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reds44
05-10-2008, 11:17 PM
Averaging over 7 RPG the last three games, and nearly 6 over the last 6 games (and that includes a shutout).

Are they finally starting to bust out?

AmarilloRed
05-10-2008, 11:21 PM
Let's hope it was only a prolonged slump, and they have broken out of it.

Screwball
05-10-2008, 11:27 PM
Are they finally starting to bust out?

Yes they are, IMO. This isn't the 2005 offense, but it was only a matter of time until they actually started playing up to their capabilities.

jesusfan
05-10-2008, 11:28 PM
if we can get the game tomorrow with Cueto going against Perez I think we can make a run with Harang and Volquez starting the first 2 against the fins.... we also face a rookie in the 1st game, Hendrickson the 2nd, Nolasco the 3rd game, and Andrew Miller in the 4th game... win tomorrow, take 3 of 4 from the fins and we have ourselves a 19-23 record... Let's do it!

Raisor
05-10-2008, 11:37 PM
Last six games

RS 34
RA 33

Record 3-3

Pythagoras, you sly dog....

VR
05-10-2008, 11:38 PM
Have the Reds hit more that a 2 run homer this year? I can't recall any at all.

GoReds
05-10-2008, 11:44 PM
The offense is picking up in spite of Dunn and Griffey.

oneupper
05-10-2008, 11:45 PM
EE's walk off was a three run shot.

fearofpopvol1
05-10-2008, 11:53 PM
The offense is picking up in spite of Dunn and Griffey.

Dunn is still slumping, but Griffey is starting to come around. He's been very good his last 5 games, offensively.

Raisor
05-11-2008, 12:37 AM
Originally Posted by GoReds
The offense is picking up in spite of Dunn and Griffey.



Dunn is still slumping, but Griffey is starting to come around. He's been very good his last 5 games, offensively.

The offense has been coming around the last week or so.

In that time, Dunn has an OPS of .997.

Matt700wlw
05-11-2008, 12:39 AM
Good to see....let's hope it lasts.

Far East
05-11-2008, 12:53 AM
If only either Hatteberg or Votto batted right-handed.

reds44
05-11-2008, 12:56 AM
If only either Hatteberg or Votto batted right-handed.
Yeah because we really need to replace Votto's .367/.457/.700/1.157 line vs. LHP.

**SAMPLE SIZE ALERT**

Raisor
05-11-2008, 01:00 AM
Yeah because we really need to replace Votto's .367/.457/.700/1.157 line vs. LHP.

**SAMPLE SIZE ALERT**

His career, which is still SMALL SAMPLE SIZE,
59 TPA .340/.407/.566/.973 vsLHP

I'll take that.

SteelSD
05-11-2008, 01:15 AM
If only either Hatteberg or Votto batted right-handed.

The Reds' issues have not been LH pitching:

2008 vs. LHP: .263 BA/.351 OBP/.427 SLG
2008 vs. RHP: .246 BA/.310 OBP/.410 SLG

The Reds' offensive issues have been solely due to a manager who can't figure out a lineup card. The offense would be perfectly fine without Baker's meddling. The rest is all about a former GM (Krivsky) who put together a pitching staff that simply isn't as advertised. I'm cringing as to what will happen when Edinson Volquez normalizes. It's going to be ugly and folks are going to be peeved.

Screwball
05-11-2008, 02:25 AM
The rest is all about a former GM (Krivsky) who put together a pitching staff that simply isn't as advertised. I'm cringing as to what will happen when Edinson Volquez normalizes. It's going to be ugly and folks are going to be peeved.

Well, Volquez is probably due to give up some HRs, but he still has an xFIP of 3.37, which isn't too far off his current ERA (1.06), at least compared to Arroyo's difference coming into tonight (4.54 xFIP to a then current 8.63 ERA). I think the normalization of Volquez will be offset by the normalization of Arroyo. Of course, there are other pitchers on the staff who may still waver as well in either direction, but I'm not really that put off by the pitching staff as a whole.

pahster
05-11-2008, 12:41 PM
Last six games

RS 34
RA 33

Record 3-3

Pythagoras, you sly dog....

Are you referring to yourself? I'm pretty sure you invented the pythag record. :p:

PuffyPig
05-11-2008, 01:15 PM
The Reds' offensive issues have been solely due to a manager who can't figure out a lineup card. The offense would be perfectly fine without Baker's meddling.


Our team OPS is .745, which suggests that the order of the hitters isn't the biggest problem.

guttle11
05-11-2008, 01:40 PM
Our team OPS is .745, which suggests that the order of the hitters isn't the biggest problem.

Uh, I don't think it suggests that at all. It suggests they aren't hitting well as a team, but nothing of the order. Whether you're the best or worst offense in the league, you can still maximize your production by putting guys in the proper order.

Maybe the Reds score 10 more runs to this point with a better order. Just 10 runs could have given them 1, 2, or maybe even three extra wins. Or none. Who knows? But I'd like 10 extra runs.

Raisor
05-11-2008, 08:41 PM
Our team OPS is .745, which suggests that the order of the hitters isn't the biggest problem.


I'd say it is.

Before today's game, the 1-4 slots in the lineup had a line of .251/.312/.390/.702 in 630 PA's

The 5-8 slots are
.273/.356/.487/.843 in 559 PA's.

It's a problem when the best hitters on the team are consently batting in the bottom half of the lineup.

edabbs44
05-11-2008, 08:49 PM
I'd say it is.

Before today's game, the 1-4 slots in the lineup had a line of .251/.312/.390/.702 in 630 PA's

The 5-8 slots are
.273/.356/.487/.843 in 559 PA's.

It's a problem when the best hitters on the team are consently batting in the bottom half of the lineup.

And then when he flip flops the lineup there will be no one to knock in the 1-4 hitters. I think the bigger problem is that half the lineup has a cumulative .702 OPS. Not including the pitcher.

Forget the lineups...the team just isn't that good. Time to face facts.

reds44
05-11-2008, 10:15 PM
And then when he flip flops the lineup there will be no one to knock in the 1-4 hitters. I think the bigger problem is that half the lineup has a cumulative .702 OPS. Not including the pitcher.

Forget the lineups...the team just isn't that good. Time to face facts.
Unless you bat a guy with a high average in the 8 hole.

Keppinger
Dunn
Encarnacion
Votto
Phillips
Griffey
Bako
Freel
Pitcher

Your bottom 2 before the pitcher are both hitting over .300.

edabbs44
05-11-2008, 10:42 PM
Unless you bat a guy with a high average in the 8 hole.

Keppinger
Dunn
Encarnacion
Votto
Phillips
Griffey
Bako
Freel
Pitcher

Your bottom 2 before the pitcher are both hitting over .300.

Expecting Freel and Bako to continue to hit over .300 when neither of them has ever hit .300 in a season is exactly the kind of losing maneuver this team would make.

If you truly expect this to continue, then Freel should hit leadoff and Bako should hit second. Then have the power guys knock them in.

SteelSD
05-12-2008, 12:06 AM
Our team OPS is .745, which suggests that the order of the hitters isn't the biggest problem.

Coming into tonight's game, the Reds' offense OPS was 101% of NL average. They finished 2007 at 102% of league average OPS. Context is important.

The only real issue with the offense at this point is that the lineup configurations have resulted in under-performance. Then add in Baker's propensity to want those "fast" guys to run, resulting in an abyssmal SB success rate of 62% and multiple pickoffs. Then add a dab of Baker's double-switching and we have a trifecta of offensive mismanagement the likes of which I've rarely seen.

The current offensive player mix can actually score enough runs to win ballgames IF they're used properly and IF the pitching is solid. Hmn...

Kc61
05-12-2008, 12:57 AM
Coming into tonight's game, the Reds' offense OPS was 101% of NL average. They finished 2007 at 102% of league average OPS. Context is important.

The only real issue with the offense at this point is that the lineup configurations have resulted in under-performance. Then add in Baker's propensity to want those "fast" guys to run, resulting in an abyssmal SB success rate of 62% and multiple pickoffs. Then add a dab of Baker's double-switching and we have a trifecta of offensive mismanagement the likes of which I've rarely seen.

The current offensive player mix can actually score enough runs to win ballgames IF they're used properly and IF the pitching is solid. Hmn...

Maybe, but I think this is just part of the analysis.

First off, I think it is difficult to use overall OPS numbers to judge performance after 38 games. This is because there may be a handful of games that skew the numbers. The Reds have had so many bad offensive performances this year, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the "good" OPS statistics is the result of relatively few games.

Second, the Reds overall OPS numbers may be better than average, but with men in scoring position it is decidedly substandard. The Reds are at .715 with RISP and the league averages .747. So some people have higher OPS numbers generally but poor OPS numbers with RISP. Example: Dunn's OPS is .772 and w/RISP is .503.

Third, and this is news to me, but the Reds OPS is better than average against lefties but worse than average against righty pitchers. The NL average OPS against righties is .735. Reds .722. Against lefties Reds are .804 (league ave .750) presumably due to Phillips, Votto and Kepp with very high OPS numbers against lefties. (These numbers probably before today.) These stats indicate to me that the Reds vaunted left handed hitters aren't exactly destroying right handed pitching.

I'm not a fan of some of Baker's batting orders. I am even less of a fan of some of the player decisions. Four lefties in the lineup today against O. Perez, with Bako catching, didn't make sense to me. However I am unwilling to absolve the players of responsibility and to pin it all on the manager. Some of these guys need to do better.

I do see positive trends with the offense and negative trends with the pitching. If you just glance at the OBP of the Reds players individually, they are clearly on the rise after some terrible starts to the season. I think they will produce more runs if this continues, even with some less than optimal batting orders.

Agree that pitching has been doing worse, the team ERA continues to slide. This trend can be stopped if Arroyo follows up on his good Shea outing; Cueto is nursed through this rough beginning; and a decent fifth starter emerges. Belisle's has allowed 32 hits in 19.1 innings, but maybe his luck will finally change. Or maybe somebody will replace him.

To me, the time to judge Baker will be when the personnel is better. The Reds still are short on personnel, both on offense and pitching.

*BaseClogger*
05-12-2008, 01:17 AM
Maybe, but I think this is just part of the analysis.

First off, I think it is difficult to use overall OPS numbers to judge performance after 38 games. This is because there may be a handful of games that skew the numbers. The Reds have had so many bad offensive performances this year, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the "good" OPS statistics is the result of relatively few games.

Second, the Reds overall OPS numbers may be better than average, but with men in scoring position it is decidedly substandard. The Reds are at .715 with RISP and the league averages .747. So some people have higher OPS numbers generally but poor OPS numbers with RISP. Example: Dunn's OPS is .772 and w/RISP is .503.

Third, and this is news to me, but the Reds OPS is better than average against lefties but worse than average against righty pitchers. The NL average OPS against righties is .735. Reds .722. Against lefties Reds are .804 (league ave .750) presumably due to Phillips, Votto and Kepp with very high OPS numbers against lefties. (These numbers probably before today.) These stats indicate to me that the Reds vaunted left handed hitters aren't exactly destroying right handed pitching.

I'm not a fan of some of Baker's batting orders. I am even less of a fan of some of the player decisions. Four lefties in the lineup today againt O. Perez, with Bako catching, didn't make sense to me. However I am unwilling to absolve the players of responsibility and to pin it all on the manager. Some of these guys need to do better.

I do see positive trends with the offense and negative trends with the pitching. If you just glance at the OBP of the Reds players individually, they are clearly on the rise after some terrible starts to the season. I think they will produce more runs if this continues, even with some less than optimal batting orders.

Agree that pitching has been doing worse, the team ERA continues to slide. This trend can be stopped if Arroyo follows up on his good Shea outing; Cueto is nursed through this rough beginning; and a decent fifth starter emerges. Belisle's has allowed 32 hits in 19.1 innings, but maybe his luck will finally change. Or maybe somebody will replace him.

To me, the time to judge Baker will be when the personnel is better. The Reds still are short on personnel, both on offense and pitching.

Well done :clap:

My only critique: I beleive that some of the RISP problems are also a result of the lineups...

SteelSD
05-12-2008, 01:43 AM
Second, the Reds overall OPS numbers may be better than average, but with men in scoring position it is decidedly substandard. The Reds are at .715 with RISP and the league averages .747. So some people have higher OPS numbers generally but poor OPS numbers with RISP. Example: Dunn's OPS is .772 and w/RISP is .503.

This is where it would help to do some research. Coming into tonight, the Reds have produced a .319 OBP with none on. With Runners on, their OBP is .333. With RISP, It's .336. And to clear up any BA issues, the Reds rank sixth in the NL in RISP BA at .266. They rank 8th in BA with Runners On at .264. The problem is that the Reds' most productive hitters aren't seeing a lot of players on base in front of them and that the players who're most likely to get on base have been slotted in the second half of the order rather than the first. That's resulted in too many poor hitters trying to drive in players who've actually been able to get on. When we add in the fact that the Reds have been too often starting games with a lineup starting with poor OBP hitters, we have the second half of the lineup pretty much fending for itself.


Third, and this is news to me, but the Reds OPS is better than average against lefties but worse than average against righty pitchers. The NL average OPS against righties is .735. Reds .722. Against lefties Reds are .804 (league ave .750) presumably due to Phillips, Votto and Kepp with very high OPS numbers against lefties. (These numbers probably before today.) These stats indicate to me that the Reds vaunted left handed hitters aren't exactly destroying right handed pitching.

Again, research is pretty cool. Versus RHP:

Jeff Keppinger: .309 OBP/.387 SLG
Brandon Phillips: .264 OBP/.350 SLG
Corey Patterson: .275 OBP/.470 SLG

Adam Dunn: .373 OBP/.451 SLG
Joey Votto: .320 OBP/.529 SLG
Ken Griffey: .360 OBP/.486 SLG

Edwin Encarnacion: .320 OBP/.529 SLG

The LH hitting group will improve versus RHP, but your conclusion isn't valid. Encarnacion is the only guy who's actually been something resembling good on the right side versus RH pitching. The LH hitters other than Patterson have been carrying their respective load versus northpaws. Patterson has been, as expected, a huge issue and neither Keppinger or Phillips have done much of anything against righties.


To me, the time to judge Baker will be when the personnel is better. The Reds still are short on personnel, both on offense and pitching.

The offense is fine if the pitching is there. But the pitching isn't there either in the rotation or the pen. That's the real problem. It's always been the real problem and it simply hasn't been fixed.

Kc61
05-12-2008, 02:01 AM
This is where it would help to do some research. .

I won't respond after this to posts starting with this kind of comment.

Your research proves my point, not yours. If my arithmetic is correct, Dunn, Votto and Griffey are all below .850 OPS against righty pitching. These are the guys you need to kill righty pitching and they aren't doing it. The Astros' top hitter, Berkman, against righty pitching is at 1.255 OPS by comparison.

Your post suggests that the Reds are better with RISP than without men on base. Reds slugging percentange with no men on base is .417, with RISP it's .379.

The Reds' .336 OBP with RISP is not a number the Reds should be proud of. It is 13th in the league. And with RISP the slugging pct is 12th in the league. These numbers do not add up to a winning offense even with a different batting order.

reds44
05-12-2008, 02:06 AM
So the only two guys in the lineup that are "respectable" against LH and RH pitchers are Encarnacion and Votto?

That's comforting. At least they are both young enough where they will be around for awhile.

SteelSD
05-12-2008, 12:46 PM
Your research proves my point, not yours. If my arithmetic is correct, Dunn, Votto and Griffey are all below .850 OPS against righty pitching. These are the guys you need to kill righty pitching and they aren't doing it. The Astros' top hitter, Berkman, against righty pitching is at 1.255 OPS by comparison.

What the numbers show us is that lefties Dunn, Votto, and Griffey are carrying the load versus RHP, with righty Encarnacion pitching in. It's the other RH hitters and Patterson who've been real issues and that trio has gobbled up a major portion of the PA versus RHP at the top of the lineup this season. The idea that the Reds need their best LH hitters to put up 1.200+ OPS numbers versus RHP simply distracts us from the real issue. When one group is doing well and another is performing poorly, the answer isn't to blame the former group for not doing even better.

dabvu2498
05-12-2008, 01:36 PM
What the numbers show us is that lefties Dunn, Votto, and Griffey are carrying the load versus RHP, with righty Encarnacion pitching in.

You forgot Bako. 1.009 OPS vs. RHP thusfar.