PDA

View Full Version : Arroyo to Start on Short Rest; Belisle Up in the Air



reds44
05-11-2008, 12:56 PM
ON THE ROTATION: The Reds are listing TBA for Wednesday and Thursday. Bronson Arroyo will likely start on short rest Wednesday. I asked Dusty Baker if Matt Belisle would definitely make his next start: "We haven't discussed it yet. I don't want him walking around here like he's on death row."
Quotes from Fay.

RedsManRick
05-11-2008, 12:58 PM
Now there's a good idea. Take a guy who thought was injured, have him throw 115 pitches, and then bring him back on short rest.

Matt700wlw
05-11-2008, 01:00 PM
Arroyo's been known to do pretty well on short rest...

RedlegJake
05-11-2008, 01:03 PM
Now there's a good idea. Take a guy who thought was injured, have him throw 115 pitches, and then bring him back on short rest.

Makes no sense does it? Just make the decision on Belisle already. If they don't want him in the rotation send him down and bring up Lehr for a game or pitch Affeldt or Fogg for one game until they can get whatever changes they need done. Sounds like Belisle may be finished, though, as a starter.

Screwball
05-11-2008, 01:05 PM
Now there's a good idea. Take a guy who thought was injured, have him throw 115 pitches, and then bring him back on short rest.

Now just what the heck is wrong with that?

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2007/05/18/yeivxrZa.jpg

KronoRed
05-11-2008, 01:11 PM
Now there's a good idea. Take a guy who thought was injured, have him throw 115 pitches, and then bring him back on short rest.

All hail Dustyball.

TOBTTReds
05-11-2008, 01:20 PM
Now there's a good idea. Take a guy who thought was injured, have him throw 115 pitches, and then bring him back on short rest.

If I recall, like Matt said, he is pretty good on short rest. Sure we will see the numbers on Wed.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 01:28 PM
I wouldn't take Arroyo's "success" last night as a sign of turnaround. He was chuckin' and duckin'--and because it was a doubleheader and a long day, Mets hitters were swinging. Two balls that would have been gone in most parks found gloves yesterday because it was played in Shea. I'll give Arroyo credit for throwing strikes and not walking the bases full all day, but don't kid yourself about his effectiveness. He looked the same as any of the other bad starts.

Matt700wlw
05-11-2008, 01:33 PM
I thought his stuff had more stuff to it last night, which is why he was getting people out. Hopefully it continues.

I'm not going to make excuses on why he pitched well...that's stupid.

RedsManRick
05-11-2008, 01:49 PM
I wouldn't take Arroyo's "success" last night as a sign of turnaround. He was chuckin' and duckin'--and because it was a doubleheader and a long day, Mets hitters were swinging. Two balls that would have been gone in most parks found gloves yesterday because it was played in Shea. I'll give Arroyo credit for throwing strikes and not walking the bases full all day, but don't kid yourself about his effectiveness. He looked the same as any of the other bad starts.

He chucked and ducked his way to 9 stikeouts and only 2 walks in 8 IP. Perception is a powerful thing.

You're right, he wasn't much different than the past outings. Last night's start was is the flip side of the exact same coin. The primary difference is that the ball didn't leave the yard and batted balls found fielders. That's really the whole point. Judging a pitcher by the number of earned runs allowed in a single start, or small groups of starts, simply isn't a very good way of evaluating how well he's pitching.

For what it's worth, Arroyo's FIP is at 4.96 on the season. That's one more good outing from being right in line with his career norm.

cincinnati chili
05-11-2008, 01:59 PM
I actually agree with FCB on this one. I don't think Arroyo looked as good as his pitching line from last night suggests, and I think it's really stupid to throw him on 3-days rest after 115 pitches for a game in May.

We have alternatives in triple-A to fill Belisle's spot in the rotation, and as I stated in the recently-revived Belisle thread from the off-season think the guy should have been non-tendered.

guttle11
05-11-2008, 02:05 PM
I've watched everyone of Bronson's starts this year, and while I'm no Dave Duncan, it's obvious he was a step above last night. Especially in the later innings...he was nearly untouchable. But I'm sure the Mets were just tired.

As is custom with all too many Cincy fans, when someone succeeds it's because of factors out of his control. When he fails, it's all his fault.

cumberlandreds
05-11-2008, 02:07 PM
Arroyo's been known to do pretty well on short rest...

Actually, I was thinking the opposite. I'm pretty sure too that when he throws a high number of pitches the next time out he's not nearly as effective. If they don't want to start Belisle they should bring someone up like Lehr or Shearn. They can't do much worse than Belisle.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 02:24 PM
He chucked and ducked his way to 9 stikeouts and only 2 walks in 8 IP. Perception is a powerful thing.

You're right, he wasn't much different than the past outings. Last night's start was is the flip side of the exact same coin. The primary difference is that the ball didn't leave the yard and batted balls found fielders. That's really the whole point. Judging a pitcher by the number of earned runs allowed in a single start, or small groups of starts, simply isn't a very good way of evaluating how well he's pitching.

For what it's worth, Arroyo's FIP is at 4.96 on the season. That's one more good outing from being right in line with his career norm.

If he threw half his starts at Shea, no problem. Arroyo hasn't been unlucky. He's been bad. But I'm certain if he ends the season with 7 + ERA, .875 OPSA, someone will still discover that his FIP 5.00, good enough to be a 5th starter or something. Just as some folks did with Milton.

RedsManRick
05-11-2008, 02:26 PM
If he threw half his starts at Shea, no problem. Arroyo hasn't been unlucky. He's been bad.

If he throws 175 IP or more with an ERA north of 6.00, I'll send you 50 bucks.

Bad and unlucky aren't mutually exclusive. He's certainly not been good. But his luck has made it look worse than it is.

Matt700wlw
05-11-2008, 02:26 PM
Last night he wasn't bad.

Maybe in his next outing, he'll be bad again.

SMcGavin
05-11-2008, 02:30 PM
He chucked and ducked his way to 9 stikeouts and only 2 walks in 8 IP. Perception is a powerful thing.

Yep.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 02:30 PM
If he throws 175 IP or more with an ERA north of 6.00, I'll send you 50 bucks.

He'll get demoted before this happens. In almost all cases, we never see the "really bad" drawn out to infinity. It gets stopped before anyone can truly see where "bad" can go. Well, except for Eric Milton.

BTW, did you watch the game last night?

*BaseClogger*
05-11-2008, 02:35 PM
Belisle should be sent out, but Fogg should be kept in the bullpen. Right... :rolleyes:

lollipopcurve
05-11-2008, 02:47 PM
Arroyo's fastball was better than in several of his previous starts, no doubt. He was throwing fewer curves, and those he threw were almost all from the side. He mixed in a change/slider -- something in the low 80s -- that was effective. I thought it was very encouraging.

RedsManRick
05-11-2008, 02:51 PM
He'll get demoted before this happens. In almost all cases, we never see the "really bad" drawn out to infinity. It gets stopped before anyone can truly see where "bad" can go. Well, except for Eric Milton.

Clearly -- highlight that your prior comment about us (me) making excuses regardless of the evidence was more snark than anything else.

Milton routinely put up HR/9 as a Red around 1.90. Arroyo has been around 1.20 in his Reds career. We have absolutely no reason to believe Arroyo has suddenly turned in to Eric Milton because of 2 poor and 2 disaster starts out of 6.

I understand your basic point. Sometimes pitchers just stink. I've come around on Belisle and Coffey simply being too hittable. I'm not merely out to defend poor pitchers. But I AM against jumping to conclusions on a small amount of data. We need more evidence that Arroyo is actually any different.

Just for reference in this conversation, here's Arroyo's game log.


IP H HR ER SO BB Pitches Strike%
4/2 Diamondbacks 5.0 4 1 2 5 3 94 61%
4/7 Phillies 5.2 9 4 5 6 0 99 65%
4/12 @Pirates 5.0 6 0 2 3 2 102 62%
4/18 Brewers 5.2 8 1 4 4 3 116 57%
4/23 Astros 3.2 10 0 8 5 1 91 58%
4/28 @Cardinals 6.0 6 1 3 6 3 113 54%
5/4 @Braves 1.1 7 1 7 0 1 47 55%
5/10 @Mets 8.0 4 0 1 9 2 115 62%

Another interesting stat with Arroyo is a LOB% of 58.5%, compared to a career rate of 69.%. Only 1 pitcher in the last 3 years has with 100 IP in a season was under 60%. He's simply not stranding batters. Now, you can claim that that is merely indicative of how hard he's being hit -- I wouldn't disagree with that. But I do disagree that we can project his struggles forward. Every pitcher goes through periods of poor pitching. Arroyo has enough of a track record for us to believe he'll regress towards his career norms -- his other peripherals suggest the same.

It's one thing to be critical of poor performances. It's another to be Chicken Little every time it rains. I'll plead guilty to being a bit optimistic when it comes to struggling pitchers. But regardless of natural leanings, we should both be able to take an objective look at the evidence at hand. If you want to me to buy in that Arroyo is toast, you're going to need to do more than continue asserting, referencing Eric Milton ad nauseum, and citing Arroyo's ERA after just 40 IP.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 02:52 PM
Belisle and Cueto to the pen; Bailey promoted (I don't like it one bit, but there are no other options outside of a trade).

Well, whadda you know? That still leaves the team with only 4 starters. What happened to all that pitching depth I heard so much about?

LoganBuck
05-11-2008, 04:56 PM
Is it repetitive to say I don't like Dusty Baker?

What is he thinking? Arroyo makes a decent start, and immediately he has to pitch on short rest? Why not inject Fogg? What good is he to the roster if he doesn't cover the swing man role?

Hollcat
05-11-2008, 05:24 PM
Hmmm, No one speculating that Bailey may get a call up! Did he pitch Saturday or Sunday for Louisville?

Hollcat
05-11-2008, 05:28 PM
No one except FCB that is, I hadn't realized there was a second page when I made my post,

cumberlandreds
05-11-2008, 06:07 PM
Hmmm, No one speculating that Bailey may get a call up! Did he pitch Saturday or Sunday for Louisville?

Could be. He pitched Saturday. So if he stays on rotation I would assume Thursday would be his next scheduled start. So moving up Arroyo would accomodate this. I still don't like it but that may be the reasoning for moving BA up a day.

fearofpopvol1
05-11-2008, 06:17 PM
Bailey is not the answer. He's just had 2 bad starts in a row in AAA. He does look better this season overall, but he's still ready yet IMO.

REDREAD
05-12-2008, 10:39 AM
Is it repetitive to say I don't like Dusty Baker?

What is he thinking? Arroyo makes a decent start, and immediately he has to pitch on short rest? Why not inject Fogg? What good is he to the roster if he doesn't cover the swing man role?

I agree on that.

Put Belisle in the pen. See if he can contribute there. We need to know that to plan for next year.

Fogg actually might become a semi-attractive piece of trade bait if the Reds put him back in the rotation. He's cheap and only has a one year contract.
Now granted, we aren't going to get much for him. In any event, Fogg probably isn't any worse than Belisle.

mbgrayson
05-12-2008, 11:08 AM
Bronson's 2007 game log is HERE (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?statsId=6498&year=2007). Maybe I missed it, but I don't see any games where he went on short (3 days) rest in 2007.

It is interesting to see that some of Arroyo's worst starts came after he threw a lot of pitches the game before. In May last year, Arroyo pitched three games in a row with high pitch counts. (120, 117, 129). In the following four starts, he gave up 6, 6, 8, and 6 earned runs per game.

In 2006, Arroyo started on 3 days rest on August 5th against the Braves. He went 5.2 innings, and gave up 5 earned runs. A month later, he again went on 3 days rest. That day, Sept. 5, he pitched a 9 inning shutout against the Giants.

We will see how it goes. Hopefully, Dusty will keep the pitch count below 110.

lollipopcurve
05-12-2008, 11:10 AM
I think it's a terrible idea. Give Fogg a start, or send out Belisle and bring someone up from the minors for a cameo.

KronoRed
05-12-2008, 01:23 PM
Is it repetitive to say I don't like Dusty Baker?


Never, just like Juan Castro dislike, Dusty dislike never gets old.

RedsBaron
05-12-2008, 01:38 PM
Now there's a good idea. Take a guy who thought was injured, have him throw 115 pitches, and then bring him back on short rest.

It is not that uncommon to ask a starting pitcher to come back on short rest against your primary rival.......oh, wait, that's right, this isn't a game against a divisional rival.....in a critical late season game with the divisional title in the balance....oh yeah, it's just May....and with Arroyo having all winter to rest....oh, yeah, it's just May.....and with a manager who knows how to protect a pitcher's arm.....oh, wait, that's right, the Reds manager is Dusty Baker.

Jpup
05-12-2008, 01:40 PM
I wouldn't take Arroyo's "success" last night as a sign of turnaround. He was chuckin' and duckin'--and because it was a doubleheader and a long day, Mets hitters were swinging. Two balls that would have been gone in most parks found gloves yesterday because it was played in Shea. I'll give Arroyo credit for throwing strikes and not walking the bases full all day, but don't kid yourself about his effectiveness. He looked the same as any of the other bad starts.

He struck out 9 Mets. That is pretty effective.

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 01:44 PM
He struck out 9 Mets. That is pretty effective.

Even Milton K'd high numbers in a handful of starts. And he definitely benefitted from the dimensions of Shea on a couple of occasions.

Look, I hope he's ready for a turnaround, but what I saw from Arroyo the other night didn't look any different from what we've seen all season.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 01:48 PM
Even Milton K'd high numbers in a handful of starts. And he definitely benefitted from the dimensions of Shea on a couple of occasions.

Look, I hope he's ready for a turnaround, but what I saw from Arroyo the other night didn't look any different from what we've seen all season.

You must've been watching a different game (or have not seen Arroyo pitch very much). It's easily the best he's looked all season and easily the best I can remember him looking since early last year. He was hitting the corners, the offspeed stuff was crisp and he had some velocity on his fastball. Even if a couple of the hit balls had gone out, he still would've had a quality start at the very least.

Jpup
05-12-2008, 01:48 PM
Even Milton K'd high numbers in a handful of starts. And he definitely benefitted from the dimensions of Shea on a couple of occasions.

Look, I hope he's ready for a turnaround, but what I saw from Arroyo the other night didn't look any different from what we've seen all season.

When did Milton ever strike out 9 Mets? :confused: Arroyo is hurt IMO.