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Benihana
05-03-2008, 07:14 PM
I was shocked to learn that the Cubs sent Hill down to the minors today because of his control problems. He was supposed to be the Cubs #2 starter this year. He's a young lefty workhorse with some decent success (ERA < 4.00 over the last two seasons) at the ML level. He's also a big strikeout guy with one of the best curveballs in the league. Originally a Reds draftee out of high school, I would love to try and buy low on this guy. Granted, the Cubs may not be interested in selling low (and selling low on Hill would still net a decent return) but I'd see if I could pry him loose.

There have been rumblings of Jr. rumors here in Chicago despite their lack of a need for an OF. I'd dangle Jr. and toss in some sweeteners (Francisco/Maloney?) to see if it would pique their interest.

If they have no interest in Jr., I'd float the idea of an Arroyo/Hill swap. They'd get a guy who could step into their playoff-ready rotation and we'd get younger, cheaper, and left-handed. Bronson's contract certainly wouldn't be an issue for the Cubs.

Finally if all else fails, maybe he would even be a candidate for an Adam Dunn swap if the Reds decide not to re-sign Dunn. Dunn's always hit well in Wrigley, and as long as the Cubs would be willing to slide Soriano back over to CF and put up with a horrible OF defense, it could be worth a shot. I'd rather keep Dunn, but I'd love to move him for Hill and then make a run at Teixeira.

Regardless, I think Hill is someone we should be targeting. Imagine this rotation for the next four years:

Harang
Volquez
Hill
Cueto
Bailey/Thompson

What do you think- what would it take?

Benihana
05-03-2008, 08:41 PM
Alex Gonzalez strikes me as a guy the Cubs may have use for as well. I'd dangle him as a sweetener for any of these deals as well.

reds44
05-03-2008, 08:43 PM
I'm not trading anymore offense on this team for pitching right now, especially for Rich Hill, who I think very little of. I think it's very little Maloney will end up being just as good or better than Hill. Hill's got 2 pitches, and he hasn't been getting his curve over this year. He's already 28 years old so he isn't even young anymore.

When we deal Dunn, we need to get a bat in return.

Benihana
05-03-2008, 08:44 PM
I'm not trading anymore offense on this team for pitching right now, especially for Rich Hill, who I think very little of.

When we deal Dunn, we need to get a bat in return.

Sign Teixeira. I may put it in my signature soon.

And FWIW, Dunn would be the last option when talking about a deal for Rich Hill. I'd try to sell them on Jr. first and Arroyo second.

reds44
05-03-2008, 08:46 PM
Sign Teixeira. I may put it in my signature soon.

And FWIW, Dunn would be the last option when talking about a deal for Rich Hill. I'd try to sell them on Jr. first and Arroyo second.
I don't even know if I'd do Bronson for Hill, and if I would it would be because of BA's contract alone. If you sign Teixeira you are going to move Votto from 1B where he is a + athlete, to LF where he is neutral at best and as he gets older will quickly become -, and you lock yourself in with EE at 3rd.

I don't think, nor do I really want, the Reds to poney up the kind of cash Mark is going to get on the open market either.

Benihana
05-03-2008, 08:51 PM
I don't even know if I'd do Bronson for Hill, and if I would it would be because of BA's contract alone. If you sign Teixeira you are going to move Votto from 1B where he is a + athlete, to LF where he is neutral at best and as he gets older will quickly become -, and you lock yourself in with EE at 1st.

I don't think, nor do I really want, the Reds to poney up the kind of cash Mark is going to get on the open market either.

Well I would definitely trade Arroyo for Hill, no question about it. Hill has much better stuff, is younger, cheaper, and left handed. He would give the Reds a tremendous amount of payflex to sign someone like Texeira, and will only get better while Arroyo will only get worse. Gee, let me think about that one...

I'd much rather have Votto in LF and Teixeira at 1B than Dunn in LF and Votto in 1B. Matt Kemp is not going to be traded. So let me ask you, who would you be targeting?

reds44
05-03-2008, 08:56 PM
Well I would definitely trade Arroyo for Hill, no question about it. Hill has much better stuff, is younger, cheaper, and left handed. He would give the Reds a tremendous amount of payflex to sign someone like Texeira, and will only get better while Arroyo will only get worse. Gee, let me think about that one...

I'd much rather have Votto in LF and Teixeira at 1B than Dunn in LF and Votto in 1B. Matt Kemp is not going to be traded. So let me ask you, who would you be targeting?
Rich Hill does not have better stuff than Bronson Arroyo. No way. It's not even close. Hill might be "younger" but only by three years and he definatley isn't "young." Like I said if I was going to trade Arroyo for Hill it would only because of Bronson's contract.

I have absolutely no idea what market there is going to be for Griffey or Dunn, so it's hard for me to say who I would be targeting. I just don't think I want to see the Reds lock up 20&#37; of their payroll on one player. There are too many variables that can go bad.

Benihana
05-03-2008, 09:02 PM
Rich Hill does not have better stuff than Bronson Arroyo. No way. It's not even close. Hill might be "younger" but only by three years and he definatley isn't "young." Like I said if I was going to trade Arroyo for Hill it would only because of Bronson's contract.

I have absolutely no idea what market there is going to be for Griffey or Dunn, so it's hard for me to say who I would be targeting. I just don't think I want to see the Reds lock up 20&#37; of their payroll on one player. There are too many variables that can go bad.

Rich Hill has much better stuff than Bronson Arroyo my friend. Ask anyone who knows baseball. He has a top 3 pitch in all of baseball, and he throws at least as hard as Arroyo. Hence, much better stuff. And by the way, he's over three years younger and left-handed, something the Reds lack throughout the organization. Throw in the contract situation, and it's a no-brainer.

Benihana
05-03-2008, 09:05 PM
I have absolutely no idea what market there is going to be for Griffey or Dunn, so it's hard for me to say who I would be targeting.

Of course. This is the same response all of the "naysayer" GM's give, and the same response they all gave when panning The Trade. If you don't like the return on potential trades, then suggest a specific alternative. I challenge you.

reds44
05-03-2008, 09:11 PM
Of course. This is the same response all of the "naysayer" GM's give, and the same response they all gave when panning The Trade. If you don't like the return on potential trades, then suggest a specific alternative. I challenge you.
I'll get on the horn with GMs in baseball right now to find out what I can get. There are plenty of things I could suggest, and there probably is no chance of anything I say happening.

As for "The Trade" if that's the best the Reds could get than they shouldn't have dealt Kearn and Lopez. Easy solution.

reds44
05-03-2008, 09:16 PM
Rich Hill has much better stuff than Bronson Arroyo my friend. Ask anyone who knows baseball. He has a top 3 pitch in all of baseball, and he throws at least as hard as Arroyo. Hence, much better stuff. And by the way, he's over three years younger and left-handed, something the Reds lack throughout the organization. Throw in the contract situation, and it's a no-brainer.
Hill throws two pitches, and one of them is a fastball in the upper 80s. He can't locate that top three pitch in all of baseball. Both Arroyo and Hill rely on offspeed pitches, and Arroyo has more of them and locates them better. They throw about equally hard.

Advantage: Arroyo

Who exactly is "anyone who knows baseball" anyways? The Cubs have a starting rotation that is already suspect, and they just shipped Hill out of town. I guess Pinella, Rothschild, and Hendry don't know baseball either.

cincinnati chili
05-04-2008, 02:03 AM
I'd trade almost any player in the Reds organization for Rich Hill. I don't blame the Cubs for sending him down for a while to straighten out his release point, but let's put things in perspective.

The guy is being sent down with a 4.12 ERA.

I wish that Reds starters who got off to BAD starts, would exhibit that level of failure.

He's been dominant for a year and a half and he's only 28. He's better than any pitcher the Reds have developed since the 1980s (since Tom Browning).

No I'm not exaggerating.

Topcat
05-04-2008, 04:16 AM
hill has hit a speed bump and I truly believe the Cubs will not trade him at this time. All he needs is some time to get on track, sad for us but probably an accurate assessment.

GAC
05-04-2008, 04:28 AM
ATL will offer Mark a LTC at some point in the season.

fearofpopvol1
05-04-2008, 05:00 AM
ATL will offer Mark a LTC at some point in the season.

Doubtful he'll accept, espcially with Boras as his agent.

jojo
05-04-2008, 07:28 AM
Doubtful he'll accept, espcially with Boras as his agent.

(I quoted ya but this isn't directed at you but rather just a little rant before morning coffee)

Well the Reds should be planning to spend market rates long term at first base so they can move their cheap first baseman (whom they control for another half decade) to left because, well, left field and first base are the two hardest positions in baseball to find guys who can play there.... :cool:

/end of rant

Benihana
05-04-2008, 10:19 AM
Hill throws two pitches, and one of them is a fastball in the upper 80s. He can't locate that top three pitch in all of baseball. Both Arroyo and Hill rely on offspeed pitches, and Arroyo has more of them and locates them better. They throw about equally hard.

Advantage: Arroyo

Who exactly is "anyone who knows baseball" anyways? The Cubs have a starting rotation that is already suspect, and they just shipped Hill out of town. I guess Pinella, Rothschild, and Hendry don't know baseball either.

Um, that's a difference in command, not stuff. I think you need to consult a baseball adviser.

Since the beginning of last season, here are their numbers (including the numbers that earned Hill a demotion):

Arroyo: 4.56 ERA, 6.89 K/9
Hill: 3.95 ERA 8.30 K/9

Even if they had the same contract situations, I'd take Hill everyday of the week. When Arroyo is three years older and making over $10 MM for the next 3 years, and Hill is left-handed, once again it is a no-brainer. I think you may be the only person on the board who doesn't realize this.

Benihana
05-04-2008, 10:22 AM
(I quoted ya but this isn't directed at you but rather just a little rant before morning coffee)

Well the Reds should be planning to spend market rates long term at first base so they can move their cheap first baseman (whom they control for another half decade) to left because, well, left field and first base are the two hardest positions in baseball to find guys who can play there.... :cool:

/end of rant

I can definitely see the argument against making a run at Teixeira, but let me ask you this: Exactly what positions would the Reds have to fill over the next half decade? CF and C would be the only two positions that we wouldn't have completely locked up over that time-span, and it is clear with this lineup construction that the Reds would be looking for defense-first guys at each position, which are not that hard to find at all. So I ask you again, what (and who) exactly would you need all the extra payflex for?

*BaseClogger*
05-04-2008, 12:58 PM
Yeah, Hill's got great stuff. But he's not available (except on my fantasy team! :p:)...


(I quoted ya but this isn't directed at you but rather just a little rant before morning coffee)

Well the Reds should be planning to spend market rates long term at first base so they can move their cheap first baseman (whom they control for another half decade) to left because, well, left field and first base are the two hardest positions in baseball to find guys who can play there.... :cool:

/end of rant

I laughed.

RedlegJake
05-04-2008, 01:18 PM
Rich Hill is a lefty Arroyo. 3 years younger, much cheaper for now. Those are his advantages. Lefty, cheaper, younger. Those are pretty strong advantages. That said I don't see the Cubs giving him up, especially within the division. There have been threads about the uselessness of the no intra division trades idea but it's a fact of life in baseball. The Astros-Reds-Cards-Brewers & Pirates are the lasts teams the Cubs would consider trading Hill to.

jojo
05-04-2008, 04:24 PM
I can definitely see the argument against making a run at Teixeira, but let me ask you this: Exactly what positions would the Reds have to fill over the next half decade? CF and C would be the only two positions that we wouldn't have completely locked up over that time-span, and it is clear with this lineup construction that the Reds would be looking for defense-first guys at each position, which are not that hard to find at all. So I ask you again, what (and who) exactly would you need all the extra payflex for?

Who said anything about payflex? Efficiency and intelligence aren't "payflex" and frankly shouldn't be dismissed as pejoratives.

So I ask you again, when did paying more than is necessary become a sign of a well run franchise?

fearofpopvol1
05-04-2008, 04:39 PM
(I quoted ya but this isn't directed at you but rather just a little rant before morning coffee)

Well the Reds should be planning to spend market rates long term at first base so they can move their cheap first baseman (whom they control for another half decade) to left because, well, left field and first base are the two hardest positions in baseball to find guys who can play there.... :cool:

/end of rant

I'm actually for getting Tex. He's good defensively, he's a switch hitter (with the right side being his natural side) and it's clear the Reds need another bat. I think if you can move Dunn, the money saved from resigning Dunn long-term could be spent on signing Tex. I know the Reds will have to pay more, but Tex > Dunn.

flyer85
05-04-2008, 04:45 PM
Lou has never had much patience with the young guys. I'm guessing Lieber will move into the rotation.

*BaseClogger*
05-04-2008, 04:47 PM
LTC's for 1B that have already served their six year service time are almost always a bad idea IMO...

fearofpopvol1
05-04-2008, 04:50 PM
LTC's for 1B that have already served their six year service time are almost always a bad idea IMO...

Tex is still pretty young and in his prime. He's improved every year. It boils down to how many years. Boras/Tex probably wants 7-8 years, which is too steep.

*BaseClogger*
05-04-2008, 04:51 PM
Tex is still pretty young and in his prime. He's improved every year. It boils down to how many years. Boras/Tex probably wants 7-8 years, which is too steep.

Well yeah, I'd do it to if it were a four year contract. But it won't...

boognish
05-04-2008, 07:48 PM
Lou has never had much patience with the young guys. I'm guessing Lieber will move into the rotation.

Does anyone know if there has been an announcement?

Lieber has been the primary long relief man and even given the Cubs' taxed bullpen--owing to the control problems of Hill--Sean Marshall has found getting innings to be tough going; they are using him as a LOOGY (10 appearances, 5.1 IP). I tend to agree with Flyer that Lou will go with the veteran who never walks anyone in this situation.

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2008, 07:53 PM
Lieber is starting Wednesday vs the Reds.

Lieber vs Volquez.

boognish
05-04-2008, 08:02 PM
Lieber is starting Wednesday vs the Reds.

Lieber vs Volquez.

Rarely will a Reds fan say this with a straight face, but I was actually hoping for the young lefty in this situation. I was at the game where the Reds managed only a hit and a walk against Lieber in his return from injury last April 20, and though his career splits don't bear it out as my mind does, he always seems to mow down the Reds' hitters.

The Reds did come back to win the game I am referring to in the tenth after a Scott Hatteberg HR tied the game at 1 in the bottom of the ninth.

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2008, 08:03 PM
I was at a Lieber start in Cincy a couple years ago when he carried a perfect game into the 7th inning before Dunn singled to break it up.

btw boog, please stop attending games. ;) The Reds are 6-27 when you attend? Wow.

boognish
05-04-2008, 08:12 PM
I was at a Lieber start in Cincy a couple years ago when he carried a perfect game into the 7th inning before Dunn singled to break it up.

btw boog, please stop attending games. ;) The Reds are 6-27 when you attend? Wow.

But they already have a win with me at the ballpark this year! :D

I have truly seen some awful pitching performances in those last 33 games. Many Claussen and Milton starts. I was also at Paul Wilson's swan song, when he couldn't get out of the first against the Dodgers. If I recall correctly, the only out he recorded with his mangled arm was a sacrifice bunt by the pitcher. I felt really badly for him. I have also seen a walkoff extra inning home run by Juan Castro, so I guess that's something.

fearofpopvol1
05-04-2008, 10:54 PM
I'd actually prefer the Reds try to get Marshall. Similar pitcher to Hill (lefty and stuff), but less coveted and better control. Younger too. He would almost for sure be easier to get.