PDA

View Full Version : Amazingly Bad Lineup Construction



reds44
04-21-2008, 10:05 PM
Here is the Reds lineup tonight, with BA and OPS included.

1. Ryan Freel (.273/.589)
2. Brandon Phillips (.253/.682)
3. Ken Griffey Jr. (.268/.762)
4. Adam Dunn (.182/.730)
5. Jeff Keppinger (.321/.852)
6. Joey Votto (.292/.848)
7. Edwin Encarnacion (.266/.882)
8. Paul Bako (.327/.921)

Am I the only one that sees a problem with this?

First of all, somebody needs to tell Dusty CF right now is the Reds worst offensive position on the diamond. If it's Patterson, Freel, or Hopper, none of them belong anywhere near leadoff. Somebody really needs to tell Brandon Phillips to stop swinging for the downs. He is looking like he did back in his old day with the Indians.

The Reds 4 best hitters right now (3 of which whom I don't see why you would expect to stop hitting) are batting in the bottom 4 spots of the batting order (excluding the pitcher).

Something isn't right about that.

Matt700wlw
04-21-2008, 10:07 PM
Bako should be batting higher :lol: :lol: :lol:

That is damn funny, even though we KNOW it won't last.

Patrick Bateman
04-21-2008, 10:08 PM
I agree with you on Freel, but your reading far too much into the sample size. I mean Paul Bako has the highest OPS so far... you can't base these types of decisions on such small samples.

reds44
04-21-2008, 10:08 PM
I agree with you on Freel, but your reading far too much into the sample size. I mean Paul Bako has the highest OPS so far... you can't base these types of decisions on such small samples.
Freel and Phillips belong nowhere near 1-2.

Freel should be batting 8th, and Phillips 6th.

Highlifeman21
04-21-2008, 10:09 PM
Seeing Griffey and Dunn 3/4 is a welcomed change.

Unfortunately, that welcomed change came at the expense of having Freel and Phillips 1/2, when Keppinger's shown good production out of the 2 spot, and Phillips continues to be an out-making machine.

Sadly, the Reds continue to lack a true leadoff hitter, and I fear that not having a reliable table-setter at the top of the lineup will only lead to less runs scored, and an anemic offense not putting up enough runs for a fledgling pitching staff.

WMR
04-21-2008, 10:11 PM
I don't agree with you on Bako.

Everything else you mention, I'm cool wit it.

CF at lead-off written in stone is just plain dumb considering our personnel.

Oh well, c'est la vie.

reds44
04-21-2008, 10:13 PM
1. Keppinger
2. Votto
3. Dunn
4. Encarnacion
5. Griffey
6. Phillips
7. Bako
8. Whoever is playing CF unless his name is Jay Bruce

Patrick Bateman
04-21-2008, 10:14 PM
Freel and Phillips belong nowhere near 1-2.

Freel should be batting 8th, and Phillips 6th.

I agreed with you on Freel... and Phillips isn't going to be moved. This discussion has taken place literally every day for the past 3 years on this board. Yes, Phillips should not be #2, but really have you just discovered this now?

Spring~Fields
04-21-2008, 10:20 PM
First of all, somebody needs to tell Dusty CF right now is the Reds worst offensive position on the diamond.

I didn't know how right you are until I just read the following.



MORE COREY: Baker didn’t realize until Sunday that Patterson had been struggling so mightily on offense. He’s hitless in his last 21 at-bats, tying a career high. In his last 10 games, he’s 1-for-28.

“It didn’t seem like that because he’s not striking out. Most of the time when a guy is 0-for-something, he’s got a bunch of punch-outs in there,” Baker said.

Patterson has only struck out four times in 59 at-bats.

He’s one of the toughest players to fan in the league, with one strikeout in every 20 at-bats, Baker said.

“He’ll be all right,” Baker said. “He’ll be fine.”


And Baker can't be handed some of the blame ? I think so.

Matt700wlw
04-21-2008, 10:22 PM
That's nice. Dusty didn't even know.


WE KNEW!!!! We're just stupid fans.

edabbs44
04-21-2008, 10:23 PM
We can harp on the lineup construction all day but bottom line is that these guys need to start hitting...period. If they were performing and lineup construction was holding them back then I think we'd have a legit beef. But you can order these guys anyway you'd like right now. The only difference would be that we wouldn't have Dusty to blame.

CrackerJack
04-21-2008, 10:24 PM
MORE COREY: Baker didn’t realize until Sunday that Patterson had been struggling so mightily on offense. He’s hitless in his last 21 at-bats, tying a career high. In his last 10 games, he’s 1-for-28.

“It didn’t seem like that because he’s not striking out. Most of the time when a guy is 0-for-something, he’s got a bunch of punch-outs in there,” Baker said.

Patterson has only struck out four times in 59 at-bats.

He’s one of the toughest players to fan in the league, with one strikeout in every 20 at-bats, Baker said.

“He’ll be all right,” Baker said. “He’ll be fine.”


God help us all.

Spring~Fields
04-21-2008, 10:24 PM
That's nice. Dusty didn't even know.


WE KNEW!!!! We're just stupid fans.

What else doesn't he realize? :(

reds44
04-21-2008, 10:26 PM
God help us all.
Good Lord.

WMR
04-21-2008, 10:28 PM
That's nice. Dusty didn't even know.


WE KNEW!!!! We're just stupid fans.

Things aren't as bad as we thought.... they're worse!

Can someone get Dusty a stat sheet?!?!?!?! LMAO, just utterly ridiculous. :thumbdown Wake up Dusty.

pahster
04-21-2008, 10:31 PM
Surely Dusty jests. Right?

reds44
04-21-2008, 10:33 PM
Edwin really needs to be out of the 7 hole tomorrow.

Dude is straight rakin right now.

cincyinco
04-21-2008, 10:43 PM
My Reds Lineup:

B. Phillips - 2B
J. Keppinger - SS
A. Dunn - LF
K. Griffey - RF
E. Encarnacion - 3B
J. Votto - 1B
D. Ross - C - or Paul Bako
C. Patterson - CF
pitcher

Phillips gets less double plays to hit in.. speed at the top of the lineup. Perhaps he's a leadoff guy in the mold of a poor mans Alfonso Soriano. Kinda there by default, but big plus for me is he avoids the DP.

Kepp in the 2 hole.

Dunn at 3 where is OBP is a more valuable asset, he still has some speed for a big guy.

Griff #4 by default. Has to be in the heart of the order for Dusty. #4 is most realistic if not #3.

Since no more than 2 lefties in a row, Edwin backs up Griff. If he can back up Dunn in the order, he can protect Griff just as well.

Ross is the RHP that splits up the lefties at the end like Votto and Cpatt. Thats assuming Ross comes up shortly. Otherwise, you might have an issue with Bako with too many lefties in a row.

But otherwise, I wonder how this lineup might perform. May be contraversial, but I really think you gotta get Phillips either out of the way of hitting into Double Plays as much as possible, or down further in the lineup, defenitely not cleanup.

KronoRed
04-21-2008, 10:47 PM
Someone tell Dusty that Patterson being "fine" is just what we are getting right now.

*BaseClogger*
04-21-2008, 11:02 PM
My Reds Lineup:

B. Phillips - 2B
J. Keppinger - SS
A. Dunn - LF
K. Griffey - RF
E. Encarnacion - 3B
J. Votto - 1B
D. Ross - C - or Paul Bako
C. Patterson - CF
pitcher

I can dig this lineup too. I feel like I have said this about ten different lineup configurations of RZ. Come on Dusty, it's almost like anything you throw together randomly will be better than what you are putting out there.

Get Dunn into the #2 or #3 spot in front of the mashers.

edabbs44
04-21-2008, 11:03 PM
Surely Dusty jests. Right?

I think maybe. I bet he knew CPatt has been awful but maybe he didn't know that he was 0-21.

I think Dusty needs to take a communications course. Even if what he said was exactly as it sounded, he still shouldn't be saying those things in public. :)

Falls City Beer
04-21-2008, 11:03 PM
I can dig this lineup too. I feel like I have said this about ten different lineup configurations of RZ. Come on Dusty, it's almost like anything you throw together randomly will be better than what you are putting out there.

Get Dunn into the #2 or #3 spot in front of the mashers.

This team has mashers besides Dunn? First I've heard of it.

*BaseClogger*
04-21-2008, 11:04 PM
This team has mashers besides Dunn? First I've heard of it.

Encarnacion, Votto, and Bako! :D

Benihana
04-21-2008, 11:09 PM
My ideal lineup for the next few weeks:

SS Keppinger
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
RF Griffey
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Bako
Pitcher
CF Patterson/Freel

reds44
04-21-2008, 11:11 PM
My ideal lineup for the next few weeks:

SS Keppinger
2B Phillips
1B Dunn
LF Griffey
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Bako
Pitcher
CF Patterson/Freel
Two first baseman and no RF??

:D

WMR
04-21-2008, 11:11 PM
Keppinger
Dunn
EE
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Bako
Patterson
Pitcher

SMcGavin
04-21-2008, 11:14 PM
My Reds Lineup:

B. Phillips - 2B
J. Keppinger - SS
A. Dunn - LF
K. Griffey - RF
E. Encarnacion - 3B
J. Votto - 1B
D. Ross - C - or Paul Bako
C. Patterson - CF
pitcher


I like it and I think it's something Dusty might actually do. You know he is not ever going to hit Griffey anywhere but 3rd or 4th and he's probably never going to hit Dunn 2nd. Brandon Phillips is fast so maybe Dusty will think about him at leadoff when Patterson's cold spell hits 1 for 40.

*BaseClogger*
04-21-2008, 11:20 PM
I like it and I think it's something Dusty might actually do. You know he is not ever going to hit Griffey anywhere but 3rd or 4th and he's probably never going to hit Dunn 2nd. Brandon Phillips is fast so maybe Dusty will think about him at leadoff when Patterson's cold spell hits 1 for 40.

I agree, except I doubt Dusty will hit Dunn #3 and Griffey #4 when he could leave it as is...

Stormy
04-21-2008, 11:43 PM
I didn't know how right you are until I just read the following.



And Baker can't be handed some of the blame ? I think so.

Dusty Baker is a :angry: idiot. It has taken him all of a dozen games to fulfill every act of folly his critics forecast he'd commit. In retrospect, those critiques weren't stereotypes, they were accurate representations of probably the worst personnel utilization and lineup construct you'll ever see from a MLB manager. How can you give the benefit of the doubt to a guy who manufactures ways to get his worst bats the maximum number of ABs, all while being oblivious to their epic failures in those spots? You don't know that Patterson is struggling?? Really??

Baker is turnning basically the same offensive personnel that thrived under Petey Mac, into one of the league's most dormant offenses. Between his hitting philosophy, personnel usage and lineup design, he's a one man slump inducer.

cincyinco
04-22-2008, 12:05 AM
I was thinkin about the lineup I posted earlier some more.. maybe I should post this in the lineup game thread.. but..

If you even wanted to go LaRussa or BrewCrew style and hit the pitcher 8th, put Cpatt in the 9 spot.. If you really believe the "extra leadoff" theory or whatever.. It also further minimizes the DP's Phillips would get into - either because Patterson wont get on base, or if he does, there's speed to help diminish the chances of a DP.

REDREAD
04-22-2008, 12:18 AM
I can see putting Votto and Keppinger behind Dunn. Dunn is getting a ton of walks, so you want someone with a decent batting average to drive him in.

Batting EdE behind Dunn didn't work out so well, neither did Phillips.

I can see putting Phillilps in the #2 hole in hopes that he will focus more on making contact. Maybe that's Dusty's way of trying to tell him to stop swinging for the fences.

In any event, this offense is struggling so much, that it's hard to blame Dusty.
We would've been spanked tonight no matter what the lineup was.

Screwball
04-22-2008, 12:35 AM
Dusty Baker is a :angry: idiot. It has taken him all of a dozen games to fulfill every act of folly his critics forecast he'd commit.

No argument here as far as personnel and lineup construction, but in fairness to Dusty I think he's handled our two young pitchers (Cueto and Volquez) very well so far, which is completely contrary to anything his critics have predicted.

Stormy
04-22-2008, 12:58 AM
No argument here as far as personnel and lineup construction, but in fairness to Dusty I think he's handled our two young pitchers (Cueto and Volquez) very well so far, which is completely contrary to anything the national media has predicted.

Very true. That's his most important capacity, and he's been perfect in that regard.

Tony Cloninger
04-22-2008, 01:25 AM
So Dusty is a slump inducer? He is the cause of these players struggling?

All i see...no matter when or where in the order...is a bunch of hitters who cannot hit with runners in scoring position. No problem hitting with nobody on...but bring someone up with a chance to blow open a game and they do nothing.

SteelSD
04-22-2008, 02:10 AM
So Dusty is a slump inducer? He is the cause of these players struggling?

All i see...no matter when or where in the order...is a bunch of hitters who cannot hit with runners in scoring position. No problem hitting with nobody on...but bring someone up with a chance to blow open a game and they do nothing.

2008 Reds w/None On: .227 BA/.316 OBP/.367 SLG

2008 Reds w/Runners On: .266 BA/.344 OBP/.434 SLG

2008 Reds w/RISP: .250 BA/.337 OBP/.401 SLG

Prior to today, that RISP OPS is slightly above (by .005) current NL Team Average and the performance with Runners On is decidedly above-average.

Here's how the Reds fare by lineup position thusfar (excluding today's game):

#1: .278 OBP/.418 SLG
#2: .337 OBP/.444 SLG
#3: .318 OBP/.408 SLG
#4: .305 OBP/.351 SLG
#5: .450 OBP/.431 SLG
#6: .354 OBP/.354 SLG
#7: .329 OBP/.569 SLG
#8: .373 OBP/.433 SLG

Dusty's been running out some great lineups...if they were put together backwards. There's a reason you don't want to position poor OBP options at points in the lineup where they're likely to lead off a lot of Innings (see: Leadoff). Here's what the Reds have received thusfar from the speedy trio of Patterson, Hopper, and Freel with no one on:

Patterson: 37 PA- .216 OBP
Hopper: 17 PA- .294 OBP
Freel: 20 PA- .250 OBP

To be fair, that's not actually leading off an Inning though. Here's what we have in that situation:

Patterson: 23 AB- .200 OBP
Hopper: 9 AB- .300 OBP
Freel: 8 AB- .250 OBP

Great. It's actually worse. And then we have Brandon Phillips (who's not a high-OBP player) hitting for a good portion of the season in the four slot. With the OBP-drains hitting in the one slot, he's likely going to be leading off a lot of Innings:

Phillips: 19 AB- .318 OBP

Yep. And now he's in the 2-slot with OBP-drains directly ahead of him. Here his is with no one on:

Phillips: 39 AB- .238 OBP

When you put a guy who isn't likely to get on base directly behind guys who aren't getting on base while the latter are at the top of the lineup, it compounds the issue. Baker simply can't construct a proper lineup. It's something he's never been able to do.

fearofpopvol1
04-22-2008, 02:16 AM
I've said it many times in the past and will say it again, I'd like to see them try Votto leading off. He has a hot bat right now and who wouldn't like him leading off over Patterson?

WMR
04-22-2008, 02:25 AM
2008 Reds w/None On: .227 BA/.316 OBP/.367 SLG

2008 Reds w/Runners On: .266 BA/.344 OBP/.434 SLG

2008 Reds w/RISP: .250 BA/.337 OBP/.401 SLG

Prior to today, that RISP OPS is slightly above (by .005) current NL Team Average and the performance with Runners On is decidedly above-average.

Here's how the Reds fare by lineup position thusfar (excluding today's game):

#1: .278 OBP/.418 SLG
#2: .337 OBP/.444 SLG
#3: .318 OBP/.408 SLG
#4: .305 OBP/.351 SLG
#5: .450 OBP/.431 SLG
#6: .354 OBP/.354 SLG
#7: .329 OBP/.569 SLG
#8: .373 OBP/.433 SLG

Dusty's been running out some great lineups...if they were put together backwards. There's a reason you don't want to position poor OBP options at points in the lineup where they're likely to lead off a lot of Innings (see: Leadoff). Here's what the Reds have received thusfar from the speedy trio of Patterson, Hopper, and Freel with no one on:

Patterson: 37 PA- .216 OBP
Hopper: 17 PA- .294 OBP
Freel: 20 PA- .250 OBP

To be fair, that's not actually leading off an Inning though. Here's what we have in that situation:

Patterson: 23 AB- .200 OBP
Hopper: 9 AB- .300 OBP
Freel: 8 AB- .250 OBP

Great. It's actually worse. And then we have Brandon Phillips (who's not a high-OBP player) hitting for a good portion of the season in the four slot. With the OBP-drains hitting in the one slot, he's likely going to be leading off a lot of Innings:

Phillips: 19 AB- .318 OBP

Yep. And now he's in the 2-slot with OBP-drains directly ahead of him. Here his is with no one on:

Phillips: 39 AB- .238 OBP

When you put a guy who isn't likely to get on base directly behind guys who aren't getting on base while the latter are at the top of the lineup, it compounds the issue. Baker simply can't construct a proper lineup. It's something he's never been able to do.

Can someone PLEASE hand deliver this to Dusty @ GABP?

You might need to include a definition for OBP, however. :(

SteelSD
04-22-2008, 02:40 AM
Can someone PLEASE hand deliver this to Dusty @ GABP?

You might need to include a definition for OBP, however. :(

Eh, Baker knows what OBP is. He just refuses to consider that it trumps having low-OBP fast guys at the top of the lineup who allegedly "create things". And when his initial plan doesn't result in scoring a lot of Runs what does he do? He puts MORE fast guys who don't get on base at the top of the lineup.

It's like he's trying to fix a slashed right wrist by cutting the other one.

Ron Madden
04-22-2008, 04:14 AM
Freel and Phillips belong nowhere near 1-2.

Freel should be batting 8th, and Phillips 6th.

Yep, Seems like Dusty likes to stack all of the fast outs at the top of the batting order. :(

RedsBaron
04-22-2008, 07:58 AM
1. Keppinger
2. Votto
3. Dunn
4. Encarnacion
5. Griffey
6. Phillips
7. Bako
8. Whoever is playing CF unless his name is Jay Bruce

I like it, only I would have Bruce playing CF.
If Corey Patterson had a track record of productive hitting, I could understand Baker having the attitude of he will come around and start hitting. Patterson has a career OBP of .297 and, at age 28, he is highly umlikely to ever develop into a quality major league hitter. No way should a competent major league manager have Patterson batting leadoff, ever.

REDREAD
04-22-2008, 10:09 AM
I didn't know how right you are until I just read the following.



And Baker can't be handed some of the blame ? I think so.


Obviously Dusty did know that Patterson was struggling, but he was trying to spin some of the positive things Corey has done. Patterson got two walks in his last start, and he's putting the ball in play. Dusty is saying Corey will be alright. Now, maybe Dusty's wrong, but he doesn't want to say "Yeah, Patterson is off to a stinky start" to the press.

Dusty knows Patterson's BA and OBP. I know people want to believe Dusty is an idiot, but he's not.

REDREAD
04-22-2008, 10:14 AM
No argument here as far as personnel and lineup construction, but in fairness to Dusty I think he's handled our two young pitchers (Cueto and Volquez) very well so far, which is completely contrary to anything his critics have predicted.

I think he's doing an excellent job with the young relievers (Burton and Coffey) as well.

His patience with EdE is starting to pay off as well. Dusty avoided the temptation to constantly jerk EdE in and out of the lineup.
Votto seems to be thriving under him as well.
Not to mention, Dusty's decision to give Bako the bulk of playing time is paying dividends as well. Pete Mac was a big Valentine fan.

I think Dusty is doing a good job. Who knows, maybe even his faith in Patterson is justified, and Dusty is thinking beyond his last 21 at bats?

RedsBaron
04-22-2008, 10:21 AM
I think Dusty is doing a good job. Who knows, maybe even his faith in Patterson is justified, and Dusty is thinking beyond his last 21 at bats?

Baker has done some things right, but I wish he would think beyond Patterson's last 21 at bats and consider the 3160 at bats he has had in his careeer that have produced an OBP of .297.

Tony Cloninger
04-22-2008, 11:32 AM
I never said they were great lineups. :D

RedlegJake
04-22-2008, 11:34 AM
Eh, Baker knows what OBP is. He just refuses to consider that it trumps having low-OBP fast guys at the top of the lineup who allegedly "create things". And when his initial plan doesn't result in scoring a lot of Runs what does he do? He puts MORE fast guys who don't get on base at the top of the lineup.

It's like he's trying to fix a slashed right wrist by cutting the other one.

Definition of insanity.

REDREAD
04-22-2008, 11:52 AM
Baker has done some things right, but I wish he would think beyond Patterson's last 21 at bats and consider the 3160 at bats he has had in his careeer that have produced an OBP of .297.

But Patterson has changed his hitting style. He's putting the ball in play much more, and striking out less. So far, in a small sample size, the results have been mixed. Corey was on fire for the first week in the season and has been in a bad slump since. Patterson also walked twice on Sunday (I believe), so there is some hope.

Like Phillips, I wonder if Dusty is deliberately batting Patterson at the top of the order in order to emphasize the importance of getting on base and putting the ball in play as opposed to swinging for the fences. Perhaps Dusty's thinking is a little more longterm than optimizing the lineup for a given day.

Spring~Fields
04-22-2008, 11:53 AM
Obviously Dusty did know that Patterson was struggling, but he was trying to spin some of the positive things Corey has done. Patterson got two walks in his last start, and he's putting the ball in play. Dusty is saying Corey will be alright. Now, maybe Dusty's wrong, but he doesn't want to say "Yeah, Patterson is off to a stinky start" to the press.

Dusty knows Patterson's BA and OBP. I know people want to believe Dusty is an idiot, but he's not.

I don’t think that anyone is calling or thinking that Baker is an idiot. I do think that they are challenging what appears to be Baker’s resistance to deal with what is obvious to them and others.

Examples of the obvious might be that Corey Patterson had a history before he came to the Reds, some might question why he was brought in to begin with to lead off when his performance numbers indicate that another would better serve in that role.

The obvious would be that Corey Patterson not only has a past history but a recent/present history of being poor in the role of leadoff and clearly should be down in the batting order until he is “fine”, if that day ever comes. It might be obvious to some that Patterson bats left handed and struggles against the left handed pitchers, when the Reds are bloated with left handed bats.

Another obvious to some might be that Phillips is not a cleanup hitter. A young man that came to the Reds with skills and a reputation for falling in love with the home run ball instead of hitting to all fields, doubles, singles and working walks along with homeruns that come with the development of good hitting skills.

Another obvious might be that Dunn is not getting pitches to hit, yet he has a fine ability to work a walk and to get on base a lot, and that with his situation it would be obvious to move him up in the order to take advantage of what the other side is giving the Reds.

Others can fill in the obvious for themselves.

But it is clear to me that Baker is no idiot, a manipulative politician maybe when dealing with the gms and press.

Clearly Baker can see the obvious that he chooses to. He saw that Fogg had a history, he saw the obvious that Fogg’s performances fit his history, and he took proactive corrective action.

I just find it surreal that he delays to act when he sees Patterson, Phillips and Dunn’s situation and the effects on runs and runners left on base. Not to mention that Keppinger handles the bat pretty well and gets on base, surely he is the leadoff batter if you only have a choice between Patterson and Keppinger.

As far as Baker saying the correct and right things about his players that is correct. If he wants to build people up, provide a leadership style that brings out the best in people he has to find things that they are doing right and build upon those. Yet one can’t help to think that he might be contradicting his own styles in action by putting Patterson or Phillips in roles where they won’t succeed to the degree that they are potentially able to.

bucksfan2
04-22-2008, 12:03 PM
I don't understand why people want Keppy hitting #1 or 2 right now. He is the only guy who is consistantly putting the ball in play. I drop him in the 4 or 5 hole right now. Dunn is not putting the ball in play nor are the pepole right behind him. It does the reds no good for Dunn to walk but be stranded at first base. If you drop Keppy behind him Dunn probably will get better pitches to hit as well as score more runs. Keppy isn't your ideal power hitter but the guy hits line drives and puts the ball in play all the time. I would set my lineup this way.

1. Voto
2. Dunn
3. Keppy
4. Griffey
5. Encarnacion
6. Phillips
7. Patterson
8. Bako
4.

Spring~Fields
04-22-2008, 12:32 PM
I don't understand why people want Keppy hitting #1 or 2 right now. He is the only guy who is consistantly putting the ball in play. I drop him in the 4 or 5 hole right now. Dunn is not putting the ball in play nor are the pepole right behind him. It does the reds no good for Dunn to walk but be stranded at first base. If you drop Keppy behind him Dunn probably will get better pitches to hit as well as score more runs. Keppy isn't your ideal power hitter but the guy hits line drives and puts the ball in play all the time. I would set my lineup this way.

1. Voto
2. Dunn
3. Keppy
4. Griffey
5. Encarnacion
6. Phillips
7. Patterson
8. Bako
4.

Some of the positive hitting attributes that you have listed is why I would lean toward putting Keppinger at leadoff at this time over a choice of Freel, Patterson or Hopper, et el.

A. “He is the only guy who is consistently putting the ball in play.”

B. “Keppy isn't your ideal power hitter but the guy hits line drives and puts the ball in play all the time.”

Keppinger hitting or walking his way on base followed by Dunn a man that the opposition won’t give anything to hit but does walk a lot would fit the objective/goal of getting men on base for others to drive in. Those two get on base more often than the others so we want them getting more AB in a strategically manner.

It is a game of adjustments, the opposing team has countered by walking Dunn, so the Reds need to adjust and put Dunn in the two hole to accent his skill set to their advantage. Dunn may also get a better pitch choice to hit more home runs etc. since it would be harder on the opposition to walk him and give the following batters a chance to drive him in with a home run etc.

Ideally one might want a Lou Brock at leadoff a hitter with bat skills and speed. The Reds don’t have a speed merchant that can hit. So they have to adjust and adapt, while going with a player that can utilize bat skills.

Griffey, Votto, Encarcion are the players to drive in the base runners since the opposition are taking the bat out of Dunn’s hands by junk balling him to death, those three can also get on base in other ways as they are what I would call more multi-dimensional hitters.

Keppinger - for some of the reasons you listed and others
Dunn - for the reason you listed
Encarcion - to see better pitches, he also walks and drives runners in with power
Votto - Not fully realized yet we see some of what he is cable of.
Griffey - Is already well noted
Phillips -
Patterson - since they resist Bruce at this time.
Bako

REDREAD
04-22-2008, 12:50 PM
I don’t think that anyone is calling or thinking that Baker is an idiot. I do think that they are challenging what appears to be Baker’s resistance to deal with what is obvious to them and others.

Actually, on this very thread, people are calling him an idiot.
Other people are dismayed, saying "How could he possiblly not know that Patterson is 0 for whatever"..

I agree that Dusty may not be doing the optimal lineup according to some lineup theories. I don't think it's the primary reason why this team is in a funk though. The Markov analysis showed Dusty's lineup was fine. Other analysis methods showed it is horrible. That kind of underscores that theorizing the ideal lineup is largely theory. In fact, I think it was James that said that lineup order really doesn't matter that much anyhow over the course of the season. (If it wasn't James, it was someone respected in stat circles).. So we have the full gamut of opinions.



Examples of the obvious might be that Corey Patterson had a history before he came to the Reds, some might question why he was brought in to begin with to lead off when his performance numbers indicate that another would better serve in that role.

Patterson is OBP challenged but brings speed and decent power.
IMO, it's not cut and dried that he's killing us batting leadoff. He carried the team for the first week out of the leadoff slot. Obviously, he's going to have hot and cold spells.




It might be obvious to some that Patterson bats left handed and struggles against the left handed pitchers, when the Reds are bloated with left handed bats.

Dusty has started Freel against several LH pitchers. Dusty started Freel last night, and it doesn't seem to matter.




Another obvious to some might be that Phillips is not a cleanup hitter. A young man that came to the Reds with skills and a reputation for falling in love with the home run ball instead of hitting to all fields, doubles, singles and working walks along with homeruns that come with the development of good hitting skills.


And Dusty has been trying Phillips in the #2 hole. He is trying different things.
Truth be told, this team is lacking bats. No matter how you shuffle the lineup, there's going to be glaring holes.




Another obvious might be that Dunn is not getting pitches to hit, yet he has a fine ability to work a walk and to get on base a lot, and that with his situation it would be obvious to move him up in the order to take advantage of what the other side is giving the Reds.


And Dusty is putting high BA players like Kepp and Votto behind him, to hopefully drive Dunn in.





But it is clear to me that Baker is no idiot, a manipulative politician maybe when dealing with the gms and press.

Manipulative is a strong word, Imo. Aren't you glad that he spoke up about Stanton? We are so used to having a manager that is a puppet of the GM and is only allowed to say "yes sir".. I'm glad Dusty speaks his mind. The Reds need his input.




Clearly Baker can see the obvious that he chooses to. He saw that Fogg had a history, he saw the obvious that Fogg’s performances fit his history, and he took proactive corrective action.


But he's also seeing what you cricize him for. Patterson is not playing every day. Phillips lineup position changed. Dusty is attempting to put hitters behind Dunn to drive Dunn in.




I just find it surreal that he delays to act when he sees Patterson, Phillips and Dunn’s situation and the effects on runs and runners left on base.


Isn't it worthwhile to give a change a few days to see if it works? Dusty is still learning his personel. Not to mention that jerking around players too much is deterimental to performance as well. He's got humans to manage. Humans with feelings, who's emotional state affects their perfromance. He's trying to reverse a culture of losing. He's done a great job handling the young players, IMO.





Not to mention that Keppinger handles the bat pretty well and gets on base, surely he is the leadoff batter if you only have a choice between Patterson and Keppinger.


But nothing is free. If you batt Kepp leadoff, what's the RH bat behind Dunn to drive him in? There's a shortage of bats on this team.




As far as Baker saying the correct and right things about his players that is correct. If he wants to build people up, provide a leadership style that brings out the best in people he has to find things that they are doing right and build upon those. Yet one can’t help to think that he might be contradicting his own styles in action by putting Patterson or Phillips in roles where they won’t succeed to the degree that they are potentially able to.

Sometimes it's good management to give people a goal and the opportunity to reach it. Some people respond to the challenge. Dusty can tell Phillipls he wants him to focus on getting on base more, and that he's putting him in the #2 slot because it's important there. Maybe Phillips responds to the challenge, maybe he doesn't, but it gives Dusty a chance to evaluate his personel. And let's face it, we are not going to contend this year, so let Dusty evaluate the players as he sees fit, IMO. If those 2-3 spot starts that Castro got convinced Dusty that it was time for Castro to go, they were well worth it. Because I'm pretty sure Wayne wanted to keep Castro all season, because Castro is such a "Great guy".. I'm 99% sure that Dusty applied some pressure to get Castro out and Harrison in, just as he applied pressure to get Stanton out. Wayne's mode of operation would've been to keep Stanton around until June/July, just to make sure he was washed up.

bucksfan2
04-22-2008, 12:54 PM
Some of the positive hitting attributes that you have listed is why I would lean toward putting Keppinger at leadoff at this time over a choice of Freel, Patterson or Hopper, et el.

A. “He is the only guy who is consistently putting the ball in play.”

B. “Keppy isn't your ideal power hitter but the guy hits line drives and puts the ball in play all the time.”

Keppinger hitting or walking his way on base followed by Dunn a man that the opposition won’t give anything to hit but does walk a lot would fit the objective/goal of getting men on base for others to drive in. Those two get on base more often than the others so we want them getting more AB in a strategically manner.

It is a game of adjustments, the opposing team has countered by walking Dunn, so the Reds need to adjust and put Dunn in the two hole to accent his skill set to their advantage. Dunn may also get a better pitch choice to hit more home runs etc. since it would be harder on the opposition to walk him and give the following batters a chance to drive him in with a home run etc.

Ideally one might want a Lou Brock at leadoff a hitter with bat skills and speed. The Reds don’t have a speed merchant that can hit. So they have to adjust and adapt, while going with a player that can utilize bat skills.

Griffey, Votto, Encarcion are the players to drive in the base runners since the opposition are taking the bat out of Dunn’s hands by junk balling him to death, those three can also get on base in other ways as they are what I would call more multi-dimensional hitters.

Keppinger - for some of the reasons you listed and others
Dunn - for the reason you listed
Encarcion - to see better pitches, he also walks and drives runners in with power
Votto - Not fully realized yet we see some of what he is cable of.
Griffey - Is already well noted
Phillips -
Patterson - since they resist Bruce at this time.
Bako

Here is my thing. As of right now the likes of Dunn, Jr, Encarnacion, Votto, and Phillips aren't driving in runs. The reds are struggling to drive in runs but guys like EE and Dunn are getting on base. I slot Keppy down farther because he has an AVG driven OBP. He doesn't walk a whole lot and will put the ball in play a whole lot. I think the problem with the reds so far this season is that their OBP may be ok but it isn't producing any runs. Adam Dunn is almost to paitent of a hitter to hit lower in the lineup and his ability to take a walk should warrent him a higher slot in the order. I want a guy in a run producing slot who is going to hit. Right now the way the reds are going Keppy is going to hit and Dunn is going to walk. The key is to maximize those two. (Granted this is only one small problem or solution but it is a start)

Spring~Fields
04-22-2008, 02:22 PM
Actually, on this very thread, people are calling him an idiot.
Other people are dismayed, saying "How could he possiblly not know that Patterson is 0 for whatever"..

I took note of the earlier use of the term “idiot”. I just did not infer or interpret that the poster meant that literally. Rather as an expression or reflection of being exasperated or of being perplexed by the report that Dusty was unaware of Patterson’s performance.


I don't think it's the primary reason why this team is in a funk though. The Markov analysis showed Dusty's lineup was fine. Other analysis methods showed it is horrible. That kind of underscores that theorizing the ideal lineup is largely theory. In fact, I think it was James that said that lineup order really doesn't matter that much anyhow over the course of the season. (If it wasn't James, it was someone respected in stat circles).. So we have the full gamut of opinions.

Because there is some good and some bad in his lineups.

It is not the total and complete reason for this teams funk, but
it does contribute to the “funk” of this team, since the lineup is a function of the manager it is something that Dusty can correct to reduce the funk and induce a better performance. It is something that Dusty can control or attempt to affect until he can get upgrades over time.

I don’t think that James would leadoff the pitcher and then hit the weak hitting catcher second and a Castro type third in the order. So I don’t think that James meant that just any ole lineup is fine because it doesn’t matter anyway. I think that James would assume that a manager would place his best first to a descending order based on some objective statistical analysis, and that after that the lineup would be optimized in a manner that the order would not really matter after objectively placing them in the order. I assume that if he focused on the Reds present situation that he would hit Keppinger and Dunn one-two, and not force the issue with Patterson leading off or a Phillips hitting cleanup.


Patterson is OBP challenged but brings speed and decent power.
IMO, it's not cut and dried that he's killing us batting leadoff. He carried the team for the first week out of the leadoff slot. Obviously, he's going to have hot and cold spells.

I don’t think that any of us could say that “he’s killing us” in an absolute sense. I do think that we could say that Patterson and his skill set do not address adequately the leadoff position. The Reds need to utilize a player that will produce a better outcome with those additional AB or PA over Patterson. Dusty knows that.


Dusty has started Freel against several LH pitchers. Dusty started Freel last night, and it doesn't seem to matter.

On a given day it might not matter who they put where as you have suggested, baseball is situational in any given day or any given inning.

Freel who has not seen regular playing time may be akin to a bench player expected to come through as a pinch hitter, and we know that is reported as being difficult vs. a player who has seen frequent live pitching. I would expect Hopper or Freel to be at a disadvantage over Patterson, yet, Patterson’s numbers indicated that he has had more playing time and produced less than they have in the given opportunities.


And Dusty has been trying Phillips in the #2 hole. He is trying different things.
Truth be told, this team is lacking bats. No matter how you shuffle the lineup, there's going to be glaring holes.

Yes Dusty has tried some different moves, yet we all know the term “small sample” since Dusty has not given very much time to Keppinger leading off, or in your example Phillips batting second we really don’t know that those ideas would fail. Doesn’t Dusty need to be consistent when trying different ideas? Wouldn’t Dusty be better served to give his new ideas or attempts at change the same amount of time that he gave or is giving Patterson at leadoff? I submit that we know what the Patterson theory accomplished but have yet to see what the other changes might produce because Dusty has not given them enough time to manifest.



And Dusty is putting high BA players like Kepp and Votto behind him, to hopefully drive Dunn in.

You’re right that is something to consider. Dunn hitting down there can become the number one or two batter coming up in the next inning with people behind him to cause him to receive a better pitch choice or to walk and be driven in.


Manipulative is a strong word, Imo. Aren't you glad that he spoke up about Stanton? We are so used to having a manager that is a puppet of the GM and is only allowed to say "yes sir".. I'm glad Dusty speaks his mind. The Reds need his input.

Manipulation is a term that is used in achieving goals and objectives. Not in the sense of taking advantage of another for self serving reasons, but to manipulate the pieces tangible and intangible to obtain the goal or objective for the greater whole.

Yes I am glad that Dusty influences a change in pitching fodder or position players that have shown that they won’t serve to achieve the stated goals of the organization. But I am disappointed that he is staying so long with Patterson at leadoff at this time, Patterson might be the hot ticket later, but he is not at the present.


Isn't it worthwhile to give a change a few days to see if it works? Dusty is still learning his personnel. Not to mention that jerking around players too much is detrimental to performance as well. He's got humans to manage. Humans with feelings, who's emotional state affects their performance. He's trying to reverse a culture of losing. He's done a great job handling the young players, IMO.

Certainly agree with you here that suggests human interaction with the objective of motivating them to achieve the best that they might be.

With the mechanical exception of handling his young players in the lineup. Easing Votto in yes, Phillips, Encarcion no. I think that Encarcion should have been hitting third while going through his adjustments to begin with. I think that Encarcion should be hitting behind Dunn higher up in the order. I believe that Votto is now ready to move up in the lineup and that Dusty was correct to ease Votto in especially considering his slow start. Phillips I don’t think that Dusty looked at the big picture with him, I think that Dusty saw right handed power and did not take into account that Phillips gets into bad habits and away from sound hitting principles going for the glory ball over the fence. Automatically placing Griffey third in the lineup is questionable because of declining skills, and that it doesn’t give Griffey a chance to protect other batters such as Dunn or Encarcion.


Sometimes it's good management to give people a goal and the opportunity to reach it. Some people respond to the challenge. Dusty can tell Phillips he wants him to focus on getting on base more, and that he's putting him in the #2 slot because it's important there. Maybe Phillips responds to the challenge, maybe he doesn't, but it gives Dusty a chance to evaluate his personnel.

Yes


And let's face it, we are not going to contend this year,

I don’t know that yet. The unknown can happen, and the Reds could still contend. One of the reasons I want Bruce up and playing everyday is to push the percentage or possibility of success upward. Bruce and Votto can hit for average and power which might swing the team from loser to winner when coupled with a better bullpen and if the young Cueto and Volquez continue to improve throughout the season. I visualize that Bruce and Votto can help Griffey, Dunn, Encarcion, Keppinger and Phillips more than Freel, Patterson, Hopper or Hatteburg a can. That they can help the RS vs. RA and take some pressure off the pitchers to be perfect over season as an aggregate.

I certainly believe that Dusty and the Reds can put a better product on the field this year.


I'm 99% sure that Dusty applied some pressure to get Castro out and Harrison in, just as he applied pressure to get Stanton out. Wayne's mode of operation would've been to keep Stanton around until June/July, just to make sure he was washed up.

See applied pressure is manipulation. Of course that is also what one has to do to achieve a higher purpose at times if they are in disagreement, (they Dusty and Krivsky). I think that some of that is going on. I think we saw that when Bruce was the ticket in spring training, and all of a sudden Patterson snuck in the backdoor. I believe that was some compromise of some sort, though ill advised.


You’re making me work and think, that usually gets me in trouble because lengthy communications is not something that I do well. I usually try to avoid these, I hope that I didn’t muck it up to much, but I did think that your comments and thoughts were interesting and productive so I wanted to try to respond.

Spring~Fields
04-22-2008, 02:54 PM
Here is my thing. As of right now the likes of Dunn, Jr, Encarnacion, Votto, and Phillips aren't driving in runs. The reds are struggling to drive in runs but guys like EE and Dunn are getting on base. I slot Keppy down farther because he has an AVG driven OBP. He doesn't walk a whole lot and will put the ball in play a whole lot. I think the problem with the reds so far this season is that their OBP may be ok but it isn't producing any runs. Adam Dunn is almost to paitent of a hitter to hit lower in the lineup and his ability to take a walk should warrent him a higher slot in the order. I want a guy in a run producing slot who is going to hit. Right now the way the reds are going Keppy is going to hit and Dunn is going to walk. The key is to maximize those two. (Granted this is only one small problem or solution but it is a start)

I think that we and others are saying the like or similiar thing with a slight difference in application.

Highlifeman21
04-23-2008, 08:18 AM
The lineup construction won't improve from or with The Dusty until he has better players.

Bruce, Dunn, EE, Keppinger and BP are the only guys I think could play for any team in the league and start. I haven't seen enough from Votto yet to get a vibe on him.

For 2009 we'll need at least 1 OF (maybe more if the Reds decided to torpedo the franchise and move Dunn). Bako and Ross aren't offensive juggernauts by any stretch of the imagination, but they bring defense and handling the pitching staff to the equation, which could possibly negate their lack of offensive production. Patterson is similar in the fact that I wouldn't count on him for substantial offensive production, but his glove and his D is keeping him in the lineup, and we haven't seen CF D this good since Mike Cameron.

If we're going to sacrifice offense in favor of D from our CF and our C, then our #1 priority heading into 2009 needs to be to find another masher (preferably a RHB) to plug into 1B, or to plug into the OF (in hopes that The Dusty can coax Dunn to finally move to 1B).

Bottomline, we're not going to solve offensive woes with players in our organization. It's time to either go get some offense via trade, or wait until FA and overpay.

edabbs44
04-23-2008, 09:00 AM
Bruce, Dunn, EE, Keppinger and BP are the only guys I think could play for any team in the league and start. I haven't seen enough from Votto yet to get a vibe on him.

Really? You think all of these guys could walk into any clubhouse in baseball and start right now?

Really?

Spring~Fields
04-23-2008, 11:06 AM
Subject "Amazingly Bad Lineup Construction"

More of the obvious

Anyone troubled that Dusty all of a sudden had a revelation yesterday and put a hot hitting right handed Hairston at leadoff yesterday and the press is blowing his horn for making the right choice?

While on the other hand we have had to endure a struggling team and his love for Patterson at leadoff during a 0-22 slump and just one hit in his past 29 at-bats.

Dusty has had the hot hitting right handed Keppinger who could have been leading off, adding the type of spark that Hairston did last night. In addition Hairston has been available to Dusty right out of spring training.

"He had a great game tonight," Baker said. "Most of the time if you're hot in one place, you're going to be hot everywhere."

Dusty I think that Keppinger could have been hot everywhere too, especially in the leadoff and you had him the whole time. Seems like lost opportunity to me.

Don't get me wrong, I am very happy that Hairston had a great game and contributed though I can’t help but think that many on this board quite some time ago were calling for a Keppinger to hit leadoff believing that he could be or could’ve been providing the same throughout many games that have come and gone while we watched the prolonged Patterson theory fail at leadoff.

BRM
04-23-2008, 11:11 AM
Keppinger isn't fast nor does he play CF. He simply isn't a good fit to hit leadoff for Dusty Baker. On that note, how about Hairston!! Let's hope he gets 4 hits every game.

:beerme:

Spring~Fields
04-23-2008, 11:14 AM
The lineup construction won't improve from or with The Dusty until he has better players.

Bruce, Dunn, EE, Keppinger and BP are the only guys I think could play for any team in the league and start.

That suggests to me that there are many players on this team that no other team would want or allow them to play on their team. So why are they on the Reds team? Who evaluated these players that no one would want, out of spring training? If you are correct you are also saying that the Reds don't have a solution in CF even though they have what Freel, Hopper, Patterson and Hairston now, that's 4 centerfielders and none of them are good enough, though one Jay Bruce sits in AAA reproducing the same numbers that he has all along.

Spring~Fields
04-23-2008, 11:17 AM
Keppinger isn't fast nor does he play CF. He simply isn't a good fit to hit leadoff for Dusty Baker. On that note, how about Hairston!! Let's hope he gets 4 hits every game.

:beerme:

I'll take four hits every game. :)

Maybe Hairston did so well last night because he had Keppinger providing protection behind him? Never worked for Patterson though. :D