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vaticanplum
04-30-2008, 10:16 PM
Some interesting views from impartial observers. I think they're dead-on on a lot of things, particularly in who deserves credit for the current bright spots on the team. (my friend's e-mail pops up as the first question...big Baseball America fan)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/media/podcasts/ (the 4-25 podcast)

Love the line "...but the Cardinals DO more with their tradition." Also love the comparison between pitchers in the Reds' farm system circa 2004 and the drummer from Spinal Tap :lol:

cincinnati chili
05-01-2008, 12:41 AM
"The Reds are in the best shape they've been in in a decade." Basically this is true... maybe 8 years, rather than a decade, but basically true.

M2
05-01-2008, 10:34 AM
Interesting point made by John Manuel. The Reds' media reach has dwindled, perhaps, because WLW is "lunatic fringe radio."

J.J. Cooper - There was a time where being a Reds pitching prospect was being like the drummer in Spinal Tap.

Unassisted
05-01-2008, 11:51 AM
Candor galore here...

"Wayne Krivsky didn't do anything where he deserved to be fired."

"Walt Jocketty becoming available in St. Louis is what got him fired."

Rationale for The Trade... "If we get Kearns away from Adam Dunn, maybe Dunn does better?"

Hamilton for Volquez "was a win-win."

Will M
05-01-2008, 12:02 PM
Hamilton for Volquez "was a win-win."

The thing that bothered me at the time and still does is this: could we have gotten Volquez for Dunn?

dougdirt
05-01-2008, 12:04 PM
The thing that bothered me at the time and still does is this: could we have gotten Volquez for Dunn?

Very doubtful. 1 year of a slugger making big bucks, or 5 potential years of a better all around hitter with good defense to boot for chump change.

Falls City Beer
05-01-2008, 12:06 PM
Every time Cueto takes the mound, I think a little less of the "great" development team assembled under Krivsky.

Honestly, how many times are we going to hear how good a shape this team's farm system is? It's this overarching narrative that connects every era of the last 10 years: the MLB product is dogcrap, but boy their farm is making great strides.

flyer85
05-01-2008, 12:10 PM
outside of Bruce there likely isn't a major league quality starting OF in the system ... and the Reds need to replace 3 of them next season.

BCubb2003
05-01-2008, 12:33 PM
Every time Cueto takes the mound, I think a little less of the "great" development team assembled under Krivsky.

Honestly, how many times are we going to hear how good a shape this team's farm system is? It's this overarching narrative that connects every era of the last 10 years: the MLB product is dogcrap, but boy their farm is making great strides.

Yes, I kind of agree. I definitely understand the thinking behind putting the pieces together carefully and step by step by rebuilding the farm system into something that produces long-lasting success -- that's the ideal -- but the real goal is to win at the major-league level, not to be able to point to some almost intangible farm system quality.

Don Drysdale told a funny story about when his playing days were done and he was an adviser for the organization, sitting in a room with some of the scouts and execs going over the players' development, and he had to come out and say something to the effect of, "Man, we're going to win 120 games in a couple years ... everyone of these players is going to be an all-star according to you guys."

dougdirt
05-01-2008, 12:38 PM
outside of Bruce there likely isn't a major league quality starting OF in the system ... and the Reds need to replace 3 of them next season.

Disagree big time. Danny Dorn has a chance to be ready next year when he comes off the DL (cut his leg in a game in the 3rd week of April, needed 19 stitches). While I am not saying these guys can be the type you are talking about, Shaun Cumberland and Sean Henry are making AA look awful easy right now. Down the line still, Drew Stubbs is surely showing he has the makings to be a quality CF. He won't start in Cincinnati out of the gate next year, but he certainly looks to be good at this point.

flyer85
05-01-2008, 12:39 PM
Don Drysdale told a funny story about when his playing days were done and he was an adviser for the organization, sitting in a room with some of the scouts and execs going over the players' development, and he had to come out and say something to the effect of, "Man, we're going to win 120 games in a couple years ... everyone of these players is going to be an all-star according to you guys."which is why organizational depth is so important ... because you never really know. The Reds are decidedly lacking in depth.

flyer85
05-01-2008, 12:42 PM
Disagree big time. Danny Dorn has a chance to be ready next yearand also has a chance to amount to nothing. At this point if you are going to count on him for something you better well have a Plan B ready to go at a moments notice(same goes for Stubbs).

These guys may turn out to be something useful but it is every bit as likely that they don't so you better have options and right now the Reds have none.

Wasn't long ago that guy named Corey Patterson was the next best thing since sliced bread(far better prospect than either Dorn or Stubbs) and we know how that turned out.

KronoRed
05-01-2008, 12:44 PM
The thing that bothered me at the time and still does is this: could we have gotten Volquez for Dunn?

No chance whatsoever.

IslandRed
05-01-2008, 12:55 PM
which is why organizational depth is so important ... because you never really know. The Reds are decidedly lacking in depth.

I'm not sure I agree with that, although it depends on what you mean by "depth." If we're talking star quality, then yeah. As the current batch of grade-A prospects hits the beach, there's not another wave of A prospects behind them. But it's not like our competitors have multiple waves of A prospects coming either, and our depth in B/C prospects is very good, according to John Sickels among others. Those guys probably won't be stars but they're the useful players who keep a team from having to pay over-market for average production. And they serve as trading chips, which will make Jocketty happy, since trades were his specialty in St. Louis.

OnBaseMachine
05-01-2008, 12:55 PM
Todd Frazier is another guy who could eventually be a left fielder if Edwin pans out at third base. He's got the bat to play just about anywhere.

BCubb2003
05-01-2008, 12:57 PM
Danny Dorn has a chance to be ready next year when he comes off the DL

He's got a good baseball background. His father, Roger, was good for awhile with Cleveland.

OnBaseMachine
05-01-2008, 12:59 PM
He's got a good baseball background. His father, Roger, was good for awhile with Cleveland.

:bowrofl:

Scrap Irony
05-01-2008, 01:07 PM
Nah, Dorn was just playoff lucky. he had one good at-bat, really, and his glove was questionable at best.

Ditto Brandon Waring, as to possible OF's in two or three years.

The depth of possible OF's is a strength. The depth of probable All-Stars is mighty thin. (Of course, it's that way with every farm system except the Rays, who seemingly have a ready-made All-Star at each position.)

flyer85
05-01-2008, 01:12 PM
Waring has a 6/32 k/bb ratio in 86 ABs in Low A ball. He's hit a some HRs but that ratio his Ks/AB are a huge red flag.

REDREAD
05-01-2008, 01:12 PM
Every time Cueto takes the mound, I think a little less of the "great" development team assembled under Krivsky.

Honestly, how many times are we going to hear how good a shape this team's farm system is? It's this overarching narrative that connects every era of the last 10 years: the MLB product is dogcrap, but boy their farm is making great strides.


It's standard practice by every struggling franchise. There's always the calvary down in the minors that will save the day. Got to give the fans hope.

The reality is that the best farm system in baseball can not alone produce enough talent to contend year in and year out. Trades need to be made. Money needs to be well spent. Even the Braves big run featured FA acquisions in their bullpen, and FAs like Maddux, Bream, Pendleton, etc.. as
well as nice trades (Neagle from Pitts, Smoltz, etc) . Sure the farm helped a lot, but it's only part of the puzzle.

REDREAD
05-01-2008, 01:16 PM
The thing that bothered me at the time and still does is this: could we have gotten Volquez for Dunn?

I don't know. The story is that the Rangers approached Wayne for Hamilton. He was their big target. Wayne insisted on Volquez in return.

Would Dunn want to go to Texas and give them a sweet extension? If so, that makes Dunn a lot more attractive than a rent a player.. however, I feel Hamilton was still much more attractive to the Rangers than Dunn was.

M2
05-01-2008, 01:35 PM
It should be no great secret that the Reds aren't going to be saved by the farm alone. Anyone who thinks otherwise is practicing the art of self deception.

The Reds' best all-around position player (Phillips) came via trade. The Reds' ace pitcher (Harang) came via trade. The Reds' best young pitcher, at the moment, (Volquez) came via trade. Large amounts of external talent needs to be imported.

Yet Votto looks like a player, Encarnacion (originally signed by Texas, but raised by the Reds) looks to be taking a step forward and Bruce is just about the surest thing you'll ever see in AAA. The Reds have 50% of a good starting eight for 2009 and beyond, workable starting pitching (I don't care about some growing pains for the young guys or a slow start by some of the vets, this starting pitching - provided it stays healthy - is going to put to shame any Reds rotation of the 21st century by the time the season ends), a bona fide closer, and an improved (though still flawed) setup staff.

The farm won't save the Reds, but, for the first time in a long time, it's providing some legitimate help. Personally, I find demands of immediate gratification as useless as empty promises that the future is assured. What I see is a franchise that's got some things to work with. Whether Jocketty and Baker can piece it together remains to be seen, but this club some talent on hand.

OnBaseMachine
05-01-2008, 01:56 PM
It should be no great secret that the Reds aren't going to be saved by the farm alone. Anyone who thinks otherwise is practicing the art of self deception.

The Reds' best all-around position player (Phillips) came via trade. The Reds' ace pitcher (Harang) came via trade. The Reds' best young pitcher, at the moment, (Volquez) came via trade. Large amounts of external talent needs to be imported.

Yet Votto looks like a player, Encarnacion (originally signed by Texas, but raised by the Reds) looks to be taking a step forward and Bruce is just about the surest thing you'll ever see in AAA. The Reds have 50% of a good starting eight for 2009 and beyond, workable starting pitching (I don't care about some growing pains for the young guys or a slow start by some of the vets, this starting pitching - provided it stays healthy - is going to put to shame any Reds rotation of the 21st century by the time the season ends), a bona fide closer, and an improved (though still flawed) setup staff.

The farm won't save the Reds, but, for the first time in a long time, it's providing some legitimate help. Personally, I find demands of immediate gratification as useless as empty promises that the future is assured. What I see is a franchise that's got some things to work with. Whether Jocketty and Baker can piece it together remains to be seen, but this club some talent on hand.

You are one smart dude. Great, great post.

redsmetz
05-01-2008, 02:05 PM
Even the BRM had guys we traded for - a third of the starting line-up - Morgan, Geronimo and Foster. On the staff: Jack Billingham, Fred Norman, Pat Darcy, Clay Kirby, Pedro Bourbon and Clay Carroll. It's always a mixture.

Same with the 1990 club: Imports Mariano Duncan, Billy Hatcher, Todd Benzinger and Hal Morris. Pitchers Jose Rijo, Danny Jackson, Rich Mahler and two thirds of the Nasty Boys Norm Charlton and Randy Myers.

Reds1
05-01-2008, 03:28 PM
Didn't like what they said about Reds being only a ohio kentucky team! Reds are fairly popular in Indiana. I know many Hoosiers for the Reds. It's probably the 3rd team behind Cardinals and cubs, but it is the 3rd team.

fearofpopvol1
05-01-2008, 03:39 PM
Didn't like what they said about Reds being only a ohio kentucky team! Reds are fairly popular in Indiana. I know many Hoosiers for the Reds. It's probably the 3rd team behind Cardinals and cubs, but it is the 3rd team.

I actually think Reds fans trump Cardinals fans in Indiana, but definitely play in the shadow of Cubs fans.

Unassisted
05-01-2008, 03:45 PM
I actually think Reds fans trump Cardinals fans in Indiana, but definitely play in the shadow of Cubs fans.A look at this blackout map (http://bp1.blogger.com/_wvoLtwni0kc/RhUvZd19-xI/AAAAAAAAHg4/nE8fsbE7hmg/s1600-h/MLBBLACKOUT.jpg) will tell you which parts of Indiana the clubs consider to be their territory.

Falls City Beer
05-01-2008, 04:21 PM
The farm won't save the Reds, but, for the first time in a long time, it's providing some legitimate help. Personally, I find demands of immediate gratification as useless as empty promises that the future is assured. What I see is a franchise that's got some things to work with. Whether Jocketty and Baker can piece it together remains to be seen, but this club some talent on hand.

Cold comfort. Honestly, this is the same agnosticism we've labored under for all but the two DanO years (when it was clear the organization was headed downward) out of the last decade.

I gotta tell ya, I'm not at all convinced that *anything's* been fundamentally "turned around."

Right now, we start all over again with Jocketty and a huge host of question marks. I think Jocketty's the right guy to take a team's minor league "buzz" and trade it into legitimate MLB talent, so I'm happy about that, but this major league product is putrid, so there's no telling how long it'll take to line up all the pieces. For all we know, contention may take so long now, the Harang window might close before they get there.

And honestly, I find the either/or of "instant gratification" versus "future assurances" to be reductive.

(And this pitching staff is a disaster that's not only already happening, but shaping up to be downright monstrous. I totally disagree with your assessment of this team's pitching).

REDREAD
05-01-2008, 04:43 PM
The farm won't save the Reds, but, for the first time in a long time, it's providing some legitimate help. Personally, I find demands of immediate gratification as useless as empty promises that the future is assured. What I see is a franchise that's got some things to work with. Whether Jocketty and Baker can piece it together remains to be seen, but this club some talent on hand.

But let's look back at the 2005 club in hindsight, going under the optimistic assumptions many had:

Pitching:

Clausen, coming off 166 IP, and a 4.21 ERA seemed to be a workable rotation guy. The "ace" predictions had soured, but he seemed useful.

Belisle: Many people high on this guy as well. Seemed like another promising young guy

Harang: this guy was actually underrated at the time by most. Hadn't broken through yet.

Weathers: old but solid, much like some of our current bullpen guys.

Other guys generally viewed favorably: Coffey, Wanger, Lizard, Valentine, Shackleford.

On the farm: Homer, Ceuto (although he was under the radar and shouldn't count in the optimism score),

So, one would say that there's some holes in that staff obviously, but not
that bad of a base to start with.

Lineup:
I don't know how many people were predicting LaRue's self destruction in the 2006 season.I can't recall any. Prior to Ross being picked up, most people were generally optimistic about LaRue for the short term at least.

Casey was falling out of favor, but Votto was already on the farm, and causing excitement.

People were high on EdE, Freel, Lopez,

In the OF: this was considered a strength, with Dunn, Jr, Kearns, and Pena.
Folks were really high on Deno as well. There was a lot of hope some of the excessive OF help could be moved for pitching..

So, as far as lineup goes, it was generally viewed that we were pretty solid everywhere except 1b, but Votto was coming.. Just as people are excited this year about Bruce coming.

So, my point in listing all this is that there was a pretty high level of optimism when Wayne arrived, as far as most of the pieces being in place, and a good base to work from.

Not directed at you M2, but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true. I'd say people were just as optimistic now as they were back then.

I'm not going to go back and see what prospects were really hot back then. But I remember people having hope for guys like Olmedo, Bergolllia, etc.

So I guess the point is that in 2005 (when Wayne arrived), the Reds were generally viewed as being in pretty good shape too, and that the right GM could find another pitcher or two and get this team back to contending.
Optimism certainly went through the roof in the early part of the 2006 season, when the roster was largely DanO's guys plus Hat, Arroyo + Phillips.

Aronchis
05-01-2008, 04:55 PM
Cold comfort. Honestly, this is the same agnosticism we've labored under for all but the two DanO years (when it was clear the organization was headed downward) out of the last decade.

I gotta tell ya, I'm not at all convinced that *anything's* been fundamentally "turned around."

Right now, we start all over again with Jocketty and a huge host of question marks. I think Jocketty's the right guy to take a team's minor league "buzz" and trade it into legitimate MLB talent, so I'm happy about that, but this major league product is putrid, so there's no telling how long it'll take to line up all the pieces. For all we know, contention may take so long now, the Harang window might close before they get there.

And honestly, I find the either/or of "instant gratification" versus "future assurances" to be reductive.

(And this pitching staff is a disaster that's not only already happening, but shaping up to be downright monstrous. I totally disagree with your assessment of this team's pitching).

and I disagree with yours. Bad pitching still? Sure? But monstrous? Nada. Be very very wary of the early season. It lies. Alot. Sorta like spring training.

The Reds have a prime Harang, blooming Volquez and another big rightie developing down in the minors. That core alone speaks to good things going foward. The bullpen has some talent finally(along with some holes yet assured) and I will say it has probably overachieved abit. But as the weather warms up some of those struggling bullpen arms in AAA/AA will get hot and bloom. It is simple math. Jocketty simply needs to take the pieces that will work and move the talent he can for filling the remaining holes. It isn't that difficult. You try to make it sound horrible. It isn't.

Falls City Beer
05-01-2008, 04:59 PM
and I disagree with yours. Bad pitching still? Sure? But monstrous? Nada. Be very very wary of the early season. It lies. Alot. Sorta like spring training.

The Reds have a prime Harang, blooming Volquez and another big rightie developing down in the minors. That core alone speaks to good things going foward. The bullpen has some talent finally(along with some holes yet assured) and I will say it has probably overachieved abit. But as the weather warms up some of those struggling bullpen arms in AAA/AA will get hot and bloom. It is simple math. Jocketty simply needs to take the pieces that will work and move the talent he can for filling the remaining holes. It isn't that difficult. You try to make it sound horrible. It isn't.

The Reds have two MLB starters. Huzzah.

Aronchis
05-01-2008, 05:00 PM
The Reds have two MLB starters. Huzzah.

or maybe more. You don't know that. That is the point.

Falls City Beer
05-01-2008, 05:01 PM
You don't know that.

Agnosticism. I like Baconian certainty.

Ltlabner
05-01-2008, 05:02 PM
...but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true.

Repeat this sentence, out loud, five thousand times.

It will still never be true.

And using fan optimisim as a vaild measuring stick is a fools errand. Hell, I'm optimisitic that the Reds will be in the hunt every spring. But my enternal optimisim has no bearing on the objective facts on the playing field, no matter how many times I forget the lesson. So to say the orginization was in good shape just because some fans were buzzed about Ryan Wagner is massive leap in pseudo-logic.

Aronchis
05-01-2008, 05:16 PM
But let's look back at the 2005 club in hindsight, going under the optimistic assumptions many had:

Pitching:

Clausen, coming off 166 IP, and a 4.21 ERA seemed to be a workable rotation guy. The "ace" predictions had soured, but he seemed useful.

Belisle: Many people high on this guy as well. Seemed like another promising young guy

Harang: this guy was actually underrated at the time by most. Hadn't broken through yet.

Weathers: old but solid, much like some of our current bullpen guys.

Other guys generally viewed favorably: Coffey, Wanger, Lizard, Valentine, Shackleford.

On the farm: Homer, Ceuto (although he was under the radar and shouldn't count in the optimism score),

So, one would say that there's some holes in that staff obviously, but not
that bad of a base to start with.

Lineup:
I don't know how many people were predicting LaRue's self destruction in the 2006 season.I can't recall any. Prior to Ross being picked up, most people were generally optimistic about LaRue for the short term at least.

Casey was falling out of favor, but Votto was already on the farm, and causing excitement.

People were high on EdE, Freel, Lopez,

In the OF: this was considered a strength, with Dunn, Jr, Kearns, and Pena.
Folks were really high on Deno as well. There was a lot of hope some of the excessive OF help could be moved for pitching..

So, as far as lineup goes, it was generally viewed that we were pretty solid everywhere except 1b, but Votto was coming.. Just as people are excited this year about Bruce coming.

So, my point in listing all this is that there was a pretty high level of optimism when Wayne arrived, as far as most of the pieces being in place, and a good base to work from.

Not directed at you M2, but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true. I'd say people were just as optimistic now as they were back then.

I'm not going to go back and see what prospects were really hot back then. But I remember people having hope for guys like Olmedo, Bergolllia, etc.

So I guess the point is that in 2005 (when Wayne arrived), the Reds were generally viewed as being in pretty good shape too, and that the right GM could find another pitcher or two and get this team back to contending.
Optimism certainly went through the roof in the early part of the 2006 season, when the roster was largely DanO's guys plus Hat, Arroyo + Phillips.

In 2005:
1.Claussens shoulder was shot. That is why his velocity fell(not elbow). I saw him pitch Augest 03 and he looked great(90-93mph fastball, about a tick below his pre-TJ level) with nasty slider. That following spring, his stuff looked like it fell apart. I commented the Reds should be looking into trading Claussen for this very reason and got bashed. The guy had issues.
2.Harang broke out legitly
3.Belisle. Nobody was that high on Matt. He was in the BP at that time. Basically we hoped he could become somebody some day(maybe he still will)
4.Weathers. Please, he was old. His 2006-7 was a mirage. Not the kind of stuff teams build on
5.Bailey,Cueto. Again, please. Both of those guys were years away in 2005 and even in 2006 from becoming a BIG force.
6.The other guys? What guys? Outside of Coffey, none were overly highly respected. Wagner fell apart in 05 and most suspected a injury. We were right. By the end of 05, he was already a afterthought for many(at least in my mind he was).

So we didn't have near as much as you hoped after 05. Harang and um, um, um maybe Coffey ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! Not much.

As for the lineup, please. Votto was coming off a sad 2005 season and Griffey hit his last big year. Dunn was topping out and Kearns was flopping. EE was to young and was years away from making a big impact. No doubt the Reds had some talent there, but not as much as you hope.

I would say the big loss was the dream of turning Kearns into a stud pitcher. Well, no wonder we didn't. The truth hurts there.

I would take the Reds now. If this current May 1st edition was what we had at the end of 2005, I bet many GM's would have taken up Cast's offer for the job. Young exciting infield, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey,Johnny Cueto, Ed Volquez. Alot to play with. After 2005? Nothing.

nate
05-01-2008, 05:21 PM
but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true. I'd say people were just as optimistic now as they were back then.

I thought the offense was good, defense was poor and would need to give FCB a thesaurus and about 5 minutes to adequately describe the pitching.


So I guess the point is that in 2005 (when Wayne arrived)...

Wayne arrived in 2006, broham.


...the Reds were generally viewed as being in pretty good shape too,

No, sir. Not by me!


Optimism certainly went through the roof in the early part of the 2006 season, when the roster was largely DanO's guys plus Hat, Arroyo + Phillips.

That was excitement relative to having Jacob Cruz, Milton/Wilson and D'Angelo Jimenez inked in to the lineup.

M2
05-01-2008, 07:33 PM
I guess the point is that in 2005 (when Wayne arrived), the Reds were generally viewed as being in pretty good shape too, and that the right GM could find another pitcher or two and get this team back to contending.

Sure, if you had your head in the sand in 2005 you very well might have thought that. I didn't. You didn't. Both of us knew better.

And it's got nothing to do with the current situation where the Reds have Phillips in his prime, Encarnacion on the improve, Votto breaking in, Bruce pounding at the door, more attractive starting pitching options than at any point in recent memory and a quality closer.

The point I was making is that the Reds are somewhere in between dire and winning, which I vastly prefer to dire.

M2
05-01-2008, 07:44 PM
Agnosticism. I like Baconian certainty.

You mean, like the 13th century sucks and we need a Renaissance?

I'm down with that and I'd suggest Bacon wouldn't have throw rocks at Galileo the first time the Italian didn't produce a working telescope.

Caveat Emperor
05-01-2008, 09:16 PM
Not directed at you M2, but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true. I'd say people were just as optimistic now as they were back then.

Are you kidding?

Pre-Wayne, the Reds were going into the season penciling in the likes of Dave Williams, Brandon Claussen and Eric Milton into the rotation. The bullpen included Chris Hammond, Mike Burns and Rick White.

That 2006 team was destined to lose, and lose hard -- and I think most people were fairly certain of that. If Dan'O hadn't been fired, they'd have been a real threat to lose an even 100.

fearofpopvol1
07-12-2009, 02:45 PM
"We're just not going to lose anymore." -Bob Castellini, 4/23/08

top6
07-12-2009, 04:33 PM
"We're just not going to lose anymore." -Bob Castellini, 4/23/08

HA HA HA. So great.

He really is the worst professional sports owner in Cincinnati. Has this team EVER committed to contending or rebuilding? No is the answer, in my opinion.

Mike Brown is awful, but consistent. Castellini is just strange. Spends millions on Dusty Baker when someone just as good could be had for probably $300,000 a year or less. Changes GMs three times in a few years.

I'll take Mike Brown's quixotic quest to win HIS way, no matter what, over the meaningless bluster and constant search for quick fixes that we've seen at Great American Ballpark lately.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-12-2009, 04:48 PM
HA HA HA. So great.

He really is the worst professional sports owner in Cincinnati. Has this team EVER committed to contending or rebuilding? No is the answer, in my opinion.

Mike Brown is awful, but consistent. Castellini is just strange. Spends millions on Dusty Baker when someone just as good could be had for probably $300,000 a year or less. Changes GMs three times in a few years.

I'll take Mike Brown's quixotic quest to win HIS way, no matter what, over the meaningless bluster and constant search for quick fixes that we've seen at Great American Ballpark lately.

What he said.

TheNext44
07-12-2009, 05:26 PM
HA HA HA. So great.

He really is the worst professional sports owner in Cincinnati. Has this team EVER committed to contending or rebuilding? No is the answer, in my opinion.

Mike Brown is awful, but consistent. Castellini is just strange. Spends millions on Dusty Baker when someone just as good could be had for probably $300,000 a year or less. Changes GMs three times in a few years.

I'll take Mike Brown's quixotic quest to win HIS way, no matter what, over the meaningless bluster and constant search for quick fixes that we've seen at Great American Ballpark lately.

Never let facts get in the way of a good rant.

1) He has changed GM's twice since he has owned the team. And both times, it was an improvement.

2) I think even Narron and Miley got close to $500K a year, and I know that even A.J. Hinch is around that. But you are right a cheaper manager could had, just not for anywhere near $300K.

3) The Reds are contending now, thanks to Cast commiting too much money to Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, Taveras, Lincoln, Hairston and Cordero. Commitment to winning is not his problem.

4) Mike Brown has no quest to win, his way or any other. He has a quest to make money. If he wins while doing that... gravy.

Cast wants to win. However, he is just starting to figure out how, with Jocketty's guidance. The health of the Reds organization is miles better than the health of the Bengals. Not even close.

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2009, 05:30 PM
1) He has changed GM's twice since he has owned the team. And both times, it was an improvement.


That's your opinion. Me? I would take Wayne Krivsky over Jocketty any day of the week.

Homer Bailey
07-12-2009, 05:31 PM
That's your opinion. Me? I would take Wayne Krivsky over Jocketty any day of the week.

2nd that opinion. Krivsky actually brought real talent into this organization.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2009, 05:34 PM
Remember when folks said Krivsky was "good at contracts?" Then he promptly turned around and signed a soft-tosser entering his early 30's to a multi-year deal?

What Jocketty has done is exactly what this board has been asking for for years: don't trade away the kids; bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts.

Yeah, it's slow going. But that's what you get when you're counting on a farm to win.

Though had Krivsky chosen the obviously correct selection Lincecum, this would be a very different team in a very different race right now.

edabbs44
07-12-2009, 06:06 PM
Remember when folks said Krivsky was "good at contracts?" Then he promptly turned around and signed a soft-tosser entering his early 30's to a multi-year deal?

Agreed.


What Jocketty has done is exactly what this board has been asking for for years: don't trade away the kids; bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts.

Agreed.


Yeah, it's slow going. But that's what you get when you're counting on a farm to win.

Agreed.


Though had Krivsky chosen the obviously correct selection Lincecum, this would be a very different team in a very different race right now.

Agreed.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-12-2009, 06:14 PM
Though had Krivsky chosen the obviously correct selection Lincecum, this would be a very different team in a very different race right now.


That's assuming the Reds could have developed him the way the Giants' system did. Or assuming the injury-magnet that is the Cincinnati Reds organization didn't bite him along the way.

edabbs44
07-12-2009, 06:15 PM
2nd that opinion. Krivsky actually brought real talent into this organization.

I think that he is actually overrated in that regard. His best acquisitons were 2 of an infinite number of shots in the dark that he took while here, and then turned one of them into a very good starter. We've seen nothing from his 2 drafts in Cincy to this point and we have seen a few players that his regime passed on already get to the show. One of his positive additions turned into a big negative after the contract he gave him. He had a number of other low risk acquisitions that seemed to build his reputation in the short term, but end up being exposed in the end.

We also saw a weird obsession with the bullpen where he spent an inordinate amt of time and budget trying to fix it. He ended up improving it, but definitely at a cost.

Wayne did a decent to good job as a talent evaluator. But as a GM, he flunked.

Highlifeman21
07-12-2009, 06:19 PM
That's assuming the Reds could have developed him the way the Giants' system did. Or assuming the injury-magnet that is the Cincinnati Reds organization didn't bite him along the way.

Jerry Narron would have killed him.

And if Jerry didn't, The Dusty sure would have...

Falls City Beer
07-12-2009, 06:20 PM
The Dusty sure would have...

So far Dusty has done nothing to Cueto or Volquez that would indicate such.

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2009, 06:32 PM
I think that he is actually overrated in that regard. His best acquisitons were 2 of an infinite number of shots in the dark that he took while here, and then turned one of them into a very good starter. We've seen nothing from his 2 drafts in Cincy to this point and we have seen a few players that his regime passed on already get to the show. One of his positive additions turned into a big negative after the contract he gave him. He had a number of other low risk acquisitions that seemed to build his reputation in the short term, but end up being exposed in the end.

We also saw a weird obsession with the bullpen where he spent an inordinate amt of time and budget trying ti fix it. He ended up improving it, but definitely at a cost.

Wayne did a decent to good job as a talent evaluator. But as a GM, he flunked.

2006 draft:

Drew Stubbs - AAA...projects as Gold Glove CFer. Obviously passing on Lincecum was a huge mistake. I was very much in favor of Lincecum.

Valaika is already in AAA.

Justin Turner was used in a trade to acquire Ramon Hernandez.

Josh Roenicke is pitching well in the majors so far.

Chris Heisey is OPSing over 1.000 in AAA right now and is on the verge of reaching the majors.

Despite passing on Lincecum, the 2006 draft is looking good, though it would have been a tremendous draft if they selected Lincecum.

2007 draft:

I like the early returns on the 2007 draft despite Mesoraco not doing anything. Frazier, Cozart, and Soto all look like good prospects. Kyle Lotzkar has a big arm too, though he's struggled with injury problems this season.

It's way too early to judge his drafts.

IslandRed
07-12-2009, 06:40 PM
Cast wants to win. However, he is just starting to figure out how, with Jocketty's guidance.

Took the words out of my mouth. Wanting to win and knowing how are two completely different things.

Of course, to a lot of casual fans, "wanting to win" is a simple question of whether the team is spending more money than it has. :p:

edabbs44
07-12-2009, 06:50 PM
Jerry Narron would have killed him.

And if Jerry didn't, The Dusty sure would have...

Oh yeah, and Dusty was Wayne's guy. He even admitted it as he was walking out the door.

TheNext44
07-12-2009, 07:26 PM
2nd that opinion. Krivsky actually brought real talent into this organization.

I agree that he brought good talent to the organization, and he is part of the reason why the organization is where it is today, head and shoulders above where it was when Linder owned it.

I liked Wayne, I just like Walt a little better.

Wayne acquired some solid talent in Phillips, Hamilton, Arroyo, Cordero, all for next to nothing. But he never put together a team. He never had a solid plan for the future. Maybe he would have if given a chance, we'll never know.

But Walt has a clear plan. Pitching, defense and depth in the minors. He is sticking to that plan, even when given an opportunity to go for it this year. Might be hard to take this year, but like eating right, and working out, we'll be glad he did in the future.

mth123
07-12-2009, 07:39 PM
I agree with Edabbs comments about Krivsky. I thought he was a good scout but lacking as a GM. My expectations for Walt soared when he started taking out the garbage last season. His DFA of David Ross is my favorite move so far. The problem is he brought in worse garbage this year than anything he inherited, and it wasn't "end of the bench role player garbage" along the lines of Juan Castro, but "primary acquisition, 2 year deal, lead-off , play CF and get the most plate appearances on the roster" garbage.

That one move totally soured me on the current regime. When 90% of this board knew it was a disaster from day one, it makes me question everything. It wasn't like it was a close call or defensible in any way (though some well meaning posters tried). It makes you wonder if he's even trying. Is he going through the motions and letting Dusty call the shots? How can the guy with the annual contender in St. Louis possibly think Willy Taveras was a good idea? I can't get past it.

jojo
07-12-2009, 08:03 PM
Remember when folks said Krivsky was "good at contracts?" Then he promptly turned around and signed a soft-tosser entering his early 30's to a multi-year deal?

What Jocketty has done is exactly what this board has been asking for for years: don't trade away the kids; bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts.
Yeah, it's slow going. But that's what you get when you're counting on a farm to win.

Though had Krivsky chosen the obviously correct selection Lincecum, this would be a very different team in a very different race right now.

This kind of smacks of results-based analysis IMHO.

First, Harang's contract was a good one and Arroyo's was riskier but not a de facto poor one (the two were almost done simultaneously so it's appropriate to discuss them as a pair).

Concerning Lincecum, there were legit reasons to pass him over and his selection was by no means an obvious choice that was flubbed at the time teams were on the clock.

Really all Jocketty has done so far is pass on big name free agents, not trade anyone who could be considered significant, signed turds like Lincoln and Taveras to multi-year deals, outbid the league for Hairston and did some shopping on the Island of Misfit Toys (Nixs and Gomes). This is a dramatic departure from Krivsky?

Jocketty is not a moron, I repeat, he's not. But I'm not getting this narrative that he's the savior that is righting a ship Krivsky was driving into the shoreline.

I also don't get why the farm has suddenly blossomed since Jocketty took over (apparently so since the argument has become that the proof in Jocketty's pudding is that he didn't " trade away the kids (presumably the ones that Krivsky wasn't nurturing?); bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts" :


Every time Cueto takes the mound, I think a little less of the "great" development team assembled under Krivsky.

Honestly, how many times are we going to hear how good a shape this team's farm system is? It's this overarching narrative that connects every era of the last 10 years: the MLB product is dogcrap, but boy their farm is making great strides.

Big Klu
07-12-2009, 08:18 PM
What Jocketty has done is exactly what this board has been asking for for years: don't trade away the kids; bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts.

Yeah, it's slow going. But that's what you get when you're counting on a farm to win.

I agree. Walt Jocketty is doing what a real GM does. It's been so long since the Reds have had one that we fans have forgotten what it's like.



So far Dusty has done nothing to Cueto or Volquez that would indicate such.

Seriously, Dusty gets a bad rap for "ruining" pitchers because of Prior and Wood. IMO, he has done very well in his handling of the Reds' staff, particularly the young guns (Volquez, Cueto, Bailey).

He also gets a bad rap for his so-called "vet-love", but Votto was given an opportunity to win his position early in the 2008 season, Bruce has been a starter since the moment he was first called up, and Dickerson has been getting more opportunities lately (and it looks like his role might expand). Dusty is also the only Reds manager who has ever treated Encarnacion the way that the "silent majority" at RedsZone feels like he ought to be treated.



How can the guy with the annual contender in St. Louis possibly think Willy Taveras was a good idea? I can't get past it.

He's the same guy who went to the World Series with Tony Womack as his leadoff hitter. If he did it once, he can do it again.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2009, 08:57 PM
This kind of smacks of results-based analysis IMHO.

First, Harang's contract was a good one and Arroyo's was riskier but not a de facto poor one (the two were almost done simultaneously so it's appropriate to discuss them as a pair).

Concerning Lincecum, there were legit reasons to pass him over and his selection was by no means an obvious choice that was flubbed at the time teams were on the clock.

Really all Jocketty has done so far is pass on big name free agents, not trade anyone who could be considered significant, signed turds like Lincoln and Taveras to multi-year deals, outbid the league for Hairston and did some shopping on the Island of Misfit Toys (Nixs and Gomes). This is a dramatic departure from Krivsky?

Jocketty is not a moron, I repeat, he's not. But I'm not getting this narrative that he's the savior that is righting a ship Krivsky was driving into the shoreline.

I also don't get why the farm has suddenly blossomed since Jocketty took over (apparently so since the argument has become that the proof in Jocketty's pudding is that he didn't " trade away the kids (presumably the ones that Krivsky wasn't nurturing?); bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts" :

I've never been the biggest fan of sitting and waiting on the farm, but Krivsky/O'Brien/Jocketty have all three overseen drafts that have turned up some interesting offensive players. But I've never claimed that the farm has "all of a sudden blossomed" under Jocketty. (And I've never claimed that Jocketty is a savior--it's entirely possible he can't build a winner with a shrinking/frozen budget)

My point is that folks have been complaining for years that GMs have been getting middling talent like Aurilia for instance and blocking "unreal talent" on the farm. Well, it's not really turned out that way has it? Can anyone--before last season's seeming turnaround of farm hands making to the majors--claim that the farm has been the answer to what's ailed the Reds this decade? Now that there's a GM who hasn't been trading away prospects, people are complaining. It's backwards. If Krivsky et al were so skilled at building a farm (and maybe they were), then why would one want to gut it for a Bedard or a Dye? The same folks declaiming Krivsky for his farm renaissance wanted Jocketty to do what, exactly? It seems, if you followed what folks were saying about the talent on the farm, that most folks didn't want to trade the farm before this season. But now that "they're SOOOO close," people wanted to go for it. It was pretty clearly *not* the season to go for it as it turns out. Maybe a little conservatism vis. trades and the roster was what was called for. And maybe Walt saw that. Maybe he didn't. Nevertheless, it turns out that it was the right move. It's certainly not a reason to fire him.

As a side bar, paying an average of 10 million a season for at best a league-average pitcher in Arroyo was a bad move. Maybe not a bad move for the Yankees, but certainly a bad one for the Reds. Several folks questioned the decision at the time. Harang's deal was a pretty good one, however.

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2009, 09:10 PM
I agree. Walt Jocketty is doing what a real GM does. It's been so long since the Reds have had one that we fans have forgotten what it's like.


A real GM? He signed Willy Taveras and Mike Lincoln to multi year contracts. I was much more impressed with Krivsky than I have been with Jocketty. Krivsky brought a lot of talent into the organization - Hamilton, Volquez, Phillips, Cordero, Burton (horrible this season, yeah, but he was good in 2007-2008), Arroyo. What has Jocketty done so far?

BTW, great post jojo.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2009, 09:14 PM
What has Jocketty done so far?.

For the record, Krivsky had the benefit of being able to offer $50 million contracts to relievers and starters.

Has Jocketty been extended that luxury?

edabbs44
07-12-2009, 09:16 PM
2006 draft:

Drew Stubbs - AAA...projects as Gold Glove CFer. Obviously passing on Lincecum was a huge mistake. I was very much in favor of Lincecum.

Valaika is already in AAA.

Justin Turner was used in a trade to acquire Ramon Hernandez.

Josh Roenicke is pitching well in the majors so far.

Chris Heisey is OPSing over 1.000 in AAA right now and is on the verge of reaching the majors.

Despite passing on Lincecum, the 2006 draft is looking good, though it would have been a tremendous draft if they selected Lincecum.

Stubbs? If all we can say about our top 10 pick is that he projects as a GG outfielder, then that says it all. And they didn't just pass on Lincecum. They passed on Scherzer and Joba as well, to name a few. And they also went for Watson over Brett Anderson in the 2nd, which was as much as a debacle as the 1st round was.

Valaika is struggling in AAA.

Heisey looks awesome.

Turner, big deal.

Roenicke is also going to be 27 in a month and just made it up. And the sample size couldn't get any smaller.


2007 draft:

I like the early returns on the 2007 draft despite Mesoraco not doing anything. Frazier, Cozart, and Soto all look like good prospects. Kyle Lotzkar has a big arm too, though he's struggled with injury problems this season.

Very early but, again, nothing to get excited about yet.


It's way too early to judge his drafts.

It isn't too early on 2006. It isn't impossible to get some production out of a draft 3 years ago, especially when you use your top 3 picks on college guys.

edabbs44
07-12-2009, 09:23 PM
This kind of smacks of results-based analysis IMHO.

First, Harang's contract was a good one and Arroyo's was riskier but not a de facto poor one (the two were almost done simultaneously so it's appropriate to discuss them as a pair).

Arroyo's was a poor decision. Why extend a guy who has 2 years left at bargain basement prices? Wayne was in love with his first big acquisition and then took all the value away with the extension.


Concerning Lincecum, there were legit reasons to pass him over and his selection was by no means an obvious choice that was flubbed at the time teams were on the clock.

They passed on more than Lincecum. I'd love to have Scherzer as well. Joba would be nice.


Really all Jocketty has done so far is pass on big name free agents, not trade anyone who could be considered significant, signed turds like Lincoln and Taveras to multi-year deals, outbid the league for Hairston and did some shopping on the Island of Misfit Toys (Nixs and Gomes). This is a dramatic departure from Krivsky?

Somewhat, since he hasn't added big money contracts like Wayne sprinkled in. I think most on here would love to get out from under Cordero and Arroyo's deals.

jojo
07-12-2009, 09:27 PM
For the record, Krivsky had the benefit of being able to offer $50 million contracts to relievers and starters.

Has Jocketty been extended that luxury?

I think it's a fair argument that the economy has influenced decisions.

membengal
07-12-2009, 09:28 PM
I am fine with the Cordero deal. He stabalized the back of the pen, and he has lived up to the contract. 2007's bullpen meltdown was a nightmare that we all too easily forget.

edabbs44
07-12-2009, 09:28 PM
A real GM? He signed Willy Taveras and Mike Lincoln to multi year contracts. I was much more impressed with Krivsky than I have been with Jocketty.

Stanton/Castro versus Lincoln/Taveras.

Which set of 2 year contracts is worse?

membengal
07-12-2009, 09:30 PM
I was personally hoping Jocketty would be smart enough to avoid providing an odds on favorite to win such a lame competition....

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2009, 10:49 PM
Stanton/Castro versus Lincoln/Taveras.

Which set of 2 year contracts is worse?

I'll take Stanton/Castro over Lincoln/Taveras. Re-signing Hairston was a bad deal too.

dougdirt
07-12-2009, 10:51 PM
Stanton/Castro versus Lincoln/Taveras.

Which set of 2 year contracts is worse?

Taveras/Lincoln. Taveras is the only starter in that group, so his sucktitude hurts the team even more.

That said, Krivsky didn't have a full GM's job. He had other people making deciscions over his head on players. I don't know if Jocketty has the same thing going on.

edabbs44
07-12-2009, 11:11 PM
I'll take Stanton/Castro over Lincoln/Taveras. Re-signing Hairston was a bad deal too.

You'd rather have Stanton and Castro? Then you have a very short memory.

We can go on for a while with Wayne's contract/acquisition mishaps. Hatteberg's option, Cormier, Fogg, Gonzalez, Conine, etc.

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2009, 11:19 PM
Rather than debating who's mistakes were worse, who can find something particularly positive to say about either? Because that's what really matters.

I simply don't see anything constructive that Jocketty has really done since taking the job.

top6
07-12-2009, 11:39 PM
Never let facts get in the way of a good rant.

1) He has changed GM's twice since he has owned the team. And both times, it was an improvement.

2) I think even Narron and Miley got close to $500K a year, and I know that even A.J. Hinch is around that. But you are right a cheaper manager could had, just not for anywhere near $300K.

3) The Reds are contending now, thanks to Cast commiting too much money to Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, Taveras, Lincoln, Hairston and Cordero. Commitment to winning is not his problem.

4) Mike Brown has no quest to win, his way or any other. He has a quest to make money. If he wins while doing that... gravy.

Cast wants to win. However, he is just starting to figure out how, with Jocketty's guidance. The health of the Reds organization is miles better than the health of the Bengals. Not even close.

First, I agree that one should never EVER let the facts get in the way of a good rant.

On #1, I meant to say that he's had 3 GMs since he took over. And even as I was thinking that (and intending to type it), I did realize it was pretty unfair.

On #2, my only standard was better than Dusty Baker. I include both the gentlemen you mention in that category, as I would include many, many people who would take the job for less than $300K.

My only real point was that spending big on the fricking manager - of all things - is just a sign of an organization that has no idea what it was doing. It would be sort of like having your closer be your second highest paid player ... oh, wait.

On #3, I don't consider under .500 and in 5th place contending, but that's just me.

On #4, I just disagree, but I guess we've both psycoanalyzed both owners enough for one day.

edabbs44
07-12-2009, 11:40 PM
Rather than debating who's mistakes were worse, who can find something particularly positive to say about either? Because that's what really matters.

I simply don't see anything constructive that Jocketty has really done since taking the job.

I believe that Walt realized that going for it now was a mistake. He didn't fall into the "win now" mentality and, instead, he is willing to build a winner. Which is what we needed for the past 5 years.

top6
07-12-2009, 11:48 PM
I believe that Walt realized that going for it now was a mistake. He didn't fall into the "win now" mentality and, instead, he is willing to build a winner. Which is what we needed for the past 5 years.

But if this is true, why sign Taveras?!?!?

TheNext44
07-13-2009, 12:20 AM
Rather than debating who's mistakes were worse, who can find something particularly positive to say about either? Because that's what really matters.

I simply don't see anything constructive that Jocketty has really done since taking the job.

Excellent point about looking for positives.

Here is my list of positives for Krivsky:

Phillips (Brandon, not Andy)
Hamilton
Volquez
Herrera
Arroyo
Cordero
Hatteberg
A Gonzalez (yes, even with the injuries, the contract was a good one)

Made no trades that haunt.

Here is my list of positives for Jocketty:

Owings
Massett
R. Hernandez
Nix
Gomes
Rhodes
improved defense
better handling of Bailey
stability/long term plan
better draft plan; picking pitchers that fit the park best, safer picks at top when the money is big, more risk at the back of the draft when the value is greater.
not panicking and not trading for quick fixes during the season.

Summation:

Krivsky brought in great talent at very little cost, Jocketty brought in a long term plan to build a strong organization. Without Krivsky's talent injection, Jocketty's plan would have taken much longer to get the Reds where they are right now.

Scrap Irony
07-13-2009, 12:26 AM
He screwed up. All GMs do. Taveras was meant to be a place holder until Stubbs was ready. Dusty wanted him, fans wanted an OF in the worst possible way, and Jocketty thought (incorrectly) he could be a passable CF for this team, giving up tons of power, but providing plus defense and somewhere between 65 and 80 stolen bases. Baker (and probably Jocketty) didn't trust the breakout season of Dickerson either.

As it stands, Taveras has given his team a pretty solid CF despite grumblings from Red fans (3.7 UZR/150) and recent gaffes. Unfortunately, he's stolen much less than normal, probably due to hamstring problems.

In short, a gamble Jocketty didn't have to make with money that could have been better spent elsewhere on a player that hasn't panned out.

Patrick Bateman
07-13-2009, 01:30 AM
I believe that Walt realized that going for it now was a mistake. He didn't fall into the "win now" mentality and, instead, he is willing to build a winner. Which is what we needed for the past 5 years.

Just to play devil's advocate here....

I would think that one of your biggest criticisms was the timing and length of the Arroyo contract. At the same time, I think it would be fair to say that Arroyo had trade value in the the most recent offseason.

How come Jocketty holds no blame with the current Arroyo situation? Had he seen Arroyo as a bad value long term, and this team as a short term non contender, he could have easily rid of Krivsky's mistake, and could have probably turned it into a psoitive. Perhaps he hasn't added any long term contracts, but he hasn't exactly made an effort to remove the current ones that perhaps aren't great long term deals (ie. Arroyo, Harang, Cordero). If he were trying to build a long term winner, I think the proper direction would have been to trade those types of contracts for near ready MLB talent to pair with the existing talent. Otherwise, I think he's falling into the same type of trap that I think you rightfully called Krivsky out for, which was a poor ability to align the team's assets into a matching time frame.

Now, don't get me wrong, I do appreciate Jocketty's patience with the system, but at the same time, I cannot think of one move that he has done that has helped take that philosophy to the next level. IMO, it's been more roster shuffling, rather than adding young talent to the organization.

Ltlabner
07-13-2009, 06:42 AM
As a side bar, paying an average of 10 million a season for at best a league-average pitcher in Arroyo was a bad move.

Yet, I don't remember you making a peep about it until anytime Arroyo has struggled.

Maybe I'm just not remembering that correctly, if so, preemptive apologies. Otherwise, while I recall a couple of people questioning it, I don't recall your vehement disgust at the time of the deal.

edabbs44
07-13-2009, 08:07 AM
Just to play devil's advocate here....

I would think that one of your biggest criticisms was the timing and length of the Arroyo contract. At the same time, I think it would be fair to say that Arroyo had trade value in the the most recent offseason.

How come Jocketty holds no blame with the current Arroyo situation? Had he seen Arroyo as a bad value long term, and this team as a short term non contender, he could have easily rid of Krivsky's mistake, and could have probably turned it into a psoitive. Perhaps he hasn't added any long term contracts, but he hasn't exactly made an effort to remove the current ones that perhaps aren't great long term deals (ie. Arroyo, Harang, Cordero). If he were trying to build a long term winner, I think the proper direction would have been to trade those types of contracts for near ready MLB talent to pair with the existing talent. Otherwise, I think he's falling into the same type of trap that I think you rightfully called Krivsky out for, which was a poor ability to align the team's assets into a matching time frame.

Now, don't get me wrong, I do appreciate Jocketty's patience with the system, but at the same time, I cannot think of one move that he has done that has helped take that philosophy to the next level. IMO, it's been more roster shuffling, rather than adding young talent to the organization.

I guess we disagree on what the perception of Arroyo was last offseason.

This is all guesswork but one possibility would be the timing. Who wanted to take Arroyo, owed $20ishMM over the next two years after his ERA rose 1.5 runs in the last 3 years? Same thing with Harang, who was coming off the worst year of his life and 2nd half arm soreness? When you see what Wolf and Looper got last offseason as free agents it makes sense that there would be little to no interest in taking those contracts at those rates, especially when factoring in giving up anyone of value.

How about Cordero, owed $36MM over the next three years when a guy like KRod (7 years his junior, coming off the save record) signed for the same price?

Maybe they could have gotten rid of one of these guys, but my guess is that they would have had to eaten a large amt of money. And Bob is probably sick of doing that.

jojo
07-13-2009, 08:41 AM
Here is my list of positives for Jocketty:

Owings
Massett

In hindsight Jocketty looks brilliant for not favoring the arb/picks exit strategy with Dunn given how baseball reacted to the economy last fall. At the time, I argued that comp picks would've been the more valuable play. That said, as a pitcher, Owings' most valuable skill is his ability to SLG but he might also burn 180 innings. Those innings haven't been a dramatic upgrade over replacement thus far however (FIP=5.46). Masset probably isn't as good as he's been during the first half-he's a legit major league pen arm but he's just not that rare of one. Regardless, Jocketty flipped 2 months of Dunn for what might end up being 250 innings in year one.

Concerning the economy, this might be one of those cases where Bob C was able to forecast better than the competitors and WJ leveraged this? They do this for a living so obviously they know more than we do.



R. Hernandez

Given the player sent the other way and the salary situation, this was a move where the calculus worked. No issues there. That said, Hernandez has had a pretty lousy first half offensively. He's been better than Jason Kendall, but isn't that faint praise? At the ASB, there are 25 catchers in the NL that have higher WARs. Hernandez represents a pretty significant downgrade from Ross given the half year Ross put up (Ross has been worth 3X more than Hernandez based upon WAR). Defense of course is the wild card but really his defense can't be that good.....



Nix
Gomes

Shopping on the Island of Misfit toys (i.e. platoon guys; aging scout favorites that have been outcompeted in their previous systems) is a luxury afforded those in the lower income bracket. In other words, Nix was projected to be a roughly league average bat who plays neutral corner defense. He's been roughly just that. The Reds were in a position where that represents an upgrade....

Gomes is another guy who looks better in small stretches.

Good for Jocketty but these are guys on the margins. Managing the margins is important for a GM but these guys aren't part of a long term plan by any means.


Rhodes

Rhodes has been a high leverage arm but I'd keep my eyes on his Krate. I have a soft spot for Rhodes.


improved defense

I think a strong case could be made that this was mostly by default. I'd argue that the OF, SS, and catcher are still issues that linger from the off season and they need to be addressed if the Reds are to seriously content during the second half.


better handling of Bailey

Is there really a compelling argument for this point or is Bailey just growing up? A third trip through Lousville can change a guy....Besides, he's still got lots to prove. As an aside, interesting tattoo though. I wonder if an arrow tattoo (with a sharp tip) hurts worse to get than say a fluffy looking cartoon animal?


stability/long term plan

Don't take this as a perjorative (it's not meant to be a criticism) but at this point, I think this is begging the question. I guess, I'm arguing myself into concluding Jocketty has done more patch work that planning to date....


better draft plan; picking pitchers that fit the park best, safer picks at top when the money is big, more risk at the back of the draft when the value is greater.

Again, this one might be a little premature.


not panicking and not trading for quick fixes during the season.

The trade has been beat to death but I still think it was as much about getting rid of Lopez from the long term as it was desperation to contend.

But really, the big trade season is just warming up. Lets play this one by ear. Also, Jocketty has his hands tied by payroll which probably prevents him from making a huge blunder salary-wise. That said, Jocketty has a track record that suggests he's not going to make any rookie mistakes so you're probably right in arguing it's unlikely he'll panic.



Summation: Krivsky brought in great talent at very little cost, Jocketty brought in a long term plan to build a strong organization. Without Krivsky's talent injection, Jocketty's plan would have taken much longer to get the Reds where they are right now.

I do agree that Krivsky left the Reds a better organisation than the one he inherited. Being a GM is a tough job that requires a myriad of talents thus its a job that quickly exposes flaws. As a result GMs are often judged more on their flaws than their strengths. We sometimes forget that Krivsky made a huge contribution to the Reds. Are there better GMs? Yes. Could the Reds have been led by much worse? I think its pretty likely.

fearofpopvol1
07-13-2009, 10:48 AM
Yet, I don't remember you making a peep about it until anytime Arroyo has struggled.

Maybe I'm just not remembering that correctly, if so, preemptive apologies. Otherwise, while I recall a couple of people questioning it, I don't recall your vehement disgust at the time of the deal.

This is absolutely true. There were many (good) proposed trades for Arroyo in 2007 that FCB claimed he wouldn't make the deals for. And now that he's had a bad first half, the tables have turned.

M2
07-13-2009, 10:49 AM
I simply don't see anything constructive that Jocketty has really done since taking the job.

That's it in a nutshell.

Jocketty's plan has been to tinker around the edges until the stars align, aka The Pirate Ploy. He's pretty much become unrecognizable compared to the Walt Jocketty who put together the Cardinals teams earlier this decade.

Benihana
07-13-2009, 10:51 AM
That's it in a nutshell.

Jocketty's plan has been to tinker around the edges until the stars align, aka The Pirate Ploy. He's pretty much become unrecognizable compared to the Walt Jocketty who put together the Cardinals teams earlier this decade.

I don't disagree, but I'd at least give him the Trade Deadline before calling him a do-nothing coward. If nothing major happens in the next three weeks, I will happily agree.

mth123
07-13-2009, 10:53 AM
That's it in a nutshell.

Jocketty's plan has been to tinker around the edges until the stars align, aka The Pirate Ploy. He's pretty much become unrecognizable compared to the Walt Jocketty who put together the Cardinals teams earlier this decade.

It helps to have a Mark McGwire fueled money machine on your side.

TheNext44
07-13-2009, 11:14 AM
In hindsight Jocketty looks brilliant for not favoring the arb/picks exit strategy with Dunn given how baseball reacted to the economy last fall. At the time, I argued that comp picks would've been the more valuable play. That said, as a pitcher, Owings' most valuable skill is his ability to SLG but he might also burn 180 innings. Those innings haven't been a dramatic upgrade over replacement thus far however (FIP=5.46). Masset probably isn't as good as he's been during the first half-he's a legit major league pen arm but he's just not that rare of one. Regardless, Jocketty flipped 2 months of Dunn for what might end up being 250 innings in year one.

Concerning the economy, this might be one of those cases where Bob C was able to forecast better than the competitors and WJ leveraged this? They do this for a living so obviously they know more than we do.

Given the player sent the other way and the salary situation, this was a move where the calculus worked. No issues there. That said, Hernandez has had a pretty lousy first half offensively. He's been better than Jason Kendall, but isn't that faint praise? At the ASB, there are 25 catchers in the NL that have higher WARs. Hernandez represents a pretty significant downgrade from Ross given the half year Ross put up (Ross has been worth 3X more than Hernandez based upon WAR). Defense of course is the wild card but really his defense can't be that good.....

Shopping on the Island of Misfit toys (i.e. platoon guys; aging scout favorites that have been outcompeted in their previous systems) is a luxury afforded those in the lower income bracket. In other words, Nix was projected to be a roughly league average bat who plays neutral corner defense. He's been roughly just that. The Reds were in a position where that represents an upgrade....

Gomes is another guy who looks better in small stretches.

Good for Jocketty but these are guys on the margins. Managing the margins is important for a GM but these guys aren't part of a long term plan by any means.

Rhodes has been a high leverage arm but I'd keep my eyes on his Krate. I have a soft spot for Rhodes.

I think a strong case could be made that this was mostly by default. I'd argue that the OF, SS, and catcher are still issues that linger from the off season and they need to be addressed if the Reds are to seriously content during the second half.

Is there really a compelling argument for this point or is Bailey just growing up? A third trip through Lousville can change a guy....Besides, he's still got lots to prove. As an aside, interesting tattoo though. I wonder if an arrow tattoo (with a sharp tip) hurts worse to get than say a fluffy looking cartoon animal?

Don't take this as a perjorative (it's not meant to be a criticism) but at this point, I think this is begging the question. I guess, I'm arguing myself into concluding Jocketty has done more patch work that planning to date....

Again, this one might be a little premature.

The trade has been beat to death but I still think it was as much about getting rid of Lopez from the long term as it was desperation to contend.

But really, the big trade season is just warming up. Lets play this one by ear. Also, Jocketty has his hands tied by payroll which probably prevents him from making a huge blunder salary-wise. That said, Jocketty has a track record that suggests he's not going to make any rookie mistakes so you're probably right in arguing it's unlikely he'll panic.

I do agree that Krivsky left the Reds a better organisation than the one he inherited. Being a GM is a tough job that requires a myriad of talents thus its a job that quickly exposes flaws. As a result GMs are often judged more on their flaws than their strengths. We sometimes forget that Krivsky made a huge contribution to the Reds. Are there better GMs? Yes. Could the Reds have been led by much worse? I think its pretty likely.

Agree with most of what you say. Just a few notes.

1) Owings might be technically right at replacement level, but then I would have issue for what the definition of a replacement level #5 starter is. For the Reds this last decade it was Todd Van Poppel, Osvaldo Fernandez, Joey Hamilton, Shawn Estes, Jeff Austin, Jimmy Anderson, Dave Williams, Matt Belisle, Josh Fogg....
Owings is a significant improvement over these guys.

2) Hernandez's offensive numbers as a catcher this season are:
.281 .351 .395 .746
Right what you would expect from a catcher. Playing everyday at first seemed to wear on him. I have a feeling he will end up with similar numbers if he stays at catcher and gets a rest two nights a week.

3) I think it is selling Jockety short to say the improved defense was more by default than plan. The Reds had two outfield spots and could have filled one or two of them with guys like Abreau, Dunn, and Burrell. Those moves would have improved the offense considerabley, but Jocketty resisted, keeping to his plan of better defense. And no matter how bad Taveras looks, he has played around or better than league average CF this year, if you believe the numbers.

edabbs44
07-13-2009, 11:17 AM
3) I think it is selling Jockety short to say the improved defense was more by default than plan. The Reds had two outfield spots and could have filled one or two of them with guys like Abreau, Dunn, and Burrell. Those moves would have improved the offense considerabley, but Jocketty resisted, keeping to his plan of better defense. And no matter how bad Taveras looks, he has played around or better than league average CF this year, if you believe the numbers.

That's a really good point. And if he went for the gold and locked up a Bradley or Burrell as many wanted him to do, the offense may not have been materially improved either while adding another anchor like contract to the others already in place.

TRF
07-13-2009, 11:24 AM
When Wayne Krivsky was hired, he assessed the teams needs and made bold moves within his first three months. His two years were filled with some amazing moves. My man crush on WMP notwithstanding, he made several tremendous moves. Whether the credit for all that follows belongs to WK or not, these things happened under his watch.

WK had a GLUT at 2B, unfortunately it was a glut of dreck, so he acquired BP.

WK was saddled with Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz, so he went and traded for Arroyo.

WK had no depth at catcher, so he traded for Ross, who had a breakout season.

WK took a chance on Hamilton, enjoyed a magical season and flipped him for a young SP that then won 17 games. The Reds last 17+ game winner? Pete Schourek. Arroyo did win 15 last year, and Harang has won 16 twice, but EV improved the rotation by huge strides.

The minor leagues under WK flourished. Cueto dominated at every level, and jumped from AA to the Reds in 2008. His success is squarely on the DanO and WK regimes.

None of this is to say WK didn't make errors. I still state that "The Trade" set the Reds back 5 years. He was infatuated with relievers, and while Ryan Franklin has flourished in STL, he was not good in Cincinnati. Whether that was due to Franklin wanting to still start or the wrong coaches in place or that Duncan is apparently some sort of VooDoo God is up to the masses to decide. Esteban Yan? really?

But anyone could see the Reds most pressing need going into the 2009 season was SS. NOT ADDRESSED. Next was catcher, ADDRESSED, but an in house option was available, and is playing better than Walt's acquisition. Next was LF, ADDRESSED, but improperly. McDonald kept over Gomes because of his "D", when the offense was a serious ???. Taveras signed to play CF when the superior Dickerson was on the roster. Then moving the better defender to a position where defense isn't as important. I like CD's offensive game, especially as a CF, but as a LF, he comes up a bit short.

Walt's regime is mistake after mistake after mistake.

M2
07-13-2009, 11:26 AM
I don't disagree, but I'd at least give him the Trade Deadline before calling him a do-nothing coward. If nothing major happens in the next three weeks, I will happily agree.

I don't blame Jocketty on a personal level. IMO, his performance speaks volumes about the Reds culture.


It helps to have a Mark McGwire fueled money machine on your side.

Mac was long gone when Jocketty was pulling rabbits out of his hat prior to 2004, where the Birds got better while actually making a slight payroll cut. Also, having cash in no way means you know how to spend it. The Cardinals landed a much better CF than the Reds prior to the 2000 season (though few suspected it at the time) while spending a whole lot less money.

mth123
07-13-2009, 11:28 AM
Agree with most of what you say. Just a few notes.

1) Owings might be technically right at replacement level, but then I would have issue for what the definition of a replacement level #5 starter is. For the Reds this last decade it was Todd Van Poppel, Osvaldo Fernandez, Joey Hamilton, Shawn Estes, Jeff Austin, Jimmy Anderson, Dave Williams, Matt Belisle, Josh Fogg....
Owings is a significant improvement over these guys.

2) Hernandez's offensive numbers as a catcher this season are:
.281 .351 .395 .746
Right what you would expect from a catcher. Playing everyday at first seemed to wear on him. I have a feeling he will end up with similar numbers if he stays at catcher and gets a rest two nights a week.

3) I think it is selling Jockety short to say the improved defense was more by default than plan. The Reds had two outfield spots and could have filled one or two of them with guys like Abreau, Dunn, and Burrell. Those moves would have improved the offense considerabley, but Jocketty resisted, keeping to his plan of better defense. And no matter how bad Taveras looks, he has played around or better than league average CF this year, if you believe the numbers.

1. I agree with this. I think replacement level is a lot worse than the stats say. Guys like Owings aren't lying around for the taking when needed.

2. Hernandez is much better than David Ross and I agree that playing too much in a depleted line-up hurt his numbers. Hernandez is a fine co-catcher and he and Hanigan are a good tandem. I'd play Hanigan more often, but Hernandez is doing an OK job. If he could be had for about $6 Million less than what he's making now, I'd want him back.

3. If the conscious choice to improve the defense involved signing Willy and pushing the Dickerson/Hairston duo to LF instead of pursuing Abreu, Willingham, etc., then it is nothing to give Walt credit for. Its a horrible black mark on his resume. The substitution of Bruce for Griffey was a huge upgrade to the OF defense that would have happened under any GM and the OF defense would have been much improved even if the Reds brought Dunn back to play LF. Removing Griffey, Keppinger and Ross was obvious and the team defense was going to be significantly improved no matter what else happened.

edabbs44
07-13-2009, 11:38 AM
When Wayne Krivsky was hired, he assessed the teams needs and made bold moves within his first three months. His two years were filled with some amazing moves. My man crush on WMP notwithstanding, he made several tremendous moves. Whether the credit for all that follows belongs to WK or not, these things happened under his watch.

WK had a GLUT at 2B, unfortunately it was a glut of dreck, so he acquired BP.

WK was saddled with Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz, so he went and traded for Arroyo.

WK had no depth at catcher, so he traded for Ross, who had a breakout season.

WK took a chance on Hamilton, enjoyed a magical season and flipped him for a young SP that then won 17 games. The Reds last 17+ game winner? Pete Schourek. Arroyo did win 15 last year, and Harang has won 16 twice, but EV improved the rotation by huge strides.

The minor leagues under WK flourished. Cueto dominated at every level, and jumped from AA to the Reds in 2008. His success is squarely on the DanO and WK regimes.

None of this is to say WK didn't make errors. I still state that "The Trade" set the Reds back 5 years. He was infatuated with relievers, and while Ryan Franklin has flourished in STL, he was not good in Cincinnati. Whether that was due to Franklin wanting to still start or the wrong coaches in place or that Duncan is apparently some sort of VooDoo God is up to the masses to decide. Esteban Yan? really?

This, while largely true, is a very favorable description of Wayne's tenure. There is a lot missing, however.


But anyone could see the Reds most pressing need going into the 2009 season was SS. NOT ADDRESSED. Next was catcher, ADDRESSED, but an in house option was available, and is playing better than Walt's acquisition. Next was LF, ADDRESSED, but improperly. McDonald kept over Gomes because of his "D", when the offense was a serious ???. Taveras signed to play CF when the superior Dickerson was on the roster. Then moving the better defender to a position where defense isn't as important. I like CD's offensive game, especially as a CF, but as a LF, he comes up a bit short.

Walt's regime is mistake after mistake after mistake.

This is equally as unfavorable as the other paragraph was favorable. Walt was blasted this offseason for not signing guys such as Furcal, Bradley and Burrell. Now he is blasted for not acquiring the mythical successful SS and LFers who were largely available for peanuts. I wonder what these threads would look like if he listened to the masses and gave multi-year contracts to the 0.682 OPSing, 5 for 9 SB Furcal and/or the .760 OPSing, umpire berating and suspension receiving Bradley.

TRF
07-13-2009, 11:51 AM
Bradley certainly wouldn't have been my choice, and he doesn't fit the profile for a WK acquisition either. I was for Furcal, knowing he has health issues. WK would likely have targeted Brandon Wood. That's a guess on my part, but it's a similar situation to BP in Cleveland in that he was a position player with no chance of playing, stuck at AAA. For as much as people are saying Juan Rivera wasn't leaving LAA, no offer was made. Rivera was a FA, and offers are made public. All Rivera would have cost the Reds was money. Not signing WT, Hairston and Lincoln would have just about covered it.

It isn't hindsight when you are screaming for it to be done.

bucksfan2
07-13-2009, 11:57 AM
Bradley certainly wouldn't have been my choice, and he doesn't fit the profile for a WK acquisition either. I was for Furcal, knowing he has health issues. WK would likely have targeted Brandon Wood. That's a guess on my part, but it's a similar situation to BP in Cleveland in that he was a position player with no chance of playing, stuck at AAA. For as much as people are saying Juan Rivera wasn't leaving LAA, no offer was made. Rivera was a FA, and offers are made public. All Rivera would have cost the Reds was money. Not signing WT, Hairston and Lincoln would have just about covered it.

It isn't hindsight when you are screaming for it to be done.

Was Brandon Wood released? WK didn't target BPhil, rather the Indians released BPhil. Completely different to me.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 11:59 AM
The teams making movements in the standings the last several seasons (06-09) have been teams whose farms have put them on the map: Twins, TB, Brewers, Giants, Rockies.

Every other team at the top has some combination of farm, trade, and crazy cash: Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, Cards.

One of the first set of teams advanced their timeline tremendously with one very cagey trade (TB--Garza and SS for Dmitri Young's brother).

The above trade has been, among the pauper clubs, the only earth-shattering, paradigm-shifting deal in the last two seasons. Every other pauper club has waited patiently for their farm. Unless you're the Yankees and you can take on salary, a trade is not likely to do much for your team in the near-term.

It's just the reality we're dealing with right now in baseball. Trading isn't what it used to be; GMs are being very conservative with their prospects and really only tinkering at the margins. I think it's possible that Jocketty can't win in an environment without fierce trading.

Edit: forgot the Haren deal and the Bedard deal. Still, that's three blockbusters in three offseasons and two deadlines.

princeton
07-13-2009, 12:01 PM
Was Brandon Wood released? WK didn't target BPhil, rather the Indians released BPhil. Completely different to me.


Cleveland DFA'd him; WK swooped in with a Jeff Stevens offer before he could go on waivers. I doubt that we were the only suitors. great move

Benihana
07-13-2009, 12:01 PM
WK didn't target BPhil, rather the Indians released BPhil. Completely different to me.

Incorrect. Krivsky traded a PTBNL (Jeff Stevens) for Brandon Phillips. He was targeted.

TheNext44
07-13-2009, 12:04 PM
Bradley certainly wouldn't have been my choice, and he doesn't fit the profile for a WK acquisition either. I was for Furcal, knowing he has health issues. WK would likely have targeted Brandon Wood. That's a guess on my part, but it's a similar situation to BP in Cleveland in that he was a position player with no chance of playing, stuck at AAA. For as much as people are saying Juan Rivera wasn't leaving LAA, no offer was made. Rivera was a FA, and offers are made public. All Rivera would have cost the Reds was money. Not signing WT, Hairston and Lincoln would have just about covered it.

It isn't hindsight when you are screaming for it to be done.

From Fay 12/17/08


--The Reds continue to negotiate with Juan Rivera but it doesn’t sound like a deal is in the immediate offing. “I talked to his agent today,” Jocketty said. “But there’s really nothing new.”

There was no offer, but maybe because the agent said it wasn't going to happen. No one knows why the Rivera did not sign with the Reds, but it was not because of lack of interest nor effort on Jocketty's part.

TheNext44
07-13-2009, 12:06 PM
Incorrect. Krivsky traded a PTBNL (Jeff Stevens) for Brandon Phillips. He was targeted.

This was after he was DFA'd, so you both are correct. :)

Boss-Hog
07-13-2009, 12:20 PM
For as much as people are saying Juan Rivera wasn't leaving LAA, no offer was made. Rivera was a FA, and offers are made public. All Rivera would have cost the Reds was money. Not signing WT, Hairston and Lincoln would have just about covered it.

It isn't hindsight when you are screaming for it to be done.
Johnny Footstool was one of the very few people I recall this past offseason hoping the Reds signed Juan Rivera (that's also assuming he'd be open to the idea). The general consensus was that he isn't very good and not to go after him, so I agree that this is some serious revisionist history.

Mario-Rijo
07-13-2009, 12:24 PM
Johnny Footstool was one of the very few people I recall this past offseason hoping the Reds signed Juan Rivera (that's also assuming he'd be open to the idea). The general consensus was that he isn't very good and not to go after him, so I agree that this is some serious revisionist history.

I don't know about that Boss I can't say TRF was or wasn't but I sure was wanting him and so were others. Heck I was even all for trading for the guy prior to him becoming a FA.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 12:24 PM
Johnny Footstool was one of the very few people I recall this past offseason hoping the Reds signed Juan Rivera (that's also assuming he'd be open to the idea). The general consensus was that he isn't very good and not to go after him, so I agree that this is some serious revisionist history.

There were a few notable others, but you're right, it was an extreme minority.

Boss-Hog
07-13-2009, 12:29 PM
I don't know about that Boss I can't say TRF was or wasn't but I sure was wanting him and so were others. Heck I was even all for trading for the guy prior to him becoming a FA.
Check out this (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=73191) thread.

Another (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=73199) one (with a poll) indicates that more people were receptive to the idea than I imagined (based on the first thread), but that was mostly based on the premise that he could be acquired cheaply (which wasn't going to happen - at least not for the price(s) consistently mentioned in the second thread).

TRF
07-13-2009, 12:30 PM
I was indifferent as I thought LF was a red herring to mask inactivity at acquiring a SS. Rivera was an option, and I can't really complain about the Nix/Gomes platoon other than it took a month to realize McD wasn't the answer.

But really, LF was only a priority, a real priority once he signed WT to play CF. That's when the Reds needed a power bat. Had he NOT done that, LF is a non-issue and the real focus would/should have been SS.

So, yeah, Walt screwed the pooch on that one.

VR
07-13-2009, 12:37 PM
2. Hernandez is much better than David Ross and I agree that playing too much in a depleted line-up hurt his numbers. Hernandez is a fine co-catcher and he and Hanigan are a good tandem. I'd play Hanigan more often, but Hernandez is doing an OK job. If he could be had for about $6 Million less than what he's making now, I'd want him back.

What measurements are being used to make that determination?

TRF
07-13-2009, 12:42 PM
David Ross in 2009
90 AB's .278 .375 .533 .908

Ramon Hernandez in 2009
269 AB's .253 .332 .361 .693

Ryan Hanigan in 2009
142 AB's .338 .428 .408 .836

I think a strong case could be made that a Hanigan/Ross platoon might be stronger than Hernandez/Hanigan.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 12:43 PM
What measurements are being used to make that determination?

As a defensive catcher it's not even close. One guy happened to have his career year with the bat fall in Cincy. It's been garbage since.

VR
07-13-2009, 12:45 PM
As a defensive catcher it's not even close. One guy happened to have his career year with the bat fall in Cincy. It's been garbage since.

Based on.....

TRF
07-13-2009, 12:47 PM
As a defensive catcher it's not even close. One guy happened to have his career year with the bat fall in Cincy. It's been garbage since.

Ahem. look up just a tad.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 12:47 PM
Based on.....

Based on watching both of them. Ross was a poor catcher. Atlanta thinks so much of him, he's only gotten 90 ABs.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 12:48 PM
Ahem. look up just a tad.

90 ABs is pretty meaningless.

Cf. Paul Bako's first 100 ABs in 2008.

jojo
07-13-2009, 12:49 PM
Based on watching both of them. Ross was a poor catcher. Atlanta thinks so much of him, he's only gotten 90 ABs.

I don't think anyone was arguing that he's better than Brian McCann....

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 12:51 PM
I don't think anyone was arguing that he's better than Brian McCann....

It's reasonably telling though, that even though McCann was on the DL this season, Ross has only gotten 90 ABs.

VR
07-13-2009, 12:52 PM
Based on watching both of them. Ross was a poor catcher. Atlanta thinks so much of him, he's only gotten 90 ABs.

I'm sure Brian McCann has something to do with it.

I agree Hernandez 'looks' better behind the plate. The stats just say otherwise.

redsfandan
07-13-2009, 12:53 PM
If I recall correctly, part of the reason for acquiring Hernandez was to help Cueto and Volquez. I can't really fault Jocketty on that.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 12:56 PM
The stats just say otherwise.

I'm all ears.

jojo
07-13-2009, 12:59 PM
It's reasonably telling though, that even though McCann was on the DL this season, Ross has only gotten 90 ABs.

Only 6 PAs have gone to an Atlanta catcher not named McCann/Ross this season.

VR
07-13-2009, 12:59 PM
I'm all ears.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2009&seasonType=2&split=78&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=catcherCaughtStealingPct&qualified=0

Unfortunately, not even close.....if outs and bases are important, that is.

edabbs44
07-13-2009, 01:03 PM
Give me a break on David Ross.

FYI...Juan Castro has an .834 OPS with LA this year in 71 ABs. Wayne is an idiot for letting him get away.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 01:05 PM
Only 6 PAs have gone to an Atlanta catcher not named McCann/Ross this season.

Sure, but Ross got @ 45 ABs in one two-week stretch when he was the starting catcher for the DL'ed McCann.

Outside of that two-week stretch when the Braves really didn't have a choice but to play Ross, @ 45 ABs have been spread out over 8 weeks of playing.

That's how valuable Ross is to them. Yeah, McCann is a strong first-stringer. But that's basically one start a week for Ross.

IslandRed
07-13-2009, 01:09 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2009&seasonType=2&split=78&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=catcherCaughtStealingPct&qualified=0

Unfortunately, not even close.....if outs and bases are important, that is.

Cool. Now, show us all the posts making a good analytical case for David Ross before the season started. :p: You gotta admit, it would have required some serious clairvoyance to see a good season coming.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 01:11 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2009&seasonType=2&split=78&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=catcherCaughtStealingPct&qualified=0

Unfortunately, not even close.....if outs and bases are important, that is.

I guess I'm not seeing it beyond CS.

Patrick Bateman
07-13-2009, 01:11 PM
Sure, but Ross got @ 45 ABs in one two-week stretch when he was the starting catcher for the DL'ed McCann.

Outside of that two-week stretch when the Braves really didn't have a choice but to play Ross, @ 45 ABs have been spread out over 8 weeks of playing.

That's how valuable Ross is to them. Yeah, McCann is a strong first-stringer. But that's basically one start a week for Ross.

Is this even worth arguing (not just directed at you FCB)?

The guy is a clear cut back-up catcher... with very inconsistent hitting stretches. He's not going to be the .900 OPS guy that he's been this year, and his first for the Reds. But even with the holes in his swing, he should probably be around .730ish. His defensive ability is probably, for argument's sake, a little below average.

The definition of blah.... dude shouldn't even sniff a discussion of GM evaluation.

VR
07-13-2009, 01:12 PM
Cool. Now, show us all the posts making a good analytical case for David Ross before the season started. :p: You gotta admit, it would have required some serious clairvoyance to see a good season coming.

For sure. Ross forced the Red's hand with his wildly inconsistent play.

TRF
07-13-2009, 01:13 PM
Cool. Now, show us all the posts making a good analytical case for David Ross before the season started. :p: You gotta admit, it would have required some serious clairvoyance to see a good season coming.

Not really if you can assume he was 100% healthy.

Which he wasn't in 2008, and I don't think he was overly healthy in 2007 either. In 2008 when healthy he did get on base, but the power was gone. Now in 2009 he was certainly worth a flyer as a backup, and one could argue that he's one of the better offensive backup catchers in the game.

jojo
07-13-2009, 01:13 PM
During the first half, Ross's bat was worth roughly 6 runs above a major league average bat while Hernandez's was worth roughly -6 runs below a major league average bat.

Catcher defense is a tough one and I'd try to hedge bets as much as possible on the issue...

Here's a comparison though:

Ross: 47% CS, 5 PB, 0 E
RH: 34% CS, 0 PB, 1 E

Looking at them from an extremely low resolution prism, I'm not seeing how Hernandez's defense could close the gap between their bats substantially.

Now, keep in mind that I don't know the exact rationale Jocketty used for targeting Hernandez. That said, RaH's defensive reputation was very poor following his tenure in Baltimore and my guess is that Jocketty considered RaH an everyday catcher and it was expected that a large part of RaH's value would be derived from his offensive ability for a catcher....

VR
07-13-2009, 01:14 PM
I guess I'm not seeing it beyond CS.




Where are you seeing RH outperforming?

jojo
07-13-2009, 01:16 PM
Is this even worth arguing (not just directed at you FCB)?

I think the point that is getting lost a bit is that Hernandez hasn't been all that valuable.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 01:17 PM
Where are you seeing RH outperforming?

Receiving and retrieving outfield assists.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 01:18 PM
I think the point that is getting lost a bit is that Hernandez hasn't been all that valuable.

Not sure why David Ross is the measuring stick for anything, however.

fearofpopvol1
07-13-2009, 01:19 PM
I think the point that is getting lost a bit is that Hernandez hasn't been all that valuable.

After seeing him live this past weekend at Citifield...I'd tend to agree. Every tiem I looked up a Met was swiping a base. Now granted...he can't fully control what happens in those situations...but I wasn't blown away by his arm.

jojo
07-13-2009, 01:20 PM
Not sure why David Ross is the measuring stick for anything, however.

But that's the whole point..... no one is pining for Ross and given his bat as a backup catcher he's been worth roughly 3 times more than RaH so far this season with the caveat concerning the valuation of catcher defense.

VR
07-13-2009, 01:23 PM
Receiving and retrieving outfield assists.

Didn't see that one on there.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 01:24 PM
But that's the whole point..... no one is pining for Ross and given his bat as a backup catcher he's been worth roughly 3 times more than RaH so far this season with the caveat concerning the valuation of catcher defense.

Again, check out Paul Bako's first 90 ABs in 2008.

I'll concede that Hernandez's bat has been less than I expected, but really, it's being highly disingenous to say Ross's bat is worth 3 times Hernandez's.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2009, 01:25 PM
It's just the reality we're dealing with right now in baseball. Trading isn't what it used to be; GMs are being very conservative with their prospects and really only tinkering at the margins. I think it's possible that Jocketty can't win in an environment without fierce trading.

There's a lot more information out there on minor leaguers now than at any time in the past. More video footage, more statistics, more scouting reports, etc. It's getting harder to pass off straw as gold and especially getting harder to pry top talent away from organzations -- teams seem, at least anecdotally, to have a better grip on the players in their own organization than ever before.

It's a different baseball than the one Jocketty succeeded in -- it demands you play the long game (development, small deals incrementally adding up to improved talent) when building a foundation for success.

FWIW, I think it's the height of insanity to judge Jocketty at this juncture. He's had less than 2 seasons to work, and the club is already better than we've seen at any point since 2000 -- especially given the players producing on this club aren't fly-by-night reclamation projects expected to explode any minute now. There's real talent on the team for a change.

jojo
07-13-2009, 01:25 PM
For the record, I do enjoy watching throws to home...actually get caught.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 01:26 PM
Didn't see that one on there.

Yeah, catcher defense is reducible to what the ESPN catcher "stats" say.

I'm going to start judging pitchers by ERA alone and hitters by average too.

edabbs44
07-13-2009, 01:30 PM
Ramon's stats took a noticeable dip (.746 OPS vs .604 OPS) when playing 1B.

jojo
07-13-2009, 01:34 PM
Again, check out Paul Bako's first 90 ABs in 2008.

I'll concede that Hernandez's bat has been less than I expected, but really, it's being highly disingenous to say Ross's bat is worth 3 times Hernandez's.

The argument is that Ross' bat has been worth more to this point in the season. I don't think anyone thinks Ross would continue to post an OPS over .900.

I don't agree that my comments have been disingenuous at all.

Truthfully, going forward, it's not like RaH's bat is projected to be significantly more valuable than Ross'.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 01:38 PM
The argument is that Ross' bat has been worth more to this point in the season. I don't think anyone thinks Ross would continue to post an OPS over .900.

I don't agree that my comments have been disingenuous at all.

Truthfully, going forward, it's not like RaH's bat is projected to be significantly more valuable than Ross'.

Your point then is 90 ABs at .900 OPS is three times more valuable than 240 ABs at .700?

How is that? It's an honest question.

redsfandan
07-13-2009, 01:51 PM
I'm not going to comment on Hernandez vs Ross beyond my ONE post. Instead I wanted to throw this out cuz I don't think it's been mentioned.

Both Krivsky and Jocketty have had two drafts while they were GM for the Reds. While it's hard to judge the results within only a few years I think it makes sense to use the 1st pick for someone that you're reasonably sure will be able to help the major league club within two years. Jocketty has two years before we know if he accomplished that but it looks like at least one of his 1st rounders should be able to do that. Possibly both. Time will tell. But I think it's safe to say that neither of Krivsky's 1st rounders will help the Reds within 3 years of when they were drafted, much less two.

Patrick Bateman
07-13-2009, 01:54 PM
I think the point that is getting lost a bit is that Hernandez hasn't been all that valuable.

Definitely... but I found the attempted valuation of David Ross annoying:lol:

I don't have a major issue with Ramon Hernandez. After clearing out Freel's salary in the deal, and the point that no valuable assets were dealt in the trade to acquire Hernandez. He's been a decent enough catcher that projects well enough for the rest of the year for the trade to work, even if other guys could have been had cheaper.

The biggest knock on Jocketty in my book, is that LF, SS, and CF were left completely out to dry in the offseason with basically no reasonable effort to cover the positions, or at least add some intriguing cheap upside names to the mix. That's more than a third of the line-up with dreck getting regular at-bats. That's been well documented so I wont focus on that point, but I think the problem with Jocketty has been the lack of moves made rather than the ones he has made.

He has made a number of more minor type of moves, and like Krivsky, some have worked, some have bombed, but thinking large scale, there was just no real effort to dramatically improve the team by more than the usual roster shuffling. Obviously he hasn't been on the job very long, so it may be unfair to say this, but Dan O'Brien could have just as easily done what Jocketty has done during his tenure.

Patrick Bateman
07-13-2009, 01:57 PM
I guess we disagree on what the perception of Arroyo was last offseason.

This is all guesswork but one possibility would be the timing. Who wanted to take Arroyo, owed $20ishMM over the next two years after his ERA rose 1.5 runs in the last 3 years? Same thing with Harang, who was coming off the worst year of his life and 2nd half arm soreness? When you see what Wolf and Looper got last offseason as free agents it makes sense that there would be little to no interest in taking those contracts at those rates, especially when factoring in giving up anyone of value.

How about Cordero, owed $36MM over the next three years when a guy like KRod (7 years his junior, coming off the save record) signed for the same price?

Maybe they could have gotten rid of one of these guys, but my guess is that they would have had to eaten a large amt of money. And Bob is probably sick of doing that.

I think that's a pretty fair counter. But the logic there would be mostly based on just the one season in a vacuum. Both pitchers have largely had success in the past, especially Harang, while Arroyo had also come on reasonably strong in the last half of the season. Based on the shortage of pitching, I think it's reasonable to expect that those salaries could have been moved, albeit perhaps for a less than stellar return. But if you were of the opinion that these contracts were prohibitive long term, you probably wouldn't worry about the return so much as wiping the slates clean for the future. Needless to say, I don't think Jocketty was serious about moving the contracts, and based on his moves, seems to continue the trend of being between rebuilding and contention.

jojo
07-13-2009, 01:59 PM
Your point then is 90 ABs at .900 OPS is three times more valuable than 240 ABs at .700?

How is that? It's an honest question.

Because the difference between their bats equates to about 12 runs or 1.2 wins relative to a major league average bat.

redsfandan
07-13-2009, 02:16 PM
Arroyo was a great acquisition for the price. But he had a career year in '06 and his track record didn't indicate that he would be able to put up those kind of stats consistently. And he hasn't. Krivsky then signed Arroyo to a contract extension in Feb. '07 (per Cots). That was after only ONE season with the Reds. But Krivsky wanted to lock him up despite the fact that Arroyo still had two years left on his deal. What was the rush??
Krivsky paid when Arroyo's stock was at it's highest. If he had waited another year he could've paid a more reasonable price for him or Arroyo would've been gone after last year. Instead the Reds have to find a taker for an overpaid pitcher.

I think it's a little soon to say that Jocketty won't try to move that contract especially now that Bailey can replace him.

TRF
07-13-2009, 02:19 PM
Bailey I consider to be a Krivsky AND Jocketty mistake. Both GM's rushed him when he should have been developing in the minors. Now he's out of options and his value because of that is low.

F for both GM's on Bailey.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2009, 02:22 PM
Bailey I consider to be a Krivsky AND Jocketty mistake. Both GM's rushed him when he should have been developing in the minors. Now he's out of options and his value because of that is low.

F for both GM's on Bailey.

Once Bailey was added to the 40 man (pre-Jocketty), he was burning an option every year he wasn't in the bigs.

I fail to see how Jocketty "rushed" Bailey when his clock was already ticking when Jocketty inherited the team.

TheNext44
07-13-2009, 02:31 PM
Definitely... but I found the attempted valuation of David Ross annoying:lol:

I don't have a major issue with Ramon Hernandez. After clearing out Freel's salary in the deal, and the point that no valuable assets were dealt in the trade to acquire Hernandez. He's been a decent enough catcher that projects well enough for the rest of the year for the trade to work, even if other guys could have been had cheaper.

The biggest knock on Jocketty in my book, is that LF, SS, and CF were left completely out to dry in the offseason with basically no reasonable effort to cover the positions, or at least add some intriguing cheap upside names to the mix. That's more than a third of the line-up with dreck getting regular at-bats. That's been well documented so I wont focus on that point, but I think the problem with Jocketty has been the lack of moves made rather than the ones he has made.

He has made a number of more minor type of moves, and like Krivsky, some have worked, some have bombed, but thinking large scale, there was just no real effort to dramatically improve the team by more than the usual roster shuffling. Obviously he hasn't been on the job very long, so it may be unfair to say this, but Dan O'Brien could have just as easily done what Jocketty has done during his tenure.

Completely agree with the first sentence, completely disagree with the last.

Ross is an average backup catcher to catch one day a week. The Reds were looking for a starter who can play 4-5 times a week. Maybe Hernandez is not that guy, but Ross certainly is not that guy. Any Reds fan could tell you that.

But Dan O'Brien could not have done what Jocketty has done, and that is not make any stinker trade.

O'Brien had no idea how the game is played or what it takes for a team to win. He was completely overwhelmed and overmatched at his job. Let's go over a list of some of the stuff he did:

Signed Milton
Traded for R. Ortiz
Traded the Reds only good pitcher Reitsma to the Braves for Jung Bong and Bubba Nelson.
Traded for Tony Womak
Signed John VanderWall
Signed Jason Romano and wanted him to be the Reds new leftfielder.
Traded Todd Jones for Anderson Machado who he then kept on the 40 man roster for two years at the expense of real prospects.
Released Danny Graves when he still had trade value.
Made every minor league hitter take the first pitch
Told all minor league pitchers to "pitch to contact."

I could go on.

You make a fair point about Jocketty not doing much, but trust me, this team would be worse than the Nats if O'Brien were still in charge.

edabbs44
07-13-2009, 02:32 PM
I think that's a pretty fair counter. But the logic there would be mostly based on just the one season in a vacuum. Both pitchers have largely had success in the past, especially Harang, while Arroyo had also come on reasonably strong in the last half of the season. Based on the shortage of pitching, I think it's reasonable to expect that those salaries could have been moved, albeit perhaps for a less than stellar return. But if you were of the opinion that these contracts were prohibitive long term, you probably wouldn't worry about the return so much as wiping the slates clean for the future. Needless to say, I don't think Jocketty was serious about moving the contracts, and based on his moves, seems to continue the trend of being between rebuilding and contention.

I just don't think there was much (if any) f a market for those guys due to the circumstances of last offseason.

Patrick Bateman
07-13-2009, 02:36 PM
I just don't think there was much (if any) f a market for those guys due to the circumstances of last offseason.

Notwithstanding, Harang has bounced back and could be traded, for value at that. Cordero's continued success means that he could be moved for value, although the Reds might have to eat a bit of salary. Arroyo would be the obvious stinker, but he wasn't exactly unmoveable until this year.

redsfandan
07-13-2009, 02:51 PM
Deal Harang OR Arroyo. Not both. Personally I'd prefer to keep Harang. And Arroyo may be more moveable as less is left of that contract. To move Cordero right now we'd have to eat so much of that contract that it wouldn't be worth it.

TRF
07-13-2009, 02:54 PM
Once Bailey was added to the 40 man (pre-Jocketty), he was burning an option every year he wasn't in the bigs.

I fail to see how Jocketty "rushed" Bailey when his clock was already ticking when Jocketty inherited the team.

Simple. The initial fail was Krivsky's in starting his clock. Jocketty compounded it by promoting him when he wasn't ready and setting back his development. The initial fail is the biggest problem, but it could have been mitigated by a consistent development approach. Bailey COULD have been ready this year at the start. He never should have thrown a pitch as a Red in 2008. He probably shouldn't have thrown a pitch as a Red in 2009 until later in the year. 2010 is make or break as a Red. It would have been nice to know that he'd be at least as good as Cueto last year. Cueto on the other hand took an Adam Dunn approach to the minors, and dominated each level. He might have been better served pitching 2008 at AAA, but he's just a better pitcher at this point in his career.

edabbs44
07-13-2009, 02:59 PM
Notwithstanding, Harang has bounced back and could be traded, for value at that. Cordero's continued success means that he could be moved for value, although the Reds might have to eat a bit of salary. Arroyo would be the obvious stinker, but he wasn't exactly unmoveable until this year.

We'll have to agree to disagree, since I think that Arroyo became virtually untradeable once that extension was signed and Cordero has always been pretty untradeable unless Cincy agreed to eat a significant portion of his salary.

Patrick Bateman
07-13-2009, 03:06 PM
We'll have to agree to disagree, since I think that Arroyo became virtually untradeable once that extension was signed and Cordero has always been pretty untradeable unless Cincy agreed to eat a significant portion of his salary.

I don't know, it just seems that that contracts of the Cincy pitchers weren't out of line with the pitchers signed in free agency (ex. Kawakimi, Fuentes, Burnett, Lowe, Moyer, Ol. Perez, Wood, etc.) Based on their production, I think there contracts would be similar to that of what would have been available in the free agent market.

Benihana
07-13-2009, 03:07 PM
We'll have to agree to disagree, since I think that Arroyo became virtually untradeable once that extension was signed and Cordero has always been pretty untradeable unless Cincy agreed to eat a significant portion of his salary.

I actually don't think Cordero, with his current performance, is still untradeable. And Arroyo was very tradeable last spring (and before that.)

redsfandan
07-13-2009, 03:15 PM
Cordero makes $25m over the next 2 years (including the 2012 buyout). Who would take on that contract? Most likely a big market team. LA? They could use some help for the rest of the year but NOT for 2 more years at that price. I just think it will be very hard to find a taker right now.

edabbs44
07-13-2009, 03:20 PM
I actually don't think Cordero, with his current performance, is still untradeable. And Arroyo was very tradeable last spring (and before that.)

I don't see anyone needing a closer so badly that they would take on the richest contract ever for a reliever, and the last 2.5 years of it as well for a guy in his mid-30s.

And regarding Arroyo, the discussion is around whether or not Walt could have traded Arroyo this offseason, not before last spring. But since I brought that part up, the tradeableness of Arroyo took a huge hit due to the fact that there was zero need to extend him if you were looking to trade him prior to this season. That's because he was already locked up until this season.

Even if Arroyo was tradeable before last spring, he was 100x more tradeable if he didn't have the extension. And if Wayne thought that there was a possibility that he'd want to trade him before that point, then that puts the extension into even more question.

M2
07-13-2009, 03:31 PM
The teams making movements in the standings the last several seasons (06-09) have been teams whose farms have put them on the map: Twins, TB, Brewers, Giants, Rockies.

Yes and no.

The Twins are a bit unique. They've been living off the farm for nine straight seasons. The Rockies are mostly homegrown too, but I'm not sold that franchise is looking at any kind of sustained success.

Most of Tampa Bay's starting team and pitching staff came from somewhere else. The Brewers used a number of acquired talents to finally break .500 and make the playoffs - in particular adding C.C. Sabathia and Mike Cameron in 2008. The Giants only have a handful of in-house kids making a significant contribution at this moment. BTW, you're 100% right that if the Reds had taken Lincecum it likely would have transformed the franchise - the Giants are winning with an offense that makes the Reds look positively brawny. You can only pull that off with a superace in tow.

The Reds recently got a lot from the farm too. It usually takes more than that. I agree the Reds are mostly sitting around waiting for lightning to strike. IMO, it's not very smart. The club could spend another decade going nowhere just as easily as it could luck into the right combination.

TRF
07-13-2009, 03:40 PM
It's been dreged to death and is OT, but having Lincecum likely means an OF of Hamilton/Dickerson/Bruce and a rotation of Lincecum/Harang/Cueto/Arroyo/Owings.

That'd be decent.

VR
07-13-2009, 04:27 PM
Yeah, catcher defense is reducible to what the ESPN catcher "stats" say.

I'm going to start judging pitchers by ERA alone and hitters by average too.


Let me try your argument....


"Yeah, catcher defense is reducible to what the eyes see.

I'm going to start judging pitchers by how they look."

Sounds pretty silly, eh?

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 04:39 PM
Let me try your argument....


"Yeah, catcher defense is reducible to what the eyes see.

I'm going to start judging pitchers by how they look."

Sounds pretty silly, eh?

We've gone over this a dozen times: defensive metrics--especially for catcher--are so lacking as to be not more efficacious than judging by eyes. It's the most difficult position to judge by stats. And really, some "stats" really aren't better than watching a catcher.

You point to CS; okay, I can just as easily point to Hernandez's better ZR or to Hernandez's 0 passed balls to Ross's 5 in much less playing time.

We're not at an impasse here. We've both only looked at a sliver of a catcher's skills.

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 11:24 AM
I realize that this post will probably end up being slightly controversial, but bear with me for a second:

Wayne's rep as Reds GM has been that he was good at bringing in talent to the organization and as one who picked up some gems for next to nothing.

One thing that I noted throughout his tenure was that the names of those positive contributors seemed to keep changing. David Ross used to be one of those bargain pickups until he was exposed. Keppinger was another acquisition which provided Wayne with some street cred. He then took a fall, whether it was related to his knee or not. Maloney was another when he took the Reds minor league system by storm. That really hasn't worked out with the big league club. I believe the Coutlangus pickup also would apply here.

These were somewhat minor transactions, but still fed the theory that Wayne was good at finding the diamond in the rough. The timeline was something like this: The acquisiton happens, performs well in the beginning, the player gets hyped, and then the player slowly fades away. But, in the back of some people's minds, does Wayne still get "credit" for these transactions?

Now, let's look at some of the bigger additions for which Wayne has really gained accolades for:

Arroyo - started off like gangbusters, great first year and, for the price, the trade worked out tremendously. Has steadily declined since 2006 and is now not doing very well at all with a pretty bad contract.

Burton - similar to Arroyo, had a good end of year in 2007, had a great year last year and struggled to start the year before a demotion to the minors.

Hamilton - a real once in a lifetime opportunity that Wayne cashed in, played well in PT duty his one year here and was shipped to Texas for the next guy on the list.

Volquez - probably the one I'll take a lot of heat on, but he was lights out pre-ASB last year (12-3 with a 2.29 ERA vs 5-3 with a 4.60 ERA) and is now on the DL after a start similar to last year's 2nd half (4-2 with a 4.35 ERA).

Phillips - Been solid throughout but has taken a step back from the hysteria of 2007.

So, what's the point of this? Here's my question: Does Wayne's reputation as bringing in a lot of talent to the organization hold water due to the seemingly stunted production of many of his positive additions? Arroyo has long seemed to be Wayne's #1 guy and has been the poster child for the Krivsky Era, but is that warranted knowing what we know now? Look at what Volquez has done since last year's ASB (2/3s of his tenure here) and think "What if that is his norm and not what we saw in his first 3 months?"

Just another way of looking at things. Hopefully I articulated my point well enough, but I'd be interested to hear what others think about this.

Cedric
07-15-2009, 11:41 AM
Defensive metrics are just worthless. I always like to chime in and make sure that's known :)

TRF
07-15-2009, 11:44 AM
I realize that this post will probably end up being slightly controversial, but bear with me for a second:

Wayne's rep as Reds GM has been that he was good at bringing in talent to the organization and as one who picked up some gems for next to nothing.

One thing that I noted throughout his tenure was that the names of those positive contributors seemed to keep changing. David Ross used to be one of those bargain pickups until he was exposed. Keppinger was another acquisition which provided Wayne with some street cred. He then took a fall, whether it was related to his knee or not. Maloney was another when he took the Reds minor league system by storm. That really hasn't worked out with the big league club. I believe the Coutlangus pickup also would apply here.

These were somewhat minor transactions, but still fed the theory that Wayne was good at finding the diamond in the rough. The timeline was something like this: The acquisiton happens, performs well in the beginning, the player gets hyped, and then the player slowly fades away. But, in the back of some people's minds, does Wayne still get "credit" for these transactions?

Now, let's look at some of the bigger additions for which Wayne has really gained accolades for:

Arroyo - started off like gangbusters, great first year and, for the price, the trade worked out tremendously. Has steadily declined since 2006 and is now not doing very well at all with a pretty bad contract.

Burton - similar to Arroyo, had a good end of year in 2007, had a great year last year and struggled to start the year before a demotion to the minors.

Hamilton - a real once in a lifetime opportunity that Wayne cashed in, played well in PT duty his one year here and was shipped to Texas for the next guy on the list.

Volquez - probably the one I'll take a lot of heat on, but he was lights out pre-ASB last year (12-3 with a 2.29 ERA vs 5-3 with a 4.60 ERA) and is now on the DL after a start similar to last year's 2nd half (4-2 with a 4.35 ERA).

Phillips - Been solid throughout but has taken a step back from the hysteria of 2007.

So, what's the point of this? Here's my question: Does Wayne's reputation as bringing in a lot of talent to the organization hold water due to the seemingly stunted production of many of his positive additions? Arroyo has long seemed to be Wayne's #1 guy and has been the poster child for the Krivsky Era, but is that warranted knowing what we know now? Look at what Volquez has done since last year's ASB (2/3s of his tenure here) and think "What if that is his norm and not what we saw in his first 3 months?"

Just another way of looking at things. Hopefully I articulated my point well enough, but I'd be interested to hear what others think about this.

To me its simple. What did the Reds look like the day before WK was hired, and did anyone on that team have a future as a Red long term? turns out, the answer was no at CF, 2B, SS, 1B, C and at least 4 SP's

Now look at the Reds the day before WJ took over. Still some holes, but this time the holes are RF, CF, SS C and 1 SP. CF would eventually be filled in house that first season (Dickerson) Jr. was at the end of his contract, so RF needed addressing. LF is more of a sticky issue as Dunn COULD have been retained. SS was addressed by WK, but injuries happen. Had AGon not been injured I believe he would have provided league average offense and defense for the term of his contract. Just bad luck.

Now look at the Reds today. Bruce's and EE's injury were both bad luck. SS still hasn't been addressed. CF has been a disaster. LF has been adequate, but the FO still talks the RH power bat, and really that's the only place to put one.

Yeah, I'd say the moves and non moves WK did have been greater thus far than anything Jocketty has done. No GM is immune from the bad trade/signing. Think STL might want a do over on the Haren/Mulder trade?

Jpup
07-15-2009, 11:46 AM
Phillips - Been solid throughout but has taken a step back from the hysteria of 2007.

Phillips

OPS
2007 .816
2009 .814

jojo
07-15-2009, 11:48 AM
Defensive metrics are just worthless. I always like to chime in and make sure that's known :)

A growing number of major league teams disagree with that opinion and ones who don't are doing things like trading for Yuniesky Betancourt..... :cool:

Jpup
07-15-2009, 11:49 AM
A growing number of major league teams disagree with that opinion and ones who don't are doing things like trading for Yuniesky Betancourt..... :cool:

I thought the Royals were stat dudes?

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 11:54 AM
Phillips

OPS
2007 .816
2009 .814

2008 OPS

1st half - .798
2nd half - .666

Season isn't over.

Jpup
07-15-2009, 11:56 AM
2008 OPS

1st half - .798
2nd half - .666

Season isn't over.

My eyes tell me that he is a better player this year than ever. The numbers say that he is the same. He had a great June and has been pretty good in July so far. I believe he'll end up closer to .850 than .750.

bucksfan2
07-15-2009, 11:56 AM
I realize that this post will probably end up being slightly controversial, but bear with me for a second:

Wayne's rep as Reds GM has been that he was good at bringing in talent to the organization and as one who picked up some gems for next to nothing.

One thing that I noted throughout his tenure was that the names of those positive contributors seemed to keep changing. David Ross used to be one of those bargain pickups until he was exposed. Keppinger was another acquisition which provided Wayne with some street cred. He then took a fall, whether it was related to his knee or not. Maloney was another when he took the Reds minor league system by storm. That really hasn't worked out with the big league club. I believe the Coutlangus pickup also would apply here.

These were somewhat minor transactions, but still fed the theory that Wayne was good at finding the diamond in the rough. The timeline was something like this: The acquisiton happens, performs well in the beginning, the player gets hyped, and then the player slowly fades away. But, in the back of some people's minds, does Wayne still get "credit" for these transactions?

Now, let's look at some of the bigger additions for which Wayne has really gained accolades for:

Arroyo - started off like gangbusters, great first year and, for the price, the trade worked out tremendously. Has steadily declined since 2006 and is now not doing very well at all with a pretty bad contract.

Burton - similar to Arroyo, had a good end of year in 2007, had a great year last year and struggled to start the year before a demotion to the minors.

Hamilton - a real once in a lifetime opportunity that Wayne cashed in, played well in PT duty his one year here and was shipped to Texas for the next guy on the list.

Volquez - probably the one I'll take a lot of heat on, but he was lights out pre-ASB last year (12-3 with a 2.29 ERA vs 5-3 with a 4.60 ERA) and is now on the DL after a start similar to last year's 2nd half (4-2 with a 4.35 ERA).

Phillips - Been solid throughout but has taken a step back from the hysteria of 2007.


Let me take you to task on a couple of these things.

Arroyo - Acquired for WMP who now is wasting away in AAA. Not as good as he was his first half here, but not as bad as he has been this year. He can frustrate you then rip off a 10 game streak where he is lights out. Solid pitcher.

Burton - Acquired for nothing and has a live arm. Still to early to right him off. Brantley (yes I know most of you think he is an idiot) has mentioned that he doesn't have his out pitch this season. IMO once that comes back he will be a contributor on the Reds.

Hamilton - Again acquired for nothing. Story book season his one year in the majors and then flipped for Volquez.

Phillips - Best 2b in the league not named Utley. Great player who after a down year has picked up his game. Looks like he is coming into his own at the plate after an up and down career as a Red. All Star caliber player picked up for a minor leaguer whose name escapes me.

Volquez - Live arm had a great year last year. The only player of the bunch you mentioned that was acquired for anything. I still have questions about him but he has the stuff and has shown the ability to be dominant.

I also wouldn't discount his ability to use arbitration in order to get draft picks. The guy had the ability to acquire draft picks. He also showed the ability to stock the minor league system with live arms. While Maloney may not have lived up to his billing, he is still a valuable pitcher to have in the Reds organization.

He definitely had his faults. Maybe he wasn't cut out to be a GM of a baseball team. I do know that I would love to have him on my payroll if I were a GM.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 11:58 AM
Depending on who you ask, Brandon Phillips is either the best or 2nd best player on the team. I'll take his talent any day, and I'm glad that WK did.

Falls City Beer
07-15-2009, 11:58 AM
Depending on who you ask, Brandon Phillips is either the best or 2nd best player on the team. I'll take his talent any day, and I'm glad that WK did.

Phillips was one of the very few things WK did right.

Jpup
07-15-2009, 12:01 PM
Depending on who you ask, Brandon Phillips is either the best or 2nd best player on the team. I'll take his talent any day, and I'm glad that WK did.

Votto is the best player on the team and that's not even a debatable thing IMO. When Phillips is playing like he has for the past 6 weeks, he can say he's the second best. With that said, there isn't much competition. He's a good player, but not great. He's probably the best defensive second baseman in baseball. If he played in Boston or New York, he would have made the All-Star team 3 times already.

I don't like the guy is some aspects, but his is a good baseball player.

jojo
07-15-2009, 12:02 PM
I thought the Royals were stat dudes?

No, not so much really.

TRF
07-15-2009, 12:02 PM
Phillips was one of the very few things WK did right.

wow.

getting Arroyo for WMP wasn't "right"

Hamilton? Volquez? Stabilizing the farm? solidifying 1B with Hatte, then easing him out when Votto was ready?

Falls City Beer
07-15-2009, 12:17 PM
wow.

getting Arroyo for WMP wasn't "right"

Hamilton? Volquez? Stabilizing the farm? solidifying 1B with Hatte, then easing him out when Votto was ready?

Stabilizing the farm. lol

Sure, Volquez was a fine experiment. But it couldn't have come at a higher price.

Arroyo is unmoveable now. What he did three years ago doesn't interest me in the least.

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 12:17 PM
My eyes tell me that he is a better player this year than ever. The numbers say that he is the same. He had a great June and has been pretty good in July so far. I believe he'll end up closer to .850 than .750.

I agree and hope you are right. I like having Phillips on this team.

TRF
07-15-2009, 12:18 PM
Stabilizing the farm. lol

Sure, Volquez was a fine experiment. But it couldn't have come at a higher price.

Arroyo is unmoveable now. What he did three years ago doesn't interest me in the least.

Wan't Jr. unmoveable? Walt moved him. And pitchers are far easier to move. Chan Ho Park actually has a job somewhere.

Falls City Beer
07-15-2009, 12:20 PM
Wan't Jr. unmoveable?

Ask princeton

I'm sure someone will take Arroyo and some cash off the Reds' hands for nothing in return.

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 12:22 PM
wow.

getting Arroyo for WMP wasn't "right"

And this was kind of my point with that post. I think the trophy for the Arroyo acquisition is living more off 2006 than off of reality. Add in the current contract and how much did we really win on that trade? Not as much as I think is perceived.

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 12:24 PM
Wan't Jr. unmoveable? Walt moved him. And pitchers are far easier to move. Chan Ho Park actually has a job somewhere.

Jr was unmoveable until he had 2 months left on his contract.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 12:26 PM
Wan't Jr. unmoveable? Walt moved him.

There is a big difference when a guy like that has 2-3 years left on an albatross deal vs. when he has two months left.

That said, Arroyo could conceivably be moveable if he can string together a few more nice starts. Pitching is easier to move for sure.

TheNext44
07-15-2009, 12:27 PM
I thought the Royals were stat dudes?

Manager yes. GM, not so much.

Caveat Emperor
07-15-2009, 12:32 PM
And this was kind of my point with that post. I think the trophy for the Arroyo acquisition is living more off 2006 than off of reality. Add in the current contract and how much did we really win on that trade? Not as much as I think is perceived.

The fact is, even if Arroyo had flamed out of baseball after 2006, the Reds would've still won the trade considering how little Wily Mo Pena has contributed. Arroyo was solid in '07, solid for half a year in '08, and is inconsistent but still eating innings and contributing in '09.

How can you say that's not a win?

You can take WK to task for signing Arroyo to an extension, you can question if performance reaches level of pay for Arroyo -- but the issue of whether or not Arroyo was a good acquisition for the price paid is beyond debate. They got a guy who has provided 200+ IP at roughly replacement level for 3+ seasons for a guy who was a platoon player with no OB skills and is now a minor leaguer.

Win.

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 12:43 PM
Let me take you to task on a couple of these things.

Arroyo - Acquired for WMP who now is wasting away in AAA. Not as good as he was his first half here, but not as bad as he has been this year. He can frustrate you then rip off a 10 game streak where he is lights out. Solid pitcher.

ERA well above 5 in the first year of his $24MM, 2 year extension. Was really good in 2006 and has been pretty average ever since. I think his performance in 2006 has made the acquisition look better than it really has been.


Burton - Acquired for nothing and has a live arm. Still to early to right him off. Brantley (yes I know most of you think he is an idiot) has mentioned that he doesn't have his out pitch this season. IMO once that comes back he will be a contributor on the Reds.

Write him off? No, but the shine has worn off of him for the time being. Which was the point of my post. Nice early returns but long-term isn't as great.


Hamilton - Again acquired for nothing. Story book season his one year in the majors and then flipped for Volquez.

Played 90 or so games for Cincy and did well. Used to obtain Volquez.


Phillips - Best 2b in the league not named Utley. Great player who after a down year has picked up his game. Looks like he is coming into his own at the plate after an up and down career as a Red. All Star caliber player picked up for a minor leaguer whose name escapes me.

Really good acquisition.


Volquez - Live arm had a great year last year. The only player of the bunch you mentioned that was acquired for anything. I still have questions about him but he has the stuff and has shown the ability to be dominant.

For 3 months. Talented, hopefully he is a long-term rotation anchor rather than a 3 month flash and then averageness.


I also wouldn't discount his ability to use arbitration in order to get draft picks. The guy had the ability to acquire draft picks. He also showed the ability to stock the minor league system with live arms. While Maloney may not have lived up to his billing, he is still a valuable pitcher to have in the Reds organization.

Wasn't talking about that but his crew also had the ability to burn draft picks.

Also, Maloney isn't a valuable guy. He got torched in a few starts in the majors and is basically destined to be filler.


He definitely had his faults. Maybe he wasn't cut out to be a GM of a baseball team. I do know that I would love to have him on my payroll if I were a GM.

Agreed.

But I think you missed the point of my post. I wasn't ripping the players or even the acquisitions. What I was saying is that I think some on here give him a bit too much credit for some of these acquisitions based upon early returns.

Benihana
07-15-2009, 12:48 PM
Wasn't talking about that but his crew also had the ability to burn draft picks.


please explain

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 12:51 PM
The fact is, even if Arroyo had flamed out of baseball after 2006, the Reds would've still won the trade considering how little Wily Mo Pena has contributed. Arroyo was solid in '07, solid for half a year in '08, and is inconsistent but still eating innings and contributing in '09.

How can you say that's not a win?

If Arroyo flamed out after 2006, the trade would probably have been way better.

And, I didn't say it wasn't a win, I said it probably isn't the rout that some think it is.


You can take WK to task for signing Arroyo to an extension, you can question if performance reaches level of pay for Arroyo -- but the issue of whether or not Arroyo was a good acquisition for the price paid is beyond debate. They got a guy who has provided 200+ IP at roughly replacement level for 3+ seasons for a guy who was a platoon player with no OB skills and is now a minor leaguer.

Win.

Agreed, win when you look at it that way and probably a win anyway you look at it. But not a mercy rule like it was in 2006.

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 12:56 PM
please explain

8 of top 10 picks in 2006 draft were college guys and we haven't seen any returns in the majors with the exception of a few innings from Roenicke. Top 10 pick taken over guys like Lincecum, Scherzer and Joba. 2nd round pick was even more questionable than 1st.

Some think that 2006 was a pretty good draft, but I'll wait to give the blue ribbon until we see someone make an impact at the ML level. And when 80% of your top 10 picks were college guys, it isn't outrageous to expect someone to do something on the big league club.

Falls City Beer
07-15-2009, 12:58 PM
8 of top 10 picks in 2006 draft were college guys and we haven't seen any returns in the majors with the exception of a few innings from Roenicke. Top 10 pick taken over guys like Lincecum, Scherzer and Joba. 2nd round pick was even more questionable than 1st.

Some think that 2006 was a pretty good draft, but I'll wait to give the blue ribbon until we see someone make an impact at the ML level. And when 80% of your top 10 picks were college guys, it isn't outrageous to expect someone to do something on the big league club.

Bowden often had better drafts than Krivsky's 06. The guy was absolutely tin-eared when it came to tools to target.

bucksfan2
07-15-2009, 02:05 PM
ERA well above 5 in the first year of his $24MM, 2 year extension. Was really good in 2006 and has been pretty average ever since. I think his performance in 2006 has made the acquisition look better than it really has been.

League average pitching can be a difficult thing to find. Throw in that Arroyo eats up 200+ innings a year and he has value. At the time of the extension guys like Gil Meche, Carlos Silva, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Suppan were getting paid. At the time and even now I don't have much of a problem with Arroyo's contract. The one issue I had was when Krivsky didn't trade Arroyo when Escobar + was being dangled in front of him.

BTW I full expect Arroyo on foreward to have an ERA of 3.50. It is just the up and down nature of him. Last year his second half was as good as anybody's.


Write him off? No, but the shine has worn off of him for the time being. Which was the point of my post. Nice early returns but long-term isn't as great.

Kind of confused here you haven't written him off but his long term success isn't great.


Really good acquisition.

Phillips was a great acquisition.


For 3 months. Talented, hopefully he is a long-term rotation anchor rather than a 3 month flash and then averageness.

I don't think that Volquez is average but the jury is still up in the air about him. We will see how he bounces back. I like the kid but he needs to learn how to conserve pitches.


Wasn't talking about that but his crew also had the ability to burn draft picks.

He began to replinish the farm system. I wouldn't say that he burnt through draft picks. You could say every year teams should have drafted this guy, or they shouldn't have passed on that guy. It is just the nature of the draft. How many players do you think should make the majors out of every draft?


Also, Maloney isn't a valuable guy. He got torched in a few starts in the majors and is basically destined to be filler.


Maloney has all of two big league starts. I wouldn't say he is going to be a world beater, but I wouldn't write him off as junk.


But I think you missed the point of my post. I wasn't ripping the players or even the acquisitions. What I was saying is that I think some on here give him a bit too much credit for some of these acquisitions based upon early returns.

I agree here. You can debate (as we are now) the value of WK's acquisitions. A lot of the guys who are mentioned have had success and provided value while acquired on the very very cheap.

Patrick Bateman
07-15-2009, 02:09 PM
The only thing I'm really getting out of this is that neither Krivsky or Jocketty should be the GM of this organization. This has become more of a battle of "who's mistakes were worse", which really means that there isn't enough good to outweigh the bad.

traderumor
07-15-2009, 03:04 PM
The only thing I'm really getting out of this is that neither Krivsky or Jocketty should be the GM of this organization. This has become more of a battle of "who's mistakes were worse", which really means that there isn't enough good to outweigh the bad.If you're going to make such conclusions based on RZ opinion, good luck finding anyone worthy.

Chip R
07-15-2009, 03:05 PM
the only thing i'm really getting out of this is that neither krivsky or jocketty should be the gm of this organization. This has become more of a battle of "who's mistakes were worse", which really means that there isn't enough good to outweigh the bad.


bring back dan o!!!1111!

princeton
07-15-2009, 03:16 PM
The only thing I'm really getting out of this is that neither Krivsky or Jocketty should be the GM of this organization.

I've liked 'em both though, for WJ, I'm extrapolating to the good things that I know that he'll do once he awakens.

SO much better than predecessors.

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 03:28 PM
League average pitching can be a difficult thing to find. Throw in that Arroyo eats up 200+ innings a year and he has value. At the time of the extension guys like Gil Meche, Carlos Silva, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Suppan were getting paid. At the time and even now I don't have much of a problem with Arroyo's contract. The one issue I had was when Krivsky didn't trade Arroyo when Escobar + was being dangled in front of him.

BTW I full expect Arroyo on foreward to have an ERA of 3.50. It is just the up and down nature of him. Last year his second half was as good as anybody's.

League average pitching is...average. Shouldn't be that difficult to find. Maybe it seems so difficult to find since the Reds can't seem to find it even if they had a map. And then when they do find it, they freak out and give it a questionable contract extension. Doesn't matter that Seattle was dumb enough to give Silva his contract, it doesn't make Arroyo's extension seem any better. Also, you forgot to mention that BA didn't need his extension. He was under the Reds control for 2 more years. That is the biggest issue, the timing.

It would be great if Arroyo pitches like that for the rest of the year.


Kind of confused here you haven't written him off but his long term success isn't great.

Of course he can bounce back, but my statement was that people view this as a feather in WK's cap when he bombed after one year. He may bounce back. We may never hear from him again.


Phillips was a great acquisition.

Yep.


I don't think that Volquez is average but the jury is still up in the air about him. We will see how he bounces back. I like the kid but he needs to learn how to conserve pitches.

He's been pretty average for 67% of his tenure here. If his first 12 months were like his last 12 months and his last 6 months were like his first 6 months, he would be viewed a lot differently. A lot.


He began to replinish the farm system. I wouldn't say that he burnt through draft picks. You could say every year teams should have drafted this guy, or they shouldn't have passed on that guy. It is just the nature of the draft. How many players do you think should make the majors out of every draft?

Kind of a loaded question. Bottom line was that they made the decision (for whatever reason) to take the questionable guy 8th overall over some top pitchers.


Maloney has all of two big league starts. I wouldn't say he is going to be a world beater, but I wouldn't write him off as junk.

I'm not expecting him to be much.


I agree here. You can debate (as we are now) the value of WK's acquisitions. A lot of the guys who are mentioned have had success and provided value while acquired on the very very cheap.

Sure, but my statement is that he is given too much credit for picking up certain guys who cannot hold their value. Everyone was crazy for Burton last year, now he is in the minors. Sure even getting one good year out of a Rule 5 guy is swell, but in the grand scheme does that pickup mean anything if he doesn't come back or becomes a career middle of the road reliever? What if Volquez is a career 4.25-4.75 ERA guy like he has been for the last 12 months? Does that trade still look as good as it is treated?

Patrick Bateman
07-15-2009, 04:35 PM
I've liked 'em both though, for WJ, I'm extrapolating to the good things that I know that he'll do once he awakens.

SO much better than predecessors.

For the record, I don't necessarily agree with the statement that I made, based purely on the arguments based on this thread. But I've yet to see one particularly compelling argument that suggests that either Krivsky or Jocketty has done an overall satisfactory job, which is consistent with the state of the team being fielded. The only question for debate so far, is "who is worse," which if that's what this boils down to, the Reds were screwed and will be screwed, either way, until a replacement is ready.

traderumor
07-15-2009, 04:43 PM
For the record, I don't necessarily agree with the statement that I made, based purely on the arguments based on this thread. But I've yet to see one particularly compelling argument that suggests that either Krivsky or Jocketty has done an overall satisfactory job, which is consistent with the state of the team being fielded. The only question for debate so far, is "who is worse," which if that's what this boils down to, the Reds were screwed and will be screwed, either way, until a replacement is ready.That is because it is too early for fans to evaluate. Fans need the benefit of hindsight many years down the road to FAIRLY evaluate GMs because of the limited access to information in the here and now. People try, but most of the analysis is based on what one could do without really having the information to consider if it was even possible (like evaluating this offseason for WJ). Now, I fully expect to get lengthy posts from all the armchair GMs who think they are giving fair crappy evaluations, but I'm gonna say it anyway.

TRF
07-15-2009, 04:47 PM
I give fair crappy evaluations.

But i won't be lengthy about it.

Caveat Emperor
07-15-2009, 05:25 PM
I've liked 'em both though, for WJ, I'm extrapolating to the good things that I know that he'll do once he awakens.

SO much better than predecessors.

Agreed.

People quickly forget that ANY one of the starters in the 5 man rotation would've been the best pitcher on some of the Reds squad in the first part of this decade.

TRF
07-15-2009, 05:39 PM
Agreed.

People quickly forget that ANY one of the starters in the 5 man rotation would've been the best pitcher on some of the Reds squad in the first part of this decade.

Nobody disrespects Jose Acevedo and Elizardo Ramirez in front of me and lives.

nate
07-15-2009, 05:47 PM
Nobody disrespects Jose Acevedo and Elizardo Ramirez in front of me and lives.

Post of the week!

:cool:

edabbs44
07-15-2009, 05:48 PM
The only thing I'm really getting out of this is that neither Krivsky or Jocketty should be the GM of this organization. This has become more of a battle of "who's mistakes were worse", which really means that there isn't enough good to outweigh the bad.

I am more in the Jocketty camp for now but I need to see something more from him. He has been disappointing in some regards for lack of activity but he also hasn't pushed the panic button and hurt the long-term flexibility of the payroll by making poor signings.

That makes me think that he has a plan. The other guy had no long-term plan. Cordero is a perfect example. Need a closer on a 70 win ballclub? Go spend the most money ever on a reliever? Doesn't make much sense. Maybe Walt didn't fill-in a gap in LF this winter, but my guess was that he would have saddled Cincy with a 4 year deal for Abreu, Burrell or Bradley to do that. And that would have been an issue for the long-term prospects of the ballclub.

schroomytunes
07-15-2009, 08:09 PM
I think Jocketty has a solid plan in place, but this year's Free Agent class was very lackluster in areas of need for us. Yes some moves he made makes us scratch our heads, but they are 1-2 year deals, they will not hurt us long-term. They simply buy the franchise time to let guys develop in the minors...examples

CF-Taveras(2009) in (2010) Stubbs or Heisey
LF-Nix/Dickerson(2009) in (2010) Frazier, Votto, Alonso
BP-Weathers, Lincoln(2009) in (2010) Fisher, Roenicke

IMHO we need a veteran Backup catcher or re-sign Ramon to a more friendly 3 year deal, a solid veteran SS to groom Valaika/Cozart..maybe Scutero/Everett in the offseason. Then in the offseason spend the big $$$ on a LF and a solid 4th OF/Utility guy like DeRosa to provide depth. I believe Walt is working the phones, but sometimes the best deals are the one's that are thought out and not by trigger happy gunslinger's