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View Full Version : Homer Bailey and his abilities and inabilities.



Kingspoint
05-13-2008, 11:31 PM
I don't ever see it mentioned anywhere, but there's one huge reason why Bailey isn't in the Majors.

It's because of the dynamics of the Major League Rotation.

Unless you want to kill the bullpen, you can only have one or two guys who have trouble pitching into the 6th inning even when they pitch well.

With Cueto struggling every game to get past the 5th even when he pitches well and the problems that Arroyo and Fogg and Belisle have had, the bullpen has been used pretty heavily so far this season. Because of that, there isn't any room for Baily, who also has had trouble getting to the 6th inning even when he's pitching well at the Major League level.

When there's some more stability in the REDS' rotation where there are 3 guys who get into the 7th inning and on on a semi-regular basis, then they can bring Bailey up without worrying about what it's going to do to the bullpen.

Dusty has been trying to stretch these starters out and I think he's done a great job of it. (I don't praise him often.) With Arroyo's last outing, that's one step closer to getting Bailey into the bigs.

Bailey can help himself out by going 8 and 9 innings at AAA more consistently even if he's giving up 4 runs while doing it and forcing the situation.

dougdirt
05-14-2008, 12:35 AM
I don't ever see it mentioned anywhere, but there's one huge reason why Bailey isn't in the Majors.

It's because of the dynamics of the Major League Rotation.

Unless you want to kill the bullpen, you can only have one or two guys who have trouble pitching into the 6th inning even when they pitch well.

With Cueto struggling every game to get past the 5th even when he pitches well and the problems that Arroyo and Fogg and Belisle have had, the bullpen has been used pretty heavily so far this season. Because of that, there isn't any room for Baily, who also has had trouble getting to the 6th inning even when he's pitching well at the Major League level.

When there's some more stability in the REDS' rotation where there are 3 guys who get into the 7th inning and on on a semi-regular basis, then they can bring Bailey up without worrying about what it's going to do to the bullpen.

Dusty has been trying to stretch these starters out and I think he's done a great job of it. (I don't praise him often.) With Arroyo's last outing, that's one step closer to getting Bailey into the bigs.

Bailey can help himself out by going 8 and 9 innings at AAA more consistently even if he's giving up 4 runs while doing it and forcing the situation.

The amount of pitchers that go 8 or 9 innings in the minor leagues are very few and they don't do it too often. As a matter of fact I would be very surprised if you found more than 5 guys go 9 innings this year in the minors under the age of 25. It just doesn't happen.

Kingspoint
05-14-2008, 03:52 AM
The amount of pitchers that go 8 or 9 innings in the minor leagues are very few and they don't do it too often. As a matter of fact I would be very surprised if you found more than 5 guys go 9 innings this year in the minors under the age of 25. It just doesn't happen.

OK, I'll take you up on that.

I'll pick just one franchise, and I think that there will be some pitchers on that franchise going 8 or 9 innings at AAA.

I'll randomly pick the Padres, only because they consistently have pitchers in the pipeline. Their AAA pitchers pitch in a hitters league with small ballparks (the PCL), but even with that, I have a feeling that even though this is the beginning of the season and pitchers are just starting to stretch themselves out that they are reaching the 8th and 9th innings.

Kingspoint
05-14-2008, 04:08 AM
San Diego wasn't a good choice as all of their starters had ERA's from 5.00 to 9.00.

I checked two other teams and those teams' starters all had high ERA's, too.

I guess at this time of the year, if a player is good enough to be having a lower ERA at AAA, he's pitching in the Majors.

As you said, there probably aren't too many pitchers in the minors that are under 25 going 8 or 9 innings too often.

Even Daryl Thompson and his 1.28 ERA has only gone more than 6.0 innings only once in 8 starts this year. He's also only gone less than 6.0 innings only once in 8 starts this year....which is good because if you multiply out 6.0 times, say 30 starts, that's 180 innings pitched and that's more than enough for him.