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Joseph
05-06-2008, 03:45 PM
1 - Jay Bruce
2 - Homer Bailey
3 - Johnny Cueto
4 - Joey Votto
5 - Todd Frazier
6 - Drew Stubbs
7 - Matt Maloney
8 - Josh Roenicke
9 - Travis Wood
10 - Devin Mesoraco
11 - Kyle Lotzkar
12 - Danny Dorn
13 - Sean Watson
14 - Carlos Fisher
15 - Juan Francisco
16 - Neftali Soto
17 - Brandon Waring
18 - Adam Rosales
19 - Tyler Pelland
20 - Daryl Thompson
21 - Pedro Viola
22 - Chris Valaika
23 - Sam Lecure
24 - Marcus McBeth
25 - Justin Turner
26 - Chris Dickerson
27 - Scott Carroll
28 - Richie Gardner
29 - Justin Reed
30 - Paul Janish
31 - Alexander Smit
32 - Danny Herrera
33 - Zach Cozart
34 - Tzu-Kai Chiu
35 - Ramon Ramrirez
36 - Derrik Lutz
37 - Evan Hildenbrandt
38 - Josh Ravin
39 - Ben Jukich
40 - Craig Tatum


The above was the first [?] official Redszone.com prospect ranking. Since this was completed just prior to the season we've had some sterling performances from the likes of guys like Thompson, Bailey, Wood....and we've lost some guys like Richie Gardener to the Brewers on waivers, and Cueto has come up to be a solid addition to the Major League rotation with Votto working hard at 1B. We've seen guys struggle like Maloney who was highly regarded.

Those facts out there, how do you guys think the top 10 or 20 would rank now?

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 03:53 PM
I would say its very similar to what its like now for the top 10. My current top 10 would be:

1. Jay Bruce
2. Homer Bailey
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Joey Votto
5. Drew Stubbs
6. Daryl Thompson
7. Travis Wood
8. Todd Frazier
9. Devin Mesoraco
10. Chris Valaika

Thats my top 10 right now.

icehole3
05-06-2008, 03:58 PM
the guy I was pimping Waring is quietly sneaking in the top ten, go ahead guys and keep underestimating my guy, once he hits his 30 bombs you'll think different about my guy.

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Props/cheering.gif

Joseph
05-06-2008, 04:09 PM
1 - Jay Bruce
2 - Homer Bailey
3 - Daryl Thompson
4 - Travis Wood
5 - Chris Valaika
6 - Drew Stubbs
7 - Todd Frazier
8 - Brandon Waring
9 - Jordan Smith
10 - Danny Herrera

I took out Votto and Cueto, if they are still prospects, they'd come in highly of course.

Kc61
05-06-2008, 04:10 PM
Bruce
Bailey
Thompson
Frazier
Stubbs
Valaika
Roenicke
Wood
Turner
Francisco

Mesoraco
Waring
Lotzkar
Herrera
Smith

Cumberland
Soto
Carroll
Montano
Janish
Maloney
Cozart

Roenicke will be fine. He was the hardest thrower in spring training. Herrera may be short of stature but has an amazing minor league record.
And Turner will be a fine major league player. As for Francisco, he is still very young and playing High A.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 04:12 PM
the guy I was pimping Waring is quietly sneaking in the top ten, go ahead guys and keep underestimating my guy, once he hits his 30 bombs you'll think different about my guy.

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Props/cheering.gif

Not if he is still striking out a ton and not walking much...

Blue
05-06-2008, 04:38 PM
Not if he is still striking out a ton and not walking much...

He still deserves Top 10 status once Votto and Cueto are no longer prospects.

TRF
05-06-2008, 04:47 PM
I would say its very similar to what its like now for the top 10. My current top 10 would be:

1. Jay Bruce
2. Homer Bailey
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Joey Votto
5. Drew Stubbs
6. Daryl Thompson
7. Travis Wood
8. Todd Frazier
9. Devin Mesoraco
10. Chris Valaika

Thats my top 10 right now.

Reality says that Cueto and Votto are major contributers to the Reds, while Bailey is in Louisville. IMO guys on the 25 man roster shouldn't count. I'd still have Bailey at #2, but no way is Stubb higher than Thompson or Wood at this point.


Bruce
Bailey
Thompson
Wood
Valaika
Stubbs
Frazier
Waring
Montano
Henry/Cumberland (tied. couldn't decide between them. both age appropriate for AA and raking.I'm giving props to Stubbs, but he's tailing off a bit. 2 for his last 21 with a couple of BB's. But IMO he gets the #6 because of his defense and that he's improved his SB%. But he needs to hit because he's about to get lapped by a couple of guys in Dayton.

I'd have Henry/Cumberland higher, but I don't know much about their game defensively.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 04:48 PM
He still deserves Top 10 status once Votto and Cueto are no longer prospects.

I dunno.... he makes Drew Stubbs look like a contact hitter. He strikes out 25% more than Stubbs did and everyone was railing on Stubbs poor contact abilities.

TRF
05-06-2008, 04:50 PM
I dunno.... he makes Drew Stubbs look like a contact hitter. He strikes out 25% more than Stubbs did and everyone was railing on Stubbs poor contact abilities.

Is this the same Waring hitting .299 with a .389 OBP? sign me up for three of those please.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 04:54 PM
Is this the same Waring hitting .299 with a .389 OBP? sign me up for three of those please.

Yeah, but the question is do those umbers project forward striking out 32% of the time he steps to the plate in LOW A as a 22 year old to that type of production in the future? Me, I would say there is absolutely no way it continues as he moves up unless he cuts those strikeouts down BIG time.

HBP
05-06-2008, 04:59 PM
Bruce
Bailey
Thompson
Frazier
Stubbs
Valaika
Roenicke
Wood
Turner
Francisco


Agree with this except I put Valaika ahead of Stubbs.

klw
05-06-2008, 05:04 PM
And to think that Daryl Thompson wasn't even on the list to be voted on until round 8 this past voting season. He really has climbed with his quick start.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63710&highlight=redszone+prospect+vote&page=4

lollipopcurve
05-06-2008, 05:16 PM
Re-jiggering this list is tough after 1 month of play. However, I feel pretty confident that there's been some underrating and overrating (which should be expected)....

Overrated:
Maloney, Watson, Fisher, Smit, Ramirez, Lecure

Underrated:
Thompson, Valaika, Herrera, Cumberland

Benihana
05-06-2008, 05:26 PM
Yeah, but the question is do those umbers project forward striking out 32% of the time he steps to the plate in LOW A as a 22 year old to that type of production in the future? Me, I would say there is absolutely no way it continues as he moves up unless he cuts those strikeouts down BIG time.

You're the same guy who was drooling over a guy who hit .270 with a .368 OBP while striking out 29% of the time he stepped to the plate in LOW A as a 22 (later 23) year old. Be consistent Doug.

Benihana
05-06-2008, 05:29 PM
Bruce
Bailey
Thompson
Frazier
Stubbs
Valaika
Roenicke
Wood
Turner
Francisco


Agree except that I'd replace the last two with Lotzkar and Maloney.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 05:30 PM
You're the same guy who was drooling over a guy who hit .270 with a .368 OBP while striking out 29% of the time he stepped to the plate in LOW A as a 22 (later 23) year old. Be consistent Doug.

If you are talking about Stubbs, it was actually a 24.7% strikeout rate (strikeout rate is K/PA not K/AB). Then we also have to look at the rest of the package. Stubbs has plus plus speed. Stubbs has plus defense. Stubbs has strong plate discipline. Brandon Waring has plus power. Thats about it. He isn't very good defensively, and his plate discipline is mediocre at best. And Stubbs was never 23 in Low A, he turned 23 in October. Waring is hovering around 15 for me still.... love the power, but every other part of his game needs work.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-06-2008, 05:33 PM
1 - Jay Bruce
2 - Homer Bailey
3 - Todd Frazier
4 - Daryl Thompson (up 16 places)
5 - Drew Stubbs
6 - Travis Wood
7 - Matt Maloney
8 - Brandon Waring (up 9 places)
9 - Devin Mesoraco
10 - Chris Valaika (up 12 places)
11 - Kyle Lotzkar
12 - Shaun Cumberland (not in top 40 list before)
14 - Josh Roenicke
12 - Juan Francisco
15 - Neftali Soto

TRF
05-06-2008, 05:40 PM
If you are talking about Stubbs, it was actually a 24.7% strikeout rate (strikeout rate is K/PA not K/AB). Then we also have to look at the rest of the package. Stubbs has plus plus speed. Stubbs has plus defense. Stubbs has strong plate discipline. Brandon Waring has plus power. Thats about it. He isn't very good defensively, and his plate discipline is mediocre at best. And Stubbs was never 23 in Low A, he turned 23 in October. Waring is hovering around 15 for me still.... love the power, but every other part of his game needs work.

Stubbs had other warts as well. His running game was awful, he was a K machine and right now he's in an awful slump. He might have just had a really hot 3 weeks, and he's slipping toward his career norms. And his norms so far are kinda sucky.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 05:54 PM
Stubbs had other warts as well. His running game was awful, he was a K machine and right now he's in an awful slump. He might have just had a really hot 3 weeks, and he's slipping toward his career norms. And his norms so far are kinda sucky.

His running game wasn't awful, he was injured. Big difference. And while he was 'A K machine' as you put it, Waring is striking out 25% MORE than Stubbs was. Does that make Waring a strikeout factory?

Benihana
05-06-2008, 06:30 PM
Yeah, yeah. We've heard this all before :rolleyes:

BuckeyeRedleg
05-06-2008, 06:35 PM
If Waring keeps posting a .900+ OPS (currently .985 after 400 PA's as a pro) I could care less how much he strikes out.

AmarilloRed
05-06-2008, 07:23 PM
Dorn was at 12 before the season. How far has his injury(or other factors) dropped him on the top 40?

TRF
05-06-2008, 09:52 PM
If Waring keeps posting a .900+ OPS (currently .985 after 400 PA's as a pro) I could care less how much he strikes out.

ding ding. That's the difference between the two.

Superdude
05-06-2008, 10:08 PM
If you are talking about Stubbs, it was actually a 24.7% strikeout rate (strikeout rate is K/PA not K/AB).

K/AB is better Doug. If you're using strikeouts as a predictor of batting average, why would you include walks when they have no effect on batting average at all? K/PA makes guys like '07 Stubbs look better than they are at making contact.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 10:24 PM
K/AB is better Doug. If you're using strikeouts as a predictor of batting average, why would you include walks when they have no effect on batting average at all? K/PA makes guys like '07 Stubbs look better than they are at making contact.
I am not using it as a predictor of batting average. The more you strike out, the fewer chances you have to put the ball in play and actually get hits or draw walks to get on base. Waring strikes out more than any player in the system not named BJ Szymanski.

Superdude
05-06-2008, 11:20 PM
I am not using it as a predictor of batting average. The more you strike out, the fewer chances you have to put the ball in play and actually get hits or draw walks to get on base.

Sure a walk is better than a strikeout, but why muddle up the stats by mixing contact ability and drawing walks? Especially when you can isolate the two events into K/AB and BB/PA?


Waring strikes out more than any player in the system not named BJ Szymanski.

Can't argue that one.

dougdirt
05-06-2008, 11:30 PM
Sure a walk is better than a strikeout, but why muddle up the stats by mixing contact ability and drawing walks? Especially when you can isolate the two events into K/AB and BB/PA?


I guess because the rate at which you strikeout is measured to me just like OBP, every time you step to the plate.

*BaseClogger*
05-06-2008, 11:49 PM
I was voting for Thompson around #19, but then people talked me out of it so I switched to Viola. Oops!

Kc61
05-06-2008, 11:52 PM
Roenicke with a perfect inning tonight and two Ks. Some are giving up on him a bit prematurely. Guy has a golden arm and closer stuff. His command will get there and he will be a Reds late inning reliever. He's moved fast, undoubtedly will be bumps in the road. But the real deal.

Aronchis
05-07-2008, 12:57 AM
Put Bailey,Bruce and Roenicke on the Reds roster and everything looks better. The poor roster construction will still be around. But a good GM could fix that over the winter.

It is just those 3 guys putting those final touches on and dominating the highest level you can in the minors.

OnBaseMachine
05-12-2008, 03:45 PM
My revised top 10:

1. Jay Bruce
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Joey Votto
4. Homer Bailey (nothing he's did wrong)
5. Todd Frazier
6. Daryl Thompson
7. Chris Valaika
8. Drew Stubbs
9. Travis Wood
10. Josh Roenicke