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Cyclone792
05-07-2008, 10:14 PM
Much is made of the out-making-machines that are seemingly finding their way in Dusty Baker's leadoff slot, including his desire to place speedy center fielders at the top of the order despite their abysmal abilities to reach base. With all that we've seen thus far this season, I figured I'd take a look at the history of one Dusty Baker and what type of performances he's garnered from the leadoff slot during his managerial career.

Dusty's first stop was in San Francisco, and he had some pretty good Giants teams throughout the 1990s and finally snagged an NL Pennant in 2002, though plugging one of the game's greatest sluggers in the middle of the order certainly didn't hurt him.

But what about that leadoff slot on-base percentage? Let's take a look:


Dusty Baker Managed Teams National League
AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB

1993 #1 707 178 44 6 1 .301 16.07 9464 2589 964 72 67 .343 9.82
1994 #1 467 121 56 4 1 .343 8.34 6720 1867 720 58 35 .351 9.33
1995 #1 627 163 43 9 1 .316 14.58 8467 2328 891 99 38 .349 9.50
1996 #1 677 165 75 6 2 .324 9.03 9576 2598 900 103 61 .338 10.64
1997 #1 670 171 87 4 5 .342 7.70 9458 2564 972 118 53 .345 9.73
1998 #1 673 200 102 5 4 .392 6.60 10872 2949 1050 143 49 .342 10.35
1999 #1 697 201 80 9 1 .368 8.71 11022 3082 1121 90 63 .349 9.83
2000 #1 688 175 82 10 3 .341 8.39 10927 3008 1158 102 72 .348 9.44
2001 #1 708 179 59 6 2 .315 12.00 10909 2918 940 143 54 .332 11.61
2002 #1 678 170 66 11 3 .326 10.27 10973 2936 928 109 56 .329 11.82

TOTAL 6592 1723 694 70 23 .337 9.50 98388 26839 9644 1037 548 .342 10.20

Things started out pretty lousy for Dusty and his leadoff on-base percentage, which isn't too terribly surprising. In three of Dusty's first four seasons, he had out-making-machines at the top of his order; only 1994 saw a respectable on-base percentage in the #1 slot, albeit that .343 clip still coming in below the league average of .351.

Here were the primary hitters Dusty used in the leadoff slot through 1996:

1993: Darren Lewis, center fielder
1994: Darren Lewis, center fielder
1995: Darren Lewis and Deion Sanders, both center fielders
1996: Marvin Benard, center fielder

Things started looking up for Dusty in 1997 though. Darryl Hamilton - a center fielder, of course - was his primary leadoff hitter, and while Hamilton had zero power, he gave the Giants a .354 on-base percentage in 529 plate appearances, all but 18 of those out of the leadoff slot. Then in 1998 both Hamilton and Marvin Benard shared the center field slot - and leadoff slot - and each clogged the bases up nicely with near .400 on-base percentages. Benard hung around for a bit and turned in a couple nice on-base percentages himself. Benard, however, washed up after a few seasons, which in turn meant Dusty's leadoff on-base percentage saw the ramifications.

Here were the primary hitters Dusty used in the leadoff slot from 1997 through 2002:

1997: Darryl Hamilton, center fielder
1998: Darryl Hamilton and Marvin Benard, both center fielders
1999: Marvin Benard, center fielder
2000: Marvin Benard and Calvin Murray, both center fielders
2001: Marvin Benard and Calvin Murray, both center fielders
2002: David Bell, third baseman (!); Kenny Lofton, center fielder; Tom Goodwin, 4th outfielder

In 2003, Dusty made his earth-shattering move to the dump known as Wrigley Field and reached the NLCS in 2003 before pissing off Cubs fans with his base clogging quotes and destruction of the pitching staff. As we all know, the Cubs fire Dusty after the 2006 season and the Reds hire him in 2008 for some ungodly reason.

Let's take a look at Dusty's on-base percentage since he joined the Cubs:


Dusty Baker Managed Teams National League
AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB

2003 #1 687 204 48 9 5 .348 14.31 10992 2969 948 134 54 .334 11.59
2004 #1 692 186 59 6 6 .329 11.73 11025 3017 929 125 66 .335 11.87
2005 #1 689 169 44 10 2 .299 15.66 10930 3020 931 128 60 .339 11.74
2006 #1 703 204 33 8 1 .329 21.30 11037 3026 954 141 59 .338 11.57
2008 #1 142 36 15 0 1 .323 9.47 2222 591 241 22 11 .342 9.22

TOTAL 2913 799 199 33 15 .326 14.64 46206 12623 4003 550 250 .337 11.54

Dusty brought both Kenny Lofton and Tom Goodwin with him to Chicago in 2003, and both saw time in ... you guessed it, center field and the leadoff slot. Dusty also used Mark Grudzielanek - a second baseman! - in the leadoff slot roughly half the season as well and overall the Cubs leadoff hitters fared very well in the on-base percentage department at .348.

But starting in 2004, Dusty seemingly lost his mind and has been unable to find it since. A .329 leadoff on-base percentage in 2004, a ridiculous .299 leadoff on-base percentage in 2005, another below average .329 clip in 2006, and so far with the Reds in 2008 Dusty has given us lots of Corey Patterson, lots of outs, and a collective .323 on-base percentage out of the leadoff slot, nearly 20 points below the NL average.

Once again, the list of Dusty leadoff hitters:

2003: Mark Grudzielanek, second baseman (!); Kenny Lofton, center fielder; Tom Goodwin, 4th outfielder
2004: Corey Patterson, center fielder; Todd Walker, second baseman (!); Mark Grudzielanek, second baseman (!)
2005: Jerry Hairston, center fielder and second baseman (!); Corey Patterson, center fielder; Neifi Perez, shortstop
2006: Juan Pierre, center fielder
2008: Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel, both center fielders

Speaking of Dusty losing his mind since the beginning of the 2004 season, here's his collective leadoff statistics since the beginning of that 2004 season:


Dusty Baker Managed Teams National League
AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB

2004 #1 692 186 59 6 6 .329 11.73 11025 3017 929 125 66 .335 11.87
2005 #1 689 169 44 10 2 .299 15.66 10930 3020 931 128 60 .339 11.74
2006 #1 703 204 33 8 1 .329 21.30 11037 3026 954 141 59 .338 11.57
2008 #1 142 36 15 0 1 .323 9.47 2222 591 241 22 11 .342 9.22

TOTAL 2226 595 151 24 10 .319 14.74 35214 9654 3055 416 196 .338 11.53

Look at that impressive recent stretch of managerial expertise. I see that collective .319 on-base percentage and a crumbling walk rate in Dusty Baker's leadoff slot since 2004, and I see a wizard at work. Baker's leadoff on-base percentages since 2004 are nearly 20 points below the National League average, and the walk rates of his leadoff hitters are 28 percent worse than the National League average.

Swing often, swing early, make outs, don't clog the bases; it's the Dusty Baker way.

Finally, here is Dusty's career as a whole:


Dusty Baker Managed Teams National League
AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB

1993 #1 707 178 44 6 1 .301 16.07 9464 2589 964 72 67 .343 9.82
1994 #1 467 121 56 4 1 .343 8.34 6720 1867 720 58 35 .351 9.33
1995 #1 627 163 43 9 1 .316 14.58 8467 2328 891 99 38 .349 9.50
1996 #1 677 165 75 6 2 .324 9.03 9576 2598 900 103 61 .338 10.64
1997 #1 670 171 87 4 5 .342 7.70 9458 2564 972 118 53 .345 9.73
1998 #1 673 200 102 5 4 .392 6.60 10872 2949 1050 143 49 .342 10.35
1999 #1 697 201 80 9 1 .368 8.71 11022 3082 1121 90 63 .349 9.83
2000 #1 688 175 82 10 3 .341 8.39 10927 3008 1158 102 72 .348 9.44
2001 #1 708 179 59 6 2 .315 12.00 10909 2918 940 143 54 .332 11.61
2002 #1 678 170 66 11 3 .326 10.27 10973 2936 928 109 56 .329 11.82
2003 #1 687 204 48 9 5 .348 14.31 10992 2969 948 134 54 .334 11.59
2004 #1 692 186 59 6 6 .329 11.73 11025 3017 929 125 66 .335 11.87
2005 #1 689 169 44 10 2 .299 15.66 10930 3020 931 128 60 .339 11.74
2006 #1 703 204 33 8 1 .329 21.30 11037 3026 954 141 59 .338 11.57
2008 #1 142 36 15 0 1 .323 9.47 2222 591 241 22 11 .342 9.22

TOTAL 9505 2522 893 103 38 .334 10.64 144594 39462 13647 1587 798 .341 10.60

Over 10,000 plate appearances over 15 seasons do not lie; the man simply doesn't seem to care about his leadoff hitter reaching base safely. Dusty's leadoff hitters have combined for a .334 on-base percentage while the National League average is a full seven points higher at .341. In fact, with this being Dusty's 15th season, his teams have only managed to post an above average on-base percentage in the leadoff slot only three times: 1998, 1999, and 2003. And so far it doesn't look like the 2008 Reds are going to join that tiny list.

Somebody please make it stop!

WMR
05-07-2008, 10:19 PM
Nice work, cyclone.

:clap:

Ltlabner
05-07-2008, 10:20 PM
And here I thought my dislike of Dusty was misguided after being told so many times that all the bad things we heard were just myths.

GAC
05-07-2008, 10:21 PM
It's just not in the leadoff spot though where he seems to keep out making machines. Look at his current #2 and #3 spots. ;)

SMcGavin
05-07-2008, 10:23 PM
Nice post. It's pretty amazing how consistently bad Dusty's leadoff guys have been when you consider he actually had some pretty good teams. I guess Barry Bonds solves a lot of offensive problems.

Regarding the centerfielder fetish, I wonder if Bruce gets that leadoff spot if he eventually takes over CF?

*BaseClogger*
05-07-2008, 10:24 PM
Cyclone, I know it would exhaustive and unrealistic, but I don't think much can be drawn without looking at what Dusty's alternatives were--he doesn't assemble the rosters. And I'm not a Dusty defender by a LONG shot...

Highlifeman21
05-07-2008, 10:26 PM
Who would have ever thought Darryl Hamilton and Marvin Bernard would skew the numbers in a positive way?

Kc61
05-07-2008, 10:33 PM
Bottom line -- Reds need a better lead off hitter. It is one of their major needs. OBP is obviously part of it.

Right now, don't think Dusty really has a great option in that spot.

redsrule2500
05-07-2008, 10:40 PM
great post. scary post, too.

Cyclone792
05-07-2008, 10:49 PM
Cyclone, I know it would exhaustive and unrealistic, but I don't think much can be drawn without looking at what Dusty's alternatives were--he doesn't assemble the rosters. And I'm not a Dusty defender by a LONG shot...

For the most part during Dusty's career, the only time he has ever placed a solid on-base percentage at the top of the order is when his center fielder magically had a solid on-base percentage.

My favorite example is 1993, Dusty's first year managing. Here's the Giants' OBPs:

Bonds, .458
Thompson, .375
Clarke, .367
McGee, .353
Manwaring, .345
Clayton, .331
Williams, .325
Lewis, .302

Who did Dusty bat leadoff? Why Darren Lewis, of course. The Giants had a leadoff OBP that season of .301. Heck, that was 13 points lower than what they had in the 8-hole with a .314 OBP. And in the 7-hole the team posted a .339 OBP.

It's pretty funny, especially when considering that the Giants lost the division by only one game to the Braves.

IslandRed
05-07-2008, 10:49 PM
What it says is, a GM who has Dusty Baker for a manager would behoove himself to find a center fielder with OBP chops, since that guy has a 95% chance of being the leadoff hitter.

*BaseClogger*
05-07-2008, 10:54 PM
For the most part during Dusty's career, the only time he has ever placed a solid on-base percentage at the top of the order is when his center fielder magically had a solid on-base percentage.

My favorite example is 1993, Dusty's first year managing. Here's the Giants' OBPs:

Bonds, .458
Thompson, .375
Clarke, .367
McGee, .353
Manwaring, .345
Clayton, .331
Williams, .325
Lewis, .302

Who did Dusty bat leadoff? Why Darren Lewis, of course. The Giants had a leadoff OBP that season of .301. Heck, that was 13 points lower than what they had in the 8-hole with a .314 OBP. And in the 7-hole the team posted a .339 OBP.

It's pretty funny, especially when considering that the Giants lost the division by only one game to the Braves.

Okay, no defending that! :D Dusty is doing something very wrong when EVERY other spot in the order has a higher OBP than leadoff...

WMR
05-08-2008, 12:02 AM
What it says is, a GM who has Dusty Baker for a manager would behoove himself to find a center fielder with OBP chops, since that guy has a 95% chance of being the leadoff hitter.

Or be a GM who has got the balls to read Dusty the riot act when he starts pulling this stupid :censored:.

KronoRed
05-08-2008, 02:03 AM
Thanks Cyclone, I'm afraid now.

dougdirt
05-08-2008, 02:24 AM
Thanks Cyclone, I'm afraid now.

Now?

What took you so long?

KronoRed
05-08-2008, 03:24 AM
Now?

What took you so long?

I was in fear, now it's more of a terror.

Cyclone792
05-08-2008, 09:19 AM
I was in fear, now it's more of a terror.

I knew Dusty had the center field leadoff fetish with the Cubs, but I wasn't prepared for how it stretched all the way back to the beginning of his Giants days. In the late 90s, Marvin Benard had a short time period where he actually was a solid leadoff option so that made sense. Unfortunately those couple good years turned out to be mere coincidence; Dusty and the Giants had a solid leadoff option only because their center fielder actually qualified as a solid leadoff option.

The more I see of Dusty Baker, the more I believe his positive reputations (i.e. player's manager, proven manager, etc.) aren't much more than a product of being able to handle Barry Bonds. Dusty and Bonds got along well enough to make it work for a decade, and Bonds gave him a decade of lethal all-time great production. Take Bonds away from Dusty, or if Bonds and Dusty clashed, and I believe there's a real chance that Dusty would have just been another no-name manager who appeared and disappeared in a flash.

Spring~Fields
05-08-2008, 09:36 AM
Or be a GM who has got the balls to read Dusty the riot act when he starts pulling this stupid :censored:.

The gm wouldn’t even have to be heavy handed, unless the manager was non-responsive. The gm just needs to have a frank and direct discussion with the manager and compel the compulsory correction. Give him the “we want to go in a different direction, here’s is what we are going to do, and Dusty you’re the right man for the job to make it work“, speech. Until they can acquire better pieces to the puzzle.

Spring~Fields
05-08-2008, 09:39 AM
I knew Dusty had the center field leadoff fetish with the Cubs, but I wasn't prepared for how it stretched all the way back to the beginning of his Giants days.

I wonder if the manager has some superstition. I am reaching, he drives me nuts. ;)

I never reviewed, recorded so many stats in my life until Dusty became my obsession.

M2
05-08-2008, 11:52 AM
What it says is, a GM who has Dusty Baker for a manager would behoove himself to find a center fielder with OBP chops, since that guy has a 95% chance of being the leadoff hitter.

Bingo.

If CF hits leadoff (and with Dusty that's Plans A, B and C), then get a CF who can hit leadoff.

Far East
05-08-2008, 11:53 AM
Finally, here is Dusty's career as a whole:


Dusty Baker Managed Teams National League
AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB

1993 #1 707 178 44 6 1 .301 16.07 9464 2589 964 72 67 .343 9.82
1994 #1 467 121 56 4 1 .343 8.34 6720 1867 720 58 35 .351 9.33
1995 #1 627 163 43 9 1 .316 14.58 8467 2328 891 99 38 .349 9.50
1996 #1 677 165 75 6 2 .324 9.03 9576 2598 900 103 61 .338 10.64
1997 #1 670 171 87 4 5 .342 7.70 9458 2564 972 118 53 .345 9.73
1998 #1 673 200 102 5 4 .392 6.60 10872 2949 1050 143 49 .342 10.35
1999 #1 697 201 80 9 1 .368 8.71 11022 3082 1121 90 63 .349 9.83
2000 #1 688 175 82 10 3 .341 8.39 10927 3008 1158 102 72 .348 9.44
2001 #1 708 179 59 6 2 .315 12.00 10909 2918 940 143 54 .332 11.61
2002 #1 678 170 66 11 3 .326 10.27 10973 2936 928 109 56 .329 11.82
2003 #1 687 204 48 9 5 .348 14.31 10992 2969 948 134 54 .334 11.59
2004 #1 692 186 59 6 6 .329 11.73 11025 3017 929 125 66 .335 11.87
2005 #1 689 169 44 10 2 .299 15.66 10930 3020 931 128 60 .339 11.74
2006 #1 703 204 33 8 1 .329 21.30 11037 3026 954 141 59 .338 11.57
2008 #1 142 36 15 0 1 .323 9.47 2222 591 241 22 11 .342 9.22

TOTAL 9505 2522 893 103 38 .334 10.64 144594 39462 13647 1587 798 .341 10.60

Over 10,000 plate appearances over 15 seasons do not lie; the man simply doesn't seem to care about his leadoff hitter reaching base safely. Dusty's leadoff hitters have combined for a .334 on-base percentage while the National League average is a full seven points higher at .341. In fact, with this being Dusty's 15th season, his teams have only managed to post an above average on-base percentage in the leadoff slot only three times: 1998, 1999, and 2003. And so far it doesn't look like the 2008 Reds are going to join that tiny list.

Somebody please make it stop!

Two questions from a novice at looking at on base percentage:

(1) Is a .341 OBP (league average) significantly (mathematically or baseball-wise) better than a .334 one (Dusty's)? I intuitively feel that if they were batting averages -- instead of OBP -- they might be considered virtually the same.

(2) If the .341 is significantly better than the .334, then how -- if possible -- can someone (like the "insiders" on this forum) get that message to Dusty? I enjoy the board's discussion about lead-off OBP, but it's the manager who needs to be reached to "make it stop!"

membengal
05-08-2008, 12:16 PM
Your research, Cyclone. It makes me sad.

Cyclone792
05-08-2008, 12:45 PM
Two questions from a novice at looking at on base percentage:

(1) Is a .341 OBP (league average) significantly (mathematically or baseball-wise) better than a .334 one (Dusty's)? I intuitively feel that if they were batting averages -- instead of OBP -- they might be considered virtually the same.

(2) If the .341 is significantly better than the .334, then how -- if possible -- can someone (like the "insiders" on this forum) get that message to Dusty? I enjoy the board's discussion about lead-off OBP, but it's the manager who needs to be reached to "make it stop!"

I wouldn't call the difference between a .334 on-base percentage and a .341 on-base percentage significantly different, but probably large enough to take notice. Dusty's leadoff slots have averaged around 740 or so plate appearances each year. Increasing an on-base percentage from .334 to .341 would turn six outs into six new baserunners on average each season, which would translate to a couple runs.

The real underlying problem is Dusty's lack of regard for a leadoff hitter's ability to get on base. It's because of this that he's had full seasons such as 1993, 1995, 1996, 2001, and 2005 where Dusty's team have leadoff on-base percentages have been 10, 20, sometimes even 40 points lower than the league average which was the case in 1993 and 2005. That's when the significant damage is done, because now we're talking a loss of a couple dozen baserunners in the leadoff slot rather than a half dozen.

This is why I mentioned Dusty's 1993 Giants; if Dusty was actually smart and put a good on-base hitter at the top of that lineup, then it's likely the Giants could have eeked one or two more wins and may have snagged that division title/playoff spot. But Dusty put an out machine at the top, the Giants lost by one lousy game, and well ... that's what Dusty deserved for that decision.

The Reds right now, including yesterday's game, have a .319 on-base percentage in the leadoff slot compared to the NL league average of .340. That's just plain unacceptable right there, and the more Corey Patterson plays, the larger that discrepancy is likely to become.

RedsManRick
05-08-2008, 12:46 PM
I maintain that Dusty organizes his thoughts based on anecdotes rather than systems. His treatment of his leadoff man is really a pretty good microcosm for Dusty's general philosophical approach. He's extremely influenced by personal experience. I think this serves him well in many facets of his job, but when it comes to something driven by the law of large numbers, he gets lost.

One of my personal methods of judging the quality of a manager (not just in baseball) is their willingness to accept their own fallibility and constantly seek personal improvement, ultimately for the betterment of the organization.

He can't see the forest for the trees and his thinking is dominated by a bunch of classic biases. We're all subject to them to a degree, but Dusty more so than most. I get the sense that, more or less, Dusty believes what he believes and is averse to introspection. Here are some of the biases I see from Dusty particularly often.

Anchoring — the tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on a past reference or on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.
Base rate fallacy — ignoring available statistical data in favor of particulars
Confirmation bias — the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions
Hyperbolic discounting — the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are
Illusion of control — the tendency for human beings to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes that they clearly cannot
Illusory correlation — beliefs that inaccurately suppose a relationship between a certain type of action and an effect

Cyclone, do you have the team OBP numbers handy. I'd be interested to see the difference between his leadoff man and his team's average OBP -- perhaps omitting the top and bottom OBP from each team's average to account for outliers...

Cyclone792
05-08-2008, 01:02 PM
Cyclone, do you have the team OBP numbers handy. I'd be interested to see the difference between his leadoff man and his team's average OBP -- perhaps omitting the top and bottom OBP from each team's average to account for outliers...

The stuff I posted yesterday is at home, but here's a quick look at Dusty's team on-base percentages if you wanted to run a quick comparison:

1993: .338
1994: .313
1995: .317
1996: .328
1997: .336
1998: .352
1999: .352
2000: .362
2001: .342
2002: .344
2003: .323
2004: .328
2005: .324
2006: .319
2008: .321

The rough average of Dusty's team on-base percentages is about .334; it may be off by a point or two since I just quickly averaged the figures above rather than summing the total data.

The first thing people may state is "well, Dusty's team on-base percentages weren't very great either." Then again, that's possibly an even bigger indictment of Dusty and on-base percentage as a whole. If Dusty's team on-base percentages are always underperforming relative to the league, then what could that say about his ability to actually play his best players (especially if one took Bonds out of the equation)? And if Dusty has some influence on the roster itself, then that's another animal to deal with.

IslandRed
05-08-2008, 04:13 PM
Or be a GM who has got the balls to read Dusty the riot act when he starts pulling this stupid :censored:.

Reading the riot act only works if you're prepared to back it up. At this point, I think finding a center fielder who doesn't need a map to locate first base would be a lot easier than changing Dusty's behavior or convincing Castellini to eat Dusty's contract after six whole weeks on the job.

GAC
05-08-2008, 09:16 PM
Bottom line -- Reds need a better lead off hitter. It is one of their major needs. OBP is obviously part of it.

Right now, don't think Dusty really has a great option in that spot.

But he does have better options then the ones he has currently been using though. Yet he seems to ignore (or downplay) the OB% aspect in those top slots. If you're going to bat guys with SLG% in the 4 and 5 slots, like a Votto or EE, then put guys in the slots ahead of them that have a high percentage of getting on base.

At least try to properly utilize (get the most out of) what you have.

Cyclone792
05-23-2008, 09:10 AM
Update through games of May 22nd: The Reds leadoff on-base percentage has dropped all the way down to .315.

Corey Patterson - aka Mr. On-Base Percentage - does an amazing job getting the offense rolling with his .262 on-base percentage. His on-base percentage out of the #1 slot is even lower at .256. How about leading off games? Corey's sitting pretty at .280. What about leading off individual innings? Corey's going to win the MVP at .232 there.

And as if it doesn't get any worse, the Reds are also sporting a .310 on-base percentage out of the two-hole.

That's a .313 combined on-base percentage in the first two slots in the batting order. The league average on-base percentage out of the first two slots combined is .334 right now. It's only May 22nd - not even a third of the way through the season - but Dusty's Reds are already -10 baserunners compared to the just the league average from the first two slots.

Keep showing us the grand wisdom, Dusty.

dabvu2498
05-23-2008, 09:22 AM
Throw in the #3 hole while you're at it. Reds : .330 OBP, league average: .367.

As an aside, -10 baserunners. Assuming all of them scored, we're still looking at a -23 run differential.

Not disagreeing that Dusty's lineups aren't bad, but there's alot more to this team's issues than they order in which they hit.

919191
05-23-2008, 09:30 AM
From John Fay



FREEL IN, PATTERSON OUT: Ryan Freel was in center field and hitting leadoff Thursday night.

Baker said Freel probably will start the next two games as well. The Padres are starting left-handers in the first three games of the series.

"Corey (Patterson) hits some of those lefties pretty good," Baker said. "But he's just not swinging good or getting on base."


Dusty must have seen this on RZ.

bucksfan2
05-23-2008, 09:33 AM
I think Patterson is a big problem on this team. I also think this team has a disfunctional Owner-GM-Manager relationship. I think Castellini wanted Baker and is willing to give him free reign and give him what he wants. I also think that the GM's know better but Dusty can go right over their heads to the boss. From the stories that we have heard Dusty wanted Patterson and Castellini went to Krivsky and said get him. I really think Dusty is blinded by Patterson's potential and overlooks his actual production.

One other thing with Patterson the players have to notice. I am not advocating Freel as a CF but I am sure there probably aren't more than 2 people (Baker and Patterson) in the entire dugout that think Patterson gives them a better opportunity to win that Freel. Does this lead to a "screw it im getting mine" type of attitude that has plagued this organization for a decade? Players want to win. They want to be given the best shot to win. With the people that Dusty playes is he giving the reds the best shot to win?

PuffyPig
05-23-2008, 09:36 AM
.341 is better than .334, but not by much.

Baker seems to like fast guys at the top of the lineup.

If my choices were a speed burner with a .334 OBA vs. an average guy with a .341 OBA, I'd take the faster guy every time.

I won't mind seeing the SB totals of the average guy vs.Baker's lineup and see if Baker is sacrificing a few hits at the expense of better speed production.

Cyclone792
05-23-2008, 09:38 AM
Throw in the #3 hole while you're at it. Reds : .330 OBP, league average: .367.

As an aside, -10 baserunners. Assuming all of them scored, we're still looking at a -23 run differential.

Not disagreeing that Dusty's lineups aren't bad, but there's alot more to this team's issues than they order in which they hit.

Combined on-base percentage from lineup slots 1-3 for the Reds: .318. The National League? A mere .345.

That's -17 baserunners from slots 1-3.

You're right that team has plenty more issues than lineup stuff - it's been that way for eight years now - but this is just basic stuff right here.


I think Patterson is a big problem on this team. I also think this team has a disfunctional Owner-GM-Manager relationship. I think Castellini wanted Baker and is willing to give him free reign and give him what he wants. I also think that the GM's know better but Dusty can go right over their heads to the boss. From the stories that we have heard Dusty wanted Patterson and Castellini went to Krivsky and said get him. I really think Dusty is blinded by Patterson's potential and overlooks his actual production.

One other thing with Patterson the players have to notice. I am not advocating Freel as a CF but I am sure there probably aren't more than 2 people (Baker and Patterson) in the entire dugout that think Patterson gives them a better opportunity to win that Freel. Does this lead to a "screw it im getting mine" type of attitude that has plagued this organization for a decade? Players want to win. They want to be given the best shot to win. With the people that Dusty playes is he giving the reds the best shot to win?

Patterson just clearly has to get kicked to the curb. Griffey's obviously the big elephant in the room nobody can move until this season concludes, but Patterson is merely the pesky fly. Smash him with a fly-swatter, fling him out to the curb and move on.

Far East
05-23-2008, 10:54 AM
...I won't mind seeing the SB totals of the average guy vs.Baker's lineup and see if Baker is sacrificing a few hits at the expense of better speed production.
Reds: 31 SB and 15 CS = 67.39%
Other NL Teams: 445 SB and 158 CS = 73.80%

Are those the stats that you were looking for?

bucksfan2
05-23-2008, 11:00 AM
Reds: 31 SB and 15 CS = 67.39%
Other NL Teams: 445 SB and 158 CS = 73.80%

Are those the stats that you were looking for?

Take Freel out of the equation and what kind of stats do you get?

Far East
05-23-2008, 11:29 AM
Take Freel out of the equation and what kind of stats do you get?
Reds other than Freel: 26 SB and 11 CS = 70.27%

Chip R
05-23-2008, 11:32 AM
Maybe it's a blessing Dunn doesn't bat 2nd or 3rd. It's not like guys would be getting on for him.

CrackerJack
05-23-2008, 11:50 AM
Dusty the dinosaur.

mbgrayson
05-23-2008, 12:32 PM
To me, the lead off problem is a part of Dusty's overall failure to understand the link between OBP and scoring runs.

Last October, I posted the following notes in the original Dusty Baker poll thread, and they are applicable here:


Baker's philosphy on walks/OBP from a 2004 Cubs Chronicle blog posting:

Quote:
Dusty Baker on Walks
Filed under: Coaching Staff— steffens @ 10:24 pm Edit This
There’s nothing to be surprised about, but here’s Dusty Baker ruminating about why the Cubs haven’t taken many bases on balls yet this spring, as quoted by MLB.com:


“No. 1, I’ve let most guys hit 3-0 (in the count). That’s one reason. . . . I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run.”

Are singles then overrated unless you can run?

More Baker:

“Who have been the champions the last seven, eight years? Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? . . . Walks help. They do help. But you aren’t going to walk across the plate, you’re going to hit across the plate. That’s the school I come from.”

Mr. Baker, meet Google, which turns up this AP article from 2002, which quotes Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman as saying: “It’s just practical. If you want to score runs, you need to get guys on base. The best way to measure that is on-base percentage, because batting average can be very deceiving.”

There’s also this small fact: Over the last eight years, the Yankees have finished 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 1st, and 2nd in OBP% in the American League.

It’s one thing to say that’s not the school you came from. It’s another to say that’s not the school anyone else came from either.

And finally:

“Everybody can’t hit with two strikes, everybody can’t walk,” Baker said. “You’re taking away some of the aggressiveness of a kid if you’re telling him to go up there and try to work for a walk. . . . It’s like when I see kids in Little League and they make the small kids go up there and try to get a walk. That’s not any fun. . . . Do you ever see the top 10 walking (rankings)? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk, but the name of the game is to hit.”

Or this one from the Nov. 2006 from the Chicago Sun-Times:

Quote:
On-base percentage had been overlooked by the Cubs during the Dusty Baker era, but it should become a key weapon under new hitting coach Gerald Perry........The Cubs had a .319 on-base percentage last season, putting them last in the National League and ahead of only the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (.314) in the majors.
__________________

Cyclone792
06-19-2009, 12:45 PM
Well, teh Dusty has been managing the Reds for nearly a season and a half now. Let's take a look and see just how much on-base percentage he's placed at the top of the Reds' lineup since becoming manager last season. In fact, let's not just strictly look at the leadoff slot, but let's expand it to leadoff and the second hitter in the lineup:


Dusty Baker, Cincinnati Reds
AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB

2008 #1 681 181 57 6 5 .326 13.28
2008 #2 681 177 43 3 4 .305 17.28
2009 #1 277 62 17 2 3 .271 18.00
2009 #2 259 58 25 3 4 .296 11.84

TOTAL 1898 478 142 14 16 .306 14.58


I must say, that's pretty impressive work for teh Dusty right there. Since taking over the Reds prior to last season, teh Dusty has led them to a combined .306 on-base percentage out of the leadoff and number two slots in the batting order.

If you want to break it out by leadoff and 2-hole slot, the OBPs are as follows:

2008-09 leadoff OBP: .310
2008-09 2-hole OBP: .302

Keep on clogging those bases, Dusty.

Now how about the National League since the beginning of last season?


National League
AB H BB HBP SF OBP PA/BB

2008 #1 10925 2994 1081 85 64 .342 11.31
2008 #2 10765 2993 923 81 54 .338 12.94
2009 #1 4485 1177 388 32 24 .324 12.80
2009 #2 4256 1168 425 55 44 .345 11.37

TOTAL 30431 8332 2817 253 186 .338 11.96
Let's break it up by leadoff and two-hole:

2008-09 leadoff OBP: .337
2008-09 2-hole OBP: .340

The Reds are 27 points below the league on-base percentage for leadoff hitters since the beginning of 2008, and they're a whopping 38 points below the league on-base percentage for 2-hole hitters since the beginning of 2008.

And lastly, with the Reds posting a .306 combined on-base percentage from the leadoff and 2-hole slot, that puts them 32 points behind the NL average at .338 during that same time span.

LincolnparkRed
06-19-2009, 12:51 PM
So this thread makes me sad for my favorite team. Teh Dust is supposed to be pouring over stats between games, seems like he is looking at the wrong ones dude.

Cyclone792
07-31-2009, 09:00 AM
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/07/30/dusty-roads/


Part of me just has to admire the sheer chutzpah* of Dusty Baker. I’m not kidding. We all know that Dusty has over the years become the very essence of old-school baseball — and all that those words represent.

*What a great word — chutzpah.

We all know about Dusty’s famous, “Clogging up the bases isn’t that great to me,” statement when he was trying to make the point that he wasn’t too crazy about on-base percentage. We all know that in 2003 and 2004, he had the comically awful Neifi Perez, with his .281 on-base percentage, either lead off or hit second in the lineup 65 times. And he has made numerous odd and not entirely rational statements through the years.

Still, it’s this latest bit of Dusty magic that has me nodding my head in admiration. Seven times this year — and twice in the last week — Dusty Baker has led off his lineup with center fielder Willy Taveras and followed him, in the No. 2 spot, with shortstop Alex Gonzalez.

There’s something awe inspiring about it. In case you are wondering what’s so special about this, well, Willy Taveras has a .279 on-base percentage this year. In case you are wondering, that’s the second worst on-base percentage in baseball (350 or more plate appearances), the worst being the always enjoyable Bengie Molina. Dusty is leading off with a player who makes outs 72 percent of the time he comes to the plate. His OPS+ is 49.

And then … he moves right to Alex Gonzalez who, almost unbelievably, is much worse. Gonzalez’s on-base percentage is .250 and that’s really not out-of-line with his career numbers (.293 lifetime on-base percentage, and he had a .229 on-base percentage in 2003 with the Marlins). He has no power, no speed and he has walked 11 times all year. It’s not too good. His OPS+ is 39.

Now, you really don’t want to have two players that weak offensively in the lineup at the same time. Maybe in an emergency situation. A day game after a night game. A second-game of a doubleheader. OK, look, I have followed bad baseball teams pretty much all my life, and I know that sometimes you just get caught in a situation where you have to play struggling players.

But to lead those two players off … well, that takes something more. And, hey, you can’t say it doesn’t work. Just on Monday the Taveras-Gonzalez duo scored two runs in the first inning in a Reds 6-4 victory. How did it happen? Taveras reached on an error. Gonzalez reached on a weak ground ball to third. And Brandon Phillips homered. Something you can count on.

There are many ways to manage a baseball game. And sometimes the illogical works. Sometimes the most strategic move fails. Sometimes a lineup pulled from a hat scores 10 runs and sometimes a lineup figured with mathematical precision gets shut out. Sometimes a manager wins even though his players hate him, and sometimes a manager loses even though his players love him, and sometimes it’s exactly the other way around.

And part of me just is in awe of the fact that Dusty Baker is still Dusty Baker, even after all these years, even after all the mockery, even after all the oh-so-obvious flaws. The world may change, but Dusty endures — he’s still just an ex-Marine looking hard into the eye of the storm and saying, “I don’t care. I am who I am. And I am invincible.”

Cyclone792
07-31-2009, 09:01 AM
And then I see this ... http://redlegnation.com/2009/07/30/does-this-mean-anything/

Hmmm ... I wonder where I've seen that information before. ;)

Always Red
07-31-2009, 09:52 AM
And then I see this ... http://redlegnation.com/2009/07/30/does-this-mean-anything/

Hmmm ... I wonder where I've seen that information before. ;)

Did it get plagiarized from some published John Fay work?? ;)

nate
07-31-2009, 10:01 AM
Did it get plagiarized from some published John Fay work?? ;)

Knot enuff typoes.

:cool:

Homer Bailey
07-31-2009, 10:44 AM
I really really really hate that man as a manager. It is an absolute farce that he still has a job.

flyer85
07-31-2009, 10:53 AM
I am pretty sure the 2009 Reds are the epitome of dysfunction.