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Screwball
05-01-2008, 02:04 AM
John Sickels posted his personal "crystal ball" for Jay Bruce over on his site (www.minorleagueball.com/ (http://www.minorleagueball.com/)). Here's what he predicts:

http://assets.sbnation.com:/assets/3261/brucestats.JPG

I'd like to see what RedsZone thinks about John's prognosis. Too optimistic, Just Right, or Too Pessimistic?

OnBaseMachine
05-01-2008, 02:09 AM
I think he'll be a perennial .300-.320 hitter with 35-40 homeruns maybe more in some seasons. John does a solid job with the crystal balls - those projections are always fun to read.

Joseph
05-01-2008, 09:26 AM
I don't like him listing him as playing with the Astros. Numbers though, how could any of us be upset if Jay Bruce puts up HoF type numbers.

Spring~Fields
05-01-2008, 10:06 AM
I think that he is shorting Bruce in the early years. I expect him to do Votto numbers if not better.

Screwball
05-01-2008, 10:14 AM
I think that he is shorting Bruce in the early years. I expect him to do Votto numbers if not better.

Yeah, I was pretty surprised to see Sickels have Jay Bruce with a .223 avg. this year. IMO, he won't set the league on fire just yet, but he'll be a little more productive than stated.

However, it's tough to complain about the predicted peak numbers. 80-95 XBH a year, with almost half of 'em being home runs? 504 career homers? I'll take it. :thumbup:

Benihana
05-01-2008, 10:28 AM
2014 -2016 look like MVP years if I'm not mistaken

I'll take a three-time MVP in a Reds uni

Steve4192
05-01-2008, 10:40 AM
That's pretty much what I envision for his future (assuming he stays physically & mentally healthy).

The only nit I would pick is that his walk rate looks too low, especially later in his career after he has established himself as a superduperstar. Pitchers will start nibbling and intentionally walking him if he establishes himself as a 300 hitting 40 HR guy. Plus, even before he establishes himself, I highly doubt he will be a hacking away to the tune of a paltry 30+ walks per year. Sickels has him flirting with a sub-300 OBP right up until he becomes an MVP candidate in 2013. That's is not realistic IMO.

I expect him to start out as a 50 walks per year kind of hitter and eventually build towards 80 walks per year as he hits his peak.

OnBaseMachine
05-01-2008, 10:43 AM
That's pretty much what I envision for his future (assuming he stays physically & mentally healthy).

The only nit I would pick is that walk rate looks too low, especially later in his career after he has established himself as a superduperstar. Pitchers will start nibbling and intentionally walking him if he establishes himself as a 300 hitting 40 HR guy. While the BB rates at the start of his career might be realistic, I expect him to eventually turn into a 75-85 walks per year kind of hitter.

Very good point. That was one of the first things that come to my mind when I read this thread.

medford
05-01-2008, 11:05 AM
While those numbers look very nice, apparently Sickels doesn't know that Bruce is the Boss; I think his peak will be better.

Cyclone792
05-01-2008, 11:13 AM
That's pretty much what I envision for his future (assuming he stays physically & mentally healthy).

The only nit I would pick is that his walk rate looks too low, especially later in his career after he has established himself as a superduperstar. Pitchers will start nibbling and intentionally walking him if he establishes himself as a 300 hitting 40 HR guy. Plus, even before he establishes himself, I highly doubt he will be a hacking away to the tune of a paltry 30+ walks per year. Sickels has him flirting with a sub-300 OBP right up until he becomes an MVP candidate in 2013. That's is not realistic IMO.

I expect him to start out as a 50 walks per year kind of hitter and eventually build towards 80 walks per year as he hits his peak.

I'm with you here.

People may get giddy with those counting stats listed, but the approx. OBP with those stats is .340 with the approx. SLG being around .520, good for an .860 OPS.

What's suspect to me is Sickels has Bruce with 1,112 extra base hits and only 798 walks (as an aside, Griffey has exactly 1,112 extra base hits right now to go with 1,175 walks). To me, if Bruce is going to put up that high of an extra base hit total, then his walk total will be higher. If he's only walking once every 13 PAs then I highly doubt he'll stroke 1,100 extra base hits. I'm not sure if that player has ever existed, and if he does exist then there isn't many of them around.

Screwball
05-01-2008, 12:22 PM
2014 -2016 look like MVP years if I'm not mistaken

I'll take a three-time MVP in a Reds uni

His line for those years (OBP*/SLG/OPS):

2014: .362*/.621/.983
2015: .368*/.573/.941
2016: .382*/.568/.950

*: I figured up his OBP by adding hits and walks and then dividing by PA. I didn't have information concerning sac flies and reached on errors, etc., so I just ignored it.

camisadelgolf
05-01-2008, 02:33 PM
A few guys I think of when I look at this thread are Joe Carter, Andres Galarraga, and Jim Rice. I don't think any of them struck out as much as Bruce is projected to, but they're a few players I recall not walking very much and still managing to put up some good power numbers year in and year out.

Degenerate39
05-01-2008, 04:12 PM
Blasphemey! He'll be a career Red and hit 50 homers every year.

UC_Ken
05-01-2008, 04:13 PM
I had to go with too optimistic. The number I really didn't like was the 504 HR. Projecting a player who has not played in the majors to hit 500+ HR is a huge reach.

Rounding Third
05-01-2008, 05:17 PM
I had to go with too optimistic. The number I really didn't like was the 504 HR. Projecting a player who has not played in the majors to hit 500+ HR is a huge reach.

Its a crystal ball of a player who hasn't played in the majors.

Cyclone792
05-01-2008, 07:49 PM
A few guys I think of when I look at this thread are Joe Carter, Andres Galarraga, and Jim Rice. I don't think any of them struck out as much as Bruce is projected to, but they're a few players I recall not walking very much and still managing to put up some good power numbers year in and year out.

Pretty good power, yes, but not enough power to fuel a .520ish slugging percentage, 500 home runs or 1,100 extra base hits. Rice and Galarraga actually had higher on-base percentages too than the above Bruce projection (Rice at .352, Galarraga at .347).

Here's a list of the top career slugging percentages with qualifying players over 2,000 plate appearances who posted an on-base percentage of .340 or lower (current through '05 season - I've been lazy and haven't updated the database yet):


CAREER
MODERN (1900-)
OBA <= .340
HOMERUNS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
EXTRA BASE HITS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria

SLG SLG OBA HR EBH RC/G PA
1 Alfonso Soriano .500 .320 162 377 116 3490
2 Ernie Banks .500 .330 512 1009 121 10395
3 Dante Bichette .499 .336 274 702 114 6855
4 Dick Stuart .489 .316 228 415 110 4363
5 Matt Williams .489 .317 378 751 104 7595
6 Carlos Lee .488 .337 184 427 112 4334
7 Gus Zernial .486 .329 237 418 113 4561
8 Brad Fullmer .486 .336 114 333 107 3065
9 Joe Adcock .485 .337 336 666 112 7304
10 Wally Post .485 .323 210 432 110 4397
11 Raul Mondesi .485 .331 271 639 109 6369
12 Vinny Castilla .483 .324 315 682 99 7093
13 Glenallen Hill .482 .321 186 394 107 4033
14 Andre Dawson .482 .323 438 1039 118 10769
15 Aramis Ramirez .481 .329 158 351 103 3620
16 Henry Rodriguez .481 .321 160 345 103 3343
17 Vernon Wells .481 .330 109 283 109 2848
18 George Foster .480 .338 348 702 125 7812
19 Dave Kingman .478 .302 442 707 105 7429
20 Preston Wilson .478 .333 171 378 98 3831
21 Miguel Tejada .477 .338 216 515 108 5396
22 Tony Conigliaro .476 .327 166 328 124 3591
23 Bo Jackson .474 .309 141 241 107 2626
24 Ron Kittle .473 .306 176 279 106 3013
25 Garret Anderson .473 .327 224 656 103 6849
26 Dean Palmer .472 .324 275 521 103 5513
27 Hank Blalock .471 .338 89 208 110 2205
28 Dave Parker .471 .339 339 940 122 10184
29 Greg Vaughn .470 .337 355 662 111 7070
30 George Bell .469 .316 265 607 111 6586
31 Jermaine Dye .469 .334 192 453 105 4823
32 Ron Gant .468 .336 321 673 114 7320
33 Glenn Davis .467 .332 190 380 120 4189
34 Jesse Barfield .466 .335 241 487 118 5394
35 Cecil Cooper .466 .337 241 703 125 7939
36 Wes Covington .466 .337 131 276 117 3291
37 Jay Gibbons .466 .315 102 234 98 2367
38 Joe Carter .464 .306 396 881 104 9154
39 Walker Cooper .464 .332 173 453 109 5078
40 Jerry Lynch .463 .329 115 272 112 3145
41 Bobby Thomson .462 .332 264 605 107 6957
42 Mike Lowell .461 .339 143 387 105 4018
43 Greg Colbrunn .460 .338 98 265 104 3016
44 Jim Lemon .460 .332 164 320 111 3870
45 Don Demeter .459 .307 163 327 104 3730
46 Bill Skowron .459 .332 211 507 111 6046
47 Lee May .459 .313 354 725 108 8219
48 Bubba Trammell .459 .339 82 185 102 2034
49 Torii Hunter .458 .321 133 349 94 3633
50 Tony Batista .458 .298 214 442 86 4646

OnBaseMachine
05-01-2008, 08:32 PM
Jay has had a bunch of three ball counts lately where he eventually got a hit in that atbat. If only he had taken one more ball in a few of those atbats we'd be projecting him as an 80+ walk guy. He's only 21, he'll improve with time. Guys like Miguel Cabrera and Jose Reyes didn't walk a whole lot in the minors and now look what they're doing as they have matured and pitchers have began to fear them.

AmarilloRed
05-02-2008, 01:07 AM
I felt the peak was a bit too low; I actually expect him to hit for a higher BA and more power his first 4-5 seasons.

Screwball
05-04-2008, 02:43 AM
John Sickels posted the same poll on his website to see how people rated his "crystal ball." I wanted to see how the results there compared to the same poll here. As I expected, they're very much different from our own (so far).

RZ:

7&#37; - Too Optimistic; peak won't be that good
13% - Too Optimistic; he won't last that long
24% - Just Right
2% - Too Pessmistic; he will last longer
54% - Too Pessimistic; his peak will be better

Sickels' Poll:

31% - Too Optimistic; peak won't be that good
21% - Too Optimistic; he won't last that long
28% - Just Right
2% - Too Pessimistic; he will last longer
16% - Too Pessimistic; his peak will be better

From reading the comments, it's evident that John's readers think Bruce is a very good prospect, but he really isn't that great. Said one reader:


so are the 15% of people serious when they say his peak will be better?

WTF?

I’m not saying this CB is too optimistic, its hard for anyone to do this but you can understand #1 prospect RF hitting 49 HRs and hitting .300+ someday, but how is it too pessimistic!?

Is he supposed to hit 600 homers?
Are there really 66 crazy fanboys out there?


Most here at RedsZone disagree. While we're almost certainly more biased concering Jay Bruce, I think we're also more informed. I think a combination of the two explains the discrepancy in the polls.

LoganBuck
05-04-2008, 11:42 AM
When I opened this thread the thought went through my mind:

Jay Bruce and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull