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View Full Version : Baserunning and Lineup



Rounding Third
04-26-2008, 12:19 AM
Here is the Reds lineup by batting spot with OBP/OPS



1: .324/.772
2: .311/.709
3: .304/.706
4: .306/.699
5: .417/.849
6: .362/.805
7: .341/.950
8: .389/.839


I don't think I need to explain anything when looking at that. The highest OBP ranks as such



5: .417
8: .389
6: .362
7: .341
1: .324
2: .311
4: .306
3: .304


Obviously Paul Bako and David Ross won't keep up their lines and are fine in the #8 spot. However, you really just have to wonder what is going on down in the dugout. The manager doesn't realize an 0 - 22 streak. Bats the centerfielder leadoff for every single game of the year. And the trio of centerfielders on the team (Hairston, Patterson, Freel) have a combined -9 on the plus/minus system of baserunning analysis.

The baserunning analysis is pretty simple and uses categories such as:

1st to 3rd
2nd to Home
1st to Home
Double Plays
Stolen Bases

If you successfully do one of these you get a +1, and if you are out you get a -1. So that means our centerfield trio have had been out on bases 9 more times that they have been safe when taking extra bases. It maybe a -10, as I don't know how quickly it is updated and don't know if it counted against Freel for tonights game.

Aggressive? Or foolish?

UK Reds Fan
04-26-2008, 12:34 AM
I just have never understood all the gnashing of teeth over the years with Miley, Narron, Boone, etc.. Now we have Dusty and he has done as little as any...with probably more to work with. Hate to say it, but we wasted millions on Dusty...Mackanin was fine and would have worked for way less.

1. Patterson leading off is ridiculous. History speaks to it and he's performed to that thus far.
2. Phillips clean up is silly...but we'll go that route most of year.
3. Votto batting that far down in order at this point is silly. Obvious he has to be into meat of order.

Rounding Third
04-26-2008, 12:44 AM
I just have never understood all the gnashing of teeth over the years with Miley, Narron, Boone, etc.. Now we have Dusty and he has done as little as any...with probably more to work with. Hate to say it, but we wasted millions on Dusty...Mackanin was fine and would have worked for way less.

1. Patterson leading off is ridiculous. History speaks to it and he's performed to that thus far.
2. Phillips clean up is silly...but we'll go that route most of year.
3. Votto batting that far down in order at this point is silly. Obvious he has to be into meat of order.

Agreed on all points and I must add that we need to move Griffey down.

jmac
04-26-2008, 09:34 AM
While alot of your points are all valid, my two cents is I over-rated this offense greatly. I dont know if it matters too much right now where some bat cause I fear the same or current results.
So many poeple have said this offense will get going but I really am beginning to wonder.
Personally I would just like to see them put Bruce in and let him/Votto/EE start the transition from a power laden team to a gap-shot type team.
Yes i have got very disgusted with this current team and that is very unusual for me. I am always a "go get'em tomorrow" type but right now, they just aren't very entertaing at all.

Slyder
04-26-2008, 09:59 AM
While alot of your points are all valid, my two cents is I over-rated this offense greatly. I dont know if it matters too much right now where some bat cause I fear the same or current results.
So many poeple have said this offense will get going but I really am beginning to wonder.
Personally I would just like to see them put Bruce in and let him/Votto/EE start the transition from a power laden team to a gap-shot type team.
Yes i have got very disgusted with this current team and that is very unusual for me. I am always a "go get'em tomorrow" type but right now, they just aren't very entertaing at all.

I think we ought to send each player a Tom Emanski Instructional video and a Lineup Construction for Dummies and Definition of Insanity to Baker and see if they get the picture.

tommycash
04-26-2008, 10:20 AM
Speaking of baserunning, can someone tell me how in world does Freel get thrown out at second last night. Either try to outrun the catcher or stay put.

captainmorgan07
04-26-2008, 10:23 AM
I was thinkin the same thing that's a pretty dumb move to make in the first inning. I like his hustle but he's just gotta be smarter than that.

IowaRed
04-26-2008, 10:26 AM
thanks for putting that info. together, I think a lot of us knew that the lineup would be horribly constructed and illogical before the season but to see the numbers makes it absurd. No the lineup isn't the main and only problem but as I've said about 35 times-it's something a manager can control. Seriously, putting the appropriate players in the appropriate positions isn't that tough. The CF doesn't HAVE to bat first, Griffey doesn't HAVE to bat 3rd, you don't HAVE to have the 2 fastest guys in the lineup batting 1st and 2nd, especially when they don't get on base in front of the sluggers

jmac
04-26-2008, 10:41 AM
The CF doesn't HAVE to bat first, Griffey doesn't HAVE to bat 3rd

This couldnt have worked in his Seattle days anyway. :)

James B.
04-26-2008, 11:02 AM
What amazes me is that the reds are making average pitchers look like Cy Young. They can't seem to put anything together. When one player has a good night, then the rest of the team can't hit. I refuse to believe that there offense will play like this the whole season. I just hope the pitching holds up when this team starts hitting.

Orodle
04-26-2008, 11:23 AM
Just the other day I was thinking to myself how the bottom of the lineup seemed to be outperforming the top....and really this seems like this happens often to the Reds over the past few seasons.

What my lineup would be:

1. SS-Keppinger (lacks leadoff speed, but hits)
2. 1B-Votto (has better speed than most 1Bs but still not the ideal baserunner for the 2 spot. However, hitting and getting on base is 10x more important than speed and Votto should definately see some great pitches to drive batting #2)
3.LF-Dunn (I know he strikesout a TON but he does two things very well that are pretty much the whole point when you get to the plate. He gets on base and slugs. I know people will also point out two lefties back to back in the order but really at this point I think huge changes need to be made.
4 2B-Phillips (He did well batting #4 last season, keep him there)
5. RF-Griffey (Yes, he'll go on runs but he lacks the consistency of his prime. I love Jr but really I'd rather see Bruce up here)
6. 3B-Encarnacion (if he keeps hitting like he has recently I would swap he and Phillips easily if Phillips runs into some problems)
7. C-Bako (ride him as long as he keeps hitting and use Ross against lefties)
8. PITCHERS SLOT (Yep going LaRussa/Pitt style here. I've been a fan of this for awhile and with the lack of speed at the top of my lineup I think this would be a just situation for this strategy)
9. Cf-Hopper (I wanted him in CF full time from the start. I don't mind having Patterson on the roster because he does have good speed and some pop but would rather not see him patrolling CF everyday)

On paper this team looks like it should be pretty good (especially in the NL Central). We finally have some good young arms in the rotation but need Arroyo to get back to performing atleast average or have someone else step up (Bailey, Belisle, Fogg). I think I will catch some heat for this lineup but really something has to be done. The way Reds managers have structure the lineup over the past few seasons babbles me. Mostly built on player's reputations and traditions of where they think speed should be placed. Like I said above I was a huge Jr. fan but at this point I think he should be moved, really I would be happy with an above average reliever in return so Bruce could take over. I'm not saying its Jr.'s fault but really ever since he's been in Cincy our offense has lacked consistency on a day to day basis.

Rounding Third
04-26-2008, 11:44 AM
Just the other day I was thinking to myself how the bottom of the lineup seemed to be outperforming the top....and really this seems like this happens often to the Reds over the past few seasons.

What my lineup would be:

1. SS-Keppinger (lacks leadoff speed, but hits)
2. 1B-Votto (has better speed than most 1Bs but still not the ideal baserunner for the 2 spot. However, hitting and getting on base is 10x more important than speed and Votto should definately see some great pitches to drive batting #2)
3.LF-Dunn (I know he strikesout a TON but he does two things very well that are pretty much the whole point when you get to the plate. He gets on base and slugs. I know people will also point out two lefties back to back in the order but really at this point I think huge changes need to be made.
4 2B-Phillips (He did well batting #4 last season, keep him there)
5. RF-Griffey (Yes, he'll go on runs but he lacks the consistency of his prime. I love Jr but really I'd rather see Bruce up here)
6. 3B-Encarnacion (if he keeps hitting like he has recently I would swap he and Phillips easily if Phillips runs into some problems)
7. C-Bako (ride him as long as he keeps hitting and use Ross against lefties)
8. PITCHERS SLOT (Yep going LaRussa/Pitt style here. I've been a fan of this for awhile and with the lack of speed at the top of my lineup I think this would be a just situation for this strategy)
9. Cf-Hopper (I wanted him in CF full time from the start. I don't mind having Patterson on the roster because he does have good speed and some pop but would rather not see him patrolling CF everyday)

On paper this team looks like it should be pretty good (especially in the NL Central). We finally have some good young arms in the rotation but need Arroyo to get back to performing atleast average or have someone else step up (Bailey, Belisle, Fogg). I think I will catch some heat for this lineup but really something has to be done. The way Reds managers have structure the lineup over the past few seasons babbles me. Mostly built on player's reputations and traditions of where they think speed should be placed. Like I said above I was a huge Jr. fan but at this point I think he should be moved, really I would be happy with an above average reliever in return so Bruce could take over. I'm not saying its Jr.'s fault but really ever since he's been in Cincy our offense has lacked consistency on a day to day basis.

That is my exact same lineup, except switch EdE and Phillips. Or just bat the hot bat #4, which is EdE right now.

757690
04-26-2008, 12:51 PM
Every stat is pretty much meaningless this early in the season. Just to give an example of how volatile stats are in April, Keppinger just had two bad games, and his OPB dropped 30 points. Joey Votto just had two good games and his OBP went up 47 points. Any player on that list can have a good week or a bad week and their stats will totally change.

This team is in a collective slump. James B. summed it up the best, they make every pitcher look like CY Young. Lineup construction is very over-rated, especially since a team uses 50 to 100 different lineups a year. This line-up will evolve and change, already we have seen Phillips in the 2 slot and EE and Dunn as cleanup. In a previous thread, JinAz compared many different lineups after they were run through a computer projection and the one that Dusty uses most often was one of he best, but more importantly, there was only a difference of around 20 runs a season between most of them.

Still, I am not sure that this offense will turn it around, but that is because I don't think the Reds have the right personal. I see Jocketty looking at this team and blowing up the offense. I think you will see some players that you didn't think would be traded, gone by the All-Star break. The Reds can not compete with this offense, no matter what order they are hit in.

jmac
04-26-2008, 12:56 PM
The Reds can not compete with this offense, no matter what order they are hit in.
This basically sums up the way I am starting to think.

CWRed
04-26-2008, 02:14 PM
The Reds haven't had a manager in years who seemed to understand lineup construction and such. MacKanin seemed to start to get it for a while last year but...I know GM's and management is not supposed to tell a manager what to do but if I own this team. I tell the GM fix it with the manager or get the hell out. Or I tell the manager myself. Do you think Billy Beane or Theo Epstien would put up with it? No. Of course, they aren't stupid enough to hire Dusty Baker.

Someone should put this post in Dusty's locker. But he's probably use the paper to wrap up his toothpicks.