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RedsManRick
05-07-2008, 03:38 PM
From Marc Hulet at Fangraphs.com

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-stubbs-too-stubborn-to-succeed



Drew Stubbs has always been a talented ballplayer. He was a third round pick of the Houston Astros out of high school (Heís a Texas native) but chose to attend the University of Texas. He was then selected in the first round (eighth overall), and signed, by the Cincinnati Reds in 2006.

The 6-5, 190 pound outfielder looks like a ballplayer; he oozes tools and has excellent makeup. But there have always been questions about how well he would adjust to pro ball with a long swing and a history of difficulties with breaking balls.

Those concerns appeared justified after Stubbs, now 23, made his debut in the Pioneer Rookie League and hit only .252/.368/.400, which should be considered below average for a collegiate player in a league comprised mostly of high schoolers and raw Latin players. He also struck out 64 times in 210 at-bats.

The next season in 2007, Stubbs started out slowly in the Midwest League while many other top 2006 college picks were already in High-A ball. He was striking out at an alarming rate and many said those Ks would be the downfall of his professional career. Then the Dayton management, tired of seeing the players strikeout too much, forced everyone to choke up on the bat for a week.

Stubbs was so successful with that approach that he kept doing it, even after the choking-up enforcement was lifted. In the first year and a half of his career, Stubbs struck out 190 times in 161 games. In his last 24 games of 2007, Stubbs struck out only 16 times.

This season, though, the strikeouts are back with 34 in 31 games (115 at-bats), but he is hitting .296/.388/.470. Overall in 2007, he struck out 28.6 percent of the time. In 2008, heís at 29.2 percent. If Stubbs can maintain his triple-slash rates while striking out at the same pace, he can still be an effective everyday ballplayer. However, itís hard to believe he can continue to do so once he hits the better pitching that comes at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, let alone the majors.

Matt700wlw
05-07-2008, 03:39 PM
I hope he isn't terse

dougdirt
05-07-2008, 03:40 PM
How does that title go with the content of the article at all?

As for the question.... no, he isn't.

lollipopcurve
05-07-2008, 03:51 PM
He was supposed to crash and burn in the FSL, too.

Aronchis
05-07-2008, 04:13 PM
He was supposed to crash and burn in the FSL, too.

He still may

NJReds
05-07-2008, 04:42 PM
He still may

...and he may not.

princeton
05-07-2008, 05:03 PM
I figure that he's a Chattanooga player, easy. If BJ Szymanski can hit there, anyone can.

all bets are off after that.

lollipopcurve
05-07-2008, 05:14 PM
I figure that he's a Chattanooga player, easy. If BJ Szymanski can hit there, anyone can.

Sometimes it takes a tools guy some time to learn how to use them. BJ's OPS against LHs is looking pretty good right now. I think he's got a chance to get beyond AA with a ceiling as a platoon guy in the bigs. Stubbs is just better than BJ -- hands down.

RedsManRick
05-07-2008, 05:30 PM
I think everybody agrees that Stubbs has a boatload of talent. The issue is that he's already 23 and only in high A ball. It's not that he won't make it, just that he's got a long ways to go yet and time is working against him. He needs to move a level a year. So far, so good in 2008, but he's got to keep up this rate of improvement for the next 3.

Striking out a ton is a lot like not striking guys out for pitchers. It's not the sort of thing that goes away with time and tends to get worse. Stubbs is pretty much at the limit of of striking out while being a productive player. He's going to have to continue working at his contact rate, because if it goes downhill as he goes up the levels, he's toast.

Highlifeman21
05-07-2008, 05:42 PM
I think everybody agrees that Stubbs has a boatload of talent. The issue is that he's already 23 and only in high A ball. It's not that he won't make it, just that he's got a long ways to go yet and time is working against him. He needs to move a level a year. So far, so good in 2008, but he's got to keep up this rate of improvement for the next 3.

Striking out a ton is a lot like not striking guys out for pitchers. It's not the sort of thing that goes away with time and tends to get worse. Stubbs is pretty much at the limit of of striking out while being a productive player. He's going to have to continue working at his contact rate, because if it goes downhill as he goes up the levels, he's toast.

That's the kind of language that supports why Stubbs is a bust so far to this point in his career.

He may get it all figured out and have a glorious MLB career, but time is working against him. His long swing isn't helping his cause either.

Thankfully, he's Secretariat @ the Preakness in CF, and that alone will eventually get him a roster spot on someone's 25 man roster. Hopefully that someone's 25 man roster is the Reds, and hopefully it's sooner than later, but IMO the earliest we'll see Stubbs in a Reds jersey is 2010.

dougdirt
05-07-2008, 06:11 PM
That's the kind of language that supports why Stubbs is a bust so far to this point in his career.


See, I just don't see that. If he keeps hitting he will finish the year in AA at age 23. Thats not off target for a lot of people....

Joseph
05-07-2008, 08:39 PM
He's not a bust, but I do think he needs to make AA this year, and perhaps force his way into AAA next year out of spring training. At worst if he's not in AAA at some point next year, then the talk of bust should start in earnest as opposed to just the knee jerk reactions we tend to take a lot of times.

TRF
05-07-2008, 10:15 PM
See, I just don't see that. If he keeps hitting he will finish the year in AA at age 23. Thats not off target for a lot of people....

Except he's not hitting. He hasn't really hit in a week. His professional career to date is so screwy we can't tell yet what the REAL Stubbs is at the plate. I want him to be everything you think he is, but the stats don't bear that out. His play right now isn't screaming promotion.

dougdirt
05-07-2008, 10:34 PM
He has had a week long slump. He has been a little unlucky over that time posting a .150 BABIP over the last week. During that time though, he also has 5 walks and 8 strikeouts.

Cooper
05-08-2008, 10:27 AM
That .150 BABIP isn't unlucky. His BABIP has been way high all year long -it was due for an adjustment.

RedsManRick
05-08-2008, 11:26 AM
See, I just don't see that. If he keeps hitting he will finish the year in AA at age 23. Thats not off target for a lot of people....

And "a lot of people" weren't top 15 draft picks.

That puts him in the majors with a cup of coffee at 25 and full time at age 25 -- at the very earliest. When Chris Denorfia was on that timeline he was dismissed as a near non-prospect, despite his .900 OPS in AA and AAA at age 24.

It's pretty well established that players who make a big impact in the majors tend to reach the majors at an early age. That's not to say Stubbs isn't going to make or won't be a good player. However, you tell a team, any team, that their first round pick isn't going to be a major leaguer until age 26 and they're going to be a bit disappointed. The odds are against him, more so than they are against the typical first round pick.

I'm really excited about Stubbs ability and ceiling. But history suggests he's facing a steep uphill climb to realize it. I continue to fail to understand why you can't hold both perspectives, Doug.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 12:08 PM
That .150 BABIP isn't unlucky. His BABIP has been way high all year long -it was due for an adjustment.

Not really, becuase his line drive rate has been over 30%. His BABIP was right in line with what his line drive rate would have suggested.

Joseph
05-08-2008, 12:10 PM
I know Andy Van Slyke started at 22, but outside that, what if Stubbs career is similar? Roughly 10-12 alright years of good defense, 25-35 stolen bases, maybe a year or two of solid power,but usually in the mid to upper teens.

Is that so bad?

Sure everyone wants their CFers to be Junior circa 1994-8, but they all can't be superstars, what if he's just a solid major leaguer ho contributes to a winning team?

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 12:24 PM
And "a lot of people" weren't top 15 draft picks.

That puts him in the majors with a cup of coffee at 25 and full time at age 25 -- at the very earliest. When Chris Denorfia was on that timeline he was dismissed as a near non-prospect, despite his .900 OPS in AA and AAA at age 24.
Chris Denorfia was a top 100 prospect in baseball in some places and some were claiming him as the Reds top prospect over that time as well. The difference being, Denorfia was maxing out at his potential right then and there. Stubbs, not so much. I still think Stubbs is on pace to be a full time Major Leaguer before he turns 25. Spends half a season in AA this year, splits AAA/MLB next year.



It's pretty well established that players who make a big impact in the majors tend to reach the majors at an early age. That's not to say Stubbs isn't going to make or won't be a good player. However, you tell a team, any team, that their first round pick isn't going to be a major leaguer until age 26 and they're going to be a bit disappointed. The odds are against him, more so than they are against the typical first round pick.

Sure, but Stubbs is definitely going to be a major leaguer by the time he is 26.


I'm really excited about Stubbs ability and ceiling. But history suggests he's facing a steep uphill climb to realize it. I continue to fail to understand why you can't hold both perspectives, Doug.
I think I see a much different timeline than most do I guess. It seems most people have him on a 1 level per year timeline. I have him splitting A+/AA this year and then AAA/MLB next year. That puts him into the majors at 24 years old. Thats not old by any stretch. He is also a product of a system that takes serious caution with promoting their prospects. Chris Valaika was the Pioneer League MVP, had no real issues at the plate and was placed in Dayton for 3.5 months while just tearing the place up. No team in baseball outside of the Reds would have even started Stubbs in Dayton last year and his 'timeline' would have been quite a bit different. However he did play for the Reds, is a season behind where he likely would be in other systems and I just don't see how that falls on him (or guys like Valaika/Turner) for that matter.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 12:25 PM
I know Andy Van Slyke started at 22, but outside that, what if Stubbs career is similar? Roughly 10-12 alright years of good defense, 25-35 stolen bases, maybe a year or two of solid power,but usually in the mid to upper teens.

Is that so bad?

Sure everyone wants their CFers to be Junior circa 1994-8, but they all can't be superstars, what if he's just a solid major leaguer ho contributes to a winning team?

In reality, he will be a great pick. In the minds of most people, he will have been a failure because he wasn't insert so and so also drafted here.

TRF
05-08-2008, 12:41 PM
In reality, he will be a great pick. In the minds of most people, he will have been a failure because he wasn't insert so and so also drafted here.

Taking who the Reds SHOULD have drafted out of the equation, Go back 5-8 years and tell me how many guys Stubbs age when drafted, were a top 10 pick, started out in rookie ball and performed so badly, moved up to A ball, and performed poorly there too (yes, he did better in the second half) then went on to reach the major leagues before age 26? Leave out the pitchers.

I bet you could go back 20 years and see this is a small list.

I think we all get how special Bruce is, but Stubbs age, background (college pick, Big 12 school) indicates he should be at least knocking at the door of AAA. But all we get is the nebulous "he is a raw talent". Despite three years at a big 12 school, surrounded by the best equipment (better than most minor league teams he's been on thus far.) and playing on good fields. Now compare that to most HS picks. Yet Stubbs is raw because a scout said he's raw.

I think that so far in 2008, Stubbs got off to a really hot start, and he's now regressing to his norms, whatever they may actually be. I think his future is Brady Clark. That ain't bad, just not 1st round worthy.

RedsManRick
05-08-2008, 12:43 PM
I think your timeline is ridiculously optimistic for a guy who hasn't dominated despite being old for his level and who's primary skill problem is not one that tends to get better with time and increased level of competition. I guess time will tell. But if Stubbs OPS's over .800 in AA this year or in AAA next year, I'll happily buy you a beer.

Again, I think Stubbs could have a great major league career. But I can't begin to understand on what logical basis your projection rests.

Steve4192
05-08-2008, 01:00 PM
It's pretty well established that players who make a big impact in the majors tend to reach the majors at an early age.

That's not really true.

Making it in the bigs at a young age is a good indicator of whether a guy will have a long career, but there have been plenty of guys who have come up in their mid 20s and burned brightly for a short while. The Reds have one of the most famous examples of that phenomena in Chris Sabo. He didn't make it to the bigs until he was 26, but he was one of the best 3B in the NL for the next five years before his career fizzled out.

Heck, we've even seen guys like Matt Stairs & Geronimo Berroa come up in the late 20s and have a very successful (albeit short) run in the majors. In this day & age, late bloomers can have a ton of value as long as you don't make the mistake of signing them to big contract when he becomes eligible for free agency. Use 'em up while they are cheap and then deal 'em or let 'em walk when they start to earn real money.

If Drew Stubbs can provide the Reds with five good years on the cheap, and then get dealt for prospects before he hits the free agent market, I will be very happy.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 01:08 PM
I think your timeline is ridiculously optimistic for a guy who hasn't dominated despite being old for his level and who's primary skill problem is not one that tends to get better with time and increased level of competition. I guess time will tell. But if Stubbs OPS's over .800 in AA this year or in AAA next year, I'll happily buy you a beer.
Stubbs plays CF, he doesn't need to OPS over .800 to be valuable at all. And while he may appear to be old, he has actually been about league average in age at every level he is in. Stubbs has strikeout problems, but his strikeout rate has stayed nearly identical from Billings to Dayton to Sarasota. He went from 25.4% to 24.7% and is at 25.3% right now. Time will tell how that works, but his strikeouts have stayed the same at three different levels now.



Again, I think Stubbs could have a great major league career. But I can't begin to understand on what logical basis your projection rests.

Well, I figure they promote him to AA mid season and he finishes up there with about an .800 or so OPS. I figure that because he is hitting the ball with authority in the FSL right now and history has shown that a lot of guys hit better in Chattanooga than they do in Sarasota for the Reds. At that point I figure he starts the 2009 season in Louisville. The Reds don't exactly have a ton of outfielders heading to 2009 so he won't need much of an opening to get into the lineup.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-08-2008, 01:14 PM
I'd take Stubbs in CF over Corey Patterson right now.

In fact, Stubbs and Bruce over Patterson and Griffey would work fine with me.

flyer85
05-08-2008, 01:15 PM
Juan Pierre say hello

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 01:16 PM
Juan Pierre say hello

I didn't know he read these boards :D

Cooper
05-08-2008, 01:41 PM
I understand BABIP and LD% correlate. But is there a strong year to year correlation between BABIP +.110 (year 2007) and BABIP +.110 (year 2008)? I don't think there is. I understand what you report when you state there's a strong correlation between the 2,but a year to year correlation can be greatly impacted by luck.

Simply put: year to year correlations appear not to exist (babip+LD%). Meaning -he's heading for an adjustment (quite large i would imagine). It may not happen this year, but it will happen.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 01:44 PM
I understand BABIP and LD% correlate. But is there a strong year to year correlation between BABIP +.110 (year 2007) and BABIP +.110 (year 2008)? I don't think there is. I understand what you report when you state there's a strong correlation between the 2,but a year to year correlation can be greatly impacted by luck.

Simply put: year to year correlations appear not to exist (babip+LD%). Meaning -he's heading for an adjustment (quite large i would imagine). It may not happen this year, but it will happen.

As long as he keeps hitting line drives, with his speed, he is going to have a higher than average BABIP. Right now, he has a LD% over 30%. I doubt that continues for a full season, but on the bright side, it shows that he is hitting the ball squarely.

LoganBuck
05-08-2008, 01:54 PM
I'd take Stubbs in CF over Corey Patterson right now.


I had this very thought today.

membengal
05-08-2008, 02:23 PM
That's a rather interesting point. Stubbs may owe Patterson a debt of gratitude at some juncture, as we all may have OBP PTSD after watching him this season, and be grateful to whomever eventually steps in for him...

BuckeyeRedleg
05-08-2008, 02:30 PM
I'd like to see Stubbs promoted to Chattanooga soon and if he can OPS .750 to .800 over 250 PA's, I say give him every opportunity to be the Reds starting CF next April.

He may struggle initially with the bat, but as long as he provides solid defense, the bat will come around. Look at Pittsburgh with McLouth. He struggled somewhat in '06 (.678 OPS) and has had a steady rise since, all the while holding down the fort at a key defensive position.

SMcGavin
05-08-2008, 04:33 PM
I'd take Stubbs in CF over Corey Patterson right now.


Just because Corey Patterson is bad doesn't mean there aren't other people who would be worse.

RedsManRick
05-08-2008, 04:47 PM
You're right, Doug. Stubbs doesn't need to put up an .800 OPS in CF to be valuable. But a .750 OPS with a great glove makes him what? Chris Denorfia? Endy Chavez? Gary Matthews Jr.? David Dejesus? Mark Kotsay?

Are those the kinds of guys we should be getting excited about? That we should be happy we used a top 15 pick on?

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 04:52 PM
You're right, Doug. Stubbs doesn't need to put up an .800 OPS in CF to be valuable. But a .750 OPS with a great glove makes him what? Chris Denorfia? Endy Chavez? Gary Matthews Jr.? David Dejesus? Mark Kotsay?

Are those the kinds of guys we should be getting excited about? That we should be happy we used a top 15 pick on?
.750 OPS would make him league average CF with the bat and then his likely top 5 defense would make him an above average major league starter.... so yeah, I would say thats something worth being happy about using a top 10 pick on.

lollipopcurve
05-08-2008, 05:00 PM
Are those the kinds of guys we should be getting excited about? That we should be happy we used a top 15 pick on?

Lots of top 15 picks wash out. You want an all-star, but you usually don't get it.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-08-2008, 05:01 PM
Just because Corey Patterson is bad doesn't mean there aren't other people who would be worse.

I don't think he would do much worse and if he did there is room to grow whereas Patterson has hit his peak.

I mean, if all you had in the system at SS was Juan Castro and Paul Janish, would you split hairs if Janish took his place?

SMcGavin
05-08-2008, 05:06 PM
I don't think he would do much worse and if he did there is room to grow whereas Patterson has hit his peak.

I mean, if all you had in the system at SS was Juan Castro and Paul Janish, would you split hairs if Janish took his place?

No, because I think Janish actually could hit just as well as Castro (both of them would be horrendous). Patterson's hitting is not at the level of Castro. Patterson's career MLB OPS is .711, Stubbs last season in low A ball was at .785. Patterson is a poor MLB hitter, at this point in his development I think Stubbs would be horrendous. I also think Stubbs is more likely to reach his peak by playing at levels he can succeed at, because if he went to the bigs now his strikeout numbers would probably made Adam Dunn look like a contact hitting master.

TRF
05-08-2008, 05:07 PM
.750 OPS would make him league average CF with the bat and then his likely top 5 defense would make him an above average major league starter.... so yeah, I would say thats something worth being happy about using a top 10 pick on.
I think you are assuming alot. I think .750 is actually a reach, and a normal year for him will be .720-.750. Now that would be ok, as the bulk of his OPS will likely be OBP, but as you have stated, he's contact challenged and leadoff might not be his best spot. IMO it's his ticket to the majors as he has an average to decent OBP.

Another assumption is that his defense will be top 5 in MLB. Sorry, but I'm not ready to pronounce any guy in A ball the next KGJ in CF.

All that said, I am placing a self imposed Drew Stubbs ban on posting about the guy. At least until July. I want to see how he deals with this slump he's in right now. I think it will be very interesting to see how WJ handles his development. If Stubbs comes roaring back from this slump and they promote him to AA it will certainly increase his value. They may even promote him to give him a jumpstart at the ASB. But if he doesn't get promoted until late in the season, ugh.

SMcGavin
05-08-2008, 05:08 PM
.750 OPS would make him league average CF with the bat and then his likely top 5 defense would make him an above average major league starter.... so yeah, I would say thats something worth being happy about using a top 10 pick on.

Average starter OPS from CF is actually quite a bit higher than that, in 2006 it was .788.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/average-is-as-average-does/

medford
05-08-2008, 05:09 PM
You're right, Doug. Stubbs doesn't need to put up an .800 OPS in CF to be valuable. But a .750 OPS with a great glove makes him what? Chris Denorfia? Endy Chavez? Gary Matthews Jr.? David Dejesus? Mark Kotsay?

Are those the kinds of guys we should be getting excited about? That we should be happy we used a top 15 pick on?

I'd certainly take that over Chris Gruler, Ty Howington, David Espinoza, Brandon Larson, etc... If Stubbs puts up a .750 OPS w/ solid base running and ++ defense, then that is worthy of a top 15 pick.

Serious question, that I'm not sure can be answered, but maybe somebody can. If you were to go back in history and redraft each draft based upon what we ultimately know about how each pick would fair in the majors (ie Mike Piazza would certainly be a top 5 pick in a revisionist draft vs the 60 something rounder that he was), what would a top 15 pick look like? Are there ultimately 15 big name difference makers in the average draft? By big name difference makers, I'm thinking along the lines of a regular all-star type player, a junior, an utley, a ryan Howard, etc... I'm guessing no. So lets go beyong that, how many picks in an average draft make the majors and stick in a regular playing role for 8+ seasons the way Gary Matthews JR has/will? I'm guessing that number is not real high, put probably over 15 players a draft. So what does a top 15 pick really look like in revisionist history??

The reason I ask, is because I'm begining to think that many on here think that just because Stubbs/Devon were top 15 draft picks that they have to have an all-star type career, or something close to it to make the pick worthy, while I'm thinking that just having a Gary Matthews JR career might be closer to the norm.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-08-2008, 05:18 PM
No, because I think Janish actually could hit just as well as Castro (both of them would be horrendous). Patterson's hitting is not at the level of Castro. Patterson's career MLB OPS is .711, Stubbs last season in low A ball was at .785. Patterson is a poor MLB hitter, at this point in his development I think Stubbs would be horrendous. I also think Stubbs is more likely to reach his peak by playing at levels he can succeed at, because if he went to the bigs now his strikeout numbers would probably made Adam Dunn look like a contact hitting master.


What's your definition of horrendous? Like I said, McLouth put up a .687 in 2006. I could live with those offensive growing pains from Stubbs if his glove is equal to or greater than Patterson's.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 05:19 PM
I think you are assuming alot. I think .750 is actually a reach, and a normal year for him will be .720-.750. Now that would be ok, as the bulk of his OPS will likely be OBP, but as you have stated, he's contact challenged and leadoff might not be his best spot. IMO it's his ticket to the majors as he has an average to decent OBP.
Eh, I don't know about that. He might not be Mike Cameron with the power like some thought, but GABP turns guys into better sluggers. He will hit for some power and get on base at a decent clip. I don't care whether or not he is a leadoff hitter, that has nothing to do with his value.



Another assumption is that his defense will be top 5 in MLB. Sorry, but I'm not ready to pronounce any guy in A ball the next KGJ in CF.
Never seen him play have you? The guy is a legit GG contender in the actual sense of the award.



All that said, I am placing a self imposed Drew Stubbs ban on posting about the guy. At least until July. I want to see how he deals with this slump he's in right now. I think it will be very interesting to see how WJ handles his development. If Stubbs comes roaring back from this slump and they promote him to AA it will certainly increase his value. They may even promote him to give him a jumpstart at the ASB. But if he doesn't get promoted until late in the season, ugh.
You mean this week long slump where he has a 30% line drive rate, higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate than he had in April? Its called luck. He isn't doing anything differently from what he did in April except walk more.

RedsManRick
05-08-2008, 05:26 PM
Again, we're talking about the guy like he's going to make the majors, that he's going to OPS .750. As we've seen all too often, guys flame out all over the place. Doug, you talk about him moving up levels like it's nothing.

I won't claim to have an accurate sense of reality here, but my is that at best, you have a 50% chance of moving up a level and repeating your level of performance. Even if we give Stubbs his current level of performance AND a .750 OPS in AA, that puts him at a 25% of a .750 OPS in the majors.

I guess a 25% of getting Gary Matthews Jr doesn't get me terribly excited. Yes, I'm hopeful, but Stubbs is neither a virtual lock nor a huge ceiling guy. I would hope for at least one or the other with a top 10 pick.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 05:29 PM
Average starter OPS from CF is actually quite a bit higher than that, in 2006 it was .788.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/average-is-as-average-does/

I don't know all the numbers used to go into that, but I just had been going with every CF in baseball that had 300 AB's over the last two years. Here is what the average CF put up:

.275/.340/.434

So that is .774. Not quite .750.... not too far off. Still .750 OPS + above average defense in CF is a quality player.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 05:33 PM
Again, we're talking about the guy like he's going to make the majors, that he's going to OPS .750. As we've seen all too often, guys flame out all over the place. Doug, you talk about him moving up levels like it's nothing.

I won't claim to have an accurate sense of reality here, but my is that at best, you have a 50% chance of moving up a level and repeating your level of performance. Even if we give Stubbs his current level of performance AND a .750 OPS in AA, that puts him at a 25% of a .750 OPS in the majors.
We have seen in recent years that players going from Sarasota to Chattanooga and having their numbers improve for the most part.



I guess a 25% of getting Gary Matthews Jr doesn't get me terribly excited. Yes, I'm hopeful, but Stubbs is neither a virtual lock nor a huge ceiling guy. I would hope for at least one or the other with a top 10 pick.
Stubbs is indeed a high ceiling guy. His ceiling is a .295/.395/.500 type guy with gold glove defense in CF. That type of player doesn't show up often. While its not likely that he actually turns into that guy, that is certainly his ceiling and its in fact very high.

SMcGavin
05-08-2008, 05:33 PM
What's your definition of horrendous? Like I said, McLouth put up a .687 in 2006. I could live with those offensive growing pains from Stubbs if his glove is equal to or greater than Patterson's.

McLouth was more advanced than Stubbs at this age, McLouth had a .842 OPS in AA at age 22 and went .765 in AAA at age 23. His .687 OPS came at age 24, the year after he had a 100 AB cup of coffee. Stubbs is 23 and has never seen AA, and his numbers at lower levels aren't as good as McLouth's were in AA at that age.

I think Stubbs would be significantly worse than .687. I also think Patterson will be better than .687 (and I'm not a big Patterson fan by any means). I'm not trying to write off Stubbs, he could end up being something good, I just think right now he would be a disaster.

SMcGavin
05-08-2008, 05:36 PM
I don't know all the numbers used to go into that, but I just had been going with every CF in baseball that had 300 AB's over the last two years. Here is what the average CF put up:

.275/.340/.434

So that is .774. Not quite .750.... not too far off. Still .750 OPS + above average defense in CF is a quality player.

That's probably a good estimate, and .788 and .774 are pretty close. I agree that Stubbs at .750 OPS is useful. Maybe average. But to be above-average he'll need to get to .775 or so. If he gets to .800, and is above average in the field and at the plate, now that would be a really nice player to have around.

RedsManRick
05-08-2008, 05:47 PM
We have seen in recent years that players going from Sarasota to Chattanooga and having their numbers improve for the most part.


Stubbs is indeed a high ceiling guy. His ceiling is a .295/.395/.500 type guy with gold glove defense in CF. That type of player doesn't show up often. While its not likely that he actually turns into that guy, that is certainly his ceiling and its in fact very high.

I'm sorry, but there's no way he hits .295 while striking out in 25% of his PA and only slugging 500. Basically impossible. He needs to up his contact rate significantly or hit for Dunnesque power. Unless one of those things happens, he's got .250/.350/.450 upside, with numerous barriers to getting there. The real problem continues to be that you continue to emphasize the potential (and focus debate there) while discounting the conversation about his likelihood of reaching it.

Let's do it this way, what % chance do you think Stubbs has of putting up a peak of .775+ OPS with GG defense at the major league level. I think it's south of 10%. What number would you put on it?

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 06:03 PM
I'm sorry, but there's no way he hits .295 while striking out in 25% of his PA and only slugging 500. Basically impossible. He needs to up his contact rate significantly or hit for Dunnesque power. Unless one of those things happens, he's got .250/.350/.450 upside, with numerous barriers to getting there. The real problem continues to be that you continue to emphasize the potential (and focus debate there) while discounting the conversation about his likelihood of reaching it.
Its called an upside for a reason. You are also making an assumption that his contact rate does not improve from now until his best season. You mentioned his ceiling and I gave it to you. There was never a caveat that one had to have a very high chance of reaching said ceiling. Hardly any player reaches their ceiling.



Let's do it this way, what % chance do you think Stubbs has of putting up a peak of .775+ OPS with GG defense at the major league level. I think it's south of 10%. What number would you put on it?

A peak? Lets say thats just 1 season, I will say 50%. Given he gets to play in GABP we have a guy who has an isolated power in the FSL of .168 (Joey Votto's was .169 just as a reference point) with solid abilities to draw walks. So great power park + ability to get on base.... I would say the odds are decently good to get 1 season with a .775 OPS.

SMcGavin
05-08-2008, 06:36 PM
A peak? Lets say thats just 1 season, I will say 50%. Given he gets to play in GABP we have a guy who has an isolated power in the FSL of .168 (Joey Votto's was .169 just as a reference point) with solid abilities to draw walks. So great power park + ability to get on base.... I would say the odds are decently good to get 1 season with a .775 OPS.

Come on now... you are well aware that was the year Votto had to take the first pitch, his numbers that year in Sarasota are not at all indicative of the type of minor league career Joey Votto had. Also Joey was 21 that year. Trying to compare Stubbs' good month in Sarasota with that abberation from Votto's career is misleading, and you know the Reds minor league system well enough to know it was misleading when you posted it.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 06:38 PM
Come on now... you are well aware that was the year Votto had to take the first pitch, his numbers that year in Sarasota are not at all indicative of the type of minor league career Joey Votto had. Also Joey was 21 that year. Trying to compare Stubbs' good month in Sarasota with that abberation from Votto's career is misleading, and you know the Reds minor league system well enough to know it was misleading when you posted it.

I do know that Votto's struggles had to do with the first strike rule, but don't think that had much to do with his isolated power numbers. Last year in louisville his isolated power number was .184, all of 16 points higher than it was when he was in Sarasota. My point was that GABP takes guys with good power and make them have very good power, but it also takes guys with little power and turn them into guys with moderate power.

Highlifeman21
05-08-2008, 08:45 PM
At least thanks to Stubbs' age, he can buy beer for his teammates...

That's gotta count for something, in this topic.

fearofpopvol1
05-09-2008, 02:10 AM
I do think Stubbs will have every opportunity in the world to move quickly though the system if he can. I have to imagine the Reds would prefer to put him on a quicker timetable if possible.

With that said, Doug's timetable to me seems very optimistic and would be an absolute best case scenario.

With that said though, I'd like to see the Reds go ahead and move him to AA and see what happens. It may actually be a good thing for him and his development.

tbball10
05-09-2008, 10:08 AM
I do think Stubbs will have every opportunity in the world to move quickly though the system if he can. I have to imagine the Reds would prefer to put him on a quicker timetable if possible.

With that said, Doug's timetable to me seems very optimistic and would be an absolute best case scenario.

With that said though, I'd like to see the Reds go ahead and move him to AA and see what happens. It may actually be a good thing for him and his development.

Not that Stubbs does not have more potential than the OF in Chattanooga, but the Lookouts are getting nice production from their current outfielders. So who gets moved up or down when Stubbs is to be promoted: Henry, Gil, Cumberland, Strait or Szymanski... Also, they still have Dorn on the DL (does anyone know when he will be back?).

kaldaniels
05-09-2008, 10:30 AM
I think the age thing gets overblown. I mean sure, most players, if they are going to reach the bigs, do so before the age of 26. So, in a "statisical" sense it doesn't look good that he is in A ball at the age of 23. However...if Stubbs continues to progress and reach the bigs at 26 thats fine. The Reds will get minimum 6 years pre-FA production at which he will be 32. The key is that Stubbs continues to progress. The sooner he progresses the better...but if he takes his time doing so I won't hold it against him.

If Stubbs is able to contribute with the Reds for 6 years, regardless of age, I'll be happy. He's just gotta keep moving in the right direction.

Cooper
05-09-2008, 10:34 AM
Gil and Szymanski should be sitting....then Strait.

Not sure it's needed to promote/send down players. The environment between Chatt. and Sarsota aren't hugely different after you factor in league and park factors. The big jump is between Dayton and Sarasota.

Mario-Rijo
05-09-2008, 04:04 PM
To answer the main question of the post, yes I think it's quite possible that he is a bit too stubborn. I seem to recall that he wasn't all that thrilled with the idea of choking up in the 1st place or at the very least wasn't willing to give much of the credit for his then resurgence to the change. So too me it's a valid question that needs an answer(s) to figure out where he will eventually end up.

If he hasn't/doesn't stick to the change then I have little hope he will be anything more than a 5th OF type, or at the very least doesn't go back to it if he has/does drop the approach. If he does I still have hopes of him being a solid starter but to say he will be a star is at this point already been answered for me. I have seen him play albeit only a few times but I don't see an elite CF defender, an above avg one sure but when I think elite I think a young Kenny Lofton type and I don't see that in him. Of course I did see him when he was supposedly having the toe issue so that could be a factor I suppose.

Redman15
05-09-2008, 04:10 PM
Drew is having a rough time right now but I'm sure he will get back on track.
He made BA's NOT HOT list and they talked about him choking up last year.
He just needs to make an adjustment and get hot again.
Slumps are part of the game. Look at the big league guys like Dunn and Griff,
Phillips. It's still early enough to put up some good numbers for 2008.
Here is what BA had to say:

....................................NOT HOT........................................
ē Drew Stubbs, of, Reds. The middle of the order for Sarasota was pretty
devastating when it contained Chris Valaika, Juan Francisco and Stubbs.
But Valaika was called up, and Stubbs plummeted this week, collecting
just three hits in 24 at-bats, good for a line of .125/.250/.208. Stubbs
was frequently considered for this not-so-distinguishing honor in 2007,
but turned a corner when a "choke up" mandate was enforced in low
Class A Dayton. Maybe it's lack of protection in the orderóor maybe notó
but it was a pretty tough week for Stubbs.

dougdirt
05-09-2008, 04:47 PM
Stubbs 'slump' is nothing but bad luck. Higher walk rate than April so far in May, exact same line drive rate of 30% and a slightly lower strikeout rate. The only difference is his BABIP being .250+ points lower for absolutely no reason. Its sheer extremely small sample size at play. He is doing absolutely nothing different at the plate in May than he was in April but walking more, and thats a good thing.

Aronchis
05-09-2008, 04:55 PM
Stubbs 'slump' is nothing but bad luck. Higher walk rate than April so far in May, exact same line drive rate of 30% and a slightly lower strikeout rate. The only difference is his BABIP being .250+ points lower for absolutely no reason. Its sheer extremely small sample size at play. He is doing absolutely nothing different at the plate in May than he was in April but walking more, and thats a good thing.

Yep. Stubbs plate control is very good. His swing however, is far inferior from Jay Bruce's. I think Stubbs is struggling abit because pitchers adapt to him and his lack of good swing.

That said, he should be aggressively promoted as his offense is not what the Reds want.

11larkin11
05-09-2008, 05:03 PM
Not that Stubbs does not have more potential than the OF in Chattanooga, but the Lookouts are getting nice production from their current outfielders. So who gets moved up or down when Stubbs is to be promoted: Henry, Gil, Cumberland, Strait or Szymanski... Also, they still have Dorn on the DL (does anyone know when he will be back?).

Thats easy. Stubbs to AA, Cumberland to AAA, Bruce to Majors.

Redman15
05-09-2008, 05:06 PM
Bad luck + lack of hits = SLUMP. You can call it anything you want but the bottom line is it's a slump. Every player has one and Drew is not alone. Turner is in a slump .205 avg his last 10 games .Bad luck maybe. Rodriquez .118 last 10 games. Bottom line is slumps happen. Here is Drews last 10 games.

Last 10 Games: (Current team only)
Date OPP AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Apr 28 @DUN .600 5 2 3 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 0
Apr 30 TAM .000 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1
May 01 TAM .000 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
May 02 TAM .000 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
May 03 @PBC .000 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
May 04 @PBC .250 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
May 05 @PBC .333 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
May 06 @PBC .000 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 0
May 07 DAY .250 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
May 08 DAY .000 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Totals .167 36 4 6 2 0 1 3 5 11 1 2

dougdirt
05-09-2008, 05:17 PM
Yep. Stubbs plate control is very good. His swing however, is far inferior from Jay Bruce's. I think Stubbs is struggling abit because pitchers adapt to him and his lack of good swing.

That said, he should be aggressively promoted as his offense is not what the Reds want.

Everyone in the minor leagues swing is inferior to Jay Bruce's.... so thats a bad example. Stubbs swing itself doesn't have much of an issue.

Redsman15, yes its a slump.... my point was more that if he just continues doing what he has done it won't stay that way long. If he were having seriously different issues it would be one thing, but its just a slump because they aren't falling for him right now.

Redman15
05-09-2008, 05:29 PM
Doug I agree. When I was in Sarasota he was on every pitch. His swing looked pretty good to me. Baseball is a funny game and it all about making adjustments.
Drew just needs to tweak a little something and the hits will start coming.

Aronchis
05-09-2008, 05:32 PM
Everyone in the minor leagues swing is inferior to Jay Bruce's.... so thats a bad example. Stubbs swing itself doesn't have much of an issue.

Redsman15, yes its a slump.... my point was more that if he just continues doing what he has done it won't stay that way long. If he were having seriously different issues it would be one thing, but its just a slump because they aren't falling for him right now.

Doug, Stubbs swing compared to Bruce's isn't just inferior, it is WAY inferior. He is also signifigently inferior to Joey Votto's swing who probably is a better comp.

His swing is long and slow. He struggles to catch up to pitchers with heat and isn't the best against the curveball.

The point is, Stubbs isn't being recruited for his bat. He probably is better than Dickerson, but not by much.

RedsManRick
05-10-2008, 12:52 PM
Thats easy. Stubbs to AA, Cumberland to AAA, Bruce to Majors.

And who from the majors goes where?

mth123
05-10-2008, 01:46 PM
And who from the majors goes where?

Scott Hatteberg to wherever for whatever.

guttle11
05-10-2008, 02:57 PM
Scott Hatteberg to wherever for whatever.

Patterson DFA. I honestly think we're pretty close to seeing it.