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View Full Version : What will Jocketty do with Adam Dunn?



RFS62
04-24-2008, 02:37 PM
What will Jocketty do with Adam Dunn?

OnBaseMachine
04-24-2008, 02:40 PM
I voted sign him to a LTC.

Benihana
04-24-2008, 02:41 PM
I think he signs him, mainly because Castellini wants him here. Plus, when has Jocketty not signed (and traded) one of his marquee players? (Edmonds, Pujols, McGwire, et al)

Screwball
04-24-2008, 02:42 PM
I think he signs him, mainly because Castellini wants him here. Plus, when has Jocketty not signed (and traded) one of his marquee players? (Edmonds, Pujols, McGwire, et al)

Yep. I voted LTC for the reasons above.

princeton
04-24-2008, 02:44 PM
I think he signs him, mainly because Castellini wants him here.


right, I figure that WayneK and Redreadellini have disagreed long enough on this issue, and it came to a head.

Jocketty will do what the owner wants on this one, and Dunn will stay if that's what Dunn wants.

Sea Ray
04-24-2008, 03:36 PM
I think he will be signed to a multiyear deal but Walt does have to be careful here. I don't think Dunn is a .200 hitter but he shows no signs of becoming an All Star either. If Dunn's agent wants too much for him I say let him walk.

lollipopcurve
04-24-2008, 03:42 PM
I think they'll sign him and let Griffey go.

OnBaseMachine
04-24-2008, 03:45 PM
I made a half-jokingly suggestion last night in chat - let both Dunn and Griffey walk and sign Mark Teixeira to play 1B and move Votto to left. I wouldn't give him anymore than 15 million a year over four years, so I'm most likely wishful thinking.

Benihana
04-24-2008, 03:46 PM
I think he will be signed to a multiyear deal but Walt does have to be careful here. I don't think Dunn is a .200 hitter but he shows no signs of becoming an All Star either. If Dunn's agent wants too much for him I say let him walk.

Agreed. I'd offer $60 MM over 4, no more.

Unassisted
04-24-2008, 03:46 PM
If Dunn's agent wants too much for him I say let him walk.
Are the Reds likely to get compensation if he walks?

Benihana
04-24-2008, 03:46 PM
I made a half-jokingly suggestion last night in chat - let both Dunn and Griffey walk and sign Mark Teixeira to play 1B and move Votto to left. I wouldn't give him anymore than 15 million a year over four years, so I'm most likely wishful thinking.

I'd rather have Tex than Dunn too, mainly because he can switch-hit. Too bad he'd never sign here though, particularly for that kind of money.

Raisor
04-24-2008, 03:47 PM
I think he will be signed to a multiyear deal but Walt does have to be careful here. I don't think Dunn is a .200 hitter but he shows no signs of becoming an All Star either. If Dunn's agent wants too much for him I say let him walk.

There's no way I'd let him walk. If you can't sign him before the deadline, you have to trade him to get something.

Rojo
04-24-2008, 03:51 PM
right, I figure that WayneK and Redreadellini have disagreed long enough on this issue, and it came to a head.

Jocketty will do what the owner wants on this one, and Dunn will stay if that's what Dunn wants.


Krivsky over-signs everone but doesn't say boo about an extension for Dunn. I think he wanted to scrap the Dunn/Jr./short-porch model.

Sea Ray
04-24-2008, 03:58 PM
Are the Reds likely to get compensation if he walks?

I think we'll get two draft picks if we offer him arbitration.


There's no way I'd let him walk. If you can't sign him before the deadline, you have to trade him to get something.

Depends on what you can get for him. What if the offer is like Matt Maloney and Danny Ray Herrera?


Agreed. I'd offer $60 MM over 4, no more.

Yeah, actually he's not even worth that. That's Vlad Guerrero money and even more than Pujols is making. Anyone who pipes up that Richie Sexson is making $15.5mill will be forced to defend that to the face of a Mariner fan :D

Far East
04-24-2008, 04:01 PM
I'd rather have Tex than Dunn too, mainly because he can switch-hit. Too bad he'd never sign here though, particularly for that kind of money.

Too late now, but it would have been much cheaper to have kept Cantu and Hamilton. The Reds might not have a losing record right now if these bats were in the lineup with Votto, Encarnacion, and Phillips: 2008, to date:

Jorge Cantu: .325 .381 .532 .913
Josh Hamilton: .310 .373 .552 .924

No need for Dunn or Griffey. I wonder what kind of pitching Adam and Junior could have brought in a trade/trades?

Spring~Fields
04-24-2008, 04:02 PM
I think he signs him, mainly because Castellini wants him here. Plus, when has Jocketty not signed (and traded) one of his marquee players? (Edmonds, Pujols, McGwire, et al)

I don't know what he will do with him, I would guess let him walk or trade him. The thought that Castellini wants him here might be the kiss of the death, you saw what happened to the other guys that Castellini wanted here. :oops:

Sea Ray
04-24-2008, 04:19 PM
Too late now, but it would have been much cheaper to have kept Cantu and Hamilton. The Reds might not have a losing record right now if these bats were in the lineup with Votto, Encarnacion, and Phillips: 2008, to date:

Jorge Cantu: .325 .381 .532 .913
Josh Hamilton: .310 .373 .552 .924

No need for Dunn or Griffey. I wonder what kind of pitching Adam and Junior could have brought in a trade/trades?

That's a good thought but guys like Griffey and Dunn would not have netted us Volquez. They wanted Hamilton and why not? He's playing CF and leading the league in RBIs.

KronoRed
04-24-2008, 05:31 PM
Same thing Krivsky was going to do, let him go, trade or draft picks.

Ltlabner
04-24-2008, 05:44 PM
I'm leaning towards signing him long term. I just hope he doesn't go overboard as Dunn's skills could fall apart age 33ish. Maybe they woln't, but for his type of player and his body/type I wouldn't be signing him till age 38. I certinally hope he's here for another 3 or 4 years.

But it's a very close 2nd that he'll trade him for a raft of prospects (once the partial no-trade thingy passes).

Caveat Emperor
04-24-2008, 05:45 PM
I think he'll stay around.

With the offense floundering the way it is, the last thing the team really needs to think about is how to replace #44's production.

Will M
04-24-2008, 05:53 PM
2009:
RF - Bruce
CF - unknown. needs to be someone with the true speed to cover CF.
How much offense we need from CF depends on who plays C & SS.
LF - Dunn, Jr or EE ( assuming he continues to botch his throws ).

I have no idea what Walt's plan will be for LF but I think Bob C will have a say. I truly hope he doesn't want to keep both Jr & Dunn.

Rojo
04-24-2008, 06:41 PM
2009:
RF - Bruce
CF - unknown. needs to be someone with the true speed to cover CF.
How much offense we need from CF depends on who plays C & SS.
LF - Dunn, Jr or EE ( assuming he continues to botch his throws ).

I have no idea what Walt's plan will be for LF but I think Bob C will have a say. I truly hope he doesn't want to keep both Jr & Dunn.

EE in left, Kepp at third, Jr. walks, Dunn for up-the-middle players (Willits would be nice).

corkedbat
04-24-2008, 09:24 PM
I guessed he'll re-sygn him. I say so because I can't see them bringing KGJ back and letting he and AD both go would pretty well signal a rebuilding project (something I don't see BCast or Dusty would stand for) unless Jocketty can somehow take their conract money and turn it into an offensive force (or two - LF & CF) to place in the middle of Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto & Bruce.

CTA513
04-24-2008, 09:27 PM
The first thing he does is put out a reward for the return of Dunn and Griffeys chairs that Dave Miley took.

;)

reds44
04-24-2008, 09:31 PM
EE in left, Kepp at third, Jr. walks, Dunn for up-the-middle players (Willits would be nice).
I'm thinking you are right on the EE in left and Keppinger at 3rd part. Dunn for a SS and CF would be nice, but there is really no reason to let either Dunn or Junior walk. Decide what you are going to do with them now, and either start talking extension with Dunn and/or agree to pick up Griffey's option, or trade them both before July 31st. No reason for them to walk.

Rojo
04-25-2008, 12:45 PM
I'm thinking you are right on the EE in left and Keppinger at 3rd part. Dunn for a SS and CF would be nice, but there is really no reason to let either Dunn or Junior walk. Decide what you are going to do with them now, and either start talking extension with Dunn and/or agree to pick up Griffey's option, or trade them both before July 31st. No reason for them to walk.


It were me, it'd be decided, they're gone. Sure, get whatever you can for 'em.

coachw513
04-25-2008, 12:54 PM
Fascinating...at the moment, 23-23-2 for the poll...AD's a galvanizing force, that's for sure...

IMO:
1. Dunn's value to the Reds is higher than it will be for other teams...to trade him does not get full value...
2. Dunn's value to the Reds will increase upon the termination of Griffey's contract at the end of the season...with the lack of redundancy (LH power, no defense, etc), his strengths will be of greater value...
3. I do not believe it possible to trade and get an equally talented RH outfielder, and that would be the only way I would move him...
4. It's not very simple to find 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 RS, and high OPS with a single player in your lineup...and yes, I continue to find no reason that won't continue to occur for the term of another 4 years...

Sea Ray
04-25-2008, 01:02 PM
Fascinating...at the moment, 23-23-2 for the poll...AD's a galvanizing force, that's for sure...

IMO:
1. Dunn's value to the Reds is higher than it will be for other teams...to trade him does not get full value...
2. Dunn's value to the Reds will increase upon the termination of Griffey's contract at the end of the season...with the lack of redundancy (LH power, no defense, etc), his strengths will be of greater value...
3. I do not believe it possible to trade and get an equally talented RH outfielder, and that would be the only way I would move him...
4. It's not very simple to find 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 RS, and high OPS with a single player in your lineup...and yes, I continue to find no reason that won't continue to occur for the term of another 4 years...


All good points, but the question wasn't what should WJ do, it was what will he do, so we're voting on what we think WJ will do.

jmcclain19
04-25-2008, 01:03 PM
I'd bet on him signing him.

Jocketty's always tended to be a stars & scrubs type of GM - and Adam Dunn is the Reds brightest Star at the moment. I'd say he keeps him in house.

Jpup
04-25-2008, 01:29 PM
I think Dunn is going to walk after the season and Jocketty will let him. I would love to see that list of 10 teams.

princeton
04-25-2008, 01:47 PM
having watched Jocketty for some years, I'd say that Adam Dunn is more the type of player that WJ picks up at the trade deadline: undervalued but highly paid player with questions about the heart.

Rojo
04-25-2008, 01:48 PM
1. Dunn's value to the Reds is higher than it will be for other teams...to trade him does not get full value...
2. Dunn's value to the Reds will increase upon the termination of Griffey's contract at the end of the season...with the lack of redundancy (LH power, no defense, etc), his strengths will be of greater value...
3. I do not believe it possible to trade and get an equally talented RH outfielder, and that would be the only way I would move him...
4. It's not very simple to find 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 RS, and high OPS with a single player in your lineup...and yes, I continue to find no reason that won't continue to occur for the term of another 4 years...

1. Power hitters are pretty fungible. And with Bruce, Votto and EdE, the Reds have decent power.

2. True, carrying one DH in the outfield is acceptable. That's why I don't give him away. But the lack of up-the-middle players has been a glaring problem for a while. Get some, Dunn's the bait.

3. EdE won't OPS like Dunn but he'll probably hit enough to complement Bruce. Plus, RH left-fielders are easy enough to come by. If EdE flops or becomes to expensive find some other iron-glove, bronze slugger.

4. But you don't necessarily need one. The Yankee teams of the late 90's had exactly one 40-hr season in five years -- the one year they didn't win it all. They barely had any 30+ seasons. What they did have was spread. Lot's of players could hit it out, get on base, put it in play and run the bases. It was a flexible slump-proof offense.

coachw513
04-25-2008, 02:22 PM
All good points, but the question wasn't what should WJ do, it was what will he do, so we're voting on what we think WJ will do.

Dang, dude...it's hard enough for me to figure out what I'd do :D

coachw513
04-25-2008, 02:27 PM
4. But you don't necessarily need one. The Yankee teams of the late 90's had exactly one 40-hr season in five years -- the one year they didn't win it all. They barely had any 30+ seasons. What they did have was spread. Lot's of players could hit it out, get on base, put it in play and run the bases. It was a flexible slump-proof offense.


I guess I just don't buy the ascertion that without Dunn we would suddenly have all of the other things you mention above...the Reds are not slump-proof because we have Dunn...I'm more prone to believe we become more slump-proof with the addition of Bruce, the continued improvement of Votto and EE and a more palatable solution in CF from an offensive standpoint...

Rojo
04-25-2008, 03:55 PM
I guess I just don't buy the ascertion that without Dunn we would suddenly have all of the other things you mention above...the Reds are not slump-proof because we have Dunn...I'm more prone to believe we become more slump-proof with the addition of Bruce, the continued improvement of Votto and EE and a more palatable solution in CF from an offensive standpoint...

I think you're missing my point. I'm not crazy enough to suggest that Dunn drags down an offense. Its just that you don't necessarily need a huge bat in the line-up if you've got a lot of good multi-dimensional players who get on base.

Highlifeman21
04-25-2008, 04:33 PM
Fascinating...at the moment, 23-23-2 for the poll...AD's a galvanizing force, that's for sure...

IMO:
1. Dunn's value to the Reds is higher than it will be for other teams...to trade him does not get full value...
2. Dunn's value to the Reds will increase upon the termination of Griffey's contract at the end of the season...with the lack of redundancy (LH power, no defense, etc), his strengths will be of greater value...
3. I do not believe it possible to trade and get an equally talented RH outfielder, and that would be the only way I would move him...
4. It's not very simple to find 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 RS, and high OPS with a single player in your lineup...and yes, I continue to find no reason that won't continue to occur for the term of another 4 years...

Excellent summary.

Dunn's value is highest to remain a Red. It's been that way for years.

membengal
04-25-2008, 04:51 PM
I bet on him being dealt, not because I necessarily want him to, but because I was guessing that Dunn might be likeliest piece to move that might allow Jocketty to try and address whatever he sees as the immediate issues with the offense.

Rojo
04-25-2008, 04:53 PM
Dunn's value is highest to remain a Red. It's been that way for years.

Maybe. But you don't want to get so caught up in player valuations that you loose sight of championships.

fearofpopvol1
04-25-2008, 05:04 PM
I'm kind of torn. I don't really think Dunn is the kind of player that fits in with the current Reds. I'm not opposed to giving him a new contract, but I am opposed to overpaying, which is what the Reds would probably have to do to keep him.

I'd certainly listen to offers, but this is a tough situation.

Also, I can't imagine the Reds will re-sign Griffey.

Spring~Fields
04-25-2008, 05:26 PM
I'm kind of torn. I don't really think Dunn is the kind of player that fits in with the current Reds. I'm not opposed to giving him a new contract, but I am opposed to overpaying, which is what the Reds would probably have to do to keep him.

I'd certainly listen to offers, but this is a tough situation.

Also, I can't imagine the Reds will re-sign Griffey.

Espn says that Dunn is almost making Pujols money now

Dunn - $13,000,000
Pujols - $13,870,949

I don’t see Dunn getting paid more than Pujols is by the Reds. Then again I did not see them paying Cordero what they are paying him either.

I just have it in my mind that Jocketty will want to go in a different direction by letting Dunn and Griffey head off to another team, and find adequate replacements to Jocketty’s liking with the payroll flex.

Me, I would like Jocketty to kind of clean out the past and move forward in a manner that he feels will best suit the Reds next season and into the future.

Looks like Wayne over paid on his contract to since Pujols out produces him for not much more money.


2006 StL 143 535 119 177 33 1 49 137 92 50 7 2 .331 .431 .671 1.102
2007 StL 158 565 99 185 38 1 32 103 99 58 2 6 .327 .429 .568 .997
2008 StL 23 77 14 29 6 0 4 17 22 7 2 0 .377 .525 .610 1.135

gm
04-25-2008, 05:38 PM
It all depends on how much of a defensive liability WJ thinks Dunn will be, going forward. WJ is big on defense, while Adam is just plain big and won't ever run any faster than he does right now. We also know that Dunn will not grab a first baseman's mitt and start playing defense like Sir Albert (besides, Joey Votto has arrived, so the "Dunn to 1b" arguments should fade)

So this points to:

Trade Dunn to an AL team, for his career's own good, and for the sake of the team's defense

Now the question is, will Bob "let" Walt deal Dunn? That's up to Jocketty to do the convincing, assuming he thinks Adam will become an increasing defensive liability during the life of his LTC

Chip R
04-25-2008, 06:45 PM
Now the question is, will Bob "let" Walt deal Dunn? That's up to Jocketty to do the convincing, assuming he thinks Adam will become an increasing defensive liability during the life of his LTC


Good question. If Bob and Adam are as tight as we are led to believe, it's going to be tough to convince Bob to let him go. However, if anyone can convince Bob to let Dunn go it's Walt. Maybe he feels Dunn leaving is best for all parties and if he does feel like that, he needs to convince Bob of that regardless of Bob's personal feelings for the big guy.

Highlifeman21
04-25-2008, 10:53 PM
Maybe. But you don't want to get so caught up in player valuations that you loose sight of championships.

Are you saying that we have a better chance at championships sans Dunn than with Dunn?

Sea Ray
04-25-2008, 11:12 PM
I bet on him being dealt, not because I necessarily want him to, but because I was guessing that Dunn might be likeliest piece to move that might allow Jocketty to try and address whatever he sees as the immediate issues with the offense.


That assumes another team is willing to offer us something significant in return. I'm under the impression that offers for Dunn have been underwhelming in recent years. If he limits our choices to ten teams, I'm thinking our offers for him will be quite limited.

Rojo
04-26-2008, 05:42 PM
Are you saying that we have a better chance at championships sans Dunn than with Dunn?

That's a gross simplification. Don't taz me bro, I think Dunn's a net asset -- a big one.

I'm saying this team, with its weak up-the-middle defense, statuesque outfielders and single-dimensional offense, is not poised to win it all.

Replacing Jr with Bruce would help and it makes carrying Dunn's glove more practical. But it still leaves us short a centerfielder, a true lead-off hitter, a shortstop; and with questionable gloves at third, first and catcher.

RFS62
04-26-2008, 05:43 PM
Nothing but my opinion, but I think Jocketty will trade Dunn.

Pitching and defense.