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Benihana
05-05-2008, 10:09 AM
More ammo against drafting catchers in the first round:

--

As a Reds fan, I'm hoping Devin Mesoraco eventually develops into a poor man's Russell Martin. Taking a high school catcher in the first round is risky, and drafting one from a cold-weather state is even riskier. Can you give me the development path of some recent high school catchers taken in the first round?

Rob Yontz
St. Louis

Martin, a third baseman at Chipola (Fla.) JC, was a steal for the Dodgers as a 17th-round pick in 2002. If Mesoraco develops close to as quickly and as well as Martin did, he'll make the Reds happy. He'll also buck the trend of high school first-round catchers falling by the wayside.

Since I started working full-time for Baseball America in 1989, 16 prep catchers have gone in the first round, and just two have become all-stars behind the plate. Not coincidentally, Joe Mauer was the No. 1 overall choice in the 2001 draft, while Mike Lieberthal went No. 3 in 1990. Being a lofty pick is no guarantee, though, because Ben Davis and Tyler Houston were No. 2 overall selections. Daric Barton, Houston, Paul Konerko, Neil Walker and Jayson Werth wound up changing positions, while Ramon Castro, Ryan Christianson, Davis, Scott Heard and Mark Johnson were busts.

The most recent high school first-round backstops aren't any more encouraging. Brandon Snyder has moved from behind the plate. Scouts believe that Hank Conger and Max Sapp may have to do the same, and Conger hasn't been able to stay healthy, while Sapp hasn't had much success as a hitter.

Mesoraco has yet to light up pro ball, either. He batted .219/.270/.310 with one homer in 40 games in his debut last summer in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, and he has spent all of this season in extended spring training.

The track record of college first-round catchers isn't much better. Surprisingly, just 11 college backstops have gone in the first round of the last 19 drafts. Of that group, only Charles Johnson and Dan Wilson have become all-star catchers. Jon Farrell, Mitch Maier, Eric Munson, David Parrish and Alan Zinter were disappointments, while Landon Powell hasn't been able to stay healthy. With Kenji Johjima signed through 2011, Jeff Clement will have to help the Mariners as a first baseman/DH. The jury is still out on 2007 picks J.P. Arencibia and Matt Wieters, though Wieters looks like a possible superstar.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/266022.html

dougdirt
05-05-2008, 10:35 AM
More ammo? That just sounds like a repeat of what we all already know.

Benihana
05-05-2008, 11:32 AM
More ammo? That just sounds like a repeat of what we all already know.

Good, then I'll repeat that it was a bad pick then and a bad pick now.

dougdirt
05-05-2008, 12:14 PM
Good, then I'll repeat that it was a bad pick then and a bad pick now.

Bad pick is different than very risky pick. Bad pick is Matt Bush #1 overall. Risky pick is Mesoraco. Quite a difference between the two.

edabbs44
05-05-2008, 12:43 PM
Bad pick is different than very risky pick. Bad pick is Matt Bush #1 overall. Risky pick is Mesoraco. Quite a difference between the two.

Maybe not in a couple of years.

Blue
05-05-2008, 01:10 PM
Maybe not in a couple of years.

Yeah, maybe. What's the point of this? The title of this thread should have been "BA on drafting catchers in the first round (mentions Mesoraco)".

dougdirt
05-05-2008, 01:15 PM
Maybe not in a couple of years.
Maybe, but unlike a bad pick, its going to take time to figure that one out. Matt Bush went #1 overall and wasn't even seen as a first round talent by some. Thats a bad pick. Mesoraco on the flip side was a first round talent to everyone, he just plays a risky position.

Benihana
05-05-2008, 03:56 PM
Yeah, maybe. What's the point of this? The title of this thread should have been "BA on drafting catchers in the first round (mentions Mesoraco)".

Isn't that basically what it is?

Kingspoint
05-05-2008, 09:00 PM
Nice article. Thanks for posting.

It just confirms one more time that it was a bad pick.


There were a lot better catchers than him that could have been drafted.

dougdirt
05-05-2008, 09:04 PM
Nice article. Thanks for posting.

It just confirms one more time that it was a bad pick.

It doesn't do anything like that.

edabbs44
05-06-2008, 07:59 AM
Maybe, but unlike a bad pick, its going to take time to figure that one out. Matt Bush went #1 overall and wasn't even seen as a first round talent by some. Thats a bad pick. Mesoraco on the flip side was a first round talent to everyone, he just plays a risky position.

BA had Bush as a top 10 prospect in the draft. I believe he was 7 or 8 overall.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 11:17 AM
BA had Bush as a top 10 prospect in the draft. I believe he was 7 or 8 overall.

I said some people. I know that I have read at least 1 team had him as the 34th best prospect coming into the draft. While that could be supplemental first round, its still pretty far down there.

Red Daddy
05-06-2008, 03:10 PM
No way I'm counting out Mesoraco now. He has huge upside. He has more tools than a major league catcher should have. He played last year with injured hands. Give the guy this year to get it together or not.

I was shocked too when the Reds picked him first, pretty disappointed, but I'm waiting to see how it turns out before dogging the Reds on this pick.

Benihana
05-06-2008, 03:27 PM
No way I'm counting out Mesoraco now. He has huge upside. He has more tools than a major league catcher should have. He played last year with injured hands. Give the guy this year to get it together or not.

I was shocked too when the Reds picked him first, pretty disappointed, but I'm waiting to see how it turns out before dogging the Reds on this pick.

No one is "counting out Mesoraco now" just as no one is counting out Stubbs now. I really hope both of these guys come on strong, defy the odds, and prove all the naysayers wrong. However, you have to look at the pick in it's context, and with all of the information available at the time, it was a bad choice drafting these guys where they did. That's all I'm saying.

And if Mesoraco isn't dazzling us in rookie ball this summer, his star will start to fade real fast.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 03:42 PM
No one is "counting out Mesoraco now" just as no one is counting out Stubbs now. I really hope both of these guys come on strong, defy the odds, and prove all the naysayers wrong. However, you have to look at the pick in it's context, and with all of the information available at the time, it was a bad choice drafting these guys where they did. That's all I'm saying.

And if Mesoraco isn't dazzling us in rookie ball this summer, his star will start to fade real fast.
What information are you talking about?

Mesoraco - Good plate discipline, good bat speed, above average power, very good defensive tools....

Stubbs - Very good defensive tools, great speed, raw power, good plate discipline and needs work on his swing.

So Mesoraco was a bad choice at the time because he is a catcher? Stubbs was a bad pick at the time because he needed work on his swing but Tim Lincecum was a slam dunk because he only needed to hone in his control? Color me confused.

Blue
05-06-2008, 04:00 PM
There were a lot better catchers than him that could have been drafted.

Now THAT is an interesting edit. Who in the draft was a better catcher besides Wieters, who was already off the table?

edabbs44
05-06-2008, 10:44 PM
Stubbs was a bad pick at the time because he needed work on his swing but Tim Lincecum was a slam dunk because he only needed to hone in his control? Color me confused.

You know, since the draft the debate has been Stubbs/Lincecum. Here are the top pitching prospects in the draft and who was available at the time they took Stubbs. Bolded names were available and ranking was overall ranking by BA. Stubbs was ranked 11th.

#1 - Miller (taken by Detroit 6th overall)
#2 - Tim Lincecum
#3 - Lincoln (taken by Pitt 4th overall)
#5 - Reynolds (taken by Colorado 2nd overall)
#6 - Kershaw (taken by LA 7th overall)
#7 - Joba Chamberlain
#8 - Hochevar (taken by KC 1st overall)
#9 - Max Scherzer
#10 - Morrow (taken by Seattle 5th overall)

The field is widening...Lincecum, Joba and Scherzer were all available when they were drafting.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 10:53 PM
You know, since the draft the debate has been Stubbs/Lincecum. Here are the top pitching prospects in the draft and who was available at the time they took Stubbs. Bolded names were available and ranking was overall ranking by BA. Stubbs was ranked 11th.

#1 - Miller (taken by Detroit 6th overall)
#2 - Tim Lincecum
#3 - Lincoln (taken by Pitt 4th overall)
#5 - Reynolds (taken by Colorado 2nd overall)
#6 - Kershaw (taken by LA 7th overall)
#7 - Joba Chamberlain
#8 - Hochevar (taken by KC 1st overall)
#9 - Max Scherzer
#10 - Morrow (taken by Seattle 5th overall)

The field is widening...Lincecum, Joba and Scherzer were all available when they were drafting.

So only Evan Longoria was a position player ranked in the top 10?

fearofpopvol1
05-07-2008, 12:37 AM
All of these people claiming they wanted Lincecum or that's who they would've taken at the time...I'd love to see these "dated" posts. Maybe there were some, but it seems questionable that there was some overwhelming majority.

And I'm not defending Stubbs, either.

Kingspoint
05-07-2008, 12:39 AM
Now THAT is an interesting edit. Who in the draft was a better catcher besides Wieters, who was already off the table?


Mitch Canham, for one. He had surgery in July for a groin-related injury, but is in High-A right now and hitting .300. He hit .300 after his surgery last summer, and he played to the last day of the College World Series.

cincyinco
05-07-2008, 04:33 AM
All of these people claiming they wanted Lincecum or that's who they would've taken at the time...I'd love to see these "dated" posts. Maybe there were some, but it seems questionable that there was some overwhelming majority.

And I'm not defending Stubbs, either.

Feel free to look it up. One of the things I was proud about was predicting his fall to the reds several weeks in advance.

Not sure how much clazmoring there was though because not many thought he would fall like he did. But its one thing I can proudly and confidently say I saw coming.

edabbs44
05-07-2008, 05:46 AM
So only Evan Longoria was a position player ranked in the top 10?

Weird, isn't it?


Rank Player Position Class B-T Ht. Wt. School Hometown Birthdate
1. Andrew Miller lhp Jr. R-L 6-6 210 North Carolina Gainesville, Fla. 5/21/85
2. Tim Lincecum rhp Jr. L-R 6-0 165 Washington Renton, Wash. 6/15/84
3. Brad Lincoln rhp Jr. L-R 6-0 200 Houston Clute, Texas 5/25/85
4. Evan Longoria 3b/2b Jr. R-R 6-2 213 Long Beach State Downey, Calif. 10/7/85
5. Greg Reynolds rhp Jr. R-R 6-7 225 Stanford Pacifica, Calif. 7/3/85
6. Clayton Kershaw lhp Sr. L-L 6-3 210 Highland Park HS Dallas 3/19/88
7. Joba Chamberlain rhp Jr. R-R 6-3 225 Nebraska Lincoln, Neb. 9/23/85
8. Luke Hochevar rhp -- R-R 6-4 198 None Fowler, Colo. 9/15/83
9. Max Scherzer rhp Jr. R-R 6-2 210 Missouri Chesterfield, Mo. 7/27/84
10. Brandon Morrow rhp Jr. R-R 6-3 190 California Rohnert Park, Calif. 7/26/84
11. Drew Stubbs of Jr. R-R 6-4 201 Texas Atlanta, Texas 10/4/84
12. Kyle Drabek rhp/ss Sr. R-R 6-1 190 The Woodlands HS The Woodlands, Texas 12/8/87
13. Pedro Beato rhp Fr. R-R 6-5 210 St. Petersburg (Fla.) JC Queens, N.Y. 10/27/86
14. Jeremy Jeffress rhp Sr. R-R 6-0 174 Halifax County HS South Boston, Va. 9/21/87
15. Daniel Bard rhp Jr. R-R 6-4 202 North Carolina Charlotte, N.C. 6/25/85
16. Kyle McCulloch rhp Jr. R-R 6-3 185 Texas Houston 3/20/85
17. Bill Rowell 3b Sr. L-R 6-4 198 Bishop Eustace Prep Sewell, N.J. 9/10/88
18. Travis Snider of Sr. L-L 6-0 220 Jackson HS Everett, Wash. 2/8/88
19. Brett Anderson lhp Sr. L-L 6-4 205 Stillwater HS Stillwater, Okla. 2/1/88
20. Hank Conger c Sr. B-R 6-2 205 Huntington Beach HS Huntington Beach, Calif. 1/29/88

edabbs44
05-07-2008, 10:18 PM
Feel free to look it up. One of the things I was proud about was predicting his fall to the reds several weeks in advance.

Not sure how much clazmoring there was though because not many thought he would fall like he did. But its one thing I can proudly and confidently say I saw coming.

Yeah, Stubbs wasn't a popular pick.

I was pulling for Scherzer.

Blitz Dorsey
05-07-2008, 10:29 PM
Krivsky was awful at handling the draft. This was a classic case of the Reds deciding before the draft who they were doing to take. They thought there was no way Lincecum was going to fall to them. When he did, they froze and took the guy they targeted.

We really need to quit bringing this up though. I still have nightmares about this draft. Imagine adding Lincecum or Scherzer or Chamberlain to our staff right now. Instead we're stuck with Stubbs who will never be a good MLB player IMO. It's not even a sure-thing that he will make it to the big leagues, although I have no doubt he will.

princeton
05-08-2008, 10:22 AM
Krivsky was awful at handling the draft. This was a classic case of the Reds deciding before the draft who they were doing to take. They thought there was no way Lincecum was going to fall to them. When he did, they froze and took the guy they targeted.

I doubt the freezing part.

Reds just don't like little RHPers. Lincecum was never of interest.

Benihana
05-08-2008, 10:40 AM
I doubt the freezing part.

Reds just don't like little RHPers. Lincecum was never of interest.

I don't know, I think they would've traded Cueto if that was the case.

princeton
05-08-2008, 11:28 AM
I don't know, I think they would've traded Cueto if that was the case.

they considered it.

have a look at all of the RHPers that have been drafted in the last two years. It's like a basketball program, except without point guards.

Benihana
05-08-2008, 11:31 AM
they considered it.

have a look at all of the RHPers that have been drafted in the last two years. It's like a basketball program, except without point guards.

Then what was the excuse for passing on Scherzer?

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 12:07 PM
Then what was the excuse for passing on Scherzer?

They thought Stubbs was better?

Benihana
05-08-2008, 01:16 PM
They thought Stubbs was better?

:thumbdown

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 01:18 PM
:thumbdown

You obviously disagree.... but you wanted an answer. I really hope that was the reason.

LoganBuck
05-08-2008, 01:35 PM
I wanted Scherzer. His problem was signability and he held out for every dollar. Here is the article from when he signed. Notice the date. Redszone had already been having kittens about Stubbs for a whole year. Imagine the debacle the Scherzer pick would have been.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/264039.html

Benihana
05-08-2008, 01:39 PM
Regardless, let's focus on the topic of the thread. D-Mes is now in Dayton, so let's see what he can do. Obviously, I won't be holding my breath, but I'd really like to see the kid prove us all wrong and rake the rest of the year. The good news is, we'll find out soon...

As for Stubbs, if he's not in Chattanooga by August, he's looking like Bust City.

medford
05-08-2008, 01:46 PM
It will be interesting to see how Devon performs in Dayton the next couple of weeks. Unfairly or not, if he struggles in his first month w/ the Dragons people are going to start screaming bust even louder, bad draft pick, etc...

I'm excited to start reading the first hand reports and game threads w/ Devon's performance in them.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 01:48 PM
It will be interesting to see how Devon performs in Dayton the next couple of weeks. Unfairly or not, if he struggles in his first month w/ the Dragons people are going to start screaming bust even louder, bad draft pick, etc...

I'm excited to start reading the first hand reports and game threads w/ Devon's performance in them.

The Dragons are on TV in the Cincinnati and Dayton area next weekend, so we should get a chance to see him even if its not in person real soon.

medford
05-08-2008, 01:49 PM
thanks for the heads up Doug, I'll have to set the DVR

lollipopcurve
05-08-2008, 04:33 PM
As for Stubbs, if he's not in Chattanooga by August, he's looking like Bust City.

There have been several declarations about how the bustedness of Stubbs was assuredly assured by this or that criterion, or how it would soon be confirmed by this or that deadline. It's a little comical. Fact is, he's been improving, so it is only logical to say that the accident scene in which we find Stubbs all busted up is not smoking on the horizon, either ahead or in the rearview mirror.
His future will be decided on the field, not by a farm director arranging late season promotions.

Blitz Dorsey
05-08-2008, 05:45 PM
Stubbs is a bust because I say so. Case closed.

(Kidding.)

As for Mesoraco, I think this is a great sign. I don't expect him to have good stats at Dayton and I think he might finish up the season at Billings (which is still a good league) but I think it's just good he's going to get this experience. And if he does put up good stats at Dayton and stays there all year, it will be a very nice surprise. Then we might know we have our catcher of the future.

edabbs44
05-08-2008, 07:49 PM
I wanted Scherzer. His problem was signability and he held out for every dollar. Here is the article from when he signed. Notice the date. Redszone had already been having kittens about Stubbs for a whole year. Imagine the debacle the Scherzer pick would have been.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/264039.html

I would rather have a transaction look like a debacle at first and end up being great than look great at the time and end up being a debacle.

NOTE: I am in no way saying that Stubbs is a debacle. But the Scherzer pick is kind of looking damn great, no?

Benihana
05-08-2008, 07:59 PM
I would rather have a transaction look like a debacle at first and end up being great than look great at the time and end up being a debacle.

Kinda like drafting Homer Bailey over a college arm.

I had to fight that battle on here for months ;)

LoganBuck
05-08-2008, 09:36 PM
I would rather have a transaction look like a debacle at first and end up being great than look great at the time and end up being a debacle.

NOTE: I am in no way saying that Stubbs is a debacle. But the Scherzer pick is kind of looking damn great, no?

I should have been more clear. It was a toss up that he would get signed at that time. The signing came out of the blue because Arizona caved just before the 2007 draft. Scott Boras got his money. I am not sure the Reds would have acquiesced. They like to pay slot money.