View Full Version : This article is right on the money...
05-11-2008, 01:54 PM
05-11-2008, 02:09 PM
I agree with just about everything in that article. Although the reason Bruce isnt in the majors is not his OBP its Griffey and Dunn at the corner spots.
05-11-2008, 02:48 PM
Great to see somebody in the Cincy media getting it right on the batting order.
05-11-2008, 02:50 PM
Dusty don't believe in them dang-ol "statymatisticers"...
50 extra AB's a year belong to speedy CF-ers and SS's - DUH!!
In fact, I think he should change his name to DUHSTY, when it comes to filling out lineups.
At least he put Encarnacion in the cleanup spot last night. That's where he belongs.
Unfortunately DUHSTY's next logical move for BP is to move him into the #3 hole, so that will only off-set an Encarnacion to the #4 hole move. :(
There's just no hope for this offense, as-is, or for the future, with this guy in charge of filling out the lineup card every day.
1 - Votto
2 - Kepp
3 - Dunn
4 - EE
5 - Bruce
6 - BP
7 - CF du jour
8 - C du jour
THAT should be your lineup - unless you've got a .360+ OBP CF-er, then you swap him out with Votto.
Unfortunately DUHSTY's got serious man-love for CF du jour and BP so it's practically upside down from his lineup from 1 to 7.
05-11-2008, 02:51 PM
Great article... doubt Dusty will read.
Patterson at the top of the lineup alone is baseball heresey.
Batting your best contact hitter Kepp behind Dunn might make sense for Dunn's protection. But all its done is allow Kepp to hit single with the catcher and pitcher hitting behind him. It boggles my mind how the Reds have had so many managers but yet none of them can understand Dunn should be batting at the top of the order.
The sad part is even if Dunn and Griffey are gone we will still see the same mistakes from Baker.
05-11-2008, 02:55 PM
AH - and checking today's lineup:
R. Freel CF 0-1
J. Votto 1B 0-1
K. Griffey Jr. RF 0-0
B. Phillips 2B 0-1
E. Encarnacion 3B 0-1
A. Dunn LF 0-1
J. Keppinger SS 1-1
P. Bako C 0-1
J. Cueto P 0-1
Freel deserves to lead-off, he's been hot lately.
Votto in the 2 hole I can live with.
Encarnacion, Dunn, and Keppinger 5-6-7 ?!?!?!? Yeah, our hottest hitter, Kep, in the 7 hole, right where he belongs. Does Keppinger not hit lefties well or ?!?!? Well he's 1-1 with a 2-out single followed up by the Catcher. UGH!!!
Whatever, I seriously can't think about this stuff anymore, or my head will explode.
05-11-2008, 03:11 PM
You're probably right about Dusty not reading it, but maybe Castellini or others in the Reds' management will see it and they'll at least the batting order they're seeing every day.
05-11-2008, 03:38 PM
Good article, and I agree with everything, but as evidence from the re-action of RZ'ers, he is only adds fuel to the fire that lineups are really that important. They are not.
Just look at what he says about Dunn. Move Dunn to the 2 hole, and he has 50 more at bats. With a .380 OBP, that means he will get on base 19 more times during the year, and since runners on base score about 22% of the time, that means around 4 more runs a year. That is good, but really not significant. That really is not going to make much a difference in the number of wins the Reds get, less than half a win, which isn't even worth mentioning.
And it really is even less than that, since the real difference that matters is the one between Dunn in the 2 hole vs. whoever usually is there, and the difference between the Dunn in the 5 hole vs whoever replaces him. I doubt that is as many as runs a year.
Lineups that go through simulations and flow charts show that there is about a 30 run a year difference between the absolute worst lineup and the best, with most, (including Dusty's old school lineups) have a difference of less than 10 runs.
I think Erardi makes his best point with his comments about the Big Red Machine. They left a lot of runners on base, and really didn't hit that well with RISP, but they scored a lot of runs because they all got on base all the time. That is the key to an offense, a high team OBP, not what order they bat in.
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