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View Full Version : Jr and Dunn ... what's up



flyer85
05-08-2008, 01:06 PM
we know that they are both off to slow starts so I went to fangraphs to look a little deeper into the numbers.

Dunn: The one thing the jumped out was BABIP which was very much below norm(.243 vs .292 career) ... his LD% is down slightly(17.8). The other difference is his GB/FB ratio is 1.0 versus 0.73. Obviously less FBs generally means less HRs. His contact percentages show nothing major going on. Too many GBs, some bad luck and a bit of a slow start seem to be the only issue.

Jr: While his BABIP is down(.265 vs .285 career) his LD % has dropped considerably over the last 3 seasons and is down to 12.5% this year. His HR/FB % is down more than 50% from his norm(8% vs 17%). In Jrs case it could be a slow start but it also could be father time catching up causing a serious drop in power. When you reach the late 30s and aren't juicing there is always the distinct possibly that the skills have simply disappeared. Jrs numbers will need to be watched closely to see what is happening is an aberration or a new trend.

missionhockey21
05-08-2008, 01:36 PM
I think the key with Jr. is to evaluate what happens after 600. This very well could be father-time catching up or just someone off to a slow start and is pressing to reach a milestone, the month after 600 occurs should be very telling.

Wheelhouse
05-08-2008, 01:39 PM
Age?

Razor Shines
05-08-2008, 02:22 PM
we know that they are both off to slow starts so I went to fangraphs to look a little deeper into the numbers.

Dunn: The one thing the jumped out was BABIP which was very much below norm(.243 vs .292 career) ... his LD% is down slightly(17.8). The other difference is his GB/FB ratio is 1.0 versus 0.73. Obviously less FBs generally means less HRs. His contact percentages show nothing major going on. Too many GBs, some bad luck and a bit of a slow start seem to be the only issue.

Jr: While his BABIP is down(.265 vs .285 career) his LD % has dropped considerably over the last 3 seasons and is down to 12.5% this year. His HR/FB % is down more than 50% from his norm(8% vs 17%). In Jrs case it could be a slow start but it also could be father time catching up causing a serious drop in power. When you reach the late 30s and aren't juicing there is always the distinct possibly that the skills have simply disappeared. Jrs numbers will need to be watched closely to see what is happening is an aberration or a new trend.

Good post. I've been reluctant to say that Jr's hitting skills have dramatically faded from last year to this one, but it looks like that's possibly what has happened. I thought there would be a slight drop off, but I expected Jr. to put up numbers near what he did last year. I am still holding out hope that he'll rebound from a slow April similar to the way he did last year.

I still say he can be productive if his patience at the plate increases. Last year he walked once every 7 PAs this year he's walking once every 10 PAs. His P/PA is still very good this year (3.96) so it could be that he's being just as patient as last year, but he's not walking because no one is afraid of him. I hope that's not the case but if I'm honest I have to admit that it's looking like a real possibility.

Jpup
05-08-2008, 03:11 PM
It appears, from watching the games, that Dunn has hit a lot of balla hard that have found people. I also think the book is catching up with him combined with pressing a little. Jr. is just off to his normal slow start and his age is catching up.