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Spring~Fields
05-08-2008, 04:40 PM
Individual
Jay Bruce
Season BA, OBP, SLG, OPS
.325 .353 .548 .900

Splits:--- BA, OBP, SLG, OPS
vs Left-- .333 .317 .513 .830
vs Right .322 .367 .563 .931

Runners On .389 .406 .630 1.036
Scr Position .313 .357 .563 .920

April .316 .340 .561 .901
May- .357 .394 .500 .894


2008 Season Bruce, comparison,
even though it is Hairston/Freel/Patterson majors vs. Bruces minors ;)
Bruce -
.325 .353 .548 .900 Winner !!!
vs Left-- .333 .317 .513 .830
vs Right .322 .367 .563 .931
Runners On .389 .406 .630 1.036
Scoring Position .313 .357 .563 .920
April .316 .340 .561 .901
May- .357 .394 .500 .894

Hairston -
.345 .367 .517 .884
vs. Left .333 .400 .556 .956
vs. Right .350 .350 .500 .850
Runners On .455 .455 .818 1.273
Scoring Position .429 .429 .429 .858
April .348 .375 .435 .810
May .333 .333 .833 1.166

Freel -
.304 .347 .362 .709
vs. Left-- .344 .382 .438 .820
vs. Right .270 .317 .297 .614
Runners On------ .360 .393 .440 .833
Scoring Position .471 .444 .588 1.032
April .321 .351 .377 .728
May- .250 .333 .313 .646

Patterson -
.200 .260 .421 .681
vs. Left .083 .154 .083 .237
vs. Right .217 .275 .470 .745
Runners On .184 .256 .342 .598
Scoring Position .190 .308 .429 .737
April .225 .292 .488 .780
May .091 .091 .091 .182




3 year splits 2005-2007 - OBP, SLG, OPS
Freel -
vs. Left .345 .363 .708
vs. Right .356 .382 .738
Patterson -
vs. Left .268 .365 .633
vs. Right .300 .403 .703
Hairston -
vs. Left .274 .302 .576
vs. Right .318 .337 .655

Matt700wlw
05-08-2008, 04:49 PM
Wait, he can hit lefties?

That's unpossible.

Spring~Fields
05-08-2008, 05:04 PM
Wait, he can hit lefties?

That's unpossible.

.............dog gone shame......:)

Not to mention that he can only play right field, even though he plays center field frequently and plays it well along with an occasional start in left.

membengal
05-08-2008, 05:32 PM
So, he's good again?

Matt700wlw
05-08-2008, 05:33 PM
.............dog gone shame......:)

Not to mention that he can only play right field, even though he plays center field frequently and plays it well along with an occasional start in left.

More unpossibleness

TheBigLebowski
05-08-2008, 06:43 PM
I'm of the opinion that he needs to be in Cincy. He really has nothing left to prove on the minor league level.

Spring~Fields
05-08-2008, 09:44 PM
More unpossibleness

Matt you're slipping, a couple other glowing problems with Bruce: :)

Don't forget the history of leg problems that we heard out of spring training, and this one, his plate control and discipline is so terrible that he is only able to manage these paltry numbers below. ;)

vs Left-- .333 .317 .513 .830
vs Right .322 .367 .563 .931

.322 - .333 batting average range,
.513 - .563 slugging percentage range,

.830 - .931 OPS, range better hold him back until it reaches .1300

jmac
05-08-2008, 10:59 PM
I'm of the opinion that he needs to be in Cincy. He really has nothing left to prove on the minor league level.
Overall I agree.
I wish they would put him in CF and let him roam the rest of the season as we all know he is the heir apparent to RF.
I am sure he will be at some point this season but being a little anxious, I wish he would be in there tomorrow night in Big Apple.

Joseph
05-09-2008, 12:05 PM
Homer made his big league debut last year against Cleveland....any chance Jay stars in the sequel?

Blue
05-09-2008, 12:24 PM
He has decent walk numbers against RHP, but is yet to take a walk against a LHP this season in 39 ABs. That's the next step for him, but overall I'm pretty sure he could make it in the majors right now. Can't wait to see him.

cumberlandreds
05-09-2008, 01:40 PM
I'm of the opinion that he needs to be in Cincy. He really has nothing left to prove on the minor league level.

Ridiculous he's not in the majors. I think it's all about the arb clock. The Reds are afraid to begin that clock ticking.

AmarilloRed
05-09-2008, 01:44 PM
I like the fact that he hits well with runners in scoring position-.313, .357, .563 sound good to me.

CrackerJack
05-09-2008, 01:48 PM
Dusty likes Corey, he's a veteran. That trumps a better player, cmon, this is Cincinnati folks, get with the program.

Redman15
05-09-2008, 03:51 PM
So, he's good again?

According to BA's who's hot he is:

No. 8 JAY BRUCE, CF
REDS
Team: Triple-A Louisville (International)
Age: 21
Why he's here: .400/.464/.560 (10-for-25), 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBIs, 4 R, 1-for-1 SB, 3 BB, 7 SO
The Scoop: One could be forgiven for wondering how it is that the best prospect in the land could hit .325 with power in Triple-A at age 21 and not sniff the Hot Sheet. Well, wonder no more. Bruce has produced steadily all season—without having that one knockout week—but the sum of his accomplishments can no longer be ignored. You see the numbers above, but what you don't see is that Bruce may just be getting started. After beginning the week 0-for-8, Bruce collected 10 hits in his next 17 at-bats, which when coupled with two walks, meant that he reached base in 12 of 19 plate appearances—or three times per game.

Kingspoint
05-10-2008, 05:52 PM
I don't know what he's supposed to be proving to anybody at this point. Dunn can't play left, Junior can't play right, so why worry about how well Bruce plays Center...certainly he's going to do a better job of it than those two do in their positions.

Stingray
05-10-2008, 07:09 PM
Ridiculous he's not in the majors. I think it's all about the arb clock. The Reds are afraid to begin that clock ticking.


It probably is about the arb clock, but that's not ridiculous. By waiting until early June the Reds keep control for an extra year. If they bring him up now he'd probably qualify for a super two - I, for one, am in no hurry to see him go the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers. Its probably a consideration for Homer's callup also.

I'd much rather see the Reds top prospects developed enough in the minors so they can contribute immediately rather than spend the first few years under Reds control doing their development at the Major Leaque level.

jmac
05-10-2008, 11:06 PM
Dusty likes Corey, he's a veteran. That trumps a better player, cmon, this is Cincinnati folks, get with the program.
The Votto-Hatt situation says it isnt always that way !

Matt700wlw
05-11-2008, 11:01 AM
For being the right fielder of the future (so we're told), he doesn't play it much

CF 17
RF 8
LF 5

gedred69
05-11-2008, 01:35 PM
Read Erardi's article in the Sunday paper. He gives a decent look into what the Reds brass currently is looking for from Bruce.

Spring~Fields
05-11-2008, 04:33 PM
Read Erardi's article in the Sunday paper. He gives a decent look into what the Reds brass currently is looking for from Bruce.

I saw that and I was trying to do some cross checking to see if the Reds are being consistent.

fearofpopvol1
05-11-2008, 10:08 PM
I still don't think Bruce is ready. He Ks too much for my liking.

Cyclone792
05-12-2008, 08:20 AM
I still don't think Bruce is ready. He Ks too much for my liking.

If that's the case then he'll never be ready for your liking.

lollipopcurve
05-12-2008, 08:26 AM
Dusty likes Corey, he's a veteran. That trumps a better player, cmon, this is Cincinnati folks, get with the program.

Why is Votto playing over Hatteberg? Why has EdE been at 3rd since he was 23?

IslandRed
05-12-2008, 10:58 AM
It probably is about the arb clock, but that's not ridiculous. By waiting until early June the Reds keep control for an extra year. If they bring him up now he'd probably qualify for a super two - I, for one, am in no hurry to see him go the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers. Its probably a consideration for Homer's callup also.

Keep in mind that the arbitration clock is separate from the free-agency clock. Calling him up now versus mid-June doesn't mean we lose control of Bruce any sooner; it just makes him expensive sooner.

Stingray
05-12-2008, 12:07 PM
Keep in mind that the arbitration clock is separate from the free-agency clock. Calling him up now versus mid-June doesn't mean we lose control of Bruce any sooner; it just makes him expensive sooner.


My understanding is that the club has 3 years until arb (unless a super two) and a fixed # of years of arb(2yrs, 3yrs? not sure of the correct #). If that's correct we gain a year of control if we delay arb by a year. If I'm wrong please give me the correct info.

IslandRed
05-12-2008, 01:27 PM
My understanding is that the club has 3 years until arb (unless a super two) and a fixed # of years of arb(2yrs, 3yrs? not sure of the correct #). If that's correct we gain a year of control if we delay arb by a year. If I'm wrong please give me the correct info.

A player is not eligible for free agency until he has six years' worth of service time (as defined by time on the big club's active roster or DL, with a "year" equalling 172 days). That is independent of anything that has to do with arbitration. Arbitration eligibility begins after three years of service time, unless the player qualifies as a super-two.

Because Bruce has spent six weeks or so in the minors already, the earliest he can be eligible for free agency is after the 2014 season. If he comes up now, he might be eligible for arbitration after the 2010 season as a super-two. If he came up in mid-June, he likely wouldn't be arb-eligible until after 2011. But either way, it doesn't change his free-agency threshold.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 01:40 PM
If that's the case then he'll never be ready for your liking.

I completely disagree. You can become better with your plate discipline with age. He's striking out in more than 25% of his plate appearences in AAA. Pitching in the bigs won't be any easier to hit, so he's likely to see that % go up. The Ks would be okay if he walked more, but he doesn't. I'm not suggesting that the Reds wait forever or anything, but he needs to be better with pitch recognition to really succeed.

IslandRed
05-12-2008, 02:27 PM
For what it's worth, Bruce's strikeout rate this year isn't really any different than it was last year. His walk rate is down slightly, though.

The question at hand is whether further exposure to Triple-A will do him any real good. At every level since last spring's start in Sarasota, he's struck out a little more than we'd like and walked a little less than we'd like. And absolutely torn the cover off the ball. So it is again, at .348 with a .991 OPS as of this afternoon. He's probably going to have to learn the rest of his lessons in the majors; Triple-A pitchers simply aren't going to get him out often enough to effect behavior change.

membengal
05-12-2008, 02:51 PM
So, he's good again?

dougdirt
05-12-2008, 02:51 PM
I completely disagree. You can become better with your plate discipline with age. He's striking out in more than 25% of his plate appearences in AAA. Pitching in the bigs won't be any easier to hit, so he's likely to see that % go up. The Ks would be okay if he walked more, but he doesn't. I'm not suggesting that the Reds wait forever or anything, but he needs to be better with pitch recognition to really succeed.

No he isn't. Through 6 at bats today Jay is striking out 21.9% of his plate appearances this year. Still nothing to be overly impressed by, but 22% isn't quite more than 25%.

Cyclone792
05-12-2008, 02:57 PM
I completely disagree. You can become better with your plate discipline with age. He's striking out in more than 25% of his plate appearences in AAA. Pitching in the bigs won't be any easier to hit, so he's likely to see that % go up. The Ks would be okay if he walked more, but he doesn't. I'm not suggesting that the Reds wait forever or anything, but he needs to be better with pitch recognition to really succeed.

Your original post merely stated that Bruce strikes out too much for your liking; you listed nothing in it involving walks.

So which is it? He strikes out too much, or he doesn't walk enough?

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 03:03 PM
Your original post merely stated that Bruce strikes out too much for your liking; you listed nothing in it involving walks.

So which is it? He strikes out too much, or he doesn't walk enough?

Just because I didn't list the walks doesn't mean it's not any more relevant. It's both.

Cyclone792
05-12-2008, 03:26 PM
Just because I didn't list the walks doesn't mean it's not any more relevant. It's both.

This is hilarious; dude, your original post simply said he strikes out too much.

When called on it, your argument shifted.

Gotta love it.

Nugget
05-12-2008, 03:32 PM
I don't believe it is just the strikeouts that is the worry - it probably more the way he strikes out - if it is something that could make him subsceptible to major league pitching then it may be that the REDS want to make sure he knows how to deal with it before he is brought up.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 03:43 PM
This is hilarious; dude, your original post simply said he strikes out too much.

When called on it, your argument shifted.

Gotta love it.

I didn't change my argument, I provided additional information to support it. Big difference.

He does strike out too much. Maybe you missed what I said the first time (even though it's stated pretty clearly), but it's no less relevant. Original point still stands. I don't think he's ready.

Cyclone792
05-12-2008, 04:39 PM
I didn't change my argument, I provided additional information to support it. Big difference.

He does strike out too much. Maybe you missed what I said the first time (even though it's stated pretty clearly), but it's no less relevant. Original point still stands. I don't think he's ready.

Then why didn't you post all of that the first time instead of merely saying he strikes out too much?

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 04:49 PM
Then why didn't you post all of that the first time instead of merely saying he strikes out too much?

Because I didn't have all the stats in front of me at that time.

OnBaseMachine
05-12-2008, 04:54 PM
A phone call away

It's hard to imagine we haven't talked about Jay Bruce since the season began. I'd say that the Reds' top prospect is on fire right now, but truthfully, that's how he hits all the time. He's now up to .328 with a .565 slugging percentage at Triple-A. The Reds are in last place, and Corey Patterson is still getting regular playing time in spite of his .196 average. If this is a service-time thing, then Bruce could get the call at the end of this month or at the beginning of June to provide a much-needed spark. When that happens, everyone in every kind of league should pick him up, because he's going to play once he does get up.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080512&content_id=397853&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

Stingray
05-12-2008, 04:55 PM
A player is not eligible for free agency until he has six years' worth of service time (as defined by time on the big club's active roster or DL, with a "year" equalling 172 days). That is independent of anything that has to do with arbitration. Arbitration eligibility begins after three years of service time, unless the player qualifies as a super-two.

Because Bruce has spent six weeks or so in the minors already, the earliest he can be eligible for free agency is after the 2014 season. If he comes up now, he might be eligible for arbitration after the 2010 season as a super-two. If he came up in mid-June, he likely wouldn't be arb-eligible until after 2011. But either way, it doesn't change his free-agency threshold.


Thanks for the info IR. I guess the FA date for Homer would also be 2014 but if he came up now the arb date would probably be 2010. Under those conditions there is some $ advantage to wait until early June for Bruce or early July for Homer.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 05:02 PM
Jay Bruce playing CF after game one today 05/12/08
Splits Update

Season - .348 .375 .609 .984

vs Left .370 .354 .609 .963
vs Right .337.385 .609 .993

April .316 .340 .561 .901
May .425 .457 .725 1.182

Bases Empty .316 .341 .557 .898
Runners On .390 .414 .678 1.092
Scoring Position .343 .391 .686 1.077

I am not being sarcastic or rude or taking issue below with the other posters who disagree here.

I just don’t see in the real numbers or percentages, the objective facts, where Bruces strikeouts or bat control concerns are realistically hurting his production or performance numbers which are a true indicator of his abilities to date.

Grande Donkey
05-12-2008, 05:08 PM
Pitchers are going to start pitching around him very soon and his walks will rise. His OPS will be over 1.000 by the end of the month IMO.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 05:15 PM
Pitchers are going to start pitching around him very soon and his walks will rise. His OPS will be over 1.000 by the end of the month IMO.

And he has nothing special hitting in front or behind him in my opinion, I think that you will be right. May ops so far 1.182

Cyclone792
05-12-2008, 05:38 PM
I am not being sarcastic or rude or taking issue below with the other posters who disagree here.

I just don’t see in the real numbers or percentages, the objective facts, where Bruces strikeouts or bat control concerns are realistically hurting his production or performance numbers which are a true indicator of his abilities to date.

Down in the minors a player can quite easily rake while still drawing few walks. That type of stuff happens fairly often when you're facing marginal major league pitchers and pitching prospects who are still very much fine tuning their game.

But in the majors there's a clearly-defined scenario that unfolds when players are unable to draw walks, which is that players who draw few walks have a low ceiling on what they'll slug.

This is all proven throughout major league history too. See the chart I posted not too long ago: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1620078&postcount=16

What I mean is, with absolute rate exception - and I'm talking rare as in a handful of times in major league history - will you see a guy slug much higher than .500 or so with a poor walk rate. Brandon Phillips is a pretty good example here: poor walk rate, subpar on-base percentage, slugs decent but he's still not going to slug .550. He may slug .500 periodically, give or take a few points, but that's his ceiling in slugging unless he walks more. Alfonso Soriano is the absolute outlier here, but he's a very rare exception, not the rule.

The cutoff for me is typically a PA/BB ratio of 12, or 1 walk every 12 plate appearances. If players can show a history of walking at least once every 12 plate appearances, then typically they have enough history of plate discipline to continue improving their walk rate and improving their total offensive game. It's when guys are higher than 12 that they really start to struggle with plate discipline, and subsequently overall offensive production, once they face major league pitching on a regular basis (see Wily Mo Pena as a perfect example). Here's Bruce's minor league career so far in PA/BB:

Rookie (GCL + Billings): 9.86
Low-A (Dayton): 11.32
High-A (Sarasota): 12.42
Double-A (Chattanooga): 9.25
Triple-A (Louisville): 14.54

Total: 11.77

For his minor league career, Bruce is right near the cutoff with a PA/BB ratio of 11.77 (I didn't bother including today). His AAA rates are a bit higher than I'd like to see though at 14.54. I'd really like to see that ratio drop close to 12 before the Reds call him up. The closer to 12 that ratio gets, the happier I am. That doesn't mean Bruce is going to fall on his face if his AAA walk rate is only 14 rather than 12, but it does mean I think he'll have a bit less chance at breaking out in the majors right away.

As far as when the Reds decide to call Bruce up, well they're saying the right things, but we all know what the Reds say and what they ultimately do can be two totally different things. Whether Bruce's walk rate improves or not, I expect him in a Reds uniform within a month. If nothing else, the Reds will promote him as a publicity stunt ala Bailey last season to help prevent dwindling interest in the team at the attendance gate as the team lingers in last place.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 05:43 PM
2007
Sar .325 .379 .586 .965
Cha .333 .405 .652 1.057
Lou .305 .358 .567 .925

2008
.348 .375 .609 .984

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 05:50 PM
Down in the minors a player can quite easily rake while still drawing few walks. That type of stuff happens fairly often when you're facing marginal major league pitchers and pitching prospects who are still very much fine tuning their game.

But in the majors there's a clearly-defined scenario that unfolds when players are unable to draw walks, which is that players who draw few walks have a low ceiling on what they'll slug.

This is all proven throughout major league history too. See the chart I posted not too long ago: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1620078&postcount=16

What I mean is, with absolute rate exception - and I'm talking rare as in a handful of times in major league history - will you see a guy slug much higher than .500 or so with a poor walk rate. Brandon Phillips is a pretty good example here: poor walk rate, subpar on-base percentage, slugs decent but he's still not going to slug .550. He may slug .500 periodically, give or take a few points, but that's his ceiling in slugging unless he walks more. Alfonso Soriano is the absolute outlier here, but he's a very rare exception, not the rule.

The cutoff for me is typically a PA/BB ratio of 12, or 1 walk every 12 plate appearances. If players can show a history of walking at least once every 12 plate appearances, then typically they have enough history of plate discipline to continue improving their walk rate and improving their total offensive game. It's when guys are higher than 12 that they really start to struggle with plate discipline, and subsequently overall offensive production, once they face major league pitching on a regular basis (see Wily Mo Pena as a perfect example). Here's Bruce's minor league career so far in PA/BB:

Rookie (GCL + Billings): 9.86
Low-A (Dayton): 11.32
High-A (Sarasota): 12.42
Double-A (Chattanooga): 9.25
Triple-A (Louisville): 14.54

Total: 11.77

For his minor league career, Bruce is right near the cutoff with a PA/BB ratio of 11.77 (I didn't bother including today). His AAA rates are a bit higher than I'd like to see though at 14.54. I'd really like to see that ratio drop close to 12 before the Reds call him up. The closer to 12 that ratio gets, the happier I am. That doesn't mean Bruce is going to fall on his face if his AAA walk rate is only 14 rather than 12, but it does mean I think he'll have a bit less chance at breaking out in the majors right away.

As far as when the Reds decide to call Bruce up, well they're saying the right things, but we all know what the Reds say and what they ultimately do can be two totally different things. Whether Bruce's walk rate improves or not, I expect him in a Reds uniform within a month. If nothing else, the Reds will promote him as a publicity stunt ala Bailey last season to help prevent dwindling interest in the team at the attendance gate as the team lingers in last place.

I think that is very interesting and insightful information and thank you for taking the time to draw that out for me.
Thanks Cyclone

IamWallaman
05-12-2008, 06:57 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8171/news

Don't know how "soon" they're talking about... but if it means Patterson is gone, it can't be soon enough.

RedlegJake
05-13-2008, 08:11 AM
Really good opinions and backup info on this thread! The Reds need Jay Bruce but they need him to succeed.

Bringing him up before he's ready will be hard on Bruce since he is already anointed savior by the press and the casual fan base. That said, I think he'll adjust to ML hitting as he has quickly done at each level but his success may be helped by

a/hitting him lower in the lineup initially, taking pressure off him a bit and making him be selective as pitchers will be cautious.

b/Keeping Dusty and his "walking is for dogs" line and "often the best pitch to hit is the first one" line away from him.

A can be accomplished. B he will have to learn to ignore. For a young hitter who needs to learn to take a walk I cant think of a manager less likely to assist his development once he hits the bigs.

Spring~Fields
05-14-2008, 05:42 PM
I have seen nothing to change my mind that Jay Bruce was then and still is the right player to be playing everyday in a Reds uniform.

Many of us were determined throughout and at the end of spring training that Jay Bruce was the player for the job, while others went along with the company line and Dusty Baker saying that Bruce needed more time down in AAA.

I think that it is a shame that the staff that evaluated Bruce to be beneath the current roster players in the outfield of the Reds made such a poor decision during spring training, while they sent other players north who were struggling, and continue to struggle or had a poor history to reject Bruce in lieu of them.

When a player hits like this below I don’t concern myself with strikeouts and walks or age biases.

Jay Bruce was quoted as having said, “that one day I will look back on being sent down this past spring training and laugh”. I can’t help but believe him.

Jay Bruce
145 AB, 27 R, 53 H, 9 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 96 TB, 11 BB,
34 So, 7 SB

Season .366 .398 .662 1.060

Splits Update
vs Left .383 .380 .660 1.040
vs Right .357 .405 .663 1.069

Home Games .383 .418 .850 1.268
Away Games .353 .383 .529 .912

April .316 .340 .561 .901
May .468 .509 .872 1.381

Ahead in Count .460 .548 .840 1.388
Bases Empty .337 .368 .627 .994
Runners On .403 .432 .710 1.142
Scoring Position .368 .420 .737 1.157

I wanted to see what a couple other players did in the minors that we are actually familiar with and then how they have done in the majors.

Minor League Stats
Josh Hamilton
1999
Rk .347 .382 .593 .975
A- .194 .205 .236 .441
2000
A .302 .347 .476 .823
2001
A .364 .462 .727 1.189
AA .180 .223 .236 .459
2002
A+ .303 .364 .507 .871
2006
A- .260 .327 .360 .687
2007
AAA .350 .422 .675 1.097
Cin. 292 .368 .554 .922
2008
Tex. .301 .357 .552 .909

Joey Votto
2002
RK .269 .347 .531 .878
2003
RK ..317 .446 .488 .934
A .231 .345 .287 .632
2004
A .302 .419 .486 .905
A + .298 .379 .560 .939

2005
A+ .256 .330 .425 .755
2006
AA .319 .408 .547 .955
2007
AAA .294 .381 .478 .859
Cin. .321 .360 .548 .907

2008
Cin. .288 .358 .568 .925

RedsManRick
05-14-2008, 05:53 PM
FWIW, if Bruce walks twice in his next game, he's pretty much at 12 AB/BB. Not that his current walk rate is good, but I can't help but wonder if the way he's approach his at bats aren't harming his walk rate. I'd be very curious to see his swing rates on strikes and balls. If he's swinging more overall, that would both inflate his SO rate and depress his BB rate.

When faced with better competition, perhaps he adopts a more patient approach. 100% conjecture at this point, but it's hard to not justify the promotion of a guy OPSing 1.060.

Cyclone792
05-14-2008, 06:15 PM
FWIW, if Bruce walks twice in his next game, he's pretty much at 12 AB/BB. Not that his current walk rate is good, but I can't help but wonder if the way he's approach his at bats aren't harming his walk rate. I'd be very curious to see his swing rates on strikes and balls. If he's swinging more overall, that would both inflate his SO rate and depress his BB rate.

When faced with better competition, perhaps he adopts a more patient approach. 100% conjecture at this point, but it's hard to not justify the promotion of a guy OPSing 1.060.

This is partially why I've found the cutoff to be around 12 PA per walk, and it's a soft cutoff moreso than a hard cutoff. If Bruce's AAA walk rate is 13.50 rather than 12, it's not too big of a deal. His full minor league walk rate is now 11.60, and that's likely more important so long as his AAA walk rate hasn't fallen off a cliff (and it hasn't).

The key is what I've found, which is the difference between say ... 35 walks and 50 walks every 600 PAs is much more significant than the difference between 65 walks and 50 walks every 600 PAs. The 35s are just hackers through and through who are what they are and rarely change while 50s and up have shown enough plate discipline and plate control to have continued success in the big leagues, both in walk rates and in overall production.

BTW, here's a more detailed post I made last year on this.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1327018&highlight=walk+rate#post1327018

The interesting thing I find when looking at it now is I very much come to the same conclusion on Bruce: I think he's where he needs to be to join what I term the Alex Rodriguez Club. His minor league walk rates are right at the level they need to be to take that next step once he gets a decent sample of big league PAs. Even a year later, he's still the type of hitting prospect where I wouldn't be surprised if he's drawing 75 walks a year by the time he's 26. He's following precisely the same path, both in minor league hitting dominance and minor league walk rates, as some other great, young hitters.

Spring~Fields
05-14-2008, 07:00 PM
I agree with you

Conjecture - a conclusion, judgment, or statement based on incomplete or inconclusive information

That is an excellent choice and right choice for the input/feedback regarding Jay Bruce at the major league level. True we donít have complete or conclusive information, so his major league performance is guesswork at this time, we canít determine how he will perform against the major league pitchers without the future information that is gathered from his output at that level.

I also think that we agree that his numbers in the minors are consistent and large enough to cover some of the unknown, some of the questions marks that are yet to be determined, to cover some of the ups and downs that are normally expected to come with the player moving up.

As you are suggesting, I believe that his stats say that Jay Bruce has qualified safely with a decent cushion for error, in his stats, for the opportunity to play at the major league level.

Will his skills at the plate continue to improve at the mlb level, or will he be a flash in the pan flop, or somewhere in the middle, that all remains to be seen. I think that we all agree that his consistent/strong numbers indicate a very good chance of success at the next level.

One thing that does bother me and perhaps all of you will respond, take a sedative in disagreeing with me, I am concerned about Bruce being called up to the Reds when they have several tenured ballplayers with future contract status in question. How he might be received with them, Griffey, Dunn, Patterson and Freel, when this new boy comes in looking to push them out, even Dustyís approach and handling of Bruce and the situation.
I would like a situation where Bruce only has to focus on baseball skills only.

Spring~Fields
05-14-2008, 08:38 PM
Jocketty addresses Bruce, Jr.
GM: Team in no rush to call up Bruce, has had no Jr. trade talks
BY JOHN FAY

Jay Bruce might be the hottest hitter on the planet. The Reds prospect went 3-for-3 with a double, triple and home run for Triple-A Lousville in an 11-6 win over Scranton today. He's hitting .667 with three home runs and nine RBI over his last five games. He's hitting .611 over his last 10 games.

Does it get to the point where the Reds need to bring him up?

"The main thing is you've got to make sure you've got enough playing time," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "I don't think we feel comfortable that we have the adequate playing time. At some point, we just have to do it. Believe me, it hasn't gone unnoticed. We have so many good left-handed hitting outfielders, we have to see what would be the best time to bring him up.

"At some point, you just do it."

An opening obviously would be created if the Reds traded Ken Griffey Jr. But for all the talk about that, nothing is even remotely close to happening.

"I've had no trade discussions," Jocketty said.

Jocketty has talked to Griffey about the situation. As a player with 10 years experience and five years tenure with his current club, Griffey must approve any trade.

"I've talked with him," Jocketty said. "Not knowing Junior that well, I wanted to make sure we had a line of communication open. He assured me that he'd like to play here and hopefully win a championship."




At least I know what the real obstacles and holdup is now.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 09:20 PM
Where are all these good left-handed hitting outfielders they speak of?

membengal
05-14-2008, 09:34 PM
It appears Jocketty is suffering from some sort of exposure to hallucinogens. Unfortunate.

Spring~Fields
05-14-2008, 09:50 PM
Where are all these good left-handed hitting outfielders they speak of?


I donít know unless that is code for the following below.

I am guessing that he means that he has so many outfielders that they are paying a lot money to now with major league tenure, and that the other teams havenít shown any interest in them, Hairston, Patterson, Freel, Griffey, Dunn and Hopper so he has no room for Bruce at this time. (off the wall thought follows) I bet that he could trade Bruce faster than the ones he has right now.

SultanOfSwing
05-15-2008, 01:33 PM
Also of note: how many pitches he sees per plate appearance

As of 4/29, his current rate is 3.85 P/PA. That would be top-8 in the ML for either CF or RF (for both 2007 and 2008).

From this it appears he has very good plate discipline. He just ends up smacking the ball more often than not. If his batting average was a little lower but his walk rate higher, would everyone be happier? Say .308 .378? Probably. Would he be a better hitter? Probably not.

When he reaches the majors, he will likely discover that he cannot crush the pitching as easily (at least not at first). Therefore, he will be a little less aggressive and his walk rate will rise. I also believe he will learn to walk more often as he matures at the ML level, without sacrificing his other attributes.

One thing is certain: Jay Bruce is not a hacker. He does not seem to be swinging at anything and everything and finding success due to inferior pitching. He has been selective.

Many thanks to OBM for the P/PA stats:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=67623

mlbfan30
05-15-2008, 01:58 PM
"The main thing is you've got to make sure you've got enough playing time," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "I don't think we feel comfortable that we have the adequate playing time. At some point, we just have to do it. Believe me, it hasn't gone unnoticed. We have so many good left-handed hitting outfielders, we have to see what would be the best time to bring him up.

This is what sticks out to me. How is it so hard for Patterson to be the 4th OF with Bruce starting fulltime at CF. I really don't understand why the organization is so against Bruce playing CF. Bruce isn't great, but he's not bad. This is just a horrible excuse. Just bring him up, sign him to a Longoria/Tolo/Braun deal, and let him play. It's not that hard.

dougdirt
05-15-2008, 02:59 PM
Yeah, who needs playing time for a kid with a 1.060 OPS in AAA when we have 4 outfielders currently getting most of the time all under .800 OPS and 3 of the 4 under .730? I know the Reds sure don't.

Spring~Fields
05-21-2008, 05:27 PM
Bruce - Splits Update 5/21/07
Games 45 AB 168 Runs 32 Hits 62 2B 9
3B 5 HR 10 RBI 37 TB 111 BB 11
SO 41 SB 8 CS 1

Season AVG OBP SLG OPS
.369 .397 .661 1.057

Vs. Left .400 .396 .720 1.116
Vs. Right .356 .397 .636 1.033

Home .373 .402 .827 1.229
Away .366 .392 .527 .919

Day .411 .444 .786 1.230
Night .348 .372 .598 .970

April .316 .340 .561 .901
May .443 .474 .800 1.274

Ahead Count .448 .529 .828 1.356
Behind Count .179 .167 .375 .542

Bases Empty .340 .366 .619 .985
Runners On .408 .434 .718 1.152
Scoring Pos .390 .434 .805 1.239