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View Full Version : KGJ, BP, and Dunn = REALLY, REALLY BAD



Edskin
04-24-2008, 04:17 PM
OK, I'm coming at you with some numbers here. Whenever a team is struggling, most people look to their worst players as the cause. I tend to focus on the BEST players. If I come to find that the good players are actually getting the job done, then I move on to other things. But in this case, there is no moving on.

I took our 14 losses this year.

I took the numbers of the middle of our order (KGJ, Phillips, and Dunn)

What I found is VERY, VERY ugly and may help explain why we've sturggled so badly to score runs in those losses.

In those 14 losses...

KGJ: 13-49 (.265); 7 RBI; 2 HR; 3 BB; 4 K
BP: 12-53 (.222); 2 RBI; 0 HR; 4 BB; 14 K
Dunn: 7-39 (.179); 3 RBI; 1 HR; 12 BB; 11 K

They have combined...

32-142 (.225) with an average of .86 RBI's per game, .21 HR's per game, 1.36 BB's per game, and 2.07 K's per game.

Just some stuff to chew on. Ouch.

Strikes Out Looking
04-24-2008, 04:19 PM
Edskin, you have hit the nail on the head. As the heart of the lineup goes, so goes the Reds...and evidently so goes Mr. Wayne.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-24-2008, 04:20 PM
Why is the hottest hitter in baseball (EE) hitting 6th?

dougdirt
04-24-2008, 04:21 PM
So Griffey has a .256 BABIP over that time then, Dunn has a .259 BABIP over that time and Phillips has just flat out sucked.

I think what we are seeing is small sample size and bad luck on part of the lefties. Phillips is just not making contact at all and failing to get on base.

Kc61
04-24-2008, 04:21 PM
This is the crux of the problem. When you watch guys like Berkman in the middle of the Astros order, you see what the Reds are missing.

This is why all the talk about a "righty hitter off the bench" misses the point. It assumes that the Reds starting lineup is fine, that the bench is the problem.

The Reds are built around long ball hitters prone to slumps. They need more consistent, higher BA hitters in the middle of the lineup. Not to say all of KG, AD, and BP need to depart, but serious additions are necessary.

Edskin
04-24-2008, 04:22 PM
Edskin, you have hit the nail on the head. As the heart of the lineup goes, so goes the Reds...and evidently so goes Mr. Wayne.

That's a valid point, but honestly, if those three don't get the job done, we have NO chance this year regardless of the batting order.

Sure, Arroyo has hurt us this year and Dusty's CF/leadoff infatuation is silly, but overall, the "Big Three" are our "Big Problem" so far in 2008.

dougdirt
04-24-2008, 04:22 PM
The bigger issue is the wrong right hander is splitting up the lefties in the middle of the order. Brandon Phillips simply can't be in the middle of the lineup.

Kc61
04-24-2008, 04:24 PM
So Griffey has a .256 BABIP over that time then, Dunn has a .259 BABIP over that time and Phillips has just flat out sucked.

I think what we are seeing is small sample size and bad luck on part of the lefties. Phillips is just not making contact at all and failing to get on base.

Doug, I just couldn't disagree more. Dunn is prone to long slumps. Phillips is low OBP. Griffey's current level is "pretty good."

Even when things improve for them, this is not a championship core.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-24-2008, 04:25 PM
The bigger issue is the wrong right hander is splitting up the lefties in the middle of the order. Brandon Phillips simply can't be in the middle of the lineup.

Exactly, EE and BP should be switched.

Kc61
04-24-2008, 04:31 PM
The core of this offense, starting soon, needs to shift away from Dunn and Griffey IMO. If the Reds can sign Dunn and Griffey, sure, they can have a role, but they should not be the core of the offense. Neither should Phillips.

The core of this offense needs to be Jay Bruce, hitting third, from the left side and a high caliber righty bat hitting cleanup to compliment him. All the current guys, Phillips, Dunn, Griffey, EE, Votto, all can stay and hit second, fifth, sixth, whatever everyone wants.

But the Reds need a lefty/right one-two punch that hits for average with power and does so consistently.

They need two very high level hitters who are not currently on the major league team.

dougdirt
04-24-2008, 04:36 PM
Doug, I just couldn't disagree more. Dunn is prone to long slumps. Phillips is low OBP. Griffey's current level is "pretty good."

Even when things improve for them, this is not a championship core.

Sure Dunn is prone to long 'slumps' if you talk batting average. However even he is being unlucky over this stretch. He however is getting on base at a VERY high rate. If he didn't walk at all and had 12 singles over the same period no one would care. But because he has 12 walks instead of hits its a big deal.

It doesn't matter that this isn't a 'championship' core, whatever that actually means.... becuase both of the lefties are gone after this year anyways. Unless you really think Adam Dunn is going Andruw Jones on us, I think there is little concern for him. Griffey is going to hit you .270/.350/.475 or so for most of the year. The only concern there is, is Brandon Phillips who doesn't get on base and is getting a majority of his at bats in the cleanup spot even during this long slump of his. Even on his best days, he isn't the hitter Griffey is or that Dunn is.

PuffyPig
04-24-2008, 04:44 PM
Exactly, EE and BP should be switched.

I can remember not that long ago that most said that EE needed to be swithed with Crede, Inge or just about anyone else.

Spring~Fields
04-24-2008, 04:45 PM
In those 14 losses...

KGJ: 13-49 (.265); 7 RBI; 2 HR; 3 BB; 4 K
BP: 12-53 (.222); 2 RBI; 0 HR; 4 BB; 14 K
Dunn: 7-39 (.179); 3 RBI; 1 HR; 12 BB; 11 K

They have combined...

32-142 (.225) with an average of .86 RBI's per game, .21 HR's per game, 1.36 BB's per game, and 2.07 K's per game.

Just some stuff to chew on. Ouch.

Those three don't seem to be working in that order. Maybe Phillips isn't a cleanup hitter, maybe Dunn walks a lot and should be in front of the real cleanup hitter Griffey who is batting third.

"In those 14 losses..."

That really frustrates me to see the manager keep trying something that isn't working over and over.

I would have rather seen a modification until the three guys were clicking.

I agree with KC that the Reds need better players.

Until that time, I think that the manager needs to try really hard to put players where they are going to have an easier time of contributing more.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-24-2008, 04:46 PM
I can remember not that long ago that most said that EE needed to be swithed with Crede, Inge or just about anyone else.

About two weeks ago.

Edskin
04-24-2008, 04:47 PM
[QUOTE=dougdirt;1614547] If he didn't walk at all and had 12 singles over the same period no one would care. But because he has 12 walks instead of hits its a big deal.

QUOTE]

Just a technicality, but the above statement is not entirely true. If there were men on base in those instances, chances are singles would be more benefical than walks.

Kc61
04-24-2008, 04:49 PM
Sure Dunn is prone to long 'slumps' if you talk batting average. However even he is being unlucky over this stretch. He however is getting on base at a VERY high rate. If he didn't walk at all and had 12 singles over the same period no one would care. But because he has 12 walks instead of hits its a big deal.

It doesn't matter that this isn't a 'championship' core, whatever that actually means.... becuase both of the lefties are gone after this year anyways. Unless you really think Adam Dunn is going Andruw Jones on us, I think there is little concern for him. Griffey is going to hit you .270/.350/.475 or so for most of the year. The only concern there is, is Brandon Phillips who doesn't get on base and is getting a majority of his at bats in the cleanup spot even during this long slump of his. Even on his best days, he isn't the hitter Griffey is or that Dunn is.

I don't know whether Dunn will be gone, or Griffey will be gone, or Phillips will be gone. The Reds middle of the order is not a consistent group. There are long slumps. Low BAs.

Not to say they don't have some virtues. Not saying these guys are bad.

But until the Reds have top hitters, like Berkman who we saw today, they will be prone to inconsistency, "bad luck," etc.

I would switch EE and Phillips in the order as well. But the problem goes much deeper with this team. They need better hitters overall.

Highlifeman21
04-24-2008, 04:57 PM
The bigger issue is the wrong right hander is splitting up the lefties in the middle of the order. Brandon Phillips simply can't be in the middle of the lineup.

Bolded and quoted for truth.

Against LHP, sure, bat BP cleanup all you want.

Against RHP, he should bat no higher than 5th, and given The Dusty's Narron-esque tendecies to break up his LHB, I'd rather see EE 4th, and then take your pick of Dunn/Griffey 3rd and 5th. That leaves BP to bat 6th vs RHP, where he belongs.

Brandon Phillips makes truckloads of outs, and doesn't acquire many bases vs. RHP to bat in the middle of the lineup.

dougdirt
04-24-2008, 05:17 PM
I don't know whether Dunn will be gone, or Griffey will be gone, or Phillips will be gone. The Reds middle of the order is not a consistent group. There are long slumps. Low BAs.

Not to say they don't have some virtues. Not saying these guys are bad.

But until the Reds have top hitters, like Berkman who we saw today, they will be prone to inconsistency, "bad luck," etc.

I would switch EE and Phillips in the order as well. But the problem goes much deeper with this team. They need better hitters overall.

Berkman has taken the Astro's where exactly? I would love to have him, but the Astro's have him and they have done what? Sure they went to the WS in 2005, but that was because they had three starters give them over 200 innings of sub 3.00 ERA baseball.

I still don't think you can lump Dunn and Griffey in with Phillips. Completely different situations.

The Reds don't really need better hitters overall, they need a better hitting leadoff guy.
Come on now, Joey Votto, Paul Bako and Jeff Keppinger are all hitting over .300. Edwin is absolutely killing the ball and is the Reds best hitter right now. Griffey and Dunn are what they are. Its early, but do we honestly expect them to keep their same numbers for the entire season? Now I don't expect Bako to continue what he is going, but that still leaves the Reds with 5 good hitters not even bringing Brandon Phillips into the equation.

CaiGuy
04-24-2008, 05:20 PM
Keppinger
Dunn
Griffey
EdE
Votto
Phillips
Patterson
Ross
P

Voila!

dougdirt
04-24-2008, 05:21 PM
Keppinger
Dunn
Griffey
EdE
Votto
Phillips
Patterson
Ross
P

Voila!

Tons better than what we have been running out there.

Kc61
04-24-2008, 05:29 PM
Berkman has taken the Astro's where exactly? I would love to have him, but the Astro's have him and they have done what? Sure they went to the WS in 2005, but that was because they had three starters give them over 200 innings of sub 3.00 ERA baseball.

I still don't think you can lump Dunn and Griffey in with Phillips. Completely different situations.

The Reds don't really need better hitters overall, they need a better hitting leadoff guy.
Come on now, Joey Votto, Paul Bako and Jeff Keppinger are all hitting over .300. Edwin is absolutely killing the ball and is the Reds best hitter right now. Griffey and Dunn are what they are. Its early, but do we honestly expect them to keep their same numbers for the entire season? Now I don't expect Bako to continue what he is going, but that still leaves the Reds with 5 good hitters not even bringing Brandon Phillips into the equation.

We just disagree. In my view, this team's hitting has been built on walks and homers for years now. Low BA hitters. Feast or famine hitters. And, by the way, overwhelmingly from one side of the plate (left).

This is not a fearsome lineup. Almost every team has "good" hitters like, say, EE or Keppinger. If you want to be better, you need some very high caliber bats. Either that or absolutely lights out pitching.

If fans want the same kind of offense, they will get the same results. Occasional fun stretches with shots going out of the park. And months like April 2008.

It's not the style of offense I would advocate.

membengal
04-24-2008, 05:32 PM
I can remember not that long ago that most said that EE needed to be swithed with Crede, Inge or just about anyone else.

In fairness, it wasn't "most" calling for Crede, in fact, no one was calling for Crede. I started a thread suggesting he was the kind of power RH bat who would be nice insurance should EE continue to struggle.

As for Inge, the thought was he could play CF and lead off, from some, I believe...

dougdirt
04-24-2008, 07:15 PM
We just disagree. In my view, this team's hitting has been built on walks and homers for years now. Low BA hitters. Feast or famine hitters. And, by the way, overwhelmingly from one side of the plate (left).
Adam Dunn is the only 'feast or famine' hitter I can recall on this team that has been a majority starter in years. Since 2000 only 13 players have even had 1000 AB for the Reds. Only Dunn, Larue and Juan Castro hit under .265. I mean I guess we have a different idea of 'low batting average' but I think .270 is fine as long as its not an empty average. Of the 13 that qualified, only 3 were lefties. Griffey, Dunn and Sean Casey.



This is not a fearsome lineup. Almost every team has "good" hitters like, say, EE or Keppinger. If you want to be better, you need some very high caliber bats. Either that or absolutely lights out pitching.
The Reds are lacking that premiere hitter, I will give you that. That doesn't mean they can't win though.



If fans want the same kind of offense, they will get the same results. Occasional fun stretches with shots going out of the park. And months like April 2008.
It's not the style of offense I would advocate.

I think fans want wins. They don't care how they get them. If we win every game by 1 run its still a win.

Redhook
04-24-2008, 08:03 PM
Keppinger
Dunn
Bruce
EdE
Griffey
Votto
Phillips
Ross
P

Voila!

Now that's a lineup!

Screwball
04-24-2008, 08:09 PM
OK, I'm coming at you with some numbers here. Whenever a team is struggling, most people look to their worst players as the cause. I tend to focus on the BEST players. If I come to find that the good players are actually getting the job done, then I move on to other things. But in this case, there is no moving on.

I took our 14 losses this year.

I took the numbers of the middle of our order (KGJ, Phillips, and Dunn)

What I found is VERY, VERY ugly and may help explain why we've sturggled so badly to score runs in those losses.

In those 14 losses...

KGJ: 13-49 (.265); 7 RBI; 2 HR; 3 BB; 4 K
BP: 12-53 (.222); 2 RBI; 0 HR; 4 BB; 14 K
Dunn: 7-39 (.179); 3 RBI; 1 HR; 12 BB; 11 K

They have combined...

32-142 (.225) with an average of .86 RBI's per game, .21 HR's per game, 1.36 BB's per game, and 2.07 K's per game.

Just some stuff to chew on. Ouch.

Good stuff, Ed. Here's a few more of their stats during Reds' losses (OBP/SLG/OPS... same line in Wins):

Griffey: .327/.422/.749... .350/.485/.835
Dunn: .417/.343/.760... .421/.464/.885
Phillips: .296/.360/.656... .333/.529/.863

So yeah, Edskin nailed it. For this team to win, we need these guys to produce, even if a guy like Harang or Volquez are shutting down the opposing team.

HokieRed
04-24-2008, 08:15 PM
It's been past time for several years to move the team beyond the Griffey era, in which we have not won. Dan O tried to do it and was blocked; inability to do it cost Wayne his job unfortunately. This team is not a contender; we need to get beyond the Griffey-Dunn era; we need to recognize that Phillips is a seven-slot hitter on a good offense. We need to identify the team's core players: Bruce, EE, Votto, Keppinger, and Phillips. EE will, as I have said previously, be able to hit enough to be a corner outfielder if he can't adequately play third base. The catchers are good enough, could be better but should not be considered a high priority. We need an outfielder; we need to say goodbye to Griffey and Dunn, who have won nothing for this organization; we need to decide on whether EE will be the third basemen or the left fielder. If Dunn and/or Griffey can be dealt, we need to do that. If or if not that's possible, we need to take their salaries next year and get what's needed: an outfielder and a third baseman (assuming Kepp can play SS). It is time, past time, to cut the ties to the past and give up the fantasy that this team is a contender this year.

RedFanAlways1966
04-24-2008, 09:09 PM
Starting pitching (as a whole) = NOT CLOSE TO GOOD.

Mediocre to borderline bad. 4.89 ERA as a staff.

Harang = stud
Volquez = good (but too many pitches and not enough innings)
Cueto = okay (good for age, but okay compared to all MLB staters)
Arroyo = BAD
Belisle = BETWEEN BAD & PATHETIC
Fogg = PATHETIC

8 quality starts in 23 games... 34.8% of the time. That ain't cuttin' it. Averaging 5.68 IP/G. Making the bullpen work 36% of the innings pitched. At that rate the bullpen will be dead by June.

SteelSD
04-24-2008, 11:36 PM
But until the Reds have top hitters, like Berkman who we saw today, they will be prone to inconsistency, "bad luck," etc.

Yes, top hitters never go through something like the following:

April: .253 BA/.404 OBP/.337 SLG (.741 OPS)
May: .237 BA/.378 OBP/.361 SLG (.739 OPS)

Rather than making you look it up, that's your "Mr. Consistent Top Hitter" Lance Berkman over his first 180 AB of the 2007 season.

LoganBuck
04-24-2008, 11:54 PM
Last 7 games

Dunn


G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
7 23 4 6 1 0 1 2 5 6 0 0 .261 .393 .435 .828


Griffey


G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
7 27 3 6 0 0 2 6 1 3 0 0 .222 .250 .444 .694


Phillips


G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
6 25 2 6 2 0 1 1 0 4 0 1 .240 .240 .440 .680

Kc61
04-25-2008, 12:09 AM
Yes, top hitters never go through something like the following:

April: .253 BA/.404 OBP/.337 SLG (.741 OPS)
May: .237 BA/.378 OBP/.361 SLG (.739 OPS)

Rather than making you look it up, that's your "Mr. Consistent Top Hitter" Lance Berkman over his first 180 AB of the 2007 season.

Yes, Berkman slumps. He did have a .740 OPS those two months.

Here's his OPS for the last number of years at Houston --

2001 1.050
2002 .983
2003 .927
2004 1.016
2005 .935
2006 1.041
2007 .896

Reds could use that. And in those years, his BA ranged from a low .278 to a high of .331, with three full seasons at or above .315. Reds could use that in the middle of their order too.

Far East
04-25-2008, 12:16 AM
...They need more consistent, higher BA hitters in the middle of the lineup. Not to say all of KG, AD, and BP need to depart, but serious additions are necessary.
20/20 hindsight would include lineup additions -- by not subtracting -- Cantu and Hamilton. And one of them is right handed.

Jorge Cantu: .325 .381 .532 .913
Josh Hamilton: .310 .373 .552 .924 in '08 (through Wednesday)

Wayne did not have the cajones to offer Griffey or Dunn for Volquez (I would have given them both in order to keep Hamilton).

2009 could have included:

1B - CANTU
2B - PHILLIPS
SS - KEPPINGER
3B - ENCARNACION
LF - VOTTO
CF - BRUCE
RF - HAMILTON

Plus whatever pitching that the trading of Gonzalez, Hatteberg, Dunn (or Griffey), and a reduced payroll could have obtained.

Screwball
04-25-2008, 02:36 AM
Reds could use that in the middle of their order too.

Yes, they sure could. And we go about getting a perrenial 1.000 OPSer how?

Jpup
04-25-2008, 02:51 AM
Yes, they sure could. And we go about getting a perrenial 1.000 OPSer how?

The Braves managed to do it.

AtomicDumpling
04-25-2008, 03:10 AM
The Braves managed to do it.

Teixeira is hitting .247 and has a pedestrian .727 OPS right now. Of course we know he is better than that, but so is Adam Dunn.

The Braves also had to pay out a lot of talent to get Teixeira including their two best prospects (Saltalamacchia and Andrus) and three top pitching prospects. Plus the Braves will be paying Teixeira huge amounts of money starting next season.

We would all love to have another hitter the caliber of Teixeira or Berkman, but those types of guys are hugely expensive and very difficult to obtain unless you are willing to sell the farm like the Braves did.

AtomicDumpling
04-25-2008, 03:14 AM
I guess the summary of this thread is the Reds' stats are much worse in their losses than in their wins. Is that surprising?

I would imagine that theme is common to every team in the league.

Screwball
04-25-2008, 03:25 AM
I guess the summary of this thread is the Reds' stats are much worse in their losses than in their wins. Is that surprising?

I would imagine that theme is common to every team in the league.

I suspect you're right, AD. However, it's glaringly apparent that we need these guys (Griff, BP, Dunn) to get going in order for the Reds to get on the streak I think they can make. I'd almost go so far as to say that, right now, as they go, so goes the Reds.

jojo
04-25-2008, 07:32 AM
Personally, I'm down with Berkman in a Reds uniform. I'm not sure where you play him though.

I'd love to watch him hit every night.

cumberlandreds
04-25-2008, 07:39 AM
Yes, they sure could. And we go about getting a perrenial 1.000 OPSer how?

You have a potential one setting down in Louisville. Time to bring him up to see what he can do.

Very good stats Edskin! You hit the nail on the head of the problem.

PuffyPig
04-25-2008, 08:02 AM
Wayne did not have the cajones to offer Griffey or Dunn for Volquez (I would have given them both in order to keep Hamilton).



You'd rather have 5 years of Hamilton,vs. one year of Griffey or Dunn?

Gee, maybe the Rangers felt the same way.

And then there's that no trade clause with Dunn. And, of course, Grifffey can't be traded without his consent either.

And you claim you would have traded Griffey and Dunn for Volquez at the time.

Sure you would have.

Far East
04-25-2008, 08:09 AM
...And you claim you would have traded Griffey and Dunn for Volquez at the time.

Sure you would have.
To clarify: my priority would have been to keep Hamilton at all costs. I'd rather they had traded Griffey and Dunn for pitching. But you're right, that pitching might not have been Volquez.

SMcGavin
04-25-2008, 08:19 AM
I guess the summary of this thread is the Reds' stats are much worse in their losses than in their wins. Is that surprising?

I would imagine that theme is common to every team in the league.

Agreed. You see this in basketball alot too - a stat like "Team X is only shooting 31% in their losses" - even though it really doesn't tell you anything.

Strikes Out Looking
04-25-2008, 08:23 AM
I guess the summary of this thread is the Reds' stats are much worse in their losses than in their wins. Is that surprising?

I would imagine that theme is common to every team in the league.

Your right, except to point out that the Reds have many more losses than wins at this point--which is the problem. If it was reversed, it would be no big deal, but you are relying on the big 3 for offense, and they've not really provided it when needed.

As to Hamilton: While he is a tremendous talent, he also needed a caretaker--Johnny Narron--which had other consequences to the team. And while he is playing ok for Texas, they aren't exactly on pace to win the AL West.

I think the crux of the issue is this: Since we have Dunn, Griffey and Phillips in 2008, they are going to play. However, mixing them up in the lineup is what Dusty should now be doing. Where to put them?

Dunn: With his keen "batting eye", he should probably be batting 2nd. This will also help in that his at bats are longer than CP, who Dusty loves as his leadoff guy.

Griffey: Even with Dunn batting second, I'd keep him 3rd. Chances are Dunn may see better pitches to hit with Griffey behind him.

Phillips: Not a 4th place hitter--I'd shift him with EE and see what happens.

Finally, isn't it time for someone who must not be named to come up from Louisville--find him time at all 3 of positions--it won't hurt Jr. and Dunn to sit at least once a week until they catch fire.

Edskin
04-25-2008, 08:34 AM
I guess the summary of this thread is the Reds' stats are much worse in their losses than in their wins. Is that surprising?

I would imagine that theme is common to every team in the league.

The question is WHY are we losing? With this analysis you see one of the main reasons. If their numbers were better and we were still losing, then we could focus on other areas, but seeing we've lost 14 games in those 14 losses those three have been putrid, it makes the analysis pretty simple.

Yachtzee
04-25-2008, 08:38 AM
Agreed. You see this in basketball alot too - a stat like "Team X is only shooting 31% in their losses" - even though it really doesn't tell you anything.

Maybe the real problem is that the Reds don't "want it more." ;)

http://mistakesports.blogspot.com/2008/04/who-wants-it-more.html

bucksfan2
04-25-2008, 09:44 AM
The question is WHY are we losing? With this analysis you see one of the main reasons. If their numbers were better and we were still losing, then we could focus on other areas, but seeing we've lost 14 games in those 14 losses those three have been putrid, it makes the analysis pretty simple.

Thats my issue right now. The reds aren't playing good baseball and they aren't winning. They flat out aren't scoring enough runs to beat other teams. Dunn has been just short of awful so far this year. Some can say its unlucky, I call it bad. He hasn't been hitting the ball hard very often and when he is on base he isn't crossing the plate. They are getting shut down by average pitching. This team just can't afford to have Dunn and Jr go sour for a long period of time. Unfortuantly its not even May and the Reds are 6.5 games out of first. It may be a long baseball season in Cincinnati.

SteelSD
04-25-2008, 10:28 AM
Yes, Berkman slumps. He did have a .740 OPS those two months.

Here's his OPS for the last number of years at Houston --

2001 1.050
2002 .983
2003 .927
2004 1.016
2005 .935
2006 1.041
2007 .896

Reds could use that. And in those years, his BA ranged from a low .278 to a high of .331, with three full seasons at or above .315. Reds could use that in the middle of their order too.

Yep. They could definitely use that in the middle of their order. The nice thing about Berkman is that he hits in the three-slot. That's high enough in the order to actually best utilize his plate discipline when slumping.

If you really want to talk about someone who's been stalling the offense this year, how about pointing a finger at the following guy rather than someone who leads the team in OBP even while the hits aren't falling:

.250 BA/.298 OBP/.409 SLG

That's the Reds' cleanup hitter, Brandon Phillips, so far this year. When Dunn slumps, he leads the team in OBP. When Phillips slumps, he's worthless.

But really, this whole conversation is really little more than a distraction while watching a HR-prone pitching staff that's allowing 4.83 Runs per game.

Kc61
04-25-2008, 10:41 AM
Yep. They could definitely use that in the middle of their order. The nice thing about Berkman is that he hits in the three-slot. That's high enough in the order to actually best utilize his plate discipline when slumping.

If you really want to talk about someone who's been stalling the offense this year, how about pointing a finger at the following guy rather than someone who leads the team in OBP even while the hits aren't falling:

.250 BA/.298 OBP/.409 SLG

That's the Reds' cleanup hitter, Brandon Phillips, so far this year. When Dunn slumps, he leads the team in OBP. When Phillips slumps, he's worthless.

But really, this whole conversation is really little more than a distraction while watching a HR-prone pitching staff that's allowing 4.83 Runs per game.

I agree with all of this. While the pen is much improved, the performances of Arroyo and the fifth slot (Fogg and Belisle (in one outing)) are preventing the kind of pitching improvement that should have come with the addition of two great young arms, Cueto and Volquez.

At least in the pitching department they seem to have a plan. If Arroyo continues his downturn, the plan won't be realized without some pain (perhaps a salary dump, time on the DL, whatever). But they have beefed up the pen, added two great young arms, and have one or two near ready below.

Offensively, I don't think the Reds have exhibited much of a plan. Now, with Dunn and Griffey in their walk years, the team will need one. Bruce will likely be part of it along with EE, Votto, and Phillips in a non-cleanup role. Maybe Keppinger. That leaves a few important spots to fill and I wonder how they will do it.

jojo
04-25-2008, 10:43 AM
The question is WHY are we losing?

The Reds are consistently allowing more runs than they are scoring.

It might sound snarky but really it's the place you have to start. They are below average in BOTH RS/G and RA/G.

Spring~Fields
04-25-2008, 10:43 AM
If you really want to talk about someone who's been stalling the offense this year, how about pointing a finger at the following guy rather than someone who leads the team in OBP even while the hits aren't falling:

.250 BA/.298 OBP/.409 SLG

That's the Reds' cleanup hitter, Brandon Phillips, so far this year. When Dunn slumps, he leads the team in OBP. When Phillips slumps, he's worthless.

But really, this whole conversation is really little more than a distraction while watching a HR-prone pitching staff that's allowing 4.83 Runs per game.

You're pointing out something that drives me nuts, Baker insisting that square pegs will eventually fit in round holes. I wonder how much of Bakers plan is effecting each individual batter and then each starting pitcher. No way for me to see it, but, can't help but feel he does as the negative resutls pile up.

coachw513
04-25-2008, 11:21 AM
OK, I'm coming at you with some numbers here. Whenever a team is struggling, most people look to their worst players as the cause. I tend to focus on the BEST players. If I come to find that the good players are actually getting the job done, then I move on to other things. But in this case, there is no moving on.

I took our 14 losses this year.

I took the numbers of the middle of our order (KGJ, Phillips, and Dunn)

What I found is VERY, VERY ugly and may help explain why we've sturggled so badly to score runs in those losses.

In those 14 losses...

KGJ: 13-49 (.265); 7 RBI; 2 HR; 3 BB; 4 K
BP: 12-53 (.222); 2 RBI; 0 HR; 4 BB; 14 K
Dunn: 7-39 (.179); 3 RBI; 1 HR; 12 BB; 11 K

They have combined...

32-142 (.225) with an average of .86 RBI's per game, .21 HR's per game, 1.36 BB's per game, and 2.07 K's per game.

Just some stuff to chew on. Ouch.

Good post...

I'm not happy with Phillips in the 4 hole, but...I'm kindof happy with a manager that has a firm belief of expectation for players and isn't going to yank them around every 2 weeks when they struggle...my point is that I am pleased Baker simply allowed EE to play his way into success, so I'm not going to gripe at him right now for believing Griffey, Phillips and Dunn won't warm as does the weather and produce good middle-of-the lineup numbers this season...

Wheelhouse
04-25-2008, 11:33 AM
OK, I'm coming at you with some numbers here. Whenever a team is struggling, most people look to their worst players as the cause. I tend to focus on the BEST players. If I come to find that the good players are actually getting the job done, then I move on to other things. But in this case, there is no moving on.

I took our 14 losses this year.

I took the numbers of the middle of our order (KGJ, Phillips, and Dunn)

What I found is VERY, VERY ugly and may help explain why we've sturggled so badly to score runs in those losses.

In those 14 losses...

But what about the great clubhouse?
KGJ: 13-49 (.265); 7 RBI; 2 HR; 3 BB; 4 K
BP: 12-53 (.222); 2 RBI; 0 HR; 4 BB; 14 K
Dunn: 7-39 (.179); 3 RBI; 1 HR; 12 BB; 11 K

They have combined...

32-142 (.225) with an average of .86 RBI's per game, .21 HR's per game, 1.36 BB's per game, and 2.07 K's per game.

Just some stuff to chew on. Ouch.
But what about the great clubhouse ?

dougdirt
04-25-2008, 12:56 PM
Thats my issue right now. The reds aren't playing good baseball and they aren't winning. They flat out aren't scoring enough runs to beat other teams. Dunn has been just short of awful so far this year. Some can say its unlucky, I call it bad. He hasn't been hitting the ball hard very often and when he is on base he isn't crossing the plate. They are getting shut down by average pitching. This team just can't afford to have Dunn and Jr go sour for a long period of time. Unfortuantly its not even May and the Reds are 6.5 games out of first. It may be a long baseball season in Cincinnati.
Adam Dunn has a line drive rate of 19%. Thats slightly down from last year. However are you really blaming him for not scoring when he gets on base? How is that his fault in any way?

Kc61
04-25-2008, 01:39 PM
Doug, would you sign Adam Dunn for $60 million for four years? Yes or no.

Do you view Adam Dunn as the cleanup hitter for a championship team? Yes or no.

dougdirt
04-25-2008, 01:40 PM
Doug, would you sign Adam Dunn for $60 million for four years? Yes or no.

Do you view Adam Dunn as the cleanup hitter for a championship team? Yes or no.

The only way I pay Adam Dunn that kind of money is if he moves to first base, and I put that in the contract. If not, later dude.... best of luck to you.

No I don't, but I bet if you put him in the Boston lineup and hit him cleanup they would still win more games than everyone in baseball.

Raisor
04-25-2008, 01:40 PM
Doug, would you sign Adam Dunn for $60 million for four years? Yes or no.

Do you view Adam Dunn as the cleanup hitter for a championship team? Yes or no.



I'm not Doug,

but 1) yes 2) yes

BRM
04-25-2008, 02:01 PM
I'm not Doug,

but 1) yes 2) yes

Of course you would. You're a Stat Wanker.

coachw513
04-25-2008, 02:20 PM
Would you sign Adam Dunn for $60 million for four years? Yes or no.

Do you view Adam Dunn as the cleanup hitter for a championship team? Yes or no.

Yes

Yes

Surround him with Keppinger, Encarnacion, Bruce, then Votto, Phillips, Patterson (or Stubbs??) and Ross...

Oh, and maybe have some freakin' pitching...

Highlifeman21
04-25-2008, 04:44 PM
Personally, I'm down with Berkman in a Reds uniform. I'm not sure where you play him though.

I'd love to watch him hit every night.

1B.

The same position where Adam Dunn belongs.

REDREAD
04-25-2008, 07:12 PM
Berkman has taken the Astro's where exactly? I would love to have him, but the Astro's have him and they have done what? Sure they went to the WS in 2005, but that was because they had three starters give them over 200 innings of sub 3.00 ERA baseball.
.

Not sure this is a fair statement. No team goes to the World Series without good pitching.

Berkman is a great hitter. Just like it's not Dunn's fault when no one drives him in, we can't say the Berkman isn't doing his job.

jojo
04-25-2008, 08:49 PM
1B.

The same position where Adam Dunn belongs.

Where do you play Votto then?

jojo
04-25-2008, 08:57 PM
Berkman has taken the Astro's where exactly?

Jr took Seattle where exactly? Jr has taken the Reds where exactly?

AROD has taken anybody where exactly?

Chase Utley has taken the Phillies where?

Barry Bonds has taken who, where?

Well you get the idea....

Highlifeman21
04-25-2008, 10:51 PM
Where do you play Votto then?

1B for another team.

Redhook
04-26-2008, 07:17 AM
Paying Dunn $15 million/year to be miscast batting in the 5th spot would be ridiculous. Apparantly the managers don't get it. Dunn should be batting 3rd. No ifs, ands, buts about it. However, he bats 5th and wastes his best resource: getting on base. I don't see this changing; therefore, he should be traded because he isn't worth $15 million batting in the 5th spot.

Also, while he profiles to be a 1B, I still don't trust his defensive skills to man an important position like first. I think he'd be below average there defensively and would be more of a liability at first than he is in left field.

jojo
04-26-2008, 07:38 AM
Paying Dunn $15 million/year to be miscast batting in the 5th spot would be ridiculous. Apparantly the managers don't get it. Dunn should be batting 3rd. No ifs, ands, buts about it. However, he bats 5th and wastes his best resource: getting on base. I don't see this changing; therefore, he should be traded because he isn't worth $15 million batting in the 5th spot.

Also, while he profiles to be a 1B, I still don't trust his defensive skills to man an important position like first. I think he'd be below average there defensively and would be more of a liability at first than he is in left field.

I think he should bat 2nd and the pitcher should bat 8th.

GAC
04-26-2008, 07:53 AM
I personally think Dunn is now history as a Red.

This is not a knock on Jocketty, but I think he will, with Bob C's blessing, look to try and trade Dunn at the deadline.

Always Red
04-26-2008, 08:17 AM
I personally think Dunn is now history as a Red.

This is not a knock on Jocketty, but I think he will, with Bob C's blessing, look to try and trade Dunn at the deadline.

GAC, I agree that this will happen.

Because, in the last 5 years, the Reds have had:

2 owners
3 GM's
4 managers
...and the same results, year after year.

They've changed everything else, time to try changing some players around. And I'd look for more than just Dunner to be gone.

Like many here (and I'm sure Jocketty and Castellini, too), I am tired of watching players make dumb decisions night after day after night. Not just a few guys either, but it's like a collective group consciousness funk right now. Just really poor fundamental baseball, which this year have shown up on the basepaths most glaringly.

I think some really big changes are coming down the pike. I can easily see this team next year without Junior or Dunn.

Another view of the Kriv firing would be that Castellini knew he was going to have to rebuild if this year tanked early, and when he saw that it was, he didn't trust Wayne to be in charge of the process?

mth123
04-26-2008, 08:17 AM
Paying Dunn $15 million/year to be miscast batting in the 5th spot would be ridiculous. Apparantly the managers don't get it. Dunn should be batting 3rd. No ifs, ands, buts about it. However, he bats 5th and wastes his best resource: getting on base. I don't see this changing; therefore, he should be traded because he isn't worth $15 million batting in the 5th spot.

Also, while he profiles to be a 1B, I still don't trust his defensive skills to man an important position like first. I think he'd be below average there defensively and would be more of a liability at first than he is in left field.

I'd bat him 2nd or 3rd and you are absolutely right about 1B. Keep Dunn off of that spot or risk turning every IF throw into something more like an EdE special. Dunn would cost the team so much more defensively at 1B than he does in LF it isn't even funny. The best way to fix this defense is to replace the guy in RF. His two step range on balls in front of him doesn't look bad on TV, but it creates a lot of hits that appear routine on shallow and medium depth fly balls that should be outs. Couple that with him playing a little deeper than most so he can get back on balls hit over his head and you have a huge area of the field that is conceded to the opposing offense. IMO, Griffey would need to OPS 1.000 + to offset the hole he creates in the defense and the cumulative damage that does to the pitching staff over the season.

Marc D
04-26-2008, 09:34 AM
Jr took Seattle where exactly?

AROD has taken anybody where exactly?

Chase Utley has taken the Phillies where?

Barry Bonds has taken who, where?


Their teams to the playoffs?

jojo
04-26-2008, 09:40 AM
Their teams to the playoffs?

Then in the context of the original comment, Lance has one-upped Jr, AROD and Utley but I think you and I are probably on the same page.

Kc61
04-26-2008, 09:41 AM
GAC, I agree that this will happen.

Because, in the last 5 years, the Reds have had:

2 owners
3 GM's
4 managers
...and the same results, year after year.

They've changed everything else, time to try changing some players around. And I'd look for more than just Dunner to be gone.

Like many here (and I'm sure Jocketty and Castellini, too), I am tired of watching players make dumb decisions night after day after night. Not just a few guys either, but it's like a collective group consciousness funk right now. Just really poor fundamental baseball, which this year have shown up on the basepaths most glaringly.

I think some really big changes are coming down the pike. I can easily see this team next year without Junior or Dunn.

Another view of the Kriv firing would be that Castellini knew he was going to have to rebuild if this year tanked early, and when he saw that it was, he didn't trust Wayne to be in charge of the process?

Good post. I think Bob C trusts Jocketty to make the big upcoming decisions.

What gets me about Reds fans is that after losing year after year they are so resistant to changing the main core of the team. It's as if Griffey and Dunn are such top players at this stage that they can't be replaced.

Finally, after all these years, I think the Reds are about to change the position players in a meaningful way. Let's hope Bob's confidence in Walt results in improvement because this has become unwatchable right now.

VR
04-26-2008, 11:03 AM
But really, this whole conversation is really little more than a distraction while watching a HR-prone pitching staff that's allowing 4.83 Runs per game.


Team ERA sucks.

BUT, the Reds have missed their opportunities on wayyyyyy too many quality pitched games. In 8 of their games...they lost while giving up 5 runs or less.

5 runs....three times
4 runs....twice
3 runs....twice
1 run...once

The Reds have to win a much higher percentage of games when they get good pitching...which, outside of 5-6 games, they have gotten.

Edskin
04-26-2008, 11:16 AM
Team ERA sucks.

BUT, the Reds have missed their opportunities on wayyyyyy too many quality pitched games. In 8 of their games...they lost while giving up 5 runs or less.

5 runs....three times
4 runs....twice
3 runs....twice
1 run...once

The Reds have to win a much higher percentage of games when they get good pitching...which, outside of 5-6 games, they have gotten.

Thank you. That was my next statistical analysis :)

The team ERA has been inflated by a few terrible outings, while the offense has been inflated by a few good outings. Overall, we've gotten the pitching to win games this year. The offense hasn't done the job-- and the main reason the offense has done the job is because the heart of our order has been awful.

Kc61
04-26-2008, 12:55 PM
Simple questions --

Reds have had Griffey/Dunn together since 2001. Seven losing seasons. Eighth under way.

1. Why should the Reds keep the same core offensive players after seven years of losing?

2. Don't other teams -- even winning teams -- change their offense after seven years? In all sports?

3. Why do Reds fans seem so hung up on keeping the same main players year after year after year, despite losing?

4. If you were Jocketty, wouldn't you make fundamental changes to the offense?

Far East
04-26-2008, 02:08 PM
Simple questions --

Reds have had Griffey/Dunn together since 2001...
1. Why should the Reds keep the same core offensive players after seven years ...?
Particularly when Griffey/Dunn are expensive, defensive/base running liabilities.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2008, 02:22 PM
I'm still not opposed to replacing EE with Crede. And this is several weeks later.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2008, 02:26 PM
Simple questions --

Reds have had Griffey/Dunn together since 2001. Seven losing seasons. Eighth under way.

1. Why should the Reds keep the same core offensive players after seven years of losing?

2. Don't other teams -- even winning teams -- change their offense after seven years? In all sports?

3. Why do Reds fans seem so hung up on keeping the same main players year after year after year, despite losing?

4. If you were Jocketty, wouldn't you make fundamental changes to the offense?

When you clear all the brush aside, these questions do need answering. The devil pretends to hide out in the details, but sometimes he gets so fat, it's that big picture you wanna keep your eye on.

OnBaseMachine
04-26-2008, 02:27 PM
I'm still not opposed to replacing EE with Crede. And this is several weeks later.

Joe Crede - 30 years old. 2008 salary: 5.1 million. Hitting .293/.341/.587.

Edwin Encarnacion - 25 years old. 2008 salary: 450 K. Hitting .275/.376/.550.

No thanks. Give me Edwin.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2008, 02:29 PM
Joe Crede - 30 years old. 2008 salary: 5.1 million. Hitting .293/.341/.587.

Edwin Encarnacion - 25 years old. 2008 salary: 450 K. Hitting .275/.376/.550.

No thanks. Give me Edwin.

Contracts will likely come close to evening out next season, though.

I don't want to sign EdE to a long term deal at all. At. all.

I don't look at Crede as a long term answer, but rather a guy to serve as a band aid until someone worth keeping at third comes along.

Spring~Fields
04-26-2008, 03:43 PM
Simple questions --

Reds have had Griffey/Dunn together since 2001. Seven losing seasons. Eighth under way.

1. Why should the Reds keep the same core offensive players after seven years of losing?

2. Don't other teams -- even winning teams -- change their offense after seven years? In all sports?

3. Why do Reds fans seem so hung up on keeping the same main players year after year after year, despite losing?

4. If you were Jocketty, wouldn't you make fundamental changes to the offense?


I would think that Jocketty would be more realistic and objective making changes to the offense, moving out or upgrading various players, moving left handed bats that can’t hit left handed pitching and right handed bats that can’t seem to hit anything when needed.

I won’t even mention those that can’t field their positions well enough you all know who they are anyway, those hurt the offense too by letting the other team have extra outs and additional scoring opportunities.

Patterson
Valetin
Hatteberg
Dunn
Griffey
Ross
Freel
Hopper
Hairston
Encarcion

Non offensive players who hurt the offense by making it hard to keep a lead, no team can score 8-12 runs every night.

Coffey
Fogg
Arroyo
Belisle

I think that Jocketty can package some of these and get something of value or future value in return.

Straight up he would have to be a wizard to get something of real value for any of them individually because of the various situations or levels of talent.

If they can’t get real value in return, then why are they still on this team? Jocketty has somewhat of a pitching core with the Reds now, I am hoping that he will build around them, while accumulating some upgrades by packaging and unloading the continued failed past. He might even have to do something like “the man” in Oakland and trade a Harang for a pile of future quality.

Spring~Fields
04-26-2008, 03:48 PM
When you clear all the brush aside, these questions do need answering. The devil pretends to hide out in the details, but sometimes he gets so fat, it's that big picture you wanna keep your eye on.

Yes, you don't build for a division win against weak competition. You build for a dynasty, long term victories. Most of the Reds players are not "small samples" waiting to be found out, they have long histories and have been exposed.

Raisor
04-26-2008, 04:28 PM
4. If you were Jocketty, wouldn't you make fundamental changes to the offense?


Depends on what you mean by fundamental changes.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2008, 04:31 PM
Depends on what you mean by fundamental changes.

I'd guess fundamental means not just bench add-ons.

Raisor
04-26-2008, 04:37 PM
I'd guess fundamental means not just bench add-ons.

We always hear that the Reds need to upgrade the defense.

Now we hear that the Reds need to upgrade the offense.

I agree with both these statements, only problem is if you try to do both at the same time it usually costs a lot of money. The other way to do it is start over and rebuild from the bottom up. That takes time, something it doesn't look like Cast wants to do.

Glad I'm not the gm.

Kc61
04-26-2008, 04:41 PM
Depends on what you mean by fundamental changes.


Better hitters at the key offensive slots. Leadoff. Number 3. Number 4.

New leadoff hitter. Jay Bruce as the number 3. New number 4.

No more reliance on Griffey and Dunn as main offensive threats.

SteelSD
04-26-2008, 05:49 PM
Simple questions --

Reds have had Griffey/Dunn together since 2001. Seven losing seasons. Eighth under way.

1. Why should the Reds keep the same core offensive players after seven years of losing?

Keep your eyes on the real prize...

2001: 850 Runs Allowed
2002: 774 Runs Allowed
2003: 886 Runs Allowed
2004: 907 Runs Allowed
2005: 889 Runs Allowed
2006: 801 Runs Allowed
2007: 853 Runs Allowed[/QUOTE]

Spring~Fields
04-26-2008, 05:57 PM
We always hear that the Reds need to upgrade the defense.

Now we hear that the Reds need to upgrade the offense.

I agree with both these statements, only problem is if you try to do both at the same time it usually costs a lot of money. The other way to do it is start over and rebuild from the bottom up. That takes time, something it doesn't look like Cast wants to do.
Glad I'm not the gm.

You make a good case for defending Krivsky and the wall of doom that he was up against with Castellini. Either way it is going to cost that ownership group a lot of money and time.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2008, 06:57 PM
I don't think Dunn or Junior are going to continue to OPS well over .100 points below their career averages. That will help. I think Votto will get better, too.

I'm starting to believe it's still a matter of pitching (starting and bull) and defense.

Highlifeman21
04-26-2008, 07:15 PM
Last time I checked, allowing more runs than you score is usually a bad idea. Doesn't lead to a lot of wins.


We've averaged something like 850 runs allowed between 2001 and 2007, and only averaging 750 runs scored during the same time period.

When you average 850 given up while only averaging 750 scored, you're not a good ballclub. Between 2001 and 2007, we've averaged 73 wins and 89 losses. Awesome.

Saying the offense is the problem this year is laughable. The pitching's been the problem since 2001, so now all of a sudden the offense is the problem? Something doesn't add up in that equation.

pedro
04-26-2008, 07:21 PM
Last time I checked, allowing more runs than you score is usually a bad idea. Doesn't lead to a lot of wins.


We've averaged something like 850 runs allowed between 2001 and 2007, and only averaging 750 runs scored during the same time period.

When you average 850 given up while only averaging 750 scored, you're not a good ballclub. Between 2001 and 2007, we've averaged 73 wins and 89 losses. Awesome.

Saying the offense is the problem this year is laughable. The pitching's been the problem since 2001, so now all of a sudden the offense is the problem? Something doesn't add up in that equation.

The Reds are on pace to give up 769 runs and score 648.

Right now the offense is the problem.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2008, 07:27 PM
The Reds are on pace to give up 769 runs and score 648.

Right now the offense is the problem.

Right now the whole thing's screwed up, but there's reason to believe that important parts of the offense will come around.

pedro
04-26-2008, 07:31 PM
Right now the whole thing's screwed up, but there's reason to believe that important parts of the offense will come around.

I think so too. But it's clear this team isn't going to score 850 runs as it's currently constructed.

Highlifeman21
04-26-2008, 07:34 PM
The Reds are on pace to give up 769 runs and score 648.

Right now the offense is the problem.

The last time the Reds offense scored less than 700 runs was 2003 when the Reds plated 694. Before that, it was 1997 when the Reds plated 651.

If the Reds only give up 769, that puts them on par with what they gave up between 1996 through 2000, when they ranged between 711 and 773, and also 2002 when they only gave up 774. Between 2001 and 2007 (removing 2002), the Reds gave up at least 801 runs, and as many as 907.

The Reds will start scoring more runs. I'm concerned they'll start letting in more runs, as well.

VR
04-26-2008, 10:03 PM
The last time the Reds offense scored less than 700 runs was 2003 when the Reds plated 694. Before that, it was 1997 when the Reds plated 651.

If the Reds only give up 769, that puts them on par with what they gave up between 1996 through 2000, when they ranged between 711 and 773, and also 2002 when they only gave up 774. Between 2001 and 2007 (removing 2002), the Reds gave up at least 801 runs, and as many as 907.

The Reds will start scoring more runs. I'm concerned they'll start letting in more runs, as well.


They've already had TWO four run innings....and SIX three run innings!
That.....is scary.

Chip R
04-26-2008, 11:17 PM
"Losing ball teams focus their frustration on their best players in exactly the same way that a man who gets fired from his job and loses his house to the bank will then divorce his wife who is the only thing in his life that's worth hanging on to."

Bill James

HokieRed
04-26-2008, 11:32 PM
What an offense we could have had with Hamilton, Votto, Bruce, and EE, backed by Keppinger and Phillips. Could have been if the organization hadn't been focused on continually assuming everything had to be worked around the immovable Dunn and Griffey. I, for one, will be glad when their era is past.

SMcGavin
04-27-2008, 12:08 AM
What an offense we could have had with Hamilton, Votto, Bruce, and EE, backed by Keppinger and Phillips.

Um, unless for some reason you think Hamilton is a huge offensive upgrade over Dunn, we are still going to have that same offense.

HokieRed
04-27-2008, 12:17 AM
The evidence from this year so far points to Hamilton's being exactly that: a huge upgrade over Dunn, and, by the way, over Griffey.

reds44
04-27-2008, 12:21 AM
Um, unless for some reason you think Hamilton is a huge offensive upgrade over Dunn, we are still going to have that same offense.
He is.

SMcGavin
04-27-2008, 12:23 AM
The evidence from this year so far points to Hamilton's being exactly that: a huge upgrade over Dunn, and, by the way, over Griffey.

Griffey's got nothing to do with the six guys named in your post. And yeah the 70 ABs from this year might tell you Dunn stinks, but I'm going to go ahead and trust the 3000+ from the rest of his career.

Aronchis
04-27-2008, 12:23 AM
I can't see anything overly different about Dunn this year except he is off to a bad start. He still has bat speed, he still has power. Things just are not jiving right now. We shall see come ASB if Hamilton is a "big" upgrade over Dunn.

SMcGavin
04-27-2008, 12:25 AM
He is.

A huge offensive upgrade? Based on what exactly?

KronoRed
04-27-2008, 12:30 AM
A huge offensive upgrade? Based on what exactly?

Apparently 20 or so games is all we need to make an informed decision.

jojo
04-27-2008, 07:29 AM
A huge offensive upgrade? Based on what exactly?

Huge upgrade offensively next month? Who cares. Better player even if their offense balances out in the short term? Well yes, Josh is an upgrade. He can catch and throw too.

Upgrade over the next five years? Ya.

Screwball
04-27-2008, 07:47 AM
While Josh Hamilton would certainly help this offense, it's amazing how quickly some of you dismiss how important Edinson Volquez is to this team. Without him, I think we'd be in a much larger predicament than we're currently in.

RedlegJake
04-27-2008, 09:57 AM
While Josh Hamilton would certainly help this offense, it's amazing how quickly some of you dismiss how important Edinson Volquez is to this team. Without him, I think we'd be in a much larger predicament than we're currently in.

Amen.

I'd trade Josh for Edinson every day. Amazing how easy it is to forget how wonderful this team was they had a great offense. Why with that wonderful offense the Reds managed to even win 80 games once.

Pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching. The Reds have taken huge steps but they aren't an elite pitching team yet. The fact is that no matter what owner Bob want to toss hissy fits about, it IS going to take time to right this ship.

The pitching needs time to mature and get the right parts promoted and productive. One magic stroke isn't going to do it. The best thing Walt can do for the Reds is to convince Bob that he IS going to have to be patient for a short time.

SMcGavin
04-27-2008, 11:24 AM
Huge upgrade offensively next month? Who cares. Better player even if their offense balances out in the short term? Well yes, Josh is an upgrade. He can catch and throw too.

Upgrade over the next five years? Ya.

Sure, if you factor in defense and contract, I'd rather have Hamilton. Of course so would the Rangers and it's really unlikely we could have gotten Volquez for Dunn. The post I responded to seemed to imply that our offense is no good, but it would be great if only we had Hamilton instead of Dunn. That's a silly stance to take; if you think Hamilton, EE, Votto, Bruce, Keppinger and Phillips would make a great offense, you should also realize that Dunn, EE, Votto, Bruce, Keppinger and Phillips is going to be just as good.

As for the next five years, I'm betting their offense stays pretty similar. Dunn is only 18 months older than Hamilton, with zero years of heavy drug use on his body. I don't see any reason to think he would fall off faster than Josh would.

By the way, Hamilton's career OPS vs LHP is .681 (just to compare Dunn is at .839). How much would people be complaining about that if he was still a Red?

VR
04-27-2008, 11:31 AM
By the way, Hamilton's career OPS vs LHP is .681 (just to compare Dunn is at .839). How much would people be complaining about that if he was still a Red?


Josh hit lefties poorly last year after 5 years away from baseball.
It is a huge mistake to think that Josh was at his peak in all aspects of his game is his first year in the bigs....let alone first year playing in 6.

That said, he is OPSing .956 vs. lefties this year. Not too many Reds fans would be concerned.

Hamilton certainly has a higher ceiling than Dunn at this point. If Dunn wouldn't have brought Volquez, hopefully that tells us something about Dunn?

SMcGavin
04-27-2008, 11:37 AM
If Dunn wouldn't have brought Volquez, hopefully that tells us something about Dunn?

Yes, it tells us that Dunn makes $13M and has one year left on his contract, while Hamilton makes peanuts and is under control for five more years.

jojo
04-27-2008, 11:54 AM
As for the next five years, I'm betting their offense stays pretty similar.

I'm not and since Dunn's entire value is derived from his bat, it's a central point.

SMcGavin
04-27-2008, 01:08 PM
I'm not and since Dunn's entire value is derived from his bat, it's a central point.

I agree it's a central point. Are you expecting a decline from Dunn or an increase from Hamilton, and why?

jojo
04-27-2008, 01:51 PM
I agree it's a central point. Are you expecting a decline from Dunn or an increase from Hamilton, and why?

My take on Dunn has been articulated in great detail in the archives but the sound bite is that he's older than his age.

Hamilton is just a better hitter.