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cincrazy
05-04-2008, 10:24 PM
Just for the record, Alfonso Soriano and his sterling .224 OBP has been leading off for the Chicago Cubs... who just happen to have the best offense in the league statistically speaking. I know they lead in runs scored, and I believe they also lead the NL in OBP.

I don't always like Dusty's lineups, but the point I'm trying to make is, we have a bunch of poor hitter's. And when that's the case, you can write that baby out any way you want to, it's just not gonna make a difference.

flyer85
05-04-2008, 10:32 PM
it's because Soriano pouts when he doesn't bat leadoff(and he was out the 2.5 weeks when they were doing all the winning).

cincrazy
05-04-2008, 10:34 PM
it's because Soriano pouts when he doesn't bat leadoff(and he was out the 2.5 weeks when they were doing all the winning).

The point is my friend, if we bat C-Patt first or seventh, we still have a cruddy offense ;)

flyer85
05-04-2008, 10:36 PM
The point is my friend, if we bat C-Patt first or seventh, we still have a cruddy offense ;)not an excuse for not maximizing one's odds.

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2008, 10:40 PM
If I were sweet Lou, Soriano would bat 5th or 6th and Fukudome and his .443 OBP would be leading off.

cincrazy
05-04-2008, 10:46 PM
not an excuse for not maximizing one's odds.

If you're a one man army going up against the Chinese military, you can try and maximize your odds as much as you'd like, but it's not going to matter much.

edabbs44
05-05-2008, 08:54 AM
If I were sweet Lou, Soriano would bat 5th or 6th and Fukudome and his .443 OBP would be leading off.

And then when Fukudome falls to Earth?

The mastery of a lineup isn't reacting to what a player's performance has been in the past week or two, it's maximizing that player's performance for the upcoming week or two.

It's real easy to say that Fukudome's .443 OBP would fit in real well at the top of the lineup. But do you think he'll do that for the rest of the season?

Spring~Fields
05-05-2008, 09:09 AM
not an excuse for not maximizing one's odds.

A game of percentages within situational probabilities where batting averages, on base percentages, slugging percentages and win loss percentage rain supreme.

Dom Heffner
05-05-2008, 09:21 AM
cincrazy- Patterson is no Soriano. Even if the OBP is roughly the same, Soriano will give you more production over the course of a year. To point to a .244 OBP through 2 weeks of a season is using a pretty small sample size. Soriabo is by no means an on base machine, but 30 plus homers a year beats Patterson's pathetic numbers.

Really the argument should be whether Patterson even deserves to be starting in a majpr league lineup at all.

Spring~Fields
05-05-2008, 09:34 AM
Especially when one has been somewhat of a fixed procedure producing a less than desirable performance in a climate of adversity where other options and their possible outcomes have seen a very limited exposure making it difficult to definitively say.

blumj
05-05-2008, 09:38 AM
And then when Fukudome falls to Earth?

The mastery of a lineup isn't reacting to what a player's performance has been in the past week or two, it's maximizing that player's performance for the upcoming week or two.

It's real easy to say that Fukudome's .443 OBP would fit in real well at the top of the lineup. But do you think he'll do that for the rest of the season?
No, almost no one does, But there's no past MLB history to go on with Fukudome. If they had reason to believe they were signing a high OBP guy in the first place, then they'd have no reason now to think otherwise. Soriano has a full 7+ seasons of MLB history to go on, and in exactly one of those seasons did he ever have an OBP over .350, and just barely at that. It's still just astonishing to me that the Yankees somehow came to the conclusion that this particular player should play 2B and bat leadoff.

OnBaseMachine
05-05-2008, 11:45 AM
At last check, Fukudome had chased the least amount of pitches out of the strikezone than any other player in major league baseball. I doubt if he continues to hit .342 all year but with his great plate discipline I see no reason why he won't continue posting an OBP around .400. I've probably watched him bat 15 times at least, and the only time I remember him swinging at a bad pitch was when Volquez got him to chase a nasty changeup down and in for a strikeout.

KronoRed
05-05-2008, 01:47 PM
Lets just bat the pitcher first, then blame the players when it fails.

Excellent.

Falls City Beer
05-05-2008, 01:50 PM
Cincrazy has an exceedingly valuable point. It's the players, not the order.

OnBaseMachine
05-05-2008, 01:57 PM
Yeah, but batting a guy with a .263 OBP leadoff isn't helping things.

Falls City Beer
05-05-2008, 02:06 PM
Yeah, but batting a guy with a .263 OBP leadoff isn't helping things.

I understand that. And I think cincrazy does too.

dabvu2498
05-05-2008, 02:07 PM
Yeah, but batting a guy with a .263 OBP leadoff isn't helping things.

Interesting tidbit:

Reds' leadoff hitters have a combined .327 OBP. (NL average: .342)

#2 hitters: .282
#3 hitters: .322
#4 hitters: .326

Reds' leadoff hitters have a combined .422 SLG. (NL average .432)

#2 hitters: .333
#3 hitters: .386
#5 hitters: .408

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=onBasePct&split=109&group=8&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

dabvu2498
05-05-2008, 02:10 PM
BTW, if you click the link above, you'll see that the Chicago Cubs' #1 hitters have a cumulative .261 OBP.

.261

And they still lead the NL in runs per game.

fearofpopvol1
05-05-2008, 02:54 PM
They showed stats during the game last night and Soriano's numbers in the 2-9 spots were worse than his numbers in the leadoff spot, for what it's worth.

I still don't really like a player dictating the lineup, but I guess he has an argument.

RedsManRick
05-05-2008, 03:31 PM
If there's anything to really learn from the Reds/Cubs comparison it's that no one player can make or break an offense. The Cubs have been scoring lots of runs for a simple reason -- as a team, they produce, particularly OBP. It really reinforces that batting order affects production on the margins. Getting the right group of players in the lineup in the first place and getting them to play up to their potential is so much more important. And then, when we do talk about lineups, it's important to remember that the number of plate appearances is perhaps the biggest effect, not the imagined series of events which we use to design the order.

The production (or lack thereof) the Reds have gotten from the top 4 spots in the lineup is just incredible. We've given the most at bats to our least productive players. That both us and the Cubs are using productive players at leadoff is harming our run production versus some imagined alternative. But the Cubs are getting immense production from 3-7, we're getting decent production 5-8.



OBP
POS Reds Rank Cubs Rank
1 .327 13 .261 16
2 .282 13 .344 6
3 .322 12 .438 3
4 .326 13 .419 1
5 .391 5 .397 3
6 .338 5 .426 1
7 .352 6 .453 1
8 .350 5 .328 8
9 .198 14 .290 4
Total .322 11 .373 1

SLG
POS Reds Rank Cubs Rank
1 .422 10 .284 16
2 .333 12 .383 11
3 .386 13 .646 3
4 .426 12 .542 4
5 .406 13 .429 12
6 .447 4 .482 3
7 .559 3 .629 2
8 .450 1 .311 7
9 .214 10 .348 3
Total .406 9 .460 4

OPS
POS Reds Rank Cubs Rank
1 .749 11 .545 16
2 .615 12 .727 11
3 .696 13 1.125 3
4 .752 12 .961 4
5 .796 9 .826 8
6 .786 4 .907 2
7 .911 3 1.082 1
8 .800 2 .639 8
9 .412 14 .638 3
Total .728 9 .820 1