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OnBaseMachine
04-22-2008, 11:15 PM
As high as I am on these two kids, I never expected them to be this dominant so early. Now I know both are going to hit some rough patches throughout the season, but I think we're going to see more good than bad from these two. What they are going right now is downright amazing. Check out their combined stats after eight starts:

48.2 IP, 31 H, 5 HR, 16 BB, 52 K, 2.43 ERA

Watching Cueto and Volquez dazzle hitters makes me extremely excited about the future. You add in a big horse like Aaron Harang and then remind yourself that Homer Bailey is still only 21 years old and pitching well in Louisville and 22-year old Daryl Thompson is dominating in AA and you can't help but salivate at how good this starting pitching can be for a long time. It's a great time to be a Cincinnati Reds fan.

toledodan
04-22-2008, 11:36 PM
i agree 100%. if the front office can make a couple of good decisions over the next few seasons on free agents we should be set. the young talent we have gives me great hope for the future.

RedlegJake
04-22-2008, 11:56 PM
Don't forget the other young arms behind those guys. Some are relievers, some yet to be determined. Wood, Lotzkar, Pelland, Bray, Carroll, Horst, Jeffords, Roenicke, Viola, Fisher, et al. I didn't even try to name all the guys who might become legitimate prospects as they progress, just a few of the ones making some noise and the more advanced ones that popped right into my head. Point being, from ace talent to possible closers, from mid rotation guys to middle relievers the farm is really looking good. A pipeline is being established and I hope the trend continues. That means strong drafts, signing international talent and good coaching as they go forward. The future pitching looks really, really bright.

membengal
04-23-2008, 07:10 AM
They have had a start that no one in their right minds could have realistically hoped for. The bonus is that the Reds have been managing their innings and pitches very appropriately so far.

I have been really pleased that Dusty has pulled them at the right junctures. That goes for all of the pitchers on the staff, for that matter. One of the things that most frustrated me with Narron was his need to run pitchers out for "just one more inning" only to see a few base hits, then come get them, and then see the inherited runners score. Used to drive me nuts.

OnBaseMachine
04-23-2008, 06:18 PM
Through several weeks of trade talks, Rangers GM Jon Daniels told me this spring, Krivsky insisted that Volquez had to be part of any deal for Hamilton.

"Wayne was pretty clear what it was going to cost from Day 1," Daniels said during our conversation in Surprise, Ariz. "It took us awhile. I tried a lot of different variations without giving up Volquez. But Wayne stuck with Volquez."

This season, Volquez is 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA in four starts for the Reds.

A week or so ago in San Diego's Petco Park, with various televisions tuned to several out-of-town games in the Padres clubhouse, future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux sat glued to the Reds game, locked in on Volquez.

"Who is this guy?" an impressed Maddux asked, as if happening upon an undiscovered gem.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/sportsline/main10795443.shtml

RedsManRick
04-23-2008, 06:25 PM
They have had a start that no one in their right minds could have realistically hoped for. The bonus is that the Reds have been managing their innings and pitches very appropriately so far.

I have been really pleased that Dusty has pulled them at the right junctures. That goes for all of the pitchers on the staff, for that matter. One of the things that most frustrated me with Narron was his need to run pitchers out for "just one more inning" only to see a few base hits, then come get them, and then see the inherited runners score. Used to drive me nuts.

I agree. To date, I have been very pleasantly surprised by Dusty's use of the pitching staff -- both in regards to pulling starters and the use of relievers.

pedro
04-23-2008, 06:27 PM
Through several weeks of trade talks,
A week or so ago in San Diego's Petco Park, with various televisions tuned to several out-of-town games in the Padres clubhouse, future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux sat glued to the Reds game, locked in on Volquez.

"Who is this guy?" an impressed Maddux asked, as if happening upon an undiscovered gem.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/sportsline/main10795443.shtml

I love that story.

*BaseClogger*
04-23-2008, 06:30 PM
Through several weeks of trade talks, Rangers GM Jon Daniels told me this spring, Krivsky insisted that Volquez had to be part of any deal for Hamilton.

"Wayne was pretty clear what it was going to cost from Day 1," Daniels said during our conversation in Surprise, Ariz. "It took us awhile. I tried a lot of different variations without giving up Volquez. But Wayne stuck with Volquez."

This season, Volquez is 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA in four starts for the Reds.

A week or so ago in San Diego's Petco Park, with various televisions tuned to several out-of-town games in the Padres clubhouse, future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux sat glued to the Reds game, locked in on Volquez.

"Who is this guy?" an impressed Maddux asked, as if happening upon an undiscovered gem.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/sportsline/main10795443.shtml

Mr. Maddux would you like an opportunity to work with Mr. Volquez as the pitching coach when you retire?

OnBaseMachine
04-24-2008, 11:22 PM
Cecil Cooper on Cueto:

"Today, that home run was huge for us to get off to a very good start against a young pitcher who's very, very good [and] very talented," Astros manager Cecil Cooper said. "I hate to think about the fact that he's going to be around in this division for a while. He has a great arm and I don't think he had his best stuff today, but he hung in there with us."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080424&content_id=2579470&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Screwball
04-25-2008, 02:39 AM
Cecil Cooper on Cueto:

"Today, that home run was huge for us to get off to a very good start against a young pitcher who's very, very good [and] very talented," Astros manager Cecil Cooper said. "I hate to think about the fact that he's going to be around in this division for a while. He has a great arm and I don't think he had his best stuff today, but he hung in there with us."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080424&content_id=2579470&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Just wait'll he gets a load of Volquez.

icehole3
04-25-2008, 04:22 AM
Volquez is more impressive to me his last start he was throwing nails at 98 mph.

smith288
04-25-2008, 08:34 AM
Now if our hitters would bring their bats to the plate instead of limp noodles.

coachw513
04-25-2008, 11:25 AM
Each guy has recently shown the ability to "extend his outing" both with better command but also with the mental toughness to bounce back after a bad pitch/stretch/inning...Cueto's 6th and 7th innings yesterday excite me...they are in direct opposition to my fear about Belisle and this year's current version of Arroyo...once it goes bad, it stays bad for them IMO...

OnBaseMachine
04-28-2008, 11:49 AM
But back to the good stuff. Volquez. Everywhere he goes he leaves folks wide-eyed.

Said San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy, “That kid’s got a great arm. We knew it coming into the game. He’s been throwing the ball well and we knew we needed a well-pitched game because of the way he has been throwing.

“You’ve got a kid out there throwing 95 to 97 with that kind of change-up. That’s a tough job for a lineup. I’m not surprised looking at his numbers and why they are where they are because he has a really good arm.”

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2008, 07:50 PM
Unusual Suspects: Rotobot in diguise
'Voltron' transforming into bionic arm in home state of Edison
By Dave Feldman / MLB.com

Unusual suspect: Edinson Volquez

Team: Cincinnati Reds
Position: Starting pitcher
Stats: 4-0, 1.23 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 33 Ks
Measurements: 6'1", 190 lbs.
Nicknames: "Voltron." I like it.
Signature: Mowing down National League lineups as if he were half-man, half-machine.
Mysteries: Where did this guy come from? Does he have a bionic arm? Did he grow up watching "Transformers" cartoons? How did that "n" magically appear in his first name after the 2006 season? Is he a disciple of Thomas Edison?

Background

One of the biggest heart-warming, feel-good stories of the 2007 baseball season was the arrival and success of Rule 5 outfielder Josh Hamilton in Cincinnati.

And despite Hamilton's renaissance campaign, the Reds had such a dearth of starting pitching that they shipped their prized outfielder to Texas in December for pitcher Edinson Volquez and his underwhelming 4.50 ERA of 2007. Call it the rare win-win deal, as Hamilton's 27 RBIs currently are tops in the Majors, and Volquez is steamrolling through opposing lineups.

So how is the man they call "Voltron" doing it?

To the evidence!

The evidence

Opportunity knocks: The moment Volquez was dealt to the Reds, it was pretty clear that he would have a rotation spot all to himself in the 'Nati. Surprisingly, that would not have necessarily been the case had he stayed in Arlington, where the Rangers slowly began to sour on Voltron's long-term outlook after he struggled over six forgettable starts last season.

Change of scenery: Of course, moving to the National League never hurts. According to a 2007 "New York Times" study, "From 2000 through 2005, 57 starting pitchers (those with at least 20 starts that season) switched leagues the next year -- 29 to the N.L. from the A.L. and 28 in the other direction. Their statistics moved with them: Combined ERAs for the new National Leaguers decreased to 3.94 from 4.79, or 0.85 of a run, while their counterparts' increased to 4.64 from 3.94, a move of 0.70."

K zone: Voltron has made up for any control problems by upping his K rate. The flamethrowing righty is averaging a ridiculous 1.13 strikeouts per inning pitched this year, compared to his 0.85 rate of a season ago.

Grounded: While chicks may dig the long ball, starting pitchers don't. And Voltron is Exhibit A. The 24-year-old hurler has yet to serve up a homer over 29 1/3 innings this season, which helps explain his 1.23 ERA. Keeping the ball in the yard is a newfound virtue for Volquez, who was shelled for 14 dingers over 80 innings while posting a ghastly 7.20 ERA heading into the year.

Conspiracy theory

Of course, there are always ulterior explanations.

As seen in the 2006 "Baseball America Prospect Handbook," the No. 1 prospect in the Rangers' farm system was not Edinson Volquez. It was Edison Volquez. For reasons yet to be explained, at some point between the 2006 and 2007 seasons, the letter "n" began magically appearing in Voltron's first name. Though it was not as drastic or surprising as Brian Williams changing his name to Bison Dele back in 1998, it's certainly noteworthy.

And while I tried my best to explain Volquez's surprising story by dishing out geeky stats and ratios in "The evidence," sometimes unforeseen success can simply be attributed to the supernatural -- like a light bulb magically turning on in a player's head and "poof," things just start clicking.

And it only makes sense that Edi(n)son's light bulb turned on only after he arrived in Cincinnati, Ohio. I mean, what better place for a lightbulb to turn on for a guy who used to be called Edison than in the very state where Thomas Edison -- the inventor of the lightbulb -- was born?

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/article.jsp?ymd=20080429&content_id=2608099&vkey=fantasy&fext=.jsp

Falls City Beer
04-29-2008, 08:35 PM
Cueto's not ready. He was promoted too quickly.

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2008, 08:37 PM
Good grief.

Cueto has allowed 29 baserunners in 33.1 innings and has nearly a K per inning. Let's not give up on him just yet?

That's the problem with Reds having young players. Fans turn on them very, very quickly.

Matt700wlw
04-29-2008, 08:38 PM
Good grief.

Cueto has allowed 29 baserunners in 33.1 innings and has nearly a K per inning. Let's not give up on him just yet?

That's the problem with Reds having young players. Fans turn on them very, very quickly.

SOME fans.

reds44
04-29-2008, 08:39 PM
I'm curious as to what tells you Cueto isn't ready.

K'ing a lot.
Walking very little.
WHIP under 1.

He's going to have his struggles, everybody knew that.

Caveat Emperor
04-29-2008, 08:40 PM
Cueto's not ready. He was promoted too quickly.

He"d go through starts like this no matter when he got called up.

Aronchis
04-29-2008, 08:41 PM
Cueto's lack of plane cost him badly tonight. He simply has to have perfect control or he gets smashed. Developing a good changeup, however, should be the tonic. But it isn't there yet.

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2008, 08:41 PM
He"d go through starts like this no matter when he got called up.

Exactly.

Reds fans are very impatient.

Tommyjohn25
04-29-2008, 08:51 PM
Every now and then, we're going to be reminded that Cueto is 22 years old. There's not a thing wrong with that either.

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2008, 08:54 PM
Every now and then, we're going to be reminded that Cueto is 22 years old. There's not a thing wrong with that either.

Very, very true. I expected outings like these. I just think it's crazy how fans react after one bad outing i.e. he's not ready, send him to AAA and comments like that. I didn't see those comments after his starts vs Arizona or Milwaukee.

WVRedsFan
04-29-2008, 08:56 PM
We've learned he's human. After his first two starts in which he allowed only 6 hits in 13 innings and struck out 18, he's come back to earth. His last 21 innings have him giving up 17 hits 15 runs and only striking out 13.

In the first inning tonight, he was leaving the ball up in the zone which led to four hits. He's thrown 33 pitches which means a short outing and probably inflate his ERA to well over 5. He'll be OK, but he's a rookie and we should expect that.

Matt700wlw
04-29-2008, 08:59 PM
He's human? WHAT!!!!

I want my money back.

Tommyjohn25
04-29-2008, 08:59 PM
Very, very true. I expected outings like these. I just think it's crazy how fans react after one bad outing i.e. he's not ready, send him to AAA and comments like that. I didn't see those comments after his starts vs Arizona or Milwaukee.

Nope, the masses were certainly silent after those starts. In fairness, I think the knee jerk reactions should be expected since the youngsters struggles usually result in a Reds loss, which nobody on here likes. Look at the big picture, however, and it's bright. :cool:

WVRedsFan
04-29-2008, 09:00 PM
He's human? WHAT!!!!

I want my money back.

No deposit, no return. :)

jojo
04-29-2008, 09:02 PM
Cueto's not ready. He was promoted too quickly.

He belongs in the majors. We're just seeing that he's merely a prince and not yet a king as the notion he has 30 or 40 plus pitches is giving way to the sober realization that the kid is simply damn good with a lot of ceiling.

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2008, 09:09 PM
Dunn. Wow.

One thing I don't understand. Cueto has a great, great slider as an out pitch and yet he continuously throws fastballs on 0-2 or 1-2 instead of his main out pitch. He did the same thing in his last start. I don't understand that at all.

Aronchis
04-29-2008, 09:11 PM
Especially when he has no plane tonight. This is the type of start like last year's embarrasing 13hit turd he gave up in AA.

Just terrible pitching.

fearofpopvol1
04-29-2008, 09:12 PM
He just didn't have his best stuff tonight and was not able to effectively find the strike zone. I expect him to rebound next time out.

WVRedsFan
04-29-2008, 09:13 PM
Game over.
Goodnight Mrs. Kallabash wherever you are...

Dan
04-29-2008, 09:13 PM
A guy who's had 5 starts in the majors is going against players who have years and years of experience. Cueto's got a lot to learn but he's got the skills to be in the majors. Methinks Volquez is going to be a good guide for Cueto through these rough patches though.

Caveat Emperor
04-29-2008, 09:13 PM
5/29/02


IP / H / R / ER / BB / K / HR
1 8 7 7 1 2 1

Josh Beckett v. CIN

Happens to the best of young phenoms, I suppose

Matt700wlw
04-29-2008, 09:13 PM
Dunn. Wow.

One thing I don't understand. Cueto has a great, great slider as an out pitch and yet he continuously throws fastballs on 0-2 or 1-2 instead of his main out pitch. He did the same thing in his last start. I don't understand that at all.

Maybe it was just one of those night where it just wasn't working, so the ball didn't do much...except hang there to get killed

Matt700wlw
04-29-2008, 09:13 PM
5/29/02

IP / H / R / ER / BB / K / HR
1 8 7 7 1 2 1

Josh Beckett v. CIN

Happens to the best of young phenoms, I suppose

That unpossible.

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2008, 09:14 PM
5/29/02


IP / H / R / ER / BB / K / HR
1 8 7 7 1 2 1

Josh Beckett v. CIN

Happens to the best of young phenoms, I suppose

What?!? You mean young pitchers don't struggle? Blasphemy! ;)

WVRedsFan
04-29-2008, 09:19 PM
Cueto:

Last 21.2 innings
H - 26
R - 21
K - 15
ERA - north of 8.

His first two starts, he only allowed 6 hits and 3 runs in 13.1 innings. There's a lot of work left to do.

Matt700wlw
04-29-2008, 09:21 PM
....if the trend continues, then send him down. For now, I keep running him out there and see if he can make the adjustments. How long depends on him.

It's a fine line, I know.

jojo
04-29-2008, 09:23 PM
5/29/02


IP / H / R / ER / BB / K / HR
1 8 7 7 1 2 1

Josh Beckett v. CIN

Happens to the best of young phenoms, I suppose

That one inning represented roughly 1% of the total runs scored by the Reds in '02..... wowsers.

Joseph
04-29-2008, 09:25 PM
3 good outings,3 bad outings.

Sounds like my early dating life.

jojo
04-29-2008, 09:28 PM
3 good outings,3 bad outings.

Sounds like my early dating life.
What was your SLG%? :D

Caveat Emperor
04-29-2008, 09:31 PM
3 good outings,3 bad outings.

Sounds like my early dating life.

Take away the good outings and you get about where I'm at these days. ;)

Cueto had success when he could throw darts at 95 at the lower half of the plate. He's having difficulty keeping the ball down and keeping his velocity in the mid 90s. It appears he's throwing harder, getting less on the ball, and (as a result) leaving the ball up in the zone.

Maybe he's fatiguing a little bit.

Joseph
04-29-2008, 09:31 PM
Its really the OBP I was focused on. :)

Falls City Beer
04-29-2008, 09:33 PM
Take away the good outings and you get about where I'm at these days. ;)

Cueto had success when he could throw darts at 95 at the lower half of the plate. He's having difficulty keeping the ball down and keeping his velocity in the mid 90s. It appears he's throwing harder, getting less on the ball, and (as a result) leaving the ball up in the zone.

Maybe he's fatiguing a little bit.

Hello physical maturity and strength at age 22.

jojo
04-29-2008, 09:34 PM
Its really the OBP I was focused on. :)

0-3 when attending in '08.......man, you're killing us! :cool:

jojo
04-29-2008, 09:36 PM
Hello physical maturity and strength at age 22.

190+ IP as a 21 year old.....

Caveat Emperor
04-29-2008, 09:37 PM
Hello physical maturity and strength at age 22.

Or, on the other hand: Hello rigors of the big show.

Not a lot of EST to PST to CST road trips in AAA.

Add in the fact that he has to face lineups filled with quality hitters on a nightly basis (no career minor leaguers / utilitymen lineups), and you've got a bit of a reality check.

Superdude
04-29-2008, 09:39 PM
Huge difference in pitch speed between FSN and pitch F/X tonight. I thought maybe lack of stuff was hurting him tonight when the FSN gun read 91 most the game, but pitch f/x had him absolutely throwing smoke at 95-98. I'm not sure which to trust based on how he got beat around tonight.

jojo
04-29-2008, 09:40 PM
Or, on the other hand: Hello rigors of the big show.

Not a lot of EST to PST to CST road trips in AAA.

Add in the fact that he has to face lineups filled with quality hitters on a nightly basis (no career minor leaguers / utilitymen lineups), and you've got a bit of a reality check.

Since he's a flop, the Reds should trade him for a right handed hitter.....maybe to Seattle for a guy like Wlad B. :cool:

Falls City Beer
04-29-2008, 09:41 PM
Or, on the other hand: Hello rigors of the big show.

Not a lot of EST to PST to CST road trips in AAA.

Add in the fact that he has to face lineups filled with quality hitters on a nightly basis (no career minor leaguers / utilitymen lineups), and you've got a bit of a reality check.

Obviously. But the fact that he's not able to find his pacing, know how fast his stuff is going to be from start to start, points to some strength issues, IMO.

22 is awfully young. Being able to throw 95 MPH for a strike does not immunize you from the physical and emotional rigors of this game.

Falls City Beer
04-29-2008, 09:43 PM
Since he's a flop, the Reds should trade him for a right handed hitter.....maybe to Seattle for a guy like Wlad B. :cool:

Come on, don't YOU start in on the strawmanning, too! :) I'm not saying he's a flop; I'm saying he's young and not ready for a season of starting at MLB.

RedFanAlways1966
04-29-2008, 09:46 PM
22 is awfully young. Being able to throw 95 MPH for a strike does not immunize you from the physical and emotional rigors of this game.

Or the emotional rigors of knowing your team has scored 12 runs in your 5 starts entering tonight. Most runs scored in a game you started was 3.

And it is looking much the same for start #6.

jojo
04-29-2008, 09:47 PM
Huge difference in pitch speed between FSN and pitch F/X tonight. I thought maybe lack of stuff was hurting him tonight when the FSN gun read 91 most the game, but pitch f/x had him absolutely throwing smoke at 95-98. I'm not sure which to trust based on how he got beat around tonight.

FWIW, Joel P has been averaging 91 mph on his fastball for the season according to pitch f/x and tonight pitch f/x has been registering him at 89-91 mph.

jojo
04-29-2008, 09:48 PM
Come on, don't YOU start in on the strawmanning, too! :) I'm not saying he's a flop; I'm saying he's young and not ready for a season of starting at MLB.

I'm not strawmanning. I'm just rooting for Bill Bavasi to actually be the one to get one over on someone for a change.

Falls City Beer
04-29-2008, 09:49 PM
Or the emotional rigors of knowing your team has scored 12 runs in your 5 starts entering tonight. Most runs scored in a game you started was 3.

And it is looking much the same for start #6.

To me, this is just more artillery for the "he's too young" argument. If you're going to get rattled by less than spectacular run support, you should probably find a different vocation.

I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Jocketty makes the recommendation for Dusty to put him in the pen if this continues for another couple of starts.

jojo
04-29-2008, 09:52 PM
To me, this is just more artillery for the "he's too young" argument. If you're going to get rattled by less than spectacular run support, you should probably find a different vocation.

I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Jocketty makes the recommendation for Dusty to put him in the pen if this continues for another couple of starts.

All kidding aside, we should be careful not to read too much into 20 innings.

flyer85
04-29-2008, 09:53 PM
Cueto is going through the learning curve that most young guys go through. He couldn't locate his off speed stuff and then kept missing up and over the plate. Kids only 21 and hasn't had much experience in dealing with adversity

Falls City Beer
04-29-2008, 09:53 PM
All kidding aside, we should be careful reading too much into 20 innings.

We should be even more careful not reading anything into his performance.

Matt700wlw
04-29-2008, 09:55 PM
We should be even more careful not reading anything into his performance.

Reading it and over reading it are two different things.


I bet you didn't read anything into it when he was dominating.

Now, since he's run into some struggles, you've got him all figured out, don't you?

OnBaseMachine
04-29-2008, 09:55 PM
To me, this is just more artillery for the "he's too young" argument. If you're going to get rattled by less than spectacular run support, you should probably find a different vocation.

I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Jocketty makes the recommendation for Dusty to put him in the pen if this continues for another couple of starts.

If Cueto gets rocked in his next three or tfour starts then I wouldn't have a problem with shifting him to the bullpen to limit his inning total and then putting him back in the rotation in August or September. But he has to prove to me first that he's not ready to be a starter yet. Three bad starts (just one truly bad one) hasn't changed my opinion of him. I realize he's only 22 and is going to have some bad starts.

Highlifeman21
04-29-2008, 09:55 PM
Is it just me or does Cueto love his slider as much as Ryan Wagner loved his when we brought him up?

Matt700wlw
04-29-2008, 10:02 PM
All kidding aside, we should be careful not to read too much into 20 innings.

Ultimately, but that's no fun.

SirFelixCat
04-29-2008, 10:02 PM
Cueto is going through the learning curve that most young guys go through. He couldn't locate his off speed stuff and then kept missing up and over the plate. Kids only 21 and hasn't had much experience in dealing with adversity

:goodposting:

jojo
04-29-2008, 10:06 PM
Is it just me or does Cueto love his slider as much as Ryan Wagner loved his when we brought him up?

He's thrown it about 30% of the time so far in '08. For comparison, Harang has thrown his about 27% this season.

Hooligan
04-29-2008, 11:39 PM
They better watch that Cueto doesn't end up like Tomko. If he doesn't get it together he needs to go down for awhile.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2008, 12:10 AM
Johnny Cueto's sixth start was by far his worst. He went 1 2/3 innings, allowing seven runs (six earned) on eight hits. They hit some rockets off him. It's hard to tell much from the press box -- it's right about even with the top of arch.

"He was throwing well but he wasn't locating well," Dusty Baker siad. "Too many balls over the heart of the plate and up."

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/

SteelSD
04-30-2008, 12:29 AM
Did anyone honestly not understand that the Reds' young starters would take some lumps? This always projected to be a transition year for pitchers as they learned their craft at the MLB level.

And I hate to say it because folks don't want to hear it, but Volquez is next. There's simply no way a pitcher with a minor league HR rate of 0.86 per nine Innings can continue to put up an ERA under 2.00 while also producing a BB at nearly 5.00 per nine Innings. Doesn't matter how many Strikeouts he acquires. He's going to give up the longball eventually.

At this point, the Reds' Starting Pitchers' ERA is 5.02. For 2008, the pitching is not as advertised.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2008, 01:43 AM
"He was just behind the count, which is surprising for him," catcher Paul Bako said. "He was kind of wild at times and wild in the zone. Chalk it up to one of those days. It's a long season."

"Johnny was just getting the ball over the heart of the plate and up," Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "His stuff is still good. I talked to the umpire [Phil Cuzzi]. He told me his stuff was still good. Just poor location tonight."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080429&content_id=2608917&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Highlifeman21
04-30-2008, 07:47 AM
He's thrown it about 30% of the time so far in '08. For comparison, Harang has thrown his about 27% this season.

It just seems as of late that hitters are sitting and waiting for the slider, and then hitting it hard all over the yard.

He also seems to have partially abandoned his change-up.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2008, 07:58 AM
Did anyone honestly not understand that the Reds' young starters would take some lumps? This always projected to be a transition year for pitchers as they learned their craft at the MLB level.

And I hate to say it because folks don't want to hear it, but Volquez is next. There's simply no way a pitcher with a minor league HR rate of 0.86 per nine Innings can continue to put up an ERA under 2.00 while also producing a BB at nearly 5.00 per nine Innings. Doesn't matter how many Strikeouts he acquires. He's going to give up the longball eventually.

At this point, the Reds' Starting Pitchers' ERA is 5.02. For 2008, the pitching is not as advertised.

I think Volquez will take lumps; I worry that Cueto will get continually frustrated and carry around a big ERA for a long time. It's hard for a 22 year old to step back, take a deep breath, and take the long view on things.

bucksfan2
04-30-2008, 08:16 AM
Love the knee jerk reactions. Young pitcher are going to have starts like the one last night. They may be inportant in the development of a young pitcher. A start like this shows that you have to pitch and not just throw when you don't have your stuff. He looked rushed and he wasn't locating his pitches like he normally does. A start like last night is just part of the maturation process. On a positive not he held Pujols hitless in 2 AB's.

membengal
04-30-2008, 08:56 AM
There's no question this whole thing is a massive failure at this point. The Reds need to send him all the way back to A ball, like the Rangers ended up having to do with Volquez, to see if he can straighten himself out. It may already be too late. Can they still get Blanton for him?

Falls City Beer
04-30-2008, 08:59 AM
I'm glad to see the voting system has improved discussion. I agree with pedro--the board's quality has actually declined. I'm not ignoring any part I might have played in lowering the level of discourse, but it's pretty consistently bad all around.

membengal
04-30-2008, 09:03 AM
Was my post not dripping with sarcasm enough? C'mon, fcb, Phil Hughes got lit last night. Like a Christmas tree. Is he too young/rushed etc. too? Young pitchers struggle at times. That's an absolute given. King Felix has taken several years to try and figure out how to consistently be good. Cueto, in my opinion, should get the same latitude, and questions off of one or two bad performances like you have raised strike me as an extreme over-reaction to what is a normal occurrence for a young pitcher.

Heck, it's a normal occurrence for most veteran pitchers.

edabbs44
04-30-2008, 09:06 AM
I think it is absolutely realistic that both Cueto/Volquez will take a beating now and again this season. The expectations on this board over the past month of these two was the unrealistic part of it all.

If they are truly going to be "next level" pitchers, watching how they rebound from starts like these will be critical.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2008, 09:06 AM
Was my post not dripping with sarcasm enough? C'mon, fcb, Phil Hughes got lit last night. Like a Christmas tree. Is he too young/rushed etc. too? Young pitchers struggle at times. That's an absolute given. King Felix has taken several years to try and figure out how to consistently be good. Cueto, in my opinion, should get the same latitude, and questions off of one or two bad performances like you have raised strike me as an extreme over-reaction to what is a normal occurrence for a young pitcher.

Heck, it's a normal occurrence for most veteran pitchers.

I don't think Seattle should have promoted Felix at his age, either. Hughes is older.

It's not that rookies struggle; it's that it's a baby in diapers who is struggling. How hard is that to understand?

Trust me, when Volquez struggles this season (and he will), I won't be calling for a demotion. He's old enough and has had enough upper minors/majors exposure to be thrown straight on the fire.

membengal
04-30-2008, 09:08 AM
Indeed, edabbs.

And, NOT making excuses, but simply asking a question that occurred to me last night as Cueto looked like he was simply not loose...in his most uneven starts, Pittsburgh, the home game against Houston, and last night, it has been cold (or extra-cool), no? I know the Pittsburgh start was. The low in St. Louis was 32 last night, so that game was probably played with the temps in the low 40s.

I wonder if Cueto has a harder time getting loose in cooler weather. That is something that he may need help understanding how to do, IF it is an issue, from his pitching coach or some of the vets.

Just talking out loud here, and wondering if the thought has crossed anyone else's mind.

membengal
04-30-2008, 09:11 AM
I don't think Seattle should have promoted Felix at his age, either. Hughes is older.

It's not that rookies struggle; it's that it's a baby in diapers who is struggling. How hard is that to understand?

Not hard at all. But he's 22. Not 19. And we have seen dominance from him. And now getting hit hard. I don't ascribe the getting hit hard to him being 22, anymore than the dominance to him being 22. I am of the opinion, that with stuff like he has, and command like he has shown, that in the majors is the best place for him to finish developing. He needs to learn how to get past rough patches, how to work around not being loose, how to stop bleeding and not let it get in his head. And I think that can all be done in Cincy, and done in a way that progresses him. As long as his pitch counts and innings are managed as carefully as they have been so far, I am content with what I have seen, good AND bad, which I expected.

In fact, in a perverse way, last night's struggles and early exit were pleasing in the low-pitch-count-low-inning kind of way.

That's my take anyway.

ETA: Hope that sufficiently meets the standard for raising of discourse (insert smiley as appropriate here).

membengal
04-30-2008, 09:59 AM
And, just for funsies (2008 year-to-date stats):

Johnny Cueto: 35 innings 33 Ks 6 BBs 5.40 ERA 1.08 WHIP

Tim Lincecum: 36 innings 40 Ks 15 BBs 1.73 ERA 1.38 WHIP

Phil Hughes: 22 innings 13 Ks 13 BBs 9.00 ERA 2.14 WHIP

Ed Volquez: 29 innings 33 Ks 16 BBs 1.23 ERA 1.23 WHIP

Andrew Miller: 25 innings 18 Ks 13 BBs 9.12 ERA 2.38 WHIP

Jon Lester: 39 innings 22 Ks 23 BBs 4.31 ERA 1.55 WHIP

Rookie seasons:

Jake Peavy : 17 games started 97 innings 90 Ks 33 BBs 4.52 ERA 1.42 WHIP
(age 21 rookie year)

Matt Cain: 190 innings 179 Ks 87 BBs 4.15 ERA 1.28 WHIP
(age 21 in first full season of use)

Felix Hernandez : 191 innings 176 Ks 60 BBs 4.52 ERA 1.33 WHIP
(age 20 in first full season of use)

Brandon Webb: 180 innings 172 Ks 68 BBs 2.84 ERA 1.15 WHIP
(age 24 in first full season of use)

NJReds
04-30-2008, 10:10 AM
The kid got roughed up last night. It'll be interesting to see how he bounces back in his next start.

membengal
04-30-2008, 10:13 AM
And, the reason I tossed up those stats is to help myself keep perspective. Struggles naturally occur with young pitchers, as many have said. Brandon Webb was exceptional out of the gate, but then again, his BBs exploded to 100 in his second season before going back down. The others one might compare? The struggles you would expect. So adjustment to the league takes time. It takes time to learn how to pitch. To set hitters up effectively. To manage innings in your mind and pitch a gameplan. All of that must be learned.

So, yeah, stuff like last night is less than ideal. But part of the learning curve for pitchers with Cueto's stuff. As NJ said, the interesting thing is how he responds to this kind of bump in the road, and how he can be better next time.

RedsManRick
04-30-2008, 10:16 AM
Why is nobody looking at the bright side? Outings like last night keep his innings count down!

membengal
04-30-2008, 10:17 AM
Why is nobody looking at the bright side? Outings like last night keep his innings count down!

Ha! I mentioned just that random thought in post #80 above.

SMcGavin
04-30-2008, 10:35 AM
Trust me, when Volquez struggles this season (and he will), I won't be calling for a demotion.

About two weeks ago, you wanted to hang on to Josh Fogg because it was "very likely" Volquez would be out of the rotation by mid-May. When someone else disagreed with keeping Fogg, your response was "gotta replace Volquez with somebody".

Chip R
04-30-2008, 10:38 AM
Excepting last night's start, if we put the numbers to all his starts out there and changed the name to Matt Belisle instead of Johnny Cueto, I think we would be very pleased with his progress and would anoint him the #3 starter.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2008, 11:10 AM
About two weeks ago, you wanted to hang on to Josh Fogg because it was "very likely" Volquez would be out of the rotation by mid-May. When someone else disagreed with keeping Fogg, your response was "gotta replace Volquez with somebody".

I later admitted that "very likely" was a poor choice of words. I said it "was possible" that with Volquez's control problems that he might get demoted to the pen. The thrust of my point wasn't to criticize Volquez, but to point out the need for depth when you have two rookies in the rotation; two rookies being expected to throw 30 starts.

flyer85
04-30-2008, 11:15 AM
What Volquez has learned that Cueto has not is that you can't keep making mistakes in the middle of the plate, even if it means you might walk a few more. No matter how good you stuff is you still have to stay out of the middle of the plate in the majors ... unlike the minors.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2008, 11:17 AM
And right on cue, I was right: the Reds desperately needed Fogg in the long-man role last night, when Cueto clearly didn't have it.

But keep on questioning my acumen. :)

membengal
04-30-2008, 11:21 AM
I certainly wasn't arguing for getting rid of Fogg. I like the role he is in right now.

edabbs44
04-30-2008, 11:31 AM
And, just for funsies (2008 year-to-date stats):

Johnny Cueto: 35 innings 33 Ks 6 BBs 4.08 ERA 1.26 WHIP


These aren't accurate.

membengal
04-30-2008, 11:33 AM
These aren't accurate.

Should be 5.40 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. My bad. My source was baseballreference.com. They appear to have updated it.

ETA: Fixed in the original list. And, since I am posting from work, sorry for any inaccuracies. It was thrown together somewhat hastily. But my greater point stands. What Cueto is going through is normal. In every sense.

SMcGavin
04-30-2008, 12:45 PM
And right on cue, I was right: the Reds desperately needed Fogg in the long-man role last night, when Cueto clearly didn't have it.

But keep on questioning my acumen. :)

Yes you will be right, as soon as Fogg takes over Volquez's rotation slot. Anybody who wants to can go back through that old thread, I'm not making these quotes up. Regardless of how you frame it now your point was precisely to criticize Volquez for what you called "a storied history of serious, serious control problems" that would land him out of the rotation. It was during the Cubs game where Volquez walked in a run early.

I would not have called you on this, except I read a post from you a while back stating that you were never (or maybe it was very rarely) wrong about the Reds. I'm not implying that you generally don't know what you are talking about. Only that if you want to triumph the correct calls you make, it's only fair to own up to the bad ones.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2008, 12:48 PM
Yes you will be right, as soon as Fogg takes over Volquez's rotation slot. Anybody who wants to can go back through that old thread, I'm not making these quotes up. Regardless of how you frame it now your point was precisely to criticize Volquez for what you called "a storied history of serious, serious control problems" that would land him out of the rotation. It was during the Cubs game where Volquez walked in a run early.

I would not have called you on this, except I read a post from you a while back stating that you were never (or maybe it was very rarely) wrong about the Reds. I'm not implying that you generally don't know what you are talking about. Only that if you want to triumph the correct calls you make, it's only fair to own up to the bad ones.

So you see no chance that Volquez's control will affect him this season?

And bravo, you're right--I pointed out that Volquez has a history of serious control issues. Another accuracy. Shame on me.

flyer85
04-30-2008, 12:52 PM
from Carroll at BP


A couple of weeks ago, after Cueto's second dominant start, I noticed something. With the assistance of Eric Seidman, the PitchFX data appears to be telling us something, but I was only confident enough to hint, but later in that start, I noticed that Cueto's release point appeared to stay very consistent. That played into a pet theory of mine: we know now, after years of research, that getting a pitcher's proprioception back is the hardest part of a Tommy John rehab. The pitcher loses some of the ability to note where his hand/arm is in space, leading to the "disconnected" sense that many of them struggle with, or did before changes to the rehab protocols. Now that we have accurate release point data, it will be interesting to see if my theory that we see early proprioceptive deficits—situations where we see wildness from a consistent release point—being predictive of early-stage injury. It's just a theory, mind you, but it does fit as an explanation for Cueto's more recent struggles.

SMcGavin
04-30-2008, 12:57 PM
So you see no chance that Volquez's control will affect him this season?

And bravo, you're right--I pointed out that Volquez has a history of serious control issues. Another accuracy. Shame on me.

Of course it will affect him. Going into the year I was hoping for 200 innings of 4.50-5.00 ERA pitching from Volquez. I didn't expect this kind of a start from him and I don't expect it to last all year long.

Your earlier post in this thread said you won't call for Volquez to be removed from the rotation when he struggles. A couple of weeks ago Volquez was struggling in that Cubs game, and you were in fact saying he would probably be removed from the rotation in the next month. Your position seems to have changed. That's all I'm saying.

I think a lot of the time you are on the ball when it comes to making realistic predictions. I also think sometimes you make overly negative predictions and try to pass them off as the realistic ones. I'm sure you don't care what I think but I enjoy reading more of the former and less of the latter.

flyer85
04-30-2008, 01:03 PM
a part that people are missing on Volquez(it's why he hasn't given up a HR) is that is GO/AO ratio is 37/16. Which means the low HRs is not a fluke. It is a decided departure from the Volquez of the past. If he keeps the Ks high and the flyballs low a few extra BBs isn't going to amount to much.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2008, 01:10 PM
a part that people are missing on Volquez(it's why he hasn't given up a HR) is that is GO/AO ratio is 37/16. Which means the low HRs is not a fluke. It is a decided departure from the Volquez of the past. If he keeps the Ks high and the flyballs low a few extra BBs isn't going to amount to much.

Yep. I'd argue that you're seeing the completion of his physical maturation in that altered GO/AO rate. The ability to consistently finish his pitches, gain another mile or two on the FB.

jojo
04-30-2008, 01:25 PM
Yep. I'd argue that you're seeing the completion of his physical maturation in that altered GO/AO rate. The ability to consistently finish his pitches, gain another mile or two on the FB.

I think what you're seeing is the effect of not seeing a great deal yet....he's always had GB tendencies but not to the extent he's shown in his first thirty innings of '08. His GB's should be expected to creep down and settle somewhere around 45% for a GB/FB of roughly 1.50 or so.....

Also it's probably obvious, but even though he has GB tendencies that limit HR opportunities, he's not going to sustain a HR/FB% of 0%.....

lollipopcurve
04-30-2008, 01:30 PM
Also it's probably obvious, but even though he has GB tendencies that limit HR opportunities, he's not going to sustain a HR/FB% of 0%.....

That's like saying Volquez will give up a homer this year.

jojo
04-30-2008, 01:32 PM
That's like saying Volquez will give up a homer this year.


Ya...it almost implies he's even likely to give up more than one.

REDREAD
04-30-2008, 01:33 PM
Let's hope Will Carrol's theory is wrong. An injury to Ceuto would be devastating to this club. Although I respect the guy enough to be worried now.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2008, 01:34 PM
I think what you're seeing is the effect of not seeing a great deal yet....he's always had GB tendencies but not to the extent he's shown in his first thirty innings of '08. His GB's should be expected to creep down and settle somewhere around 45% for a GB/FB of roughly 1.50 or so.....

Also it's probably obvious, but even though he has GB tendencies that limit HR opportunities, he's not going to sustain a HR/FB% of 0%.....

I say this mostly because Volquez is throwing faster than his normal top speeds with regularity--according to scouting reports. He can consistenly hit 96, with an upper end of 98. That's different and could be--though it's far from certain--a result of physical maturation/strengthening.

Caveat Emperor
04-30-2008, 01:53 PM
Said during the game today that they're going to have Mario Soto brought up to work with Cueto on his mechanics and delivery.

lollipopcurve
04-30-2008, 02:03 PM
Ya...it almost implies he's even likely to give up more than one.

It may soften the blow to suggest, tastefully, that one should not be astounded if he gave up 10.

jojo
04-30-2008, 02:08 PM
Said during the game today that they're going to have Mario Soto brought up to work with Cueto on his mechanics and delivery.

That's kind of scary because his aren't really that "complicated"....

dougdirt
04-30-2008, 02:23 PM
That's kind of scary because his aren't really that "complicated"....

I am going to go with its also kind of scary that they have a pitching coach who apparently can't do it as well as another employee of the Reds who isn't the pitching coach.....

kaldaniels
04-30-2008, 02:24 PM
Don't know if its been seen, but Arroyo is going Sunday now, w/Johnny pushed back to Tues.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080430&content_id=2614614&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Highlifeman21
04-30-2008, 02:43 PM
Love the knee jerk reactions. Young pitcher are going to have starts like the one last night. They may be inportant in the development of a young pitcher. A start like this shows that you have to pitch and not just throw when you don't have your stuff. He looked rushed and he wasn't locating his pitches like he normally does. A start like last night is just part of the maturation process. On a positive not he held Pujols hitless in 2 AB's.

If people based their opinions and what not off last night's performance, then sure, it'd be knee jerk, but this is the 3rd bad start Cueto's had. Based on last night, he didn't learn anything from getting knocked around by the Pirates on 4/13, or by the Astros on 4/24.

I'm hoping he learns something from all of those performances. So far, to me, he seems to be feast or famine, in terms of performance. 2 very forgettable, 1 eh, and 3 quality starts. IMO, as long as his QS% is above 66% for the year, it'll be an excellent rookie campaign.

Matt700wlw
04-30-2008, 02:47 PM
And right on cue, I was right: the Reds desperately needed Fogg in the long-man role last night, when Cueto clearly didn't have it.

But keep on questioning my acumen. :)

At least you have yourself to pat you on the back....otherwise nobody would.

Chip R
04-30-2008, 02:51 PM
At least you have yourself to pat you on the back....otherwise nobody would.

http://barryhorowitz.newpathproductions.com/15.jpg

RedsManRick
04-30-2008, 02:52 PM
I am going to go with its also kind of scary that they have a pitching coach who apparently can't do it as well as another employee of the Reds who isn't the pitching coach.....

One gets the feeling that if Soto wanted to be the pitching coach, the job would be his. He just doesn't want it.

Matt700wlw
04-30-2008, 02:53 PM
Here's a thought...if 2009 is the year...how about we bring all the young guys (Bruce, Bailey, whomever) they're anticipating to help get the team over the hump in 2009 right now so they can all go through their lumps together?

Otherwise, it's the same process next year....

Unless, of course, the young guys are trading chips (Jocketty's done it before)

dougdirt
04-30-2008, 02:58 PM
If people based their opinions and what not off last night's performance, then sure, it'd be knee jerk, but this is the 3rd bad start Cueto's had. Based on last night, he didn't learn anything from getting knocked around by the Pirates on 4/13, or by the Astros on 4/24.

I'm hoping he learns something from all of those performances. So far, to me, he seems to be feast or famine, in terms of performance. 2 very forgettable, 1 eh, and 3 quality starts. IMO, as long as his QS% is above 66% for the year, it'll be an excellent rookie campaign.

Thats setting the bar a little high, only 26 pitchers in baseball had a QS% that high last year.

dougdirt
04-30-2008, 02:59 PM
One gets the feeling that if Soto wanted to be the pitching coach, the job would be his. He just doesn't want it.

If he is that good, which we apparently feel he is, just give him enough money and get it done.

Matt700wlw
04-30-2008, 03:00 PM
If he's that good, which I suspect he would be if he were a pitching coach, have him in the lower levels...

kaldaniels
04-30-2008, 03:02 PM
Gotta say...it was a pleasant suprise to glance at the NL ERA leaders today and see Mr. Volquez perched on top of the board.

Matt700wlw
04-30-2008, 03:04 PM
Gotta say...it was a pleasant suprise to glance at the NL ERA leaders today and see Mr. Volquez perched on top of the board.

If he were a Yankee or Red Sox, he'd be the biggest story in baseball.

RedsManRick
04-30-2008, 03:05 PM
If he is that good, which we apparently feel he is, just give him enough money and get it done.

Maybe he's got enough money and would rather spend time with his family.

bucksfan2
04-30-2008, 03:05 PM
If he's that good, which I suspect he would be if he were a pitching coach, have him in the lower levels...

Because he doesn't want to. I am sure the reds have wanted Soto to be a full time coach for years now but he keeps declining.

edabbs44
04-30-2008, 03:07 PM
Don't know if its been seen, but Arroyo is going Sunday now, w/Johnny pushed back to Tues.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080430&content_id=2614614&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Hopefully that isn't a warning shot.

edabbs44
04-30-2008, 03:09 PM
Here's a thought...if 2009 is the year...how about we bring all the young guys (Bruce, Bailey, whomever) they're anticipating to help get the team over the hump in 2009 right now so they can all go through their lumps together?

Otherwise, it's the same process next year....

Unless, of course, the young guys are trading chips (Jocketty's done it before)

I've been signing that song for the past two years. It has been quite obvious that barring a serious influx of cash, this team would not have been ready before then. The whole "win now" mentality has set this team back.

If the mentality was that 2009 would have been the target for the jump, then this team would be more prepared than they are now.

M2
04-30-2008, 03:20 PM
There's a difference between taking your lumps and suffering a hellacious beatdown. Promoting kids because you want them to be ready on your arbitrary team timeline completely misses the reality that kids are only ever going to be ready on their timeline.

membengal
04-30-2008, 03:25 PM
Hopefully that isn't a warning shot.

I simply read it as smart management of an asset.

Matt700wlw
04-30-2008, 03:40 PM
Because he doesn't want to. I am sure the reds have wanted Soto to be a full time coach for years now but he keeps declining.

That's fine. I meant if he were to become one, I'd want him in the lower levels.

Blitz Dorsey
04-30-2008, 03:56 PM
If anyone saw the interview with Soto a couple games after opening day, he couldn't wait to get back home to the DR. He loves helping the Reds, but he was clearly homesick after being away. And that was less than a couple months. We're fortunate the Reds have him in the role that they do. He's definitely not a guy that wants to be coaching full time.

Aronchis
04-30-2008, 05:02 PM
I simply read it as smart management of an asset.

or a sign that Johnny's ceiling is limited. Being a high leverage closer/setup man isn't the worst thing that could happen. With Harang,Volquez and Bailey the Reds have 3 big righties. Who knows, maybe Belisle will make it 4(not that I am optimistic on that).

Small pitchers should always be discriminated against because alot of them simply don't have what it takes to succeed starting. Guys like Oswalt that do are few and far between.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2008, 05:17 PM
Except Johnny Cueto does have what it takes to be a great starting pitcher. It's hard to find a pitcher with three pitches like his. Keep him as a starter and watch him become the best Reds homegrown starter in decades.

fearofpopvol1
04-30-2008, 05:18 PM
There's a difference between taking your lumps and suffering a hellacious beatdown. Promoting kids because you want them to be ready on your arbitrary team timeline completely misses the reality that kids are only ever going to be ready on their timeline.

I agree. It's one thing if it's September, but it's too early to be doing that now. Though, at this moment, it's hard to overlook the fact that Bruce is doing very well in AAA while Patterson is struggling mightily at the bigs. Just sayin'.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2008, 05:57 PM
I agree. It's one thing if it's September, but it's too early to be doing that now. Though, at this moment, it's hard to overlook the fact that Bruce is doing very well in AAA while Patterson is struggling mightily at the bigs. Just sayin'.

I thought M2 was talking about Cueto. But I could be wrong.

Spring~Fields
04-30-2008, 06:05 PM
Said during the game today that they're going to have Mario Soto brought up to work with Cueto on his mechanics and delivery.

I thought that was what Dick Pole the pitching coach is for.

Send Cueto, Bray and Coffey over to St. Louis and see if Duncan can get them ironed out. ;)

fearofpopvol1
04-30-2008, 06:11 PM
I thought M2 was talking about Cueto. But I could be wrong.

I thought he was talking about a youth movement in general (pretty much Bruce and Bailey on top of the other young players already with the Reds), but also, I could be wrong.

OnBaseMachine
05-01-2008, 01:25 PM
Most even deal of the winter -- Josh Hamilton from Cincinnati to Texas for Edinson Volquez. Who got the better of this deal? Maybe nobody. Hamilton leads the major leagues in RBIs (32), and leads the AL in extra-base hits (17). And Volquez leads the NL in ERA (1.23), and trails only John Smoltz and Jonathan Sanchez in strikeout ratio (10. 1 per 9 IP). When was the last time any trade looked this rewarding for both teams?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings

M2
05-01-2008, 01:49 PM
I thought he was talking about a youth movement in general (pretty much Bruce and Bailey on top of the other young players already with the Reds), but also, I could be wrong.

I guess I should have specified that I was talking about pitchers (though pitchers were what we were discussing in this thread). Bruce is a completely different matter (and the Reds don't look to have any other position prospects meriting promotion to the majors any time soon). I've got no problem with promoting Bruce.

For the record, I like the lumps Cueto's taking and I'm interested to see what he delivers in his next start. Two of the things I've liked about Cueto as he's risen through the system is he seems to be a fast study and he seems to bounce back strong from the occasional bad start. Now those attributes are being put to the test in the majors and I'm very cool with that. Since I never expected it to be easy for Cueto, I actually think this trial by fire is going well.

wheels
05-01-2008, 02:27 PM
I guess I should have specified that I was talking about pitchers (though pitchers were what we were discussing in this thread). Bruce is a completely different matter (and the Reds don't look to have any other position prospects meriting promotion to the majors any time soon). I've got no problem with promoting Bruce.

For the record, I like the lumps Cueto's taking and I'm interested to see what he delivers in his next start. Two of the things I've liked about Cueto as he's risen through the system is he seems to be a fast study and he seems to bounce back strong from the occasional bad start. Now those attributes are being put to the test in the majors and I'm very cool with that. Since I never expected it to be easy for Cueto, I actually think this trial by fire is going well.

Couldn't agree more.

That last flameout was borne purely out of immaturity. He got dinked a little, walked a guy, got squeezed by the umpire and came apart mentally.

That's what happens to kids and it makes for good drama.

Falls City Beer
05-01-2008, 04:27 PM
Couldn't agree more.

That last flameout was borne purely out of immaturity. He got dinked a little, walked a guy, got squeezed by the umpire and came apart mentally.

That's what happens to kids and it makes for good drama.

I'm guessing the Reds don't have a plan B for the hellacious beatdowns. That's a problem. It's Cueto or drown.

membengal
05-01-2008, 05:17 PM
No, the plan B should be Fogg. It's what I want him to be, available to step in on those outings when Cueto runs into the normal-maturation-bad-days-on-the-mound issues.

Falls City Beer
05-01-2008, 05:24 PM
No, the plan B should be Fogg. It's what I want him to be, available to step in on those outings when Cueto runs into the normal-maturation-bad-days-on-the-mound issues.

I'm not really talking about who takes over for Cueto in long relief. I'm talking about what happens if Cueto suffers 5 or 6 of these two inning maulings in a row. What contingency plan do they have for Cueto? MLB relief? demotion? keep plugging away?

I guess I don't cotton to the beatdown school method.

membengal
05-01-2008, 06:00 PM
Well, I am figuring Fogg is there to manage the beatdowns. Get to him before the beatdown in any given game gets too serious.

Falls City Beer
05-01-2008, 06:14 PM
Well, I am figuring Fogg is there to manage the beatdowns. Get to him before the beatdown in any given game gets too serious.

This has all the piquancy of attempting to use an uncooked hot dog to plug the hole in the Titanic.

fearofpopvol1
05-01-2008, 06:16 PM
This has all the piquancy of attempting to use an uncooked hot dog to plug the hole in the Titanic.

It's still a plan. May not be a good one, but it's a plan no less.

nate
05-01-2008, 06:37 PM
This has all the piquancy of attempting to use an uncooked hot dog to plug the hole in the Titanic.

I dunno, the guy who said this (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1619022&postcount=90):


And right on cue, I was right: the Reds desperately needed Fogg in the long-man role last night, when Cueto clearly didn't have it.

But keep on questioning my acumen.


...seemed to think it was somewhat piquant...toothsome, even! :cool:

Caveat Emperor
05-01-2008, 07:03 PM
I'm not really talking about who takes over for Cueto in long relief. I'm talking about what happens if Cueto suffers 5 or 6 of these two inning maulings in a row. What contingency plan do they have for Cueto? MLB relief? demotion? keep plugging away?

I guess I don't cotton to the beatdown school method.

What, you don't like the Brian Reith School of Hard Knocks™?

As for what the Reds do if he gets a few more beatdowns under his belt, I assume what they'll do is the same as every other time this happens with a player: make up some phantom non-serious injury, send him to the 15 day DL and then give him a month in the minors on a "rehab" assignment.

M2
05-01-2008, 07:21 PM
I'm guessing the Reds don't have a plan B for the hellacious beatdowns. That's a problem. It's Cueto or drown.

No franchise has that plan. Literally. Not one. Name any pitcher expected to do well on a given team and it's that guy or drown (though the Angels have survived without Lackey and Escobar and it's hard to say enough good things about that).

Frankly, having Fogg on hand constitutes a top flight plan B. Short outing? Throw Fogg into the breach. Kid can't cut it and needs to go back to the minors? Throw Fogg into the breach.

Fogg isn't a good pitcher, but he isn't Joe Mays either.

Meanwhile, I'm not particularly worried about Cueto. He was always going to struggle and run into a few games where he comes apart. That's what rookie pitchers do. Yet he's also shown the pitching chops necessary to move beyond those struggles. I'm not saying anything is guaranteed, because nothing is with young pitchers, but I'm generally pleased with the way things are going with Cueto so far. You and I both knew it wasn't going to be a cakewalk for him (and we said as much before the season started).

Falls City Beer
05-01-2008, 07:29 PM
No franchise has that plan. Literally. Not one. Name any pitcher expected to do well on a given team and it's that guy or drown (though the Angels have survived without Lackey and Escobar and it's hard to say enough good things about that).

Frankly, having Fogg on hand constitutes a top flight plan B. Short outing? Throw Fogg into the breach. Kid can't cut it and needs to go back to the minors? Throw Fogg into the breach.

Fogg isn't a good pitcher, but he isn't Joe Mays either.

Meanwhile, I'm not particularly worried about Cueto. He was always going to struggle and run into a few games where he comes apart. That's what rookie pitchers do. Yet he's also shown the pitching chops necessary to move beyond those struggles. I'm not saying anything is guaranteed, because nothing is with young pitchers, but I'm generally pleased with the way things are going with Cueto so far. You and I both knew it wasn't going to be a cakewalk for him (and we said as much before the season started).

I'll start getting pleased when he retires hitters again. I doubt he's ready at all for the majors.

Falls City Beer
05-01-2008, 07:30 PM
What, you don't like the Brian Reith School of Hard Knocks™?

As for what the Reds do if he gets a few more beatdowns under his belt, I assume what they'll do is the same as every other time this happens with a player: make up some phantom non-serious injury, send him to the 15 day DL and then give him a month in the minors on a "rehab" assignment.

This sounds right.

jojo
05-01-2008, 07:48 PM
I'll start getting pleased when he retires hitters again. I doubt he's ready at all for the majors.

He's got a k/9= 8.49, a BB/9=1.54 (K/BB=5.50) and a FIP=4.14 all of which are above average for a major league starter let alone on in the NL....

If he's not ready for the majors while doing that, what is the point of sending him down to the minors? Why not just break it gently to him-he needs to find another profession.

M2
05-01-2008, 07:51 PM
I'll start getting pleased when he retires hitters again. I doubt he's ready at all for the majors.

He's not ready to dominate without first experiencing some trouble. Pretty much no one ever is. Hitters adjust, constantly, even during at-bats. And you're dealing with a whole new kind of fatigue because every fifth day you're giving maximum effort. A rookie can hit two, three, even four walls during the season.

Cueto just hit one. Now he's got to climb over it. IMO, he will and he'll look pretty good until he hits the next wall and then we'll be treated to everyone running around in shock that a rookie pitcher hit a wall again.

jojo
05-02-2008, 07:04 AM
Dave Cameron weighs in on Cueto in a piece written for fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cant-stop-the-bleeding...


The gist: Mario where for art thou!!!!!!!!!!!

jojo
05-02-2008, 07:07 AM
BTW, Dave also weighs in on Volquez (though its really more a discussion of the trade):

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-win-win-deal

the gist: Texas wins in a deal that helps both teams....

edabbs44
05-02-2008, 07:39 AM
I'm guessing the Reds don't have a plan B for the hellacious beatdowns. That's a problem. It's Cueto or drown.

Maybe it's drown now, but it will help him swim when it really counts.

This year doesn't count.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 08:14 AM
Maybe it's drown now, but it will help him swim when it really counts.

This year doesn't count.

I guess. I hear that a lot. But I'm not sure I see it in reality all that often.

edabbs44
05-02-2008, 08:21 AM
I guess. I hear that a lot. But I'm not sure I see it in reality all that often.

That's why I have been blasting the FO for the past few years. It's like "Win now, but start multiple rookies in key spots." That doesn't really work in practice.

Ltlabner
05-02-2008, 08:59 AM
That's why I have been blasting the FO for the past few years. It's like "Win now, but start multiple rookies in key spots." That doesn't really work in practice.

Thank god your oft touted plan of drafting better tallent, paying more draft bonusus and going gonzo in the international markets woln't lead to having more rookies on the field at any one given time.

lollipopcurve
05-02-2008, 08:59 AM
the gist: Texas wins in a deal that helps both teams....

By definition, in a win-win trade both teams win. Cameron notes that Hamilton is "a lower risk proposition" than Volquez by virtue of the fact that he's a hitter. Yet, he fails to touch on the fact that Hamilton has been unable to stay healthy for an extended period of time at any point in his career -- apart from his addiction problems. Seems to me a major oversight in his evaluation of the trade.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 09:06 AM
Thank god your oft touted plan of drafting better tallent, paying more draft bonusus and going gonzo in the international markets woln't lead to having more rookies on the field at any one given time.

I see what you're saying; as I've said before, I'm just not a fan of throwing a full starter's load at a 22 year old.

By contrast, I think Volquez is primed for a full starter's load. Even if he struggles.

edabbs44
05-02-2008, 09:21 AM
Thank god your oft touted plan of drafting better tallent, paying more draft bonusus and going gonzo in the international markets woln't lead to having more rookies on the field at any one given time.

Whatever that means.

But that same oft touted plan doesn't include spending millions on Cordero, Stanton, Weathers, Hatteberg, Castro, Cormier, Patterson, Lohse and others when the team just isn't ready for prime time.

Ltlabner
05-02-2008, 09:26 AM
Whatever that means..

You are constantly haranging that we need to draft better, pay more draft bonuses and cull the international markets for more young tallent.

More young tallent in the pipeline means a larger percentage chance of having more rookies/inexperincened players on the field at any one given time.

Now you are saying you have been railing on the FO for putting too many rookies at key positions.

You've completley controdicted yourself and can't have it both ways.

jojo
05-02-2008, 09:27 AM
By definition, in a win-win trade both teams win.

Just because both teams get something useful doesn't mean that one team didn't get a better deal. If both players hit their ceilings, Hamilton will be more valuable.


Cameron notes that Hamilton is "a lower risk proposition" than Volquez by virtue of the fact that he's a hitter. Yet, he fails to touch on the fact that Hamilton has been unable to stay healthy for an extended period of time at any point in his career -- apart from his addiction problems. Seems to me a major oversight in his evaluation of the trade.

As stated, performance-wise, Volquez is a greater risk than Hamilton. Health-wise, Volquez is also a risk. Cameron is probably calling their injury risks a wash. You can always bring up the point with him at fangraphs to see how (or if) he factored in Hamilton's injury risk.

Ltlabner
05-02-2008, 09:28 AM
I see what you're saying; as I've said before, I'm just not a fan of throwing a full starter's load at a 22 year old.

By contrast, I think Volquez is primed for a full starter's load. Even if he struggles.

Were you responding to someone else, because your comments don't seem to match what I was saying to edabbs. Then again I'm in a hurry to get out the door so maybe I'm missing something.

I agree re: Cueto in that while I think he's very tallented, I don't think you can just plug him in and expect him to dominate from day one. He's young and will stuggle. But thus far he's shown he's got the tallent to push through the learning cruve. Will he have the emotional maturity to do so? Not sure yet.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 09:31 AM
Were you responding to someone else, because your comments don't seem to match what I was saying to edabbs. Then again I'm in a hurry to get out the door so maybe I'm missing something.

I agree re: Cueto in that while I think he's very tallented, I don't think you can just plug him in and expect him to dominate from day one. He's young and will stuggle. But thus far he's shown he's got the tallent to push through the learning cruve. Will he have the emotional maturity to do so? Not sure yet.

No, I was responding to your point that "going young" means having lots of young guys playing at once. I agree, and I have no problem with a team of a bunch of guys learning. I think 22 is young, emotionally and physically. That's all.

I think it's a dangerous game of chicken to play attempting to "push" a kid who's not ready.

membengal
05-02-2008, 09:37 AM
FCB: He's ready. Look at the stats that jojo laid out a page ago.

Go back and look at other debuts of guys in the last little bit that I put together several pages ago. He's ready. He will take lumps. He will have good outings. That is all extremely normal. I suspect you know that. I just don't see the need to over-react to every normal occurrence, something most of us expected with Cueto. Gracious.

edabbs44
05-02-2008, 09:43 AM
You are constantly haranging that we need to draft better, pay more draft bonuses and cull the international markets for more young tallent.

More young tallent in the pipeline means a larger percentage chance of having more rookies/inexperincened players on the field at any one given time.

Now you are saying you have been railing on the FO for putting too many rookies at key positions.

You've completley controdicted yourself and can't have it both ways.

100% wrong.

I don't have the "win now at all costs" mentality. So while I want more young talent in the pipeline, I am willing to take a few years on the chin for the future of the franchise. $46MM on a closer is a complete waste of money when your team isn't ready.

I have been railing on the FO because they didn't have a plan. Win now or win later? Holding on to all your prospects for the future while trying to win now is a nearly impossible task unless you have unlimited money to drive your payroll into a NY level. Especially when you figure in where the roster currently is.

That's what I have been saying for a long time. No contradictions.

Now...when they signed Cordero, I felt that they had to make more moves "now" in order to justify that signing. Which they didn't. Which is why I'm not shocked that the roster is a mess and the team isn't performing well.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 09:43 AM
FCB: He's ready. Look at the stats that jojo laid out a page ago.

Go back and look at other debuts of guys in the last little bit that I put together several pages ago. He's ready. He will take lumps. He will have good outings. That is all extremely normal. I suspect you know that. I just don't see the need to over-react to every normal occurrence, something most of us expected with Cueto. Gracious.

Kids that fail all the time in school eventually drop out.

I'm a big believer that failure isn't the greatest teacher--or rather, isn't the teacher most folks would have you believe it is. And while those stats are nice and everything, they aren't really predictive of anything.

I think most folks are simply willing themselves to believe that nothing long-term can go wrong with a guy who gets repeatedly drubbed (even if his pitch count is managed).

membengal
05-02-2008, 09:44 AM
No, they are not predictive, BUT, they are indicitive, and the indication is that he is where he needs to be.

nate
05-02-2008, 09:49 AM
Kids that fail all the time in school eventually drop out.

I'm a big believer that failure isn't the greatest teacher--or rather, isn't the teacher most folks would have you believe it is. And while those stats are nice and everything, they aren't really predictive of anything.

I think most folks are simply willing themselves to believe that nothing long-term can go wrong with a guy who gets repeatedly drubbed (even if his pitch count is managed).

Failure as a teacher, no.

Failure as a lesson, yes.

Repeated failure should result in a change. So far, Cueto's had a stretch of bad innings. Yes, he's young. How he bounces back will let us know if he's ready to take another step forward. If not, he can become the fifth starter, long man, bullpen guy, Louisville, etc.

lollipopcurve
05-02-2008, 09:50 AM
Just because both teams get something useful doesn't mean that one team didn't get a better deal. If both players hit their ceilings, Hamilton will be more valuable.

Proclaiming a greater victory for one team over another after one month -- especially when both players are performing extremely well, as noted by the author -- is ludicrous. Sometimes folks rush in to claim victory on a prediction or judgment they've made previously, only to find later that they were wrong. Let's let these players get some seasons under their belts before announcing a verdict, I say.

You can also look at it this way:

Could the Reds replace Hamilton? Bruce and Votto are both LH power with middle-of-the-lineup potential. Votto can play LF.

Could the Rangers replace Volquez? It's said they have good young arms on the farm, but those arms are nowhere near major-league ready, and, as a result, they may never pan out.

The Rangers may have filled a hole and sprung a leak at the same time.

jojo
05-02-2008, 10:21 AM
Kids that fail all the time in school eventually drop out.

I'm a big believer that failure isn't the greatest teacher--or rather, isn't the teacher most folks would have you believe it is. And while those stats are nice and everything, they aren't really predictive of anything.

I think most folks are simply willing themselves to believe that nothing long-term can go wrong with a guy who gets repeatedly drubbed (even if his pitch count is managed).

He's had 3 "good" starts, 2 "looks like a rookie" starts and 1 drubbing.

Why don't we wait until he actually gets repeatedly drubbed before we lament his repeated drubbing?

jojo
05-02-2008, 10:34 AM
Proclaiming a greater victory for one team over another after one month -- especially when both players are performing extremely well, as noted by the author -- is ludicrous. Sometimes folks rush in to claim victory on a prediction or judgment they've made previously, only to find later that they were wrong. Let's let these players get some seasons under their belts before announcing a verdict, I say.

Dave was critiquing the rationale for the trade and weighing the chances of it working out for both clubs. Really, April's numbers had very little to do with his ultimate conclusion.


The Rangers may have filled a hole and sprung a leak at the same time.

The Rangers have a lot of holes and as a philosophy have decided to build around players with lower risks associated with their development/performance.

Concerning the rarity of each player (i.e. how hard is it to replace either) Dave addressed that... In his opinion Hamilton is a much rarer property-a position player who plays plus defense with the potential to be a 5-6 win above replacement bat. It's a cliche to suggest outfielders are a dime a dozen and thus are easy to replace, but those kind of outfielders don't fit the cliche....

lollipopcurve
05-02-2008, 10:47 AM
The Rangers have a lot of holes and as a philosophy have decided to build around players with lower risks associated with their development/performance.

Doubt it. Hamilton remains a high risk proposition. If he's not on the field, he is not performing.

They traded for some very young players when they dealt Tex -- Andrus and Feliz were teenagers. They drafted HS arms Main and Beavan in the first round -- not your textbook low-risk draft strategy.

jojo
05-02-2008, 10:49 AM
Doubt it. Hamilton remains a high risk proposition. If he's not on the field, he is not performing.

They traded for some very young players when they dealt Tex -- Andrus and Feliz were teenagers. They drafted HS arms Main and Beavan in the first round -- not your textbook low-risk draft strategy.

They have always drafted for ceiling when it comes to arms I think though I'm not an authority on their drafts.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2008, 10:52 AM
BTW, Dave also weighs in on Volquez (though its really more a discussion of the trade):

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-win-win-deal

the gist: Texas wins in a deal that helps both teams....

BP had an interesting take on Hamilton yesterday:

4. Josh Hamilton. Hamilton already had an interesting career path through one year ago, but it’s even more so now. See, Hamilton’s injury problems last year spread his rookie season out in a way that arguably prevented the league from adjusting to him. Hamilton missed two weeks around Memorial Day, five weeks in July and August, and the last two weeks of the season. Hamilton played more than six games against just three teams, and against two of those, the Astros and Pirates, he posted terrible overall lines.

Getting traded to the Rangers over the winter extended this nominal honeymoon period—new league, new pitchers, new faces. Hamilton is off to a .330/.379/.591 start, comparable to last season’s, but I think it’s important to note that he hasn’t had to go through the adjustment period many young players do.

Hamilton is a fantastic story and obviously a tremendous baseball talent. In his career, though, he hit .295/.342/.476 in the minors, and he’s at .303/.371/.564 in the majors, all of that coming after playing not a lick from 2003 through 2005, and getting just a few weeks of play in 2006. There’s enough wackiness in that kind of information, and in his path through two leagues over the last 13 months, to warrant some healthy skepticism about his ability to sustain his performance.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7454

wheels
05-02-2008, 11:03 AM
I can see FCB's point, or at least I can understand why he's been given pause. Mainly because of the high washout rates for young pitchers.

I have no problem with that thought process. I'm not reading that he thinks Cueto "will" ultimately fail.

He's simply calling for erring on the side EXTREME caution.

I happen to think he's an outlier though. In the same vein that I think Volquez is ready now because he's two years older, I think Cueto is something of a prodigy, and will quickly right his ship because he's a freak. Kids just don't attack the strike zone that way, and it's usually the first hurdle for any youngster.

I may not agree 100% with him in this particular instance, but chances are he's right because he's got history on his side.

As an aside, I do think he's limiting his pitch count naturally because of his pitch efficiency. It's gonna really work in his favor as the year rolls on. He's far more polished than any young pitcher I've seen in a Reds uni in a long time, maybe ever.

fearofpopvol1
05-02-2008, 01:51 PM
BP had an interesting take on Hamilton yesterday:

4. Josh Hamilton. Hamilton already had an interesting career path through one year ago, but it’s even more so now. See, Hamilton’s injury problems last year spread his rookie season out in a way that arguably prevented the league from adjusting to him. Hamilton missed two weeks around Memorial Day, five weeks in July and August, and the last two weeks of the season. Hamilton played more than six games against just three teams, and against two of those, the Astros and Pirates, he posted terrible overall lines.

Getting traded to the Rangers over the winter extended this nominal honeymoon period—new league, new pitchers, new faces. Hamilton is off to a .330/.379/.591 start, comparable to last season’s, but I think it’s important to note that he hasn’t had to go through the adjustment period many young players do.

Hamilton is a fantastic story and obviously a tremendous baseball talent. In his career, though, he hit .295/.342/.476 in the minors, and he’s at .303/.371/.564 in the majors, all of that coming after playing not a lick from 2003 through 2005, and getting just a few weeks of play in 2006. There’s enough wackiness in that kind of information, and in his path through two leagues over the last 13 months, to warrant some healthy skepticism about his ability to sustain his performance.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7454

Yes, but you could also say that the NL has not adjusted to Volquez either. No team has seen him more than once at this point.

I was and still am a fan of the trade, though. I'm just playing devil's advocate.

The bottom line though...it really is too early to trumpet that any one won this trade. We might have a better idea by the end of the season though.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2008, 02:06 PM
Yes, but you could also say that the NL has not adjusted to Volquez either. No team has seen him more than once at this point.

I was and still am a fan of the trade, though. I'm just playing devil's advocate.

The bottom line though...it really is too early to trumpet that any one won this trade. We might have a better idea by the end of the season though.

True but the Phillies saw him twice in spring training and that didn't stop him from pitching a very good game against them in his first regular season start. FWIW, I think Hamilton will make the necessary adjustments and maintain a .900+ OPS. He's a great, great player but I'll take Edinson Volquez.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 03:00 PM
He's a great, great player but I'll take Edinson Volquez.

Imagine the Reds' record without Volquez.

fearofpopvol1
05-02-2008, 09:41 PM
That Volquez sucks. His ERA was inflated from 1.23 to 1.27. What's wrong with him??

9 more K's for Volquez tonight in 6 IP. And that was against a very good Braves lineup. That jack to McCann was really the only blemish (1 ER). Patterson botched that ball, which was rightfully charged as an error. Hopefully the Reds can come back and get Volquez a win.

VR
05-02-2008, 10:08 PM
Imagine the Reds' record without Volquez.

Hmmm, imagine the Reds record with another 20 rbi's from their cleanup spot.


That said, I love Edinson...just wish it was Dunn or Griff in the deal, not Hammy.

That BA article is just poor in it's reasoning. You can be an apologist for any young player using selective reasoning like that. Wow.

OnBaseMachine
05-03-2008, 01:36 AM
More praise for Volquez from opponents:

It was the first homer that Volquez allowed this season, after 32 2/3 innings. His record is now 4-1 with a 1.27 ERA in six starts.

The McCann changeup was the only bad pitch Volquez let go of all night. His fastball reached 96 mph at one point and was routinely clocked at 95 mph on the Turner Field radar gun.

"He's a stud," McCann said. "Anybody who can throw 96 and their best pitch is a changeup, that tells you something."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080502&content_id=2628520&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Oh, and I love this:

Volquez repeatedly watched video of that fateful pitch on a laptop computer screen.

"I had a fastball in my head, and I changed my mind and threw a changeup," Volquez said. "Wrong pitch. It was right in the middle. That's what happens when you miss a pitch in the big leagues."

reds44
05-03-2008, 01:40 AM
Kid is just a joy to watch. Potential to be an all-star this year.

He should be 5-0.

OnBaseMachine
05-03-2008, 01:41 AM
Too, too bad. Volquez painted another gem - six innings, four hits, two runs, one earned run, two walks, nine strikeouts and all it got him was his first loss. He is 4-1 with a 1.27 ERA.

Volquez carried one broad smile after the game and when manager Dusty Baker came up to him and said, “I’m sorry we didn’t score you any runs,” Volquez said, “Hey, my fault. I made a bad pitch.”

Said Baker, “You love that. This guy is good and this guy is going to be a great major-league pitcher.

There were fireworks after the game. It was good to hear some noise in the park.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

OnBaseMachine
05-03-2008, 01:46 AM
Kid is just a joy to watch. Potential to be an all-star this year.

He should be 5-0.

He should be 6-0.

He threw five shutout innings in a start at Pittsburgh and received a no decision as the Reds lost 1-0. And then tonight he allowed just one earned run in six innings and lost.

I know it's early and the kid is going to take some lumps, but I agree he is a potential All-Star candidate. Kid is second in the majors in ERA and leads the majors with 42 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. I'm going to be purchasing myself an Edinson Volquez jersey here very, very soon. Along with a Cueto and Bruce.

fearofpopvol1
05-03-2008, 01:46 AM
If Patterson doesn't drop that ball, it's only 1 run too. May have changed some things when EdE got to 2nd with no outs.

Screwball
05-03-2008, 02:38 AM
Just like I stopped everything and watched Josh Hamiltonn hit, so do I too to watch Edinson Volquez pitch. He's a stud through and through. The notion that he'll be out of the rotation was laughable then, and even more laughable now.

dougdirt
05-03-2008, 02:55 AM
Volquez leads the NL in ERA and leads all of baseball in Strikeouts (Harang is second btw). When was the last time the Reds could say that in May?

fearofpopvol1
05-03-2008, 03:18 AM
Volquez leads the NL in ERA and leads all of baseball in Strikeouts (Harang is second btw). When was the last time the Reds could say that in May?

Many here have argued that the pitching still sucks and that it's only been improved minimally.

cincyinco
05-03-2008, 03:32 AM
I think the pitching is obviously improved to those who've watched it.

Harang is bein Harang.

Volquez is a stud.

Arroyo hasn't found his rythm, but seems poised to bounce back a bit.

Cueto has shown the flashes.

By my estimation, we're 3 to 4 deep - as long as Cueto doesn't implode. Where as last year, we were only 2 - with harang and arroyo or bust. The results may not have translated fully yet, but the improvement is there now and the potential improvement it has if everyone can get going for a couple stretches is staring you in the face.

Caveat Emperor
05-03-2008, 03:41 AM
Concerning the rarity of each player (i.e. how hard is it to replace either) Dave addressed that... In his opinion Hamilton is a much rarer property-a position player who plays plus defense with the potential to be a 5-6 win above replacement bat. It's a cliche to suggest outfielders are a dime a dozen and thus are easy to replace, but those kind of outfielders don't fit the cliche....

True.

But, I'll never fault a team for deciding not to build their future around a guy who is, as a result of his addiction, now living his life one day at a time.

Hamilton is a great story, but do you want to count on him to answer the bell every day?

GAC
05-03-2008, 04:07 AM
If Patterson doesn't drop that ball, it's only 1 run too. May have changed some things when EdE got to 2nd with no outs.

Kinda ironic that the guy we got to replace Hamilton in CF in order to acquire Volquez is the guy that screwed him.

http://www.8ball.co.uk/productimages/31842-2.jpg

But I'll tell ya what - anyone who watched that kid pitch last night, mix it up like he did, and pitch with such command, authority, and confidence, even after giving up that HR, has to be impressed. I certainly was.

jojo
05-03-2008, 08:40 AM
True.

But, I'll never fault a team for deciding not to build their future around a guy who is, as a result of his addiction, now living his life one day at a time.

Hamilton is a great story, but do you want to count on him to answer the bell every day?

Here's my first post in the subject of the trade:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=1522584


I think patience is the keyword. At 24, Volquez is pretty much what we all hope Bailey won't be in three years- a "high ceiling" arm still struggling to develop major league command. He's goy a very high ceiling but it's not likely he'll reach it (and hence why he was expendable). That said, there is nothing saying he can't reach it and he's in the right league to give him the best shot. Volquez is pretty similar to another guy that I've suggested the Reds target-Edwin Jackson. Volquez has plus velocity but doesn't command his fastball. His change up is really good but he's going to struggle at times when he's not commanding his heat because it will make his change less effective.

I like the addition. Volquez is an instant upgrade over the Reds back end 4/5 of '07 (maybe as much as a 2 win impact if he can manage to log enough innings) and it's a move that looks toward the future. For what it's worth Marcels is the only projection system i've seen for Volquez. It projects him to log 78 IP with an ERA of 5.02. He'll undoubtedly get more innings as a Red but the ERA of 5.00 seems reasonable though the league change should give him a boost. Expecting league average is probably too optimistic but hey, it's the time of year where hope springs eternal. His addition allows the Reds to break Cueto in as a high leverage bullpen arm-a role I think Cueto could really help the Reds in next season.

The Reds assume more risk though compared to Hamilton but honestly while his '07 validated the scouts we still have no idea what Hamilton's true performance level is or whether he'll be able to play a full season. Unfortunately this may make an extension for Dunn more likely.

membengal
05-03-2008, 11:34 AM
Guess we know now not to spend a second discussing Javy Valentin's snap impressions early in camp ever again...

OnBaseMachine
05-03-2008, 11:41 AM
On the front of the DDN Reds section there is a Reds picture with this caption below it: While Reds pitcher Edwin Voquez had a quality start, Atlanta's Tim Hudson had a better night.

Who the heck is Edwin Voquez?

princeton
05-03-2008, 12:05 PM
trade is working out great for the Reds. We should extend the GM's contract.


oh-- never mind.

reds44
05-03-2008, 12:18 PM
trade is working out great for the Reds. We should extend the GM's contract.


oh-- never mind.
And then there is the fact we are 12-18 and can't hit.

VR
05-03-2008, 12:51 PM
Volquez leads the NL in ERA and leads all of baseball in Strikeouts (Harang is second btw). When was the last time the Reds could say that in May?

Don't kid yourself Doug, pitching IS the problem :)

dougdirt
05-03-2008, 12:54 PM
Don't kid yourself Doug, pitching IS the problem :)

Ah crap, you are right. I am such a fool for missing that :D

Caveat Emperor
05-03-2008, 02:05 PM
And then there is the fact we are 12-18 and can't hit.

They hit like crazy for the better part of a decade.

How'd that work out for them?

reds44
05-03-2008, 02:14 PM
They hit like crazy for the better part of a decade.

How'd that work out for them?
About as well as this is.

jojo
05-03-2008, 02:33 PM
Ah crap, you are right. I am such a fool for missing that :D


'08 NL ave ERA:
starter: 4.29
pen: 3.77

'08 Reds ERA:
starter: 4.83
pen: 3.27

For all of the excitement surrounding Cueto and Volquez, the Reds rotation has thus far been a half run below league average. It's the pen that has been an advantage for their staff through the first month. Overall they are still in the bottom half of the NL (rank 10th).

In '07 they were ranked 15th by staff ERA.


'07 NL ave ERA:
starter: 4.64
pen: 4.08

'07 Reds ERA:
starter: 4.86
pen: 5.13

So the reality is that the Reds rotation is actually performing worse against the league this season compared to how it was relative the league in 2007. It's the performance of the Reds pen that has made the difference through the first month of their '08 season.

VR
05-03-2008, 04:01 PM
So the reality is that the Reds rotation is actually performing worse against the league this season compared to how it was relative the league in 2007. It's the performance of the Reds pen that has made the difference through the first month of their '08 season.

It's a bit more complex than just era's. Taking into account quality starts, total innings pen/starters, key peripherals.

Everything you look at points to fantastic in rotation spots 1&2, above average at #3, below average at #4, and trainwreck at #5.

Outside of about 6 starts.....the Reds starters have given the team an exceptional chance to win.

OnBaseMachine
05-03-2008, 04:24 PM
One thing I haven't seen mentioned on here is the continued improvement of Volquez's curveball. He threw some nasty curveballs last night. He also threw solid nice curveballs against the Giants last Sunday but he mostly just used it on strike one, but last night he used it more often. He struckout Francoeur and Escobar both on curveballs. He's only going to get better as he gets more comfortable throwing that pitch.

Chip R
05-03-2008, 07:11 PM
Enjoy his next start, boys, cause he'll be out of the rotation after that one. :D

wheels
05-03-2008, 08:56 PM
It was fun watching him while he lasted.

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2008, 02:02 AM
Soto: 'One mistake and they'll make you pay'
Listen to this article or download audio file.Click-2-Listen

By Hal McCoy

Staff Writer

Sunday, May 04, 2008

ATLANTA — Mario Soto's first words to Edinson Volquez Friday after Volquez gave up a home run to Atlanta's Brian McCann on a high changeup: "I know that pitch. I remember that pitch, that high changeup."

The home run to McCann cost Volquez a 2-0 loss. Soto's high pitch cost him a no-hitter, "A high change-up to George Hendricks (St. Louis Cardinals) on a 3-and-2 pitch with two outs in the ninth. Cost me a no-hitter."

Said Soto, "This is the big leagues. One mistake and they'll make you pay. I'll never forget that."

Soto is in Atlanta at the behest of manger Dusty Baker to tutor Johnny Cueto.

"I watched him on TV when I was in the Dominican Republic," said Soto. "His mechanics are not the same. He is falling away toward the first base side too much, sometimes before he even releases the ball. He'll pick it up. Right now is a good time to learn."

After holding the Arizona Diamondbacks to one hit and striking out 10 in his major-league debut, Cueto has since has gone 0-3 with a 6.94 ERA and his mentor, Soto, was given a 911 call.

Volquez impresses Cox

Speaking of Volquez, Atlanta manager Bobby Cox is mightily impressed. And Cox has managed one or five notable pitchers (Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery).

"I like him a lot," said Cox. "He is really good and his stuff is so good that he makes guys swing at bad pitches, and that's the sign of a good pitcher. He has great poise."

And Cox was bubbly about the entire Reds starting staff, calling it, "Probably the best they've had in 10 years. That Cueto kid is good. Volquez is a keeper. Put them in there with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and that makes them pretty damn formidable."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/05/04/ddn050408redsbravesweb.html

Topcat
05-04-2008, 06:39 AM
'08 NL ave ERA:
starter: 4.29
pen: 3.77

'08 Reds ERA:
starter: 4.83
pen: 3.27

For all of the excitement surrounding Cueto and Volquez, the Reds rotation has thus far been a half run below league average. It's the pen that has been an advantage for their staff through the first month. Overall they are still in the bottom half of the NL (rank 10th).

In '07 they were ranked 15th by staff ERA.


'07 NL ave ERA:
starter: 4.64
pen: 4.08

'07 Reds ERA:
starter: 4.86
pen: 5.13

So the reality is that the Reds rotation is actually performing worse against the league this season compared to how it was relative the league in 2007. It's the performance of the Reds pen that has made the difference through the first month of their '08 season.

JoJo how can you be so reactionary ? If the Red's at any time this season run off a 15-5 stretch they can probably walk away with this division. What drives me crazy is the 40 games or less into season freak out posters who define what the season will be.:thumbdown

jojo
05-04-2008, 07:22 AM
JoJo how can you be so reactionary ?

I'm not sure where you're coming from..... The post you're quoting is simply summarizing the performance of the Reds staff versus the league by using ERA (ya, ERA of all things). It's not predicting the future but rather trying to understand the reason for 12-19 since there is discussion in this thread about offense versus defense etc. I understand that you're venting and you took the very first chance that seemed available...but in this instance, there is a confusing disconnect.


If the Red's at any time this season run off a 15-5 stretch they can probably walk away with this division.

I think it's probably going to take 90 wins to top the central this season. The Reds will need a couple of 15-5 runs and they'll have to stop going 12-19 in between them....


What drives me crazy is the 40 games or less into season freak out posters who define what the season will be.:thumbdown

Once again, as pet peeves go, that's probably as good as the next one. It just doesn't fit the post you quoted in particular or my stance on the Reds '08 season in general.

Basically going in I thought the Reds were 9 games worse than the Cubs talent-wise so everything had to go right for Cincy to win the division. Just 31 games in, the Reds find themselves 6.5 games behind the Cubs. Basically they've dug themselves a pretty deep hole to open the season making it much less likely they'll be playing meaningful baseball in September.

That's not a pejorative stance. It's simply an assessment of their chances to make the playoffs going forward that doesn't even discount the possibility that they still could.

reds44
05-05-2008, 08:38 PM
Cueto hit a wall in the 5th today.

5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Falls City Beer
05-05-2008, 08:42 PM
Cueto hit a wall in the 5th today.

5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

I definitely hope that's it for him. He was gassed.

Let him go out without feeling like crap. Meanwhile the Reds offense is giving Dempster 6-7 pitch innings. I hate the game of every single hitter in this lineup not named Dunn or Encarnacion.

Dusty's second glaring mistake since the start of the season--he's leaving him in.

Tony Cloninger
05-05-2008, 08:51 PM
His pitch to Dance Fever on 2-2....if he get's that over he is out of the inning.

It was a nice curveball but outside....after that everything is up.

Remember.....no Reds pitcher has gone longer than 6 innings for the last 5 games...bullpen is overworked.

reds44
05-05-2008, 08:54 PM
That was a really bad idea by Dusty, but he got away with it.

6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
QS

Bullpen is going to have to make 5 stand up for him to get a W because the offense is done for this evening.

Topcat
05-05-2008, 08:57 PM
Johnny Looked reasonably decent in his bounce back game honestly. Lets hope the pen finishes this one up.

Superdude
05-05-2008, 08:57 PM
Questionable call leaving Cueto in. He looked to be just about done after 5 and had thrown close to 100. 108 pitches isn't too terrible though I guess.

Tony Cloninger
05-05-2008, 09:02 PM
I guess people have my posts on ignore..:).....the SP has not gone more than 6 innings in the last 5 games......This is commonly known as the Narron Conundrum.....how long do you stretch out a starter when he can barely give you 5 innings to begin with.

108 is fine.....for 1 start. Hopefully he only has to throw no more than 95 next time.

RedlegJake
05-05-2008, 11:51 PM
108 pitches isn't unreasonable. He'd throw that many in the minors, although that would be the limit. I was impressed that he seemed to bounce back from his shellacking with a solid performance. He didn't come apart when he went back out for the 6th either. I think it was important for him to get that 6th inning after the 5th.

Matt700wlw
05-06-2008, 02:11 PM
good to see Cueto looked better, and Volquez has been, well, Volquez.

Sounds like Cueto's issues are more mechanical than anything else, which means mentally, he's fine up here, which is the biggest thing you worry about in young players. He's got the stuff and the confidence in his stuff to get guys out at the Major League level.

He doesn't have to be in AAA to fix the mechanics.

Cooper
05-06-2008, 02:40 PM
I get the sense that Dusty doesn't really manage the pitchers...things just happen to them. He doesn't seem to have a feel for who is going good and who is struggling. His goal ought to be to get to that bullpen without the game getting away. The BP is something a good manager can work with (though i'd rather have 2 young guys in there over Fogg/Mercker).

There's enough there in the BP to get it done -manage the game backwards helps. You start from the ninth and fill in the blanks with an idea of who can do what (also, a good manager knows who canmatch up with their best hitter). Golfers play backwards all the time--it gives the mind a different perception of how far one has to go to get something done. I get the feeling Dusty always looks at the game from the same perspective-the game happens to him -he doesn't really manage it.

Okay -who will be the first idiot to show some batter standing backwards? We all know it's coming and we can all begin to "LMAO" and post funny little smiley things....let's go ahead and get that over with.

fearofpopvol1
05-06-2008, 06:54 PM
The kid is still striking out more hitters than he is giving up hits/walks. 3 runs over 6 innings is good by me. Hopefully Cueto continues to improve.

Matt700wlw
05-07-2008, 12:30 AM
Updating Hamilton:

Another home run tonight (a 3 run shot, with 2 outs in the 3rd inning)...#7.

He's now batting .301, with 7 HRs, 36 RBIs, and an OPS of .900



We know what Volquez is doing.





Both the Rangers and the Reds are in last place in their divisions.

edabbs44
05-07-2008, 08:13 AM
Updating Hamilton:

Another home run tonight (a 3 run shot, with 2 outs in the 3rd inning)...#7.

He's now batting .301, with 7 HRs, 36 RBIs, and an OPS of .900



We know what Volquez is doing.





Both the Rangers and the Reds are in last place in their divisions.

I'm pulling for Hamilton but I was happy when the trade was made and I am still happy now.

Matt700wlw
05-07-2008, 01:57 PM
It's just ironic how such a good trade, which it has been, hasn't made either club ultimately better...

Of course, there's plenty of other reasons why on both sides. The Rangers have no pitching (so they get rid of pitching), and the Reds offense stinks, even though on paper, it really shouldn't...Hamilton or no Hamilton.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2008, 02:31 PM
For the record, the Cubs are bringing along 22 year old starting prospect Sean Gallagher through bullpen exposure.

The_jbh
05-07-2008, 02:51 PM
I am a little nervous Vol continues to pitch today... looks to finish the 7th with around 120 pitches... I mean i love shutout as much as the rest but we are up 9-0... throw mercker or Fogg out there for the final 3...

kaldaniels
05-07-2008, 02:53 PM
Harang-Volquez-Cueto (in whatever order you want)

Not this year...but hopefully by the end of next season this will be the most ideal/best playoff rotation in the bigs.

Always Red
05-07-2008, 02:55 PM
I am a little nervous Vol continues to pitch today... looks to finish the 7th with around 120 pitches... I mean i love shutout as much as the rest but we are up 9-0... throw mercker or Fogg out there for the final 3...

Very bad idea by Dusty to run him out there for the 7th. Now he's got two guys on base, and pitching under stress with over 115 thrown already is a recipe for disaster.

Even Fogg can hold a 9 run lead...

BuckeyeRedleg
05-07-2008, 02:56 PM
Volquez now leads the majors in K's (52) and is 2nd in ERA (1.06), behind Cliff Lee (0.96).

Aside from the walks (24 in 42.1 IP), he's been flawless through 7 starts.

I would hope Dusty takes him out after 118 pitches, but you never know.

Aronchis
05-07-2008, 02:58 PM
I wasn't impressed with Cueto's game against the Cubs. The Chicago guys missed alot of chances and didn't play the best series they are capable of. While Volquez has given up to many base runners at times, his pure stuff is the tops(and Dusty starts turning the screws!!) and limits runs.

I think it is pretty evident Johnny isn't a mid-90's thrower. His value then declines.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2008, 02:58 PM
Volquez now leads the majors in K's (52) and is 2nd in ERA (1.06), behind Cliff Lee (0.96).

Aside from the walks (24 in 42.1 IP), he's been flawless through 7 starts.

Right now Volquez is demonstrating the difference between an ace (himself) and a good number 2 pitcher (Harang).

kaldaniels
05-07-2008, 03:00 PM
Right now Volquez is demonstrating the difference between an ace (himself) and a good number 2 pitcher (Harang).

The debates about this #1 or #2 or ace vs whatever can go round and round it's all subjective and there is no set definition. However if you are putting Harang as a #2 realize he is an excellent #2. Good is an understatement.

RedEye
05-07-2008, 03:01 PM
I think it is pretty evident Johnny isn't a mid-90's thrower. His value then declines.

In the game I saw, he was painting the corners at 95...

I think he is a mid-90's pitcher. The variable seems to be where he can put those pitches. When he's over the plate, they tee off. When he's not, he's unhittable.

Aronchis
05-07-2008, 03:04 PM
In the game I saw, he was painting the corners at 95...

I think he is a mid-90's pitcher. The variable seems to be where he can put those pitches. When he's over the plate, they tee off. When he's not, he's unhittable.

He is a low 90's pitcher that can get it up into the mid-90's as he has been through his career. He might paint the corner with a 95mph fastball, but the comfort level for him is lower. He paid for overthrowing those early starts with a absolute turd against the Cards.

Nothing wrong with that, but we must put a little reality in place because his physical upside is limited.

fearofpopvol1
05-07-2008, 03:07 PM
Volquez just look disgusting today. I realize Soriano wasn't in the lineup, but that's a pretty damn good Cubs lineup and he made those hitters look silly. Volquez has an interesting approach. He does walk a lot of batters, but he also doesn't give in either. I think he will get in trouble from time to time with this approach, especially with teams that have patient hitters, but I think the Zambrano comparison is probably a good one. He'll walk a lot of batters, but he'll also K a lot of batters to and for the most part, be stingy on the mound.

I have a feeling with Cliff Lee facing the Yanks tonight that Volquez made end up leading the majors in ERA.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2008, 03:09 PM
Volquez just look disgusting today. I realize Soriano wasn't in the lineup, but that's a pretty damn good Cubs lineup and he made those hitters look silly. Volquez has an interesting approach. He does walk a lot of batters, but he also doesn't give in either. I think he will get in trouble from time to time with this approach, especially with teams that have patient hitters, but I think the Zambrano comparison is probably a good one. He'll walk a lot of batters, but he'll also K a lot of batters to and for the most part, be stingy on the mound.

I have a feeling with Cliff Lee facing the Yanks tonight that Volquez made end up leading the majors in ERA.

I think Volquez is the only Reds' pitcher to have ever retired Ramirez via strikeout.

(I'm only partly kidding).

Caveat Emperor
05-07-2008, 03:19 PM
For the record, the Cubs are bringing along 22 year old starting prospect Sean Gallagher through bullpen exposure.

Easy to burn cheap, pre-arb years with limited bullpen innings when budget isn't a concern.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2008, 03:21 PM
Easy to burn cheap, pre-arb years with limited bullpen innings when budget isn't a concern.

If that's what's keeping the Reds from doing the right thing by Cueto, then heaven help them.

Caveat Emperor
05-07-2008, 03:25 PM
If that's what's keeping the Reds from doing the right thing by Cueto, then heaven help them.

When you come right down to it, what's the team's #1 priority: doing right by them as a team or doing right by the player?

Falls City Beer
05-07-2008, 03:26 PM
When you come right down to it, what's the team's #1 priority: doing right by them as a team or doing right by the player?

You can do both; they're not mutually exclusive. If you don't the second, though, you'll never ever have the first.

Chip R
05-07-2008, 03:42 PM
I think Volquez is the only Reds' pitcher to have ever retired Ramirez via strikeout.

(I'm only partly kidding).


I'd actually believe that.

Anyone think that Mad Dog's got a chance of doing a little pitching on July 15?

oregonred
05-07-2008, 04:12 PM
Right now Volquez is demonstrating the difference between an ace (himself) and a good number 2 pitcher (Harang).

Sure beats the days of Jimmy Haynes and Joey Hamilton as the #1/#2... Of course, Harang's stats are #1 material over the last few seasons (top 10 in NL in K/9, DIPS ERA, Ks in 2007), but Volquez is putting up ridiculous numbers...

How sick has Volquez been? (per ESPN blurb)

Volquez's hot start

Edinson Volquez has been dominant in seven starts this season. The 24-year-old has not allowed more than one earned run in any start and also leads the NL with a 1.06 ERA.
Most consecutive starts with less than one earned run to start a season Pitcher, starts Year Team
Mike Norris, 8 1980 Oakland
Edinson Volquez, 7 2008 Cincinnati
Bob Knepper, 7 1988 Houston
Fernando Valenzuela, 7 1981 L.A. Dodgers
Spud Chandler, 7 1946 N.Y. Yankees

fearofpopvol1
05-11-2008, 02:54 PM
After watching Cueto pitch today, he should go back to AAA and fine tune. I really thought he was ready, but not after today. The problem is, the Reds are already short on arms, so it would mean Fogg getting put back in the rotation, Belisle pitching and/or giving Lehr/Shearn a chance to start or maybe rushing Bailey again. None of those scenarios are great.

He just does not pitch well out of the stretch at all. Up until the 4th or 5th inning, he wasn't even checking any runners and he was consistently hurrying and trying to pitch as quickly as possible. He also gets noticably bothered when things aren't going his way.

Now, it's not completely his fault he gave up 6 runs. That botched play by Griffey cost at least 1, maybe 2 runs. He didn't have his best stuff today, but he still looked awful.

Matt700wlw
05-11-2008, 02:55 PM
If it's mechanical, it should be fixable up here.

If it is mechanical, and not fixable up here, then it's time to evaluate the coaches working with him. Maybe Soto and Pole are giving him a mixed bag...which probably isn't good, either.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 02:56 PM
After watching Cueto pitch today, he should go back to AAA and fine tune. I really thought he was ready, but not after today. The problem is, the Reds are already short on arms, so it would mean Fogg getting put back in the rotation, Belisle pitching and/or giving Lehr/Shearn a chance to start or maybe rushing Bailey again. None of those scenarios are great.

He just does not pitch well out of the stretch at all. Up until the 4th or 5th inning, he wasn't even checking any runners and he was consistently hurrying and trying to pitch as quickly as possible. He also gets noticably bothered when things aren't going his way.

Now, it's not completely his fault he gave up 6 runs. That botched play by Griffey cost at least 1, maybe 2 runs. He didn't have his best stuff today, but he still looked awful.

22 is just too young, particularly with as few innings as he had in the upper minors. I'm sure he'll be a bulldog at 24, but he's got some filling in to do and learning different approaches to game situations. He's very unpolished.

kbrake
05-11-2008, 02:57 PM
With just an average RF we are not even having this discussion. Are there things Cueto could learn? Absolutely. Why not let him do it at this level, its not like he is the one thing holding this team back from making a playoff run.

Matt700wlw
05-11-2008, 02:58 PM
He can go back to AAA and learn how to get more minor league hitters out that he already knows how to do.

Sounds like plan.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 02:59 PM
With just an average RF we are not even having this discussion. Are there things Cueto could learn? Absolutely. Why not let him do it at this level, its not like he is the one thing holding this team back from making a playoff run.

Because pitchers don't learn anything from being demoralized.

Especially 22 year olds who don't speak the language.

reds44
05-11-2008, 03:00 PM
I don't really see the benefits of sending Cueto to AAA.

The one thing Cueto needs to do better is damage control. When he's on, he's as good as anybody, but he doesn't respond well when thing go bad.

There aren't any better options than him at this point.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 03:02 PM
I don't really see the benefits of sending Cueto to AAA.

The one thing Cueto needs to do better is damage control. When he's on, he's as good as anybody, but he doesn't respond well when thing go bad.

There aren't any better options than him at this point.

Send him to the pen; let him get some high-leverage Ks to boost his confidence (and keep his pitch counts low).

fearofpopvol1
05-11-2008, 03:04 PM
I disagree. I think sending him to AAA may be a good thing. It'll help him get his confidence back and help him refine his pitches in a less important and less hostile environment. He has not looked good for a while now. His start against the Cubs was not stellar. He got pretty lucky. It's an important time for Cueto because he's still developing and the right decisions need to be made about his development. Making the wrong ones could be damning for his entire career, which would be a tragedy considering the natural "stuff" that he has. He's ace potential, he's just not there.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 03:06 PM
I disagree. I think sending him to AAA may be a good thing. It'll help him get his confidence back and help him refine his pitches in a less important and less hostile environment. He has not looked good for a while now. His start against the Cubs was not stellar. He got pretty lucky. It's an important time for Cueto because he's still developing and the right decisions need to be made about his development. Making the wrong ones could be damning for his entire career, which would be a tragedy considering the natural "stuff" that he has. He's ace potential, he's just not there.

A man who follows reason. I still see no danger in letting him have 4 months in the pen; then letting him have some meaningless starts in Sept.

mth123
05-11-2008, 03:06 PM
With just an average RF we are not even having this discussion. Are there things Cueto could learn? Absolutely. Why not let him do it at this level, its not like he is the one thing holding this team back from making a playoff run.

Really this team is a lot closer than people think. Sub Bruce for Griffey and the defense and pitching are both vastly improved. In addition to botched plays like the one today, the parade of routine fly singles to RF is showing up in the stats and the high pitch counts of the pitching staff.

An .850 or so OPS in place of Griffey's .700ish in the 3 hole and the offense would look a lot better as well.

In 2009, one move will improve the team in all areas and save a ton of money to boot. Not sure if Griffey is at the end or not, but he's clearly a weak link this season and belongs on a team where he adds LH pop in the 6 hole or so as a DH. Its time.