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Matt700wlw
04-24-2008, 04:28 PM
Reds don't want to rush Bailey, Bruce
Pitcher, outfielder developing, growing at Triple-A Louisville
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com


CINCINNATI -- Two-fifths of the Reds' rotation hasn't been getting it done. The offense has sputtered as some hitters have been slow to heat up.

Help is only a phone call away at Triple-A Louisville, where the organization's top two prospects -- pitcher Homer Bailey and outfielder Jay Bruce -- just happen to be flourishing.

Manager Dusty Baker said on Thursday that promoting Bailey and Bruce was a consideration, but indicated it wasn't the preferred one yet.

"The thing about it, though, is you don't want to stunt their progress and growth," Baker said. "It's very tempting to think only of today vs. thinking what's right for them and us in the long run, for years to come. A month can be worth years in terms of experience and confidence."

Veteran Bronson Arroyo was roughed up again in a 9-3 loss to the Astros on Wednesday and has yet to provide a six-inning start or get a win this season. The fifth-spot was first occupied by Josh Fogg, who struggled. Fogg's replacement, Matt Belisle, was pounded on Monday by the Dodgers.

Bailey is 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA in four starts. He has four walks and 16 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings. Baker's reports say that the 21-year-old has cut down on his pitch count and shortened his delivery to better hold runners.

Bruce, the top prospect in all of baseball, entered Thursday batting .315 with three home runs and 12 RBIs.

Baker wasn't prepared to say that either Bailey or Bruce was ready for promotions. Baker has only viewed reports, but is, obviously, unable to see their improvements with his own eye.

The manager also wasn't willing to say the Reds needed the prospects.

"Need is not the issue right now," Baker said. "The issue is we've got guys here that have done the job and are about to do the job. You're telling me Adam Dunn is not going to hit 40 home runs? You're telling me [Ken Griffey Jr.] isn't going to hit 30 home runs, no matter how they've started? Is three weeks enough to say that they're ready for here?

"I'm dying for them to get here. I really am. I'm excited for when they get here. But sometimes you have sit on your hands and let them play. It's best for them."

Reds Fanatic
04-24-2008, 04:38 PM
This is from Fay's blog today on the same subject


Reds manager Dusty Baker is as eager as most Reds fans to see outfielder Jay Bruce and pitcher Homer Bailey in a Reds uniform, but he says the club has to make sure it does the right thing by the two highly-regarded prospects while considering the club’s long-term needs.

“You’re not going to bring them up and don’t play them,” Baker said Thursday. “You want them to tear it up versus coming here prematurely and then have to go back. Even if we need them, you’ve got to do what’s right, number one, for the kids because when they get here, they’re not going back.”

Has it reached the point during the Reds’ slow start where they really do need Bruce and Bailey?

“Need is not the issue right now,” Baker said. “The issue is we’ve got guys here that have done the job and are about to do the job. I mean, are you going to tell me Adam Dunn is not going to hit 40 home runs? Are you going to tell me Griff’s not going to hit 30 home runs?
“I’m dying for them to get here. I really am. I’m excited about it. But sometimes you have to sit on your hands and let them play.”

Asked if he believed that Bruce and Bailey were ready to succeed in the big leagues, Baker said he wasn’t sure.

“I’m not there with them,” he said. “I see the reports. Three weeks isn’t a real long period of time. Jay Bruce has been there three weeks and for Homer Bailey it’s his second tour there.

“Homer has cut down his pitches. He’s cut down his delivery so they don’t run on him all the time. There’s more things to learn than just hitting and pitching if you’re going to win in the big leagues because those guys will capitalize on the little things you don’t do that may not show up in the box scores.”

Spring~Fields
04-24-2008, 04:45 PM
"Need is not the issue right now," Baker said. "The issue is we've got guys here that have done the job and are about to do the job. You're telling me Adam Dunn is not going to hit 40 home runs? You're telling me [Ken Griffey Jr.] isn't going to hit 30 home runs, no matter how they've started? Is three weeks enough to say that they're ready for here?



:ughmamoru:ughmamoru

Dusty I know you weren't aware of how Patterson was doing.

I need to ask you a question, Dusty are you watching the same team that we are? :explode:

Dusty who said we were talking about Dunn and Griffey? What about that dark hole that you brought in here in center?


"The thing about it, though, is you don't want to stunt their progress and growth," Baker said. "It's very tempting to think only of today vs. thinking what's right for them and us in the long run, for years to come.

Dusty I don't believe you. I think that your thinking of Patterson and Hairston and covering your backside for bringing them in here.

bucksfan2
04-24-2008, 04:55 PM
Everyone who has covered Dusty said he would not embarass his players nor sell them out in the media. Dusty is doing just that. After today's game I want to see some changes as a Reds fan. You can't allow your team to continue to play the bad baseball they are playing.

Benihana
04-24-2008, 05:05 PM
good

Aronchis
04-24-2008, 05:10 PM
I agree. They probably represent your 2 highest physical ceilings in the organization. Timing is crucial.

Bruce needs to lay off bad pitches more than he has. Once he goes through a nice run of doing that for a couple weeks I would bring him up.

Bailey needs to finish getting his legs under him and getting in rythem with his fastball/breaking pitch routine. It isn't there yet and we shouldn't rush him. But if he gets on a multie start role, then I would bring him up.

PuffyPig
04-24-2008, 05:52 PM
Dusty I know you weren't aware of how Patterson was doing.

I need to ask you a question, Dusty are you watching the same team that we are? :explode:

Dusty who said we were talking about Dunn and Griffey? What about that dark hole that you brought in here in center?



Dusty I don't believe you. I think that your thinking of Patterson and Hairston and covering your backside for bringing them in here.

Current OPS on the Reds:

Hairston 1.000
Patterson .818
Griffey .772
Dunn .773

Based on fielding ability, speed etc., you still think that our CF is the problem, and not Griffey and Dunn?

dougdirt
04-24-2008, 06:20 PM
Current OPS on the Reds:

Hairston 1.000
Patterson .818
Griffey .772
Dunn .773

Based on fielding ability, speed etc., you still think that our CF is the problem, and not Griffey and Dunn?

I do, as far as hitting. I wouldn't put money on Patterson having an OPS 30 points less than what he has now by the end of the season. On the flip side, if Griffey and Dunn both have an OPS lower than their current OPS + 50 points by seasons end I will be shocked. Patterson can play CF all he wants. His defense is very good out there. Just bat him 7th, 8th or 9th.

Spring~Fields
04-24-2008, 06:30 PM
Current OPS on the Reds:

Hairston 1.000
Patterson .818
Griffey .772
Dunn .773

Based on fielding ability, speed etc., you still think that our CF is the problem, and not Griffey and Dunn?

It is not about Dunn and Griffey to me. Baker is using Griffey and Dunn in the report above to push the attention away from Patterson and other issues with the team that he has had a role in.

Dunn and Griffey will hit what they hit, it is the supporting cast that has been a problem up until recently with Encarion and Votto coming on and Bako hitting over his head. Front end of the order has not produced enough or put enough pressure on the opposing team. There is an accumlation of games, not just recent ones.

As you indicate that Dunn and Griffey are issues too with their performance, so why is Dusty not addressing them in modifications until they are performing better? Why has Baker in spite of what he has seen continue to place them Griffey, Phillips, and Dunn in the same non-effective positioning to date with a couple exceptions?

Phillips is struggling too, not a cleanup hitter and not protection for Griffey. For the longest time Baker had Encarcion who was struggling badly behind Dunn who has walked a great deal and did have the highest OB% on the team.

I could assume that the manager and coaching staff did not have many members on this team well prepared to start the season and that some of them are still struggling.

I believe that the team would be better served with Bruce out there.

PuffyPig
04-24-2008, 06:31 PM
I do, as far as hitting. I wouldn't put money on Patterson having an OPS 30 points less than what he has now by the end of the season. On the flip side, if Griffey and Dunn both have an OPS lower than their current OPS + 50 points by seasons end I will be shocked. Patterson can play CF all he wants. His defense is very good out there. Just bat him 7th, 8th or 9th.

The post I quoted was talking about the problem to date. Patterson hasn't been it, at least not close to the problem the middle of our lineup has been.

KronoRed
04-24-2008, 06:33 PM
Wasn't this article written last season?

Spring~Fields
04-24-2008, 06:38 PM
Wasn't this article written last season?



It does look like a rerun.

I hope that the astute baseball people with the Reds do their homework soon and catch on and make the corrections.

REDREAD
04-24-2008, 06:42 PM
:
Dusty who said we were talking about Dunn and Griffey? What about that dark hole that you brought in here in center?

Dusty I don't believe you. I think that your thinking of Patterson and Hairston and covering your backside for bringing them in here.

Well, in fairness to Dusty, Patterson has seen his playing time reduced. Freel and Hariston have been getting more playing time.

I think Dusty's point is to not rush the prospects. As he said, the future is more important than a quick desperation fix to save this season.

I admire Wayne for having the guts to leave Homer and Bruce in AAA.
The easy thing would've been to have them on the 25 man roster on opening day.

Spring~Fields
04-24-2008, 06:47 PM
Well, in fairness to Dusty, Patterson has seen his playing time reduced. Freel and Hariston have been getting more playing time.

I think Dusty's point is to not rush the prospects. As he said, the future is more important than a quick desperation fix to save this season.

I admire Wayne for having the guts to leave Homer and Bruce in AAA.
The easy thing would've been to have them on the 25 man roster on opening day.

I don't think that there is any question that Bailey needed more work and will benefit from AAA.

I wish Wayne would have had the guts to inform Baker where players like Dunn, Griffey, Phillips, Ecncarcion and Freel performed better in the lineups in the past and had him start them there from day one until it was found that it had to be modified.

OnBaseMachine
04-24-2008, 08:30 PM
The Reds, of course, are being pushed by media and fans to bring up Homer Bailey - right now - and Jay Bruce - right now.

Baker would like to see them, too - when the organization thinks they are ready. He doesn’t want to rush them and abort the progress of two 21-year-old futures.

The question? Are they ready? Will they be better than what now occupies the roster, where a lot of dead weight squats.

Bailey is 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA at Class AAA Louisville with 16 strikeouts and four walks in 26 1/3 innings. I’ve been told that Bailey was instructed to pretty much toss his curve ball into File 13 and go with his fastball, slider and changeup. That’s a tough thing because Bailey always relied on that curve and likes to revert to it when he gets in trouble.

The main thing, though, and Baker mentioned this, is that reports indicate Bailey has cut down on his pitch-count, which killed him this spring and got his ticket punched to Louisville.

Bruce is hitting .315 with three homers and 12 RBIs at Louisville. One of the last things Wayne Krivsky said, AFTER he was fired and before he walked out the door, was about Bruce.

“Everybody in our organization agreed it was the right thing to do to send Bruce to Louisville,” he said. “What most people forget is that two-thirds of Bruce’s at-bats last year were at Class A Sarasota. Give the kid time.”

How much time? Is it time? Do the Reds go for it now with the two kids or do they hold back and make sure they are ready for the bigs?

I say, “Bring ‘em up. Now. They certainly can’t hurt what this team is doing right now. Who knows, they might help.” If they’re overmatched, they can always be returned to sender.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

Aronchis
04-24-2008, 08:34 PM
The Reds, of course, are being pushed by media and fans to bring up Homer Bailey - right now - and Jay Bruce - right now.

Baker would like to see them, too - when the organization thinks they are ready. He doesn’t want to rush them and abort the progress of two 21-year-old futures.

The question? Are they ready? Will they be better than what now occupies the roster, where a lot of dead weight squats.

Bailey is 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA at Class AAA Louisville with 16 strikeouts and four walks in 26 1/3 innings. I’ve been told that Bailey was instructed to pretty much toss his curve ball into File 13 and go with his fastball, slider and changeup. That’s a tough thing because Bailey always relied on that curve and likes to revert to it when he gets in trouble.

The main thing, though, and Baker mentioned this, is that reports indicate Bailey has cut down on his pitch-count, which killed him this spring and got his ticket punched to Louisville.

Bruce is hitting .315 with three homers and 12 RBIs at Louisville. One of the last things Wayne Krivsky said, AFTER he was fired and before he walked out the door, was about Bruce.

“Everybody in our organization agreed it was the right thing to do to send Bruce to Louisville,” he said. “What most people forget is that two-thirds of Bruce’s at-bats last year were at Class A Sarasota. Give the kid time.”

How much time? Is it time? Do the Reds go for it now with the two kids or do they hold back and make sure they are ready for the bigs?

I say, “Bring ‘em up. Now. They certainly can’t hurt what this team is doing right now. Who knows, they might help.” If they’re overmatched, they can always be returned to sender.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

I didn't know they told him to ditch the curveball. No wonder he is struggling getting k's.

Matt700wlw
04-24-2008, 08:36 PM
He's getting outs and he's not walking people...

I don't care how they're getting out, ultimately.

KronoRed
04-24-2008, 11:13 PM
If he comes up just throwing heat he'll be back down in short order.

OnBaseMachine
04-24-2008, 11:16 PM
Jay Bruce is OPSing .950 after tonight's game.

reds44
04-24-2008, 11:17 PM
Jay Bruce is OPSing .950 after tonight's game.
I'd call him up and leave Bailey in AAA.

But that's just me.

cumberlandreds
04-25-2008, 08:47 AM
I'd call him up and leave Bailey in AAA.

But that's just me.

That's what I would do too. Bring Bruce up and see what he can do. If he looks like the real deal then you shop Dunn or Griffey for a RH bat.

BRM
04-25-2008, 10:21 AM
Jay Bruce is OPSing .950 after tonight's game.

Is he taking walks yet?

OnBaseMachine
04-25-2008, 11:29 AM
Is he taking walks yet?

He's got four but I'm not really worried about that. Everytime I follow his atbats on Gameday he gets into hitters count and works the pitcher. Just last night he had a three ball count three times in four atbats, that shows me the walks will come. Right now he's just hitting his pitch instead of fouling it off and taking a walk. I wish there was a website that kept track of P/PA for minor leaguers.

Spring~Fields
04-25-2008, 11:34 AM
The Reds will need gimmicks to boost tickets sales with yet another losing team.

I expect to see Bruce then.

KronoRed
04-25-2008, 12:06 PM
The Reds will need gimmicks to boost tickets sales with yet another losing team.

I expect to see Bruce then.

Exactly, "come see this kid who will SAVE THE SEASON" ;)

Matt700wlw
04-25-2008, 05:58 PM
The Reds will need gimmicks to boost tickets sales with yet another losing team.

I expect to see Bruce then.

Bruce isn't a gimmick...he's a young stud who has earned the right to be here.

Spring~Fields
04-25-2008, 06:14 PM
Bruce isn't a gimmick...he's a young stud who has earned the right to be here.

You have the insider track. ;)

You tell Dusty, I already know it. Get rid of those "Cub factors" Patterson and Hairston. Put a real baseball player out there. :thumbup:

Management will use him for a ticket boost gimmick if they think it will help. Cover the Dusty/Walt coup.

OnBaseMachine
04-26-2008, 03:50 AM
Jocketty probing

New General Manager Walt Jocketty is on the trip, and before he makes decisions — including the immediate futures of pitcher Homer Bailey and outfielder Jay Bruce (3-for-4 with a homer Thursday at Class AAA Louisville) — he plans a series of chats with his staff.

"What I want to do is, well, I have meetings set up here and in St. Louis," he said. "I'll talk with Scott Nethery (assistant GM), 'J' Harrison (director of professional scouting), Chris Buckley (senior director of scouting), Bob Miller (vice president and assistant general manager) is here. Dick Williams (director of baseball business operations) is coming here.

"I talked to Terry Reynolds (director of player development on a conference call (Thursday)," Jocketty added. "I'll talk to Dusty and coaches, and get their input, too, on everything, including Bailey and Bruce. That's one of the things I believe in — soliciting the opinions of a lot of people, and over time, you learn who to rely on more than others."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/04/25/ddn042608spredsnotes.html

Caveat Emperor
04-26-2008, 04:27 AM
Just last night he had a three ball count three times in four atbats, that shows me the walks will come.

In order to get the walk, you've gotta take ball four instead of swinging at it and fouling it off to get the pitcher back to a full count.

RedlegJake
04-26-2008, 05:23 AM
Bruce I'd bring up, Bailey no, especially if he's dropped the curve and added a slider. In that scenario I'd leave him in AAA all year and call him up after AAA shuts down. You really expect him to make that big a change and rush back up?

Bruce however would add offense to the hole that is the CFer position. That one stroke improves the offense by removing what has become an almost automatic out spot in the lineup wherever the CFer is batting (and we know where that is don't we, Dusty?). In other words we'd no longer have an 8 hitter in the 1 spot. That has to help.

Then just make the 2-3-4-5 spots Kepp-Junior-EE-Votto and drop BP to 6th, Dunn to 7th (YES I KNOW but Dusty isn't about to move him up now is he? So I'd drop him and let him keep walking until he begins to hit) and finally Bako/Ross.

That's L-R down the lineup. Better hitters and OBP at the top except Dunn and he basically restarts the engines and should be on base fairly often for Bruce to start things again.

Lineup construction isn't the whole problem but you know what? It IS part of the problem. The big problems for me? The leadoff spot. And BP being ruined hitting leadoff. Guy is trying to park one every at bat.

Next I'd put Affeldt in the rotation for a start or two and sit Arroyo down (just for one or two starts - let him work long in the pen if needed). If Belisle sucks it up in the next couple starts and Jeremy pitches okay maybe you found your 5th starter until Homer gets here (all we really need from the 5 hole is a 5.5 era/5 for the 5 so to speak and that's within Affeldt's capabilities), plus you give Arroyo a break to get his arm and head together a bit.

It gives him rest if he needs it and sends a message, too. It's simple - "we don't want to pay 12 million for a long reliever, Bronson, but its better than paying you to muck up every start". I'd really like to just DL Bronson for a short stint and bring up Bray.

Then if Matt does have a couple more ugly starts then he should be gone. Bronson comes back and Bray stays. Enough chances. It's time.