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View Full Version : Last Year, On this Date



Raisor
05-14-2008, 12:08 AM
5/13/07

Reds were 15-23, RS-176 RA-178

5/13/08
Reds are 17-23, RS-175 RA-201


Just thought it was interesting.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 12:14 AM
Todd Coffey, Matt Belisle, Bronson Arroyo, and Josh Fogg are the main culprits for that differential IMO. Coffey is gone and has been replaced with a better arm in Bray IMO. Fogg should be gone soon as the Rockies have expressed interest in him. Arroyo pitched better his last time out and you would like to think his numbers will normalize. I suspect Belisle will either be shifted into the long reliever role or sent back to AAA if he struggles again on Thursday. IMO this team isn't as bad as their record or run differential indicates. The offense is starting to heat up and the defense/pitching should improve if/when Griffey is traded and replaced with Bruce. Call me crazy but I think this team can turn it around and finish above .500.

dougdirt
05-14-2008, 01:37 AM
Call me crazy but I think this team can turn it around and finish above .500.

OK Crazy.

BRM
05-14-2008, 10:57 AM
5/13/07

Reds were 15-23, RS-176 RA-178

5/13/08
Reds are 17-23, RS-175 RA-201


Just thought it was interesting.

Same offense, worse pitching. Yet the record is slightly better. Maybe if the pitching gets EVEN worse, the record will improve more!

CrackerJack
05-14-2008, 11:07 AM
Todd Coffey, Matt Belisle, Bronson Arroyo, and Josh Fogg are the main culprits for that differential IMO. Coffey is gone and has been replaced with a better arm in Bray IMO. Fogg should be gone soon as the Rockies have expressed interest in him. Arroyo pitched better his last time out and you would like to think his numbers will normalize. I suspect Belisle will either be shifted into the long reliever role or sent back to AAA if he struggles again on Thursday. IMO this team isn't as bad as their record or run differential indicates. The offense is starting to heat up and the defense/pitching should improve if/when Griffey is traded and replaced with Bruce. Call me crazy but I think this team can turn it around and finish above .500.

I think you have to throw Cueto in there too (when has he been any good since the first series or two of the season?) as well as Burton, who has been abysmal as well.

Basically the pitching stinks sans Harang and Volquez, and they can't score runs - so they lose more than they win. Same old Reds we've seen for the last 7 years.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 11:18 AM
Same offense, worse pitching.


I'd argue both are worse, just that the pitching's a bit more worse (or less good) or whatever. And the defense similarly bad.

RedlegJake
05-14-2008, 11:19 AM
Funny the perception is that the pitching is better, and the offense is worse. I think the reality is that the pitching is perceived differently because it is on the verge of geting better - people are seeing the hope for better things coming, while the offense seems worse because it seems poised to go straight down the tubes with only Bruce to help.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 11:26 AM
I think you have to throw Cueto in there too (when has he been any good since the first series or two of the season?) as well as Burton, who has been abysmal as well.

Basically the pitching stinks sans Harang and Volquez, and they can't score runs - so they lose more than they win. Same old Reds we've seen for the last 7 years.

Cueto pitched good against the best offensive team in the NL (Cubs) last week. I didn't list him because he's pitched much better than his ERA suggests. Someone with a 11 BB/46 K ratio in 45.2 innings shouldn't have an ERA just under six. As for Burton, yeah he's had some rough outings of late but he's got a nice K/BB ratio and should be OK IMO.

Kc61
05-14-2008, 11:38 AM
I think the pitching is better. Not good, but better.

Looking at the early 2007 numbers gives one, I think, a somewhat unrealistic picture of the Reds overall pitching last year. The team pitched great in April. Team ERA was 3.80 in April 2007.

But the pitching fell apart by the end of May. The May 2007 team ERA was a delightful 5.48.

By the all-star break, the team ERA was 4.77 (compared to a league average of 4.28). By the end of the season, the team ERA was 4.94, compared to league average 4.43.

Today the Reds team ERA is 4.69. This is better than last year's full season ERA in absolute terms. Some folks like to compare to league average -- today's ERA compares to league average about the same as last year's overall team ERA.

And even if the pitching is worse, which I don't think it is, the infusion of young arms is a major plus. I'll take this year's pitching staff any day of the week and twice on Sunday for a doubleheader.

Screwball
05-14-2008, 11:45 AM
I think the pitching is better. Not good, but better.


Me too. Problem is, I think the defense is even worse than last year, and it's making the pitching staff look much worse than it actually is.

CrackerJack
05-14-2008, 12:17 PM
Cueto pitched good against the best offensive team in the NL (Cubs) last week. I didn't list him because he's pitched much better than his ERA suggests. Someone with a 11 BB/46 K ratio in 45.2 innings shouldn't have an ERA just under six. As for Burton, yeah he's had some rough outings of late but he's got a nice K/BB ratio and should be OK IMO.

Sure I agree the K/BB ratio's and upside of those two are still intact. I guess everyone's waiting around for Burton/Cueto to start improving on the ERA front and that of course is affecting the RS/RA ratio.

IF they turn it around soon then there's hope, but, still waiting.

I guess Affeldt could be thrown in there too.

I suppose there's still hope left that at least this year, they can turn it around with some better pitching and if the offense starts to play like it's capable of. (losing Keep obviously doesn't help at all)

Last year, none of that was really bound to happen. So I will agree there's at least some hope this year as opposed to last.

But I think a lot of people would also agree a relatively major purge still needs to occur and another Bat and a few arms are still needed if they want to contend?

Falls City Beer
05-14-2008, 12:29 PM
The biggest ignis fatuus is this team's pitching. The K totals have completely hypnotized the fan base into thinking that overall, the MLB pitching is better. It really, really isn't.

M2
05-14-2008, 01:27 PM
My take is last year at this time the Reds were a team destined to play worse. This year I think the team is destined to play better. It may not be a good team in the final analysis, but the things it does well and the things it can do better should add up to better overall performance.

mth123
05-15-2008, 12:13 AM
Last April was filled with a bunch 35 degree games that helped the pitching. Weather warmed up, the pitching went south - especially the pen and Lohse showed his real self after a hot start in cold weather.

This year's staff is far better. No Lohse, no Milton, No Saarloos, No Stanton, ...

The Reds have 6 starters in 2008 that are all better than all but two of the guys from 2007. Cordero and Affeldt are big upgrades from Saarloos/Coffey and Stanton. Burton this year is better than Burton of 07. Mercker/Bray are way better than Shackelford/Coutlangus. Lincoln is better than McBeth. There is just no comparison in the talent of the two teams. This year some guys are performing at their worst and compare favorably with guys who were pitching well above their heads at this time in 2007.

I'm still lukewarm at best on this team's bullpen, but its light years ahead of the trash that was there in 2007. The Saarloos/Stanton duo may have been the worst pair of RH/LH middle guys in the league. These weren't mop up men, but primary pieces to the puzzle.

reds44
05-15-2008, 12:28 AM
Does this show Dusty is a better manager then Narron?

VR
05-15-2008, 12:48 AM
The biggest ignis fatuus is this team's pitching. The K totals have completely hypnotized the fan base into thinking that overall, the MLB pitching is better. It really, really isn't.

I think ignis fatuus would be overachieving, but waiting to fall back to earth just be looking at the lousy peripherals, like recent years.

The Reds pitching has very strong peripherals, however... which should indicate they haven't been too lucky at all.

Putting hopes in the Paul Wilsons, Brandon Claussens and Dave Williams of the world is much different than faith in guys that can actually get people out on their own in the major leagues.

mth123 has great points, and reason for optimism.

oregonred
05-15-2008, 01:09 AM
My take is last year at this time the Reds were a team destined to play worse. This year I think the team is destined to play better. It may not be a good team in the final analysis, but the things it does well and the things it can do better should add up to better overall performance.

Agree. The pen was a mess tonight with the use the last three days of Weathers and Cordero for 2+ innings over the last couple of nights. It was a fluke that you blow a 6-0 lead even with average/below average relievers. Cordero, like many top closers, seems much better at managing his own mess (starting off innings) then shutting down the mess made by others.

The pitching is much improved over last year. It's actually interesting to watch these guys deal 80% of the time... I don't get all the venom over the staff since the club has underachieved with an 18-23 record (note the club creeping closer to .500 after bottoming at 14-22). I see at most 2-3 major gaps out of 12 needing to be immediately fixed which is a far cry from the recent lost decade where 10/12 gaps needed fixed.

4/5 nights the club is running out Harang/Arroyo/Volquez and Cueto. The last 20% is taking expected lumps, but its been so long since we've seen a 22-year old with electric stuff that it's a nice problem to finally have. 4/5ths of the time we have an ace, a competent arm, a budding star and a kid with electric stuff matching up against opponents night after night.

The missing 20% rotation is manageable. At worst, having a still learning Bailey as your 5th starter for the 2nd Half is another nice problem to have.

The pen is solid with Burton/Weathers (7th/8th interchangeable) and Cordero (9th). Affeldt is a solid lefty arm (still only 28 years old, seems like he's been around longer). Bray would be on almost anyone's staff. That leaves Lincoln/Fogg as mop-up and if they are required in high leverage situations (should be rare events like 6-0 in the 9th) then agreed its a problem.

The defense is a major issue as is continually noted by some of the best posters, but add Janish and hopefully soon, Jay Bruce to the SS/RF equation and watch the staff ERA come back in line to where it should be (IMO, this should be a 4.0-4.25 worst case collective ERA staff)

Raisor
05-15-2008, 07:26 PM
5/15/07

Reds were 16-24, RS-179 RA-186
RS/game-4.47
RA/game-4.65

5/15/08
Reds are 18-23, RS-182 RA-207
RS/Game-4.43
RA/Game-5.04


Just thought it was interesting.

Spring~Fields
05-15-2008, 09:02 PM
5/15/07

Reds were 16-24, RS-179 RA-186
RS/game-4.47
RA/game-4.65

5/15/08
Reds are 18-23, RS-182 RA-207
RS/Game-4.43
RA/Game-5.04


Just thought it was interesting.

Doesn't show any real improvement does it, disappointing.

5 games under instead of 8,

Spring~Fields
05-16-2008, 12:23 AM
Rainy night and curious, so I ran it on out.

5/15 2008
18 - 23 .439
RS 182 RA 207 -25
Season End
**Projection**
71 - 91 .439
RS 719 RA 818 - 99

5/15 2007
16 - 24 .400
RS 179 RA 186 -7
Season End
72 - 90 .444
RS 783 RA 853 -50

5/15 2006
23 - 15 .605
RS 196 RA 185 +11
Season End
ended 80 - 82 .494
RS 749 RA 801 -52

5/15 2005
14 - 23 .378
RA 174 RS 217 -43
Season End
73 - 89 .451
RS 820 RA 889 -69

5/15 2004
19 - 17 .514
RS 166 RA 180 -14
Season End
76 - 86 .466
RS 750 RA 907 -157

5/15 2003
21 - 20 .500
RS 205 RA 250 -45
Season End
69 - 93 .421
RS 694 RA 885 -191

5/15 2002
24 - 15 .615
RS 180 RA 152 +28
Season End
78 - 84 .476
RS 709 RA 774 -65

Spring~Fields
05-16-2008, 12:22 PM
Team Pitching Team Fielding Team Batting
Rnk. G W L ERA Rnk. G E FPCT Rnk Pct.
2008 2008 2008
14. 41 18 23 4.71 12. 41 26 .983 8. OPS .752 7. SLG .423
RProj.818 ERProj743 E Projected 103 7. OBP .329 8. BA .260
2007 2007 2007
15.162 72 90 4.94 7. 162 95 .984 7. OPS .772 5. SLG .436
2. R 853 1. ER 796 10. E 95 8. OBP .335 9. BA .267
2006 2006 2006
7. 162 80 82 4.51 15. 162 128 .979 7. OPS .768 7. SLG .432
7. R 801 9. ER 725 2. E 128 7. OBP .336 15. BA .257
2005 2005 2005
16.163 73 89 5.15 11. 163 104 .983 1. OPS .785 1. SLG .446
1. R 889 1. ER 820 7. E 104 4. OBP .339 8. BA .261
2004 2004 2004
15.162 76 86 5.19 13. 162 113 .981 10. OPS.749 9. SLG.418
2. R 907 2. ER 832 5. E 113 9. OBP.331 13. BA .250
2003 2003 2003
15.162 69 93 5.09 16. 162 141 .977 14. OPS.713 13. SLG.395
2. R 886 2. ER 818 1. E 121 14. OBP.318 15. BA.245
2002 2002 2002
11.162 78 84 4.27 12. 162 120 .981 10. OPS.738 11. SLG.408
4. R 774 5. ER 690 4. E 120 10. OBP.330 12. BA.253

Spring~Fields
05-16-2008, 03:12 PM
The pitching appears slightly better to me, while the fielding and batting appear to have not improved.