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Matt700wlw
05-14-2008, 03:25 PM
Newsday.com
MIDWEEK INSIDER
Expect Dunn's big bat to leave Cincinnati
Ken Davidoff

11:33 AM EDT, May 14, 2008

Since the start of the 2004 season - the first year there was any sort of testing with discipline for illegal performance-enhancing drugs, for the sake of conversation - David Ortiz leads all major leaguers with 184 home runs.

Then comes Alex Rodriguez with 177, and Albert Pujols with 176.

You can bet $46 million (Kei Igawa cheap shot alert) that none of that trio will be traded in 2008. But you shouldn't bet $46 that number four on the list will remain with his team.

"It's going to happen every year. It's happened every year," said Adam Dunn, who has gone deep 172 times in the past four seasons and change (thanks to the Elias Sports Bureau for the info). "I'm used to it by now. It gets old, and I hate it, but you can't do anything about it. So I just deal with it."

Dunn, the Reds slugger, is talking about his annual involvement in trade discussions. As he pointed out, he has been involved with them since before he was in the big leagues, as the Mariners wanted him in return for Ken Griffey Jr. back in the 1999-2000 offseason.

All that chatter has produced no action, but this year, you'd have to bet on something happening. And given Dunn's power numbers - consider that the distant number five on this list is Paul Konerko, with 152 - the 28-year-old should be the highest-impact bat available to contending teams.

New Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has been non-committal in reports, as well he should be. It's still early, and the Reds have just recorded two straight victories over the National League East-leading Marlins. But the bet here is, come August 1, Dunn will be a Blue Jay, or an Indian, or maybe even a Met. But not a Red.

Here's why:

1. The Reds, while showing hope for the future with youngsters like pitchers Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez and outfielders Jay Bruce (currently in the minors) and outfielder Joey Votto, simply aren't very good. They're far worse than the Cubs, and perhaps even the Cardinals and Astros.

2. Jocketty, unlike his predecessor Wayne Krivsky, has room for error with Cincinnati owner Bob Castellini. Jocketty can take a step back this year, trade away his veterans for prospects and focus on next season and beyond.

3. It wouldn't make sense for the Reds to re-sign Dunn, who is eligible for free agency this coming winter, because of those young outfielders. So if they're not going to make a playoff run, they might as well unload him and get some inventory in return.

For Dunn, who came up to the Reds in 2001 and has suffered through seven straight losing seasons, it's a mixed sensation. He's anxious to go to a team that competes. Yet he sees that the Reds are headed in that direction.

"That's kind of one of those things where I've been through the bad times, now it's kind of on the rise," he said. "I'm hoping to maybe get a chance to stay here, hang out and watch all of these young guys develop. This team is going to be good for a while. I just don't know if I'm going to be here with them."

A team acquiring Dunn won't give up a staggering package of talent for him, since he'll be a mere half-season rental. Yet keep in mind that the Rangers did nicely last July in unloading short-term rentals Eric Gagne (to Boston, for Engel Beltre, Kason Gabbard and David Murphy) and Kenny Lofton (to Cleveland, for highly regarded minor-league catcher Max Ramirez).




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Trade Shortage

The early returns on the season indicate even more parity, which is great for the industry but not so great for trade-discussion junkies.

After Dunn, the pickings could be slim on the trade front.

Griffey is a unique entity because he controls his own destiny with his right to refuse any trade. If teams have to exercise Griffey's $16.5 million option for 2009 in order for him to green-light a trade, then it's hard to see him going anywhere. Especially since he's off to such a dreadful start, at age 38.

The Pirates have Xavier Nady, yet he's under team control through next year, so there's not a compelling reason to deal him.

Colorado, if it gives up on this year, could deal third baseman Garrett Atkins and hand the job over to Ian Stewart.

And Lofton is still out there, for any team that wants an energy boost in the outfield.

It would be surprising if we saw a trade approaching last year's significant Mark Teixiera-to-Atlanta deal

pahster
05-14-2008, 03:57 PM
Who are these young outfielders Dunn is blocking?

Highlifeman21
05-14-2008, 03:59 PM
If he ends up an Indian, it won't be that far of a drive for true Dunn fans to see him, plus those around Cincinnati will see him 3 times a year for interleague....

Plus, for me living in CT, he'll be closer when he's in Boston and New York and Baltimore....

kaldaniels
05-14-2008, 04:03 PM
Would Dunn be receptive to a longterm contract or do you think he is fed up with losing and the criticism he tends to attract? Reading between the lines, it seems to me in his mind, he's outta here. Disclosure: I am not nor do I claim to be able to read his mind.

PuffyPig
05-14-2008, 04:12 PM
Who are these young outfielders Dunn is blocking?


Didn't you read?

Bruce and Votto?

Cyclone792
05-14-2008, 04:14 PM
Didn't you read?

Bruce and Votto?

The followup question then is ... who's the first baseman that Dunn is indirectly blocking?

If the Reds trade Dunn, then they have two viable players available to cover four spots (all 3 OF and 1B). Interesting that it's the opposite of where they were just a few years ago with five viable players available to cover those four spots.

Jpup
05-14-2008, 04:16 PM
poor journalism.

Will M
05-14-2008, 04:19 PM
Expect Dunn's big bat to leave Cincinnati :beerme:

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2008, 04:24 PM
Who are these young outfielders Dunn is blocking?

I was thinking the exact same thing.

He says in the article he's interested in sticking around. I'm kind on the fence about the whole thing. For me, it's all about what kind of contract we're talking.

M2
05-14-2008, 04:38 PM
Who are these young outfielders Dunn is blocking?

Jay Bruce is so good he seems like four prospects instead of one. The Reds may need to petition MLB to add a short fielder position just to put all of his awesomeness on display.

Meanwhile Joey Votto is in no way, shape or form an OF. He's barely ever played the position and when he has it hasn't been pretty.

That said, I agree with the premise that Dunn might be moved this summer, though it's because Dusty Baker clearly doesn't plan to use him in a critical lineup slot and there's no point in spending that kind of coin for a guy who doesn't hit in your top four (regardless of whether he should). Yet he isn't going anywhere before June 15. Until then, it's Jr. sitting in the ejector seat with Jay Bruce whacking the snot out of the red launch button.

lollipopcurve
05-14-2008, 04:42 PM
Meanwhile Joey Votto is in no way, shape or form an OF. He's barely ever played the position and when he has it hasn't been pretty.

Except that he was already as good as Dunn and soon to be better. If they had to move him out there, it could work. But in that he's looked good at times at 1B, probably a good idea to keep him there b/c he might turn into a defensive asset.

Cyclone792
05-14-2008, 04:43 PM
Except that he was already as good as Dunn and soon to be better. If they had to move him out there, it could work. But in that he's looked good at times at 1B, probably a good idea to keep him there b/c he might turn into a defensive asset.

Who's playing first base if Votto moves to the outfield? Either way, there's still two holes if Dunn is dealt.

Heath
05-14-2008, 04:44 PM
Expect Dunn's big bat to leave Cincinnati :beerme:

Be careful what you wish for. You sometimes don't know what you'll miss when he's gone.

M2
05-14-2008, 04:45 PM
Except that he was already as good as Dunn and soon to be better. If they had to move him out there, it could work. But in that he's looked good at times at 1B, probably a good idea to keep him there b/c he might turn into a defensive asset.

I'd argue he was a good bit worse than Dunn out there (looked like Dunn on a bad day to me). That said, with repetition I'm sure he could be no worse than Dunn, except that's not what I'd be looking to replace Dunn with should Dunn leave town.

I totally agree about the 1B part. Votto's showing some defensive ability there and it should be fostered, not forgotten.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2008, 04:47 PM
I'd leave Votto at first base and groom Todd Frazier as the left fielder of the future if Dunn is traded. Votto has looked pretty good at first base and could develop into a defensive asset.

Matt700wlw
05-14-2008, 04:48 PM
Jay Bruce can cover the entire outfield...he OWNS the outfield

:)

Will M
05-14-2008, 04:54 PM
Votto has looked pretty good at first base and could develop into a defensive asset.

agree.

15fan
05-14-2008, 05:01 PM
"And given Dunn's power numbers - consider that the distant number five on this list is Paul Konerko, with 152"

Remember when the Reds had Dunn and Konerko in the organization?

Dunn was drafted in 1998, and Konerko came over in the Jeff Shaw deal during the 98 season.

I believe the story is that McKeon was down on Konerko. So Konerko was sent packing after the 98 season. Then McKeon was sent packing after 2000.

In a cruel and ironic twist, McKeon went on to win a WS with the Marlins. Konerko then won a WS with Chicago.

The Reds, meanwhile, haven't won squat.

RichRed
05-14-2008, 05:08 PM
That said, I agree with the premise that Dunn might be moved this summer, though it's because Dusty Baker clearly doesn't plan to use him in a critical lineup slot and there's no point in spending that kind of coin for a guy who doesn't hit in your top four (regardless of whether he should).

Exactly. The premise is being set up nicely: "We can't justify paying our #7 hitter <insert double-digit number here> million dollars a year!"

RedsManRick
05-14-2008, 06:02 PM
"And given Dunn's power numbers - consider that the distant number five on this list is Paul Konerko, with 152"

Remember when the Reds had Dunn and Konerko in the organization?

Dunn was drafted in 1998, and Konerko came over in the Jeff Shaw deal during the 98 season.

I believe the story is that McKeon was down on Konerko. So Konerko was sent packing after the 98 season. Then McKeon was sent packing after 2000.

In a cruel and ironic twist, McKeon went on to win a WS with the Marlins. Konerko then won a WS with Chicago.

The Reds, meanwhile, haven't won squat.

Well, Konerko turned in to Mike Cameron who turned in to Junior.

gm
05-14-2008, 06:19 PM
I'd argue he was a good bit worse than Dunn out there (looked like Dunn on a bad day to me). That said, with repetition I'm sure he could be no worse than Dunn, except that's not what I'd be looking to replace Dunn with should Dunn leave town.

I totally agree about the 1B part. Votto's showing some defensive ability there and it should be fostered, not forgotten.

When did you get to see Votto in the OF? Did Louisville play a AAA team in your neck of the woods? (Day game with sun field? Night game? Windy?)

FWIW, I agree that Votto stays at 1b, I never worry about the Reds finding outfielders, but power-hitting 1st basemen have been rare in Cincy (not since the days of Nick Esasky, Lee May and Gordy Coleman)

gm
05-14-2008, 06:21 PM
Well, Konerko turned in to Mike Cameron who turned in to Junior.

This is true, but what could've JimBo "turned Sean Casey into" back in '98-99, if he had been so inclined?

DoogMinAmo
05-14-2008, 06:23 PM
Question: Is Dunn arbitration eligible? Can the Reds offer him one year at 18 mil and give the kids more time to develop?

RedsManRick
05-14-2008, 06:29 PM
Question: Is Dunn arbitration eligible? Can the Reds offer him one year at 18 mil and give the kids more time to develop?

I'm curious, too. I think teams may be able to offer binding arbitration to any pending free agent. This is opposed to players having the right to arbitration early in their careers. I've never quite understood how it works though.

I do know that you only get compensatory draft picks for players who sign elsewhere while rejecting an offer of arbitration.

M2
05-14-2008, 06:30 PM
When did you get to see Votto in the OF? Did Louisville play a AAA team in your neck of the woods? (Day game with sun field? Night game? Windy?)

FWIW, I agree that Votto stays at 1b, I never worry about the Reds finding outfielders, but power-hitting 1st basemen have been rare in Cincy (not since the days of Nick Esasky, Lee May and Gordy Coleman)

Votto played a few games with the Reds in LF late last season. I also caught some online broadcasts from Louisville last summer when he was out there. To be kind, his ball flight recognition was extremely delayed.

True about the Reds often being Judy at 1B. Also, Votto's a legit 1B and I'm a big proponent at playing guys in their optimal position.

flyer85
05-14-2008, 06:32 PM
I do know that you only get compensatory draft picks for players who sign elsewhere while rejecting an offer of arbitration.that's for guys that don't sign before the arbitration deadline in December. If a free agent signs early in the period(in November/early December) then the team doesn't have to make a decision on offering arbitration and gets the picks.

M2
05-14-2008, 06:34 PM
I'm curious, too. I think teams may be able to offer binding arbitration to any pending free agent. This is opposed to players having the right to arbitration early in their careers. I've never quite understood how it works though.

I do know that you only get compensatory draft picks for players who sign elsewhere while rejecting an offer of arbitration.

Sounds like you understand it perfectly. Basically the team can offer arbitration in order to keep the player's rights if he agrees or to get draft pick compensation if he declines (with the deadline caveat flyer85 mentioned).

Mind you, I wouldn't expect Dunn to be interested in a one-year deal.

reds44
05-14-2008, 06:35 PM
The Reds might have their LF next year on the roster right now, and he is playing 3rd base. A lot will depend on how he looks the rest of the year with his defense. Edwin has been looking better as of late.

The question is, do they see Rosales as a viable option for LF/3B? If not, they will be in the market for one.

Matt700wlw
05-15-2008, 01:22 PM
More stuff

on Heyman > DAILY SCOOP


What a deal!

Thomas E. White/SI




Drafting Jocketty

People connected to the Reds say Walt Jocketty certainly was not campaigning for the GM job he was given a few weeks ago and would have been just as happy -- or happier even -- to remain as club president and adviser to owner Bob Castellini. They say Jocketty is at a stage in his life where he didn't need this, but that Castellini insisted his old friend take over for Wayne Krivsky.

Reds insiders also say Castellini just never hit it off with Krivsky (beyond the interview, that is) and has always liked Jocketty, the Cardinals' GM when Castellini was a limited partner in St. Louis. Jocketty doesn't dispute the notion that he was drafted for the job. "Mr. Castellini came to me and said he wanted to make a change and asked me if I'd be willing to take over,'' Jocketty said.

While Castellini asked, it apparently wasn't a question. "I couldn't really turn him down,'' Jocketty said.

Krivsky said he has no issue with Jocketty, who was brought into the front office in January. "He told me at the time he wasn't interested in my job,'' Krivsky said by phone. "And I believe he was telling me the truth."

Griffey, Dunn should hit the market

Krivsky leaves a better team than the one he inherited, thanks to some positive individual moves. Two of the best were taking Josh Hamilton in the Rule 5 draft and then trading him to the Rangers for young pitcher Edinson Volquez (a good deal for both sides).

With an improved young nucleus, people around the game believe Jocketty's goal will be to change the climate around the perennially underachieving team and that he will seriously entertain offers for Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn. It won't necessarily be easy to get a haul in return, thanks to slow starts by the two sluggers (Griffey is at .250 with four home runs, while Dunn is hitting .203 with six homers), high salaries and expiring contracts (Dunn's ends after the year and the Reds hold a $16.5-million option on Griffey, which is unlikely to be exercised). Griffey also has veto power over trades while Dunn has a limited no-trade provision that names 10 teams to which he can not be traded.

The Mariners remain a possible destination for Griffey, who's beloved in that area, and especially by Mariners team president Chuck Armstrong. Although, if Griffey hopes to go to a winner, he might have to look elsewhere. The Indians could also be a candidate for offense, especially if Travis Hafner (.354 slugging) doesn't turn it around.

PuffyPig
05-15-2008, 03:09 PM
FWIW, I agree that Votto stays at 1b, I never worry about the Reds finding outfielders, but power-hitting 1st basemen have been rare in Cincy (not since the days of Nick Esasky, Lee May and Gordy Coleman)

Other than that HOF firstbaseman we had named Tony Perez.....

PuffyPig
05-15-2008, 03:11 PM
The Reds might have their LF next year on the roster right now, and he is playing 3rd base. A lot will depend on how he looks the rest of the year with his defense. Edwin has been looking better as of late.

The question is, do they see Rosales as a viable option for LF/3B? If not, they will be in the market for one.

It's much easier to get a LF than a thirdbaseman, especially considering we have such a good thirdbaseman.

EE may make some errors, but he offers something most Red players don't...superior range.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 03:43 PM
It's much easier to get a LF than a thirdbaseman, especially considering we have such a good thirdbaseman.

EE may make some errors, but he offers something most Red players don't...superior range.

Exactly. There is no way I move EdE off 3B unless the Reds can find another third baseman with similar range, and that's not easy to find.

gm
05-15-2008, 04:07 PM
Other than that HOF firstbaseman we had named Tony Perez.....

I had a feeling someone would mention the Big Dog. I tend to think of Tony as more of a contact hitter with gap power when runners were on base. Sure, he'd crack an occasional dinger (Bill Lee, '75 WS was memorable) but was Perez really a slugger? Let's just say I want more power from a 1st baseman in 2008 than Tony was offering in the mid '70s (of course, I'd settle for Tony's run production from any of the corner positions...)

missionhockey21
05-15-2008, 04:18 PM
I had a feeling someone would mention the Big Dog. I tend to think of Tony as more of a contact hitter with gap power when runners were on base. Sure, he'd crack an occasional dinger (Bill Lee, '75 WS was memorable) but was Perez really a slugger? Let's just say I want more power from a 1st baseman in 2008 than Tony was offering in the mid '70s (of course, I'd settle for Tony's run production from any of the corner positions...)
Tony Perez averaged 30 homeruns a season over a six year period, if we got that from Votto... I don't see how you could see Votto doing much more than that given his scouting reports and minor league numbers (hot start aside.)

gm
05-15-2008, 04:37 PM
Tony Perez averaged 30 homeruns a season over a six year period, if we got that from Votto... I don't see how you could see Votto doing much more than that given his scouting reports and minor league numbers (hot start aside.)

That's where playing home games in the GAB should help. I expect Joey's power numbers to increase as he gets older (although it didn't work out that way with Sean Casey...but as LH hitters we're talking apples/oranges)

Raisor
05-15-2008, 05:34 PM
That's where playing home games in the GAB should help. I expect Joey's power numbers to increase as he gets older (although it didn't work out that way with Sean Casey...but as LH hitters we're talking apples/oranges)

Votto IS on pace to hit 34 this year.

Who was the last Red 1B to do that?

BRM
05-15-2008, 05:42 PM
Votto IS on pace to hit 34 this year.

Who was the last Red 1B to do that?

Lee May?

REDREAD
05-15-2008, 06:45 PM
Who are these young outfielders Dunn is blocking?

That was my first reaction as well. I see one young OF .. that's it.

REDREAD
05-15-2008, 06:49 PM
Well, Konerko turned in to Mike Cameron who turned in to Junior.

You don't even need to go that far.

For the Reds, Cameron > Konerko, especially when you consider the value at the time the trade was made. Cameron was exactly what the 1999 Reds needed. Konerko had no position to play. IMO, one of Bowden's best trades.

REDREAD
05-15-2008, 06:50 PM
Question: Is Dunn arbitration eligible? Can the Reds offer him one year at 18 mil and give the kids more time to develop?

They can offer Dunn arbitration, but he can refuse and become a free agent.

fearofpopvol1
05-16-2008, 02:04 AM
Votto IS on pace to hit 34 this year.

Who was the last Red 1B to do that?

I doubt he reaches 34. I do think 20-25 is very realistic though.

WebScorpion
05-16-2008, 11:02 AM
Lee May?

Yea, he hit 39 in 1971...his last season as a Red. Perez never hit 30 homers as a 1st baseman...he hit 37 and 40 dingers as a 3rd baseman in 1969 and 1970 respectively. :thumbup:

PuffyPig
05-16-2008, 12:37 PM
I had a feeling someone would mention the Big Dog. I tend to think of Tony as more of a contact hitter with gap power when runners were on base. Sure, he'd crack an occasional dinger (Bill Lee, '75 WS was memorable) but was Perez really a slugger? Let's just say I want more power from a 1st baseman in 2008 than Tony was offering in the mid '70s (of course, I'd settle for Tony's run production from any of the corner positions...)


During his 5 years playing firstbase for the Reds, Perez averaged 23 HR's and close to 100 RBI's. And that was during an era where hitters took a bit of a beating.

Votto should be so lucky
.

MartyFan
05-16-2008, 01:34 PM
During his 5 years playing firstbase for the Reds, Perez averaged 23 HR's and close to 100 RBI's. And that was during an era where hitters took a bit of a beating.

Votto should be so lucky
.

I agree.

It was a HUGE deal for George Foster to get to 50 HR's when he did, I am not aware of what the league average was for HR's back then but I can't imagine it was as high as it is today.

Why?

Maybe there was better pitching?
Maybe the players were not so conditioned to hit the long bal?
Maybe they were not in as good a physical shape as today's players?
Maybe the stadiums were built for the games to be played IN instead of giving away HR's like they are now?

I don't know and I don't really know how we can compare players of one generation and the dynamics they faced with players of this generation.