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OnBaseMachine
05-13-2008, 05:14 PM
Reds' Draft plans unchanged
Front office upheaval does not alter drafting philosophy
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

CINCINNATI -- Upheaval in the general manager's office isn't expected to shake up how the Reds approach their Draft selection decisions.

Shortly after Wayne Krivsky was let go as GM on April 23, new GM and president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty held several days of meetings with the baseball department. That included senior director of scouting Chris Buckley, who was one of Krivsky's first hires in February 2006.

The overall Draft mantra: talent rules. The Reds have the seventh overall selection in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft.

"Walt's philosophy is pretty similar to Wayne's," Buckley said. "They're both baseball guys that want us to get the best talent out there. I have not been told to select anybody or stay away from a certain guy. Everybody is in play. We'll go get the best people we can."

MLB.com will carry every pick of the Draft, which takes place June 5-6 at The Milk House at Disney's Wide World of Sports complex in Orlando, Fla. Day 1 coverage begins at 2 p.m. ET with a simulcast of ESPN2's broadcast of the first round and compensation picks. The remaining rounds on Day 1 will be shown exclusively at MLB.com, with live analysis on site from MLB.com Draft guru Jonathan Mayo.

Several of the top amateur prospects are expected to be in attendance in Orlando for Day 1 of the Draft, and each of the 30 Major League Clubs will be represented by front office executives and baseball luminaries. Fans are welcome to attend Day 1 of the Draft, and admission to The Milk House is free with seating limited to a first-come, first-served basis.

Day 2 will get under way at 11:30 am ET and continue through Round 50, if necessary. Every pick on Day 2 can be heard live at MLB.com.

Here's a glance at what the Reds have in store as the First-Year Player Draft approaches:

In about 50 words
Following several first-round mishaps earlier in the decade (David Espinosa, Chris Gruler), the Reds have built a deep talent pool in their system in a short amount of time under both Krivsky and predecessor Dan O'Brien. The only silver lining to taking a backward step at the big league level is a better Draft position. A 72-win 2007 season has Cincinnati back with a top 10 selection for the third time in five years. The last time that the Reds picked seventh overall was 2004 when they selected pitcher Homer Bailey.

The scoop
Picking seventh clearly gives the Reds more opportunities to get who they want. However, the organization is most interested in having a deep Draft all the way through the later rounds.

"Look at the Cardinals," Buckley said. "They got [Albert] Pujols in the 13th round [in 1999]. Ask anyone what the difference in the division has been in the last few years and it's Pujols. Sometimes, your eighth- or 11th-round guys turn out to be the best guy."

First-round buzz
The Reds could have several options with their top pick and are expected to take the best guy available. Because of the number of years needed to develop someone, they will not select a player based on a current need at the big league level. Even though last year's top pick, Devin Mesoraco, was a catcher, there are two expected top 10 catchers in this year's crop in Buster Posey (Florida State) and Kyle Skipworth (high school, Riverside, Calif.). Left-handed pitcher Brian Mattusz would be a nice get, but he's projected to go higher than seventh.

Shopping list
The Reds are usually looking to bolster the middle of the field positions -- catcher, second base, shortstop and center field. Adding more power hitters would also be a regular priority. Of course, there's always going to be a need for pitching, and more pitching. Quality left-handed pitching is routinely in the shortest supply and the highest demand.

Trend watch
In 2006, 34 of the 50 overall picks were players taken out of colleges. Last year, there were 32 college players taken out of the 50. However, three of the last four first-round selections were picked out of high school -- including Mesoraco (15th overall from Punxsutawney, Pa.) in 2007. In last year's Draft, the Reds also took 31 pitchers, including high schooler Kyle Lotzkar -- a first-round sandwich pick.

Recent top picks
C Devin Mesoraco: On May 7, the catcher was promoted to Class A Dayton from extended spring training. Nagged by two injured thumbs, Mesoraco struggled last year during his pro season with the Gulf Coast League Reds.

OF Drew Stubbs: The eighth overall pick from the University of Texas in 2006, Stubbs is with high Class A Sarasota this season. A high strikeout rate remains an issue with this speedy center fielder.

OF Jay Bruce: Taken 12th overall in 2005, Bruce is considered the top prospect in all of baseball by multiple publications. Currently at Triple-A Louisville, the 21-year-old's ascension to the Majors seems imminent.

Rising fast
Shortstop Todd Frazier, who was taken as a first-round supplemental pick last year, was just promoted to Sarasota after a superlative start of 2008 at Dayton. Last year during his first pro season at rookie-level Billings and Dayton, he batted .319.

Cinderella story
Raymond "Jeff" Jeffords, a 19th-round pick last season, is off to a solid start at Dayton. Through 11 relief appearances, Jeffords is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA. He's walked nine compared to 25 strikeouts over 18 2/3 innings.

In The Show
No one from the past three Reds' Drafts has reached the Majors yet. Clearly, Bruce is the closest. Infielder Adam Rosales (12th round, 2005) was impressive in Spring Training and is at Louisville. Reliever Josh Roenicke (10th round, 2006) turned heads in camp too and is with Double-A Chattanooga.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080513&content_id=2690923&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Blue
05-13-2008, 05:35 PM
Shopping list
The Reds are usually looking to bolster the middle of the field positions -- catcher, second base, shortstop and center field. Adding more power hitters would also be a regular priority. Of course, there's always going to be a need for pitching, and more pitching. Quality left-handed pitching is routinely in the shortest supply and the highest demand.

Quality stuff, there. :rolleyes:

I hope one of Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Tim Beckham, Gordon Beckham, or Buster Posey is available at #7.

M2
05-13-2008, 05:37 PM
If the Reds could get Posey or Gordon Beckham on that pick (no way will Tim be there), it would be a good day. I'm also wondering if there's an off chance that Aaron Crow could drop to them.

OnBaseMachine
05-13-2008, 05:40 PM
If the Reds could get Posey or Gordon Beckham on that pick (no way will Tim be there), it would be a good day. I'm also wondering if there's an off chance that Aaron Crow could drop to them.

I'm hoping Matusz somehow falls to the Reds though I highly doubt it. Gordon Beckham would also be a great pick.

M2, what's your opinion on Tanner Scheppers?

dougdirt
05-13-2008, 05:44 PM
If the Reds could get Posey or Gordon Beckham on that pick (no way will Tim be there), it would be a good day. I'm also wondering if there's an off chance that Aaron Crow could drop to them.

I hope Crow is off the board so we don't have the chance to take him. His arm is just waiting to blow up. Gordon Beckham has to be the favorite at this point though I would think.

lollipopcurve
05-13-2008, 05:49 PM
I'm also wondering if there's an off chance that Aaron Crow could drop to them.

I think if he gets by KC there's a decent chance.

Outside of Tim Beckham and Posey, I don't have real strong preferences among the top-rated players right now.

OesterPoster
05-13-2008, 05:53 PM
Quality stuff, there. :rolleyes:

I hope one of Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Tim Beckham, Gordon Beckham, or Buster Posey is available at #7.

Alvarez is a Boras client seeking a signing bonus in the neighborhood of 8 mill.

Tampa Bay will go with Posey or Tim Beckham, I think.

Mario-Rijo
05-13-2008, 06:02 PM
I hope Crow is off the board so we don't have the chance to take him. His arm is just waiting to blow up. Gordon Beckham has to be the favorite at this point though I would think.

I think Crow's agent is Boras so there is a fair chance he will be there. I am really hoping for Matusz or one of the Beckhams to be there and our pick.

My picks in order:

Tim Beckham - SS
Brian Matusz - LHSP
Gordon Beckham - SS (Can he stick at SS? I think so)
Pedro Alvarez - 3B (Will he stick at 3B?)
Buster Posey - C
Justin Smoak - 1B
Eric Hosmer - 1B

One of these guys will be there and whoever is left is who I want. My guess is that it will be Hosmer but his raw power may be enough to cause him to go a tad earlier and drop G. Beckham right in our laps. Which can only be topped by Matusz or T. Beckham IMHO.

Blue
05-13-2008, 06:04 PM
I hope Crow is off the board so we don't have the chance to take him. His arm is just waiting to blow up. Gordon Beckham has to be the favorite at this point though I would think.

I read that the Orioles have Beckham rated higher than Posey and would not let him slide past #4.

Mario-Rijo
05-13-2008, 06:29 PM
I read that the Orioles have Beckham rated higher than Posey and would not let him slide past #4.

I have read that as well, at least that they are high on Beckham. Our only hope is that both Beckhams make it to Baltimore and they take Tim.

Possible scenarios:

1. Rays - Buster Posey
2. PiRATes - Pedro Alvarez
3. Royals - Brian Matusz
4. O's - Tim Beckham
5. Giants - Justin Smoak
6. Marlins - Aaron Crow
7. Reds - Gordon Beckham

This is one of the few ways I see it realistically happening to have a real chance at getting G. Beckham.

M2
05-13-2008, 06:30 PM
M2, what's your opinion on Tanner Scheppers?

I've only seen short video clips of him and nearly everybody looks good in those things. Seems to be walking more guys as the year wears on, so you can't consider him a control freak anymore. My concern with him (and Shooter Hunt) is does he have a second plus pitch? I wouldn't complain about the Reds drafting either of those guys, but right now I'd lean towards Posey, G. Beckham and Smoak (assuming Alvarez, Matusz, T. Beckham and Crow are off the board as the nominal top four).

M2
05-13-2008, 06:41 PM
I have read that as well, at least that they are high on Beckham. Our only hope is that both Beckhams make it to Baltimore and they take Tim.

Possible scenarios:

1. Rays - Buster Posey
2. PiRATes - Pedro Alvarez
3. Royals - Brian Matusz
4. O's - Tim Beckham
5. Giants - Justin Smoak
6. Marlins - Aaron Crow
7. Reds - Gordon Beckham

This is one of the few ways I see it realistically happening to have a real chance at getting G. Beckham.

Honestly, I'd be content no matter which of those seven guys the Reds drafted. I could see the Marlins going with Eric Hosmer too.

OnBaseMachine
05-13-2008, 06:45 PM
I've only seen short video clips of him and nearly everybody looks good in those things. Seems to be walking more guys as the year wears on, so you can't consider him a control freak anymore. My concern with him (and Shooter Hunt) is does he have a second plus pitch? I wouldn't complain about the Reds drafting either of those guys, but right now I'd lean towards Posey, G. Beckham and Smoak (assuming Alvarez, Matusz, T. Beckham and Crow are off the board as the nominal top four).

Cool. Thanks for the reply.

A few weeks ago I had Scheppers high on my board but the recent high walk totals is a bit concerning as you said. As for the second pitch, according to milb.com's draft reports, Scheppers has shown a plus slider at times but as far as it being a consistent pitch who knows. With that said, I still wouldn't complain if the Reds drafted him though I prefer guys like Posey, the two Beckhams, Smoak (Lance Berkman anyone?), Alvarez, or Matusz.

IslandRed
05-13-2008, 09:00 PM
Tampa Bay will go with Posey or Tim Beckham, I think.

Some of my friends down in Florida think the Rays will take Posey. And really, there's nothing not to like there.

lollipopcurve
05-13-2008, 09:03 PM
Tim Beckham - SS
Brian Matusz - LHSP
Gordon Beckham - SS (Can he stick at SS? I think so)
Pedro Alvarez - 3B (Will he stick at 3B?)
Buster Posey - C
Justin Smoak - 1B
Eric Hosmer - 1B

I think I have the same top 7, not in the same order -- still not sure what I think of Crow

Shaknb8k
05-13-2008, 10:52 PM
Whats the problem with Crow? Im pretty up-to-date on the other top guys but a little confused about Crow. He seems to be ranked high by a lot of people but seems like most people on here are saying "Buyer Beware". Future arm problems or what?

LoganBuck
05-13-2008, 11:08 PM
Does Smoak have the foot speed of Sean Casey? I have read several reports that claim he is nimble around first base, but is station to station as a runner, and is locked into first base as a field position.

Posey played all nine positions today for Florida State.

dougdirt
05-13-2008, 11:22 PM
Whats the problem with Crow? Im pretty up-to-date on the other top guys but a little confused about Crow. He seems to be ranked high by a lot of people but seems like most people on here are saying "Buyer Beware". Future arm problems or what?

I think his arm is very scary in terms of future injury potential.

RedlegJake
05-14-2008, 12:04 AM
I think his arm is very scary in terms of future injury potential.

Not just Doug either. Just about every scouting report you read adds a caveat about his mechanics.

cincyinco
05-14-2008, 12:44 AM
If Posey indeed goes to the Rays, how's the draft shake up after it?

Highlifeman21
05-14-2008, 01:09 AM
Reds' Draft plans unchanged
Front office upheaval does not alter drafting philosophy

Scary stuff to read at the top of a story.

Translation: Wayne really hasn't left the building. We're about to go 0 for our last 3 drafts in the 1st Round.

camisadelgolf
05-14-2008, 12:17 PM
Here's my motto:

"Smoak or broke 2008"

Matt700wlw
05-14-2008, 06:39 PM
Here's a mock

Jonathan Mayo Projects The Top Ten Picks
MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo admits it's too early, but still takes a stab at projecting the first ten picks of the June draft. Here's what he's come up with:

1. Rays - Buster Posey, C.
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B.
3. Royals - Eric Hosmer, 1B.
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP.
5. Giants - Tim Beckham, SS.
6. Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C.
7. Reds - Aaron Crow, RHP.
8. White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS.
9. Nationals - Justin Smoak, 1B.
10. Astros - Tanner Scheppers, RHP.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 06:56 PM
Where did you find that Matt?

M2
05-14-2008, 06:58 PM
Here's a mock

Jonathan Mayo Projects The Top Ten Picks
MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo admits it's too early, but still takes a stab at projecting the first ten picks of the June draft. Here's what he's come up with:

1. Rays - Buster Posey, C.
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B.
3. Royals - Eric Hosmer, 1B.
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP.
5. Giants - Tim Beckham, SS.
6. Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C.
7. Reds - Aaron Crow, RHP.
8. White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS.
9. Nationals - Justin Smoak, 1B.
10. Astros - Tanner Scheppers, RHP.

It's a good day when you've got to choose between Crow, G. Beckham, Smoak and Scheppers. There's a lot that can go right in that mix (I'm not sold on Crow's motion being a long-term problem). All I'd want from the Reds in that situation is to draft the guy they've got rated highest.

Matt700wlw
05-14-2008, 07:03 PM
Where did you find that Matt?

mlbtraderumors.com or here

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080514&content_id=2698111&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp&partnered=rss_mlb

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 07:08 PM
mlbtraderumors.com or here

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080514&content_id=2698111&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp&partnered=rss_mlb

Thanks.

Here is what they said about the pick:

7. Cincinnati Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, University of Missouri
Not long ago, a scenario that saw Crow available in this spot didn't seemed plausible. The right-hander had a long track record of success and was putting together an extremely impressive run of 43 consecutive scoreless innings. A few rough outings in a row, combined with some back spasms and some questions about mechanics, has made this possible.

Once thought to be in the mix for the top overall pick, it's not like Crow is going to slide too far and the Reds might find it hard to pass up on his terrific pure stuff. If they're looking for another college right-hander, Scheppers or perhaps Tulane's Shooter Hunt is a possibility. Offensively, they might be interested in Gordon Beckham and there's been some buzz about them liking ASU first baseman Brett Wallace.

lollipopcurve
05-14-2008, 08:42 PM
there's been some buzz about them liking ASU first baseman Brett Wallace.

hmmm. Guy's numbers are real good. Big boy (245) at 3B with power, .535 OBP and 14 steals. LH bat.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 08:43 PM
hmmm. Guy's numbers are real good. Big boy (245) at 3B with power, .535 OBP and 14 steals. LH bat.

If the Reds are going to draft a college 1B then I prefer Justin Smoak. He's a switch-hitter and profiles as a Lance Berkman type hitter.

corkedbat
05-14-2008, 09:22 PM
I like G, Beckham, but would have no problem at all with Smoak.

LoganBuck
05-14-2008, 11:40 PM
A neat breakdown of Crow

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/03/28/aaroncrowmechanalysis/

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 12:34 AM
I'm starting to come around more on Crow. His injury risk couldn't be any worse than Lincecum's and Crow's stuff is just as good. If he's there at number seven then I would have no complaints if the Reds draft him. He's a college guy who could probably reach the majors within a year and a half like Lincecum and give the Reds another young power arm to go along with Bailey/Cueto/Volquez/Thompson.

fearofpopvol1
05-15-2008, 02:40 AM
I'm starting to come around more on Crow. His injury risk couldn't be any worse than Lincecum's and Crow's stuff is just as good. If he's there at number seven then I would have no complaints if the Reds draft him. He's a college guy who could probably reach the majors within a year and a half like Lincecum and give the Reds another young power arm to go along with Bailey/Cueto/Volquez/Thompson.

And the Reds could keep Harang too. Obviously, there are a lot of question marks there, but that has the potential to be a seriously dangerous rotation.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 02:42 AM
And the Reds could keep Harang too. Obviously, there are a lot of question marks there, but that has the potential to be a seriously dangerous rotation.

I meant to put Harang in there but forgot. I think he'll be around for a long time...

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 02:47 PM
According to BA, Tanner Scheppers missed his last start due to shoulder tenderness. Scratch him off the list for the potential No. 7 pick.

dougdirt
05-15-2008, 02:53 PM
According to BA, Tanner Scheppers missed his last start due to shoulder tenderness. Scratch him off the list for the potential No. 7 pick.

Honestly it depends on the reason his shoulder was tender. While I obviously was no draft prospect or anything, I missed a start in high school with 'shoulder problems' because I slept on my arm wrong and just couldn't throw well that day. If it was something like that, no biggie. Time will tell the magnitude of the issue, but I don't think we can scratch him just yet until we find out what exactly was up.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 02:55 PM
Here's what BA said:

• Fresno State righthander Tanner Scheppers is expected to pitch this weekend after missing his turn last weekend for the Bulldogs. Scheppers relieved in the first game of the Bulldogs’ New Mexico State series—reportedly touching 99 mph in one of his seven pitches—and then started on one day’s rest in the series finale. The next Friday, prior to his scheduled start against San Jose State, Scheppers’ shoulder was tender during his bullpen. They backed him off of that start and then tried again Sunday, but decided to back off again when Scheppers again felt some tenderness. According to Fresno State assistant coach Matt Curtis, all signs pointed to a Saturday start this weekend for Scheppers against Gabe Jacobo and Sacramento State.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=276

Mario-Rijo
05-15-2008, 07:52 PM
Here's what BA said:

• Fresno State righthander Tanner Scheppers is expected to pitch this weekend after missing his turn last weekend for the Bulldogs. Scheppers relieved in the first game of the Bulldogs’ New Mexico State series—reportedly touching 99 mph in one of his seven pitches—and then started on one day’s rest in the series finale. The next Friday, prior to his scheduled start against San Jose State, Scheppers’ shoulder was tender during his bullpen. They backed him off of that start and then tried again Sunday, but decided to back off again when Scheppers again felt some tenderness. According to Fresno State assistant coach Matt Curtis, all signs pointed to a Saturday start this weekend for Scheppers against Gabe Jacobo and Sacramento State.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=276

Ouch not once but twice in 3 days! Bad sign.

OnBaseMachine
05-16-2008, 12:29 AM
Even worse news for Scheppers:

Jonathan Mayo has reported in his blog and Baseball America has confirmed with two scouts that Fresno State junior righthander Tanner Scheppers has a stress fracture in his shoulder and will not be able to throw for six weeks. This is obviously a significant blow to the draft stock of a player who had a strong chance to go in the top 10 picks in June, not to mention a crippling blow to Fresno State’s postseason aspirations.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=407