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View Full Version : Giants send Zito to pen - MERGED



WMR
04-28-2008, 12:45 PM
Do the Giants continue to let Barry Zito get his brains beaten every time he takes the mound, or do they take what certainly will be an embarrassing public-relations hit and remove their $126 million pitcher from the rotation and try to get him right? "We're going to get together here," Bochy said. "We've got to do something different. There's no doubt about that. We can't keep doing what we're doing. We need to get together and get a game plan on what we think is best." -- SF Chronicle




OUCH.

Spring~Fields
04-28-2008, 12:48 PM
A big ouch.

I confess, I am ignorant about Zito.

What happened to him that he is not the pitcher that he once was? Is he hurt or what?

WMR
04-28-2008, 12:50 PM
He's lost several miles off of his fastball. I think his fastball is around 86 mph right now whereas he used to operate around 91 or so. He was tinkering with his delivery in ST. Wouldn't surprise me if he was hurt somehow, as well.

OnBaseMachine
04-28-2008, 12:54 PM
Along with the loss in velocity, he can no longer command his breaking ball on a consistent basis. He's just now in year two of a seven year contract. Unless he figures something out soon, this could end up as the worst contract in baseball history.

RedsManRick
04-28-2008, 01:11 PM
Nobody could have foreseen that Zito was on a sharp downward trajectory. Just ask any real baseball man; this course of events is a complete surprise.

paulrichjr
04-28-2008, 01:15 PM
Nobody could have foreseen that Zito was on a sharp downward trajectory. Just ask any real baseball man; this course of events is a complete surprise.

I am assuming that you are being very very sarcastic.

This contract was insane from the moment it was even talked about let alone signed.

Rojo
04-28-2008, 02:04 PM
Not even a soft-tossing lefty's a sure thing anymore. What's the world coming to?

BuckeyeRedleg
04-28-2008, 02:08 PM
Eric Milton to the 5th power.

edabbs44
04-28-2008, 02:08 PM
Nobody could have foreseen that Zito was on a sharp downward trajectory. Just ask any real baseball man; this course of events is a complete surprise.

I believe that the same data was used as the data which tells us that Belisle is unlucky and that he will be extremely solid this year.

LoganBuck
04-28-2008, 02:42 PM
So what does the worst contract list look like right now

1. Barry Zito
2. Mike Hampton
3. Denny Naegle
4. Matt Clement
4a. Carl Pavano
5. Chan Ho Park
6. Darren Driefort
7. Eric Milton?

edabbs44
04-28-2008, 02:46 PM
So what does the worst contract list look like right now

1. Barry Zito
2. Mike Hampton
3. Denny Naegle
4. Matt Clement
4a. Carl Pavano
5. Chan Ho Park
6. Darren Driefort
7. Eric Milton?

Not sure if Milton even compares.

Sea Ray
04-28-2008, 03:08 PM
So what does the worst contract list look like right now

1. Barry Zito
2. Mike Hampton
3. Denny Naegle
4. Matt Clement
4a. Carl Pavano
5. Chan Ho Park
6. Darren Driefort
7. Eric Milton?


Kevin Brown's gotta make that list somewhere, doesn't he?

Shows how risky long term pitching contracts are. Let's hope Arroyo isn't on that list in a couple years.

mbgrayson
04-28-2008, 03:23 PM
What about Matt Morris's 2007 contract with the Pirates for 2008 and 2009? They have DFA'd him, and still owe him $10 million for this year, plus a $1 million 2009 buyout.

jojo
04-28-2008, 03:28 PM
He's lost several miles off of his fastball. I think his fastball is around 86 mph right now whereas he used to operate around 91 or so. He was tinkering with his delivery in ST. Wouldn't surprise me if he was hurt somehow, as well.

He's averaging 83 mph on his fast ball this season. He's a very expensive junk baller.

His contract is tragic beyond comprehension. BTW, Sabean won the bidding war against Bill Bavasi though reportedly not by much (Bavasi also lost out on Schmidt that off season too).

I'm trying very hard not to become prejudiced against baldness.

bucksfan2
04-28-2008, 03:30 PM
Do you consider a contract a bad contract because of an injury? Or do you consider a bad contract one that a player doesn't produce to his contract? Lets not forget Albert Belle in the bad contract discussion. I remember watching Zito in his last start for the A's. He was shelled in the playoffs and then leaves Oakland to go across the bay to San Fran. Pitchers just don't lose velocity overnight. If it is over a few years that is one thing but over the course of an offseason is another. Other than an arm injury, which I would hope the Giants checked out prior to thie signing, the only thing I can think of that would lead to his troubles is the lack of any PED's.

How long until Atlanta of St. Louis takes a gamble on Zito. SF would have to pay a huge portion of the contract but I can see those clubs turning him around.

RedsManRick
04-28-2008, 03:39 PM
I don't think you can treat all injuries equally when it comes to evaluating a bad contract. It's one thing to give an aging pitcher a massive contract and then see him lose significant time to injury. It's another to sign a player in the prime of his career and see him lose that time. While no injury is "predicted", it would be foolish to assume that a player will remain perfectly healthy over some long stretch of time.

Give any pitcher a 7 year contract and you're likely to regret it, regardless of who the pitcher is or how much he's being paid.

medford
04-28-2008, 03:45 PM
I and many more informed minds in baseball could tell that Barry was losing it his last 2 seasons in Oakland, but I doubt many thought he would fall this far off the table, this fast. I thought Zito would be a kyle lohse type starter in San Fran when this contract was signed, brillant some nights, very hitable other nights, but overall not increadibly terrible. He's been increadibly terrible and seems to be getting worse. He's making Bronson look like an Ace at the moment.

I think the next move is a trip to the DL. I think they'll "find" some tightness in his shoulder then spend a month or so hoping he can find some of his old stuff, before going on an extended rehab assignment hoping that he can piece something together by seasons end so they can unload him to an Atlanta type team that takes a small chunk of his remaining salary hoping they can turn things around next season.

jojo
04-28-2008, 03:54 PM
Do you consider a contract a bad contract because of an injury? Or do you consider a bad contract one that a player doesn't produce to his contract? Lets not forget Albert Belle in the bad contract discussion. I remember watching Zito in his last start for the A's. He was shelled in the playoffs and then leaves Oakland to go across the bay to San Fran. Pitchers just don't lose velocity overnight. If it is over a few years that is one thing but over the course of an offseason is another. Other than an arm injury, which I would hope the Giants checked out prior to thie signing, the only thing I can think of that would lead to his troubles is the lack of any PED's.

How long until Atlanta of St. Louis takes a gamble on Zito. SF would have to pay a huge portion of the contract but I can see those clubs turning him around.

I consider a bad contract to be one that completely fails to connect commitment with risk or in other words one which completely misses on the reasonable expectation of performance or in some large way over-compensates production relative to the market (i.e. I judge it by the decision making at the time and not really via hindsight). Milton had no chance to work out from day one-bad contract. Jr's contract was a pretty good decision made tragic by a reasonable risk not working out (every player has a risk for injury).

Concerning Zito, certainly nobody had to read tea leaves as RMR sarcastically pointed out above. Just as a philosophy, building a rotation through free agency is a bad idea but Zito's case in particular looked like an obvious trainwreck in waiting.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1212685&postcount=13


This is a sincere question: by what metrics is he a worthy of being one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball? Guys often get paid for what they have done in the past but really, its important to value them for what they'll do over the course of their contract. Clearly Zito of the last three years isn't the same guy as the Zito of his first three seasons. He stills eats innings and his ERAs look good but his peripherals are getting pretty scary-especially for someone reportedly demanding 6-7 years at $15M per. Basically, his xFIPS have been steadily climbing, his K/G has been trending downward and his BB/G has been trending up. The latter two are death knells for a guy with flyball tendencies (in any park). Right now xFIP is generally excepted as the best predictor of future performance for a pitcher. Zito's last year was an icky 5.46 (mlb average for starters was: 4.60). Importantly, Zito hasn't been above average relative to the league for the last three seasons using xFIP as an indicator.

So, IMHO, its a scary proposition to commit so much for so long to a guy whose peripherals seem to scream will be in a decline phase from day one of the contract. Intangibles be damned when talking about that kind of money.

I'd much rather use a stop gap like Lohse and hope Homer can be ready by August. I mean even if Zito gives you two solid years, what will you do for the final 4-5??? There is the potential that you'll have an even more expensive facsimile of Milton that can't be traded away. Truthfully, I'm not convinced that a good version of Zito in '07 puts the Reds into the playoffs.

Frankly, given the insane market for the mediocre crop of FA arms this year, I would've spent what money I had earmarked for FAs by loading up on offense and defense.

Anyways that's the world according to me....

Rojo
04-28-2008, 05:04 PM
So what does the worst contract list look like right now

1. Barry Zito
2. Mike Hampton
3. Denny Naegle
4. Matt Clement
4a. Carl Pavano
5. Chan Ho Park
6. Darren Driefort
7. Eric Milton?

Four lefty pitchers. The classic mistake of confusing rarity for value.

membengal
04-28-2008, 05:28 PM
The Giants' Zito problem is a vast ocean compared to the realtively minor lake that was the Reds' Milton problem.

Bad contract then. Bad contract now. Forever a bad contract.

Tom Servo
04-28-2008, 05:54 PM
This Zito thing kinda boggles my mind. As medford said, he clearly wasn't as good with the A's in his last year or so, but was still an above average pitcher who I figured would benefit from going to the NL.

It's been an unmitigated disaster and I think the Giants made a lesser but still incredibly stupid move in signing Aaron Rowand to a big deal this offseason. Sure he'll be a solid player, but the teams is going absolutely nowhere and Rowand isn't exactly the centerpiece that most teams envy.

Sea Ray
04-28-2008, 06:06 PM
I think the next move is a trip to the DL. I think they'll "find" some tightness in his shoulder then spend a month or so hoping he can find some of his old stuff, before going on an extended rehab assignment hoping that he can piece something together by seasons end so they can unload him to an Atlanta type team that takes a small chunk of his remaining salary hoping they can turn things around next season.

I see it a little differently. Most long term contracts for pitchers are insured. My bet is there's enormous pressure on the Giants to find an injury so that they can recoup some $$

RedsManRick
04-28-2008, 06:09 PM
I see it a little differently. Most long term contracts for pitchers are insured. My bet is there's enormous pressure on the Giants to find an injury so that they can recoup some $$

I've read different re: insurance. I think that may have been true 10 years ago, but much less so now. Don't mean to call you out, but I wonder if anybody has any evidence on the rate of insurance.

Matt700wlw
04-28-2008, 09:49 PM
Zito has been demoted to the bullpen

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3372794

Patrick Bateman
04-29-2008, 12:44 AM
I believe that the same data was used as the data which tells us that Belisle is unlucky and that he will be extremely solid this year.

Okay, so 126M mistake versus potentially a 1M miss. I'll take my chances.

HumnHilghtFreel
04-29-2008, 03:40 AM
Holy crap is this contract ever turning out to be horrible.


SAN FRANCISCO (AP)—Barry Zito was demoted to the bullpen Monday by the San Francisco Giants, who hope the former ace can correct his problems by working in relief.

Zito, who only 16 months ago signed a $126 million, seven-year contract with the Giants to lead their rotation, was informed of the move in a meeting with manager Bruce Bochy.

“I’m certainly not happy with it, by any means,” Zito said. “But this is the bed that I’ve made. I have to lay in it for the time being and I have to overcome. I trust management and I trust what their decisions are.”

The left-hander has lost his first six starts this season and has a 7.53 ERA that jumped considerably after Zito was tagged for eight earned runs in a 10-1 loss Sunday to Cincinnati.

The 2002 AL Cy Young Award winner with Oakland, Zito lasted just three innings against the Reds and was booed frequently by the crowd at AT&T Park during his shortest outing of the year.

Zito’s next turn in the Giants’ rotation would have been Saturday in Philadelphia. Instead, San Francisco plans on using Pat Misch against the Phillies. Misch was recalled from Triple-A Fresno when right-handed starter Kevin Correia was placed on the 15-day disabled list.

Because Zito started Sunday, Bochy indicated he wouldn’t be available to pitch in relief until the Giants play the Phillies beginning Friday.

“We’ll watch and see how things go,” Bochy said. “Right now we’re just going to leave it at, that he’s going to be helping us out of the bullpen.

Kind of makes Coco's contract look like a steal:)

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-29-2008, 03:49 AM
Makes Eric Milton look like a bargain :cool: