PDA

View Full Version : Dunn batting 2nd - another look.



texasdave
04-22-2008, 02:31 PM
A number of recent posts have touted the advantages of batting Adam Dunn second. The main thrust of these posts is that the Reds should take advantage of what Adam Dunn does best. Walking is one of the things that Dunn excels in, so plug him into a position where that would be an asset - namely batting second. Batting him in front of the 6 and 7 hitters is not optimal usage of his skills. It would be more beneficial if he was on in front of the 3 and 4 hitters. A secondary point being made is that by giving AD some protection he will get better pitches to hit. Sounds logical. But is it really?

With the help of an article by Tangotiger (published in Hardball Times) let's attempt to find out. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-around-batters/ Here is the article in its entirety for those who want to read it. I will cherry-pick, err, I mean quote the parts that are relevant. :D

If one assumes that Adam will see better pitches batting second, then one also assumes that Dunn is being 'nibbled' to death in the 5 hole. But does all this 'nibbling' negatively affect AD as a hitter? This is what Tango has to say about it.
However, what we hoped to find was that, when pitchers pitch around the corners, batters tend to make worse contact (if they make contact at all). And we don't see this. Instead, we again find that, if walks are ignored, the two types of hitters perform equivalently in wOBA. (The slight increase in strikeouts is compensated by a slight increase in the fraction of balls hit well when contact is made.) In other words, if walks are ignored, there is no negative effect on a batter's hitting when being 'nibbled'. One might counter that even if one accepts that as fact, AD will benefit by being pitched to instead of being pitched around. Will he? The same study reaches this conclusion.
The entire point of protecting a batter is to improve his offensive output (wOBA) by forcing the opposing pitcher to pitch to him. And indeed, we saw above that opposing pitchers pitch to protected hitters, something that is evidenced by the fewer walks. However, when the ball is put into play, we see no significant difference between how the two sets of hitters perform. If I read this correctly AD will be pitched to more often. He will see more hittable pitches. But his output when putting the ball into play will not improve to any measurable degree. Indeed, it may drop. And he will also see his walk total drop. Adam Dunn's lifetime OPS when putting the ball into play is roughly .770. A walk is an OPS of 1.000. Putting one plus one together we might logically expect Adam Dunn to be a less effective offensive weapon. By moving from 5th to 2nd in the lineup, AD will be trading one of his chief skills (drawing a walk - OPS 1.000), with one of his chief drawbacks (putting the bat on the ball - OPS .770). ***NOTE*** An OPS of .770 while putting the ball into play is not horrible. It simply is not a good tradeoff for a decrease in walks.

Let's approach this from another angle. This angle would assume that there is no such thing as batter protection. This conclusion was reached by reasoning that if AD is moved into the 2nd spot in the lineup he would drag all his walks with him. Since he is a selective hitter and he is walking just as often then it seems logical that he must not being seeing better pitches by being protected. But the Tangotiger study, based on thousands of at-bats refutes such a contention. The batter will see better pitches and will walk less.

Indeed we do see this with AD. His career BB rate while overall is 16.7%. His career BB rate while batting second is 13.7%. So that appears likely to be true. Dunn's walk rate if plugged into the 2nd spot in the lineup is likely to drop.

Now let's apply this his 2007 stats. If his BB rate drops .03% that would result in approximately 20 less walks. Since he is a .250 career hitter those
20 less walks would yield 5 hits. This would result in 15 less times on base.

Now assume there is a brand new stat called Effective on-base percentage (eOBP). This stat is derived as follows: Times on base minus home runs minus caught stealing divided by plate appearances minus sacrifice flies minus sacrifice hits. Whew. This stat subracts caught stealings for obvious reasons. It also subtracts homers because if you homer you aren't on base for the hitters behind you to drive in. ***NOTE*** I am not anti-rally killer. Rally-killers are a good thing. But the fact remains that rally-killers clear the bases.

The following chart shows how NL batters, Reds' batters and AD would fare in eOBP using 2007. One more quick caveat in a long post: NL teams as well as the Reds generally did not use 40 HR sluggers in the 2nd spot in the lineup and players generally weren't moved up from the 4th or 5th hole to the 2nd hole. Thus their walk totals do not need to be adjusted. AD's walks and hits do need to be adjusted according to the parameters stated above. This seems reasonable to me.



Entity eOBP PA HITS aHITs HR BB aBB HBP SH SF CS
NL 0.312 12009 2987 0 253 935 0 94 151 62 82
REDS 0.331 755 206 0 22 57 0 10 11 6 7
DUNN 0.298 632 138 5 40 101 20 5 0 4 2


The chart shows, using eOBP, that in 2007 AD would have been on base less often, for the hitters behind him to drive in, than both the average NL and the average Reds' 2nd spot hitter. His eOBP would essentially be over 30 points lower than what the Reds received from the hitters who occupied the 2md spot. He would have been on base less for the 3, 4 and 5 hitters to drive in than what the Reds actually received in 2007. From that standpoint he would have been a poorer option.

Maybe my logic got twisted somewhere along the line, but this leads me to believe AD should not be batting second. I will agree that he does not need to be batting 5th. I would bat him 3rd in the following lineup.

Keppinger
Griffey
Dunn
Encarnacion
Votto
Phillips
Patterson
Bako
Pitcher.

Homer Bailey
04-22-2008, 02:38 PM
That's some dense stuff.

Red in Atl
04-22-2008, 02:54 PM
Keppinger
Dunn
Griffey
Encarnacion
Votto
Phillips
Patterson
Bako
Pitcher.

This I like. Give it a shot Dusty!!!

mlbfan30
04-22-2008, 03:10 PM
The eOBP is a stat that sort of punishes a guy for producing the optimal outcome, a HR. It's similar to those people who make up the stat RBI-HR and say Maggs was better than Arod. It's punishing the HR.

Remember, the data from the Tengo piece that are made are averages and not discrete numbers. I don't see any standard deviations in it, which might be a big issue. It's possible Dunn could be an outlier and be 2 or so deviations from the mean. We really don't know.

So while your thought is good, it may or may not apply in this situation. However I think Dunn should be #3 anyway.

Moose Milligan
04-22-2008, 03:12 PM
I like the analysis, but batting Griffey second?

Natty Redlocks
04-22-2008, 03:16 PM
Well, I'D nominate ya if I could; this is just the sort of thing they slobber over in the Big Boy room.

I don't think Dusty is physically capable of writing Dunn's name in the two spot, anyway.

Oh, and I just remembered that I'm pretty sure Dunn's splits batting second are significantly better than anywhere else, FWIW.

bgwilly31
04-22-2008, 03:38 PM
I dont think we'll see griff bat second.
Griff doesnt like to. So it probably wont happen.

But i completely agree with moving DUNN up in the lineup.

EE batting 4th.:confused: Not really feeling that quite yet. He will have to continue to hit when and if we start winning. Right now he is spraying a random hit every game when were down 5+ runs.

mlbfan30
04-22-2008, 04:47 PM
I just read the entire article.... and....

Sorry texasdave, but your entire post was a waste of effort.

Tengo's work was based on IBB, and IBB only.

The article is saying that there is little difference between IBB a hitter and letting them hit. That is, there is... there is little difference than just IBB hitter if a poor batter is on deck, or just nibbling the plate hoping the batter will have a poor swing an make an out.

The article does not apply to Dunn's order in the lineup at all, since the chance of him being IBB 5th, or 2nd, or 3rd, etc is all relatively the same.

Again.. The article deals with ONLY Intentional Walks, and does not apply to Unintentional Walks. It has absolutely zero relation to Dunn's situation

757690
04-22-2008, 04:51 PM
I'd just like to point out that a walk is not an OPS of 1.000, and also .03% is .03 or 3%.

Also, the eOBP is a stat that sort of punishes a guy for producing the optimal outcome, a HR. It's similar to those people who make up the stat RBI-HR and say Maggs was better than Arod. It's punishing the HR.

Remember, the data from the Tengo piece that are made are averages and not discrete numbers. I don't see any standard deviations in it, which might be a big issue. It's possible Dunn could be an outlier and be 2 or so deviations from the mean. We really don't know.

So while your thought is good, it may or may not apply in this situation. However I think Dunn should be #3 anyway.


Excellent analysis. It really is hard to draw any authoritative conclusions from averages and not discrete numbers.

There are plenty of explanations why batters who are nibbled do not hit any differently then when they are not being nibbled. One, and the most plausible one IMHO, is that most batters who are nibbled are great hitters, that is why pitchers nibble them, they are afraid to pitch to them. No one nibbles Castro, Chad Moeller, or Jason Ellison. I think Tango only used good hitters in his analysis, who would be able to hit good pitches, so this really make a lot of sense when you think about it. Good hitters are good because they are consistent and can not be pitched around.

Also, the article was about pitching, not hitting, which is why he was able to use averages. So it really is not fair to draw too many conclusions about any particular hitter. I think that if you wanted to find out how hitters did who were being pitched around, you would have to find a different method, one that gives you discrete numbers on individual hitters.

Anyway, my reasoning for batting Dunn 2 is simply because I want to minimize the number of at bats he gets with men on base. I just don't want to see him up in crucial situations.

mlbfan30
04-22-2008, 05:07 PM
I dont think we'll see griff bat second.
Griff doesnt like to. So it probably wont happen.

But i completely agree with moving DUNN up in the lineup.

EE batting 4th.:confused: Not really feeling that quite yet. He will have to continue to hit when and if we start winning. Right now he is spraying a random hit every game when were down 5+ runs.

EE just has been spraying random hits for the past 11 games with a 11 game hit streak. This reminds me of Arod, when people say he only hits when the game doesn't matter.

Late & Close are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.
In those situations EE has a 1.544 OPS with 3HR and 7 RBI.
In high leverage situations, EE has a 1.407 OPS.
He is about 20th in baseball in WPA, and 1st on the Reds
He leads the Team in BRAA (batting runs above average)
And he's doing this while second on the team in pLI (A player’s average LI for all game events.)
EE has created 6 more runs of offense more than BP in less than a month! That's really amazing. Last year EE was 2nd in BRAA on the team behind Dunn.

Does that sound like his hits don't matter? He's probably the best pure hitter on the team, and should be 4th all the time no matter what. Seriously, take a look at the stats before you say something like that.

mlbfan30
04-22-2008, 05:13 PM
Anyway, my reasoning for batting Dunn 2 is simply because I want to minimize the number of at bats he gets with men on base. I just don't want to see him up in crucial situations.

Which will mean a lot of solo HRs.
Shouldn't we want to maximize the MOB for each Dunn HR? That's my logic for 3rd.

But #2 is obviously the 2nd best spot, and it probably isn't a huge difference. If Dunn is 2nd, then a speedy guy #1 really wouldn't matter at all. Stealing a base just for Dunn to BB is pointless. And a CS isn't worth it when a HR can score the runner from 1st anyway. In this case, Keppenger is probably the best leadoff hitter.

Kepp
Dunn
EE
Griffey
BP
Votto
Patterson
Catcher
Pitcher

In my case with Dunn #3
Votto
Kepp
Dunn
EE
Griffey
BP
Patterson
Catcher
Pitcher

Basically the difference is about 60 more PA for Votto, and about 12-15 less for every other hitter. But this is under the assumption that Votto is a 20-23 HR hitter with strong OBP skills.

If Votto has truly changed his approach thanks to Dusty to be a 25-28HR hitter with a low OBP, then the first lineup is better. A possible Votto/EE flip could be done depending on how real BP's struggles are.

Handofdeath
04-22-2008, 05:22 PM
Well, I'D nominate ya if I could; this is just the sort of thing they slobber over in the Big Boy room.

I don't think Dusty is physically capable of writing Dunn's name in the two spot, anyway.

Oh, and I just remembered that I'm pretty sure Dunn's splits batting second are significantly better than anywhere else, FWIW.

Dunn's numbers are a complete paradox. His career stats batting in the #2 spot are .278/.388/.554 in 392 AB's. That is pretty good but the at-bats equal a little more than half a season there so you must look at in it's proper perspective. One of the interesting things about Dunn is that he has batted at every spot in the order and the results are fascinating. After #2 his best numbers, though small sample size, are at #7 and #9. The thing is batting in those spots is not a option but those numbers do indicate that he might actually be more comfortable as a hitter not batting in the middle of the order. As an organization that would worry me because his skill set, size, and salary pretty much demand that he bats in the middle of the order. There lies the paradox. However his numbers at #4 are .259/.378/.522. That's pretty good but not great. As a manager and an organization are those numbers and his high salary acceptable to the Reds? In the end I think the answer to that is no. The expectation of him with his salary would be that he puts the bat on the ball at a very good rate but he has not shown the ability to do so, outside of his power, consistently and is prone to long batting slumps. His salary also demands that you build a team around him because you can't afford to pay two players with such high salaries. You know that his OBP and his walks are very good and suggest a certain amount of plate discipline but his batting average and strikeouts tell you that his results at the plate are pretty much all or nothing when he puts the bat on the ball. You also must consider why he is not willing, at his size and with his long arms, to swing at balls an inch or two outside of the plate and hit to the opposite field. The OBP indicates that Dunn is a disciplined hitter but the batting average and K's do not. As an organization I could live with the high strikeout numbers if they went along with a decent batting average but I just don't see paying 15 million or more a season as a good idea. Adam Dunn has the bat in his hand for a reason and while his power numbers are very good more often than not he is not producing as a player in his position should be. At the end of the day I think you weigh both sides and have to realize that Dunn's numbers don't entice you enough to pay the kind of salary that MLB's market would demand. In a nutshell, Adam Dunn is not paid to be a #2 hitter.

757690
04-22-2008, 05:25 PM
Which will mean a lot of solo HRs.
Shouldn't we want to maximize the MOB for each Dunn HR? That's my logic for 3rd.

But #2 is obviously the 2nd best spot, and it probably isn't a huge difference. If Dunn is 2nd, then a speedy guy #1 really wouldn't matter at all. Stealing a base just for Dunn to BB is pointless. And a CS isn't worth it when a HR can score the runner from 1st anyway. In this case, Keppenger is probably the best leadoff hitter.

Kepp
Dunn
EE
Griffey
BP
Votto
Patterson
Catcher
Pitcher

In my case with Dunn #3
Votto
Kepp
Dunn
EE
Griffey
BP
Patterson
Catcher
Pitcher

Basically the difference is about 60 more PA for Votto, and about 12-15 less for every other hitter. But this is under the assumption that Votto is a 20-23 HR hitter with strong OBP skills.

If Votto has truly changed his approach thanks to Dusty to be a 25-28HR hitter with a low OBP, then the first lineup is better. A possible Votto/EE flip could be done depending on how real BP's struggles are.


Actually, if Dusty keeps Patterson in the leadoff slot, it won't matter who bats second or third, since no one will be on base.

Fil3232
04-22-2008, 06:07 PM
Anyway, my reasoning for batting Dunn 2 is simply because I want to minimize the number of at bats he gets with men on base. I just don't want to see him up in crucial situations.

Dunn, for his career, has been more productive with runners on than with the bases empty (career .917 OPS with men on base).

Edit: Interestingly enough, Brandon Phillips had a .776 OPS with men on base last year and that was in his breakout year.

Dunn's production and value continue to be underrated and taken for granted.

OUReds
04-22-2008, 06:23 PM
Does that sound like his hits don't matter? He's probably the best pure hitter on the team, and should be 4th all the time no matter what. Seriously, take a look at the stats before you say something like that.

Nice post. Consistently batting Phillips higher in the lineup then EE is the second most disturbing piece of the lineup puzzle to me (second to Patterson batting leadoff of course).

757690
04-22-2008, 06:33 PM
Dunn, for his career, has been more productive with runners on than with the bases empty (career .917 OPS with men on base).

Edit: Interestingly enough, Brandon Phillips had a .776 OPS with men on base last year and that was in his breakout year.

Dunn's production and value continue to be underrated and taken for granted.

His OPS is driven by walks. He has more walks than hits with men on base. I couldn't find anyone else who had that stat.
He has one of the worst hit rates (16%) with men on base. Castro gets more hits per PA with men on base than Dunn. That is why I want him second, where his walks will matter. He is very productive, but more as a setup guy then a run producer.
Walks with men on base are ok, but you want your middle of the lineup guys to get hits there. That is why so many of them are pitched around or IBB, the pitcher would rather they walk than have a chance of a hit.

mlbfan30
04-22-2008, 06:51 PM
I'm going to do a comparison between using Dunn's worst full season. Would everyone agree 2006 was his worst season? I'll compare him to BP, but who else is considered a good hitter for the Reds. EE? Griffey?

Fil3232
04-22-2008, 07:00 PM
I'm going to do a comparison between using Dunn's worst full season. Would everyone agree 2006 was his worst season? I'll compare him to BP, but who else is considered a good hitter for the Reds. EE? Griffey?


Depends on the day...

OUReds
04-22-2008, 07:10 PM
His OPS is driven by walks.

And power, walks and power. The power part being a big portion of what makes him a fine middle of the lineup hitter as well.

Hondo
04-22-2008, 07:21 PM
I hate to keep saying this but if Adam Dunn had a Legit Clean up Hitter Behind him... He would see mroe hittable pitches... So If Batting Him 2nd in front of Griffey is what needs to be done... I am all for it... But why not Bat Phillips Lead Off, Kepp 2nd, Dunn, then Griffey?

mlbfan30
04-22-2008, 08:12 PM
His OPS is driven by walks. He has more walks than hits with men on base. I couldn't find anyone else who had that stat.
He has one of the worst hit rates (16%) with men on base. Castro gets more hits per PA with men on base than Dunn. That is why I want him second, where his walks will matter. He is very productive, but more as a setup guy then a run producer.
Walks with men on base are ok, but you want your middle of the lineup guys to get hits there. That is why so many of them are pitched around or IBB, the pitcher would rather they walk than have a chance of a hit.


This article deals with MOB only

Using Dunns 2006 vs. Phillips 2007
PA AB H HR RBI BB IBB SO GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
299 235 51 17 69 57 12 87 8 .217 .372 .472 .845
337 306 85 11 75 18 4 56 26 .278 .325 .451 .776

So the difference is a .217 VS .278 BA
However.... there is one thing that sticks out, and thats GIDP.

So how much should we weight it? Should it count against AVG or against OBP? Actually it should count against SLG. I'm going to do TB-GDP and re-adjust the SLG%.
Reason: SLG = TB/AB. But a GIDP loses a base a different player would have gained. In fact, GIDP should be weighted more, because a single = 1TB. But without a GIDP, the runner is on 2nd compared to 1st, thus it's easier to score. I could go into BaseRuns, but that's too complicated for now.

(Added EE and Griffey)

AdJSLG
BP - .366
Dunn 06 - .438
EE - .455
Griffey - .425
Dunn 07 - .502
Dunn career - .474
EE career - .435
Griffey career - .518
BP career - .344

New lines -
- BA OBP - SLG OPS
.295 .386 .518 .904 - Griffey - Carrer
.257 .392 .502 .894 - Dunn - 07
.243 .410 .474 .884 - Dunn - Career
.325 .394 .455 .849 - EE - 07
.278 .396 .425 .821 - Griffey - 07
.296 .382 .435 .817 - EE - Career
.217 .372 .438 .810 - Dunn - 06
.278 .325 .366 .691 - BP - 07
.269 .320 .344 .664 - BP - Career


So what? Right. Well this does a few things.
#1 - BP is just not a good hitter. There is no way he should be batting 4th, a place where theoretically a person will hit the most with MOB. He's looking awful in this.
#2 - EE is a very very solid hitter with MOB. He's a much better option for batting 4th compared to BP.
#3 - Dunn can fluctuate a lot. Using the career mark, .884 AdOPS is still solid. Even though his AVG is .243, he puts up the 2nd best AdSLG up there behind Griffey. Would you rather have EE-C or Dunn-C hitting with MOB? It's pretty clear Dunn is better. What he misses in Hits, he makes up in TB. Dunn is the best current MOB hitter on the team.
#4 - Griffey's an amazing hitter career wise, but he's not great anymore. EE is a better hitter with MOB.
#5 - Anyone else you want to see with enough sample size?

Extra Thought
This goes against a lot of what I've been saying, but BP needs to leadoff.
His GIDP are such a rally killer, that he should be batting with the least amount of MOB as possible. Maybe he'll change his approach and take more walks if he leads off? It's possible.

757690
04-22-2008, 11:27 PM
This article deals with MOB only

Using Dunns 2006 vs. Phillips 2007
PA AB H HR RBI BB IBB SO GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
299 235 51 17 69 57 12 87 8 .217 .372 .472 .845
337 306 85 11 75 18 4 56 26 .278 .325 .451 .776

So the difference is a .217 VS .278 BA
However.... there is one thing that sticks out, and thats GIDP.

So how much should we weight it? Should it count against AVG or against OBP? Actually it should count against SLG. I'm going to do TB-GDP and re-adjust the SLG%.
Reason: SLG = TB/AB. But a GIDP loses a base a different player would have gained. In fact, GIDP should be weighted more, because a single = 1TB. But without a GIDP, the runner is on 2nd compared to 1st, thus it's easier to score. I could go into BaseRuns, but that's too complicated for now.

(Added EE and Griffey)

AdJSLG
BP - .366
Dunn 06 - .438
EE - .455
Griffey - .425
Dunn 07 - .502
Dunn career - .474
EE career - .435
Griffey career - .518
BP career - .344

New lines -
- BA OBP - SLG OPS
.295 .386 .518 .904 - Griffey - Carrer
.257 .392 .502 .894 - Dunn - 07
.243 .410 .474 .884 - Dunn - Career
.325 .394 .455 .849 - EE - 07
.278 .396 .425 .821 - Griffey - 07
.296 .382 .435 .817 - EE - Career
.217 .372 .438 .810 - Dunn - 06
.278 .325 .366 .691 - BP - 07
.269 .320 .344 .664 - BP - Career


So what? Right. Well this does a few things.
#1 - BP is just not a good hitter. There is no way he should be batting 4th, a place where theoretically a person will hit the most with MOB. He's looking awful in this.
#2 - EE is a very very solid hitter with MOB. He's a much better option for batting 4th compared to BP.
#3 - Dunn can fluctuate a lot. Using the career mark, .884 AdOPS is still solid. Even though his AVG is .243, he puts up the 2nd best AdSLG up there behind Griffey. Would you rather have EE-C or Dunn-C hitting with MOB? It's pretty clear Dunn is better. What he misses in Hits, he makes up in TB. Dunn is the best current MOB hitter on the team.
#4 - Griffey's an amazing hitter career wise, but he's not great anymore. EE is a better hitter with MOB.
#5 - Anyone else you want to see with enough sample size?

Extra Thought
This goes against a lot of what I've been saying, but BP needs to leadoff.
His GIDP are such a rally killer, that he should be batting with the least amount of MOB as possible. Maybe he'll change his approach and take more walks if he leads off? It's possible.

Great research, job well done. But you completely miss the point on Dunn.

Yes Dunn puts up good numbers in a broad sense, but when you look at the details, he simply does not get the job done with MOB. He either walks or he hits a homer, or he gets an out. That will give you a high OBP , and a high SLG, but that is very, very deceptive.

In SLG, the HR's are worth 4 times as much as single, and twice as much as a double, but they really only are worth much less than that on the field. Hitting a HR with MOB probably results in less than twice as many runs as a single, and just a little bit more that a double. The runs that don't score on the single or double (including the batter himself) will score much more often than one fourth less than with a home run.
So Dunn's SLG is inflated by HR's that don't really produce that many more runs. And his OBP is inflated by walks that produce less runs than hits do. Dunn does not get the hits necessary to be a productive hitter with MOB. I am passionate about this, and I know a lot of people disagree with me, but to be successful with MOB, you need to get hits and lots of them.

Also, adjusting the SLG of a batter because his at bat erases a runner is not really fair. You would then have to adjust every hitter based on whether or not a runner advanced a base because of a hitters AB, and that would really screw things up. And what about patient hitters that let a runner steal second? And how many GIDP were the result of the runner not taking the infielder out at second? You really can't penalize or benefit someone for what happens to another runner, even if it is mostly the batters doing. That is not how stats work. You are on the right track, GIDP does have a big negative effect, maybe you can come up with another stat that measures the effect a hitter has on MOB, in fact, that sounds like an interesting new stat, just don't tie it to other stats like SLG or OBP.


Anyway, I agree with most of your conclusions, BP is not that great of a hitter, he may become one, but he is not now, EE is best in the clutch, Griffey no longer is, we will just have to disagree on Dunn. Hey, maybe Hairston should bat cleanup?

OUReds
04-23-2008, 12:01 AM
So now Dunn's not an ideal middle of the line up hitter because he not only walks too much, but he hits too many HRs as opposed to doubles?

I don't know what to say.

mlbfan30
04-23-2008, 12:28 AM
So now Dunn's not an ideal middle of the line up hitter because he not only walks too much, but he hits too many HRs as opposed to doubles?

I don't know what to say.

He wants middle of the lineup hitters to get more hits.
Say in 2 at bats, in each there's someone on second. He'd rather see 2 singles for 2 RBI, Over 1 out and a HR for 2 RBI. It's the same "production" but he wants more consistent production.

Everytime there's a chance to score, he wants someone with a higher chance to get a hit to drive them in, as oppose to someone who wont get the run across as often per AB, but will score more for each hit.

But sometimes you need those big games to win. Dunn can carry the team by himself for 1 game several times a year. Is that worth less than someone who contributes in more games, but less impact per game?

I'd say a good way to look at this, is WPA.
WPA (win probability added): WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hypothesis:
A consistent player wouldnt have as much -WPA because he would hurt his team less per each PA.
Objective
Figure out if the "hit or miss" players have a better overall WPA despite a high -WPA. Figure out if this type of hitter can be just as, if not more effective than consistent hitters.

Everyone come up with several "consistent" hitters and several "hit or miss" hitters. Let's see if WPA has some type of trend

Here are some rules
1) You can pick the players single season, or just say in the past x years.
2) It's only good for post 2002
3) Must be everyday players. I'll use an arbitrary 550 PA cutoff
4) Try to pick players who are at least all-star caliber otherwise a low WPA might occur just because the hitter isn't very good.

This is not clutch, it's just consistency. For example, a consistent hitter might be someone like Ichiro, or Polanco, Jeter, Pujols, Vlad.
A hit or miss would be players like Dunn, Howard, Sexson, Burrell.

hit or miss does not necessarily mean power, it could be a JJ Hardy last year who got hot then cold.

I'd like around 20-25 from each group to get enough sample size. If there are conflicts then I'll try to use my judgment off game logs.

OUReds
04-23-2008, 02:09 AM
He wants middle of the lineup hitters to get more hits.
Say in 2 at bats, in each there's someone on second. He'd rather see 2 singles for 2 RBI, Over 1 out and a HR for 2 RBI. It's the same "production" but he wants more consistent production.

I completely understand what he he wants.

Of course, instead of replacing the one homer and 3 outs with four singles, I'd rather replace the one homer and three outs with one homer and three more homers, or any non-out producing outcome.

BLEEDS
04-23-2008, 01:05 PM
Dunn's numbers are a complete paradox. His career stats batting in the #2 spot are .278/.388/.554 in 392 AB's. However his numbers at #4 are .259/.378/.522. That's pretty good but not great.

Yeah, I mean really. Who wants a career .900 OPS in the # 4 hole. NOT ME!!!


PEACE

-BLEEDS