Is Arroyo tradeable?

[corkedbat]

He's scared me since last year and that's one conract I don't see BCast eating. If he can string a few decent starts between now and the deadline and anyone offers anything, I think they'd be wise to take it. It doesn't even have to be pitching, I'd deal him for a serviceable catcher if we could find a willing partner.

Don't see it happening, but with the scarcity of pitching, never say never.

[reds44]

Arroyo isn't going anywhere but the DL. He throws a ton of breaking balls, and 450+ innings the last two years. Jerry Narron claims his 2nd victim.

[corkedbat]

Arroyo isn't going anywhere but the DL.

Is his arm bothering him or just a tell-tale drop in velocity?

[reds44]

Is his arm bothering him or just a tell-tale drop in velocity?
His breaking ball has zero bite on it as well. It's just floating up there. That sharp slider we're used to seeing from his just is not there right now.

[Aronchis]

Arroyo needs a MRI and Catscan.

[CTA513]

You probably won't get much unless your just looking to dump his salary.

[edabbs44]

You probably won't get much unless your just looking to dump his salary.

At this point it wouldn't be a bad maneuver.

[OnBaseMachine]

You probably won't get much unless your just looking to dump his salary.

Fine with me.

[reds44]

Nobody is taking that salary right now. No way.

[flyer85]

not at the moment ... good example of what can happen when you give an extension when you don't have to.

[*BaseClogger*]

not at the moment ... good example of what can happen when you give an extension when you don't have to.

*Brandon Phillips*

[flyer85]

*Brandon Phillips*I was thinking more in terms of pitchers ... Jocketty did the same thing last year with Carpenter(one of his big mis-steps in the last few years).

[TRF]

I wish Krivsky had dealt with Arroyo the same way he did Hamilton. Should have been dealt right after 2006. Didn't like the trade then, still don't care for it too much. Yes... I still have a man crush on WMP.

[KronoRed]

He's gonna need to put together some wins first.

[kheidg-]

I think Arroyo will come around eventually... it's only been a few starts. Regardless, the time to trade him may have been when Atlanta was calling late last season.

[Reds Fanatic]

Arroyo had that game last year where he threw a ridiculous amount of pitches. I think it was around 129. Since that game he really has never been right. I think his arm is shot.

[Falls City Beer]

It's going to follow this storyline, like it always does: Arroyo will deny anything's wrong--he feels fine, etc. Gets clobbered his next start; the next day: "My arm's been feeling kind of rough lately, don't know when I started feeling it."

[redsfan30]

I wish Krivsky had dealt with Arroyo the same way he did Hamilton. Should have been dealt right after 2006. Didn't like the trade then, still don't care for it too much. Yes... I still have a man crush on WMP.

I've beat this drum since the day after the 2006 season. That year just screamed career year and he was signed to a very cheap, multi-year deal at that point. Coming off the season he had and as hungry for pitching that teams are, this team could have gotten a king's ransom in return had they dealt him.

[reds44]

I've beat this drum since the day after the 2006 season. That year just screamed career year and he was signed to a very cheap, multi-year deal at that point. Coming off the season he had and as hungry for pitching that teams are, this team could have gotten a king's ransom in return had they dealt him.
I forget the exact deal, but right around the deadline last year there was a rumor of Atlanta offering up Escobar, a pitcher (Jojo Reyes I want to say), and maybe a third player. Somebody will have the exact offer, but I said at the time I would have jumped all over last year.

It seems pretty obvious that his arm is shot. He was never this bad in Boston.

[redsrule2500]

I think a lot of you are jumping the Arroyo ship a little early.

[Falls City Beer]

I think a lot of you are jumping the Arroyo ship a little early.

The only way this is true is if he's injured. If he's not injured, then he's just bad.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think he's injurred.

[edabbs44]

The only way this is true is if he's injured. If he's not injured, then he's just bad.

He has to be injured. He'll be on the DL by the end of the week.

[RedEye]

He has to be injured. He'll be on the DL by the end of the week.

And then... Homer Bailey? ;)

[OnBaseMachine]

And then... Homer Bailey? ;)

I can't wait to see the reaction of the board if Jocketty calls up Homer. I'm sure he'll be praised, or at least won't take as much heat as Krivsky would if he were still here and called him up.

[BCubb2003]

I wish Krivsky had dealt with Arroyo the same way he did Hamilton. Should have been dealt right after 2006. Didn't like the trade then, still don't care for it too much. Yes... I still have a man crush on WMP.

I don't think I could take two more years of trying to rewrite Wily Mo's contract.

[harangatang]

And then... Homer Bailey? ;)Daryl Thompson?

[Spring~Fields]

Arroyo needs a MRI and Catscan.

That's right. I am waiting to see if Jockerty is going to be more proactive and on top of things than the others. Jockerty needs to be procactive on the Arroyo issue, to find out for sure if there is something wrong with him or not, and take the corrective steps if there is. Not wait until 2-3 more poor starts and uh um, gee something is not right about him. Send him tommorrow for tests don't wait.

[Topcat]

not at the moment ... good example of what can happen when you give an extension when you don't have to.


And you voiced that opinion when he signed it correct ? Ah yeah thats correct, you didn't. Nice job of couch gm'ing ya got goin there .:thumbup:

[Ltlabner]

Funny how folks banged on Arroyo for not embracing Cincy right out of the gate, but when he hits a rough patch he's dumped overboard in a heartbeat.

He's lost veliocity and his pitches have no movement. Let's spend the couple thousand bucks for an MRI, catscan and exam before we trade him for a bucket of balls. If it's an injury that can be treated we'll end up with average-slightly above average innings eater. Kind of a nice thing to package with Harrang, Cueto and Volquez (assuming the latter two reamain successfull).

Frankly I think this is the ghost of Narron coming back to haunt. High pitch counts will haunt. (so will walks, for that matter).

[WrongVerb]

I can't wait to see the reaction of the board if Jocketty calls up Homer. I'm sure he'll be praised, or at least won't take as much heat as Krivsky would if he were still here and called him up.

That's because Homer might actually be ready to arrive. He's got some sick numbers in AAA this year.

[RedlegJake]

I'm with those who want to see an MRI and exam. Something is wrong with Arroyo, yeaterday he was definitely off and not just missing spots. ( And yes I am the one who posted a thread claiming that was his problem - but he looked physically bad last night, no velocity, no snap to his curves). If he gets a clean bill of health then DL him for a tired arm or put him in the bullpen for a spell. Put Bailey in his place and live with Belisle for awhile. Bronson has a big contract and the Reds really need to figure out what's wrong here.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

And you voiced that opinion when he signed it correct ? Ah yeah thats correct, you didn't. Nice job of couch gm'ing ya got goin there .:thumbup:

I don't know about Flyer, but I had my concerns with the extension.


My worthless opinion on the Arroyo signing....

I like the Harang deal a lot, but I'm not buying into the hype of the Arroyo deal. On one side, it shows that the team is committed to some form of stability, which I dig, but on the other, it's quite a bit of money for a guy that may have peaked in 2006.

If I have the numbers right, Bronson was due to make 8 million over the next two years and then enter his first year of free agency in 2009. 4M per year is very inexpensive for a quality pitcher like Arroyo. Now with this deal, we have extended him two years, essentially buying his first two years of free agency for 25M.

Let's say he doesn't get hurt and he equals his career year of 2006 for the next two years. Two years where we were paying him roughly 8M (4M per). Now, let's say we didn't re-sign him yesterday. So now 2009 comes along and he's a Free Agent. Wouldn't you think 2 years at 25M would be pretty steep? And that's after you get to watch him for two more years to judge whether he's worthy. Yesterday's deal is a huge gamble. Not only is it a ton of money. It's a ton of money for a guy who could have peaked in 2006 and has been overworked. 25M would also make it hard to deal him. We may have to eat some dough, if necessary, just to unload him.

I'll be happy to be wrong with my concerns if he can match 2006 for the next 4+ years. I just don't think an organization that already screwed itself with the Milton deal, two years ago, can afford this high of a gamble again, with such a limited payroll.

Arroyo went from being a great value (4M per) which a cost-conscience organizaion such as the Reds desperately needs, to being just another one of those expensive question marks (see: Gil Meche) that potentially could evolve into an expensive mistake (see: Eric Milton).

As for Harang, it was a no-brainer. He is a horse and a great foundation to build the staff around. And we got him cheap. A+ for signing him longterm at such a great value. C- for the Arroyo deal. It wasn't necessary, but I understand it might have bought some goodwill with the Reds faithful However, the Milton deal was made for that exact purpose as well.

link to thread
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54471&highlight=arroyo+contract

[Team Clark]

Arroyo is not hurt. He continues to lack the want or ability to make any adjustments. Period. When you do not have stellar stuff like Arroyo you are going to get hammered when the other team knows practically pitch by pitch what you are going to throw.

Any team that pays for inside edge or has a good enough advance scout has him figured out.

Granted his pitches are a little flat. I saw 3 changeups down the middle and a curve ball come in around the letters that were all hit hard. Ripped would be the word I am looking for here. Thing is, when you are SITTING on those pitches you can really hammer them. The only Houston hitters that looked fooled during any at bat were the newbies.

[REDREAD]

I can't wait to see the reaction of the board if Jocketty calls up Homer. I'm sure he'll be praised, or at least won't take as much heat as Krivsky would if he were still here and called him up.

Not from me. They need to wait until Homer has completed his development plan, even if that means the club is forced to put both Belisle and Fogg in the rotation.

I'm glad to have Jocketty in charge, but I'm not going to blindly praise everything he does. I started off liking Wayne, and I didn't praise everything he did :)

[RedlegJake]

Arroyo is not hurt. He continues to lack the want or ability to make any adjustments. Period. When you do not have stellar stuff like Arroyo you are going to get hammered when the other team knows practically pitch by pitch what you are going to throw.

Any team that pays for inside edge or has a good enough advance scout has him figured out.

Granted his pitches are a little flat. I saw 3 changeups down the middle and a curve ball come in around the letters that were all hit hard. Ripped would be the word I am looking for here. Thing is, when you are SITTING on those pitches you can really hammer them. The only Houston hitters that looked fooled during any at bat were the newbies.

TC, if you're right then the Reds have a new Eric Milton hung around their necks.

[oneupper]

TC, if you're right then the Reds have a new Eric Milton hung around their necks.

Every team has a Milton or two on the books. Some can afford it better than others.

The worst thing about the Arroyo extension was the timing of it. Arroyo was signed through 2008 at a very reasonable price by the Bosox. There was no reason to not wait AT LEAST until the beginning of 2008 to talk. At that point, his value could have been assessed better and if it was obvious he wasn't staying, he could have been a valuable commodity at the trading deadline (this year).

Even with his performance THIS year, if he were at his original 2008 salary (about $4 mmm IIRC)...you'd get some takers.

[Sea Ray]

Nobody is taking that salary right now. No way.

You got that right. Thanks WK.

We'll likely realize WK's worst move as GM long after he's gone. Two years from now this deal will make us all forget OB's Eric Milton contract...

[Sea Ray]

I take him at his word that he's not hurting but he needs to regain his velocity. His fastball needs to get back to 91 MPH. The added arm strength will also help the movement on his other pitches.

Opposing hitters looked awfully excited to swing the bat vs Arroyo and Belisle. We can't have that. It was like they were disappointed when they fouled a ball off.

[Ltlabner]

I take him at his word that he's not hurting...

That's the last thing you want to do. Trust a multi-million dollar meatball jock to tell you he is hurting? That didn't even work with Eric Milton.

I'm told everytime I post along these lines that it's part of the jock culture, it's competitiveness, the eye of the tiger, blah blah. If a pitcher is hurting but doesn't fess up about it he's one thing, and one thing only: STUPID.

He thinks he's being all macho, but what he's really doing is costing himself millions in money he could have earned down the road if this untreated injury cuts his carear short. How freaking smart is that? Oh yea, it screws his team over in the process.

Sorry for the rant. I just have no paitience for idiots who would rather pretend to be the tough guy than be an adult and say, "you know coach, my arm does feal a little funny....".

Not saying this is what Arroyo is doing, but he is the Reds' asset. They would be wise to protect their asset and force an exam than rely on him to fess up about being hurt. That makes as much sense as having a CNC milling machine that is acting funny and instead of having the tech give it a once over, you sit back and wait for things to work themselves out.

[membengal]

The drop-off in velocity is a red flag to me.

[Az Red]

tired arm

That dreaded disease!

[KronoRed]

The drop-off in velocity is a red flag to me.

As I recall he had that last year as well, it came around though.

[Team Clark]

As I recall he had that last year as well, it came around though.

He dropped velocity not because fo injury but for lack of throwing the fastball. Seriously. When you fall in love with off speed it's hard to do an about face and start spotting a good fastball especially when you do not have dominant stuff. Arroyo has a lot of work to do. A lot.

[OnBaseMachine]

Nowhere do I see a swimming pool. Not one. Bronson Arroyo finds them, though, and uses them to his advantage. He may look like Ichabod Crane, but he is doing his best to be another Johnny Weissmuller (for the old folks) or Mark Spitz (for the younger set).

Those are swimmers, folks.

And that’s what Arroyo credits with the velocity he found Monday on his fastball that helped him record his first victory this year, 4-3, over the St. Louis Cardinals.

With his velocity drooping at 88 the last two starts, Arroyo decided to try something different in his training routine. Swimming. Find a Y. Find a Boys Club. Even a Girls Club. So he and strength/conditioning coach Matt Krause went swimming four straight days to strengthen Arroyo’s shoulders.

Suddenly his fastball was back to 90 and 91 and for the first time this season he finished six innings, giving up three runs and six hits.

Afterward, he felt like shouting, “Here’s a news flash! Cannonball,” then jumping butt first into the nearest bank fountain.

“I finally had some zip on the ball, much stronger than any other start,” he said. “It’s great when you feel you can beat guys by throwing a fastball by them, especially when you get behind in the count.

“I felt like my stuff was there, other than the lack of a fastball,” he said. “You look at guys like Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, guys I played with in the past, and the times they were down three or four miles an hour on their fastball, even they had trouble getting guys out. You give guys a lot more time to react when you are throwing 84, 85, 86 miles an hour than if you get it up there 90 and 91.”

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

[WVRedsFan]

not at the moment ... good example of what can happen when you give an extension when you don't have to.

Hmmm.

Counting them up, you get Freel, Castro (though i'm not sure it was an extention), Hatteberg, Narron, Harang, Arroyo, Phillips and others. It now seems that those that aren't playing much (Freel and Hatteberg) and those that get benched from time to time (Phillips) aren't taking to the change in leadership. Those that are doing well aren't saying anything. Hmmm. Our boy Bronson is just trying to do well without complaints.

Yep, Bronson was cheap for awhile. There should have been a longer observation period. You can say the same for Narron. But, that's water over the bridge.

[membengal]

Uh, yeah. The extra velocity was nice to see. Hope it is not a one-game abberation. With Arroyo, the off-speed stuff that can be so deadly instead become fluffy batting practice if they don't have to respect his fastball even a little.

Let's hope it stays around 90-91 when he needs it to. He is effective when it is.

[NJReds]

The Yankees would take Arroyo, and probably one of our catchers if Posada is out for a long stretch.

[Team Clark]

“I felt like my stuff was there, other than the lack of a fastball,” he said. “You look at guys like Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, guys I played with in the past, and the times they were down three or four miles an hour on their fastball, even they had trouble getting guys out. You give guys a lot more time to react when you are throwing 84, 85, 86 miles an hour than if you get it up there 90 and 91.”http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

True Bronson, but I am curious as to why you kept going back to a not so sharp breaking ball to weaker hitters with runners on base? It cost you twice that I saw. Someone please sit Arroyo down and explain "mixing it up"...

[Spring~Fields]

As I recall he had that last year as well, it came around though.

Yes, similar to last year, now he is crediting swimming with strengthening or increasing stamina. I am kind of surprised that he wasn't already on some type of program to address his issues last year carrying forward to now with the Reds need for pitching being what it was and is.

[Sea Ray]

Suddenly his fastball was back to 90 and 91 and for the first time this season he finished six innings, giving up three runs and six hits

I didn't see anything clocked at 90 or 91 on FSN. Did any of you?

[Spitball]

Someone please sit Arroyo down and explain "mixing it up"...

I think Arroyo understands the "mixing it up" part. When he has his good fastball, he pitches backward as well as anyone.

[Falls City Beer]

I didn't see anything clocked at 90 or 91 on FSN. Did any of you?

Yes. I heard from reports from the park (friends attended the game), and mlb.com had the same figures.

[SMcGavin]

I didn't see anything clocked at 90 or 91 on FSN. Did any of you?

Yeah I saw 91 on FSN.

[RedsManRick]

From BP today:



4. Bronson Arroyo. This looked more insightful 24 hours ago, before Arroyo threw a quality start against the Cardinals Monday night in a 4-3 win. With that game in hand, you’re looking at a pitcher with a 29/12 K/BB in 31 innings, excellent numbers. Once again, Arroyo is struggling with the long ball, allowing seven so far in his six starts (one last night). Even that is largely the result of one terrible day against the Phillies back on April 7, with four homers allowed to the 27 batters he faced.

Arroyo’s real problem has been that old bugaboo, BABIP. The Reds aren’t a good defensive team by any stretch—16th in Defensive Efficiency at .706—but when Arroyo has been on the mound, balls have found more holes than usual. Arroyo has allowed 43 hits despite striking out nearly a man an inning, largely thanks to a BABIP of .375. Even if that reverts to his career high of .313, set last year, it will bring his ERA down, and the rest of his numbers make him a good mid-rotation starter, an asset for a Reds team that can be a factor in the wild-card chase.

[Screwball]

Arroyo has allowed 43 hits despite striking out nearly a man an inning, largely thanks to a BABIP of .375


They must not have checked his LD rates. It's at 24.3%, meaning a BABIP of .375 isn't out of whack from an expected .363 BABIP. I think that Arroyo will right the ship not because of better luck, but because he's throwing the ball better (i.e., with more velocity and better location).

[RedsManRick]

They must not have checked his LD rates. It's at 24.3%, meaning a BABIP of .375 isn't out of whack from an expected .363 BABIP. I think that Arroyo will right the ship not because of better luck, but because he's throwing the ball better (i.e., with more velocity and better location).

If you want to substitute LD for BABIP, you should do it in both places. Despite the Todd Coffey case, generally speaking, guys who strike out players at a decent clip shouldn't be allowing that many LD.

Yes, his BABIP is consistent with his LD%, but his LD% is high and should regress over the course of the season, bringing his BABIP with it.

I think we (BP authors included) often substitute luck for variance. They don't mean that those players were lucky to hit those line drives or runs. Arroyo legitimately has allowed line drives and HR at an increased rate so far this year. What is meant is that Arroyo is unlucky to have this current small sample of events be so unrepresentative of his actual skill. The supposition is that the higher rates are not due to a loss of skill, but merely the same skill as past years distributed over a small sample. As he accrues more starts, the impact of the Philadelphia start, for example, will lessen.

[Screwball]

If you want to substitute LD for BABIP, you should do it in both places. Despite the Todd Coffey case, generally speaking, guys who strike out players at a decent clip shouldn't be allowing that many LD.

Yes, his BABIP is consistent with his LD%, but his LD% is high and should regress over the course of the season, bringing his BABIP with it.

I think we (BP authors included) often substitute luck for variance. They don't mean that those players were lucky to hit those line drives or runs. Arroyo legitimately has allowed line drives and HR at an increased rate so far this year. What is meant is that Arroyo is unlucky to have this current small sample of events be so unrepresentative of his actual skill. The supposition is that the higher rates are not due to a loss of skill, but merely the same skill as past years distributed over a small sample. As he accrues more starts, the impact of the Philadelphia start, for example, will lessen.

I'm not sure if we're in disagreement or not. Arroyo's ERA isn't indicative of his true skill. However, despite his high PEACE totals, he's been far too inconsistent with his location thus far, as his relatively high LD rates attest to. I believe he'll build on yesterday's start, and pitch more like the Bronson we've come to know over the last couple of years.

I suppose the mention of BABIP just threw me off as to trying to simply say he was unlucky, which I (and you too, if I understand your position correctly) don't think is true.

[RedsManRick]

I'm not sure if we're in disagreement or not. Arroyo's ERA isn't indicative of his true skill. However, despite his high PEACE totals, he's been far too inconsistent with his location thus far, as his relatively high LD rates attest to. I believe he'll build on yesterday's start, and pitch more like the Bronson we've come to know over the last couple of years.

I suppose the mention of BABIP just threw me off as to trying to simply say he was unlucky, which I (and you too, if I understand your position correctly) don't think is true.

I think we agree. It's not that he hasn't pitched poorly so far, he has. He's had spotty command which has led to him being over the plate more often, leading to more line drives and home runs, in addition to the walks. That's real and not due to a poor defense behind him. His 5.62 FIP reflects that.

Lucky means a few things. While he has pitched poorly, his ERA is higher than it should be, even given how he's pitched. So that's part of it. That's typically what is meant by "unlucky".

But "unlucky" also refers to the fact that his poor stretch of pitching has come at the beginning of the season. If this stretch came in July, as it did in 2006, or in May or August, as it did in 2007, it wouldn't be nearly the issue it is now. Pitchers go through rough patches which they pitch poorly. But when they happen in April, people tend to project it out for the rest of the season instead of seeing it as merely a rough "patch".

As the season progresses, I think he'll return to the same average level of performance, more or less, as we've seen the past few years. He'll be a solid mid-rotation starter with a FIP in the 4.40 range over 200 IP.