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RedlegJake
04-26-2008, 04:50 AM
opponents have scored 6 or more 6 times. The Reds are 0-6. Score 6 runs aginst the Reds and you win by default.

18 times Reds opponents have been held to 5 or fewer runs. They are only 9 and 9 in those 18 games. 5 times opponents have scored exactly 5 runs. The Reds are 1-4 in those games. That's pathetic. When the opponent scores 5 runs or more the Reds have lost 10 times in 11 games.

When the opponent scores only 4 runs the Reds are still just 1 of 3 in the win column.

In fact in 13 of 24 games or 54% of the time, the Reds staff allows 4 runs or fewer and still end up just 8-5 in those games.

10 times in 24 games the Reds have allowed 3 or less runs. All 10 of those starts have been made by Harang, Cueto or Volquez. 16 of 18 four run (or less) games have been started by the same three.

The pitching has allowed 4.83 runs a game. Harang-Cueto-Volquez combined have an era of 2.91. The bullpen era is 3.30. So where does the 4.83 come from? 42 ER in 40 IP for Arroyo-Fogg-Belisle. Take their starts out and the Reds staff is allowing about 3.25 runs per game. That's pretty good isn't it? That's really, really good. And in those 15 games the Reds are still just 7-8.

The Reds have scored 37 runs in their 4 best offensive games. 57 in the 20 remaining. 2.85 runs per game when you remove the outliers. In fact, they have scored more than 5 runs just 5 times. They have 5 runs just 6 times and 4 runs just 10 times. Barely a third of their games have they even scored 4 runs!

Mythbuster: The Reds suck against LH starters. 3-4. Righties? 6-11. This offense stinks no matter what hand the pitcher throws with.

Scoring 5+ runs
Chi 13
SL 12
Hou 12
Mil 11
Pitts 8
Cin 6

Scoring 3 or less- 2 or less:
Cin 14-6
Hou 10-7
Pitts 10-6
Chi 10-4
Mil 9-5
SL 9-4


ER/R margin
Mil 2
Hou 4
SL 5
Chi 9
Pitt 11
Cin 13


Even with starters 4 & 5 being completely terrible the Reds staff is getting it done. The defense hasn't helped the team. Hey, that just leaves the offense. And it is bad.

Just some numbers to play with.

Spring~Fields
04-26-2008, 06:14 AM
That is a really good and interesting post.

RFS62
04-26-2008, 09:02 AM
Nice post.

GAC
04-26-2008, 09:05 AM
Good post.

I loved this though.... :lol:


This offense stinks no matter what hand the pitcher throws with.

mth123
04-26-2008, 09:37 AM
Time for Bruce. Its the only move left to make to try and spark this offense.

oneupper
04-26-2008, 09:56 AM
Real good work, RLJ.

I especiallly like the comparison with our division rivals.

Kinda like the old Groucho joke:

--"How's your wife?"
--"Compared to What?" :)

Raisor
04-26-2008, 10:53 AM
Time for Bruce. Its the only move left to make to try and spark this offense.

I'm not sure. He'd have to play CF at this point by default. Reds' CFers have combined for a line of .268 .333 .485 .818. I just don't know how much better then that Bruce is likely to produce.

pahster
04-26-2008, 11:28 AM
I'm not sure. He'd have to play CF at this point by default. Reds' CFers have combined for a line of .268 .333 .485 .818. I just don't know how much better then that Bruce is likely to produce.

Yep. For now, at least, the Reds are getting pretty good production out of their CFs. Now if Jr. could be moved...

OnBaseMachine
04-26-2008, 11:33 AM
Good post Jake.

This is the worst Reds offense I can remember in my lifetime.

mth123
04-26-2008, 11:47 AM
I'm not sure. He'd have to play CF at this point by default. Reds' CFers have combined for a line of .268 .333 .485 .818. I just don't know how much better then that Bruce is likely to produce.

I'd put him in RF and tell Griffey its time to become Gates Brown.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Gates-Brown.shtml

Then ship Hatte off for whatever, with Griffey now manning the LHPH and Power bat off the bench role. He could probably be used against either type of pitching (i.e RH or LH). Meanwhile the defense makes a drastic improvement and reduces a number of cheap hits and wear and tear on the arms.

But... since that won't happen, I put him in CF. The CFers have done okay, but none are capable of picking this offense up and carrying it until others get hot. Bruce has that potential. I realize that is a lot to ask of a guy who hasn't even made his major league debut, but its really the only play that is left for this team barring a trade which probably won't net the help needed at this point in the season.

Bruce in CF with the hope the he lifts the team and restores some offense until the others get going. Its really the only hail mary pass left in the playbook. For the season as a whole to have a chance at salvation, the guys already on the Reds need to hit. We've seen the famine, if the feast comes, the team is capable of winnng 8 out of 10 and getting back to .500, but something needs to be done to help tread water until then.