before he ever reaches the REDS. I think that will be true of most of the teams' prospects.

I've seen this numerous times the last couple of days, but I'm not sure why so much. I'm not real familar w/ Jockety's tenure/history in St. Louis, other than the results on the majore league level. However, from reading the board yesterday, did Jockety ever trade away anyone of great substance during his tenure? Other than Haren, I don't think I saw anything mentioned where he lost a prospect that turned out to be a solid major leaguer. Would I trade Bailey right now for a legit shot at 7 playoff appearances and a World Series ring? You betcha.

Prospects are nice, but give me a winning team on the major league level. Yes I recognize that a team like Cincinnati has to depend on talent rising thru the minors to the big league club in order to replace players they can either no longer afford, or don't want anymore. I personally think the best model for a team like cincy is sitting about 300 miles north in Cleveland. Built your team up thru the draft and development to give yourself a legit 5-7 year run, sign key players long term, and trade your prospects to supplement your roster to give you the most impact during that run. Then when the whole team starts to become to expensive, trade away your expensive pieces to build your farm system back up, rebuild the major league club thru the draft and development of players for 3-5 seasons, then prepare yourself for another strong 5-7 year run.

I'm begining to wonder if Jockety has a rep for trading away talent to fill holes on the major league level simply because that was the best position for the Cardinals during that time. I liken similar to the rep that Dusty has for preferring vets at the end of their career to youth. While w/ the Cubs & San Fran, did either club have strong promising young talent that was there to push the neffi prerez's of the world out of the way? We've seen so far that when a young rookie begins to show his promise like Votto has, he's more than willing to allow that younger player to subplant the older veteran at the end of his career (Hatt). Dusty has been an advocate of getting Bruce up w/ the big club. My guess is that Bruce would have seen similar playing time as Votto out of the gate, then once he proved he was ready for the everyday grind and hitting with authority, he would have been the regular centerfielder?

Aronchis
04-24-2008, 12:01 PM
This is Chris Buckley's realm. Krivsky didn't do much with this part of the operations, Jock will probably not even know who the Reds picked a month after the draft.

Tony Cloninger
04-24-2008, 12:33 PM
Look at Walt's record in OAK for the minors to see what he can do.