PDA

View Full Version : Keppinger fractures knee



Mainspark
05-13-2008, 09:17 PM
"A big, big, hit," as Marty just said.

From Fay's blog...

Keppinger appeared to hurt himself in the second inning when he fouled a ball off the inside of his leg. Corey Patterson pinch hit for him in the fourth. In the fifth, Jerry Hairston Jr. moved to short stop, Ryan Freel moved to right field, and Patterson moved to center field.

UPDATE: An X-ray revealed that Keppinger fractured the patella in his left knee. He will have an MRI tomorrow.


I realize we don't know the severity of the break, but does anyone out there know the likely recovery time for such an injury?

reds44
05-13-2008, 09:18 PM
:(

Terrible news.

Caseyfan21
05-13-2008, 09:20 PM
Who comes up from AAA?

I'd say the most likely candidates are Janish, Jolbert Cabrera, or maybe Andy Green.

With Hairston probably getting a lot of SS time could they be tempted to bring up an OF'er?

Edit: Also Rosales

reds44
05-13-2008, 09:23 PM
I don't think Cabrera and Green are options. It's either Janish or Rosales. I'm going to go with Janish because he is a better fielder and Rosales is off to a slow start.

chicoruiz
05-13-2008, 09:25 PM
I know nobody wants to hear this, but what is Castro's status?

Caseyfan21
05-13-2008, 09:25 PM
I don't think Cabrera and Green are options. It's either Janish or Rosales. I'm going to go with Janish because he is a better fielder and Rosales is off to a slow start.

I would hope they bring Janish up and let him play every day. If he can hit .250 his defense makes it worth it.

lollipopcurve
05-13-2008, 09:25 PM
Janish -- put the defender there, hit him 8th and hope the other guys pick up the slack

jojo
05-13-2008, 09:25 PM
I hate to see anybody get hurt-especially a player who has paid his dues and is getting a chance to play everyday.

Jr for Miguel Cairo.....

reds44
05-13-2008, 09:26 PM
Griffey for Ronny Cedeno.

11larkin11
05-13-2008, 09:26 PM
I say bring up Janish because I would like to see what he can do, but I would like to see what Hairston can do with regular playing time first.

HotCorner
05-13-2008, 09:27 PM
Janish was pulled in the 8th inning tonight. Hmm ....

redsmetz
05-13-2008, 09:27 PM
Janish was pulled in the 8th inning tonight. Hmm ....

I wonder if it's serious enough that he'll go right to the 60 Day DL (thus freeing up a roster spot).

Caseyfan21
05-13-2008, 09:28 PM
Janish was pulled in the 8th inning tonight. Hmm ....

Do you know when that occurred relative to the Kepp news? If it was after I'd say he can pack his bags.

*BaseClogger*
05-13-2008, 09:29 PM
:(

Unleash Janish! :D

HotCorner
05-13-2008, 09:29 PM
It appears after the Kepp news. He was pulled in the bottom of the 8th for a pinch hitter. The game just went to the top of the 9th.

OnBaseMachine
05-13-2008, 09:30 PM
Very, very sad news. Losing Kepp's bat is going to hurt a bunch. You know what is really unfortunate? In the atbat he got hurt, he was ahead 3-1 in the count and took what looked to be ball four but the ump called it strike two. Next pitch is when he injured himself. If the ump calls that ball four then the injury never happens...crazy how things work.

OnBaseMachine
05-13-2008, 09:30 PM
Janish -- put the defender there, hit him 8th and hope the other guys pick up the slack

Agreed.

CTA513
05-13-2008, 09:33 PM
I hate to see this, because Keppinger was one of the few consistant players the Reds had.
If I had to pick his replacement for now I would go with Janish.

Cyclone792
05-13-2008, 09:33 PM
You don't want Jerry Hairston playing shortstop. The defensive difference between Janish and Hairston is significant, much bigger than the difference between say ... Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel or Corey Patterson and Jay Bruce.

Call Janish up and he should now be the team's regular shortstop. Bat the pitcher 8th, slide Janish into the 9th spot - he's perfect for this scenario - and get Dunn up in the lineup hitting 2nd.

RedsManRick
05-13-2008, 09:35 PM
You don't want Jerry Hairston playing shortstop. The defensive difference between Janish and Hairston is significant, much bigger than the difference between say ... Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel or Corey Patterson and Jay Bruce.

Call Janish up and he should now be the team's regular shortstop. Bat the pitcher 8th, slide Janish into the 9th spot - he's perfect for this scenario - and get Dunn up in the lineup hitting 2nd.

Dusty sees your suggest and raises you a "Paul Janish, your new #2 hitter".

fearofpopvol1
05-13-2008, 09:40 PM
Very disappointing news. The Reds are definitely going to miss his bat. Kepp leads the team in many offensive categories.

reds44
05-13-2008, 09:41 PM
Patterson
Dunn
Encarnacion
Votto
Phillips
Griffey
Bako
Janish

LoganBuck
05-13-2008, 09:51 PM
Is Neifi Perez available?

I agree on Janish. Bring him up and leave him alone. Bat him 8 or 9.

Cyclone792
05-13-2008, 09:53 PM
Is Neifi Perez available?

Dude, white that comment out! Do NOT let Dusty see that suggestion!

You want to talk about having nightmares, Patterson leading off and Neifi hitting 2nd would be a nightly one.

Sea Ray
05-13-2008, 09:56 PM
We're about to find out how good a player Keppinger really is. My bet is we're really going to miss him. He's the one starter this team could least afford to lose. The things he does to help this team win are voluminous as is the dropoff to the backup be it Janish or whoever. The bright spot is we aren't going to the playoffs anyway this year, let's see what we've got in Janish, Hairston and Co.

Pretty soon we'll wonder why we ever debated whether Keppinger is a starting SS.

Blitz Dorsey
05-13-2008, 10:02 PM
Janish will hit about .190 if he's the Reds starting SS. He's having a career year offensively at Louisville (.288, 4 HR) but I don't see him keeping that up. He will kill us offensively if he plays a lot. His career numbers in the minors are pretty bad to say the least.

I definitely don't think Hairston should be the everyday starter at SS, but he should at least split time with Janish. Hairston has impressed me with the way he's hitting the ball, his professional at bats and his baserunning.

And now that we actually need Alex Gonzalez, he's still not even close to ready. That guy is a piece of work. He always looks pudgy and out of shape to me, it's no wonder he can't stay healthy. That was yet another reason Krivsky got fired: Terrible contracts like that of Gonzalez.

Always Red
05-13-2008, 10:04 PM
I realize we don't know the severity of the break, but does anyone out there know the likely recovery time for such an injury?

I'm not an orthopedic surgeon, but I know (for a medical fact)that it takes 6 weeks for bones to heal. The patella is a free-floating bone, and is pulled both up and down by tendons, so it is always in motion. The only way to get bones to heal properly is to hold them still, somehow. If that means a leg cast, it'll take some rehab also to deal with the muscle atrophy. I'd guess that he is out for 2 months. :(

jojo
05-13-2008, 10:05 PM
When in doubt at shortstop, go with stellar defense.

Always Red
05-13-2008, 10:05 PM
And now that we actually need Alex Gonzalez, he's still not even close to ready. That guy is a piece of work. He always looks pudgy and out of shape to me, it's no wonder he can't stay healthy. That was yet another reason Krivsky got fired: Terrible contracts like that of Gonzalez.

I cannot blame Gonzalez for being hurt anymore than I can blame Keppinger for getting hurt.

Tom Servo
05-13-2008, 10:10 PM
And now that we actually need Alex Gonzalez, he's still not even close to ready. That guy is a piece of work. He always looks pudgy and out of shape to me, it's no wonder he can't stay healthy. That was yet another reason Krivsky got fired: Terrible contracts like that of Gonzalez.
Did Gonzo run over your dog or something? His baby was extremely ill last year and he still managed to put up a good season. Lay off the guy.

RedsManRick
05-13-2008, 10:11 PM
Thom and Jeff just said that Janish was pulled in the 8th inning in Louisville. Looks like he'll be a Red tomorrow.

SMcGavin
05-13-2008, 10:29 PM
Thom and Jeff just said that Janish was pulled in the 8th inning in Louisville. Looks like he'll be a Red tomorrow.

Last year he went .244/.358/.330 in AA, then .221/.278/.317 in AAA. Roll it together and you've got a .654 OPS, basically we are looking at Juan Castro 2.0 (except with actual good defense). We are really going to miss Keppinger.

LoganBuck
05-13-2008, 10:38 PM
Last year he went .244/.358/.330 in AA, then .221/.278/.317 in AAA. Roll it together and you've got a .654 OPS, basically we are looking at Juan Castro 2.0 (except with actual good defense). We are really going to miss Keppinger.

It makes bringing Jay Bruce up, mandatory. This lineup can not take another all glove no stick player. Patterson is bad enough, (luck caught up with him big time the last two days) but they can not run a lineup with both Janish and Patterson out there.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-13-2008, 10:39 PM
So we lose .100 to .150 in OPS, but gain a better glove at a defensive-oriented position.

I will miss Kepp, but I think some are overreacting. After announcing the news, Thom said the Reds just lost their best player. Holy hyperbole, batman!

If I had to pick, I'd take Kepp missing time over Dunn, Votto, Phillips, and EE. Maybe even Bako, at this point.

We'll be okay.

VR
05-13-2008, 10:41 PM
Last year he went .244/.358/.330 in AA, then .221/.278/.317 in AAA. Roll it together and you've got a .654 OPS, basically we are looking at Juan Castro 2.0 (except with actual good defense). We are really going to miss Keppinger.

I'm very OK w/ Janish. The defense just got a tremendously better. Kudos to Kepp for holding down the fort at SS, but he's nowhere near Janish w/ the glove. Kepp carried the team w/ clutch hitting.....time for the rest of the lineup to progress to the mean and all will be ok.

Falls City Beer
05-13-2008, 10:45 PM
So we lose .100 to .150 in OPS, but gain a better glove at a defensive-oriented position.

I will miss Kepp, but I think some are overreacting. After announcing the news, Thom said the Reds just lost their best player. Holy hyperbole, batman!

If I had to pick, I'd take Kepp missing time over Dunn, Votto, Phillips, and EE. Maybe even Bako, at this point.

We'll be okay.

I agree with everything but the last line. But that has little to do with Kepp.

jojo
05-13-2008, 10:46 PM
I will miss Kepp, but I think some are overreacting. After announcing the news, Thom said the Reds just lost their best player. Holy hyperbole, batman!

If I had to pick, I'd take Kepp missing time over Dunn, Votto, Phillips, and EE. Maybe even Bako, at this point.

We'll be okay.

Yep. The damage is that since Keppy was already a compromise the Reds don't even have that to fall back on now. Basically, the Reds lost their compromise.

It's not the defining moment of the season.

Big Klu
05-13-2008, 10:47 PM
Janish will hit about .190 if he's the Reds starting SS. He's having a career year offensively at Louisville (.288, 4 HR) but I don't see him keeping that up. He will kill us offensively if he plays a lot. His career numbers in the minors are pretty bad to say the least.

I definitely don't think Hairston should be the everyday starter at SS, but he should at least split time with Janish. Hairston has impressed me with the way he's hitting the ball, his professional at bats and his baserunning.

I think Paul Janish will be called up, and we will see a "platoon" between Janish and Hairston. Not a lefty-righty platoon, but an offense-defense platoon. Janish will see the bulk of the action at SS, but Hairston will occasionally play against some of the tougher pitchers. I also have been pleasantly surprised by what I have seen from Hairston. You mention his professionalism--I wonder if that is a byproduct of having a father who played in the big leagues.

Tony Cloninger
05-13-2008, 10:48 PM
JK is one of the only hitters...along with Votto who looks like a real so called "professional" hitter. He reminds me of Barry in the way he handles the bat....and this is something this lineup needs.

Caveat Emperor
05-13-2008, 10:50 PM
Last year he went .244/.358/.330 in AA, then .221/.278/.317 in AAA. Roll it together and you've got a .654 OPS, basically we are looking at Juan Castro 2.0 (except with actual good defense). We are really going to miss Keppinger.

Yup -- they'll miss Keppinger, but they have to make due with what they have.

Surprisingly, I agree with what Marty said tonight on the postgame show: Call up Janish, slot him at the bottom of the lineup, and tell him "We don't care what you hit, just play solid defense and hold things together until Gonzalez or Keppinger recover."

No need to put pressure on the kid expecting something out of him he simply doesn't have the tools to deliver.

RedlegJake
05-13-2008, 10:50 PM
Janish will give the Reds top defense at a critical position and he appears to have progressed with the bat at least a small bit - if he can OPS .650 his glove may be worth it.

reds44
05-13-2008, 10:51 PM
JK is one of the only hitters...along with Votto who looks like a real so called "professional" hitter. He reminds me of Barry in the way he handles the bat....and this is something this lineup needs.
Barry. As in Barry Larkin? Did you really just go there?

guttle11
05-13-2008, 10:52 PM
Keppinger getting hurt just twists my stomach in knots. He's the type of player you can't help but root for. He busts his tail for the team, gets the absolute most out of the talent he has, and does it all in a very professional manner.

I hate seeing guys like that go down with serious injuries, and I'm not talking about numbers or wins.

Big Klu
05-13-2008, 10:53 PM
I'm very OK w/ Janish. The defense just got a tremendously better. Kudos to Kepp for holding down the fort at SS, but he's nowhere near Janish w/ the glove. Kepp carried the team w/ clutch hitting.....time for the rest of the lineup to progress to the mean and all will be ok.

There is no progression to the mean--only regression.

REDREAD
05-13-2008, 10:56 PM
I know nobody wants to hear this, but what is Castro's status?

Someone signed him.. I think it was the Rockies.

This has got to be the curse of the Castro. We carry that guy for what seems like 10 years without ever having a situation like this, and then when we release him, suddenly we don't have a SS at all..

Caveat Emperor
05-13-2008, 10:57 PM
We carry that guy for what seems like 10 years without ever having a situation like this, and then when we release him, suddenly we don't have a SS at all..

Even if he was the on roster, you could make the argument that the same statement would still be true.

Screwball
05-13-2008, 10:59 PM
There is no progression to the mean--only regression.

Are you saying the offense is overachieving right now?

LoganBuck
05-13-2008, 11:02 PM
Dude, white that comment out! Do NOT let Dusty see that suggestion!

You want to talk about having nightmares, Patterson leading off and Neifi hitting 2nd would be a nightly one.

Wasn't Perez suspended for a second failed drug test last year? He may not be eligible to play.

You can bet Dusty is suggesting it.:thumbdown

REDREAD
05-13-2008, 11:03 PM
Even if he was the on roster, you could make the argument that the same statement would still be true.

Yeah, I'm not crying that Castro is gone.

It's just odd that we are finally in the spot Castro was supposedly carried for.. We need an emergency SS.. Not that Castro was necessarily qualified for that job, but Wayne thought he was.

In regards to the Gonzo discussion. It was a bad sign. He didn't have a good year last season. Sure, he hit a few HRs, but did little else. He was clearly on the decline and Wayne gave him a 3 year deal. I'm still confused why Patterson is almost unamiously viewed as a bad signing, yet people still defend the Gonzo signing which was a much worse risk and was for 3 years..

Caveat Emperor
05-13-2008, 11:03 PM
Wasn't Perez suspended for a second failed drug test last year?

He apparently tested negative for talent.

Cyclone792
05-13-2008, 11:06 PM
Someone signed him.. I think it was the Rockies.

This has got to be the curse of the Castro. We carry that guy for what seems like 10 years without ever having a situation like this, and then when we release him, suddenly we don't have a SS at all..

I'm happier tonight that Castro was released than I was the day Castro was actually released. The last thing I'd want is Castro actually playing full-time for two months, and that's exactly what would be happening if he was still on the roster.

I have a feeling we may see a harmful dose of Jerry Hairston, Jr. at shortstop soon, because I'm not confident that the Reds will play Janish regularly. Here's Hairston's time at shortstop during his professional career as a whole:

MLB: 9 games (35.2 innings) before tonight
AAA: 33 games
AA: 1 game
High-A: 65 games
Low-A: 0 games
Rookie Ball: 58 games

That's 166 games of shortstop in his professional career. And the worst thing is 123 of those games were in 1997 and 1998.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-13-2008, 11:07 PM
Since the 1998 draft with Kearns and Dunn, the Reds have had a pretty tough time of squeezing out major league talent from their drafts. With the call up of Janish, they now have had three make it within the last year. Votto (2002 class), Bailey (2004), and Janish (2004). Cueto makes it four, if you include L.A. signings.

Between those four and Kearns/Dunn, the Reds developed Coffey ('98), Broussard and Salmon (both '99), and Denorfia ('02).

Next up: Bruce ('05),

Maybe: Dickerson ('03), and Strait and Tatum (both '04)?

OnBaseMachine
05-13-2008, 11:08 PM
Hairston looked brutal at SS against the Astros a couple weeks back. A normal routine groundball went into CF as he lacked any range at all to make the play. Please call up Janish and insert him in as everyday shortstop and bat him eighth.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-13-2008, 11:10 PM
Hairston is NOT a SS.

Janish better play everyday.

I too am glad Castro is gone. Janish would have never been called up.

Big Klu
05-13-2008, 11:10 PM
Are you saying the offense is overachieving right now?

Sorry, I was making an attempt at sarcasm. Everybody is always talking about how So-and-so will "regress to the mean" whenever players are playing well, but nobody ever mentions the mean when players play horribly.

Razor Shines
05-13-2008, 11:11 PM
He apparently tested negative for talent.

Ah, that one's not always a career ender though.

redsfan4445
05-13-2008, 11:12 PM
They said on WLW after the game Janish is on his way up to be here for tomorrows game

*BaseClogger*
05-13-2008, 11:14 PM
In regards to the Gonzo discussion. It was a bad sign. He didn't have a good year last season. Sure, he hit a few HRs, but did little else. He was clearly on the decline and Wayne gave him a 3 year deal. I'm still confused why Patterson is almost unamiously viewed as a bad signing, yet people still defend the Gonzo signing which was a much worse risk and was for 3 years..

I completely agree. I don't get all the AGon love...

BuckeyeRedleg
05-13-2008, 11:15 PM
I completely agree. I don't get all the AGon love...

What AGon love? I see none of it.

redsfan4445
05-13-2008, 11:16 PM
Gonzo had a huge excuse for last year.. his son was in and out of the hospital most of the season.. Any father would have a hard time playing baseball or working at a regular job and not have their son on their mind all the time..

*BaseClogger*
05-13-2008, 11:17 PM
What AGon love? I see none of it.

okay... AGon defending?

Kc61
05-13-2008, 11:21 PM
Gonzo had a huge excuse for last year.. his son was in and out of the hospital most of the season.. Any father would have a hard time playing baseball or working at a regular job and not have their son on their mind all the time..

Gonzo would look pretty good if available now. The guy is a solid ballplayer, a decent sign by the Reds. Don't recall a top shortstop being available. He isn't being paid a huge amount.

I expect Hairston to start at shortstop with Janish coming in frequently in the late innings for defense. Janish deserves this shot and I expect him to be a favorable surprise. Not a starter, perhaps, but a very solid defensive-oriented backup.

Never thought Janish would be an important player this year, but he looks pretty important right now.

LoganBuck
05-13-2008, 11:32 PM
Since the 1998 draft with Kearns and Dunn, the Reds have had a pretty tough time of squeezing out major league talent from their drafts. With the call up of Janish, they now have had three make it within the last year. Votto (2002 class), Bailey (2004), and Janish (2004). Cueto makes it four, if you include L.A. signings.

Between those four and Kearns/Dunn, the Reds developed Coffey ('98), Broussard and Salmon (both '99), and Denorfia ('02).

Next up: Bruce ('05),

Maybe: Dickerson ('03), and Strait and Tatum (both '04)?

How could you forget Ryan Wagner, Dustin Mosely, Ryan Snare, Scott Dunn, Mike Neu, Dane Sardinha, and Steve Smitherman?

BuckeyeRedleg
05-13-2008, 11:46 PM
How could you forget Ryan Wagner, Dustin Mosely, Ryan Snare, Scott Dunn, Mike Neu, Dane Sardinha, and Steve Smitherman?

I missed Wagner.

Sardinha got 5 charity AB's in '03 and '05. Smitherman got 44 AB's in September '03.


None of the others sniffed the bigs with the Reds.

SMcGavin
05-13-2008, 11:48 PM
okay... AGon defending?

He was better than an average SS with the bat in 2007. Even if you think his defense isn't all it's cracked up to be, he was pretty good last season. I hope he gets healthy soon because I think Janish is going to really, really bad at the plate up here.

*BaseClogger*
05-13-2008, 11:51 PM
He was better than an average SS with the bat in 2007. Even if you think his defense isn't all it's cracked up to be, he was pretty good last season. I hope he gets healthy soon because I think Janish is going to really, really bad at the plate up here.

It would not suprise me at all to see Janish put up an OBP higher than AGon's 2007 OBP of .325. Janish's defense can make up for AGon's power, costing about $5M less...

fearofpopvol1
05-13-2008, 11:52 PM
The one stat I think a lot of people are overlooking is Jeff Keppinger lead the team in RBIs, despite the fact that he has typically batted 2nd or 7th. I think that says a lot. He's also 2nd in OBP (just barely behind Paul Bako and his breakout year) and has the best batting average on the team. Leads the team in average with RISP (actually leads the majors) and also leads the team with average with 2 outs (and it's not even close).

He doesn't really have much pop, but there's a bunch of other guys in the lineup that that do and until the Reds realize that, they're going to continue to lose games. The Reds have won a grand total of 1 game without hitting a home run. It's feast or famine with this offense and Keppinger helped stabilize that glaring weakness. It's pretty damn hard to win a lot of games if you can't manufacture runs.

His defense is not great, but I think his bat more than made up for it. I think this will be a bigger loss than many realize.

WVPacman
05-13-2008, 11:56 PM
This team has nothing but bad luck!! Everytime they get on a little role something bad happens and this is the worst thing that could happen.Kepp,was our best hitter and I'd even say best player as of today.I don't know what the reds are going to do but what ever they do they will not replace Kepp and his great play.

SMcGavin
05-13-2008, 11:57 PM
It would not suprise me at all to see Janish put up an OBP higher than AGon's 2007 OBP of .325. Janish's defense can make up for AGon's power, costing about $5M less...

Janish's "power" was a .325 slugging percentage across AA and AAA last year. Gonzalez was at .468 in MLB. Janish would have to be wearing a rocket pack for his defense to make up that gap.

Also Janish OBPed .329 last year and is at .341 in AAA right now, if I had to bet on it I'd take the under for a .325 OBP with the Reds.

I can't argue salary but since they are both already on the team, it doesn't really matter at this point.

*BaseClogger*
05-14-2008, 12:02 AM
Janish's "power" was a .325 slugging percentage across AA and AAA last year. Gonzalez was at .468 in MLB. Janish would have to be wearing a rocket pack for his defense to make up that gap.

Also Janish OBPed .329 last year and is at .341 in AAA right now, if I had to bet on it I'd take the under for a .325 OBP with the Reds.

I can't argue salary but since they are both already on the team, it doesn't really matter at this point.

I never said Janish would hit for power. AGon had a career year at the plate and still only OBPed .325. I doubt he will duplicate that OBP this year. That's all I need to know about a SS on the decline with overrated defense. Janish has a career .355 OBP in the minors, and I think his walk rate can increase over what it has been at AAA this season. I see Janish's defense as a 10 run improvement over the course of an entire season, which pretty much makes up for the power gap. Don't forget that AGon has a three year contract commitment making 15 times as much as Janish...

Highlifeman21
05-14-2008, 12:03 AM
The one stat I think a lot of people are overlooking is Jeff Keppinger lead the team in RBIs, despite the fact that he has typically batted 2nd or 7th. I think that says a lot. He's also 2nd in OBP (just barely behind Paul Bako and his breakout year) and has the best batting average on the team. Leads the team in average with RISP (actually leads the majors) and also leads the team with average with 2 outs (and it's not even close).

He doesn't really have much pop, but there's a bunch of other guys in the lineup that that do and until the Reds realize that, they're going to continue to lose games. The Reds have won a grand total of 1 game without hitting a home run. It's feast or famine with this offense and Keppinger helped stabilize that glaring weakness. It's pretty damn hard to win a lot of games if you can't manufacture runs.

His defense is not great, but I think his bat more than made up for it. I think this will be a bigger loss than many realize.

I'm sure many of us realize that it isn't good for the Reds to lose Jeff Keppinger, considering he was one of the only guys doing anything positive at the plate. To say we'll miss his bat might definitely be an understatement. Just a lil....

SMcGavin
05-14-2008, 12:10 AM
I never said Janish would hit for power. AGon had a career year at the plate and still only OBPed .325. That's all I need to know about a SS on the decline with overrated defense. Janish has a career .355 OBP in the minors, and I think his walk rate can increase over what it has been at AAA this season. I see Janish's defense as a 10 run improvement over the course of an entire season, which pretty much makes up for the power gap. Don't forget that AGon has a three year contract commitment making 15 times as much as Janish...

OK, forget Gonzalez for a second. My point isn't really to argue about him. What kind of numbers do you see Janish putting up this year? I'm gonna guess something like this:

.235/.305/.340 = .645 OPS
His ZiPS projection for 2008: .228/.294/.317 = .611 OPS

People are saying they can live with poor hitting from Janish as long as he plays good defense. That's fine but we need to consider how bad Janish is going to be. If he can OPS .700 or so, I can get on board with him as a stopgap. But I think he is going to be considerably worse than that.

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2008, 12:12 AM
I'm sure many of us realize that it isn't good for the Reds to lose Jeff Keppinger, considering he was one of the only guys doing anything positive at the plate. To say we'll miss his bat might definitely be an understatement. Just a lil....

It wasn't really aimed at anyone, but I keep reading posts that say something along the lines of the fact that "Kepp's only a single hitter," "he doesn't play good defense," "Janish will be make up for the hitting with his glove" and I think there is a lot more to it than that and those doubting will see the results soon enough, sadly.

WVRedsFan
05-14-2008, 12:12 AM
I'm sure many of us realize that it isn't good for the Reds to lose Jeff Keppinger, considering he was one of the only guys doing anything positive at the plate. To say we'll miss his bat might definitely be an understatement. Just a lil....

Fer sure.

What makes it all the more sad is that the Reds are woefully short on offense (not to mention defense) on the bench. Hatt can't hit leftys. Hairston is on a roll, but how long will it last? Gonzo is on the permanent DL. Freel will soon get back to his usual .255-.260. You know Patterson's story. Though Bako continues to hit, you have to wonder how long it will last. Valentin is almost forgotten. Ross is clueless at the plate (but his bunt tonight was a stroke of genius by someone).

There is no one to replace the RBI's Keppinger gave this team.

WVRedsFan
05-14-2008, 12:14 AM
It wasn't really aimed at anyone, but I keep reading posts that say something along the lines of the fact that "Kepp's only a single hitter," "he doesn't play good defense," "Janish will be make up for the hitting with his glove" and I think there is a lot more to it than that and those doubting will see the results soon enough, sadly.

I hate silver lining people. There is no silver lining here. Unfortunately.

*BaseClogger*
05-14-2008, 12:17 AM
OK, forget Gonzalez for a second. My point isn't really to argue about him. What kind of numbers do you see Janish putting up this year? I'm gonna guess something like this:

.235/.305/.340 = .645 OPS
His ZiPS projection for 2008: .228/.294/.317 = .611 OPS

People are saying they can live with poor hitting from Janish as long as he plays good defense. That's fine but we need to consider how bad Janish is going to be. If he can OPS .700 or so, I can get on board with him as a stopgap. But I think he is going to be considerably worse than that.

I can live with poor hitting from Janish because I see no better alternative within. Janish is certainly worse than Keppinger--that much should be obvious with the way I trumpet Kepp. My point is basically that I think Janish will be roughly as productive a SS as AGon if he were available. What I would expect from each in 2008:

Janish: .245/.315/.350 +10 runs defender
AGon: .260/.315/.450 neutral defender

Highlifeman21
05-14-2008, 12:21 AM
I wish all the best for Paul Janish, and I actually wanted him on the roster out of ST instead of Castro, but I don't think it's unreasonable to be skeptical that his glove can completely make up for his lack of stick.

I hope he proves me wrong, but that's a complete void of stick that needs to be compensated by an Ozzie Smith kinda D.

*BaseClogger*
05-14-2008, 12:26 AM
I wish all the best for Paul Janish, and I actually wanted him on the roster out of ST instead of Castro, but I don't think it's unreasonable to be skeptical that his glove can completely make up for his lack of stick.

I hope he proves me wrong, but that's a complete void of stick that needs to be compensated by an Ozzie Smith kinda D.

Who's offense is his glove compensating for? Keppinger? AGon? Castro? Hairston? NL average SS? Anyone feel free to clarify...

SMcGavin
05-14-2008, 12:27 AM
Janish: .245/.315/.350 +10 runs defender
AGon: .260/.315/.450 neutral defender

I think the difference between those two bats is more than 10 runs. Just to eyeball it, your AGon projection is reasonably close to Khalil Greene's 2007 which was good for 86 runs created. Your Janish projection is (creepily) close to Felipe Lopez's 2007 which was good for 69 runs created. I think your Gonzalez is a little better than the Greene line so the gap would probably be about 20. Somebody who is more versed on this could certainly figure it out better than my rough guess. But my theory is that being a + 10 runs defender does not make up the hitting gap you are projecting - not to mention Janish being a +10 runs defender relative to Gonzalez is not at all established.

SMcGavin
05-14-2008, 12:28 AM
Who's offense is his glove compensating for? Keppinger? AGon? Castro? Hairston? NL average SS? Anyone feel free to clarify...

NL average starting SS. If he comes up here and plays everyday his bat and glove should be measured relative to that.

*BaseClogger*
05-14-2008, 12:31 AM
I think the difference between those two bats is more than 10 runs. Just to eyeball it, your AGon projection is reasonably close to Khalil Greene's 2007 which was good for 86 runs created. Your Janish projection is (creepily) close to Felipe Lopez's 2007 which was good for 69 runs created. I think your Gonzalez is a little better than the Greene line so the gap would probably be about 20. Somebody who is more versed on this could certainly figure it out better than my rough guess. But my theory is that being a + 10 runs defender does not make up the hitting gap you are projecting - not to mention Janish being a +10 runs defender relative to Gonzalez is not at all established.

You could very well be correct as I am not sure either...

*BaseClogger*
05-14-2008, 12:33 AM
NL average starting SS. If he comes up here and plays everyday his bat and glove should be measured relative to that.

There is no way that Paul Janish's glove makes up for an NL average SS. I just don't see AGon as an NL average SS either, but AGon likely will still have him by a few runs. I still hate AGon's contract...

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2008, 12:34 AM
NL average starting SS. If he comes up here and plays everyday his bat and glove should be measured relative to that.

For some reason, I don't see Janish playing every day. I see Dusty giving more time to Hairston than anyone else at that position.

SMcGavin
05-14-2008, 12:44 AM
There is no way that Paul Janish's glove makes up for an NL average SS. I just don't see AGon as an NL average SS either, but AGon likely will still have him by a few runs. I still hate AGon's contract...

MLB average starting SS for 2006 was .280/.336/.422, your projection for AGon is close to that. If he's got average defense, he's pretty average overall. I think your disdain for his contract is clouding your view of him.

By the way I do think Janish should start over Jerry Hairston. My position is just that Janish is not an acceptable starter at SS. I think if the Reds are still trying to win this year, they should evaluate how long Gonzalez is going to be out, and if it's going to be a while still they should look outside the organization for SS help. If they decide this season's a waste and it's not worth it to give up talent for address the SS position for a few months this year, I can live with that decision. As long as they don't think SS is no problem because Janish's defense is good.

SMcGavin
05-14-2008, 12:46 AM
For some reason, I don't see Janish playing every day. I see Dusty giving more time to Hairston than anyone else at that position.

I think you are right. And I also think Hairston's defense at SS will have me begging for Janish and his .650 OPS.

*BaseClogger*
05-14-2008, 12:52 AM
MLB average starting SS for 2006 was .280/.336/.422, your projection for AGon is close to that. If he's got average defense, he's pretty average overall. I think your disdain for his contract is clouding your view of him.

By the way I do think Janish should start over Jerry Hairston. My position is just that Janish is not an acceptable starter at SS. I think if the Reds are still trying to win this year, they should evaluate how long Gonzalez is going to be out, and if it's going to be a while still they should look outside the organization for SS help. If they decide this season's a waste and it's not worth it to give up talent for address the SS position for a few months this year, I can live with that decision. As long as they don't think SS is no problem because Janish's defense is good.

I concede that AGon is pretty damn close to an average SS. You are right that I likely clouded my judgement... :)

So, playing Janish will cost the Reds about 5 runs or half of a win compared to an average SS over the next two months? 1. What SS outside of the organization can do better? 2. Is it worth it to surrender the talent?

Highlifeman21
05-14-2008, 12:54 AM
Who's offense is his glove compensating for? Keppinger? AGon? Castro? Hairston? NL average SS? Anyone feel free to clarify...

All of the above.

Castro is probably the only guy on that list that is offensively worse than Janish.

Defensively, Janish should trump all of them.

However, Keppinger was the incumbent @ SS, so Janish's glove now has to compensate for the absence of Keppinger in the lineup.

Caveat Emperor
05-14-2008, 12:54 AM
My position is just that Janish is not an acceptable starter at SS.

There really aren't a lot of teams out there that can lose a player at a premium defensive position and have an 'acceptable' starter waiting to take over.

Unless they've got a hot shot kid waiting in the wings at AAA, most teams backups at CF, SS, and C are pretty bad -- either judy hitting or playing defensively out of position.

AmarilloRed
05-14-2008, 12:58 AM
Paul Janish will clearly not be a slugger at SS; I don't think there is any disputing that. I also don't think he will provide the offense Keppinger or Gonzalez might be able to. However, as long as he plays good defense and can have a BA around .260 and a fairly acceptable OBP, I am willing to accept him as a starting shortstop in the short term.

SMcGavin
05-14-2008, 01:00 AM
2. Is it worth it to surrender the talent?

I don't know. Probably not. I'd imagine it takes a lot to get a decent SS in-season. 2009 should be the target for winning, and giving up talent that could help you then seems like a bad idea. For your first question, I'd have no idea where to look as my baseball knowledge is pretty limited to the Reds.

And Caveat, you may be right, but the Reds were one of those rare teams with depth since Kepp was really the insurance policy for Gonzalez (or the other way around, however you want to look at it).

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 01:56 AM
Janish gets the call to the big leagues

By Marc Katz

Staff Writer

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Louisville Louisville Bats shortstop Paul Janish received news of his call-up to the Cincinnati Reds Monday night, May 13, in the dugout at Louisville Slugger Field.

Manager Rick Sweet called for Luis Bolivar to pinch hit for Janish.

"I asked him what was going on," said Janish, who had a hit from two official at-bats in the game to raise his average to .293. 'He said, 'Well, you're going to the big leagues.'"

Janish, a former Dayton Dragon, said he felt bad for Reds shortstop Jeff Keppinger, but was excited about his first invitation to the Reds.

"It's still settling in," said Janish, who took a quick shower following the 5-3 Louisville victory over Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. "I'm driving up in the morning."

Janish said this was a great time to be called to the big leagues since his mother, Debbie, was visiting from Houston and his father, Tom, was flying in for the weekend on Friday. He said his dad would probably change flight plans.

Sweet said he received a call on his cell phone from Reds farm director Terry Reynolds just before Janish was to bat in the eighth.

"My phone's on 24 hours," Sweet said. "I asked Terry if he wanted me to take Paul out of the game and he told me he could stay in, but I did that once with a player who then broke his thumb that kept him from going up. I wasn't going to do that with Paul.

"He has matured into a very good player. He will be able to play up there and hold his own."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/05/13/ddn051408spjanishweb.html

Caveat Emperor
05-14-2008, 02:05 AM
And Caveat, you may be right, but the Reds were one of those rare teams with depth since Kepp was really the insurance policy for Gonzalez (or the other way around, however you want to look at it).

Kepp's a fine player, but a great shortstop he's not. He makes plays on the balls he gets to, but his range isn't what you'd like to see for the position. Without the numbers in front of me, I'd guess he ranks somewhere in the bottom third of all major league SS in zone rating. Even if you don't put any stock in such metrics, just watching the games can tell you that Kepp isn't as quick on his feet as the two players flanking him (EE & BP).

His bat was good enough to forgive a lot of defensive sins, however, and the team really doesn't have any prolific groundball pitchers on staff to suffer from his play. Even given that, you'll notice a pronounced difference defensively when Janish is in the lineup, I'd wager.

redsrule2500
05-14-2008, 02:24 AM
Well, this is terrible. Keppinger was our best offensive player in my opinion, and possibly the best player on the team overall. He played nearly everyday and was extremely consistent.

Screwball
05-14-2008, 02:33 AM
Keppinger was our best offensive player in my opinion, and possibly the best player on the team overall.

Based solely on 2008 offensively (at least as far as Bako is concerned), I'd go Votto, Bako, Edwin, Kepp, with Phillips nipping on his heels. Phillips could probably even be put ahead of Kepp (BP has a far superior OPS), but Phillips batting clean-up against righties has made me bitter.



and possibly the best player on the team overall.


Here I'd go Votto, Phillips, EE, Keppinger.

cumberlandreds
05-14-2008, 07:00 AM
Just saw this about Kep. Terrible news. He was the one consistent hitter throughout the season. I'm assuming he will be gone the rest of the season with this type of injury.
Best of luck to Janish! Sounds like a fine defensive player.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 08:12 AM
Good luck, Paul. Look forward to seeing the defense.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 08:27 AM
Jeff Keppinger is not better than Adam Dunn.

Kepp is a great guy and he has been a Godsend to this organization, considering he can play a few positions and he was had for free.

With that said, a guy like Gonzalez it seems is not liked around here, but Kepp is absolutely overvalued on this board and I would assume by the Cincinnati fan base, just like every other scrappy white dude that is underpaid, "works hard", gets the most out of his limited talent...blah, blah, blah.

See: Chris Stynes, Ryan Freel, Sean Casey, etc.

It's the Pete Rose effect.

The guy has a lifetime .800 OPS which is solid, but you'd think he was a perennial all-star after reading this board. I have read that he's an RBI producer. The guy has 600+ PA's and has 70 RBI. We read time and time again that Adam Dunn never knocks in runs and now I'm reading that Kepp does and is one of the best players on the team and the list does not include Dunn. Yet Dunn has a higher OPS and drives in more runs per plate appearance. Neither guy has a super glove. Maybe Kepp's is better, but how much? Enough to justify some of the over the top hyperbole I'm reading?

If the new ranking system of players is production per dollar, then Kepp leads the way. Otherwise, he's a solid player who will help the team, but to say he's the best or even better than Dunn, is way over the top, IMO.

coachw513
05-14-2008, 08:48 AM
Jeff Keppinger is not better than Adam Dunn.

Under my limited knowledge, for 40+ games under any measurable standard hasn't he been??...

I'm a Dunn fan, but am weary of looking at what he's capable of doing instead of the reality of what he currently is NOT doing...I want nothing more than AD to carry this team on his broad shoulders to a wonderful contract extension, but nothing is going on at present that stimulates my excitement that it is happening...

Just MHO...

Cyclone792
05-14-2008, 08:48 AM
I don't know. Probably not. I'd imagine it takes a lot to get a decent SS in-season. 2009 should be the target for winning, and giving up talent that could help you then seems like a bad idea. For your first question, I'd have no idea where to look as my baseball knowledge is pretty limited to the Reds.

Keppinger's RC/27 this year is 5.70.

There's only 14 shortstops in the majors right now with a RC/27 of at least 4.00. Of those 14, the only guy who would even be remotely possible to get without surrendering either significant talent and/or adding a large salary to the payroll would be Cristian Guzman. But there's a couple problems with Guzman, namely 1) he isn't really as good as he's played this season so he's likely to regress, 2) his defense is well below average, and 3) he plays for Jim Bowden.

That leaves you with a couple options:

1) Attempt to trade for a legit SS prospect who is not yet a regular MLB player
2) Attempt to trade for an MLB regular SS who isn't any good
3) Attempt to trade for an MLB reserve SS (or AAA fringe SS) who isn't any good
4) Find a temporary SS from your own system's depth

Similar to trading for an established, solid MLB shortstop, option #1 will cost you a significant amount of talent. And if you select Option 2 or 3, then you'll just be sacrificing talent in order to receive a player who probably isn't anymore productive than the player you'd have if you simply went with Option 4 (i.e. Janish).

Matt700wlw
05-14-2008, 08:54 AM
Here's my Jay Bruce case....

Hairston at SS...Freel your utility/backup infielder, Patterson your 4th outfielder, and Bruce your starting centerfielder.

Doesn't make sense based on positions...so, Paul Janish is the right choice...good luck, kid!!

lollipopcurve
05-14-2008, 08:54 AM
I think we can safely say at this point that Janish was a successful 5th round draft choice.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 08:56 AM
Under my limited knowledge, for 40+ games under any measurable standard hasn't he been??...

I'm a Dunn fan, but am weary of looking at what he's capable of doing instead of the reality of what he currently is NOT doing...I want nothing more than AD to carry this team on his broad shoulders to a wonderful contract extension, but nothing is going on at present that stimulates my excitement that it is happening...

Just MHO...

40 games is not enough to tell me Kepp is better, when I have years worth of data to prove otherwise.

We all know Dunn is slumping and Kepp is playing great through 40 games. But with that said, even with Kepp playing great and Dunn struggling, there is not much that separates them offensively.

Kepp .819 OPS (3 HR, 21 RBI) .809 OPS

Dunn .739 (6 HR, 19 RBI) career .894 OPS.

We all know it's a matter of time before Dunn surpasses him. To claim Kepp is better based on 2 months is short-sighted, IMO and a that kind of short-sightedness has been a thorn in this franchise's side for years.

mbgrayson
05-14-2008, 09:04 AM
His bat was good enough to forgive a lot of defensive sins, however, and the team really doesn't have any prolific groundball pitchers on staff to suffer from his play. Even given that, you'll notice a pronounced difference defensively when Janish is in the lineup, I'd wager.

Indeed. Kepp's line is .324/.373/.446 for an OPS of .819. He is 14th in the NL in batting average, and he has been a consistently good contact hitter. He only struck out 8 times in 39 games. We will miss him.

I hope Paul Janish does very well. I am looking forward to a great fielder at short, and I hope he can hit .250/.300/.350.

What is the ETA of Alex Gonzalez? Haven't heard any details for a while. Get well soon Country Kepp!

TRF
05-14-2008, 09:12 AM
I didn't read all 7 pages, but has anyone proposed Phillips to SS, Freel to 2B?

Seems like that fixes the leadoff spot and the D up the middle.

top6
05-14-2008, 09:18 AM
I didn't read all 7 pages, but has anyone proposed Phillips to SS, Freel to 2B?

Seems like that fixes the leadoff spot and the D up the middle.

That won't work. Phillips has to bat 3rd or 4th, and the SS has to bat 2nd.

lollipopcurve
05-14-2008, 09:35 AM
I didn't read all 7 pages, but has anyone proposed Phillips to SS, Freel to 2B?

Seems like that fixes the leadoff spot and the D up the middle.

That would greatly weaken the defense. Phillips would likely be very inconsistent at SS, and Freel is shaky at 2B.

coachw513
05-14-2008, 09:36 AM
40 games is not enough to tell me Kepp is better, when I have years worth of data to prove otherwise.

We all know Dunn is slumping and Kepp is playing great through 40 games. But with that said, even with Kepp playing great and Dunn struggling, there is not much that separates them offensively.

Kepp .819 OPS (3 HR, 21 RBI) .809 OPS

Dunn .739 (6 HR, 19 RBI) career .894 OPS.

We all know it's a matter of time before Dunn surpasses him. To claim Kepp is better based on 2 months is short-sighted, IMO and a that kind of short-sightedness has been a thorn in this franchise's side for years.

For his career, Griffey's been much better than Keppinger too...just sayin' ;)

Keppinger's been producing his numbers consistently for the past 2 seasons...do you think it's an aberration of his actual skills??...just asking...

I understand the career success of Dunn...I'm not saying that Keppinger is a better player for his career...but he's been SUBSTANTIALLY better for the Reds this season IMHO and it is a major blow to our club...

And I wish I could share your faith about Dunn...I want to, I really do...but at some point this year, he must produce more than he is doing at present...

Our club would be best served with Kepp's 2 year production continuing AND Dunn producing the mid-lineup value necessary for a player of his financial encumbrance to the organization...

But no, I do understand that Adam Dunn is historically a better player than Jeff Keppinger...

Dom Heffner
05-14-2008, 09:38 AM
To compare Dunn to Keppinger is a shoddy argument from the start.

What makes Keppinger valuable is that he hits that way for a shortstop.

If you move him to the outfield, he would lose value, so to compare him to Adam Dunn is not fair and truthfully, pointless.

Akinori Iwamura has tremendous value as a second baseman, not so much as a third baseman.

For me, when looking at someone's value, I look at the comps by position, not just some random player on the team, especially one playing a position that plays what is generally considered a power position.

Kepp's bat is a huge loss considering where he plays.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 09:45 AM
To compare Dunn to Keppinger is a shoddy argument from the start.

Agree.

It wouldn't even have been brought up had it not been for the several that mentioned Keppinger as the best player (or one of the best players) on the team, with Dunn excluded.

I think they will be fine with Janish. Better glove. Weaker bat. But the reason Kepp has been so valuable has been the slumping of Griffey and Dunn and I would bet that their bats will wake up to coincide with the arrival of Janish and his weaker (than Keppinger's) bat.

I honestly don't think this team's fortunes are ruined because Keppinger is out.

BRM
05-14-2008, 09:48 AM
I honestly don't think this team's fortunes are ruined because Keppinger is out.

Agreed. Their fortunes were ruined during the offseason.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 09:49 AM
Agreed. Their fortunes were ruined during the offseason.


boo YAH.

lollipopcurve
05-14-2008, 09:49 AM
I honestly don't think this team's fortunes are ruined because Keppinger is out.

Of course not -- he'll be out a couple months in a transitional year. In the short term, for the team to play well, Griffey and Dunn are going to have to start hitting. That was the case before Kepp got hurt, too. That's mainly where this team's fortunes ride, not on Keppinger's back.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 09:53 AM
I am confident Dunn will start tearing it up. He is close right now and just missing, but getting good wood on the ball.

Junior? Not so sure, but between him and Bruce I'm sure one of them will get hot and help carry this team (with Dunn). Add those to Votto, Phillips, and Encarnacion and you got the makings of a pretty potent lineup when it all comes around.

Hopefully it's sooner than later.

deltachi8
05-14-2008, 09:57 AM
I didn't read all 7 pages, but has anyone proposed Phillips to SS, Freel to 2B?

Seems like that fixes the leadoff spot and the D up the middle.

I would do that as I think Phillips would handle SS just fine. However, while Phillips would most likely be an upgrade defensively at SS over Keppinger, the drop off from Phillips to Freel at 2B would be huge.

coachw513
05-14-2008, 10:08 AM
I would do that as I think Phillips would handle SS just fine. However, while Phillips would most likely be an upgrade defensively at SS over Keppinger, the drop off from Phillips to Freel at 2B would be huge.

Would it be more or less than the drop-off from Kepp to Janish overall??...not that I'm advocating, but if the Phillips SS-Freel/Hairston 2B combo is better than Janish SS-Phillips 2B, then why not??...

Also, if Freel moves to 2B, it potentially expedites Bruce's callup, of which I'm all for...

deltachi8
05-14-2008, 10:13 AM
Would it be more or less than the drop-off from Kepp to Janish overall??...not that I'm advocating, but if the Phillips SS-Freel/Hairston 2B combo is better than Janish SS-Phillips 2B, then why not??...

Also, if Freel moves to 2B, it potentially expedites Bruce's callup, of which I'm all for...


Hopefully someone else can answer better than I can as i have not seen enough of Janish to have an opinion there. I have seen phillips play SS a few times in AAA and thought he would be an above average SS at the Major League level.

Cyclone792
05-14-2008, 10:23 AM
Would it be more or less than the drop-off from Kepp to Janish overall??...not that I'm advocating, but if the Phillips SS-Freel/Hairston 2B combo is better than Janish SS-Phillips 2B, then why not??...

Also, if Freel moves to 2B, it potentially expedites Bruce's callup, of which I'm all for...

IMO, I think Janish may very well be the best defensive shortstop the Reds have throughout their entire organization, from instructional league all the way up to the majors.

coachw513
05-14-2008, 10:38 AM
IMO, I think Janish may very well be the best defensive shortstop the Reds have throughout their entire organization, from instructional league all the way up to the majors.

Then that's a huge plus for our overall club makeup...

I hope he plays great!!

M2
05-14-2008, 10:42 AM
While I never like to see anyone get injured and I think Jeff Keppinger deserves a ton of credit for clawing his way into the majors, the unpleasant truth of the Reds at the moment is they rank 30th in MLB in DER at .676. Deficient defense is still crippling this club and Jeff Keppinger simply is not a major league SS.

Whether Janish will play and whether his glove will be as good as advertised (e.g. unlike Rainer Olmedo, Gookie Dawkins, Freddie Benavides, Kurt Stillwell, etc.) we'll see. A .600ish OPS would undo anything a good glove would add, but I suspect plus defense at shortstop would render some dramatic improvement on the IF.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 10:45 AM
I think Volquez will benefit the most among Reds starters of the upgrade defensively at SS with Janish. Volquez is a strikeout pitcher first (10.61 K/9) but he also induces a solid amount of groundballs (62 GO/33 FO or a 1.88 G/F ratio). I'll miss Keppinger's bat badly but the defensive upgrade from Kepp to Janish will be welcoming. Hopefully Dusty does the right thing and starts Janish at SS and bats him 8th everyday.

westofyou
05-14-2008, 10:45 AM
While I never like to see anyone get injured and I think Jeff Keppinger deserves a ton of credit for clawing his way into the majors, the unpleasant truth of the Reds at the moment is they rank 30th in MLB in DER at .676. Deficient defense is still crippling this club and Jeff Keppinger simply is not a major league SS.

Whether Janish will play and whether his glove will be as good as advertised (e.g. unlike Rainer Olmedo, Gookie Dawkins, Freddie Benavides, Kurt Stillwell, etc.) we'll see. A .600ish OPS would undo anything a good glove would add, but I suspect plus defense at shortstop would render some dramatic improvement on the IF.

Yep, I like Jeff Keppinger, but he's not a MLB SS.

The sooner the Reds fans quit pretending that the sooner they can move on and maybe see what one resembles.

lollipopcurve
05-14-2008, 10:47 AM
the unpleasant truth of the Reds at the moment is they rank 30th in MLB in DER at .676. Deficient defense is still crippling this club and Jeff Keppinger simply is not a major league SS.

I suspect the main culprit is the OF, not SS.

jojo
05-14-2008, 10:48 AM
I suspect the main culprit is the OF, not SS.

Or both.

M2
05-14-2008, 10:51 AM
Or both.

Exactly. It's a team accomplishment. Horrific defense in the OF corners certainly is a big contributor, but I'd like to see what happened if the Reds put a quality SS and RF in the mix.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 10:56 AM
The defense has a chance to go from being the worst defense in baseball to maybe one of the better defenses later on this season. Kepp will be replaced by Janish at SS and Griffey will be replaced by Bruce in RF. That's the big one there - Bruce for Griffey. The defense improves drastically with that move. That then gives the Reds a plus defender in RF, a glove glove caliber CFer in Patterson, a rangy middle infield with a rangy third baseman and a first baseman who - while not gold glove caliber - has been solid. If/when Dunn is traded you have think his replacement will be better with the glove.

Roy Tucker
05-14-2008, 10:59 AM
I don't expect the Reds to expend any major capital to acquire a replacement SS. Let's see what Janish can do and go from there. I'd expect him to get the majority of the SS playing time with Hairston filling in against tough pitchers.

The Reds have already been pretty lucky in that Keppinger provided quality backup to Gonzalez. Just like with Bakos.

jojo
05-14-2008, 11:06 AM
Exactly. It's a team accomplishment. Horrifice defense in the OF corners certainly is a big contributor, but I'd like to see what happened if the Reds put a quality SS and RF in the mix.

I obviously have a bias toward the impact of defense but it's interesting that two of the most improved teams this season based upon record (Tampa and Baltimore) are also two of the most improved teams defensively.

Caveats apply (it's still a young season, rosters are complicated etc) and certainly I'm not arguing the differences in either team between this and last season are entirely defense related. That said, their team defenses are playing a large role IMHO (heck, the O's traded away one of the best lefties in the AL-certain local radio personalities can take that and chew on it a while...)

Anyway, I was ruined by watching the 2001 Ms play defense. To me great defense just makes beautiful baseball.

westofyou
05-14-2008, 11:15 AM
Anyway, I was ruined by watching the 2001 Ms play defense.

Me?

I was ruined by turf, the game doesn't look the way it did when my baseball mind was being molded, in fact on the field it seems slow much slower.

Will M
05-14-2008, 11:15 AM
The defense has a chance to go from being the worst defense in baseball to maybe one of the better defenses later on this season. Kepp will be replaced by Janish at SS and Griffey will be replaced by Bruce in RF. That's the big one there - Bruce for Griffey. The defense improves drastically with that move. That then gives the Reds a plus defender in RF, a glove glove caliber CFer in Patterson, a rangy middle infield with a rangy third baseman and a first baseman who - while not gold glove caliber - has been solid. If/when Dunn is traded you have think his replacement will be better with the glove.

agree. i for one am looking forward to a team that plays good D. it has been a long long time.

i often think back to the 1990 team. they won with an ace, a great pen, clutch hitting, small ball & great defense. i think Eric Davis led the team with 86 rbis.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 11:19 AM
Anyway, I was ruined by watching the 2001 Ms play defense. To me great defense just makes beautiful baseball.

When I was younger, I used to think defense in baseball wasn't important at all. Now that I've gotten older and watched the Reds play defense, I've realized how foolish I was for thinking that. I've realized just how important good defense is in major league baseball. Look at the Cardinals for example, they've run a bunch of retreads out to the mound and found success because of a great defense behind them. Look at the 1999 Reds - not a dominant starter in the bunch but they pitched solid because they had a great defense behind them. I only hope Walt can improve this squad.

westofyou
05-14-2008, 11:20 AM
i think Eric Davis led the team with 86 rbis.

Different game then, only 11 guys had 100 RBI in 1990, 32 last year alone.


SEASON
1990

RBI RBI
1 Cecil Fielder 132
2 Matt Williams 122
3 Bobby Bonilla 120
4 Kelly Gruber 118
5 Joe Carter 115
6 Barry Bonds 114
T7 Mark McGwire 108
T7 Darryl Strawberry 108
9 Jose Canseco 101
T10 Ryne Sandberg 100
T10 Andre Dawson 100
12 Tim Wallach 98
13 Ruben Sierra 96
T14 Will Clark 95
T14 Candy Maldonado 95
T14 Eddie Murray 95

CrackerJack
05-14-2008, 11:25 AM
To me great defense just makes beautiful baseball.

Agree completely, I would go to games in the 80's and 90's just to watch Larkin play SS - thought it was nerdy as all get out but I was the only one in my section who stood up and appreciated everything he did defensively in his prime - it was an honor to watch that. Davis was another one.

Same goes for the BRM in the 70's, as a little leaguer we'd go and watch them take infield practice before games just to watch what perfectionists they were - all were just masters of their craft and true professionals in that regard. The throws they'd make were perfect every time and like a musician, came about from years of repetition and practice beyond what was required, you could appreciate why they were the best of the best.

It's sad that's been discarded somewhat for huge guns and HR's and the ESPN generation.

Not sure why I went off on that but the most enjoyable part of watching baseball still for me, is good defense. Watching this team over the last 5-7 years has made me ill and lose respect for today's pro's in that regard.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 11:27 AM
The OF, SS, 3rd, and yes, catcher are all culprits.

I think the corner this team will turn (if they wish to turn it) lies in defense, an improved pen, and some more stability in the rotation.

Heath
05-14-2008, 11:35 AM
The question with the above if Janish starts at SS and Patterson in CF, is if the lineup can handle those outs. No question, the defense is solid.

Me? I'd put Janish at SS, hit him 8/9 and let it ride. Is there a sliding scale of what a career minor league .736 OPS translates to at the big league level?

deltachi8
05-14-2008, 11:35 AM
The OF, SS, 3rd, and yes, catcher are all culprits.

I think the corner this team will turn (if they wish to turn it) lies in defense, an improved pen, and some more stability in the rotation.

But wait, that's four corners to turn, doesn't that place them at the nexus of the universe?

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 11:40 AM
The OF, SS, 3rd, and yes, catcher are all culprits.

I think the corner this team will turn (if they wish to turn it) lies in defense, an improved pen, and some more stability in the rotation.

I don't put 3B on the list. Edwin Encarnacion's throwing errors don't bother me as much as others. He's got great range over there and makes plays that most 3B don't make. I'll take a rangy 3B who will commit an occasional throwing error over a range challenged fielder who will make good throws but not cover as much ground. FWIW, David Wright has as many errors as EdE.

M2
05-14-2008, 11:42 AM
I was ruined by turf, the game doesn't look the way it did when my baseball mind was being molded, in fact on the field it seems slow much slower.

Me too. I'm never going to get used to the lack of pace in the game played on grass.

Highlifeman21
05-14-2008, 11:43 AM
I didn't read all 7 pages, but has anyone proposed Phillips to SS, Freel to 2B?

Seems like that fixes the leadoff spot and the D up the middle.

Phillips @ SS, and then we have multiple options @ 2B (Freel, Hairston, I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody).

But, in the short-term, I'd rather see what kind of D Janish can play at the big league level, and stomach whatever offensive void he brings to the plate.

M2
05-14-2008, 11:46 AM
I think the corner this team will turn (if they wish to turn it) lies in defense, an improved pen, and some more stability in the rotation.

One of the reasons I'd like to see an immediate defensive upgrade is I want to see how far it can go in creating an improved pen and a more stable rotation.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 11:48 AM
One of the reasons I'd like to see an immediate defensive upgrade is I want to see how far it can go in creating an improved pen and a more stable rotation.

Maybe. But there are some seriously low-voltage arms in the pen.

Chip R
05-14-2008, 11:50 AM
Sad to see that happen to Keppinger.

My question is, what do we do with him next year if he isn't the SS?

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 11:51 AM
I don't put 3B on the list. Edwin Encarnacion's throwing errors don't bother me as much as others. He's got great range over there and makes plays that most 3B don't make. I'll take a rangy 3B who will commit an occasional throwing error over a range challenged fielder who will make good throws but not cover as much ground. FWIW, David Wright has as many errors as EdE.

As I've stated many times before, it's not necessarily the errors (though I don't like his pretty clear lack of focus at times); it's that EdE is a slow defensive worker--his turns and pivots and transfers are cumbersome and wholly without the speed and fluidity that can turn force-outs into double-plays, etc.

lollipopcurve
05-14-2008, 11:52 AM
Maybe. But there are some seriously low-voltage arms in the pen.

Bring up Herrera. He throws stuff in the low 60s-high 50s and can't crack 90.

lollipopcurve
05-14-2008, 11:53 AM
As I've stated many times before, it's not necessarily the errors (though I don't like his pretty clear lack of focus at times); it's that EdE is a slow defensive worker--his turns and pivots and transfers are cumbersome and wholly without the speed and fluidity that can turn force-outs into double-plays, etc.

Not true. Did you see the way he played Amezaga's bunt last night? He's plenty quick over there, both on his feet and with his transfer/release.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 11:54 AM
Not true. Did you see the way he played Amezaga's bunt last night? He's plenty quick over there, both on his feet and with his transfer/release.

His feet are exceedingly quick--which makes up for a lot of his poor transfers.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 11:57 AM
As I've stated many times before, it's not necessarily the errors (though I don't like his pretty clear lack of focus at times); it's that EdE is a slow defensive worker--his turns and pivots and transfers are cumbersome and wholly without the speed and fluidity that can turn force-outs into double-plays, etc.

I've gotta say, I haven't noticed those things.

BTW, please bring up Jay Bruce to compensate for the offensive downgrade of Kepp to Janish. In two atbats today Bruce has walked and hit a 2-run triple off the CF wall. He's now hitting a robust .357 with a 1.015 OPS.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 12:00 PM
BTW, please bring up Jay Bruce to compensate for the offensive downgrade of Kepp to Janish. In two atbats today Bruce has walked and hit a 2-run triple off the CF wall. He's now hitting a robust .357 with a 1.015 OPS.

No argument there. It's past time.

Cyclone792
05-14-2008, 12:07 PM
I've gotta say, I haven't noticed those things.

BTW, please bring up Jay Bruce to compensate for the offensive downgrade of Kepp to Janish. In two atbats today Bruce has walked and hit a 2-run triple off the CF wall. He's now hitting a robust .357 with a 1.015 OPS.

I'd be shocked if the Reds don't hold out to clear Super Two status since it's already mid May and there's very little time remaining. By my calculations, it looks like the "safe" date to call Bruce up would be May 24th, a Saturday when the Reds are in San Diego. If they waited that long then they'd likely then elect to hold off until returning home on Tuesday, May 27th when the Pirates roll in.

The Reds have held out for seven weeks now on Bruce; I'm thinking they'll keep their hands off the trigger for two more weeks. But stranger things have happened so you never know.

FWIW, it looks like the Brewers held out in calling up Ryan Braun last year until quite possibly the very exact "safe" day. Braun was hitting .342/.418/.701/1.119 in AAA and the Brewers called him up on May 25th.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 12:09 PM
I'd be shocked if the Reds don't hold out to clear Super Two status since it's already mid May and there's very little time remaining. By my calculations, it looks like the "safe" date to call Bruce up would be May 24th, a Saturday when the Reds are in San Diego. If they waited that long then they'd likely then elect to hold off until returning home on Tuesday, May 27th when the Pirates roll in.

The Reds have held out for seven weeks now on Bruce; I'm thinking they'll keep their hands off the trigger for two more weeks. But stranger things have happened so you never know.

Ah, good catch cyclone. If that's the case then it would make no sense to call him up now. Might as well hold off until the 25th.

Bruce walked again, he's 1-for-1 with a 2-run triple and two walks.

Will M
05-14-2008, 12:12 PM
Sad to see that happen to Keppinger.

My question is, what do we do with him next year if he isn't the SS?

1. I still think it is possible EE moves to LF. Kep +- Rosales could be at 3B.

2. Superutility guy playing 120 games a year?

3. LF?

M2
05-14-2008, 12:15 PM
Maybe. But there are some seriously low-voltage arms in the pen.

I disagree. For instance, the Rays have 6.77 K/9 in the pen with a 3.16 ERA. The Reds have a 7.65 K/9 with a 4.34 ERA. Walks and SLG allowed filter into the discussion as well, but the Reds pen allows a 9.49 H/9 while the Rays pen allows a 6.84 H/9. Some of that is luck based, but if the team played solid defense behind the pitchers, we'd be looking at a far different situation.

Overall, the Reds have allowed a 9.46 H/9 despite having an MLB-best 8.09 K/9. (and 2nd place isn't even close). A solid defense would be worth an extra out a game and a good defense would be worth 1.5 extra outs a game. That's just balls in play converted to outs. It doesn't even take into account fewer extra bases taken on OFs slow to get to the ball or fewer instances of pitchers working from the stretch. Extra outs tend to have a snowball effect (a key 3rd out converted by the defense can save you multiple hits that might have followed it).

With defense this bad its nearly impossible to assess the pitching, but pretty much everyone in that staff stands to improve if they were backed by a defense capable of doing its job.

Chip R
05-14-2008, 12:16 PM
1. I still think it is possible EE moves to LF. Kep +- Rosales could be at 3B.

2. Superutility guy playing 120 games a year?

3. LF?


I'm thinking Door #3.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 12:39 PM
I disagree. For instance, the Rays have 6.77 K/9 in the pen with a 3.16 ERA. The Reds have a 7.65 K/9 with a 4.34 ERA. Walks and SLG allowed filter into the discussion as well, but the Reds pen allows a 9.49 H/9 while the Rays pen allows a 6.84 H/9. Some of that is luck based, but if the team played solid defense behind the pitchers, we'd be looking at a far different situation.

Overall, the Reds have allowed a 9.46 H/9 despite having an MLB-best 8.09 K/9. (and 2nd place isn't even close). A solid defense would be worth an extra out a game and a good defense would be worth 1.5 extra outs a game. That's just balls in play converted to outs. It doesn't even take into account fewer extra bases taken on OFs slow to get to the ball or fewer instances of pitchers working from the stretch. Extra outs tend to have a snowball effect (a key 3rd out converted by the defense can save you multiple hits that might have followed it).

With defense this bad its nearly impossible to assess the pitching, but pretty much everyone in that staff stands to improve if they were backed by a defense capable of doing its job.

I don't disagree at all that defense will make a big difference. What I'm saying is very simple--Burton, Mercker, Bray, Weathers, Affeldt--don't represent high-voltage arms (Cordero excepted, obviously). I think that K/9 is likely headed well down for both the pen and rotation, fwiw.

Great defense would make them passable--in the way great defense has made Ryan Franklin, et al passable in St. Louis. But if this team is to matter, they'll need a couple of more electric arms in the pen, and by electric I don't mean fool's gold like Bray and Burton.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 12:41 PM
But if this team is to matter, they'll need a couple of more electric arms in the pen.

Josh Roenicke.

M2
05-14-2008, 12:56 PM
I don't disagree at all that defense will make a big difference. What I'm saying is very simple--Burton, Mercker, Bray, Weathers, Affeldt--don't represent high-voltage arms (Cordero excepted, obviously). I think that K/9 is likely headed well down for both the pen and rotation, fwiw.

Great defense would make them passable--in the way great defense has made Ryan Franklin, et al passable in St. Louis. But if this team is to matter, they'll need a couple of more electric arms in the pen, and by electric I don't mean fool's gold like Bray and Burton.

I'm not worried about the K/9 in the rotation. Those guys have the voltage necessary to continue what they're doing. Affeldt and Burton are going to K fewer hitters as the season wears on though others might K more hitters to balance it out.

I'm all for the team getting a higher voltage pen, but the Reds are no worse off in that department than any other team in the NL Central. So while it could be better, this bullpen could very well get the job done if it were backed by a capable defense. More importantly, I'm not sure how you go about determining which arms in the bullpen work and don't work until you put a reasonable defense behind them.

jojo
05-14-2008, 01:36 PM
The question with the above if Janish starts at SS and Patterson in CF, is if the lineup can handle those outs. No question, the defense is solid.

Me? I'd put Janish at SS, hit him 8/9 and let it ride. Is there a sliding scale of what a career minor league .736 OPS translates to at the big league level?

While not a direct sliding scale, this is what Pecota's weighted mean predicted for Janish as a major leaguer this season: .245/.318/.363. This is currently what the league is doing at short: .273/.337/.401.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 01:39 PM
Ah, good catch cyclone. If that's the case then it would make no sense to call him up now. Might as well hold off until the 25th.

Bruce walked again, he's 1-for-1 with a 2-run triple and two walks.

Here's another Jay Bruce update:

He is 3-for-3 today with a double, triple, homerun, and two walks. He's now hitting .366 with a 1.060 OPS. Wow. Both his double and triple were hit off the wall so he has come close to a three homerun game.

oregonred
05-14-2008, 01:50 PM
Here's another Jay Bruce update:

He is 3-for-3 today with a double, triple, homerun, and two walks. He's now hitting .366 with a 1.060 OPS. Wow. Both his double and triple were hit off the wall so he has come close to a three homerun game.

Wow, kid is a monster and should make the Reds second half of the year a blast to watch. At this point, I would definitely agree with the May 26-27 callup date noted above to avoid the super-2 rule...

oregonred
05-14-2008, 01:53 PM
I disagree. For instance, the Rays have 6.77 K/9 in the pen with a 3.16 ERA. The Reds have a 7.65 K/9 with a 4.34 ERA. Walks and SLG allowed filter into the discussion as well, but the Reds pen allows a 9.49 H/9 while the Rays pen allows a 6.84 H/9. Some of that is luck based, but if the team played solid defense behind the pitchers, we'd be looking at a far different situation.

Overall, the Reds have allowed a 9.46 H/9 despite having an MLB-best 8.09 K/9. (and 2nd place isn't even close). A solid defense would be worth an extra out a game and a good defense would be worth 1.5 extra outs a game. That's just balls in play converted to outs. It doesn't even take into account fewer extra bases taken on OFs slow to get to the ball or fewer instances of pitchers working from the stretch. Extra outs tend to have a snowball effect (a key 3rd out converted by the defense can save you multiple hits that might have followed it).

With defense this bad its nearly impossible to assess the pitching, but pretty much everyone in that staff stands to improve if they were backed by a defense capable of doing its job.

Perfectly stated. With the added note that a great defensive play often has the reverse impact of giving up extra outs. Jacking up the pitching staff, improving the team morale and peaking the interest of the fans. The 2001 Mariners were indeed a thing of beauty to watch.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 01:54 PM
I'd be shocked if the Reds don't hold out to clear Super Two status since it's already mid May and there's very little time remaining. By my calculations, it looks like the "safe" date to call Bruce up would be May 24th, a Saturday when the Reds are in San Diego. If they waited that long then they'd likely then elect to hold off until returning home on Tuesday, May 27th when the Pirates roll in.

The Reds have held out for seven weeks now on Bruce; I'm thinking they'll keep their hands off the trigger for two more weeks. But stranger things have happened so you never know.

FWIW, it looks like the Brewers held out in calling up Ryan Braun last year until quite possibly the very exact "safe" day. Braun was hitting .342/.418/.701/1.119 in AAA and the Brewers called him up on May 25th.

Cyclone, I'm trying to explain this to a friend. Do I have this right?

Let's say Bruce is called up in late May/early June and plays through the year, he will have something like 120 days of ML service (0.120).

Next year he plays the whole season. By next late May/Early June when he hits the 1st anniversary of his call-up, his service time will be 1.000 (1 year). On the next day it will be 1.001 and he'll be sitting at 1.120 after the 2009 season and 2.120 after the 2010 season. Players get arbitration when they come into a year with 3 years (3.000) ML service time, but some get it if they are in the top 16% ("Super Two") of their group within year 2 (2.00-2.171) and nothing at or below 2.120 has ever made "Super Two".

So, the Reds are getting Bruce for the major league minimum (400-500K) in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. If they had already called him up, he'd be past 2.120 after 2010 and could possibly get "super-two" status, which would mean arbitration in 2011 and a whole boatload of dollars if he is the player we think he'll be. It also means moving his free agency year up to 2014, instead of 2015.

Otherwise, the arbitration clock starts in 2012 and also counts down to Free Agency.

At this rate:

2008 (0.120 service time after season)
2009 (1.120 service time after season)
2010 (2.120 service time after season)
2011 (3.120 service time after season)

2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #1 (4.120 service time after season)
2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (5.120 service time after season)
2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (6.120 service time after season)

2015 FREE AGENT

oregonred
05-14-2008, 01:58 PM
I believe super-2 has no impact on FA date. Bruce would be under Reds control through 2014 regardless of whether he would be a super-2 or not this season.

M2
05-14-2008, 01:58 PM
Perfectly stated. With the added note that a great defensive play often has the reverse impact of giving up extra outs. Jacking up the pitching staff, improving the team morale and peaking the interest of the fans. The 2001 Mariners were indeed a thing of beauty to watch.

Same thing with the 1999 Reds. Those were, arguably, the two best defensive teams of the past decade. They rank #1 and #2 in DER - .735 for the '01 Mariners and .731 for the '99 Reds.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 02:00 PM
I believe super-2 has no impact on FA date. Bruce would be under Reds control through 2014 regardless of whether he would be a super-2 or not this season.


So if he got "super-2", he gets four years of arbitration, instead of three?

oregonred
05-14-2008, 02:02 PM
Same thing with the 1999 Reds. Those were, arguably, the two best defensive teams of the past decade. They rank #1 and #2 in DER - .735 for the '01 Mariners and .731 for the '99 Reds.

I didn't realize the '99 Reds rated that highly. If only I could think of the name of that guy that played CF for both of those teams ;)

oregonred
05-14-2008, 02:04 PM
So if he got "super-2", he gets four years of arbitration, instead of three?

correct

Cyclone792
05-14-2008, 02:45 PM
Cyclone, I'm trying to explain this to a friend. Do I have this right?

Let's say Bruce is called up in late May/early June and plays through the year, he will have something like 120 days of ML service (0.120).

Next year he plays the whole season. By next late May/Early June when he hits the 1st anniversary of his call-up, his service time will be 1.000 (1 year). On the next day it will be 1.001 and he'll be sitting at 1.120 after the 2009 season and 2.120 after the 2010 season. Players get arbitration when they come into a year with 3 years (3.000) ML service time, but some get it if they are in the top 16% ("Super Two") of their group within year 2 (2.00-2.171) and nothing at or below 2.120 has ever made "Super Two".

So, the Reds are getting Bruce for the major league minimum (400-500K) in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. If they had already called him up, he'd be past 2.120 after 2010 and could possibly get "super-two" status, which would mean arbitration in 2011 and a whole boatload of dollars if he is the player we think he'll be. It also means moving his free agency year up to 2014, instead of 2015.

Otherwise, the arbitration clock starts in 2012 and also counts down to Free Agency.

At this rate:

2008 (0.120 service time after season)
2009 (1.120 service time after season)
2010 (2.120 service time after season)
2011 (3.120 service time after season)

2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #1 (4.120 service time after season)
2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (5.120 service time after season)
2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (6.120 service time after season)

2015 FREE AGENT

I think oregonred answered your main question, but this is the outline of the two scenarios here:

Reds Wait to Promote Bruce: No Super-Two Scenario

2008 (0.120 service time after season)
2009 (1.120 service time after season)
2010 (2.120 service time after season)
2011 (3.120 service time after season)

2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #1 (4.120 service time after season)
2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (5.120 service time after season)
2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (6.120 service time after season)

---------

Reds Promote Bruce Now, He Becomes Super-Two

2008 (0.135 service time after season)
2009 (1.135 service time after season)
2010 (2.135 service time after season)

2011 Super-Two, gets arbitration year #1 (3.135 service time after season)
2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (4.135 service time after season)
2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (5.135 service time after season)
2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #4 (6.135 service time after season)

---------

The difference is basically the 2011 season and what the Reds will pay Bruce in that season.

If he's not a Super-Two, then they'd pay him probably around 500k to a million bucks (most teams will pay a couple hundred thousand more to star players during those league min years as a sign of good faith).

Or they bring him up now, he becomes Super-Two, and he goes to arbitration in 2011. Then the Reds could be paying him well ... who knows. Maybe $3 mil if hasn't produced much. Maybe $6 mil if he produces ok. Maybe $10 mil if he explodes.

Free agent service time will not be affected. My guess is Bruce being a Super-Two would cost the Reds somewhere between $5-10 mil during the 2011 season. That's when fans have to ask themselves if two weeks of Bruce in May, 2008 is worth paying him an extra $5-10 mil in 2011.

Will M
05-14-2008, 02:46 PM
correct

then lets just get him up here now. he is on a roll and would be a big boost offensively and defensively (RF) to the Reds this year.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 03:04 PM
then lets just get him up here now. he is on a roll and would be a big boost offensively and defensively (RF) to the Reds this year.

Even if they were assured of not having to worry about "super two" by calling him up today, what to do with Griffey?

Or are we advocating playing Bruce in CF? I'd rather have Bruce in RF and Patterson in CF than Bruce in CF and Griffey in RF.

Griffey needs to be traded or benched and he's not going to be benched.

It's a very delicate situation and these are the type of situations this franchise has failed at many times over the years in attempts to not hurt feelings.

jojo
05-14-2008, 03:07 PM
As a tangent, concerning issues surrounding compensation (though super 2 doesn't affect free agency) contrast Bruce's potential situation with how Bavasi handled the call ups of Clement and Wlad. If Bavasi would've waited just another week to call them up, it would've essentially gave the Ms another year of control of each player due to service time issues.

Will M
05-14-2008, 03:18 PM
Even if they were assured of not having to worry about "super two" by calling him up today, what to do with Griffey?

Or are we advocating playing Bruce in CF? I'd rather have Bruce in RF and Patterson in CF than Bruce in CF and Griffey in RF.

Griffey needs to be traded or benched and he's not going to be benched.

It's a very delicate situation and these are the type of situations this franchise has failed at many times over the years in attempts to not hurt feelings.

Get Griffey out of town ASAP and replace him with Bruce.
If he rejects a trade then bench him. The Reds will win more games with Bruce in RF than Griffey.

If Griffey's feelings get hurt by the Reds telling him the truth then his feelings get hurt. The man is 38 years old.

I am actually on of the few that like Patterson in CF. I'd leave him there and play Bruce in RF.

Jpup
05-14-2008, 03:20 PM
I sure hope Kepp gets back quick. He's been very, very good.

Chip R
05-14-2008, 03:23 PM
I am actually on of the few that like Patterson in CF. I'd leave him there and play Bruce in RF.


I don't think you'll find many people that disagree with that. His defense is outstanding but Dusty insists on hitting him first and Patterson can't find 1st base with a compass and a map.

Will M
05-14-2008, 03:31 PM
I don't think you'll find many people that disagree with that. His defense is outstanding but Dusty insists on hitting him first and Patterson can't find 1st base with a compass and a map.

OK. Batting him first is Dusty's issue not Patterson's. Patterson is OBP challenged but overall his OPS is .722 which is respectable for a great defensive centerfielder.

*BaseClogger*
05-14-2008, 03:32 PM
Sad to see that happen to Keppinger.

My question is, what do we do with him next year if he isn't the SS?

If he starts, it must be at SS or 2B. Otherwise, he is a utility man. Me, I play him at SS unless something better presents itself...

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 03:33 PM
He takes Freel's spot as super utility man.

He makes the bench that much better.

RedsMan3203
05-14-2008, 03:36 PM
Sorry guys I cut out some pages here.... But......

How about Phillips at SS.

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2008, 03:37 PM
Get Griffey out of town ASAP and replace him with Bruce.
If he rejects a trade then bench him. The Reds will win more games with Bruce in RF than Griffey.

If Griffey's feelings get hurt by the Reds telling him the truth then his feelings get hurt. The man is 38 years old.

This is just not realistic at all.

M2
05-14-2008, 03:41 PM
This is just not realistic at all.

That's been the problem with the Reds and Reds fans in a nutshell - the notion that you'd move out an unproductive old player in favor of a potentially wildly productive young player strikes them as being completely unrealistic.

My take is until common sense becomes realistic expectation with this franchise, then winning baseball is just not realistic at all.

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2008, 03:46 PM
That's been the problem with the Reds and Reds fans in a nutshell - the notion that you'd move out an unproductive old player in favor of a potentially wildly productive young player strikes them as being completely unrealistic.

My take is until common sense becomes realistic expectation with this franchise, then winning baseball is just not realistic at all.

I'm not saying I'm not in favor of it, I'm just saying it's not realistic.

KGJ is still a pretty big figure in Cincinnati and I don't think the Reds want to upset him in his last days here, regardless if it's the best thing for the team. This is especially true in a season perceived by many to already be a lost one. There's no easy answer, but I think the Reds would benefit from bringing Bruce up and having him in CF until they move Griffey.

Chip R
05-14-2008, 03:46 PM
OK. Batting him first is Dusty's issue not Patterson's. Patterson is OBP challenged but overall his OPS is .722 which is respectable for a great defensive centerfielder.


It is, if he's batting lower in the order or has a fabulous OBP. It's not Patterson's fault Dusty bats him leadoff, of course. But it's like having Juan Castro on the roster. If he's on the roster, he's going to get used. If Patterson's on the roster, Dusty's going to hit him leadoff. What you want to do is take that temptation away from Dusty and not have him on the roster at all.

Will M
05-14-2008, 03:47 PM
That's been the problem with the Reds and Reds fans in a nutshell - the notion that you'd move out an unproductive old player in favor of a potentially wildly productive young player strikes them as being completely unrealistic.

My take is until common sense becomes realistic expectation with this franchise, then winning baseball is just not realistic at all.

:clap:

M2
05-14-2008, 03:49 PM
KGJ is still a pretty big figure in Cincinnati and I don't think the Reds want to upset him in his last days here, regardless if it's the best thing for the team. This is especially true in a season perceived by many to already be a lost one.

The Reds need to stop caring about all of that stuff. None of it matters and it won't take long for a kid like Bruce to make Jr. nothing more than an afterthought.

Will M
05-14-2008, 03:49 PM
It is, if he's batting lower in the order or has a fabulous OBP. It's not Patterson's fault Dusty bats him leadoff, of course. But it's like having Juan Castro on the roster. If he's on the roster, he's going to get used. If Patterson's on the roster, Dusty's going to hit him leadoff. What you want to do is take that temptation away from Dusty and not have him on the roster at all.

that is crazy. take a great defensive centerfielder with a respectable OPS off the roster because of Dusty. honestly your logic is backwards. you should be arguing to get rid of Dusty. why not get 25 crappy players? then dusty won't screw up the lineup because he can't!

LoganBuck
05-14-2008, 03:52 PM
It is, if he's batting lower in the order or has a fabulous OBP. It's not Patterson's fault Dusty bats him leadoff, of course. But it's like having Juan Castro on the roster. If he's on the roster, he's going to get used. If Patterson's on the roster, Dusty's going to hit him leadoff. What you want to do is take that temptation away from Dusty and not have him on the roster at all.

Brantlye said that Patterson was on fire last night! So after two nights of bunts, seeing eye ground balls, and bloop hits, with admittedly one nice double, Patterson is en fuego! Brantlye can make me sick at times.

And yes I spelled it that way on purpose.

LoganBuck
05-14-2008, 03:53 PM
that is crazy. take a great defensive centerfielder with a respectable OPS off the roster because of Dusty. honestly your logic is backwards. you should be arguing to get rid of Dusty. why not get 25 crappy players? then dusty won't screw up the lineup because he can't!

Patterson's OPS is so inflated by five good games out of forty it isn't even funny. Don't bring OPS into any discussion about that guy.

Chip R
05-14-2008, 04:02 PM
that is crazy. take a great defensive centerfielder with a respectable OPS off the roster because of Dusty. honestly your logic is backwards. you should be arguing to get rid of Dusty. why not get 25 crappy players? then dusty won't screw up the lineup because he can't!


Believe me, if it were a choice between keeping Dusty and seeing Patterson batting leadoff or firing Dusty and having another manager bat him 7th or 8th, I'd choose the latter. But Dusty's not going anywhere. Since he's not going anywhere, I say do everything in your power to get him the players he wants. If he wants to bat the CF leadoff, go out and get him one who has a decent OBP. If Dusty fails, I don't want to have him and others use the excuse that the Reds didn't get him his kind of players. If he wants Hank Aaron to bat cleanup, I say bring the Hammer out of retirement. If he wants Jr. to play RF, pick up his option.

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2008, 04:04 PM
The Reds need to stop caring about all of that stuff. None of it matters and it won't take long for a kid like Bruce to make Jr. nothing more than an afterthought.

Perhaps, but I think there's a lot more to it than that.

At any rate, the discussion is mostly irrelevant until Bruce is past the Super-2 status anyway.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 04:08 PM
Perhaps, but I think there's a lot to it than that.

At any rate, the discussion is mostly irrelevant until Bruce is past the Super-2 status anyway.

Which is like in a week or so.

PuffyPig
05-14-2008, 04:10 PM
Patterson's OPS is so inflated by five good games out of forty it isn't even funny. Don't bring OPS into any discussion about that guy.

Every players OPS is inflated by their good games, much like every pitchers (except Volquez) ERA is inflated by his poor games.

That's why there is averages.

M2
05-14-2008, 04:12 PM
Believe me, if it were a choice between keeping Dusty and seeing Patterson batting leadoff or firing Dusty and having another manager bat him 7th or 8th, I'd choose the latter. But Dusty's not going anywhere. Since he's not going anywhere, I say do everything in your power to get him the players he wants. If he wants to bat the CF leadoff, go out and get him one who has a decent OBP. If Dusty fails, I don't want to have him and others use the excuse that the Reds didn't get him his kind of players. If he wants Hank Aaron to bat cleanup, I say bring the Hammer out of retirement. If he wants Jr. to play RF, pick up his option.

While I recognize there's a certain amount of Dusty being Dusty that comes with hiring Dusty and I agree that the overall plan should be to obtain a CF who can hit leadoff, I also expect Baker to show some ability to learn and adapt. Corey Patterson isn't a leadoff hitter even though he is the team's best CF. At some juncture that's got to register and he needs to rejigger the lineup accordingly.

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2008, 04:17 PM
Which is like in a week or so.

It may end up being more like 2 weeks. A lot can happen in a week. I'm not saying I think he'll be moved right after, but I imagine the Reds at least want to see Griffey hit 600 with their ballclub. There's a lot of press and money involved with that.

Reds Fanatic
05-14-2008, 04:21 PM
According to John Fay the MRI came out like they expected. The official estimate is 4 to 6 weeks Keppinger will be out.

Chip R
05-14-2008, 04:23 PM
While I recognize there's a certain amount of Dusty being Dusty that comes with hiring Dusty and I agree that the overall plan should be to obtain a CF who can hit leadoff, I also expect Baker to show some ability to learn and adapt.


He certainly hasn't been able to learn and adapt in lo these many years he's been managing I don't see why he's going to start now.

Playing Janish presents another problem. If you have Patterson in CF and Janish at SS, you have 3 8th place hitters in the lineup when you include the catcher. Granted, Bako hasn't been hitting like an 8th place hitter but the law of averages says he's due for a fall.

reds44
05-14-2008, 04:28 PM
4-6 weeks is actually better than I expected.

M2
05-14-2008, 04:28 PM
I imagine the Reds at least want to see Griffey hit 600 with their ballclub. There's a lot of press and money involved with that.

There is? The team is drawing 15k a night for the Fish this week. Last week's series against the Cubs averaged less than 24k a night. The club has cracked 30k exactly twice since opening day and been under 20k 10 times. Nobody cares about 600. It's not getting a lot of press and it's certainly not generating any significant revenue. People are basically content to watch the highlight on TV when it happens.

We just had a poll on this site, where we've got more ardent than usual Jr. fans, and the result was overwhelming that Jr. ought to be the guy moved to make room for Jay Bruce.

Plus, at his current rate Jr. might not crack #600 until after the All-Star break.

RedsManRick
05-14-2008, 04:29 PM
The lineup has so many lefties, and Dusty is so intent on not stacking them (to avoid media blowback, apparently), that we almost have to have a lefty leading off. I wouldn't be shocked to learn that Dusty bats Patterson leadoff because he needed Keppinger to break up the lefties down in the order. It's an obsession.

I'd probably go:

Freel
Votto
Dunn
EE
Junior
Phillips
Bako
Janish

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 04:36 PM
I want a winner. I could care less about #600.

If the Reds cared about winning they'd ship him out as soon as possible, even if it is before #600.

Heck, he would be easier to deal sitting a couple away from #600.

Do. It. Now.

IslandRed
05-14-2008, 04:40 PM
The difference is basically the 2011 season and what the Reds will pay Bruce in that season.

If he's not a Super-Two, then they'd pay him probably around 500k to a million bucks (most teams will pay a couple hundred thousand more to star players during those league min years as a sign of good faith).

Or they bring him up now, he becomes Super-Two, and he goes to arbitration in 2011. Then the Reds could be paying him well ... who knows. Maybe $3 mil if hasn't produced much. Maybe $6 mil if he produces ok. Maybe $10 mil if he explodes.

Free agent service time will not be affected. My guess is Bruce being a Super-Two would cost the Reds somewhere between $5-10 mil during the 2011 season. That's when fans have to ask themselves if two weeks of Bruce in May, 2008 is worth paying him an extra $5-10 mil in 2011.

A couple of other variables in the equation:

* Being a super-two doesn't just make him more expensive in that one year, it makes him more expensive in succeeding arbitration years also. Players are allowed to compare themselves to others in their "class," so if Bruce is a super-two and originally goes to arbitration before the 2011 season, he'll go into the 2012 season with the ability to compare himself to second-time arb-eligibles instead of first-time arb-eligibles, and that drives up the price of his comps.

If we're lucky, he's as good as advertised and we lock him up long-term before then anyway.

* There is no way to know for 100% certain whether a borderline player will be a super-two until the year it happens. History has shown that 2.120 has been the minimum, but it changes from year to year depending on the specific players involved because it's the top 17% of the two-year class. I wonder if that 2.120 figure might go down in future years as more teams play the game. If I remember right, most teams target June 1 as the "safe" date just to give themselves a little cushion.

gonelong
05-14-2008, 04:45 PM
It may end up being more like 2 weeks. A lot can happen in a week. I'm not saying I think he'll be moved right after, but I imagine the Reds at least want to see Griffey hit 600 with their ballclub. There's a lot of press and money involved with that.

If you want to maximize the return in a trade with SEA, I'd think getting him to them before he hits 600 would be huge. Let him hit 600 for them, nobody seems to care at all in Cincy.

GL

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2008, 04:48 PM
If you want to maximize the return in a trade with SEA, I'd think getting him to them before he hits 600 would be huge. Let him hit 600 for them, nobody seems to care at all in Cincy.

GL

I don't disagree with that, but as I said, I can't imagine the Reds doing it.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 04:50 PM
If you want to maximize the return in a trade with SEA, I'd think getting him to them before he hits 600 would be huge. Let him hit 600 for them, nobody seems to care at all in Cincy.

Exactly.

Probably the best case scenario is Griffey not hitting any HR's until Bruce gets past the "super two" point (2 weeks) and then trade Griffey back to Seattle as he sits on 597 or 598.

The Reds are on the hook for what 12 million in '08 (9 million left) and 4M option? Offer Seattle to pay the rest of his salary in '08 (9 million) for Clement.

Will M
05-14-2008, 05:40 PM
4-6 weeks is actually better than I expected.

me too. the fracture must be a crack or 'hairline' fracture. i have seen patients with patellas broken in half. Kep could have missed the rest of 2008 with a fracture like that.

jojo
05-14-2008, 06:29 PM
According to John Fay the MRI came out like they expected. The official estimate is 4 to 6 weeks Keppinger will be out.

I think it's 4 to 6 weeks before he can even do anything baseball related. Then there is the rehab/get back into baseball shape etc....

Basically it'll be a lot longer than 4 weeks before he's back on the active roster.

jojo
05-14-2008, 06:30 PM
Exactly.

Probably the best case scenario is Griffey not hitting any HR's until Bruce gets past the "super two" point (2 weeks) and then trade Griffey back to Seattle as he sits on 597 or 598.

The Reds are on the hook for what 12 million in '08 (9 million left) and 4M option? Offer Seattle to pay the rest of his salary in '08 (9 million) for Clement.

There is no way Seattle would do that. Forget Clement.

RedsManRick
05-14-2008, 06:30 PM
FWIW, Will Carroll over at BP has him expected out for 60 days. That strikes me as pretty realistic.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 10:08 PM
. More importantly, I'm not sure how you go about determining which arms in the bullpen work and don't work until you put a reasonable defense behind them.

I think Lincoln's pathetic showing tonight, for instance, is a perfect example of a dogcrap pitcher masquerading as a real option. Defense had nothing to do with that monstrosity. Burton and Bray also provide the fireworks on any given night.

Lame group of arms down there.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2008, 10:29 PM
I think Lincoln's pathetic showing tonight, for instance, is a perfect example of a dogcrap pitcher masquerading as a real option. Defense had nothing to do with that monstrosity. Burton and Bray also provide the fireworks on any given night.

Lame group of arms down there.

The former GM showed no ability to judge bullpen talent. When two non-roster invites make it and Majewski and Coffey continue to get opportunity after opportunity to get lit up, it makes me realize how much I don't miss the former GM.

mth123
05-15-2008, 05:14 AM
I think oregonred answered your main question, but this is the outline of the two scenarios here:

Reds Wait to Promote Bruce: No Super-Two Scenario

2008 (0.120 service time after season)
2009 (1.120 service time after season)
2010 (2.120 service time after season)
2011 (3.120 service time after season)

2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #1 (4.120 service time after season)
2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (5.120 service time after season)
2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (6.120 service time after season)

---------

Reds Promote Bruce Now, He Becomes Super-Two

2008 (0.135 service time after season)
2009 (1.135 service time after season)
2010 (2.135 service time after season)

2011 Super-Two, gets arbitration year #1 (3.135 service time after season)
2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (4.135 service time after season)
2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (5.135 service time after season)
2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #4 (6.135 service time after season)

---------

The difference is basically the 2011 season and what the Reds will pay Bruce in that season.

If he's not a Super-Two, then they'd pay him probably around 500k to a million bucks (most teams will pay a couple hundred thousand more to star players during those league min years as a sign of good faith).

Or they bring him up now, he becomes Super-Two, and he goes to arbitration in 2011. Then the Reds could be paying him well ... who knows. Maybe $3 mil if hasn't produced much. Maybe $6 mil if he produces ok. Maybe $10 mil if he explodes.

Free agent service time will not be affected. My guess is Bruce being a Super-Two would cost the Reds somewhere between $5-10 mil during the 2011 season. That's when fans have to ask themselves if two weeks of Bruce in May, 2008 is worth paying him an extra $5-10 mil in 2011.

Agree with all of this, but who cares? The progressive teams lock these guys up before arb hits. I say bring him up now and lock him up after 2009 or 2010 at the latest. Players of Bruce caliber should really make this a non-issue.

I think the issue is the monument in RF.

Cyclone792
05-15-2008, 06:24 AM
Agree with all of this, but who cares? The progressive teams lock these guys up before arb hits. I say bring him up now and lock him up after 2009 or 2010 at the latest. Players of Bruce caliber should really make this a non-issue.

I think the issue is the monument in RF.

It's still an issue of saved money whether he's locked up early or not. Once Bruce is safely in the majors and not in risk of any demotion (ala an EE last year), then any agent should be able to safely determine Bruce's pay structure through his arbitration years. If Bruce is due to make league min in 2011 rather than arbit, it's actually more likely the Reds can work out a progressive deal with Bruce. The less money Bruce is due through the whole of his league min + arbit years, the better chance the Reds have of throwing some guaranteed money at him those years in exchange for buying out some FA years.