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M2
05-13-2008, 02:31 AM
Since hitting a position player in the #9 slot is all the rage nowadays in the NL Central, Dusty Baker ought to accelerate Adam Dunn's gradual lineup demotion journey and get him down to #9.

I'm only half kidding about this. I'd rather see him there than #6 or #7.

KronoRed
05-13-2008, 03:01 AM
Give Dusty time

RedlegJake
05-13-2008, 08:43 AM
Along the same vein, why not just leadoff with the pitcher? You get the first out out of the way, and you can double switch in a CFer to leadoff late in the game.

Caveat Emperor
05-13-2008, 08:58 AM
Along the same vein, why not just leadoff with the pitcher? You get the first out out of the way, and you can double switch in a CFer to leadoff late in the game.

Going by their OBP, Harang isn't much worse of a leadoff option than Corey Patterson this season.

Falls City Beer
05-13-2008, 09:05 AM
Dunn's been awful this season. He likely won't be all season, but I doubt his placement in the lineup has much to do with his .750 OPS. He and Griffey are playing like low-energy kryptonite.

As has been clear for 6-7 years, I've supported Dunn and supported Dunn. But his game isn't pretty at all right now. The team doesn't have a chance--with or without Dunn's production--but I'd sure like to get something for him at the deadline.

RedlegJake
05-13-2008, 09:37 AM
Dunn's been awful this season. He likely won't be all season, but I doubt his placement in the lineup has much to do with his .750 OPS. He and Griffey are playing like low-energy kryptonite.

As has been clear for 6-7 years, I've supported Dunn and supported Dunn. But his game isn't pretty at all right now. The team doesn't have a chance--with or without Dunn's production--but I'd sure like to get something for him at the deadline.

I agree he's been awful but if he began bopping a homer every 10 ABs again while still walking it would go a long way toward helping this offense. We've seen Dunn go through season long hitting droughts like this but never before such a lack of home runs. The Reds really need for him to start hitting the long ball regularly. Whether he ups his BA or not is immaterial given that his OBP will still be high, its his lack of slugging when he does swing that is hurting.

A day off might be in order, too, to get his toenail healed up.

Falls City Beer
05-13-2008, 09:40 AM
I agree he's been awful but if he began bopping a homer every 10 ABs again while still walking it would go a long way toward helping this offense. We've seen Dunn go through season long hitting droughts like this but never before such a lack of home runs. The Reds really need for him to start hitting the long ball regularly. Whether he ups his BA or not is immaterial given that his OBP will still be high, its his lack of slugging when he does swing that is hurting.

A day off might be in order, too, to get his toenail healed up.

Dunn OPSing well under .800 with his defense makes him a huge liability. Yeah, he needs to hit for power because despite what folks are saying, this team is still a mediocre SLG team.

RFS62
05-13-2008, 09:51 AM
Patterson is the man who should be hitting ninth.

Call it a LaRussa-Yost inspired move, call it "special leadoff" or whatever you have to do to sell it and keep his defense in the lineup.

PuffyPig
05-13-2008, 10:16 AM
Yeah, he needs to hit for power because despite what folks are saying, this team is still a mediocre SLG team.

The Reds are 7th in the NL in SL%, but it's really dragged down by a mediocre BA.

If you compare the NL teams based on the difference betwen their BA and SL% (which shows how much a teams SL% is increased due to extra base hits (which is the very definition of slugging), the Reds rank 4th, behind
Florida, Arizona and the Phillies.

The Reds are an above average slugging team.

Falls City Beer
05-13-2008, 10:24 AM
The Reds are 7th in the NL in SL%, but it's really dragged down by a mediocre BA.

If you compare the NL teams based on the difference betwen their BA and SL% (which shows how much a teams SL% is increased due to extra base hits (which is the very definition of slugging), the Reds rank 4th, behind
Florida, Arizona and the Phillies.

The Reds are an above average slugging team.

The Reds are a mediocre "SLG %" team, then. But a good BA-SLG team. :rolleyes:

Particularly when you consider they play in the best HR park in baseball.

*BaseClogger*
05-13-2008, 10:27 AM
Dunn's career: .247/.380/.515 with a .289 BABIP
Dunn's 2008: .209/.352/.400 with a .228 BABIP

If that difference between 2008 and career BABIP was made up with only singles (.061 * 115 AB = 7 singles) Dunn's 2008 line would look like this: .270/.400/.461

Past LD%
2004: 19.3%
2005: 17.1%
2006: 23.5%
2007: 18.8%
2008: 17.6%

registerthis
05-13-2008, 10:38 AM
Dunn's career: .247/.380/.515 with a .289 BABIP
Dunn's 2008: .209/.352/.400 with a .228 BABIP

If that difference between 2008 and career BABIP was made up with only singles (.061 * 115 AB = 7 singles) Dunn's 2008 line would look like this: .270/.400/.461

Past LD%
2004: 19.3%
2005: 17.1%
2006: 23.5%
2007: 18.8%
2008: 17.6%

That may be, but when you're trying to boost his value in terms of trade prospects, you're not going to convert many GMs to part with much anything of value by pointing out things like this.

With Dunn, you're paying for a 40 HR guy who walks a lot. Those are good skills to have. But he's not a high average hitter, and his defense is flat-out bad. So when Dunn isn't hitting, he's a difficult commodity to unload. Now, I don't think Dunn's going to hit this way all year, but right now he's on pace to hit 29 HRs and strike out 158 times. If the Reds hope to unload him for something of value in July, they better home his ensuing 2 months are markedly better than the first month and a half.

PuffyPig
05-13-2008, 11:31 AM
The Reds are a mediocre "SLG %" team, then. But a good BA-SLG team. :rolleyes:

Particularly when you consider they play in the best HR park in baseball.

Buit their SL% is only mediocre (actually average) because of a low BA, not becuase of extra base hits.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

REDREAD
05-13-2008, 11:39 AM
Dunn's career: .247/.380/.515 with a .289 BABIP
Dunn's 2008: .209/.352/.400 with a .228 BABIP


IMO, BABIP is used too often to gloss over things. Not calling you out, just saying this in general.

I don't want to make a statement based on perception. I haven't been tracking every at bat Dunn makes.. however, we need to see how many line drives Dunn has hit right at people that would've been hits if the fielder was 2 inches to the right.. How many homeruns has a great OFer robbed him of, etc.. Is this amount above average?

That's what I'd like to see in BABIP based arguments. Because if a player hits a lot of popups and weak ground balls, he's going to have a low BABIP simply because he's not making quality contact. Again, my impression is that this is Dunn's fault, but I have no real evidence to hang that on since I don't have the data recorded..

In other words, Dunn's BABIP might be low simply because he's struggling, not due to bad luck.

Benihana
05-13-2008, 11:43 AM
Patterson is the man who should be hitting ninth.

Call it a LaRussa-Yost inspired move, call it "special leadoff" or whatever you have to do to sell it and keep his defense in the lineup.

I've been advocating this for weeks. Dusty would never do it though, it's too unorthodox

*BaseClogger*
05-13-2008, 02:22 PM
IMO, BABIP is used too often to gloss over things. Not calling you out, just saying this in general.

I don't want to make a statement based on perception. I haven't been tracking every at bat Dunn makes.. however, we need to see how many line drives Dunn has hit right at people that would've been hits if the fielder was 2 inches to the right.. How many homeruns has a great OFer robbed him of, etc.. Is this amount above average?

That's what I'd like to see in BABIP based arguments. Because if a player hits a lot of popups and weak ground balls, he's going to have a low BABIP simply because he's not making quality contact. Again, my impression is that this is Dunn's fault, but I have no real evidence to hang that on since I don't have the data recorded..

In other words, Dunn's BABIP might be low simply because he's struggling, not due to bad luck.

I posted his line drive rate. It's not as high as last season, but he is in the same general area as in past seasons...

Jpup
05-13-2008, 02:27 PM
How about batting him 3rd and leaving him alone?

flyer85
05-13-2008, 02:28 PM
IMO, BABIP is used too often to gloss over things. BABIP(especially as tied to LD%) is all about the randomness of the game and how good/bad luck can play a very large factor even over an entire season.

What the numbers show is that Dunn is down on some power for the season but his other numbers can be accounted for by the randomness of the game.