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flyer85
05-12-2008, 11:55 AM
about where they have been in recent years in terms of pitching(15th ion the NL in ERA) ... both the starting and relief pitching is a problem. As usual the Reds pen seems chock full of middle relievers with the exception of Cordero.

Could sending Belisle and Cueto to the pen help to stabilize it?

What should be done with Fogg?

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 12:01 PM
Wait, wait, wait. I thought the pitching was the bright spot? Hold the phone. You're telling me the *pitching's* the problem?

I'd NEVER have guessed. :)

flyer85
05-12-2008, 12:07 PM
Wait, wait, wait. I thought the pitching was the bright spot? Hold the phone. You're telling me the *pitching's* the problem?

I'd NEVER have guessed. :)there have been some very bright spots(Harang, Volquez, Cordero), all the more reason to be disappointed in the overall results.

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 12:09 PM
there have been some very bright spots(Harang, Volquez, Cordero), all the more reason to be disappointed in the overall results.

Virtually every Reds team in the last 8 years has had some pitching bright spots, despite the moaning about how bad the past was and how good the present is.

The problem is the Reds think they have the problem solved way too often. This team has bad pitching, and until they have too much pitching, they won't have enough.

flyer85
05-12-2008, 12:13 PM
The problem is the Reds think they have the problem solved way too often. This team has bad pitching, and until they have too much pitching, they won't have enough.the Red have never had nearly enough quality arms to have been even close to solving the problem. A bunch of soft tossing sinker-slider types in never a solution.

Currently the have Belisle in the rotation who simply has no track record of being a good starter, however, he has a quality arm that might play very well in the pen.

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 12:14 PM
the Red have never had nearly enough quality arms to have been even close to solving the problem. A bunch of soft tossing sinker-slider types in never a solution.

Currently the have Belisle in the rotation who simply has no track record of being a good starter, however, he has a quality arm that might play very well in the pen.

I have little doubt that Belisle and Cueto would help in the pen. But that's putting a band-aid on cancer.

The Reds had their shot this offseason--Bedard and Haren were there for the taking.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 12:49 PM
Something bothers me when we talk about how bad the pitching is. Yes it is much less than desirable now, yes something sound and wise needs to be done about the pitching.

Yet, there was a point when this staff was pitching fairly decent, the starting and bullpen staff was showing encouraging progress early and we see remnants of that now and then still.

During that time we witnessed a lot of runners left on base, low scoring affairs, calling those a lack of run support, we even complained about a lack of hitting with runners in scoring position and defensive lapses. How much of that early foundation laid by the fielding lapses and offensive deficiencies‘, and that area still has problems, how much of that has and is adversely taking its toll on the pitching?

What bothers me is the question of cause and effect.

How much of the previous offensive and defensive short comings led to the coaching staff and pitchers making adjustments in an attempt to over compensate to cover the deficit type defense and offense? Which could have led certain pitchers to make erroneous changes, to over throw, to try to be too fine, or a negative mental adjustment. Did the staff and catchers get away from calling the type of games that they were calling for the pitchers early on in an attempt to, for a lack of better words, to pitch 7 shut out innings, versus staying with what brought them and accomplished the level of success that they were experiencing?

How much does a weak offense or bad defense stress the pitching and coaching to try to do something that they can’t and then really snow ball and compound the problems?

If the defense and offense would have been there, would the pitching have been more confident and relaxed and exhibited better results in the present?

Harang has pitched well, as well as we would hope or would believe that a Bedard and Haren would and still the results for Harang, though he has pitched well, is not what we had hoped for or expected to date.


I don’t know, but I can’t help but wonder if the bad defense and poor offense has led to an increase in poor pitching vs. what we were seeing early on from the pitching.

Highlifeman21
05-12-2008, 12:55 PM
I thought the Reds were deep in pitching now?

Hmm, I must have thought wrong. My mistake.

PuffyPig
05-12-2008, 01:09 PM
the Red have never had nearly enough quality arms to have been even close to solving the problem. A bunch of soft tossing sinker-slider types in never a solution.



The Reds pitchers currently lead the majors in strike outs, so it's not a bunch of soft tossers out there.

The current crop might not be (collectively) getting the job done, but there is more potential there than past years.

Bedard and Haren were not he answer, as we were never get more than one of them. And if we got one, it's unlikely that the Hamilton/Volquez trade would not have been made, so there wouldn't have been much of a net gain anyway.

Our main problem with preventing runs is likely the defense. The Reds are currently last in the league in turning balls hit into play into outs. 32.6% of balls hit into play are baserunners against us, with a major league average of about 29.6%. That's a big burden for the pitchers to shoulder. How many balls are hit to RF that Griffey doesn't come close to that should probaly be easily caught? Keppinger's range is no-existent. Dunn is Dunn. Until our defense improves, it's going to be hard to expect the pitching to improve that much. It's lucky that we are getting so many K's.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 01:11 PM
I thought the Reds were deep in pitching now?

Hmm, I must have thought wrong. My mistake.

I don't know.

I do know that they are not deep in defense or offense.

I have read a lot of complaints about the defensive lapses, I have read even more about the offense not being what the fans would appreciate seeing from this team.

What does a Harang have to do to get a few wins under his belt? Have the other pitchers tasted or witnessed what Harang has, are pitchers doing something that they shouldn't be leading to tossing themselves into the dumpster in an attempt to carry a team that lacks defense and offense?

Of course I am not refering to a Fogg, Coffee, or a struggling Arroyo, though something has seemingly spread to almost the entire pitching staff.

Joseph
05-12-2008, 01:16 PM
The Reds are deeper in pitching TALENT now, but short on results.

When 3/5s of your rotation have ERAs nearly 6 or above though, you are not going to be a good team.

I'd push Belisle to the pen, bring up Lehr or Bailey, cut Fogg.

If Cueto can't keep it together, and he's looking shaky at best, then you bring up the other of Lehr/Bailey and send Cueto down, or send Belisle down and move him [Cueto] to the pen.

It won't win the division this year, but it'll help get things online.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 01:20 PM
Our main problem with preventing runs is likely the defense. The Reds are currently last in the league in turning balls hit into play into outs. 32.6% of balls hit into play are baserunners against us, with a major league average of about 29.6%. That's a big burden for the pitchers to shoulder. How many balls are hit to RF that Griffey doesn't come close to that should probaly be easily caught? Keppinger's range is no-existent. Dunn is Dunn. Until our defense improves, it's going to be hard to expect the pitching to improve that much. It's lucky that we are getting so many K's.

Well said and supported, I can't question this.

I do think the one positive, the strikeouts might even be a small problem, they have to throw more pitches to have all those strikeouts versus a fly ball or ground out that the defense just might muff and has or couldn't even get to when the should have. Even the corner outfielders arms are in question, along with the occasional throw from third base.

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 01:26 PM
And if we got one, it's unlikely that the Hamilton/Volquez trade would not have been made, so there wouldn't have been much of a net gain anyway.


This is likely not true at all. There was no reason whatsoever that the Reds couldn't have acquired Volquez and one of Bedard/Haren.

And having 60% competence in the rotation is usually the tipping point for maintaining some semblance of stability. 40% (what the Reds currently have) will never cut it. That still leaves one spot to fill, but one spot can usually be patchworked without overstressing the pen; it's when you have to get creative with two or three spots that things get ugly.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 01:35 PM
I think Affeldt has been a bright spot too. The dude has been solid. But, Harang, Volquez, Cordero and Affeldt is simply not enough.

Also, yeah the Reds could have acquired Haren or Bedard, but we really don't know exactly what both the teams on the other end wanted. We heard Bruce, we heard Cueto...but we don't really know what was requested and what was offered. I have a feeling it was more than just those guys. Perhaps Votto would've needed to have been included as well. For what it's worth, Bedard has been hurt and not looked so good. Lastly, I actually don't think 1 of those guys would've been a big enough difference maker (based on what we've seen out of the Reds so far this year) to put the team into contention.

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 01:37 PM
I think Affeldt has been a bright spot too. The dude has been solid. But, Harang, Volquez, Cordero and Affeldt is simply not enough.

Also, yeah the Reds could have acquired Haren or Bedard, but we really don't know exactly what both the teams on the other end wanted. We heard Bruce, we heard Cueto...but we don't really know what was requested and what was offered. I have a feeling it was more than just those guys. Perhaps Votto would've needed to have been included as well. For what it's worth, Bedard has been hurt and not looked so good. Lastly, I actually don't think 1 of those guys would've been a big enough difference maker (based on what we've seen out of the Reds so far this year) to put the team into contention.

Bedard was hurt, but since his return he's been as advertised. A total bulldog.

Cooper
05-12-2008, 01:45 PM
With Ceuto and Bailey they are going to have to suffer through a transition year. Many starters go thru it...the only way to avoid it is to put them in bullpen and spot them. Either way there's usually one year that you have to kind of eat it. Keeping Bailey down in triple A is silly. Triple A doesn't allow him t go thru the transition year he needs to go thru -so bring him up and let's get on to lessons learned.

They are blessed with good arms, but don't have a plan on how to develop them.

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 01:49 PM
With Ceuto and Bailey they are going to have to suffer through a transition year. Many starters go thru it...the only way to avoid it is to put them in bullpen and spot them. Either way there's usually one year that you have to kind of eat it. Keeping Bailey down in triple A is silly. Triple A doesn't allow him t go thru the transition year he needs to go thru -so bring him up and let's get on to lessons learned.

They are blessed with good arms, but don't have a plan on how to develop them.

I think Bailey in the MLB rotation right away is no way to develop him, but I think they've left themselves no alternative.

Well, the best thing would be to flip Bailey for a good defending hitter.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 01:55 PM
Bedard was hurt, but since his return he's been as advertised. A total bulldog.

Yeah, but he also seems to have a glass arm. The dude has been hurt a lot over his career. That's a pretty big risk to assume.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 01:57 PM
Well, the best thing would be to flip Bailey for a good defending hitter.

Just being nosey and curious here, where would the good defending hitter play, what position?

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 02:03 PM
Just being nosey and curious here, where would the good defending hitter play, what position?

With any luck he'd have options. So when one or both of Griffey/Dunn gets shipped out, he could take a spot.

Worry about the talent first, where to play next.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 02:12 PM
With any luck he'd have options. So when one or both of Griffey/Dunn gets shipped out, he could take a spot.

Worry about the talent first, where to play next.

Good idea. I would like to see Jocketty do something to achieve that a couple times at least, to accomplish a couple of hitters that can field to resolve some of the questionable voids. I know that I blow on and on about Bruce, but Bruce could be a Chris Sexton, Brandon Larsen combination that hits and fields in the minors but at the major league level be something that soon fades into the dust, you’re right the Reds need something solid, something more than lateral moves or a shuffling of the deck, they need quality. I am having trouble sorting the variables between the pitching, bad defense and poor offense, I think that I am seeing confounding variables.

PuffyPig
05-12-2008, 03:00 PM
I know that I blow on and on about Bruce, but Bruce could be a Chris Sexton, Brandon Larsen combination that hits and fields in the minors but at the major league level be something that soon fades into the dust....


In fairness to Bruce, Larson was never considered that good a prospect, and never hit that much in the minors anyway. Sexton was never a prospect period.

Jpup
05-12-2008, 03:05 PM
Good idea. I would like to see Jocketty do something to achieve that a couple times at least, to accomplish a couple of hitters that can field to resolve some of the questionable voids. I know that I blow on and on about Bruce, but Bruce could be a Chris Sexton, Brandon Larsen combination that hits and fields in the minors but at the major league level be something that soon fades into the dust, you’re right the Reds need something solid, something more than lateral moves or a shuffling of the deck, they need quality. I am having trouble sorting the variables between the pitching, bad defense and poor offense, I think that I am seeing confounding variables.

To compare Jay Bruce to Brandon Larsen is blasphemy.

membengal
05-12-2008, 03:44 PM
See, this is where I refuse to bunch my pantaloons.

I look at the pitching to date and am decidedly sanguine about what I am seeing. The Ks are uber-encouraging, and good results are not that far away. Way too early to be panicky.

And, again, as one who figured 81 wins was about right for this team, the slow start doesn't really bother me. I would guess, if a fan were hoping/expecting for more than that, this would rankle, but viewed through a work-in-progress lens, I am fairly satisfied.

Volquez has a chance to be a #1 anchor. Swizzle.

Cueto's talent is real. The bumps as he has settled into the major leagues were expected by me, at any rate. And others here too.

Harang is what he always has been. A consummate top-of-the-rotation pro.

Those are all good things.

Arroyo is what Arroyo is. Sometimes good. Sometimes bad.

And the fifth spot is what many teams fifth spots are. A hope and a prayer. Belisle has disappointed. Fogg has been as bad as I thought he would be. Such is life.

But I am by no means wringing hands over what the pitching has wrought to date, and, in the alternative, have actually been rather pleased. Then again, I perhaps measure progress slightly differently. But having a team that is running pitchers out there that miss bats as consistently as this crew does is a decided step in the right direction from where I sit.

Sorry for the dissent in the face of the general hand-wringing.

Carry on.

PuffyPig
05-12-2008, 04:14 PM
But I am by no means wringing hands over what the pitching has wrought to date, and, in the alternative, have actually been rather pleased. Then again, I perhaps measure progress slightly differently. But having a team that is running pitchers out there that miss bats as consistently as this crew does is a decided step in the right direction from where I sit.

.

You are spot on where I am.

The results aren't here yet, but I feel that it's headed in the right direction.

For the first time in recent memory we have pitchers who are missing plenty of bats.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 04:21 PM
In fairness to Bruce, Larson was never considered that good a prospect, and never hit that much in the minors anyway. Sexton was never a prospect period.

Puffy and Jpup
I was thinking more about looking at their (Sexton/Larsen) hitting stats when they were at AAA, they looked good there, okay, encouraging, and well we saw the rest.

God I hope that Bruce is in a different league than they were........I will be eating crow clear into the next lifetime. "Wasn't that you that wrote such and such, didn't you write this and that", uh um no, Patterson made me do it, I was under duress. ;)

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 04:22 PM
You are spot on where I am.

The results aren't here yet, but I feel that it's headed in the right direction.

For the first time in recent memory we have pitchers who are missing plenty of bats.

According to most, the Reds have been heading in the right direction since the day the Reds hired Krivsky. So the Reds have added one difference-making arm since Krivsky's arrival (Volquez) and promoted someone that he didn't draft (Cueto--who is struggling desperately). Yes, it's something, but I wouldn't categorize criticism of the glacial pace of "improvement" as "hand-wringing." You can see the W-L record as well as I can. How you go about feeling about it is your business, but I know I'm justified in my doubts.

REDREAD
05-12-2008, 04:22 PM
To compare Jay Bruce to Brandon Larsen is blasphemy.

But the bigger point still stands.

There's a big assumption by some that Bruce could be called up right now and be an upgrade to Jr. Some talk radio people on WLW think he'd be an upgrade over Dunn right now.. In any event, the immediate expectations for the 20-21 year old Bruce are simply staggering and not realistic. Larson had one big year in AAA and had quite a bit of hype built up around him. They even moved the veteran Aaraon Boone to 2b to make room for Larson. It's easy to say in hindsight that Larson was obviously overhyped. Just like it's easy to say now in hindsight that Kearns was overhyped. In 3-4 years, we might be saying the same about Bruce. Bruce probably won't be the colossal failure Larson was, but he might end up just being slightly above average as opposed to a perennial MVP (much like Kearns).

There was an article posted that said the Reds want Bruce to learn how to work walks in AAA. It seems like both Bruce and Homer still have things that they can learn in AAA. I'd much rather them do it at AAA.

In hindsight, Ceuto could've probably benefited from a full year at AAA as well. Or maybe not, it's debatable.. It's a tough decision now on what is the best thing to do for Ceuto..

membengal
05-12-2008, 06:05 PM
According to most, the Reds have been heading in the right direction since the day the Reds hired Krivsky. So the Reds have added one difference-making arm since Krivsky's arrival (Volquez) and promoted someone that he didn't draft (Cueto--who is struggling desperately). Yes, it's something, but I wouldn't categorize criticism of the glacial pace of "improvement" as "hand-wringing." You can see the W-L record as well as I can. How you go about feeling about it is your business, but I know I'm justified in my doubts.

Of course you are (insert winky icon as need be). Not trying to assuage you. But I do think that Cueto is NOT desperately struggling, that the pick-up of Volquez was shrewd as all get out, and that the Volquez pick-up in and of itself makes this already a markedly better year in terms of progress for this staff than we have seen in awhile. And, I really do think Arroyo is about to regress up to his mean. Which will be good for the team.

You and I see thing fundamentally differently. Which is fine. I will no more try to convince you that your view is wrong than you will of trying to convince me my head is more full of holes than it already is.

But there is plenty, from where I sit, to be pleased about in terms of progress. And that extends to the bullpen as well. Burton is going to be a keeper. Affeldt turned out to be a decent bullpen pick-up. Cordero is as advertised. I see progress. I believe the numbers will start to catch up with the flashes that we have already seen.

We shall see, in any event.

dougdirt
05-12-2008, 06:18 PM
The Reds team FIP is currently sitting at 4.12, which ranks them 6th out of 16 teams in the NL and 13th in all of baseball. The main problem is that the defense is downright horrible. They ranked second last in DER in all of baseball. They are far and away striking out more batters than any staff in baseball. Our pitching staff isn't bad, they just appear that way because our defense is absolutely atrocious.

OnBaseMachine
05-24-2008, 02:47 PM
I didn't want to start a new thread for this so I'll post it in here since Bedard was mentioned so much in this thread.

Last night Erik Bedard allowed nine runs in 4.1 innings against the Yankees and now has a 4.70 ERA and 20 BB/40 K ratio in 46.1 innings and is only on pace to throw 152 innings. Plus he's been on the DL once this season already. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make at all, and in this case it appears to be true for the Reds. Bedard is still a good pitcher, but how bad of shape would the Reds be in down the road had Krivsky caved to the pressure and traded Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto for two years (and maybe not that much innings wise) of Erik Bedard?

GAC
05-24-2008, 05:10 PM
But there is plenty, from where I sit, to be pleased about in terms of progress.....I believe the numbers will start to catch up with the flashes that we have already seen.

We shall see, in any event.

That is my position as well. In the case of rookies like Volquez and Cueto, it's all about progress and development right now more then W-L.

VR
05-24-2008, 05:25 PM
It's frightening to imagine how even a 'league average' defense would make the pitching and overall results.

mth123
05-24-2008, 05:34 PM
It's frightening to imagine how even a 'league average' defense would make the pitching and overall results.

Yep.

3 Fly Ball Starters in Harang, Arroyo and Cueto throwing nearly half the innings. I'd prefer Patterson hit lower in the order, but on this team he really needs to be out there. LF is the crux of the offense. RF seems to be the easist place to upgrade.

In the IF, SS has been an issue. I'd probably play Janish every day until Kepp gets back and then still may play him when the ground ball guys (Belisle and to a lesser extent Volquez) are pitching. I'm OK with Votto and EdE at the corners and Phillips is good out there. Bako needs to catch eveyday until somebody better is acquired. Unless Hanigan or Colina is that guy, there isn't anyone better in the organizatrion.

jojo
05-24-2008, 05:35 PM
I didn't want to start a new thread for this so I'll post it in here since Bedard was mentioned so much in this thread.

Last night Erik Bedard allowed nine runs in 4.1 innings against the Yankees and now has a 4.70 ERA and 20 BB/40 K ratio in 46.1 innings and is only on pace to throw 152 innings. Plus he's been on the DL once this season already. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make at all, and in this case it appears to be true for the Reds. Bedard is still a good pitcher, but how bad of shape would the Reds be in down the road had Krivsky caved to the pressure and traded Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto for two years (and maybe not that much innings wise) of Erik Bedard?

Before last night he had an ERA of 3.24. I agree trading Bruce and Cueto for Bedard would have been to the detriment of the Reds future (and argued that alot in various rosterbation threads). That said, as to where the Reds would be right now, they'd have one of the best lefties in the majors in their rotation instead of Cueto (who is currently learning on the job).

OnBaseMachine
05-24-2008, 05:38 PM
Before last night he had an ERA of 3.24. I agree trading Bruce and Cueto for Bedard would have been to the detriment of the Reds future (and argued that alot in various rosterbation threads). That said, as to where the Reds would be right now, they'd have one of the best lefties in the majors in their rotation instead of Cueto (who is currently learning on the job).

I like Bedard, but I'll take Cueto over two years of Bedard.