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View Full Version : May 2nd Lineup, Quotes



reds44
05-02-2008, 06:35 PM
Same ole same ole as far as lineup goes, but Hatteberg gets a start.



Corey Patterson cf
Jeff Keppinger ss
Ken Griffey Jr. rf
Brandon Phillips 2b
Adam Dunn lf
Edwin Encarnacion 3b
Scott Hatteberg 1b
Paul Bako c
Edinson Volquez p

v. RH Tim Hudson

--Dusty Baker said Ryan Freel will start the next two days.

"It boils down to the big boys in the middle of the lineup," Baker said. "We've got to get one of them hot. Give me an MVP for a week."

--Baker said he's conisdered moving Edwin Encarnacion and Joey Votto up because of the struggles of Giffey and Dunn.

"Don't think there's a combination I haven't thought about," he said.

--Mario Soto had his first session with Johnny Cueto. "We want to get him back to the way he was throwing," Soto said. "I saw him on TV he's throwing completely differently than he did in the minors and his first couple of outings." Soto said he tweaked the grip on the Soto's change-up.

oneupper
05-02-2008, 06:38 PM
Braves can hit. Crunch time for Volquez.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 06:45 PM
Braves can hit. Crunch time for Volquez.

I see no reason for the Reds to win a game this series.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2008, 06:46 PM
I see no reason for the Reds to win a game this series.

The Reds are going to win two of three.

jojo
05-02-2008, 06:48 PM
I see no reason for the Reds to win a game this series.

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/3717/pooh74gifss8.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 06:49 PM
The Reds are going to win two of three.

While I can't definitively say this is the worst team in the NL, right now they're interchangeable with any of the bottom of the barrel dregs, depending on the pitcher they have going. Unless some insanely massive changes occur, they're on a collision course with 90 losses again.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 06:49 PM
http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/3717/pooh74gifss8.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Can you name a team in the NL playing worse baseball than the Reds?

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2008, 06:50 PM
While I can't definitively say this is the worst team in the NL, right now they're interchangeable with any of the bottom of the barrel dregs, depending on the pitcher they have going. Unless some insanely massive changes occur, they're on a collision course with 90 losses again.

81 losses, max.

jojo
05-02-2008, 06:51 PM
Can you name a team in the NL playing worse baseball than the Reds?

It's Friday night and there's baseball...... :cool:

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 06:52 PM
It's Friday night and there's baseball...... :cool:

Yeah, I can't either. :)

jojo
05-02-2008, 06:54 PM
Yeah, I can't either. :)

It is what it is but E.V. is pitching tonight and it should be fun to see him work against the Braves.

reds44
05-02-2008, 07:07 PM
If the Reds can win 2 out of 3, and go above .500 on the trip, it will be a nice note to come home on.

Baby steps.

Spring~Fields
05-02-2008, 07:18 PM
Mario Soto had his first session with Johnny Cueto. "We want to get him back to the way he was throwing," Soto said. "I saw him on TV he's throwing completely differently than he did in the minors and his first couple of outings."

How's that happen, Dick Pole ? :confused:

kbrake
05-02-2008, 07:25 PM
If Dusty is thinking of different combinations how about trying one? This one sure as hell doesnt seem to be working. Would not be suprised at all to see a sweep.

redsfan4445
05-02-2008, 07:26 PM
Well Good Thing Freel didnt get 4 hits that last game, then maybe he would have started over popout hitter Patterson..GRRR I would have played Freels hot bat!!

TRF
05-02-2008, 08:20 PM
Can you name a team in the NL playing worse baseball than the Reds?

Pittsburgh, Colorado and SF are all worse.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 10:10 PM
Pittsburgh, Colorado and SF are all worse.

No they aren't.

*BaseClogger*
05-02-2008, 10:55 PM
San Francisco has one of the worst lineups I have ever seen and there pitching is not any better than the Reds, especially in that home ballpark...

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 10:57 PM
San Francisco has one of the worst lineups I have ever seen and there pitching is not any better than the Reds, especially in that home ballpark...

And yet....

*BaseClogger*
05-02-2008, 10:59 PM
And yet....

It's still very early?

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 11:00 PM
It's still very early?

Not really. And further--we're splitting hairs. The Reds are right in the same company as the above teams--who cares if three or four games separate them at the end. They are all inconsequential.

*BaseClogger*
05-02-2008, 11:03 PM
Not really. And further--we're splitting hairs. The Reds are right in the same company as the above teams--who cares if three or four games separate them at the end. They are all inconsequential.

The season is less than 18% complete.

Even really bad teams have only bad months...

You're right--but the Reds have a much brighter future and are closer to contention IMO.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 11:05 PM
The season is less than 18% complete.

Even really bad teams have only bad months...

18% over and last in the division. It's over, and bad teams give up.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2008, 11:11 PM
18% over and last in the division. It's over, and bad teams give up.

Last time I checked the Reds still had 130 games left. So nope, it's not over.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 11:16 PM
Last time I checked the Reds still had 130 games left. So nope, it's not over.
:(

fearofpopvol1
05-02-2008, 11:20 PM
I do think Pittsburgh is by far the worst team in the NL. Their pitching has been horrendous. However, hard to argue with the fact that the Reds aren't one of the worst.

I've gone back and forth, but I am now convinced that the team needs a big shakeup. This just isn't working. When you've lost every game you've played where you haven't hit a home run (except for 1), you're not going to be competitive. This team is feast or famine without the home run and that is not a recipe for success at the major league level. The thing that really sucks is the biggest hole in the past for the Reds has been the pitching and now that they seemingly have that in order, the offense has fallen apart.

Aronchis
05-02-2008, 11:22 PM
One thing interesting so far is the end of the "even year fluke" pattern. 00,02,04,06 saw the Reds come out with a quick start only to decline in the June/July timeframe.

2nd year in a row of a bad 30 game start.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 11:23 PM
I do think Pittsburgh is by far the worst team in the NL. Their pitching has been horrendous. However, hard to argue with the fact that the Reds aren't one of the worst.

I've gone back and forth, but I am now convinced that the team needs a big shakeup. This just isn't working. When you've lost every game you've played where you haven't hit a home run (except for 1), you're not going to be competitive. This team is feast or famine without the home run and that is not a recipe for success at the major league level. The thing that really sucks is the biggest hole in the past for the Reds has been the pitching and now that they seemingly have that in order, the offense has fallen apart.

The pitching really isn't that good either.

fearofpopvol1
05-02-2008, 11:26 PM
The pitching really isn't that good either.

What data do you have to back that up?

It's MUCH imrpoved. If the Reds had this pitching last year at this time, they'd be at or near the top of the division.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 11:32 PM
What data do you have to back that up?

It's MUCH imrpoved. If the Reds had this pitching last year at this time, they'd be at or near the top of the division.

21st in team ERA in MLB.

Sea Ray
05-02-2008, 11:35 PM
The season is less than 18% complete.

Even really bad teams have only bad months...



It's not just a bad month. The Reds were bad in 2007 too. It's 18% of this season and 100% of last season. This team needs a change in philosophy away from the 3 run HR. I'd play Ryan Freel in CF and make him the leadoff hitter. I'd make it a point to acquire one or two athletic outfielders and a junk balling LH starter.

fearofpopvol1
05-02-2008, 11:40 PM
21st in team ERA in MLB.

You conveniently left out, #1 in K's and tied for 6th in least amount of BBs. I fully expect that ERA to drop (especially now that Todd Coffey is out of the picture). The Reds also are tied for last in saves. Why? Because, the offense sucks.

Kc61
05-02-2008, 11:42 PM
21st in team ERA in MLB.

Going into tonight's performance (in which Volquez allowed one earned run) the team had an ERA of 4.37. This is a vast improvement over last year's over 5 ERA. Last year, the team was one of the absolute worst in team ERA. There is no denying a significant pitching improvement. Starting, bullpen, everywhere.

The Reds' problem is so obvious that you don't have to pay some guy millions as GM to figure it out. They have two players who earn $25 million per year together and who are paid to hit and haven't done so this year.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 11:43 PM
You conveniently left out, #1 in K's and tied for 6th in least amount of BBs. I fully expect that ERA to drop (especially now that Todd Coffey is out of the picture). The Reds also are tied for last in saves. Why? Because, the offense sucks.

You're going to see at least one of the young arms experience a huge dropoff in Ks (Cueto has consistently seen his Ks vanish). These things even out. The pitching really isn't that good.

But yeah, the offense is bad too.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 11:43 PM
Going into tonight's performance (in which Volquez allowed one earned run) the team had an ERA of 4.37. This is a vast improvement over last year's over 5 ERA. Last year, the team was probably 39th in team ERA. There is no denying a significant pitching improvement. Starting, bullpen, everywhere.

The Reds' problem is so obvious that you don't have to pay some guy millions as GM to figure it out. They have two players who earn $25 million per year together and who are paid to hit and haven't done so this year.

39th?
:p:

flyer85
05-02-2008, 11:44 PM
Reds just have too many guys that can't consistently get on base.

Kc61
05-02-2008, 11:45 PM
39th?
:p:

Likely not that bad.

Sorry for the typo.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2008, 11:47 PM
Likely not that bad.

Sorry for the typo.

When you get below twenty, it's sort of 6 of one half dozen the other. In short, your pitching sucks.

fearofpopvol1
05-02-2008, 11:48 PM
You're going to see at least one of the young arms experience a huge dropoff in Ks (Cueto has consistently seen his Ks vanish). These things even out. The pitching really isn't that good.

But yeah, the offense is bad too.

2 starts is considered "consistently?" By that definition, Tim Hudson sucks, because his last 2 starts were bad.

Kc61
05-02-2008, 11:54 PM
When you get below twenty, it's sort of 6 of one half dozen the other. In short, your pitching sucks.

Well, I have to disagree on that one. If the Reds stay below 4.5 in the ERA department they will have really improved there. They still have some work to do on pitching, but there is a talent pipeline in the minors. Also, Arroyo isn't a 6.00 ERA pitcher and, as shown last outing, he will do better.

I'm happy to see this because for so many years the team ERA was off the charts bad. At least now it's in a reasonable range.

On offense, though, like many fans, I've had it with the main players. It's time to redeploy the $25 million being paid to Griffey and Dunn and get more consistent hitters for the middle of the order. I don't care if the new guys can hit balls 550 feet, I just want to see some steady consistent offense.

And the lefty leadoff hitter isn't doing anything either.

HokieRed
05-03-2008, 12:06 AM
Great to have good pitching, but Wayne badly overestimated this offense's ability to make runs without last year's best player. Rangers need pitching. Can we get back Josh for Arroyo maybe?

*BaseClogger*
05-03-2008, 12:22 AM
When you get below twenty, it's sort of 6 of one half dozen the other. In short, your pitching sucks.

No... it's not. the relative ranking tells us almost nothing...

SteelSD
05-03-2008, 01:08 AM
Going into tonight's performance (in which Volquez allowed one earned run) the team had an ERA of 4.37. This is a vast improvement over last year's over 5 ERA. Last year, the team was one of the absolute worst in team ERA. There is no denying a significant pitching improvement. Starting, bullpen, everywhere.

Actually, coming into tonight, the Reds' team ERA stood at 107% of league average. Last season, they were 111% of league average. While the ERA number looks like it's improved dramatically, the team's standing versus the league really hasn't improved very much- and this is after an April that has been abnormally cold and it's a time when the pitchers are generally ahead of the hitters anyway. For example, through May 1st of last season, teams allowed 4.40 Runs per game and 4.84 Runs over the remainder of the season. Only two teams (ATL, WAS) produced R/G averages of 0.10 or more lower than their through-May 1st numbers for the rest of the season.

The pitching is not as advertised.


The Reds' problem is so obvious that you don't have to pay some guy millions as GM to figure it out. They have two players who earn $25 million per year together and who are paid to hit and haven't done so this year.

Yeah, you didn't really figure it out. It starts with a lineup that most often begins with this:

Corey Patterson: .268 OBP
Jeff Keppinger: .339 OBP
Ken Griffey Jr.: .333 OBP
Brandon Phillips: .320 OBP

Then the lineup really starts:

Adam Dunn: .381 OBP
Edwin Encarnacion: .373 OBP
Joey Votto: .337 OBP
Jorge Posada's Clone: .373 OBP

Now, Bako isn't going to continue to reach base that often, but the remainder of those hitters are producing OBP numbers close to what I'd expect for the rest of the season. It's lineup stupidity, especially with both Votto and Encarnacion actually slugging. Here's how Baker's inane lineups have broken out by slot:

#1: .328 OBP (NL Rank: 11th)
#2: .310 OBP (NL Rank: 11th)
#3: .323 OBP (NL Rank: 11th)
#4: .325 OBP (NL Rank: 13th)
#5: .402 OBP (NL Rank: 4th)
#6: .345 OBP (NL Rank: 3rd)
#7: .357 OBP (NL Rank: 6th)
#8: .354 OBP (NL Rank: 5th)

That's just peachy. Baker's mechanizations haven't produced an OBP above .328 in one of the top four slots in the lineup this season. He's been given a solid list of players and then has completely mis-used them. To have every single lineup slot below 5 lower than a .330 OBP is plain stupid. It shouldn't possibly happen with the current mix of players, yet it has. And Baker's issues continue to be compounded by things like a the "success" of a light-hitting "matchup" lineup that bashed a completely helpless Barry Zito because those random successes reinforce that poor Manager actually did something right.

Baker can't be fired soon enough. The current offensive funk is not an issue of a poor mix of offensive players. It's an issue of utilization and strategy. and frankly, considering the issues in the clubhouse we've seen brought to light in the media (Freel, Hatteberg, Phillips), I'd suggest that Baker's ability to "manage" the clubhouse was overblown and that his own suggestion of being able to somehow lure players to Cincinnati was ludicrous.

Right now, the issue is the pitching and the manager. It sure as heck isn't Dunn and it actually isn't even Griffey. Plenty of teams can survive with the kind of offensive mix the Reds have if the pitching is actually good and the offensive players are used properly by a capable manager.

This is not one of those teams.

WVRedsFan
05-03-2008, 01:09 AM
Great to have good pitching, but Wayne badly overestimated this offense's ability to make runs without last year's best player. Rangers need pitching. Can we get back Josh for Arroyo maybe?

I think you hit on something, though most will disagree. This team was designed and formulated on the premise that you win with pitching and defense, so pitching became the main focus without the defense. We saw a pretty good defensive outfielder traded to Washington for pitching (I won't mention that poor fielding SS). We saw a good outfielder who could hit (as the aforementioned outfielder) traded to Texas for pitching. We have potentially good offense at first base (though he's young) and at second base. We now see that the SS we have goes through periods of ground outs when he plays every day. Our third sacker is wildly inconsistent. Our corner outfielders are either aging or not hitting and our centerfielder is simply clueless at the plate. Our catchers might be the worst in the majors.

But, by god, we've got pitching. So good, we're 21st in the league.

Sad.

jojo
05-03-2008, 01:46 AM
Actually, coming into tonight, the Reds' team ERA stood at 107% of league average. Last season, they were 111% of league average. While the ERA number looks like it's improved dramatically, the team's standing versus the league really hasn't improved very much- and this is after an April that has been abnormally cold and it's a time when the pitchers are generally ahead of the hitters anyway. For example, through May 1st of last season, teams allowed 4.40 Runs per game and 4.84 Runs over the remainder of the season. Only two teams (ATL, WAS) produced R/G averages of 0.10 or more lower than their through-May 1st numbers for the rest of the season.

The pitching is not as advertised.



Yeah, you didn't really figure it out. It starts with a lineup that most often begins with this:

Corey Patterson: .268 OBP
Jeff Keppinger: .339 OBP
Ken Griffey Jr.: .333 OBP
Brandon Phillips: .320 OBP

Then the lineup really starts:

Adam Dunn: .381 OBP
Edwin Encarnacion: .373 OBP
Joey Votto: .337 OBP
Jorge Posada's Clone: .373 OBP

Now, Bako isn't going to continue to reach base that often, but the remainder of those hitters are producing OBP numbers close to what I'd expect for the rest of the season. It's lineup stupidity, especially with both Votto and Encarnacion actually slugging. Here's how Baker's inane lineups have broken out by slot:

#1: .328 OBP (NL Rank: 11th)
#2: .310 OBP (NL Rank: 11th)
#3: .323 OBP (NL Rank: 11th)
#4: .325 OBP (NL Rank: 13th)
#5: .402 OBP (NL Rank: 4th)
#6: .345 OBP (NL Rank: 3rd)
#7: .357 OBP (NL Rank: 6th)
#8: .354 OBP (NL Rank: 5th)

That's just peachy. Baker's mechanizations haven't produced an OBP above .328 in one of the top four slots in the lineup this season. He's been given a solid list of players and then has completely mis-used them. To have every single lineup slot below 5 lower than a .330 OBP is plain stupid. It shouldn't possibly happen with the current mix of players, yet it has. And Baker's issues continue to be compounded by things like a the "success" of a light-hitting "matchup" lineup that bashed a completely helpless Barry Zito because those random successes reinforce that poor Manager actually did something right.

Baker can't be fired soon enough. The current offensive funk is not an issue of a poor mix of offensive players. It's an issue of utilization and strategy. and frankly, considering the issues in the clubhouse we've seen brought to light in the media (Freel, Hatteberg, Phillips), I'd suggest that Baker's ability to "manage" the clubhouse was overblown and that his own suggestion of being able to somehow lure players to Cincinnati was ludicrous.

Right now, the issue is the pitching and the manager. It sure as heck isn't Dunn and it actually isn't even Griffey. Plenty of teams can survive with the kind of offensive mix the Reds have if the pitching is actually good and the offensive players are used properly by a capable manager.

This is not one of those teams.

A well said mouthful....

Kc61
05-03-2008, 01:58 AM
A well said mouthful....


The Reds team ERA is about .65 runs per game better than last year. That's not improvement? Ok. Fine.

People can use all kinds of metrics to reach the conclusion they want, including rants against the manager.

But the pitching is better and the offense is terrible.

AmarilloRed
05-03-2008, 02:02 AM
This team has been designed around the premise that both Dunn and Griffey will contribute a large part of the offense; we see what happens when they are not quite as productive. We may simply have to count on younger players like Edwin, Votto, and Brandon Phillips to take a greater role in scoring runs, but it will require putting Griffey and Dunn down lower in the batting order.

VR
05-03-2008, 02:07 AM
11 losses when they've given up 5 runs or less

Upper 1/3 of the league in every important pitching metric

17 games scoring 3 or fewer runs.



I think hitting might be part of the problem....and pitching isn't quiteas bad as 'team era' might make it out to be.

jojo
05-03-2008, 02:12 AM
The Reds team ERA is about .65 runs per game better than last year. That's not improvement? Ok. Fine.

People can use all kinds of metrics to reach the conclusion they want, including rants against the manager.

But the pitching is better and the offense is terrible.

I think Steel's point was that viewing the Reds team ERA in a vacuum isn't informative.. or rather, comparing the Reds against themselves isn't as meaningful as comparing how they've changed relative to their competitors.

I disagree with the notion that using the league as a baseline is cherry picking.

OnBaseMachine
05-03-2008, 02:27 AM
11 losses when they've given up 5 runs or less

Upper 1/3 of the league in every important pitching metric

17 games scoring 3 or fewer runs.



I think hitting might be part of the problem....and pitching isn't quiteas bad as 'team era' might make it out to be.

Yep. Good post.

The Reds have lost seven games this year where the pitching held the opponent to four runs or less in a nine inning game and lost. The offense has been the main culprit to this slow start.

reds44
05-03-2008, 02:28 AM
We have a .65 RPG improvement in ERA, how much worse are we in runs scored?

fearofpopvol1
05-03-2008, 02:30 AM
Every game the Reds have lost this season (except for 1) has been a game in which they have not hit a home run. All but 1! The Reds are in the bottom third for runs scored, bottom third in RBIs and nearly in the bottom third for batting average.

Lineup construction and the manager can bear some blame, but I don't care how good or bad the lineup construction is. If you can't win ball games where you don't hit home runs, you're not a good team offensively.

WVRedsFan
05-03-2008, 03:03 AM
Every game the Reds have lost this season (except for 1) has been a game in which they have not hit a home run. All but 1! The Reds are in the bottom third for runs scored, bottom third in RBIs and nearly in the bottom third for batting average.

Lineup construction and the manager can bear some blame, but I don't care how good or bad the lineup construction is. If you can't win ball games where you don't hit home runs, you're not a good team offensively.

That's true, but isn't that the American League model in theory?

Back when we were scoring nearly 900 runs a season, teh pitching staff was horrilble. Now that the pitching is better, and it is, we can't score runs. You have to look at what we've done and I'll call it like I see it--an exhange for pitching (I won't mention defnese because I don't see much difference) at the expense of offense.

I hate to bring this up because there are so many Krivsky fans on this board (and on the post-game show tonight where I learned that all is lost because the impatient Castellini canned Krivsky). Truth is, the Reds, in their small market view of things, would spend god awful millions on a closer, forgot that you have to score runs to win. Pitching that allows 2 runs should be enough, but that's not the case. When you live 81 games in the bandbox that is GABP, you'd better score runs. ON the road, just like tonight, you have to score runs. Our pitcher did his job and we failied because we cannot score. It's time to emphasize the offensive side of the ball. We need some right handed hitting and we need a catcher who can hit. We need someone in center who can not only field, but hit (it ain't Freel). We need Jay Bruce up here to fail and learn. We need intelligent base running.

This team is flawed and has been for the last two years.

fearofpopvol1
05-03-2008, 03:10 AM
That's true, but isn't that the American League model in theory?

Back when we were scoring nearly 900 runs a season, teh pitching staff was horrilble. Now that the pitching is better, and it is, we can't score runs. You have to look at what we've done and I'll call it like I see it--an exhange for pitching (I won't mention defnese because I don't see much difference) at the expense of offense.

I hate to bring this up because there are so many Krivsky fans on this board (and on the post-game show tonight where I learned that all is lost because the impatient Castellini canned Krivsky). Truth is, the Reds, in their small market view of things, would spend god awful millions on a closer, forgot that you have to score runs to win. Pitching that allows 2 runs should be enough, but that's not the case. When you live 81 games in the bandbox that is GABP, you'd better score runs. ON the road, just like tonight, you have to score runs. Our pitcher did his job and we failied because we cannot score. It's time to emphasize the offensive side of the ball. We need some right handed hitting and we need a catcher who can hit. We need someone in center who can not only field, but hit (it ain't Freel). We need Jay Bruce up here to fail and learn. We need intelligent base running.

This team is flawed and has been for the last two years.

Oh, I'm all for trading offense for pitching. I'm a huge proponent of it and still love the Volquez for Hamilton trade. The Reds offense looks pretty good on paper (no matter how the lineup is constructed), but they just can't put it together and that is what is frustrating. The pitching isn't lights out, but it is improved and with even a little bit better run support, the Reds are probably at least a .500 team right now.

3 hits in 9 innings and 0 runs ain't going to win you jack, no matter how awesome your lineup construction is.

WMR
05-03-2008, 03:15 AM
DUSTY: STOP "THINKING ABOUT" MAKING CHANGES AND START MAKING THEM!!!

:rolleyes:

cincyinco
05-03-2008, 04:30 AM
JOCKETTY: STOP "ASSESSING" AND "THINKING ABOUT" MAKING CHANGES AND START MAKING THEM!!

the ones that need to be made are obvious.

For all those who weren't sad to see Krivsky go, why are you now settling for the same from Jocketty? Where is the call to action? If this team is so obviouisly flawed, why can't a great GM such as Jocketty at least make more of a move than Bray up and Todd C down.

GAC
05-03-2008, 05:30 AM
21st in team ERA in MLB.

I thought ERA was not the best indicator for evaluating pitching? Now it is?

RedlegJake
05-03-2008, 07:50 AM
The pitching has improved. Here's where I part ways with Steel. The word is improvement not greatness. Yes, this is an improved pitching staff. BUT the improvement comes from Volquez, and Cueto - who is experiencing severe rookie turbulence. It comes from a closer that rarely gets a chance to be used. It comes from an ace who gets no run support at all. It comes from Burton, and it comes from guys in the middle who have pitched well but rarely get to do it with a lead because the Reds don't score. The front end of both the starters and the pen have improved - quite a bit. But starters 4 & 5 - in quality - not necessarily rotational order, are much worse than last year's. Coffey, Belisle, Fogg, Arroyo. There go about 65 earned runs. SIXTY FIVE! In 70 innings or so. Humungously bad.

The improvement is there, but so is the huge collapse. Arroyo has fallen apart to date. Belisle's "come together" year never has. Coffey has been terrible. And Fogg did what nearly everyone predicted for him. 4 names. That is your lack of improvement. Condemning the staff as a whole doesn't make sense. There is improvement but it like saying a guy with his leg hacked off is improved because the rest of his body is in great shape.

Dunn. Come on. How can anyone say he is doing his job? Yes, he is walking his way on base. And that is it. Period. The guy is contact challenged so far, in a Dunnish slump. Occasional homer and nothing else. He is not driving in runs and not scoring many either. I agree Dusty is misusing him but the rush to defend Dunner when he isn't going good gets almost silly, as if he can't ever be criticized. The guy is having a horrific start. I love Dunn and I am not worried about him getting it going. But to claim he hasn't been in a slump or hurt the offense at all this season is, imo, just wrong.

Where I do agree is if Dunn is slumping yet still walking, wouldn't a smart manager bat him like 2nd or so to maximize at least his opps to be on base ahead of guys who ARE hitting? And wouldn't the guys who are hitting be 3rd and 4th and 5th in order to get the best rbi opps? Finally, wouldn't the lowest OBP guys be at the end of the lineup? We've played enough season for these adjustments to have been made.

When you leave 13 or 14 guys on base and score just one or two - maybe the lineup construction was the problem. When you get three hits, though, who cares? Three hits won't win about 99% of the time no matter how you construct your lineup.

In the last Saint Louis game, in Mercker's 3 run inning, Freel made such a horrible jump (in the wrong direction) on the "single" that started things, that I was surprised when it was scored a hit. There's the elusive third out they couldn't seem to get. It was actually the first one of the inning that was never made. This kind of play occurs in the Reds outfield on a nightly basis. Just change the name of the fielder. There are 5 outfielders (6 if you count Hairston) and only one of them is a decent fielder. EE is playing better but his early gaffe's hurt, Kepp's range is limited. Add it up and the defense has seriously hurt the better pitchers on the Reds. The "bad four" have been so bad it really hasn't mattered for them.

When bad pitchers have their best game of the year against the Reds, and ailing good pitchers always get healthy against the Reds, when you get just three lousy hits against a guy who couldn't get past the third inning in two of his last three starts and when that is a consistent type of performance, and it is May, then the problem is offense. The pitching has delivered enough low scoring lines to net 17 or 18 wins. And the offensive numbers are majorly improved by three or four blowout games while being completely snuffed in the rest. BA or hitting with RISP is not the problem. You need to hit enough to have RISP. That is the problem. You need enough guys on to hit 3 run homers. And that much is NOT Dunn's fault.

70% of the way to a really good pitching staff, a terrible outfield defense, an OBP challenged lineup that is not producing RISP situations. What you have is pretty bad ballcub.

Here's the rub. Arroyo can start pitching like his last outing. Belisle can settle down and just pitch as well as last year. That'll work for a#5. Cueto can get re-settled now, and from time to time with Soto sessions. That quickly and easily this staff can become very good, a full 100% top caliber staff. Or Bailey could come up and pitch well. The point being the pitching really is that close.

The scary part is its just that close to being a horrible staff, too. Volquez could have control issues crop up, Cueto never settle down, Arroyo keep pitching badly, Belisle fall apart, Bailey flop and the pen get burned out. I'd rather be optimistic, though, because if that happens the Reds are cooked for a long, long time.

The offense and defense mix is a problem without an easy solution. It's exascerbated by a manager that doesn't seem to get the idea of OBP at all, by an aging star who makes too much for his production (perhaps not for his box office but that's a marketing question not a performance issue) and one with a huge contract question looming (is he worth $15 million a year?), by a lefty heavy lineup, a weak bench, and outside of Bruce, no help at all from the farm (hitting wise) for at least another full year and probably a bit longer.

That leaves it up to Jocketty and trades to remake this team. I don't think this offense can sustain a run of high scoring games. The defense isn't going to help out the pitching, so it falls squarely on the pitching to make any run and the pitching isn't there just yet. My bet is by the deadline Jocketty will be in FULL "Trader Walt" mode, the Reds will be in 4th or 5th place and the end of the year will see us sans Junior and Dunn, making a meaningless winning run but hopefully in a better position for next year.

RedlegJake
05-03-2008, 08:00 AM
JOCKETTY: STOP "ASSESSING" AND "THINKING ABOUT" MAKING CHANGES AND START MAKING THEM!!

the ones that need to be made are obvious.

For all those who weren't sad to see Krivsky go, why are you now settling for the same from Jocketty? Where is the call to action? If this team is so obviouisly flawed, why can't a great GM such as Jocketty at least make more of a move than Bray up and Todd C down.

Boy, the guy has been GM for what? A week? Isn't that just a bit of rush? And what moves do you specifically mean that are obvious? Are there a coven of GMs out there all agog to help Walt improve the Reds so he can just quickly make all the right deals in week one?

Spring~Fields
05-03-2008, 08:14 AM
Then the lineup really starts:

Adam Dunn: .381 OBP
Edwin Encarnacion: .373 OBP
Joey Votto: .337 OBP
Jorge Posada's Clone: .373 OBP

Now, Bako isn't going to continue to reach base that often, but the remainder of those hitters are producing OBP numbers close to what I'd expect for the rest of the season. It's lineup stupidity, especially with both Votto and Encarnacion actually slugging. Here's how Baker's inane lineups have broken out by slot:

#1: .328 OBP (NL Rank: 11th)
#2: .310 OBP (NL Rank: 11th)
#3: .323 OBP (NL Rank: 11th)
#4: .325 OBP (NL Rank: 13th)
#5: .402 OBP (NL Rank: 4th)
#6: .345 OBP (NL Rank: 3rd)
#7: .357 OBP (NL Rank: 6th)
#8: .354 OBP (NL Rank: 5th)

That's just peachy. Baker's mechanizations haven't produced an OBP above .328 in one of the top four slots in the lineup this season. He's been given a solid list of players and then has completely mis-used them. To have every single lineup slot below 5 lower than a .330 OBP is plain stupid. It shouldn't possibly happen with the current mix of players, yet it has. And Baker's issues continue to be compounded by things like a the "success" of a light-hitting "matchup" lineup that bashed a completely helpless Barry Zito because those random successes reinforce that poor Manager actually did something right.

Baker can't be fired soon enough. The current offensive funk is not an issue of a poor mix of offensive players. It's an issue of utilization and strategy. and frankly, considering the issues in the clubhouse we've seen brought to light in the media (Freel, Hatteberg, Phillips), I'd suggest that Baker's ability to "manage" the clubhouse was overblown

Finally someone, someone who is really looking and paying attention, better yet, applying what they see.



and that his own suggestion of being able to somehow lure players to Cincinnati was ludicrous.

The next time that Dusty implies or says something like that I think that we all should take it as a personal threat.

Spring~Fields
05-03-2008, 08:34 AM
Where I do agree is if Dunn is slumping yet still walking, wouldn't a smart manager bat him like 2nd or so to maximize at least his opps to be on base ahead of guys who ARE hitting? And wouldn't the guys who are hitting be 3rd and 4th and 5th in order to get the best rbi opps? Finally, wouldn't the lowest OBP guys be at the end of the lineup? We've played enough season for these adjustments to have been made.



This is an area where something can be done, as we have seen over and over it isn't being dealt with. I have to assume that this manager actually believes that he is right in spite of what he sees to the contrary.

Spring~Fields
05-03-2008, 09:07 AM
Hot Off The Press !

Daily insights from Dusty.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080503/SPT04/805030423/

"You get one big guy hot in the middle - not to put pressure on them - but that's what we need."

Baker said he's considered moving Edwin Encarnacion or Joey Votto up in the lineup.

"I've thought about it," he said. "I thought about moving Edwin up, which I did already. I had him hit fourth once.

"I thought about moving Votto up but it's difficult with all those left-handers."

"Don't think I haven't tried everything in my mind," he said. "I've written down more ink and thrown away more papers, trying to figure out how not to have four lefties in a row or four out of five.

"Then it comes down to who would be sixth or seventh."



:pray: insert serenity prayer here.

Note to Dusty: Below took 15 seconds to comprise
Keppinger
Dunn
Encarcion
Votto
Phillips
Griffey
Freel
Bako

GAC
05-03-2008, 09:35 AM
Where I do agree is if Dunn is slumping yet still walking, wouldn't a smart manager bat him like 2nd or so to maximize at least his opps to be on base ahead of guys who ARE hitting? And wouldn't the guys who are hitting be 3rd and 4th and 5th in order to get the best rbi opps? Finally, wouldn't the lowest OBP guys be at the end of the lineup? We've played enough season for these adjustments to have been made.

You would think. At least try to draw some positives out of what Dunn is doing, which is drawing BBs and getting on base. But I'm realizing that Dusty is one stubborn manager who manages like he still has (or wants) a Barry Bonds in the lineup. Where did he bat Barry? ;)

All Dusty says is that we need one of our 3-4-5 hitters to get hot. I'm on Amazon now looking for a deal on flame throwers and asbestos boxer shorts. ;)

Falls City Beer
05-03-2008, 10:02 AM
No... it's not. the relative ranking tells us almost nothing...

Not by the end of the year. If the Reds linger in the bottom ten ERA-wise all season, they'll be an afterthought.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2008, 10:04 AM
I thought ERA was not the best indicator for evaluating pitching? Now it is?

For an entire team, it does the trick for the most part. For an individual, it's pretty blunt.

jojo
05-03-2008, 10:12 AM
For an entire team, it does the trick for the most part. For an individual, it's pretty blunt.

It's still pretty helpful to include team defense too. For instance, Cincy is rated 25th in the league by team defensive efficiency.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204024

BTW, there was discussion at one time (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63856&highlight=defensive+runs&page=2) about the impact of the Bartlett addition would have on the Rays defense. Look where TBA rates though May 2nd compared to their dead last ranking of '07.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2008, 10:22 AM
It's still pretty helpful to include team defense too.

True. It's not at all perfect, but it's tough to use the finer individual metrics for a team in any meaningful way, IMO.

Spring~Fields
05-03-2008, 10:32 AM
For an entire team, it does the trick for the most part. For an individual, it's pretty blunt.


Pitching Statistics
NAME WHIP ERA
Bill Bray 2.25 0.00
E. Volquez 1.19 1.27
J. Affeldt 1.08 1.38
F. Cordero 1.00 1.64
Mike Lincoln 1.15 2.77
Aaron Harang 1.08 2.98
Kent Mercker 1.35 3.48
Jared Burton 1.30 3.65
D. Weathers 2.32 4.91
Totals 2.45

Johnny Cueto 1.09 5.40
Todd Coffey 1.57 6.46
B. Arroyo 1.77 6.97
Josh Fogg 1.47 8.24
Matt Belisle 2.11 9.00
Totals 1.34 4.27

GAC
05-03-2008, 10:53 AM
For an entire team, it does the trick for the most part. For an individual, it's pretty blunt.


The bullpen's ERA is 10th in MLB at 3.27, and holding up remarkably well in various other categories overall, despite guys like Coffey who I'm glad has been demoted.

Overall team ERA is 4.27, which is an improvement from last year.

As for the starting pitching, there is certainly room for improvement (4th - 4.95), and those woes, for the most part, can be squarely blamed on Arroyo (6 starts), Fogg (3), and Belisle (2).

Fogg, thankfully, is out of the rotation. Arroyo and Belisle? We'll see. Cueto has had his struggles too; but the potential for improvement is there, and I think patience needs to be shown to allow him the time/opportunities to correct it. The ML experience he is getting right now can be valuable to him. One can call it "growing pains" or whatever when enduring Cueto; but unless he starts consistently getting rocked, then he needs to stay here.

If Bailey continues to show improvement, then I say "Yes" this team is heading in the right direction as far as pitching goes, and in comparison to what we have thrown out there over the last several years.

Sea Ray
05-03-2008, 11:06 AM
The Reds team ERA is about .65 runs per game better than last year. That's not improvement? Ok. Fine.

People can use all kinds of metrics to reach the conclusion they want, including rants against the manager.

But the pitching is better and the offense is terrible.

Didn't you get the memo? It's the manager's fault this team isn't hitting. It's the manager's fault Dunn has 11 RBIs. Those guys in front of him just are never on base when Dunn comes to the plate.

If we're going to solely use OBP as to where guys hit in the lineup Babe Ruth should have hit leadoff.

I don't know if the numbers show the pitching is better. I do know I don't sweat out the 8th and 9th innings like I did last year. I know Aaron Harang never gets runs to win games and I don't see any hitter on this team having an All Star year

Spring~Fields
05-03-2008, 11:22 AM
Didn't you get the memo? It's the manager's fault this team isn't hitting.
If we're going to solely use OBP as to where guys hit in the lineup Babe Ruth should have hit leadoff.




Helps to apply the SLG with the OBP, objective facts, something that Dusty never comments on in his subjective musings or when speaking on his conjecture. I wonder why those objective facts are void from his discussions?

jojo
05-03-2008, 11:53 AM
Didn't you get the memo? It's the manager's fault this team isn't hitting.

Lets ignore saber philosophy. You have to admit it would be interesting if during a presser someone asked Dusty why he has consistently given the most PAs to the guys who make the most outs.....

Sea Ray
05-03-2008, 12:15 PM
Lets ignore saber philosophy. You have to admit it would be interesting if during a presser someone asked Dusty why he has consistently given the most PAs to the guys who make the most outs.....

I'm with you 100% there. I'd even be on board with trying Springfield's lineup for a few games:


Note to Dusty: Below took 15 seconds to comprise
Keppinger
Dunn
Encarcion
Votto
Phillips
Griffey
Freel
Bako

Spring~Fields
05-03-2008, 01:58 PM
I'm with you 100% there. I'd even be on board with trying Springfield's lineup for a few games:

I was just making light of the degree of difficulty that Dusty seemed to express in the Fay story. Sounded like he was mowing down those forest to have the paper to write on, and those left handed bats made his world impossible. ;)




Originally Posted by jojo
You have to admit it would be interesting if during a presser someone asked Dusty why he has consistently given the most PAs to the guys who make the most outs.....

I would probably miss it, but I would love to hear his explanations. If he keeps talking, eventually someone will have to remind him, and read him his rights before he speaks. ;) "what you say can be and will be"

Spring~Fields
05-03-2008, 02:08 PM
Team Aggregate Stats: ERA 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004
Year - Pos GP ERA
2008 - 10 Cincinnati 30 12 18 4.27
2007 - 15 Cincinnati 162 72 90 4.94
2006 - 7 Cincinnati 162 80 82 4.51
2005 - 16 Cincinnati 162 73 89 5.15
2004 - 15 Cincinnati 162 76 86 5.19

Team Aggregate Stats: ERA, April - 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004
Month - Pos GP ERA
April 08 - 11 Cincinnati 28 12 16 4.42
April 07 - 7 Cincinnati 25 12 13 3.80
April 06 - 12 Cincinnati 25 17 8 4.85
April 05 - 15 Cincinnati 23 10 13 5.05
April 04 - 12 Cincinnati 22 12 10 4.95


Team Aggregate Stats: Batting 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004
Year - Pos BA OBP SLG OPS
2008 - 12 Cincinnati .251 .322 .411 .733
2007 - 7 Cincinnati .267 .335 .436 .772
2006 - 9 Cincinnati .257 .336 .432 .768
2005 - 1 Cincinnati .261 .339 .446 .785
2004 - 10 Cincinnati .250 .331 .418 .749

Team Aggregate Stats: Batting, April - 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004
Month - Pos BA OBP SLG OPS
April 08 - 8 Cincinnati .261 .331 .428 .760
April 07 - 10 Cincinnati .246 .319 .393 .712
April 06 - 1 Cincinnati .267 .362 .468 .831
April 05 - 11 Cincinnati .253 .341 .417 .759
April 04 - 11 Cincinnati .250 .353 .412 .766

Team Aggregate Stats: Fielding, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004
Year - POS GP E FPCT
2008 - 11 Cincinnati 30 20 .982
2007 - 7 Cincinnati 162 95 .984
2006 - 15 Cincinnati 162 128 .979
2005 - 11 Cincinnati 162 104 .983
2004 - 13 Cincinnati 162 113 .981

When looking at April past and present. It looks like to me that the hitting and pitching is improved, but the team is still losing, am I interpreting that correctly?

LoganBuck
05-03-2008, 03:09 PM
I predicted 70 wins.

Sadly

PuffyPig
05-03-2008, 03:18 PM
I see no reason for the Reds to win a game this series.

One reason would be that the odds of any three game series (no matter the teams) is always against that a certain team will be swept.

edabbs44
05-03-2008, 03:23 PM
Note to Dusty: Below took 15 seconds to comprise
Keppinger
Dunn
Encarcion
Votto
Phillips
Griffey
Freel
Bako

First things first, I really don't disagree with this lineup.

However...this is easy to say now. In fact, this is probably what Dusty should be rolling out there today. But how will we all react in 2 weeks if Edwin goes in the tank for a bit? If Votto disappears? If Jr gets hot? Is it time to turn the lineup upside down again? Edwin was AAA fodder to some 2 weeks ago and Hatteberg was deserving of time only a short while back. Now EdE and Votto are our 3-4 combo?

Also, since some of us believe that Dunn will hit well in the 2 hole and not in the 5 hole, what if Edwin hits better 6th than 3rd? What if Votto struggles in the 4 hole? What then? Who can we blame then?

Bottom line is that these guys need to produce. 1st, 4th or 9th, they need to hit. Griffey's stats right now won't play in any spot and moving Dunn up to 2nd isn't going to make him earn his paycheck any more if he continues to be a black hole offensively.

We can nitpick the lineup construction all we want but it doesn't change the fact that there are certain people in this lineup who need to step it up.

fearofpopvol1
05-03-2008, 03:38 PM
Dusty's too big of a player's manager to bat Griffey that low. He would never treat his superstar that way.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2008, 03:38 PM
One reason would be that the odds of any three game series (no matter the teams) is always against that a certain team will be swept.

Usually. But this is the Reds.

RedsManRick
05-03-2008, 04:49 PM
First things first, I really don't disagree with this lineup.

However...this is easy to say now. In fact, this is probably what Dusty should be rolling out there today. But how will we all react in 2 weeks if Edwin goes in the tank for a bit? If Votto disappears? If Jr gets hot? Is it time to turn the lineup upside down again? Edwin was AAA fodder to some 2 weeks ago and Hatteberg was deserving of time only a short while back. Now EdE and Votto are our 3-4 combo?


We have to be careful not to combine different people's opinions. It's not that people are changing their minds so much as some people's voices are louder or quieter depending on the events of the day.

Many of us would have argued for a lineup such as the one you quoted from the very start. The time to "turn the lineup upside down" was the first week of April. It's just that now there is some supporting evidence...

Spring~Fields
05-03-2008, 05:40 PM
First things first, I really don't disagree with this lineup.

However...this is easy to say now. In fact, this is probably what Dusty should be rolling out there today. But how will we all react in 2 weeks if Edwin goes in the tank for a bit? If Votto disappears? If Jr gets hot? Is it time to turn the lineup upside down again? Edwin was AAA fodder to some 2 weeks ago and Hatteberg was deserving of time only a short while back. Now EdE and Votto are our 3-4 combo?

Also, since some of us believe that Dunn will hit well in the 2 hole and not in the 5 hole, what if Edwin hits better 6th than 3rd? What if Votto struggles in the 4 hole? What then? Who can we blame then?

Bottom line is that these guys need to produce. 1st, 4th or 9th, they need to hit. Griffey's stats right now won't play in any spot and moving Dunn up to 2nd isn't going to make him earn his paycheck any more if he continues to be a black hole offensively.

We can nitpick the lineup construction all we want but it doesn't change the fact that there are certain people in this lineup who need to step it up.


Those points that you are making are valid in my mind.

I think that by playing the higher statistical percentages of OBP in the upper slots followed by SLG and so forth will cover many of the points that you are making. Of course modifications or adaptation will come into play. As you are pointing that hot and cold players go through periods where they slump or vice versa etc.

One of the intangibles might be that a Votto or Encarcion and Dunn actually hit better for sustained periods of time vs. where they have been positioned.

It would be nice if the Reds had several players who had a nice OPS, OBP and SLG combined, that would make it easy, and as they say, the lineup probably wouldn't matter much in a case like that. Dusty has a mixed bag to deal with.

Some of Dusty’s lineup problem is that of locking Griffey in the 3 slot and having Dunn or Phillips protect him, that hasn’t worked. Dusty has enough flexibility with that list of players, to have a fixed lineup or to make occasional adjustments as needed, but he should not cater to any.

To just out of hand deny that Dunn would be better off hitting in the 2-3 and Phillips would be better off out of the cleanup spot, and to just fix Encarcion and Votto down in the lineup and not move them up with a larger sample size trial than once or twice in that slot is an error in judgment to me.

Dusty appears to try to play what use to be, Griffey, or what should be, Dunn, or what might have been, Patterson etc., He needs to play what is in the present reality.

Spring~Fields
05-03-2008, 05:44 PM
We have to be careful not to combine different people's opinions. It's not that people are changing their minds so much as some people's voices are louder or quieter depending on the events of the day.

Many of us would have argued for a lineup such as the one you quoted from the very start. The time to "turn the lineup upside down" was the first week of April. It's just that now there is some supporting evidence...

Very true. I have seen in the past two years or more where many of you have tried to persuade the rest of us regarding such a lineup, and I believe that each of you were and are right.