PDA

View Full Version : Baker says Arroyo may be hurt. Arroyo Disagrees.



Tommyjohn25
05-04-2008, 10:01 PM
I think Bronson should "humor" all of us and get checked out. For the sake of the sanity of the team, and us fans.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080504&content_id=2639492&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Reds4Life
05-04-2008, 10:08 PM
He should get check out, what does he have to lose? It won't hurt anything, and only confirm that it's not a physical problem.

TeamBoone
05-04-2008, 10:22 PM
Maybe he's bucking for a trade.....

Chip R
05-04-2008, 10:25 PM
This is why I am against pitchers getting incentive contracts for innings pitched. In this case, I don't think Bronson has incentives for that but just in general I'm against it. A guy pitches bad and he hides the injury to get those incentives.

Heath
05-04-2008, 10:32 PM
Maybe he's bucking for a trade back to Boston.....


Conspiracy Theorists made me edit your line, TC..... :cool:

jojo
05-04-2008, 10:37 PM
The saving grace-it's only been a little over 30 innings pitched.....

WVRedsFan
05-04-2008, 10:59 PM
I hope he's hurt, because if he isn't we have a bigger problem.

So I say check him out. Find out for sure and take appropriate action.

Tomorrow.

redsfan4445
05-04-2008, 11:03 PM
he is doing his Milton imitation Remember he kept saying he was fine and getting hammered? he then later admitted he was hurt (his knee).... And I have been to two games that Arroyo pitched this year and he was throwing so much sidearm and most of his sidearm pitches were in the 70-76mph range! and only hit 89 mph 3 times i saw in two starts throwing fastballs!!!! To me he is hurt!..!

AmarilloRed
05-04-2008, 11:09 PM
Bronson will not do himself or the team any good the way he is pitching now. There is nothing wrong with a preliminary checkup.

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2008, 11:16 PM
The saving grace-it's only been a little over 30 innings pitched.....

That's true... I'm not going to pretend to ignore the absolute bashings Arroyo has taken so far, but I always thought Arroyo's success would mainly hinge on his K rates. In that he's always had reasonable control, so that's not something I felt he would suddenly lose... and this season the complaints on Arroyo have almost completely been built upon "stuff" issues as opposed to control problems.

Anyways, the fact his K rates are not appreciably different from his previous seasons, that there is still some hope for a rebound back to his more normal levels. I find it hard to believe that a guy can strike out a similar amount of batters as usual, with far less stellar stuff.

Perhaps the K rates are due to plummet, and that's more coincedence than anything else, or maybe it's random variance and bad defense getting the best of Bronson. My take is that it's somewhere in between... in that he's due for a string of much greater success, but not to the same degree as the rest of his Reds' tenure.

Another thing with Arroyo that I have noticed is that he seems to be a pretty streaky/complex fellow. Last year, he had a pretty major slump (perceived as being related to the mismanagement by Narron) that resembled his current streak (btw, I was fortunate enough to witness 2 of his stinkers live!) before working through the problems, and eventually getting back to his norm. During that particular slump, many (including myself) agreed that his offspeed pitches had less bite, and his fastball less zip.

My point being that he's done this before... just not as the beginning of the season which always makes things magnified to the millionth degree. Now things aren't looking very bright right now for Bronson, but I think there's evidence to suggest that he can still ge back to being a useable rotation member.

jojo
05-04-2008, 11:21 PM
I just wish the guy would get a haircut.... :cool:

KronoRed
05-05-2008, 12:12 AM
Bronson will not do himself or the team any good the way he is pitching now. There is nothing wrong with a preliminary checkup.

Nope, it's cute when players want to play hurt but more often then not they hurt their team.

reds44
05-05-2008, 12:30 AM
If Arroyo is not hurt, than he is just finished.

Before he came to Cincinnati Arroyo had thrown thrown 588 innings in parts of 6 big league seasons. He then proceeded to throws over 450 innings in 2 season, mostly under the watch of Jerry Narron. With his slight frame and the amount of breaking balls he throws, it was a recipe for failure.

Even if there is nothing structurally wrong with him, he should go on the DL just to give his arm some rest. He has had a 2-3 MPH drop on his fastball, and his breaking balls have had no bite on them this year. It's nice and all for Bronson to be a stand up guy and take the blame for pitching awful, but eventually common sense should take over.

icehole3
05-05-2008, 06:31 AM
Baker saying they want him to get a checkup is a polite way of saying he's sucky sucky.

RFS62
05-05-2008, 06:50 AM
"Baker says Arroyo may be hurt"..... maybe we read that sentence wrong... maybe he's predicting his future.

Benihana
05-05-2008, 11:55 AM
If Arroyo is not hurt, than he is just finished.

Before he came to Cincinnati Arroyo had thrown thrown 588 innings in parts of 6 big league seasons. He then proceeded to throws over 450 innings in 2 season, mostly under the watch of Jerry Narron. With his slight frame and the amount of breaking balls he throws, it was a recipe for failure.

Even if there is nothing structurally wrong with him, he should go on the DL just to give his arm some rest. He has had a 2-3 MPH drop on his fastball, and his breaking balls have had no bite on them this year. It's nice and all for Bronson to be a stand up guy and take the blame for pitching awful, but eventually common sense should take over.

Wait, I thought (yesterday) you didn't want to trade him for Rich Hill? Now "he's finished?"

KronoRed
05-05-2008, 12:48 PM
Wait, I thought (yesterday) you didn't want to trade him for Rich Hill? Now "he's finished?"

Welcome to RZ :beerme:

SMcGavin
05-05-2008, 12:49 PM
He's still striking guys out, his control is pretty similar to what it's been in the past. He's giving up more line drives, but the major difference is the HR rate has soared to Coffey-esque levels: almost 20% of his fly balls have left the yard. That's double what it has been the last two years. That is awful, but are we sure this is the new Arroyo and not just 30 innings of abberation?

I'm sure this will get ripped to shreds but I'm just gonna throw it out there:
Arroyo 2007 xFIP: 4.76
Arroyo 2008 xFIP: 4.52

I am all for getting his arm checked out. But if he's healthy, I wouldn't toss him in the "done" pile just yet. If his stuff was gone, would he have 29 K in 32 innings?

reds44
05-05-2008, 12:51 PM
Wait, I thought (yesterday) you didn't want to trade him for Rich Hill? Now "he's finished?"
I said if he's not hurt he is finished, and I said I would trade him for Hill because of his contract. I'd rather have Arroyo than Hill if he is healthy.

How is AAA treating Rich Hill?

Ltlabner
05-05-2008, 01:38 PM
Does Arroyo really get a say in whether he will be checked out or not? I mean, if the Reds wheel him down to the local MRI station can he object or something per the CBA, the union or some wacked out health privacy stuff?

Seems to me that as long as the team isn't asking for unreasonable medical procedures if they say MRI, Bronson should be saying, "when do you want me there".

Benihana
05-05-2008, 01:56 PM
I said if he's not hurt he is finished, and I said I would trade him for Hill because of his contract. I'd rather have Arroyo than Hill if he is healthy.

How is AAA treating Rich Hill?

Probably the same way it's treating Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey. I wouldn't want to trade for those guys either.

reds44
05-05-2008, 02:33 PM
Probably the same way it's treating Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey. I wouldn't want to trade for those guys either.
I didn't realize Bruce and Bailey are 28.

SMcGavin
05-05-2008, 05:14 PM
He's still striking guys out, his control is pretty similar to what it's been in the past. He's giving up more line drives, but the major difference is the HR rate has soared to Coffey-esque levels: almost 20% of his fly balls have left the yard. That's double what it has been the last two years. That is awful, but are we sure this is the new Arroyo and not just 30 innings of abberation?

I'm sure this will get ripped to shreds but I'm just gonna throw it out there:
Arroyo 2007 xFIP: 4.76
Arroyo 2008 xFIP: 4.52

I am all for getting his arm checked out. But if he's healthy, I wouldn't toss him in the "done" pile just yet. If his stuff was gone, would he have 29 K in 32 innings?

So does anyone want to talk about this, or have we already concluded that Bronson's terrible April means his career is over?

RedsManRick
05-05-2008, 05:16 PM
So does anyone want to talk about this, or have we already concluded that Bronson's terrible April means his career is over?

The topic has been covered in great detail in other threads the past 10 days. I'm guessing people are just tired of talking about it. It's time to simply wait it out and see how things play out.

Aronchis
05-05-2008, 05:35 PM
Strikeouts mean little. It is the the complete breakdown in location that is the problem. If he was a young 21 year old, no problem. But at his age and experience, it is disturbing.

The Baumer
05-05-2008, 06:31 PM
On ESPN.com they're saying Arroyo was examined and they couldn't find anything physically wrong. Uh-oh!

Patrick Bateman
05-05-2008, 09:17 PM
So does anyone want to talk about this, or have we already concluded that Bronson's terrible April means his career is over?

Well I made a very similar post on the first page. I think there's definitely some "legs" to the point your making.

SMcGavin
05-06-2008, 12:27 AM
Well I made a very similar post on the first page. I think there's definitely some "legs" to the point your making.

I saw that, and probably should have quoted your post when making mine. You made some excellent points. The results we are seeing don't really fit with Arroyo's arm being shot.

SteelSD
05-06-2008, 01:24 AM
So does anyone want to talk about this, or have we already concluded that Bronson's terrible April means his career is over?

Arroyo's FIP (different than xFIP) is 5.89. His DIPS ERA is 5.41. Arroyo's individual Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) is .622 (read: awful). But that's partly caused by an upward variance in his Line Drive rate (26.5%) versus 2007 (20.9%). And his ERA variance versus FIP or DIPS is exacerbated by a very high HR/FB rate (19.9%) and an extremely poor LOB rate (55.8% versus 74.0% in 2007).

Basically, Arroyo's been somewhat unlucky in 2008. However, the "luck" variance is likely actually the difference between his current ERA of 8.63 and what we should be seeing (@5.70). In no way has Arroyo been a good pitcher this season. His ERA in Cincy should have been hovering around league average over the last two seasons and this early-season funk could just be the Devil getting his due after seeing two seasons of an ERA that was lower than it should have been.

That being said, Arroyo is not one of those pitchers who can rely on his fastball to consistently get hitters out. He's not a junkballer in the Rick Mahler style, but any negative deviation of velocity makes him easier to hit as he sets up his fastball with his breaking stuff, which rides from a variety of arm slots and release points. He's basically a "command" pitcher who relies on movement to retire hitters.

At a lower velocity, hitters can catch up to his fastball and don't have to adjust to his breaking pitches as much. Instead, they can sit back, knowing they have the bat speed to catch up to an 87 to 89 MPH heater knowing that he might just hang a breaking pitch. And he's done that quite often to the tune of a 1.17 HR/9 rate over the past two seasons and 94 Doubles. And considering that he's a Fly Ball pitcher, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility that the increased LD and HR/FB rates aren't a result of hitters simply squaring up better on a pitcher who's seen a decline in velocity and a plethora of hanging breaking pitches. The latter isn't new, but the former is.

fearofpopvol1
05-06-2008, 02:10 AM
I watched the last game Arroyo pitched with the Braves and I thought Ron Gant made an interesting point. He thought that Arroyo's biggest problem was that he tried to make too many 1st pitches with offspeed stuff. He suggested that Arroyo tried to throw 1st pitch fast balls to get strike 1 over the plate so he could get ahead of the hitters to set up his offspeed stuff. Sounds simple in theory, but Arroyo does try to use his offspeed stuff on the 1st pitch and I think that is to his detriment.

jojo
05-06-2008, 07:39 AM
So does anyone want to talk about this, or have we already concluded that Bronson's terrible April means his career is over?

One thing about xFIP is that it normalizes for HR rate which begs the question that his abnormally high one was bad luck rather than a symptom.... He's had a HR/FB= 18.2%, a LOB% of 59%, and a BABIP of .402. Usually when a pitcher rolls snake eyes on all three "luck/unluck" indices, there's a reason beyond bad luck.

But I tend to think Arroyo isn't useless.

jojo
05-06-2008, 07:48 AM
On ESPN.com they're saying Arroyo was examined and they couldn't find anything physically wrong. Uh-oh!

Examined by the Reds staff? :D They should talk to his Realtor....location, location, location....

SMcGavin
05-06-2008, 11:13 AM
One thing about xFIP is that it normalizes for HR rate which begs the question that his abnormally high one was bad luck rather than a symptom.... He's had a HR/FB= 18.2%, a LOB% of 59%, and a BABIP of .402. Usually when a pitcher rolls snake eyes on all three "luck/unluck" indices, there's a reason beyond bad luck.

But I tend to think Arroyo isn't useless.

I was under the impression that HR/FB is in most cases outside of the control of the pitcher (it's that assumption that the logic behind xFIP instead of FIP is based on). If Arroyo pitches 30 more innings with that ridiculously high HR/FB, then he will be building the sort of track record that Todd Coffey has built and I would start to believe it is here to stay. But I'm thinking the results we have seen (high HR/FB, low LOB%, high BABIP) tend to point towards bad luck and not his arm being shot (in that case I'd expect a big drop in K/9). I guess we just need more innings to see if all three of the "bad luck" numbers continue where they are at.


At a lower velocity, hitters can catch up to his fastball and don't have to adjust to his breaking pitches as much. Instead, they can sit back, knowing they have the bat speed to catch up to an 87 to 89 MPH heater knowing that he might just hang a breaking pitch. And he's done that quite often to the tune of a 1.17 HR/9 rate over the past two seasons and 94 Doubles. And considering that he's a Fly Ball pitcher, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility that the increased LD and HR/FB rates aren't a result of hitters simply squaring up better on a pitcher who's seen a decline in velocity and a plethora of hanging breaking pitches. The latter isn't new, but the former is.
Steel, thanks for your response. This is certainly a reasonable explanation, and the reason for his increased HR/FB may be the dropping velocity and not bad luck. I think at this point we just have to wait and see if the HR/FB normalizes over the next couple of months or not.

jojo
05-06-2008, 12:48 PM
I was under the impression that HR/FB is in most cases outside of the control of the pitcher (it's that assumption that the logic behind xFIP instead of FIP is based on). If Arroyo pitches 30 more innings with that ridiculously high HR/FB, then he will be building the sort of track record that Todd Coffey has built and I would start to believe it is here to stay. But I'm thinking the results we have seen (high HR/FB, low LOB%, high BABIP) tend to point towards bad luck and not his arm being shot (in that case I'd expect a big drop in K/9). I guess we just need more innings to see if all three of the "bad luck" numbers continue where they are at.

HR/FB will tend to regress from either direction to roughly 11% for starters and often times significantly lower for relievers. Also, HR/FB is effected by environment (it's not constant across parks) etc as well.

Basically, a really favorable homer rate (i.e. HR/FB of 2% for a starter) should be expected to move toward 11% with more fly balls (though there are rare guys that buck this-Blanton is one who has consistently shown a lower than expected rate that probably isn't due to his park). A really bad luck metric as you suggest might be indicative of bad luck. That said, it can also be a hallmark of ineffectiveness. Basically, a good pitcher can rarely sustain a super swing in a luck metric but a bad pitcher can consistently put up poor swings in such metrics. The bad pitcher isn't unlucky but rather, he's getting his brains beat out.

So luck metrics can't be interpreted in a vacuum. Usually it's a sign that a guy is either injured or toast when he's rolling snake eyes in all three luck metrics (HR/FB, LOB%, BABIP). With Bronson, he's getting hammered. However, his K rate is still good suggesting it's not an injury. Perhaps he really has just been unlucky and these things will even out as the sample gets bigger. However, marrying the eyes to the numbers suggests Bronson is struggling with his command (i.e. poor location not necessarily missing the strike zone).

His velocity isn't that different so far this year compared to previous years. My bet is on something with his mechanics. Good luck sorting his out though....

TRF
05-06-2008, 01:00 PM
so, mathematical equations aside, Arroyo has a slight dip in his velo, his pitches aren't moving in the zone, his location has been bad and he's hanging his breaking stuff.

IMO this is likely due to the lack of a good off-season conditioning program. Face it, we know one thing about BA, dude likes to party. Not in the bad cincinati bengal way, but he likes the night life. Kind of like David Wells minus being left handed.

Nothing structurally wrong. That is so very telling in it's own way.

Matt700wlw
05-06-2008, 01:58 PM
I almost hope he's hurt....otherwise, he's just lost it.

WebScorpion
05-06-2008, 02:08 PM
I watched the last game Arroyo pitched with the Braves and I thought Ron Gant made an interesting point. He thought that Arroyo's biggest problem was that he tried to make too many 1st pitches with offspeed stuff. He suggested that Arroyo tried to throw 1st pitch fast balls to get strike 1 over the plate so he could get ahead of the hitters to set up his offspeed stuff. Sounds simple in theory, but Arroyo does try to use his offspeed stuff on the 1st pitch and I think that is to his detriment.

I tend to agree with this point as well. Arroyo has always pitched 'backwards'... he needs to adjust and pitch fastball first for some period of time or at least a larger part of the time. I don't think this will cure what ails him, but every little bit helps.

Highlifeman21
05-06-2008, 04:47 PM
His arm certainly looks dead to me. There may not be anything structurally or medically wrong with it, but that right arm's been abused.

GAC
05-06-2008, 08:57 PM
He belongs in the bullpen.

Here's a question I asked back when the trade went down....

Why was Boston so willing, in market that is thin on pitching, to trade away a guy who the year prior (2005) went 14-10, ERA of 4.52, threw 205 innings, and had a pretty solid year for them, for the likes of a Wily Mo Pena? I mean, we're talking Theo Epstein here. I know that at the time Manny was acting up again and talking about wanting out of Boston; but they couldn't have thought that Wily Mo could be his possible replacement.

It kind of perplexed me. Especially since BA signed a lowball contract with them to stay in Boston, and was probably heading for the bullpen in '06.

I don't buy the abused arm theory. I think the guy's best role is probably in the bullpen. Boston figured that out. The Reds haven't...... yet. ;)

jojo
05-06-2008, 09:25 PM
He belongs in the bullpen.

Here's a question I asked back when the trade went down....

Why was Boston so willing, in market that is thin on pitching, to trade away a guy who the year prior (2005) went 14-10, ERA of 4.52, threw 205 innings, and had a pretty solid year for them, for the likes of a Wily Mo Pena? I mean, we're talking Theo Epstein here. I know that at the time Manny was acting up again and talking about wanting out of Boston; but they couldn't have thought that Wily Mo could be his possible replacement.

It kind of perplexed me. Especially since BA signed a lowball contract with them to stay in Boston, and was probably heading for the bullpen in '06.

I don't buy the abused arm theory. I think the guy's best role is probably in the bullpen. Boston figured that out. The Reds haven't...... yet. ;)

To be fair, Arroyo gave the Reds greater than 400 above league average innings from their rotation during '06 and '07.......I think he's earned a decent amount of rope.

Highlifeman21
05-06-2008, 09:50 PM
To be fair, Arroyo gave the Reds greater than 400 above league average innings from their rotation during '06 and '07.......I think he's earned a decent amount of rope.

A decent amount to the point he's now hanging himself and the Reds every time he takes the hill.

reds44
05-10-2008, 09:30 PM
Arroyo hasn't looked hurt tonight.

7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K
101 pitches thru 7.

Since Dusty thought he was hurt, do you think he puts Arroyo out there for the 8th?

guttle11
05-10-2008, 09:46 PM
This calls for a taco filling party.

Bronson got better as the game went along, too. Downright untouchable in the 7th and 8th.

Tornon
05-10-2008, 09:47 PM
There's your answer.. perfect 8th

kaldaniels
05-10-2008, 10:07 PM
His outing tonight was exactly what was needed...and a sign things aren't as bad as they looked. You tell me the Reds have a double dip with the Mets and are facing Johan in one of them, I take the split everyday of the week. Now we get the 3 game stretch of Cueto,Harang,Volquez (in whatever order it is) :thumbup:

BCubb2003
05-10-2008, 10:14 PM
The Reds would have a better record if they played more doubleheaders.

fearofpopvol1
05-10-2008, 10:16 PM
All I can say is wow. That is easily the best he's looked all season and honestly, the best I can remember him looking in a very long time.

He looked sharp and he was fooling everyone. 9Ks in 8 innings...4 hits to a very good Mets lineup. At one point, he struck out 4 batters in a row and twice he struck out the side. He retired 13 in a row at one point.

Very impressive outing. Let's hope this continues.

VR
05-10-2008, 10:16 PM
He's now got 38 k's in 39 innings.

Will M
05-10-2008, 10:39 PM
he looked great tonight. a complete 180 from his recent outings.

heres hoping we get more starts from Bronson anywhere close to tonight

Patrick Bateman
05-11-2008, 12:02 AM
Bronson had his stuff back tonight. IMO, from the get-go his breaking pitches had really nice finishing action, which provides the unpredictability he needed. At times his location wasn't there tonight, but Arroyo looked as good as ever. As I said earlier, every year Arroyo always seems to go through slumps where his stuff simply isn't there. And every year it looks like he's done.

Is it possible that his slump just so happened to occur at the beginning of the year? Tonight he looked like a completely different pitcher. He's back.

PuffyPig
05-11-2008, 12:12 AM
I don't buy the abused arm theory. I think the guy's best role is probably in the bullpen. Boston figured that out. The Reds haven't...... yet. ;)


Boston figured it out?

Arroyo averaged about 220 inings over the last 2 years with an ERA below 4.

What did Boston figure out again?

How many pitchers averaged 200 innings over the last 2 years in the majors with an ERA under 4. Probably less than 10.

What did Boston figure out again?

WebScorpion
05-11-2008, 05:58 AM
I'll be interested to hear what Bronson has to say tomorrow. Was it an early season 'dead arm' period? Has he made some adjustment that caused the difference?
It was great to see him back to his old form! If he can keep that up for a bit, we might just get back in this thing... :thumbup:

GAC
05-11-2008, 06:05 AM
Boston figured it out?

Arroyo averaged about 220 inings over the last 2 years with an ERA below 4.

What did Boston figure out again?

How many pitchers averaged 200 innings over the last 2 years in the majors with an ERA under 4. Probably less than 10.

What did Boston figure out again?

They had him heading to the bullpen the following year if he had stayed in Boston. Why? And why did Boston so easily trade him away for the likes of a Wily Mo Pena when the pitching market is not exactly busting at the seams with talent?

I hope it doesn't turn out to be true, but it seems he had his peak years from 2004-2006. It's been gradual downhill ever since.

GAC
05-11-2008, 06:44 AM
Very impressive outing. Let's hope this continues.

Yes it was. I was glad to see it too. But can he do it consistently? That is the key question. He didn't do it last year.

Last April he was 0-2 in 5 starts, but was a far better pitcher (2.86 ERA) then we have seen in comparison to this year (8.63 ERA) at this stage of the season.

He won his first game last year on May 1st vs Houston. This year it was May 10th. His performance last year was very spotty IMO. He won the first two games in May, and then had 7 straight losses (3 no decisions) before winning again on July 5th. Overall in '07, Bronson was not a bad pitcher. At times he didn't get the run support, while and at other times he lost because he just didn't pitch well.

His monthly ERA, with Won-Loss record, from 2007...

April 2.86 W-L 0-2
May 6.45 W-L 2-4
June 5.23 W-L 0-3
July 2.62 W-L 2-2
Aug 4.92 W-L 3-2
Sept 3.29 W-L 2-2

One reason why I don't "buy into" the abused or tied arm reasoning - besides not trusting the measuring tool utilized as being very reliable - is that look at his performance in September, the last month of the season. He had 6 starts, and 5 of them were QS's where he pitched 6-7 innings, gave up 3 ERs or less, and had an ERA for the month of 3.29.

Always Red
05-11-2008, 07:25 AM
Yes it was. I was glad to see it too. But can he do it consistently? That is the key question. He didn't do it last year.

Last April he was 0-2 in 5 starts, but was a far better pitcher (2.86 ERA) then we have seen in comparison to this year (8.63 ERA) at this stage of the season.

He won his first game last year on May 1st vs Houston. This year it was May 10th. His performance last year was very spotty IMO. He won the first two games in May, and then had 7 straight losses (3 no decisions) before winning again on July 5th. Overall in '07, Bronson was not a bad pitcher. At times he didn't get the run support, while and at other times he lost because he just didn't pitch well.

His monthly ERA, with Won-Loss record, from 2007...

April 2.86 W-L 0-2
May 6.45 W-L 2-4
June 5.23 W-L 0-3
July 2.62 W-L 2-2
Aug 4.92 W-L 3-2
Sept 3.29 W-L 2-2

One reason why I don't "buy into" the abused or tied arm reasoning - besides not trusting the measuring tool utilized as being very reliable - is that look at his performance in September, the last month of the season. He had 6 starts, and 5 of them were QS's where he pitched 6-7 innings, gave up 3 ERs or less, and had an ERA for the month of 3.29.

Stop making sense, GAC! ;)

Isn't it just much easier to say that Jerry Narron abused Arroyo, and ruined his career??

Arroyo is a very streaky pitcher. I do think he was affected for nearly a month after that 129 pitch outing (May 16th, 2007) against the Pads last year (and his numbers right after that outing suggest that), but he recovered nicely and ended the season very strongly, as you point out.

I do "buy into" the abused arm theory in general, but there is no good way of measuring it, which is what makes it difficult to talk about and apply from one pitcher to the next. Each pitcher's arm and shoulder can handle a different workload. What are normal pitch counts for one pitcher might be abuse for another pitcher, and there is no way to identify this number until you physically put a guy out there and see what he can do. Really, it is trying to make science out of something which is not science at all, but only theory.

I agree that Arroyo's problem's this year are not due to his abused or tired arm. He is an extremely streaky pitcher, and has been since he's been with the Reds. His numbers the last 2 years have added up to an ERA below league average, so on the balance, he's been a good pitcher for this team. I was a little rough on him the other day in a another thread, until I went back and looked harder at his total numbers. Hopefully, this start will propel him on another long hot streak.

mth123
05-11-2008, 07:37 AM
Arroyo hasn't pitched well on the whole this season, but he is way down the list of things to worry about IMO. I was one who suspected an injury and called for a DL stint because he didn't seem to be getting on top of his pitches (especially his curve) causing them to flatten out. Sometimes this is a sign of an injured arm or a weak arm, but since the medical evaluations and Arroyo himself insist nothing is wrong, its probably just a bad stretch. If so, I think he'll turn it around and be the league average or slightly better starter that he has been. Glad it seems that I was wrong about his arm being hurt. Having him fill the 3rd or 4th spot helps a ton. Last night doesn't mean he's back, but it certainly is a good sign.

GAC
05-11-2008, 07:41 AM
Arroyo is a very streaky pitcher.

Wholeheartedly agree. And being streaky is not indicative of the "ace" label many have given him.


I do think he was affected for nearly a month after that 129 pitch outing (May 16th, 2007) against the Pads last year (and his numbers right after that outing suggest that), but he recovered nicely and ended the season very strongly, as you point out.

And I never disagreed with that possibility. But the key is that he did recover from it. And IMO, it's pure conjecture to say that one start somehow did him in. But yes, it is a possibility. But his numbers after that are more consistent to what you propose - streakiness - then a tired/abused arm. You go back and look at his pitching stats from 2004 thru 2007, such as #P/PA, #P/IP, #P/G, season total pitch count and total innings pitched - they are consistent with no great irregularity. Was he abused then?

You look at several of the games he went on to lose over the next 3 months in '07 after that May game.... he threw some very quality games where his offense just didn't give him the runs support. Bad luck? No offense? Facing a tough pitcher?

He was 2-2 in July with a 2.62 ERA. And in those two losses he pitched 6 and 7 innings respectively where he kept his team in the game with either 3 or 4 ERs given up.


I do "buy into" the abused arm theory in general, but there is no good way of measuring it, which is what makes it difficult to talk about and apply from one pitcher to the next. Each pitcher's arm and shoulder can handle a different workload. What are normal pitch counts for one pitcher might be abuse for another pitcher, and there is no way to identify this number until you physically put a guy out there and see what he can do. Really, it is trying to make science out of something which is not science at all, but only theory.

My position exactly.

GAC
05-11-2008, 07:43 AM
One thing that might help him is cutting down on those stupid JTM commercials! :p:

jojo
05-11-2008, 08:02 AM
I really think the guy could do with a haircut.

PuffyPig
05-11-2008, 09:47 AM
They had him heading to the bullpen the following year if he had stayed in Boston. Why? And why did Boston so easily trade him away for the likes of a Wily Mo Pena when the pitching market is not exactly busting at the seams with talent?

I hope it doesn't turn out to be true, but it seems he had his peak years from 2004-2006. It's been gradual downhill ever since.

They had him heading to the bullpen becuase they felt they had depth at that position.

They traded him becuase they felt they were trading from a position of depth to shore up a weakness.

And they were proven wrong. Arroyo provided a lot of above average innings in 2006-2007.

blumj
05-11-2008, 10:45 AM
They had him heading to the bullpen becuase they felt they had depth at that position.

They traded him becuase they felt they were trading from a position of depth to shore up a weakness.

And they were proven wrong. Arroyo provided a lot of above average innings in 2006-2007.
FWIW, I think it's simpler than that, and that you're both making the same mistake. I think Boston evaluated Arroyo correctly as an average starting pitcher, and they incorrectly believed they could spare one at the time, and misevaluated what they were getting in return.

PuffyPig
05-11-2008, 10:55 AM
FWIW, I think it's simpler than that, and that you're both making the same mistake. I think Boston evaluated Arroyo correctly as an average starting pitcher, and they incorrectly believed they could spare one at the time, and misevaluated what they were getting in return.


Well, that's pretty much what I said.

Other than that Arroyo was above average in 2006-2007.

With well over 400 innngs during those years, and a combined ERA around 3.75, Arroyo was certainly above average.

top6
05-11-2008, 11:06 AM
My favorite thing abuot the Arroyo/Pena trade was how Arroyo had more home runs than Pena the first month (or just few weeks) of the season. That was fun.

blumj
05-11-2008, 11:42 AM
Well, that's pretty much what I said.

Other than that Arroyo was above average in 2006-2007.

With well over 400 innngs during those years, and a combined ERA around 3.75, Arroyo was certainly above average.

Yes, I guess my point is, if he is basically an average pitcher over the long term, then he would have some above average seasons and some below average ones. What the Red Sox thought is really beside the point either way. They make mistakes, too, and that trade was certainly one of them, whichever part or parts of it they were mistaken about.

KittyDuran
05-11-2008, 03:22 PM
I really think the guy could do with a haircut.Not until I've run my fingers through it... :D

GAC
05-13-2008, 08:19 PM
FWIW, I think it's simpler than that, and that you're both making the same mistake. I think Boston evaluated Arroyo correctly as an average starting pitcher, and they incorrectly believed they could spare one at the time, and misevaluated what they were getting in return.

Very true. And "mis-evaluating" Pena is an understatement IMO. :p:

Sell high. IMHO, Arroyo was at his peak. And that is what they asked for in return?

I hope I'm wrong; but I doubt you'll see Arroyo have a season again, like he put up in 04 thru 06.

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2008, 09:45 PM
7 IP of shutout baseball on 3 days rest. Hit 91 on the gun with his fastball.

Are people still saying he's "done?"

Will M
05-14-2008, 09:49 PM
7 IP of shutout baseball on 3 days rest. Hit 91 on the gun with his fastball.

Are people still saying he's "done?"

I am thrilled with his last 2 starts. I don't know what is different but he looks like the old Bronson.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 09:55 PM
Two straight great starts from Arroyo. That is a very, very good sign. A productive Arroyo gives the Reds four starters who can go out there and shutdown an opponent on any given night. On the flipside, if the Reds fall out of contention a productive Arroyo could net the Reds a solid prospect or two.

oregonred
05-14-2008, 09:56 PM
7 IP of shutout baseball on 3 days rest. Hit 91 on the gun with his fastball.

Are people still saying he's "done?"

Yep, 4 hefty workhorse years of above average rotation numbers since 2004 but the guy was considered a bum by some on the board after 1/8th of the season.

With the old Arroyo "back" the club is ready to go on a nice run with Harang + Volquez + Arroyo and some suddenly timely hitting. Now if Cueto can get back on track then you've got something fun to watch for a while even if you can play 40% ball with the ever evolving dasterdly 5th starter slot.

The Marlins annocucers can't figure out how the Reds aren't in first place :)

Team Clark
05-14-2008, 11:54 PM
Amazing what paying attention during your bullpen sessions and spending some time in the video room will do. Adjustments, Adjustments, Adjustments.... Hmmmm Never heard that before.

Patrick Bateman
05-15-2008, 02:21 AM
Amazing what paying attention during your bullpen sessions and spending some time in the video room will do. Adjustments, Adjustments, Adjustments.... Hmmmm Never heard that before.

I think it's more than just that... his stuff has been really good the last 2 games. Seems like the dead arm theory was at hand (something Arroyo seems to go through every year at some point).

When he has his stuff, he's really good. When he doesn't, he may as well not show up.

membengal
05-15-2008, 08:22 AM
Guess we can rule out "hurt".

My pet theory is that he simply lost the feel for his array of breaking pitches. He wasn't locating them well, and without that in his arsenal, he is easily hit. Now that he appears to have an idea where those pitches are going again, he's back to being effective. If we look back through his time here, he has always gone through these period of extreme ineffectiveness. I really do think that is tied to the fine line he must walk with regard his breaking stuff. If he is off with that in any given game, he is hittable. When it is working, he is very, very good.

Team Clark
05-15-2008, 10:20 AM
I think it's more than just that... his stuff has been really good the last 2 games. Seems like the dead arm theory was at hand (something Arroyo seems to go through every year at some point).

When he has his stuff, he's really good. When he doesn't, he may as well not show up.

I'll agree with some of that too. Whatever the case, as a fan, I hope he keeps doing whatever it is he's doing! :thumbup:

edabbs44
05-15-2008, 10:17 PM
So wait....Narron didn't ruin him?

Will M
05-25-2008, 10:23 AM
Arroyo looked good again last night. That is 3 out of his last 4 where he looked good. The other start he was ok. I think his numbers from that start looked worse than he pitched due to the Reds "defense".

If Arroyo can keep pitching like this we have quite a good 1-2-3 punch.
Really a 1-1-3 punch.

Stormy
05-25-2008, 11:38 AM
In his last 4 starts since the meltdown against the Braves, Arroyo has pitched to the tune of: 26 1/3IP 25 Hits 26K 9BB 2.05ERA. If we can get Cueto back on the upswing, added to the trio of Volquez, Harang and this recent manifestation of Arroyo, we can be tough on most teams moving forward. Now, we just need to find a way to get Bruce into the lineup everyday, Patterson out, and Freel back to supersub starts at multiple positions each week.

Bronson's bounceback is a good lesson on why you don't rush to conclusions with a pitcher who has Arroyo's trackrecord of volatile stretches amidst his overall successes.

TRF
05-25-2008, 01:01 PM
I have a theory. It may be nuts and off the wall, but here it is.

In 2007, despite a poor season from BA, he was still the pitcher in the limelight. Harang was as usual largely ignored by both the national and local press. Harang doesn't talk, he just does his job. Arroyo has the rockstar mentality. He wants people talking about him.

Cue 2008. Harang again is the leader of the staff, but Cueto bursts on to the scene with the best rookie debut in over 100 years. And there was much buzz. Volquez dominates in historic fashion, not allowing more than 1 er in his first 7 starts. And there was much buzz. Frankly people are starting to forget about Arroyo. Now all of a sudden Arroyo has a K/9 just a hair under 8, and it's higher than Harang? K's will get you noticed. He's getting his pitches down and over the last month has only given up 1 HR, 7 in April.

I honestly think the new guys have fueled BA a bit. I hope it does the same for Belisle.

Caveat Emperor
05-25-2008, 01:06 PM
Arroyo looked good last night -- the real key for him is being able to throw his curveball for strikes out of all three arm-angles that he uses (overhead, 3/4 and sidearm) and to have his fastball sit (not just 'touch') 90 MPH. He generates his "strikeout" stuff from that -- when Arroyo isn't striking batters out, he's prone to giving up gap-shot XBH that get him in trouble.

He's had it working for a nice string of starts now, and it's REALLY taken pressure off the bullpen and other starters.

PuffyPig
05-25-2008, 01:42 PM
I have a theory. It may be nuts and off the wall, but here it is.

In 2007, despite a poor season from BA, he was still the pitcher in the limelight. Harang was as usual largely ignored by both the national and local press. Harang doesn't talk, he just does his job. Arroyo has the rockstar mentality. He wants people talking about him.

Cue 2008. Harang again is the leader of the staff, but Cueto bursts on to the scene with the best rookie debut in over 100 years. And there was much buzz. Volquez dominates in historic fashion, not allowing more than 1 er in his first 7 starts. And there was much buzz. Frankly people are starting to forget about Arroyo. Now all of a sudden Arroyo has a K/9 just a hair under 8, and it's higher than Harang? K's will get you noticed. He's getting his pitches down and over the last month has only given up 1 HR, 7 in April.

I honestly think the new guys have fueled BA a bit. I hope it does the same for Belisle.

I don't think it makes any sense.

Harang (in 2007) was considered by everyone to be Cincy's best pitcher, even entering the season. leading the league in wins, K's and complete games will do that.


In reality, Arroyo has been the same pitcher since he got here. His pheripicals hasn't changed much from season to season, only his luck.

kaldaniels
05-25-2008, 02:01 PM
I don't think it makes any sense.

Harang (in 2007) was considered by everyone to be Cincy's best pitcher, even entering the season. leading the league in wins, K's and complete games will do that.


In reality, Arroyo has been the same pitcher since he got here. His pheripicals hasn't changed much from season to season, only his luck.

If my memory serves me correctly...Arroyo had more quality starts in 07 than Harang. Now...Harang, at least in my eyes, was hands down the best pitcher on the team last year. That is the pitching stat from last year that blows my mind...Harang just seems like the more dominant,more consistent pitcher by so much at first glance.

GAC
05-25-2008, 03:07 PM
So wait....Narron didn't ruin him?

http://www.ciprian.onofreiciuc.ro/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/shhh-1.png

Aronchis
05-25-2008, 03:30 PM
Yup, Arroyo isn't hurt, just about finished instead. He will have some good periods, but shelled at will other times.

The Reds should get rid of him ASAP. Next year, he really will be done.

TRF
05-25-2008, 03:31 PM
I don't think it makes any sense.

Harang (in 2007) was considered by everyone to be Cincy's best pitcher, even entering the season. leading the league in wins, K's and complete games will do that.


In reality, Arroyo has been the same pitcher since he got here. His pheripicals hasn't changed much from season to season, only his luck.

This has nothing to do with performance, and everything to do with Arroyo's place in the eyes of the public. Harang was and is the better pitcher, but BA got the press.

Now he gets less of it. It's just an observation.

vaticanplum
05-26-2008, 01:47 PM
Yup, Arroyo isn't hurt, just about finished instead. He will have some good periods, but shelled at will other times.

The Reds should get rid of him ASAP. Next year, he really will be done.

I disagree. I think Arroyo has a good number of years as a #4 starter left in him. Now, we can argue whether he's getting paid #4 money, but he strikes me as a fairly smart pitcher who deals with himself well enough to have some real longevity to his career. He will go through bad spots, but I think he has some gas left in the tank.

fearofpopvol1
05-28-2008, 11:02 PM
Maybe they should have him pitch on 3 days rest for every start...

*BaseClogger*
05-28-2008, 11:29 PM
Glad to see Bronson limited to 97 pitches tonight...

kaldaniels
05-29-2008, 01:01 AM
I disagree. I think Arroyo has a good number of years as a #4 starter left in him. Now, we can argue whether he's getting paid #4 money, but he strikes me as a fairly smart pitcher who deals with himself well enough to have some real longevity to his career. He will go through bad spots, but I think he has some gas left in the tank.

Not really directed at you Vatican...but Arroyo's not a #4 starter...he is better than that. Now, if some of the Reds fireballers excel as hoped, sure, Arroyo is the Reds #4...but he is better than a league average #4. Take his production over the past 2.25 years and find me 10 teams that would not want him as their #3 starter let alone #4 as many are easily willing to concede. Watching Arroyo with his long hair and stupid commericials its easy to dismiss him as care-free...but the guy is a gamer.

Many are willing to concede Dunn is a guy who has his cold spells and give him the benefit of the doubt despite his cold start...why not do the same for Arroyo.

Really not trying to incite anything with this post, but people act like Arroyo is garbage sometimes and that bothers me.

OnBaseMachine
05-29-2008, 01:23 AM
I was one of the folks who thought Arroyo was either injured and/or finished. His velocity was way down and his curveball lacked the necessary bite to be an effective pitch. He just didn't look anything like the pitcher we had seen the last two seasons in Cincy, but thankfully his velocity has returned to 90-91 and his curveball is biting more than ever. A healthy and effective Bronson Arroyo is vital to the Reds success and it's a joy to watch him pitch when he's on his game. I'm proud to admit I was wrong about him.

RedsManRick
05-29-2008, 01:34 AM
Nobody could've predicted this resurgence from Arroyo. I mean, seriously, on what basis would anybody have had for such a crazy claim?!

VR
05-29-2008, 01:38 AM
Nobody could've predicted this resurgence from Arroyo. I mean, seriously, on what basis would anybody have had for such a crazy claim?!

One glimmer of hope was his solid k rate through all of his starts early.

fearofpopvol1
05-29-2008, 02:00 AM
Over his last five starts, Arroyo is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA.

His Ks have been really good too. It's almost like 2006 again!

jojo
05-29-2008, 10:05 AM
Nobody could've predicted this resurgence from Arroyo. I mean, seriously, on what basis would anybody have had for such a crazy claim?!

I think you're being sarcastic?

flyer85
05-29-2008, 10:06 AM
I think you're being sarcastic?ya think ;)

RedsManRick
05-29-2008, 10:06 AM
I think you're being sarcastic?

Oops. Forgot the tags...

jojo
05-29-2008, 10:13 AM
Oops. Forgot the tags...

Here's one:
http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/char042.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

Here's one for Mariner's fans:
http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/char067.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

Here's one for Javy fans:
http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/char066.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

Here's one for Cordero fans:
http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/char092.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

SMcGavin
05-29-2008, 11:00 AM
He's still striking guys out, his control is pretty similar to what it's been in the past. He's giving up more line drives, but the major difference is the HR rate has soared to Coffey-esque levels: almost 20% of his fly balls have left the yard. That's double what it has been the last two years. That is awful, but are we sure this is the new Arroyo and not just 30 innings of abberation?

Bronson's HR/F number is down to 11.6% now, right where you'd expect it based on his last couple of seasons.

Always Red
05-29-2008, 11:09 AM
Over his last five starts, Arroyo is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA.

His Ks have been really good too. It's almost like 2006 again!

sell high?

or keep him as a fixture for the next few years?

Tough question, IMO. This team has had such a dearth of good SP over the years, it's tough to deal a guy away when he is pitching well, and looks like he will be rock-steady again.

Falls City Beer
05-29-2008, 11:14 AM
sell high?

or keep him as a fixture for the next few years?

Tough question, IMO. This team has had such a dearth of good SP over the years, it's tough to deal a guy away when he is pitching well, and looks like he will be rock-steady again.

Sell "high."

I'm guessing the teams offering stuff for his services will have a strong bargaining chip when they point to his awful walk rate this season, which won't play well in the AL.

He's been better lately, but he's been far from good this season, on balance. I don't see where a reversion to the first seven starts of this season aren't on the menu for the middle of the summer for Mr. Arroyo. Let's hope he's traded before he goes Denny Neagle 2001.

I'd have a different opinion if he weren't totally reliant on his defense and maintaining a lucky flyball/HR rate. Now he's added BBs to his arsenal. Time to send him packing, IMO.

Arroyo, Bailey, and Encarnacion on the trading block, post haste.

edabbs44
05-29-2008, 11:16 AM
sell high?

or keep him as a fixture for the next few years?

Tough question, IMO. This team has had such a dearth of good SP over the years, it's tough to deal a guy away when he is pitching well, and looks like he will be rock-steady again.

Not sure how "high" it is right now. He makes decent money over the next few years so it isn't as if he is very cheap. Plus, he has had an up and down season so far.

flyer85
05-29-2008, 11:18 AM
Arroyo, Bailey, and Encarnacion on the trading block, post haste.On this one I agree with FCB. Those are the three I would be looking to deal to fill holes on this club.

OnBaseMachine
05-29-2008, 11:44 AM
I'd have a different opinion if he weren't totally reliant on his defense and maintaining a lucky flyball/HR rate. Now he's added BBs to his arsenal. Time to send him packing, IMO.


Totally reliant on his defense? He has 61 strikeouts in 64.2 innings, which is a K/9 rate of 8.49. That's not someone who is totally reliant on his defense.

dabvu2498
05-29-2008, 11:55 AM
On this one I agree with FCB. Those are the three I would be looking to deal to fill holes on this club.

Trade Arroyo and Bailey and who is your starting rotation?

westofyou
05-29-2008, 11:58 AM
Trade Arroyo and Bailey and who is your starting rotation?
Cry and Moan?

Will M
05-29-2008, 12:09 PM
Sell "high."

Arroyo, Bailey, and Encarnacion on the trading block, post haste.

these are the type of decisions that could make or break the Reds over the next few years.

some decisons are easy - keep Harang & Bruce. dump Javy, don't reup Jr, etc.

What to do with EE, Bailey & Arroyo are tougher.

Personally I'll go with the don't trade the pitchers plan.
Trade EE for a centerfielder. Find a catcher. Keep all pitchers who are halfway decent.

flyer85
05-29-2008, 12:11 PM
If I am a GM I am always looking for players that may be undervalued/underutilized by their current teams. It's why if I was the Reds GM I would look at guys like Willits, Heilman, Pelfrey, etc.

Always Red
05-29-2008, 12:13 PM
Sell "high."
...

Arroyo, Bailey, and Encarnacion on the trading block, post haste.

Do Thompson and Maloney really have higher ceilings than Bailey and Arroyo?

I don't think anyone knows. From what I've heard (never having seen them pitch) both are more pitchers than they are throwers (ie- neither has a Volquez/Cueto fastball- not that it is a prerequisite to get big league hitters out).

I think I'd like to see them both pitch here in Cincy before unloading the others. And I'd love to see Homer pitching a bit in relief.

flyer85
05-29-2008, 12:16 PM
Do Thompson and Maloney really have higher ceilings than Bailey and Arroyo?Thompson likely yes and Maloney likely no. But it is never a sure thing and pitchers are always just one pitch away from ...

westofyou
05-29-2008, 12:26 PM
Thompson likely yes and Maloney likely no. But it is never a sure thing and pitchers are always just one pitch away from ...

Nah... Thompson, he came over in the trade.

He's garbage isn't he?:p:

flyer85
05-29-2008, 12:28 PM
Nah... Thompson, he came over in the trade.

He's garbage isn't he?:p:kid has a nice arm with an injury history. I honestly would like to see a nice healthy season out of him in AA and AAA before putting him in the majors.

Falls City Beer
05-29-2008, 02:23 PM
Trade Arroyo and Bailey and who is your starting rotation?

With any luck Arroyo brings back a young near-MLB ready arm, like Volquez. Or maybe a 3rd baseman who can pick it.

jojo
05-29-2008, 02:41 PM
I'd have a different opinion if he weren't totally reliant on his defense and maintaining a lucky flyball/HR rate.

Then your worries should be put to rest as he's had an above league average Krate since joining the Reds rotation and he's never had a "lucky" HR/FB ratio during that period either.

Falls City Beer
05-29-2008, 02:49 PM
Then your worries should be put to rest as he's had an above league average Krate since joining the Reds rotation and he's never had a "lucky" HR/FB ratio during that period either.

This season the impact of his Ks has been greatly countervailed by his ungodly walk rate.

You're right, he hasn't been "lucky" in the HR department so far as a Red--his flyballs leave the park at an alarming rate. If he were more "lucky" his numbers would look better, though.

jojo
05-29-2008, 03:35 PM
This season the impact of his Ks has been greatly countervailed by his ungodly walk rate.

He has had a spike in both his walk and K rates during the early season but his K/BB is still sitting at his career rate.


You're right, he hasn't been "lucky" in the HR department so far as a Red--his flyballs leave the park at an alarming rate. If he were more "lucky" his numbers would look better, though.

This really isn't true. His HR/FB% in '08 is sitting at 10.5% which is decidely average for a starting pitcher. Earlier in the season he had a high HR/FB% but it's not really possible to know if that was a symptom of a problem he was having or if it was simply randomness.

The overlying point is that there isn't much evidence to suggest that Arroyo is anymore done this year than he was in '06. In fact, his peripherals suggest he's still an above average NL arm (FIP: 4.03; xFIP: 4.20) and overall hasn't declined from '06. I think his April wasn't luck-related but rather mechanics-related (it seemed to be all location-derived). In any event, his recent string suggests that whatever it was, it was fixable.

Finally, I'm not arguing the merits of trading/not trading Arroyo but rather arguing that his performance in April really isn't a compelling reason to trade him per se..... In other words, there is more evidence right now to support the notion that he's a quality starter than to support the notion that he should be traded ASAP because he's entered a significant decline.

RedsManRick
05-29-2008, 03:40 PM
Remeber that Arroyo allowed 4 HR in one game. Who knows why -- whether it was just bad luck or some mechanical issue. But when it comes to HR rate, the rate of occurrence is low enough that it takes a long time for the stat to stabilize -- compared with K and BB rates. We certainly aren't there yet.

Arroyo's performance this year is right in line with what we've seen with him the past few years. Its just that he started on the down part of his standard up and down fluctuations. Watching fluctuations of a guy's ERA is a pretty poor way to measure how well he's pitching and/or likely to pitch in the future.

He remains an decent #2, good #3 starter. With Harang and Volquez pitching the way they have and the promise still left in the short term pipeline, the Reds are better off when it comes to SP than most NL teams.

Strikes Out Looking
05-29-2008, 03:48 PM
With Harang and Volquez pitching the way they have and the promise still left in the short term pipeline, the Reds are better off when it comes to SP than most NL teams.

I can't remember the last time this could be said about the Reds. With the offense coming together, it may end up being an interesting summer.

fearofpopvol1
05-29-2008, 06:19 PM
Arroyo seems like he'd be a good piece to move. He's under control, not too expensive and he's not an overly consistent pitcher. And there seems to be a lot of young(er) pitching in the wings.

With that said, I'm not sure that the return for Arroyo would be worth moving him for. I don't think you're going to get an elite prospect for him or even a package of promising prospects. Teams are hoarding their prospects now-a-days. I think he has more value to this team by keeping him than moving him. If there is an amazing offer, by all means, the Reds should consider it. I'm just not convinced of it. Even if he the #4-5 starter, that's pretty awesome.

I also agree that we really need to see what the other younger pitchers can do at the majors first. I do think Arroyo is/will be better than Maloney. Homer is a huge question mark and Thompson, who I do like, has a plagued injury past that concerns me.

Falls City Beer
05-29-2008, 06:52 PM
Arroyo's going to take up a decent chunk of the payroll the next two seasons, and I don't want to pay a control guy that kind of cash.

fearofpopvol1
05-29-2008, 06:59 PM
Arroyo's going to take up a decent chunk of the payroll the next two seasons, and I don't want to pay a control guy that kind of cash.

Would you still want to move him if you can't get a good return for him?

Falls City Beer
05-29-2008, 07:15 PM
Would you still want to move him if you can't get a good return for him?

No.

fearofpopvol1
05-29-2008, 07:16 PM
No.

Maybe you can get a good return, but I'm not convinced that would be the case unless someone was desperate and I don't think anyone will be desperate for at least another month.

Falls City Beer
05-29-2008, 07:18 PM
Maybe you can get a good return, but I'm not convinced that would be the case unless someone was desperate and I don't think anyone will be desperate for at least another month.

No problem with waiting a month.

GAC
05-29-2008, 08:03 PM
If you're going to try and move BA, the it better be to a team that is in contention, needs a guy like BA to get them over the hump, and it's for a near-level ready high pitching prospect.

This team still needs pitching. Our #4 and #5 slots are still unsettled, and we're going to trade away our #3 guy?

edabbs44
06-02-2008, 08:11 PM
Arroyo's chart for 2008

http://www.investmentu.com/images/20060724IUB.gif

jojo
06-03-2008, 09:46 AM
Here's a nice look at Bronson Arroyo using pitch f/x by Josh Kalk at THT:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-bronson-arroyo/

Falls City Beer
06-03-2008, 09:50 AM
I can't wait for that FIP to turn into results this season.

The Reds could use it.

Chip R
06-03-2008, 10:22 AM
If you're going to try and move BA, the it better be to a team that is in contention, needs a guy like BA to get them over the hump, and it's for a near-level ready high pitching prospect.

This team still needs pitching. Our #4 and #5 slots are still unsettled, and we're going to trade away our #3 guy?


I agree that a contender would be a great place to move him to. There are certainly no shortage of them.

I hear you and trading Arroyo will affect the pitching depth but you get out from under his deal and you may get some good prospects out of it. I hate to say it but this team isn't going anywhere with or without Bronson. Perhaps a catching prospect or a speedy CF who can find 1st base or even a pitching prospect. I'm thinking someone like Tampa who may need an extra veteran arm down the stretch. Bronson's from FLA and has a certain personality that can capture the attention of fans and the media. Their payroll is low enough they could afford him and they could always trade him during the off-season.

SunDeck
06-03-2008, 10:50 AM
If you're going to try and move BA, the it better be to a team that is in contention, needs a guy like BA to get them over the hump, and it's for a near-level ready high pitching prospect.

This team still needs pitching. Our #4 and #5 slots are still unsettled, and we're going to trade away our #3 guy?

To me BA averages out as a 3 guy on the current rotation. One day he's eating innings and keeping the club in the game like a 2, the next game he's getting batted around like a Weeble Wobble (although happily not to the extent that Fogg does). Ideally, next year he's solidly pushed to the four hole. That may be an expensive four, but I'd take Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo and Thompson/Bailey/Maloney. That could shape up to be a pretty good rotation.

I would hope the next month would really determine his fate. Say Bailey comes up and doesn't tank. That's a piece of the puzzle right there. Say he does and Maloney or Thompson comes up and pitches relatively well. Same outcome basically. Or pick some other scenario where one of those guys makes the step and sticks. You have three guys who are on the verge of the big leagues and Jocketty has to let these guys get a little major league experience under their belt before he can decide what to do with Arroyo. If one or even two of those three guys works out well enough to be a four guy, then I see Arroyo being traded to a desperate contender and to me it's pretty darned cool to see such a possibility; trading away a guy who can actually pitch because the talent exists in house.

It would be nice if all that came to pass in July, but it depends on how well the AAA guy(s) can perform.

Kc61
06-03-2008, 10:55 AM
What could you get at the deadline for Arroyo, Freel and Weathers (assuming he's pitching reasonably ok)? Would have to consider it for a good prospect or two.

jojo
06-03-2008, 11:12 AM
Arroyo is only guaranteed $23M over the next three years (2011 is a club option). If he simply gives the Reds an average of 200 innings of 4.50 ERA ball over those years, he's worth the money. The nice thing with Bronson is that his game isn't dependent upon velocity in the sense that losing a little on his fastball as he turns the corner at 30 shouldn't affect his approach (or effectiveness).

Really there are only a couple of things that can make paying him what he's "worth" a bad deal IMHO.....One is that he falls off a cliff. However, his peripherals suggest he's a reasonable bet not to do that in the next 2-3 seasons (barring injury of course). Another reason would be the emergence of an even cheaper option that can give the Reds similar or better performance. Given the volatility associated with developing arms, it seems reasonable to suggest the Reds aren't likely to have two arms kick down the door in the next 2-3 seasons (thus forcing Bronson out the door).

While Bronson's extension was more risky than Harang's, there isn't much reason yet to conclude Bronson's extension is a disaster or that it will be.

SunDeck
06-03-2008, 11:15 AM
What could you get at the deadline for Arroyo, Freel and Weathers (assuming he's pitching reasonably ok)? Would have to consider it for a good prospect or two.

Good question. I think they need to look at the situation up the middle, whether at Catcher, SS or CF. Of course, maybe Bruce can play CF, but there's going to be a hole there next year somewhere and I'd like to solidify the defense in the middle and put Bruce in the place where he plays best. Is Keppinger good enough to play SS every day? Possibly, but maybe third is better for him and what would they lose ultimately if they deal EE and keep Keppinger (or vice versa, I guess). I think SS is a hugely important position for them to deal with if Gonzalez can't get better.

SunDeck
06-03-2008, 11:18 AM
Arroyo is only guaranteed $23M over the next three years (2011 is a club option). If he simply gives the Reds an average of 200 innings of 4.50 ERA ball over those years, he's worth the money. The nice thing with Bronson is that his game isn't dependent upon velocity in the sense that losing a little on his fastball as he turns the corner at 30 shouldn't affect his approach (or effectiveness).



You've hit on two things I have been trying to put my finger on.

1) Arroyo may not be lights out but he can be dependable, even when his stuff isn't all working. You put that better than I could.

2) Is $23M over three years about what other 3 guys get? I see him as a 4 guy next year and wonder if that's over paying?

Falls City Beer
06-03-2008, 11:26 AM
The league is currently OPSing .890 off Arroyo.

As the defense excuse shrinks (Bruce, Janish, even Hairston's been better than Keppinger), his OPSA doesn't.

In short, he's got to perform better. And right now he's performing worse in two defense-independent areas (BBs and HR).

Obviously, considering the other options right now, Arroyo still very much has a place in this rotation. But I think it's sort of ridiculous to say he's pitching very well (or even just "well") right now.

OnBaseMachine
06-03-2008, 11:34 AM
Arroyo in May:

33.2 IP, 35 H, 1 HR, 14 BB/32 K, 3.74 era

Everyone could see that bad start coming last night. Even when Arroyo is at his best the Phillies are a tough matchup for him.

jojo
06-03-2008, 11:40 AM
You've hit on two things I have been trying to put my finger on.

1) Arroyo may not be lights out but he can be dependable, even when his stuff isn't all working. You put that better than I could.

2) Is $23M over three years about what other 3 guys get? I see him as a 4 guy next year and wonder if that's over paying?

There is one clarification. He's due $23M if the Reds decline his 2011 option (i.e. their out). If they pick up his option, they'd owe him $31.5 for '09 thru '11.

If he has an ERA of 4.50 over those years, that would be roughly 27 runs better than replacement (ERA of 5.70) over 200 IP or basically 2.7 wins better than the "Shearns" of the world. Wins are going for roughly $4M on the open market right now so 4*2.7= $10.8M/yr.

RedsManRick
06-03-2008, 11:44 AM
Three things concern me about Arroyo:

1.) .373 BABIP resulting from a 25.7 LD%. Maybe this has just been variance, or maybe Arroyo has gotten a case of Belislitis (aka, frequent mistake pitches). This leads to...

2.) 3.65 BB/9. He's averaged 2.39 BB/9 the last 5 years. So again, bad luck (patient hitters) or some underlying cause?

3.) 59.8% strikes. He's consistently averaged around 64.9% the last 5 years, with a low of 64.4% last year.

Clearly these aren't unrelated. Arroyo is having troubles commanding his pitches. It's showing up in both more pitches off the plate and more pitches over the heart of the plate. As of now, his increased strikeout rate (perhaps also related), is helping to keep his FIP in the mid 4's. However, I can't help but wonder if FIP misses a bit of the interaction between LD% and non-HR SLG. It seems that pitchers who consistently allow a high LD%, consistently have ERAs higher than their FIP.

That is to say that FIPs linear model isn't appropriate, or at minimum loses accuracy, beyond certain bounds of LD%.

I'm a bit worried simply because I do think there's a performance issue going on. Yes, I do think he's been a bit unlucky. Yes, I do think he's been hurt by the Reds defense. But he's also been wild, at least compared to his former self, and it's showing up in his ERA.

jojo
06-03-2008, 12:16 PM
Three things concern me about Arroyo:

1.) .373 BABIP resulting from a 25.7 LD%. Maybe this has just been variance, or maybe Arroyo has gotten a case of Belislitis (aka, frequent mistake pitches). This leads to...

2.) 3.65 BB/9. He's averaged 2.39 BB/9 the last 5 years. So again, bad luck (patient hitters) or some underlying cause?

3.) 59.8% strikes. He's consistently averaged around 64.9% the last 5 years, with a low of 64.4% last year.

Clearly these aren't unrelated. Arroyo is having troubles commanding his pitches. It's showing up in both more pitches off the plate and more pitches over the heart of the plate. As of now, his increased strikeout rate (perhaps also related), is helping to keep his FIP in the mid 4's. However, I can't help but wonder if FIP misses a bit of the interaction between LD% and non-HR SLG. It seems that pitchers who consistently allow a high LD%, consistently have ERAs higher than their FIP.

That is to say that FIPs linear model isn't appropriate, or at minimum loses accuracy, beyond certain bounds of LD%.

I'm a bit worried simply because I do think there's a performance issue going on. Yes, I do think he's been a bit unlucky. Yes, I do think he's been hurt by the Reds defense. But he's also been wild, at least compared to his former self, and it's showing up in his ERA.

I think sometimes we make too much out of too little.

For instance, 7 of Bronson's 11 HRs this season have come against the Phillies.

paulrichjr
06-03-2008, 12:28 PM
Arroyo in May:

33.2 IP, 35 H, 1 HR, 14 BB/32 K, 3.74 era

Everyone could see that bad start coming last night. Even when Arroyo is at his best the Phillies are a tough matchup for him.


What about the starts on short rest? It irks me that Arroyo pitches good so they give him short rest and then when he blows up they wonder why. (I realize that he was on normal rest this time...but he has pitched 2 outings this past month on 3 days) Arroyo has had problems a couple of different times with his stamina. I can't understand why he is abused and then everyone jumps on him when he has a rough outing not too long after the abuse.

fearofpopvol1
06-03-2008, 12:39 PM
Arroyo had 5 great starts leading up to last night. The guy is going to have a stinker every now and then. It's to be expected. As someone else pointed out last night, that Phillies lineup is about the worst possible matchup for Arroyo. Let's see how he does in his next start (or 2).

RedsManRick
06-03-2008, 12:51 PM
I think sometimes we make too much out of too little.

For instance, 7 of Bronson's 11 HRs this season have come against the Phillies.

Sure, I'll grant you sample size, especially on HR. But nearly 1300 pitches is a decent sample and I imagine that strike percentage is something that stabilizes fairly quickly. My conclusion was more one of a small scale cascade effect from a control problem. Perhaps that control issue is due simply to variance, but I'm guessing there's more to it. Time should tell.