View Full Version : Reds Players w/ MOB

04-22-2008, 09:25 PM
This article deals with MOB only

Using Dunns 2006 vs. Phillips 2007
299 235 51 17 69 57 12 87 8 .217 .372 .472 .845
337 306 85 11 75 18 4 56 26 .278 .325 .451 .776

So the difference is a .217 VS .278 BA
However.... there is one thing that sticks out, and thats GIDP.

So how much should we weight it? Should it count against AVG or against OBP? Actually it should count against SLG. I'm going to do TB-GDP and re-adjust the SLG%.
Reason: SLG = TB/AB. But a GIDP loses a base a different player would have gained. In fact, GIDP should be weighted more, because a single = 1TB. But without a GIDP, the runner is on 2nd compared to 1st, thus it's easier to score. I could go into BaseRuns, but that's too complicated for now.

BP - .366
Dunn 06 - .438
EE - .455
Griffey - .425
Dunn 07 - .502
Dunn career - .474
EE career - .435
Griffey career - .518
BP career - .344

New lines -
.295 .386 .518 .904 - Griffey - Carrer
.257 .392 .502 .894 - Dunn - 07
.243 .410 .474 .884 - Dunn - Career
.325 .394 .455 .849 - EE - 07
.278 .396 .425 .821 - Griffey - 07
.296 .382 .435 .817 - EE - Career
.217 .372 .438 .810 - Dunn - 06
.278 .325 .366 .691 - BP - 07
.269 .320 .344 .664 - BP - Career

So what? Right. Well this does a few things.
#1 - BP is just not a good hitter. There is no way he should be batting 4th, a place where theoretically a person will hit the most with MOB. He's looking awful in this.
#2 - EE is a very very solid hitter with MOB. He's a much better option for batting 4th compared to BP.
#3 - Dunn can fluctuate a lot. Using the career mark, .884 AdOPS is still solid. Even though his AVG is .243, he puts up the 2nd best AdSLG up there behind Griffey. Would you rather have EE-C or Dunn-C hitting with MOB? It's pretty clear Dunn is better. What he misses in Hits, he makes up in TB. Dunn is the best current MOB hitter on the team.
#4 - Griffey's an amazing hitter career wise, but he's not great anymore. EE is a better hitter with MOB.
#5 - Anyone else you want to see with enough sample size?

Extra Thought
This goes against a lot of what I've been saying, but BP needs to leadoff.
His GIDP are such a rally killer, that he should be batting with the least amount of MOB as possible. Maybe he'll change his approach and take more walks if he leads off? It's possible.

04-22-2008, 10:49 PM

Amen brother! Good research!

04-23-2008, 12:31 AM
(You posted this in another thread, so I am doing the same with my response.)

Great research, job well done. But you completely miss the point on Dunn.

Yes Dunn puts up good numbers in a broad sense, but when you look at the details, he simply does not get the job done with MOB. He either walks or he hits a homer, or he gets an out. That will give you a high OBP , and a high SLG, but that is very, very deceptive.

In SLG, the HR's are worth 4 times as much as single, and twice as much as a double, but they really only are worth much less than that on the field. Hitting a HR with MOB probably results in less than twice as many runs as a single, and just a little bit more that a double. The runs that don't score on the single or double (including the batter himself) will score much more often than one fourth less than with a home run.
So Dunn's SLG is inflated by HR's that don't really produce that many more runs. And his OBP is inflated by walks that produce less runs than hits do. Dunn does not get the hits necessary to be a productive hitter with MOB. I am passionate about this, and I know a lot of people disagree with me, but to be successful with MOB, you need to get hits and lots of them.

Also, adjusting the SLG of a batter because his at bat erases a runner is not really fair. You would then have to adjust every hitter based on whether or not a runner advanced a base because of a hitters AB, and that would really screw things up. And what about patient hitters that let a runner steal second? And how many GIDP were the result of the runner not taking the infielder out at second? You really can't penalize or benefit someone for what happens to another runner, even if it is mostly the batters doing. That is not how stats work. You are on the right track, GIDP does have a big negative effect, maybe you can come up with another stat that measures the effect a hitter has on MOB, in fact, that sounds like an interesting new stat, just don't tie it to other stats like SLG or OBP.

Anyway, I agree with most of your conclusions, BP is not that great of a hitter, he may become one, but he is not now, EE is best in the clutch, Griffey no longer is, we will just have to disagree on Dunn. Hey, maybe Hairston should bat cleanup?