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RedsManRick
05-11-2008, 03:28 PM
I know this isn't news, but todays game really highlighted perhaps the weakest part of this team -- namely outfield defense. It's not just the ball misplayed that hurts -- it's the extra at bats given to guys when the inning should have been over. Junior's defense led to multiple runs today, both directly and indirectly.

Junior can't run or throw. Freel can run but not always in the right direction. Dunn is always an adventure. Patterson plays a good CF but his craptastic bat more than offsets the gain.

The best way this team can improve it's pitching is fixing that OF defense. If the Reds care about winning this year, the OF defense needs to be fixed.

The Reds are last in baseball this year in team defensive efficiency rating at 67.9% (percentage of balls in play becoming outs) and it's not a result of errors. Reds are middle of the pack with Reached Base due to Error, allowing 15 runners -- values range between 10 and 21.

Between his hitting and fielding, or more precisely the lackthereof, Junior has been a replacement level player this year at best. I know we've got pitching problems, but our defense is exacerbating it allowing extra runners. We're not going to fix the pitching issues until the OF defense in particular is improved.

Will M
05-11-2008, 03:31 PM
I know this isn't news, but todays game really highlighted perhaps the weakest part of this team -- namely outfield defense. It's not just the ball misplayed that hurts -- it's the extra at bats given to guys when the inning should have been over. Junior's defense led to multiple runs today, both directly and indirectly.

Junior can't run or throw. Freel can run but not always in the right direction. Dunn is always an adventure. Patterson plays a good CF but his craptastic bat more than offsets the gain.

The best way this team can improve it's pitching is fixing that OF defense. If the Reds care about winning this year, the OF defense needs to be fixed.

The Reds are last in baseball this year in team defensive efficiency rating at 67.9% (percentage of balls in play becoming outs) and it's not a result of errors. Reds are middle of the pack with Reached Base due to Error, allowing 15 runners -- values range between 10 and 21.

Between his hitting and fielding, or more precisely the lackthereof, Junior has been a replacement level player this year at best. I know we've got pitching problems, but our defense is exacerbating it allowing extra runners. We're not going to fix the pitching issues until the OF defense in particular is improved.

Jay Bruce plays a nice RF.

Red in Chicago
05-11-2008, 03:36 PM
I'm absolutely amazed at how much range he has lost even from last year. And he rarely even bothers to make a throw. The pop in his bat is needed real soon.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 03:39 PM
At this point, we're talking about day-to-day survival with this team; not winning. Keep Patterson in CF every day, and bat him 8th. No one will ever move or demote Griffey to supersub, so just cross your fingers when a ball gets hit out to him.

RedsManRick
05-11-2008, 03:45 PM
At this point, we're talking about day-to-day survival with this team; not winning. Keep Patterson in CF every day, and bat him 8th. No one will ever move or demote Griffey to supersub, so just cross your fingers when a ball gets hit out to him.

I'm not sure I follow. What does survival look like? I've always found a team unwilling to address it's problems as it limps to 75 wins much more demoralizing than an honest attempt to make things better, even if it means fewer wins this year.

I'm not talking about rebuilding, but they need to figure out the right mix -- and Junior isn't part of it. We really need him to hit 3 HR so we can send him on his way.

I wonder if Castellini realizes that his "win now" dictate ironically makes it no easier to win in the short term, while likely making it harder to win in the long run. The longer this year's "now" goes on, the harder it's going to be in next year's "now".

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 03:46 PM
I'm not sure I follow. What does survival look like? I've always found a team unwilling to address it's problems as it limps to 75 wins much more demoralizing than an honest attempt to make things better, even if it means fewer wins this year.

I'm not talking about rebuilding, but they need to figure out the right mix -- and Junior isn't part of it. We really need him to hit 3 HR so we can send him on his way.

I wonder if Castellini realizes that his "win now" dictate ironically makes it more difficult to win in the long term and no easier to win in the short term.

No one wants Griffey. The only thing they can do is release him and pay him to sit at home, or on another team's bench.

Chip R
05-11-2008, 03:58 PM
Keep Patterson in CF every day, and bat him 8th.


CF bats leadoff.

LoganBuck
05-11-2008, 05:06 PM
Keep Patterson in CF every day, and bat him 8th.

Just release Patterson, replacement level production would be a VAST improvement.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 05:07 PM
Just release Patterson, replacement level production would be a VAST improvement.

Good luck finding a CF.

I know who needs to be released, but it's not going to happen.

If your point was "they should never have traded Denorfia for McBeth," I'd be right there with you. But that's blood under the bridge. As it stands, there's only one plus CF in this team's system and his name is Patterson, for better or worse.

guttle11
05-11-2008, 05:11 PM
Good luck finding a CF.

I know who needs to be released, but it's not going to happen.

I can find a CF that will play virtually the same defense and probably hit just as poorly in less than 1 second. Chris Dickerson.

Cyclone792
05-11-2008, 05:20 PM
I can find a CF that will play virtually the same defense and probably hit just as poorly in less than 1 second. Chris Dickerson.

Heck, Dickerson would probably have an on-base percentage 50 points higher than Patterson. Then again that still isn't saying much when Patterson's on-base percentage is only .252.

Here's one of my favorite lines so far this season: Corey Patterson's line in his last 28 days is .150/.215/.217/.432 over 66 total plate appearances. I think one of the goals I'm looking forward to this season is Patterson getting 510 PAs while posting a .250 on-base percentage.

reds44
05-11-2008, 05:24 PM
Dickerson would be hitting better than Patterson right now, and he can play defense just as well.

But Patterson is one of Dusty's dude's and is making $3 mil. You'll see plenty of Dickerson and Bruce by the end of the year, though.

Red in Chicago
05-11-2008, 05:29 PM
Heck, Dickerson would probably have an on-base percentage 50 points higher than Patterson. Then again that still isn't saying much when Patterson's on-base percentage is only .252.

Here's one of my favorite lines so far this season: Corey Patterson's line in his last 28 days is .150/.215/.217/.432 over 66 total plate appearances. I think one of the goals I'm looking forward to this season is Patterson getting 510 PAs while posting a .250 on-base percentage.

There is nothing that the dude won't swing at. Last week was the first time I've seen him live and in person since his Chicago days. I was amazed at how bad that stroke has become. Didn't like the guy in a Cubs uni, really dislike him in a Reds uni. The "d" is still there, but the entire outfield needs an overhaul real quick.

Kc61
05-11-2008, 05:38 PM
How about the following in-depth analysis of the problem:

The Reds need a new outfield. Period. Or at least two new members of that outfield.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 06:38 PM
Bring up Dickerson; he'll OPS in the same neighborhood as Patt. for MLB minimum. Then they can swallow another contract.

guttle11
05-11-2008, 07:39 PM
Bring up Dickerson; he'll OPS in the same neighborhood as Patt. for MLB minimum. Then they can swallow another contract.

Better than choking on it...

It's only a one year deal. Cut him, swallow the deal, and flush it down a few hours later. They're really only eating Dickerson's salary, not Patterson's.

reds44
05-11-2008, 07:52 PM
Bring up Dickerson; he'll OPS in the same neighborhood as Patt. for MLB minimum. Then they can swallow another contract.
I honestly wonder how awful Patterson's OPS is after the first 2 weeks. I'd be shocked if it was over .550.

Cyclone792
05-11-2008, 07:57 PM
I honestly wonder how awful Patterson's OPS is after the first 2 weeks. I'd be shocked if it was over .550.

Since April 10th: .143/.211/.214/.425

Raisor
05-11-2008, 07:58 PM
Since April 10th: .143/.211/.214/.425

That's strong.

reds44
05-11-2008, 07:58 PM
Since April 10th: .143/.211/.214/.425
Yeah, Dickerson can out do that. Drew Stubbs could hit better than that right now (and no, I'm not saying bring him up).

*BaseClogger*
05-11-2008, 07:59 PM
Surely he makes up for it defensively... ;)

37red
05-11-2008, 08:24 PM
Cyclone, what are the numbers on Freel and why don't you want him playing?

bucksfan2
05-11-2008, 08:30 PM
I think the ball between Jr. and Freel was more Freel's problem than Jr's. It really looked like Jr had the angle on the ball and Freel called him off. As poor as Jr's defense has been if he gets to a ball he catches it. Jr got to the ball but Freel was about to lay out to attempt the catch.

As good of a table setter Freel can be his outfield defense is a major liability. He doesn't get good jumps on the ball and today turned a lazy fly ball into an all out dash to catch the ball due to his bad break. My major problem with Freel is that he is the captain of the outfield. When he calls a ball it is his. There are too many times when he is out of place of flying trying to catch a ball where he makes the play more difficult. I don't mind him as a defensive substitute in left but him in CF is a recipe for disaster.

Raisor
05-11-2008, 09:17 PM
Since April 10th: .143/.211/.214/.425

Just to show just how bad this is...

Reds pitchers: .130/.155/.145/.300

Cyclone792
05-11-2008, 09:25 PM
Cyclone, what are the numbers on Freel and why don't you want him playing?

I probably would play Freel, and I'd try like heck to trade him in the process.

Dickerson's name has been brought up because he's an interesting comp with Patterson. It's quite likely that Dickerson is a better ballplayer than Patterson; he'll play defense just as well and he'd get on base at a higher clip. But instead of the Reds recognizing that fact, they instead elect to waste $3 million on a guy like Patterson.

Cyclone792
05-11-2008, 09:26 PM
Just to show just how bad this is...

Reds pitchers: .130/.155/.145/.300

Yup, and I actually think NL pitchers as a whole are OPS'ing .375.

Having Patterson in the lineup is like having two pitchers in the lineup. I wonder if Volquez can play center field? If so, maybe stick him out there on his off days and we might get a slight boost with the offense. ;)

KronoRed
05-11-2008, 09:28 PM
Since April 10th: .143/.211/.214/.425

Who likes the smell of taking 3 million dollars covering it with lighter fluid and striking a match?

I know I do.

reds44
05-11-2008, 09:32 PM
Who likes the smell of taking 3 million dollars covering it with lighter fluid and striking a match?

I know I do.
If given the shot, Krivsky would have got it back when he traded Hatteberg.

:D

Highlifeman21
05-11-2008, 09:43 PM
I think the ball between Jr. and Freel was more Freel's problem than Jr's. It really looked like Jr had the angle on the ball and Freel called him off. As poor as Jr's defense has been if he gets to a ball he catches it. Jr got to the ball but Freel was about to lay out to attempt the catch.

As good of a table setter Freel can be his outfield defense is a major liability. He doesn't get good jumps on the ball and today turned a lazy fly ball into an all out dash to catch the ball due to his bad break. My major problem with Freel is that he is the captain of the outfield. When he calls a ball it is his. There are too many times when he is out of place of flying trying to catch a ball where he makes the play more difficult. I don't mind him as a defensive substitute in left but him in CF is a recipe for disaster.

I was at the game today sitting directly behind home plate in the loge level, and Castillo's triple looked like Griffey got in Freel's way. Freel looked to get a decent jump on the ball, and seemed to react fairly well to it (at least by Freel's standards), and Griffey simply got in the way. Griffey seemed to get a late break on the ball, and since he can't run anymore didn't look like he had a chance to get to the ball, but in the process only achieved the goal of preventing Freel from catching the ball. I didn't see Freel call Griffey off.

RedsManRick
05-11-2008, 09:55 PM
I was at the game today sitting directly behind home plate in the loge level, and Castillo's triple looked like Griffey got in Freel's way. Freel looked to get a decent jump on the ball, and seemed to react fairly well to it (at least by Freel's standards), and Griffey simply got in the way. Griffey seemed to get a late break on the ball, and since he can't run anymore didn't look like he had a chance to get to the ball, but in the process only achieved the goal of preventing Freel from catching the ball. I didn't see Freel call Griffey off.

On TV, it looked like Griffey had a beat on it -- then as Freel entered the picture, Junior peeled off. To me, it looked like Junior gave up on it because he figured Freel had it. Freel meanwhile didn't have a chance at it but was going 100% because he's insane and that's what he does.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2008, 10:59 PM
Since April 10th: .143/.211/.214/.425

I'd be curious to know Griffey's numbers in the same span.

Cyclone792
05-12-2008, 06:15 AM
I'd be curious to know Griffey's numbers in the same span.

Griffey since April 10th: .231/.284/.343/.647

Far East
05-12-2008, 08:31 AM
Jay Bruce plays a nice RF.
Josh Hamilton plays a nice CF!:deadhorse

bucksfan2
05-12-2008, 08:42 AM
I was at the game today sitting directly behind home plate in the loge level, and Castillo's triple looked like Griffey got in Freel's way. Freel looked to get a decent jump on the ball, and seemed to react fairly well to it (at least by Freel's standards), and Griffey simply got in the way. Griffey seemed to get a late break on the ball, and since he can't run anymore didn't look like he had a chance to get to the ball, but in the process only achieved the goal of preventing Freel from catching the ball. I didn't see Freel call Griffey off.

On TV Griffey pulled up just short of the ball. It was weird because the angle looked like he could have stuck his glove out and caught the ball. I know Jr is a shell of his former self in the outfield but I give him the benefit of the doubt on that call. If he can get to the ball he will catch the ball. It was just an odd play because Jr probably would have slid to catch the ball and he it looked like he stopped and you saw Freel lay out.

Chip R
05-12-2008, 09:00 AM
Maybe Jr. saw Freel coming and he didn't want Freel to torpedo him.

lollipopcurve
05-12-2008, 09:06 AM
On TV Griffey pulled up just short of the ball. It was weird because the angle looked like he could have stuck his glove out and caught the ball. I know Jr is a shell of his former self in the outfield but I give him the benefit of the doubt on that call. If he can get to the ball he will catch the ball. It was just an odd play because Jr probably would have slid to catch the ball and he it looked like he stopped and you saw Freel lay out.

Guys are wary of Freel. Still, I think Griffey should have had the ball, and a faster RF would have had no trouble getting there.

Combine the defensive weakness on the corners with the lack of slugging there, and I think we're looking at the soft white underbelly of this team. Add to that that Griffey and Dunn are the alpha males on the club, and, well, the recipe is lacking.

Griff is sliding and always injury prone. Dunn is Dunn, and looking more like the 06 version than the 07 version so far. He is as good as he's going to get. It's hard for me to see the sense in trying to build around these guys any more, especially with Bruce knocking on the door.

Far East
05-12-2008, 09:08 AM
I can find a CF that will play virtually the same defense and probably hit just as poorly in less than 1 second. Chris Dickerson.

Dickerson's AAA line: .252 BA, .349 OBP, .342 SLG, .691 OPS

37red
05-12-2008, 09:28 AM
I've watched each of them and feel management is putting them out there day to day because they're popular, and they are. When anyone discusses Dunn it's like burning that 3 million dollars and the world crashes in. Freel can cover a lot of ground out there and if he had two other good out fielders on either side he wouldn't have to cover as much. No one is going to see Grif or Dunn taken off the field, I just look at it as part of that soft belly. Too bad they're as slow as I am.

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 09:34 AM
Guys are wary of Freel. Still, I think Griffey should have had the ball, and a faster RF would have had no trouble getting there.

Combine the defensive weakness on the corners with the lack of slugging there, and I think we're looking at the soft white underbelly of this team. Add to that that Griffey and Dunn are the alpha males on the club, and, well, the recipe is lacking.

Griff is sliding and always injury prone. Dunn is Dunn, and looking more like the 06 version than the 07 version so far. He is as good as he's going to get. It's hard for me to see the sense in trying to build around these guys any more, especially with Bruce knocking on the door.

I have no problem with turning the page on Griffey and Dunn, but they're going to need a lot more than Bruce to reignite this offense (Bruce is going to come nowhere NEAR Dunn's OB%, and it's not like this team's OB% is good to begin with). With any luck, Jocketty can turn Dunn into young offense at the deadline.

lollipopcurve
05-12-2008, 09:46 AM
I have no problem with turning the page on Griffey and Dunn, but they're going to need a lot more than Bruce to reignite this offense (Bruce is going to come nowhere NEAR Dunn's OB%, and it's not like this team's OB% is good to begin with). With any luck, Jocketty can turn Dunn into young offense at the deadline.

True. But if Bruce can provide more offense than Griffey has (not hard), and they can find a defensively capable platoon in LF that is plus-800 OPS, you're improving the offense in 2 spots (judging by Dunn's current numbers) and upgrading the defense.

mbgrayson
05-12-2008, 10:29 AM
Ken Griffey Jr. fielding stats:
2007 RF(range factor)=2.29
2008 RF=1.99
2007 ZR(zone rating)=.868
2008 ZR=.853

Adam Dunn fielding stats:
2007 RF=1.88
2008 RF=1.70
2007 ZR=.846
2008 ZR=.855

Ryan Freel CF fielding stats:
2007 RF=2.82
2008 RF=2.78
2007 ZR=.843
2008 ZR=.900

Corey Patterson fielding stats:
2007 RF=2.46
2008 RF=2.61
2007 ZR=.885
2008 ZR=.905

Josh Hamilton CF fielding stats:
2007 RF=2.82
2008 RF=2.16
2007 ZR=.887
2008 ZR=.905


These stats are from ESPN web site. "RF: Range Factor ((PO + A) * 9 divided by innings) ZR: Zone rating. The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc."

Highlifeman21
05-12-2008, 11:57 AM
Ken Griffey Jr. fielding stats:
2007 RF(range factor)=2.29
2008 RF=1.99
2007 ZR(zone rating)=.868
2008 ZR=.853

Adam Dunn fielding stats:
2007 RF=1.88
2008 RF=1.70
2007 ZR=.846
2008 ZR=.855

Ryan Freel CF fielding stats:
2007 RF=2.82
2008 RF=2.78
2007 ZR=.843
2008 ZR=.900

Corey Patterson fielding stats:
2007 RF=2.46
2008 RF=2.61
2007 ZR=.885
2008 ZR=.905

Josh Hamilton CF fielding stats:
2007 RF=2.82
2008 RF=2.16
2007 ZR=.887
2008 ZR=.905


These stats are from ESPN web site. "RF: Range Factor ((PO + A) * 9 divided by innings) ZR: Zone rating. The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc."

Are those stats saying Freel's a better defensive OF than Patterson?

B/c if so, then we can throw those stats out the window and consider them bunk.

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 12:47 PM
I'd guess if Walt doesn't trade EdE outright that he'll move him to LF when Dunn's traded. He'll then get a strong defender at 3rd. I think he'll get a good replacement at catcher, too. Bruce in right, EdE in left, and some flycatcher in center will likely complete the picture. This, of course, happens next offseason or at midseason.

TRF
05-12-2008, 01:55 PM
On TV, it looked like Griffey had a beat on it -- then as Freel entered the picture, Junior peeled off. To me, it looked like Junior gave up on it because he figured Freel had it. Freel meanwhile didn't have a chance at it but was going 100% because he's insane and that's what he does.
I looked at that play something like 10 times. Freel was as responsible for that as Jr.

Are those stats saying Freel's a better defensive OF than Patterson?

B/c if so, then we can throw those stats out the window and consider them bunk.

even if he's not as good defensively, and he's not. his bat is something on the magnitude of 100 times better.

yeah, the two responses offset each other, but one is micro, the other macro. Right now I play Freel everyday at the top of the lineup. He has to NOT hit his way out of it. And I hope for a suitable trading partner.

Will M
05-12-2008, 01:59 PM
what i would like to see is a team that is at least acceptable at all positions and above average at the three most important fielding positions ( SS,C,CF ).
for example - Jr goes as does Dunn. No Javy or Ross behind the plate.

1B - Votto looks quite good here. (grade = B)
2B - Phillips (A-)
SS - The only shortstop we have who grades A or B is Janisch. I really like Kep but he is a 2B/3B who can play short in a pinch. He doesn't have the range to be above average here (C-). Gonzo's D was also overrated (C-)
3B - EE so far is a (D). I know he COULD be a B but he continues to struggle with his throws. I am in the camp that says move him to LF.
LF - Dunn (F)
RF - Griffey (F) & Bruce (B)
CF - we really need a centerfielder of the future. Patterson is an (A) but can't hit. Freel IMO is a (C) in center and a (B) in RF/LF. He seems to get bad jumps/run bad routes in CF. Bruce would likely be a (C) in center (speculation)
C - Bako is a (C) but no one expects him to keep it up with the bat. Ross is a (C-) and Javy an (F).

As we move towards 'the re-rebuilding for 2009/2010' I see:
1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
SS - Janish's job IF he can hit .250. I'd like to see him here mid season and see if he can hit at all.
3B - EE's job IF ( big IF ) he can throw. Otherwise Kep here and EE in left.
Rosales is a dark horse here.
LF - EE
CF - ?
Rf - Bruce
C - ?

Lineup goes something like:
CF - ?
3B - Keppinger
1B - Votto(L)
LF - EE
RF - Bruce(L)
2B - Phillips
C - ?
SS- Janish

This is a fantasy I know. Find a centerfielder and a catcher who can play plus defense and hit a little bit. However, looking at the above lineup we do have the 5 'offensive' positions covered with some pretty good sticks.
We don't need Eric Davis, Barry Larkin and Johnny Bench to play the other positions. We need players who can play some good/great D like those Reds greats and hit a little.

REDREAD
05-12-2008, 03:39 PM
On TV, it looked like Griffey had a beat on it -- then as Freel entered the picture, Junior peeled off. To me, it looked like Junior gave up on it because he figured Freel had it. Freel meanwhile didn't have a chance at it but was going 100% because he's insane and that's what he does.

Jr probably figured it wasn't worth losing life or limb when the Freel machine was going forward at full speed.. With age comes wisdom :)

REDREAD
05-12-2008, 03:46 PM
I'd guess if Walt doesn't trade EdE outright that he'll move him to LF when Dunn's traded. He'll then get a strong defender at 3rd. I think he'll get a good replacement at catcher, too. Bruce in right, EdE in left, and some flycatcher in center will likely complete the picture. This, of course, happens next offseason or at midseason.

I almost wonder though if the Reds would be better off trading EdE to a team that thinks he's adequate at 3b or doesn't mind a project.
IMO, as soon as the team concedes EdE is a LF, he loses a lot of value.

I'm kind of torn on EdE. He's a streaky hitter. He's a streaky defender. As a rebuilding club, I'm inclined to give him more time at 3b. It's easier to find a LF than a 3b.

In any event, it seems like EdE is one of the few younger trading chips that the Reds are willing to trade. Although Walt may surprise us and trade a young guy that we consider untouchable.

I'm still of the opinion that the Reds need to resign Dunn. If they let Jr go after this season, they are going to have to come up with 1 OF to go along with Bruce. It's a little too much to ask to expect the Reds to come up with 2 good OF in one offseason while keeping most of their prospects.

OnBaseMachine
05-12-2008, 04:39 PM
Good post RMR.

It's painful watching the Reds outfield defense, most notably Griffey. It's amazing how much range he has lost. I cringe whenever a ball is hit to right field. I can't even begin to count how many bloop hits have landed in RF this year, or the amount of routine flyballs turned into doubles/triples. That play in the first inning yesterday was painful. At worst it should have been 1-0 after one inning instead of 3-0. I love the guy but I look forward to when Jay Bruce replaces him in RF.

OnBaseMachine
05-12-2008, 09:39 PM
Outfield defense cost the Reds two more runs tonight as Griffey let a routine flyball pop out of his glove and two runs scored. Next batter hit another flyball to Griffey and it once again popped out of his glove before he grabbed it with his bare hand to save three runs. He's just painful to watch out there.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-12-2008, 09:46 PM
I probably would play Freel, and I'd try like heck to trade him in the process.

Dickerson's name has been brought up because he's an interesting comp with Patterson. It's quite likely that Dickerson is a better ballplayer than Patterson; he'll play defense just as well and he'd get on base at a higher clip. But instead of the Reds recognizing that fact, they instead elect to waste $3 million on a guy like Patterson.


Yep. Dickerson in CF and Mackanin as manager would save this club 6M+ a year and they arguably would be no worse than they are now.


I'll be thinking of that when they tell us they can't afford Dunn at 15-16 M per year (a 2-3 M raise from this year) and let him walk.

AmarilloRed
05-12-2008, 09:56 PM
Any trade of Junior would have him as DH; he would hurt any other team with his outfield defense the way he is hurting ours

TeamBoone
05-13-2008, 01:28 AM
Outfield defense cost the Reds two more runs tonight as Griffey let a routine flyball pop out of his glove and two runs scored. Next batter hit another flyball to Griffey and it once again popped out of his glove before he grabbed it with his bare hand to save three runs. He's just painful to watch out there.

But you have to admit, that's uncharacteristic of Jr. He may have lost his range, but when they're catachable within his range, he usualy does it.

He must have been having an ultra bad night. Perhaps his friend's funeral was today? I don't know, but that has to be a distraction.

mth123
05-13-2008, 03:50 AM
I think tonight was just an extension of the "2 step rule" that has seemed to be the way Griffey plays defense for years now. IMO, its almost automatic that on any ball hit in front of Griffey, no matter how catchable, he moves in 2 steps and then pulls up and plays it on a hop. Tonight we saw why. To his credit, he went all out and came in 5 or 6 steps on the ball hit tonight. We saw the results. He was out of control and the ball popped out. I'm guessing his legs cause him to have a tough time slowing down and getting back under control after going all out for one. I'm also guessing its why he seems to pull up on balls that are catchable, because when he charges hard, stuff happens like tonight. It sure looks that way. IMO its very sad to see such an all time great reduced to what Griffey is. He needs to be a DH. He became Gates Brown a few years ago and if he stays on an NL team he needs to be used as a power LH bench bat. Sure he'll need to get an occassional start to keep him sharp, but day in day out he just can't be out there killing the pitching staff.

The obvious damage is the extra baserunners and the runs that it creates. The bigger cost, IMO, is the extra work that the pitching staff has to do. I wonder what effect that has on guys who seem to go through periods of being worn down, like Arroyo seems to, and fear what it may mean later in the year (with potentially lasting effects) for a guy like Cueto. I also wonder how many extra miles it puts on the pen because the late baserunner that shouldn't exist automatically gets some one up and throwing when they would be sitting normally. IMO its gotten to the point that Griffey's bat can't make up for the damage no matter how well he hits. His current power outage just makes the need for a change more obvious.

Kc61
05-13-2008, 02:22 PM
So consider the following pitching stats. The Reds are now next to last in team ERA in the National League.

The Reds have allowed 17 more hits than the average NL team.

The Reds have allowed 8 more homers than average.
The Reds have allowed 12 more doubles than average.
The Reds have allowed 2 fewer triples than average.
The Reds have allowed 1 fewer single than average.

The homers, in part, are GABP related. Easy park for homers. It stands to reason the Reds would be worse than average in this department.

But why have the Reds allowed 12 more doubles than the average NL team? Bad pitching or bad outfield defense? Shouldn't GABP, a relatively small ballpark, give up fewer doubles?

Not sure of the answers, but I'm wondering if this is a reflection of poor outfield defense.

*BaseClogger*
05-13-2008, 03:00 PM
So consider the following pitching stats. The Reds are now next to last in team ERA in the National League.

The Reds have allowed 17 more hits than the average NL team.

The Reds have allowed 8 more homers than average.
The Reds have allowed 12 more doubles than average.
The Reds have allowed 2 fewer triples than average.
The Reds have allowed 1 fewer single than average.

The homers, in part, are GABP related. Easy park for homers. It stands to reason the Reds would be worse than average in this department.

But why have the Reds allowed 12 more doubles than the average NL team? Bad pitching or bad outfield defense? Shouldn't GABP, a relatively small ballpark, give up fewer doubles?

Not sure of the answers, but I'm wondering if this is a reflection of poor outfield defense.

Very interesting and a great observation... :thumbup:

flyer85
05-13-2008, 03:03 PM
Shouldn't GABP, a relatively small ballpark, give up fewer doubles?it turns triples into doubles. In a lot of parks a ball up the RC gap is a triple ... it rarely is in GABP.

Kc61
05-13-2008, 03:49 PM
it turns triples into doubles. In a lot of parks a ball up the RC gap is a triple ... it rarely is in GABP.

Ok. But shouldn't GABP similarly turn some doubles into singles? If you have the outfielders who can cut the ball off?

I don't have the stats handy but the Reds high "doubles against" total is heavily weighted toward the road. I believe they are very high on the list of doubles allowed on the road. I just continue to wonder if lack of speed in left and right field is partially responsible.

Then again, Arroyo, Cueto, Belisle and Fogg haven't exactly been lights out. So maybe it's just the pitching.

Probably both factors come into play.

PuffyPig
05-13-2008, 05:44 PM
Ok. But shouldn't GABP similarly turn some doubles into singles? If you have the outfielders who can cut the ball off?



GABP isn't smaller left to right, so the alleys are just the same size. It should have no effect on doubles, other than certain HR's hit at GABP would be doubles (or outs) elsewhere.

*BaseClogger*
05-13-2008, 08:46 PM
GABP isn't smaller left to right, so the alleys are just the same size. It should have no effect on doubles, other than certain HR's hit at GABP would be doubles (or outs) elsewhere.

Do triples turn to doubles?

RedsManRick
05-13-2008, 09:00 PM
Ok. But shouldn't GABP similarly turn some doubles into singles? If you have the outfielders who can cut the ball off?

If the fielders are cutting the ball off, then the size of the park never comes in to play. It's when the ball gets past the fielders and the distance the ball travels is bounded by the fence when park size comes in to play.

The Reds 3-Year Park Factors for various hit types looks like this... 100 is average.
All Hits: 101
Doubles: 104
Triples: 58
Homers: 127

The reason the Reds allow a ton of doubles is because they have immobile corner OF who can't cut balls off -- not because of their park. They have problems allowing doubles relative to the park itself everywhere. Those deep fly balls which tend to turn in to triples, mostly to RF, clear the fence in Cincy.

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/03/mlb_park_factor.html

Rojo
05-13-2008, 11:01 PM
So consider the following pitching stats. The Reds are now next to last in team ERA in the National League.

The Reds have allowed 17 more hits than the average NL team.

The Reds have allowed 8 more homers than average.
The Reds have allowed 12 more doubles than average.
The Reds have allowed 2 fewer triples than average.
The Reds have allowed 1 fewer single than average.

The homers, in part, are GABP related. Easy park for homers. It stands to reason the Reds would be worse than average in this department.

But why have the Reds allowed 12 more doubles than the average NL team? Bad pitching or bad outfield defense? Shouldn't GABP, a relatively small ballpark, give up fewer doubles?

Not sure of the answers, but I'm wondering if this is a reflection of poor outfield defense.

The picture painted above is even worse when you consider Reds pitchers lead the world in strikeouts.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 08:51 AM
The picture painted above is even worse when you consider Reds pitchers lead the world in strikeouts.

I have a sneaking suspicion that you'll see a dropoff in the strikeout totals of the team as Volquez and Cueto face the uphill charge of facing the league a second time around. I think this team's K totals are a bit artificially inflated by the introduction of two brand new high-octane arms; the learning curve can be brutal, however.

VR
05-14-2008, 09:04 AM
so...... our outfielders turn their doubles into singles, and the opponents singles into doubles. That can't be good.

Rojo
05-14-2008, 12:21 PM
I have a sneaking suspicion that you'll see a dropoff in the strikeout totals of the team as Volquez and Cueto face the uphill charge of facing the league a second time around. I think this team's K totals are a bit artificially inflated by the introduction of two brand new high-octane arms; the learning curve can be brutal, however.

Sure. But that doesn't change the fact that the defense is even worse than it first appears.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 12:23 PM
Sure. But that doesn't change the fact that the defense is even worse than it first appears.

Right--as the young kid pitchers rely more on their defense to get outs, it could--and likely will--become even uglier.