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View Full Version : Garrett Atkins might be available



Benihana
05-07-2008, 04:02 PM
per Buster Olney and www.mlbtraderumors.com

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Olney Speculation: Atkins A Fit For Indians?
ESPN's Buster Olney makes a point to say that this trade idea is pure speculation rather than anything he's heard. Still worth discussing. Here it is:

If Colorado eventually turns the page on 2008, the Indians and the Rockies could match up well in a deal built around Garrett Atkins. The Rockies have a third baseman waiting in the wings, in Ian Stewart -- although he is not faring well so far -- and the Indians, as they look for ways to improve their offense, are flexible at first and third base.

Back in March, Ken Rosenthal suggested that Atkins was one player the Rox may not try to sign long-term. There were no talks in the 2007-08 offseason.

Atkins, 28, is a .274/.344/.446 career hitter away from Coors. Dismissing him as an average hitter is unfair - he's at .289/.363/.496 on the road since the start of the '06 season. Hard to say exactly where he'd settle in as an American Leaguer, but he'd probably be above average. Atkins' glovework does leave something to be desired though.

Atkins is under team control through the 2010 season. He could earn close to $20MM during his last two years of arbitration eligibility.

What would it take for the Indians to acquire Atkins? Adam Miller would be too much. Would Aaron Laffey and Josh Barfield be enough?

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If Adam Miller would be too much, then we wouldn't have to give up Homer Bailey. Looking at a similar return to Laffey and Barfield, would Chris Valaika and Matt Maloney be enough? I would do that in a second. With Jr. and Dunn presumably coming off the books, we could certainly afford to pay Atkins up to $20 MM through 2010. Move Encarnacion to LF, and now you have a team.

RedsManRick
05-07-2008, 04:24 PM
Arroyo?

Highlifeman21
05-07-2008, 04:38 PM
Arroyo?

The sad part is that Arroyo's only value would be as a throw in right now. If Arroyo is the centerpiece to any deal, don't expect much in the return.

Benihana
05-07-2008, 05:18 PM
I would guess that the Rox would be looking to rebuild rather than get a stopgap like Arroyo. However, it is no secret that they do like Josh Fogg. I'd hang onto Fogg for now (as you know they already like him), and maybe put together a package of Valaika/Maloney/Fogg in a month or two, or whenever you're ready to trade Jr./Dunn. Their bullpen is in shambles, so if they wanted one more piece, I'd offer them Todd Coffey or their pick of our lefty relievers in the minors (Pelland/Viola/Herrera). I'm assuming/hoping that by that point, Bill Bray would be back in Cincinnati.

Couple that move with dealing Roenicke to Anaheim for Reggie Willitis, which was suggested as their asking price on another thread, and all of a sudden through 2010 you're looking at:

CF Willitis
1B Votto
3B Atkins
RF Bruce
LF Encarnacion
2B Phillips
SS Keppinger
Catcher

SP Harang
SP Volquez
SP Cueto
SP Bailey
SP Thompson

while still hanging onto all five of your top 5 prospects (Bruce, Bailey, Thompson, Frazier, and Stubbs.) Not to mention, you'd still have Arroyo, Jr. and Dunn to potentially move for other pieces. Walt, please tell me you read RedsZone!

*BaseClogger*
05-07-2008, 08:40 PM
Home
.333/.395/.524
Away
.274/.344/.446

Benihana
05-07-2008, 10:44 PM
Home
.333/.395/.524
Away
.274/.344/.446

and??

you don't think GAB will help induce similar numbers?

Patrick Bateman
05-07-2008, 10:52 PM
and??

you don't think GAB will help induce similar numbers?

Relying on park inflation to make up a player's value isn't a very good idea. That's a very easy of overvaluing your own offensive talent (ie. was Hatteberg really an .850+ OPS guy that last few seasons?).


I'm not saying that Atkins would neccessarily be a poor target.... but with him on the verge of being expensive, I'm not sure how the series of transactions of replacing Dunn with Atkins a helpful idea. Either way, Atkins' numbers are inflated... and his true value is less than if you looked at his raw stats. GABP shouldn't be counted on as a way of increasing a player's value.... otherwise you have to do the same for every pitching target. The neutral numbers (provided a large enough sample size) are more indicitave. The defensive gain from this plan would be more than mitigated by the offensive loss between Dunn-Atkins.

BTW, I don't find the notion that you would be able to get Atkins for a collection of scraps a particularly realistic idea. If the Rockies choose to put Atkins on the market, they will be looking to add some young, impact talent... not spare parts.

*BaseClogger*
05-15-2008, 08:53 PM
Walt Jocketty's RH bat of the future might come from the Rockies:


Rockies Could Trade Holliday
In Ken Rosenthal's latest column, he sees Matt Holliday as a prime candidate to be traded this summer. Rosenthal notes that the Rockies are already ten games back and have very little chance of signing Holliday to an extension. Holliday is signed through '09 with $13MM due next season.

Previously, Rosenthal speculated that the Rockies might be willing to go to six years and $96MM to keep last year's NL MVP runner-up. However, all we know of Holliday's demands are that he wants more than a four-year deal. Rosenthal sees the Indians, Cardinals, Yankees, A's, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Mets as potential suitors. This should provide an interesting new storyline for July.

Rosenthal thinks that the Rockies could also seek to move Brian Fuentes and Garrett Atkins. Fuentes is eligible for free agency after this season and Atkins will be in his second year of arbitration eligibility and is not eligible for free agency until after next season.

Rosenthal also suggests that the Rockies may be willing to accept low-level, high-ceiling prospects in return as they are deep in prospects at Double and Triple A.

MLBTR

Dom Heffner
05-15-2008, 09:36 PM
Yes to Holliday, no way to Garrett Atkins.

*BaseClogger*
05-15-2008, 09:37 PM
Yes to Holliday, no way to Garrett Atkins.

why?

Dom Heffner
05-15-2008, 09:46 PM
Atkins is in decline, for one. He seems younger, but he's coming up on 30, no?

Secondly, he hasn't hit outside of Coors has he? Atkins at 29-30 would be less than Edwin coming into his prime.

Holliday also peaked last year, most likely, but he doesn't hit too poorly on the road, IIRC.

Though Atkins in GABP could be intriguing.

As well- you are going to have to pay Atkins for some good seasons that he is unlikely to replicate.

It's not like the 49ers getting OJ Simpson, but it's not like we would be getting him at 25, either.

jojo
05-15-2008, 09:53 PM
why?


Here's a comparison with their stats neutralized to 2007/NL/neutral park via BR.com:

Atkins
.298/.355/.475 OPS: .830

EE
.270/.348/.466 OPS: .814

EE is actually a significantly better defender.....

*BaseClogger*
05-15-2008, 09:55 PM
Atkins is in decline, for one. He seems younger, but he's coming up on 30, no?

Secondly, he hasn't hit outside of Coors has he? Atkins at 29-30 would be less than Edwin coming into his prime.

Holliday also peaked last year, most likely, but he doesn't hit too poorly on the road, IIRC.

Though Atkins in GABP could be intriguing.

As well- you are going to have to pay Atkins for some good seasons that he is unlikely to replicate.

It's not like the 49ers getting OJ Simpson, but it's not like we would be getting him at 25, either.

Holliday career (28 years old, '08 $9M '09 $13M)
overall: .319/.382/.554
home: .364/.426/.664
away: .274/.337/.445

Atkins career (29 years old, '08 $4.3875)
overall: .305/.370/.486
home: .333/.395/.524
away: .274/.344/.446

and Atkins plays 3B compared to LF...

Mods: Can we merge this thread with the Holliday thread?

*BaseClogger*
05-15-2008, 09:55 PM
Here's a comparison with their stats neutralized to 2007/NL/neutral park via BR.com:

Atkins
.298/.355/.475 OPS: .830

EE
.270/.348/.466 OPS: .814

EE is actually a significantly better defender.....

EE to LF after Dunn leaves (assuming Atkins can be re-signed)?