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View Full Version : Dusty should be blamed for Reds losing



fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 03:01 PM
No, not entirely.

He can't pitch the ball, he doesn't go up to bat and he doesn't take the field and he didn't get to handpick his personnel. And yes, his lineups cause more controversy than anything and you could certainly say that's hurt his cause. However, what I blame Dusty for is not getting the most out of his players, which is supposedly his specialty. I remember last year, the Cubs got off to a bad start. What did Sweet Lou do? He goes on a tirade and gets ejected and mysteriously, the Cubs played much better from that point on. Many Cubs were cited as saying that it was a turnaround point in the season for the team. Why is it that the Pirates are contending this year with less talent and playing the same schedule as the Reds? You could debate the talent I suppose, but a big part of it is the fact that those guys are relentless. They have tenacity and they look like they want to win each time they play.

Good managers motivate and light a fire from underneath when the team needs it. Good managers get the most out of their players and don't allow for complacency. It's almost like Dusty knows he's got a big payday for 3 years, so he's sort of nonchalant about everything. I'm not suggesting he's happy about losing, but I do think he's not taking it very seriously and he seemingly has done nothing to try to improve the situation. This team has many flaws, but there are no stats/metrics or anything anyone can tell me that would have me believe that this team is giving 100% effort. 100% effort may not put this team in contention, but it would sure help them get closer to it. And for this, I blame the manager.

redsrule2500
05-12-2008, 03:04 PM
Yeah Dusty seems like a load of overrated.... Sure, he's a big name, but his only success was with a fantastic young group of guys in SF and one year with the huge market Chicago Cubs. His complete lack of baseball knowledge astounds me nearly every single day, as he is clearly a "players manager" - but doesn't seem to have any fantastic relationships with players working for him either!

Dusty FOR THE LOSS. Worst manager choice ever, I would LOVE to have Pete back!

Falls City Beer
05-12-2008, 03:30 PM
No, not entirely.

He can't pitch the ball, he doesn't go up to bat and he doesn't take the field and he didn't get to handpick his personnel. And yes, his lineups cause more controversy than anything and you could certainly say that's hurt his cause. However, what I blame Dusty for is not getting the most out of his players, which is supposedly his specialty. I remember last year, the Cubs got off to a bad start. What did Sweet Lou do? He goes on a tirade and gets ejected and mysteriously, the Cubs played much better from that point on. Many Cubs were cited as saying that it was a turnaround point in the season for the team. Why is it that the Pirates are contending this year with less talent and playing the same schedule as the Reds? You could debate the talent I suppose, but a big part of it is the fact that those guys are relentless. They have tenacity and they look like they want to win each time they play.

Good managers motivate and light a fire from underneath when the team needs it. Good managers get the most out of their players and don't allow for complacency. It's almost like Dusty knows he's got a big payday for 3 years, so he's sort of nonchalant about everything. I'm not suggesting he's happy about losing, but I do think he's not taking it very seriously and he seemingly has done nothing to try to improve the situation. This team has many flaws, but there are no stats/metrics or anything anyone can tell me that would have me believe that this team is giving 100% effort. 100% effort may not put this team in contention, but it would sure help them get closer to it. And for this, I blame the manager.


The Pirates are in no way contending this season. They are just not sucking as hard as they will.

Joseph
05-12-2008, 03:30 PM
Dusty should be blamed yes.

Krivsky should be blamed yes.

Castellini should be blamed yes.

There is tons and tons of blame to go around. I worry its not going to magically improve like BCast and co want it to. They seem to think they can tweak things a little and it'll get better.

This team doesn't need a scalpel, it needs a chainsaw.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 03:40 PM
The Pirates are in no way contending this season. They are just not sucking as hard as they will.

They're contending right now, which was my point. And they're doing it because of effort.

RichRed
05-12-2008, 03:57 PM
They're contending right now, which was my point. And they're doing it because of effort.

So they're trying harder than the Reds? Sorry, I just don't buy that.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2008, 04:00 PM
So they're trying harder than the Reds? Sorry, I just don't buy that.

Yep, I firmly believe it. Have you watched them play this season? I've seen probably 10-12 games. Those guys just don't give up. They play every inning with the same amount of intensity.

REDREAD
05-12-2008, 04:33 PM
I don't think Dusty is the main culprit at all.

Lou, Joe Torre, LaRussa.. none of them would have the team playing any better.

It's just a bad team. Part of Dusty's puzzling lineup strategy was to get people back on track. One can question whether batting Jr second for a few games is a good way to get Jr hitting, but it's not as if he's making the lineups out randomly.

Many people were predicting he was going to stick with Patterson no matter what. That was obviously not true. Freel and Harriston are getting a lot of time since Patterson is struggling. Dusty was also quick to pull the plug on Fogg. Dusty does a lot of things the board things should be done, he's just perhaps a bit more patient because he has to deal with real human beings and wants to give them a legitimate shot..

redsrule2500
05-12-2008, 04:39 PM
I would agree that nobody could do better except Pete took last years team and went over .500 with the team in the latter half!

REDREAD
05-12-2008, 04:52 PM
I would agree that nobody could do better except Pete took last years team and went over .500 with the team in the latter half!

Dusty lost Josh Hamilton from that team, and was given Patterson as a replacement. Dusty also has an ineffective Arroyo this year and 3 youngsters in the rotation. Also many of the hitters are struggling.

The blame finger needs to point squarely at Wayne for this bad start. This team was his baby. A manager can only do so much.

Kc61
05-12-2008, 04:57 PM
I don't think Dusty is the main culprit at all.

Lou, Joe Torre, LaRussa.. none of them would have the team playing any better.

It's just a bad team. Part of Dusty's puzzling lineup strategy was to get people back on track. One can question whether batting Jr second for a few games is a good way to get Jr hitting, but it's not as if he's making the lineups out randomly.

Many people were predicting he was going to stick with Patterson no matter what. That was obviously not true. Freel and Harriston are getting a lot of time since Patterson is struggling. Dusty was also quick to pull the plug on Fogg. Dusty does a lot of things the board things should be done, he's just perhaps a bit more patient because he has to deal with real human beings and wants to give them a legitimate shot..

Dusty's lineups seem driven often by the abundance of left handed hitters. When Freel leads off, Kepp hits seventh, because Dusty doesn't want to bunch his few right handed bats. Rather he wants to "spread" his few righty bats throughout the lineup.

Say Dusty led off with Freel, Keppinger -- sounds more sensible than the current order. But then, of the next 6 hitters, four would be lefties and only two righties leading to "bunching up" of lefty bats. That seems to be Dusty's concern.

He also seems tied to Griffey hitting third. He hit second only as a temporary emergency slump-busting measure.

When you put all these factors together, you get the current batting orders.

Not agreeing with this approach, simply saying I think it's Dusty's reasoning.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 05:06 PM
I don't think Dusty is the main culprit at all.

Lou, Joe Torre, LaRussa.. none of them would have the team playing any better.

It's just a bad team. Part of Dusty's puzzling lineup strategy was to get people back on track.

I don't think that it is about who is the main culprit.

I think it is about what a manager can do to help his team and what a manager can do to try and not hurt his teams chances and not about what a manager cannot do.

Dusty can place his hitting resources in a better position to produce a return.
Dusty can bat Keppinger at leadoff
Dusty can stop batting Phillips at cleanup
Dusty can get off of the CF bats first, and the SS bats second.
Dusty can bat Dunn second.
Dusty can move Griffey out of being the fixture in the 3 slot and down to the
4th or 5th spot.
Dusty can stack Votto, Encarcion and Griffey behind Dunn
Dusty can produced a better order against left handed pitchers who are snuffing out left handed hitters.
Dusty can bat the higher OBP players in the top spots.
Dusty can bat the higher SLG players behind the OBP players
Dusty can hide Patterson on the bench until a late inning replacement is needed for defensive purposes.
Dusty can hit Patterson 7th or 8th in the order
Dusty can give players like Hatteberg and Valentin a bit more playing time to keep them sharp for when they are needed to pinch hit.
Dusty can give Griffey more rest improving the right field defense, and maybe offenses output.
Dusty can take some pressure off of the pitching by being wiser with his lineup contsructions and putting his players that he does have in a higher percentage chance to succeed.
Dusty can have someone look up the stats for the players during the last seven games each day to see who in reality is producing with OBP, SLG etc in the here and now, and place those players where they can be used now, today, to get the most out of them while they are hitting well or producing, increasing the probability of scoring more runs and putting more pressure on the opposition.

Dusty could have and can contribute less to the losses and maybe reduce the losses to some wins.

Some things Baker can do, and those that Baker can and could've done is what he should be held accountable for. Baker has contributed to losses with his choices and decisions

Don't you agree ?

How do I know that Lou, Torre or Larussa could not have achieved 5 more wins with this team to date?

20 - 18 .526 and 4th place with hope looks massive, in comparison to the reality of 15 - 23 .395 and dead last to me at this point of the season.

REDREAD
05-12-2008, 06:20 PM
Some things Baker can do, and those that Baker can and could've done is what he should be held accountable for. Baker has contributed to losses with his choices and decisions

Don't you agree ?

How do I know that Lou, Torre or Larussa could not have achieved 5 more wins with this team to date?

20 - 18 .526 and 4th place with hope looks massive, in comparison to the reality of 15 - 23 .395 and dead last to me at this point of the season.

But didn't Bill James and some other stat gurus suggest that lineup order is pretty much meaningless. In other words, "optimal" lineups aren't that much better than random ones.

I don't think any other manager could've gotten 5 more wins out of this club.
I doubt they could even get one more win.

If we look through the losses, which losses can you clearly say that Dusty cost us the game? I can't recall any, but I'm open to suggestions.

The offense hasn't clicked all seasons. We've had periods where Patterson, Kepp, and EdE were hot seperately, but that's about it.

I wouldn't bat Dunn seventh either, but I hardly think it's cost us any wins.

For example, the Reds lose yesterday, no matter what the lineup was. They just played horrible. The same can be said for many of their losses.

edabbs44
05-12-2008, 06:26 PM
This team should have been blown up 2 years ago. Now we are just that much further behind.

These are just wasted years passing by.

RedsManRick
05-12-2008, 06:36 PM
But didn't Bill James and some other stat gurus suggest that lineup order is pretty much meaningless. In other words, "optimal" lineups aren't that much better than random ones.

Over the course of the season, an "optimal" lineup is worth in the ballpark of 30-40 runs over a reasonable, but clearly suboptimal one.



I don't think any other manager could've gotten 5 more wins out of this club.
I doubt they could even get one more win.

If we look through the losses, which losses can you clearly say that Dusty cost us the game? I can't recall any, but I'm open to suggestions.

The offense hasn't clicked all seasons. We've had periods where Patterson, Kepp, and EdE were hot seperately, but that's about it.

I wouldn't bat Dunn seventh either, but I hardly think it's cost us any wins.

For example, the Reds lose yesterday, no matter what the lineup was. They just played horrible. The same can be said for many of their losses.

This debate has happened 100x over, but the real question is how much of the player performance do you attribute to the manager. Holding player performance constant, managers can't do more than a handful of wins and losses with strategy and lineup decisions -- probably 5-6 at the extreme. However, player performance is obviously the primary determinant of team success.

I don't know of a single Red whose good performance to date has any ties to Dusty as a manager -- perhaps EE. Our players are pretty much playing like who they are. Dusty isn't using them very well, in my opinion, but as you suggest, no manager could've managed these performances to a winning record.

My problem with the situation is that Dusty is being paid like (and treated) like he has some big positive effect. All I've seen is a guy who misuses his roster, defects blame, and attracts players who the team would be better off without. This team is not playing up to it's capabilities in a number of areas. I simply don't understand what positives he's bringing to the table.

Chip R
05-12-2008, 07:13 PM
My problem with the situation is that Dusty is being paid like (and treated) like he has some big positive effect. All I've seen is a guy who misuses his roster, defects blame, and attracts players who the team would be better off without. This team is not playing up to it's capabilities in a number of areas. I simply don't understand what positives he's bringing to the table.


Is Dusty totally at fault? Of course not. He doesn't hit, pitch or field for the players. But if the Reds record were reversed, you have to believe he would be getting the lion's share of the credit. I don't know if he deserves any of the blame but he was supposed to be the one to turn things around. The players were supposed to be more fundamentally sound (although we've heard that every year for the past several years) yet they aren't. Guys are getting picked off, they have problems bunting, they are, for the most part, still poor on defense. To be fair to Dusty, I don't think that's something a manager can control and improve in a short period of time. But he is ultimately the man responsible for the team's performance just as Boone, Miley, Narron and Mackanin were when they were managers. The real blame rests on the players but, as the old saying goes, you can't fire 25 players. But in this case, I think the Reds will do just that. They won't get rid of everyone but next year guys like Ross and Dunn and Jr. and Patterson and Hatteberg and Valentin will be gone - perhaps others as well. Walt has to build the team he wants and I would hope he either builds it around what Dusty wants or get rid of him and build it around the new manager's strengths.

KronoRed
05-12-2008, 07:19 PM
Dusty should be blamed for letting his preference for certain players affect how he manages, some guys struggle and get moved up, others get buried no matter what, and on and on.

edabbs44
05-12-2008, 07:32 PM
Is Dusty totally at fault? Of course not. He doesn't hit, pitch or field for the players. But if the Reds record were reversed, you have to believe he would be getting the lion's share of the credit.

Based on the current roster, he would deserve to get as much credit as possible if the record were reversed.

RedsManRick
05-12-2008, 07:41 PM
Based on the current roster, he would deserve to get as much credit as possible if the record were reversed.

I agree. But if they were playing .500 ball, I'd say that Dusty wasn't having much of an effect. The reality is that we can never know what effect he's having. But I can pretty much guarantee that the Reds wouldn't be any worse off without him. And considering he's making about 10x what our last manager made, that's a pretty damning statement.

Again, I just don't understand what exactly we're paying for.

NC Reds
05-12-2008, 07:42 PM
Only Dusty would bat his best power hitter 7th. Just when I think he can't get any worse, Dusty does. Tonight's lineup is just dumb.

Marc D
05-12-2008, 07:44 PM
This team should have been blown up 2 years ago. Now we are just that much further behind.

These are just wasted years passing by.


and I remember those of us who were saying it at the time being ridiculed. "Just give WK time, look at what he did by trading WMP for Arroyo...etc" well he got time and look where we are. The firesale that didn't happen in 2006 still needs to happen.

We've probably missed out on Harang being in his prime when and if this team ever contends again by throwing away the last two years, hopefully WJ can see this and convince Bob C to let it happen. I doubt it but its worth mentioning.

Deep down I think the fundamental issue is the same with Bob C now as it was in 2006. He thinks we can rebuild while we "contend" and as long as the man at the top is that far off in his vision then the organization stands no chance.

edabbs44
05-12-2008, 07:49 PM
I agree. But if they were playing .500 ball, I'd say that Dusty wasn't having much of an effect. The reality is that we can never know what effect he's having. But I can pretty much guarantee that the Reds wouldn't be any worse off without him. And considering he's making about 10x what our last manager made, that's a pretty damning statement.

Again, I just don't understand what exactly we're paying for.

I agree with you there. "Big acquisitions" like managers and closers, IMO, shouldn't be acquired until the team is ready to take the next step.

This team wasn't ready.

edabbs44
05-12-2008, 07:50 PM
and I remember those of us who were saying it at the time being ridiculed. "Just give WK time, look at what he did by trading WMP for Arroyo...etc" well he got time and look where we are. The firesale that didn't happen in 2006 still needs to happen.

We've probably missed out on Harang being in his prime when and if this team ever contends again by throwing away the last two years, hopefully WJ can see this and convince Bob C to let it happen. I doubt it but its worth mentioning.

Deep down I think the fundamental issue is the same with Bob C now as it was in 2006. He thinks we can rebuild while we "contend" and as long as the man at the top is that far off in his vision then the organization stands no chance.

I was being Negative Nancy. But I think my logic was pretty solid. And it still is.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 08:03 PM
But didn't Bill James and some other stat gurus suggest that lineup order is pretty much meaningless. In other words, "optimal" lineups aren't that much better than random ones.

Now was James talking about a balanced team with 7-8 decent players? Or did he suggest that a team could make a lineup with the pitcher leading off, followed by a Castro and a Patterson and that type of lineup would not really matter? I can see statistically where a lineup would not matter if the players have the stats. I can see where the lineup of the Reds would also make a difference with the poor hitting that they have. I believe that James would agree with the higher OBP heading the top of the order and then the higher sluggging percentage following them.

Are you saying that James wouldn't care where the OBP and SLG batted? on a basement dwelling team? Speckled with basement dwelling talent? Surely he is an intelligent man that would put his best choices in a forward order statistically. Stat gurus published a different opinion in the Enquirer just today or yesterday didn't they? Where they suggested a batting order, why would they do that if they are meaningless?


I don't think any other manager could've gotten 5 more wins out of this club.
I doubt they could even get one more win.

I think that your wrong because you cannot factor in synergy that another manager might have profited from by making better choices than Dusty, if Dusty errors so badly in the light of day with Patterson for all of us to see, then how much does he error behind the scenes of the closed closet?
More would be a good rule of thumb.


If we look through the losses, which losses can you clearly say that Dusty cost us the game? I can't recall any, but I'm open to suggestions.
If we look through the losses, which losses can you clearly say that Lou, Torre, or Larussa could not have won with better decisions and choices?;)

Do you think that Lou, Torre or Larussa would have had Patterson, Hairston and Bako on this team to begin with? Without them the dynamics of the team changes, don't you agree ?

redsrule2500
05-12-2008, 08:07 PM
Dusty lost Josh Hamilton from that team, and was given Patterson as a replacement. Dusty also has an ineffective Arroyo this year and 3 youngsters in the rotation. Also many of the hitters are struggling.

The blame finger needs to point squarely at Wayne for this bad start. This team was his baby. A manager can only do so much.

I think a less effective Arroyo is better as long as you have a Volquez....c'mon.

Spring~Fields
05-12-2008, 08:16 PM
Walt has to build the team he wants and I would hope he either builds it around what Dusty wants or get rid of him and build it around the new manager's strengths.

If Walt builds a winner, meaning winning more than losing, not necessarily a champion, I will give the players and Walt credit because the manager will have little to do with that. I believe that you could win with better players even though you have no big league managing experience, what you lack in experience you could delegate.