Bray up, Coffey down

[Danny Serafini]

Per team press notes. Shocking news, I know. No other moves today.

[Joseph]

Good move. Todd needs to get some work in, and fix whatever is ailing him.

[Falls City Beer]

I'd start Bray tonight. :) Well--at any rate, they're going to need the bullpen arms tonight. No question about that. Warm 'em early and often.

Wait, I assume Bray'll be with the team tonight??

[princeton]

is Coffey just unlucky, RMR?

if so, maybe the bad luck goes away now.

[redsfan30]

At some point, the team is just going to have to cut bait with Todd Coffey. He needs a fresh start somewhere else.

He's been given chance after chance after chance and has proven he just can't do it (consistantly enough).

[Matt700wlw]

Good move. Todd needs to get some work in, and fix whatever is ailing him.

...so they can trade him

[WVRedsFan]

I'm sure Coffey will go down to AAA and blow them away. It always happens. Then they'll bring him back up for the same old performance.

A disclaimer...AAA performance is no indication of how he'll perform in the bigs.

I think the more correct direction is to deal him, but who knows?

I wish Bray the best. Maybe this time he'll do much better.

[RedsManRick]

It's certainly looking like it's more than bad luck, priceton. I have no problem admitting that I'm wrong.

However, I'd love to see some more analysis on what exactly is going on with him. Obviously, the simple answer is that he's leaving hittable pitches out over the heart of the plate. But I'm not aware of any other pitcher with an ability to allow HR on 20%+ of the flyballs he allows. Please forgive me for not concluding that Coffey is an outlier and wanting further evidence. Given any sample of 65 IP, I'm going to assume random variance is playing a significant role and Coffey's ongoing struggles won't change my mind about that.

What it will do is make me look more critically at HR rate. I need to do some homework and get a better understanding of how quickly it stabilizes as a predictor.

Coffey misses bats and gets lots of ground balls. Both of those are very good things. Unfortunately, he also makes a lot of mistakes in the heart of the hitters' happy zone. AAA hitters are much less adept at punishing him for that than are major leaguers. There's pretty much nothing a pitcher can do to offset giving up 2 HR/9.

[Will M]

At some point, the team is just going to have to cut bait with Todd Coffey. He needs a fresh start somewhere else.

He's been given chance after chance after chance and has proven he just can't do it (consistantly enough).

100% AGREE. At the beginning of the year I was willing to give Coffey another chance as a Red. Now I 100% believe if he will ever succeed in the bigs it won't be as a Red. Time to move him somewhere else for both his sake and the sake of the Reds ( and their fans ). It is possible he could still have success in the bigs, but I just don't believe it will ever be as a Red.

[bucksfan2]

Coffey misses bats and gets lots of ground balls. Both of those are very good things. Unfortunately, he also makes a lot of mistakes in the heart of the hitters' happy zone. AAA hitters are much less adept at punishing him for that than are major leaguers. There's pretty much nothing a pitcher can do to offset giving up 2 HR/9.

Coffey can and does throw it by people but his mistakes get killed. I wonder if he is tipping his pitches? I also wonder if his weight makes a repeatable delivery hard to sustain? I may be wrong but it also seems like he throws at one constant speed all the time. He doesn't seem to have the ability to change speeds with any success.

[OnBaseMachine]

Good move. Bray has been dominating AAA hitters. In 8.2 innings, he allowed only one run on four hits with three walks and 14 strikeouts. I think he's ready to put it together and have a breakout season.

[lollipopcurve]

However, I'd love to see some more analysis on what exactly is going on with him.

He's got 1 pitch. It's been obvious for years.

[WVRedsFan]

At what point do you quit trying to fix him? That's the question. Bucksfan2 has pointed out he makes mistakes--right over the heart of the plate. That's mental, so how do you change that? I don't think you can.

[RedsManRick]

He's got 1 pitch. It's been obvious for years.

So does Mariano Rivera. So does Trevor Hoffman. So does Tim Wakefield. That, in and of itself, is a wholly insufficient explanation.

Coffey was very solid in 2005 and 2006, when he wasn't allowing HR at a historic rate. Did he forget a pitch or has something else changed?

[REDREAD]

At some point, the team is just going to have to cut bait with Todd Coffey. He needs a fresh start somewhere else.



I would've liked the Reds to just stick with Coffey all year this season.
Just place him in games when the Reds don't have the lead, as they did with Burton last season until he got it together.

Even if he is not closer material, he's still a potentially valuable middle reliever.
He's had his ups and downs since his good rookie year, but I don't see what he's going to accomplish at AAA. He needs to learn how to consistently pitch up here. And the Reds need to find out that this year, so they can plan for next year.

Personally, I would've much rather seen them just cut Fogg and keep Coffey on the roster. I initially supported Fogg, but that was clearly a mistake. Coffey might be part of the future. Fogg definitely is not, so why give Fogg the ML playing time?

[lollipopcurve]

So does Mariano Rivera. So does Trevor Hoffman. So does Tim Wakefield. That, in and of itself, is a wholly insufficient explanation.

Wakefield, yes. But we know the knuckleball in and of itself is unpredictable, so it's a poor comparison. The others, no. Rivera has fastball and cutter. Hoffman has fastball and changeup. Coffey has fastball and nothing to speak of. Hitters sit on it. You don't like the explanation, fine -- but I guarantee you it's why he gets hammered.


Coffey was very solid in 2005 and 2006, when he wasn't allowing HR at a historic rate. Did he forget a pitch or has something else changed?

Look at his hit rate early in his career. He was still fooling no one, really. I think he's lost a tick or two on the fastball and now everybody is well aware that he does not throw a secondary pitch for a strike.

[princeton]

So does Mariano Rivera. So does Trevor Hoffman. So does Tim Wakefield. That, in and of itself, is a wholly insufficient explanation.

Coffey was very solid in 2005 and 2006, when he wasn't allowing HR at a historic rate. Did he forget a pitch or has something else changed?

he threw strikes and was dreadful in 2005. In 2006 they couldn't wait to face him, but he figured out how to get hitters to chase. After that, they made him come into the zone, and punished him worse than before.

[reds44]

No brainer. A week or so too late, but I won't complain.

[Joseph]

No brainer. A week or so too late, but I won't complain.


You won't complain?

Are you sure you're on the right board? This is Redszone after all, complaining is what we do!

[Sea Ray]

I've put my 2 cents in on this as I'm sure everyone has by now, but now I'm wondering why all the effort and fuss over this guy? He's a RH middle reliever. He's not a high draft pick where we've got a lot of money tied up. He doesn't have extraordinary stuff. Simply put he's not worth the effort. Let him move onto another team and wish him well. It's not working out here. As far as I'm concerned he's Bubba Nelson, Joe Valentine, Jim Brower...Why keep sending him back and forth to figure it out? Why all the discussion here?

[princeton]

A week or so too late.


a year

[Marty and Joe]

Tough for Coffey, but I'm glad to see Bray up here. I'm hoping in fairly short order he'll be slotted as the LH setup man and will form quite the back end of the bullpen with Burton and Cordero.

Hopefully, he stays healthy for a change.

[Highlifeman21]

So we're now carrying 3 LHP in the pen?

[KronoRed]

Let the winning commence.

[PuffyPig]

So we're now carrying 3 LHP in the pen?


It matters less they are LF because Bray certainly isn't a LOOGY, and Mercker historically hasn't been.

[PuffyPig]

Tough for Coffey, but I'm glad to see Bray up here. I'm hoping in fairly short order he'll be slotted as the LH setup man and will form quite the back end of the bullpen with Burton and Cordero.

Hopefully, he stays healthy for a change.

Our bullpen has been a little bit forgotten this year, but they are doing pretty good.

Still no blown saves for anyone, even by the set-up guys, which is where the majority of the blown saves occued last year.

[Highlifeman21]

It matters less they are LF because Bray certainly isn't a LOOGY, and Mercker historically hasn't been.

Kinda makes me wish we had Bray, Coutlangus, and another LHP for the pen, since at least Coutlangus was closer to a LOOGY.

I'm not sold on Affeldt, although I'm glad he's not starting, and I remain very skeptical about Mercker and his ability to positively contribute as well as remain healthy.

[PuffyPig]

Kinda makes me wish we had Bray, Coutlangus, and another LHP for the pen, since at least Coutlangus was closer to a LOOGY.

I'm not sold on Affeldt, although I'm glad he's not starting, and I remain very skeptical about Mercker and his ability to positively contribute as well as remain healthy.


I agree Cout was a pretty good LOOGY, he just was useless against RH hitters,

Affeldt can be a great LOOGY if used that way. Real hard for LH hitters to hit, strikes out lots, just very wild.

Mercker is OK as long as he isn't used too much.

[Highlifeman21]

I agree Cout was a pretty good LOOGY, he just was useless against RH hitters,

Affeldt can be a great LOOGY if used that way. Real hard for LH hitters to hit, strikes out lots, just very wild.

Mercker is OK as long as he isn't used too much.

I don't remember any instances this year where Affeldt's been used specifically as a LOOGY.

I'm hoping The Dusty learns what and who he has in the pen, and how to correctly use each guy.

That was something Miley and Narron definitely lacked.

[Rojo]

nm

[pahster]

I'm not sold on Affeldt, although I'm glad he's not starting, and I remain very skeptical about Mercker and his ability to positively contribute as well as remain healthy.

I'm not sold on Affeldt either, but he's been nails so far. I'm hoping out hope (probably of the false variety) that he can keep it up and stave off regression until next year when he'll likely no longer be with the Reds.

[lollipopcurve]

I'm not sold on Affeldt either, but he's been nails so far. I'm hoping out hope (probably of the false variety) that he can keep it up and stave off regression until next year when he'll likely no longer be with the Reds.

If you watch the games, you see that he's got a very good fastball (93-94 on some FSN guns) and a nasty curve. In other words, plus stuff for a bullpen lefthander. So long as he throws strikes, he's going to be a real asset.

[membengal]

Yup. If he is consistently in the strike zone, he can be a plus reliever. His general bent to control problems does make be a bit itchy about using him when it is close, but last night was very well done on his part.

[princeton]

I'd love to see some more analysis on what exactly is going on with him. Obviously, the simple answer is that he's leaving hittable pitches out over the heart of the plate. But I'm not aware of any other pitcher with an ability to allow HR on 20%+ of the flyballs he allows. Please forgive me for not concluding that Coffey is an outlier and wanting further evidence. Given any sample of 65 IP, I'm going to assume random variance is playing a significant role and Coffey's ongoing struggles won't change my mind about that.

What it will do is make me look more critically at HR rate. I need to do some homework and get a better understanding of how quickly it stabilizes as a predictor.


I have this mental image of you, managing the Reds (because it's easy), eyes glued to your dugout computer screen as Todd gives up back-to-back-to-back jacks for the third time in a week. "I just need to do a little more homework," you try to say, as well as "he will regress to the mean!" but alas the team has already strangled you with your power cord.

it's too bad. your perfect lineup did get you a small lead in a couple of those games.