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redhawk61
05-15-2008, 12:45 AM
According to Johnathan Mayo in his Mock first 10 picks, he says thee is a buzz going around that we really like this kid.

He supposedly is the best bat in the draft but is limited defensively to only 1b

Here is a little summary:

Drawing rave reviews for his work in the box, he's one of the best hitters in college and perhaps in the entire Draft class. His unbelievable plate discipline will undoubtedly be attractive to some teams, though it's unlikely he'll play anything but first as a pro. He could be the kind of Major Leaguer who hits .300 with 25 homers and a high OBP annually.

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=wallace

Red_BlueDevil
05-15-2008, 10:04 AM
Looks like Mr. Wallace has started a blog on his perspective leading up to the draft. See http://08draft.mlblogs.com/

lollipopcurve
05-15-2008, 10:14 AM
Looks to have a quick bat and nice power. Would be a very safe pick.

OesterPoster
05-15-2008, 10:22 AM
According to Jim Callis, he thinks Wallace isn't a top 10 talent. This is from thecollegebaseballblog.


Jonathan (GA): Jim, I have read/heard that Brett Wallace does not have the power potential that Smoak does…from the USA games and his college numbers, how are questions about his power justified? Is it because his body is essentially maxed out?

Jim Callis: Wallace is having a great year, batting .448 with seven homers in 18 games. But it’s not all about the numbers, especially in college baseball, where the competition varies and they’re using metal bats. Scouts believe Wallace has more of a line-drive swing than a true power stroke, and if he plays first base (like they expect he will), that’s somewhat of an issue. That said, it’s not like scouts don’t like Wallace a lot. At worst, I think he’s a sandwich-round pick in June, and that’s at worst.

* The consensus seems to be that Wallace is more of a linedrive hitter who will hit for average..from the video I have seen, I would agree. However, his bat speed is above average, so it is not as if he cannot hit HR, it is more that he would need to add loft to his swing.

I am with Callis, he isn’t going to be a top 10 pick. If he could stay at 3B his value would increase, so he is a 1B who could hit for well over .300, but what is his power output?? With the embarrassment of riches at the 1B position this June, I think teams will go for pitching or other positions…knowing they can potentially still get Wallace or Dykstra in the supp. round.

Cyclone792
05-15-2008, 11:11 AM
Wallace has 719 college PAs with 95 walks. That's a 7.57 walk rate, good for 79 walks every 600 PAs. His walk rate this season in college is 5.93, good for 101 walks every 600 PAs.

He would be a safe pick via a high OBP through a decent BA and a good walk rate. His power ceiling may be difficult, at best, to identify as hitters of his type can sometimes develop power late.

This is the kind of guy I'd be absolutely drooling all over if he was a decent defender at a more important position.

lollipopcurve
05-15-2008, 11:13 AM
I am with Callis, he isn’t going to be a top 10 pick. If he could stay at 3B his value would increase, so he is a 1B who could hit for well over .300, but what is his power output?? With the embarrassment of riches at the 1B position this June, I think teams will go for pitching or other positions…knowing they can potentially still get Wallace or Dykstra in the supp. round.

Don't know about Dykstra, but no way Wallace drops out of the 1st round. College hitters are generally safe picks, and this kid, with his great plate discipline, is extra safe. LH sock is going to be an organizational weakness after Bruce is promoted (Francisco will be the only prospect, and he's pretty iffy). My guess is Wallace would be MLB-ready on a fast track and would give the Reds some return from a draft where they're a bit vulnerable (no 2nd rounder, no supplementals).

M2
05-15-2008, 11:20 AM
In a world with at least one of Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Tim Beckham, Aaron Crow, Buster Poser, Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham available, the Reds have no reason to bother with picking Wallace.

That doesn't even touch upon pitchers like Tanner Scheppers or Shooter Hunt or higher rated 1Bs like Eric Hosmer or Yonder Alonso. Wallace would be an extreme reach. The Reds have a #7 pick and they shouldn't be selecting a #20 talent with it.

lollipopcurve
05-15-2008, 11:25 AM
This is the kind of guy I'd be absolutely drooling all over if he was a decent defender at a more important position.

Wishing for the moon. Generally, these types of players hit first, defend later. You like him better than Gordon Beckham?

membengal
05-15-2008, 11:39 AM
I definitely don't want to see the Reds reach this time around. Take the best looking chalk on the board and move on.

lollipopcurve
05-15-2008, 11:50 AM
In a world with at least one of Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Tim Beckham, Aaron Crow, Buster Poser, Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham available, the Reds have no reason to bother with picking Wallace.

That doesn't even touch upon pitchers like Tanner Scheppers or Shooter Hunt or higher rated 1Bs like Eric Hosmer or Yonder Alonso. Wallace would be an extreme reach. The Reds have a #7 pick and they shouldn't be selecting a #20 talent with it.

I agree that Wallace is a lesser pick than some of these guys (Posey, T. Beckham, Matusz, Alvarez). But after that, I can't be sure. For example, Wallace was better than Smoak by a sizeable margin for Team USA last summer -- run them out against the same pitchers, and it seems to me you have a nice comparison. Statistically this year, Wallace is right there with Smoak and Alonso, and Hosmer, though a very solid HS bat, is a bit of a projection. The fact that Wallace has played 3rd this year (and stolen 14 bags in 17 tries) suggests he's got a bit more natural athleticism than the others, and while his very large legs will surely slow him down before too long, I think you have to consider that a plus for him.

Pitchers are pitchers -- riskier than hitters. And neither Scheppers nor Hunt has the polish or repertoire to have established themselves as obvious starter material (both may end better suited for the pen). Scheppers has had a tender elbow lately, too.

So.... Baseball America lists are only worth so much. They will likely publish a revised ranking of prospects before the draft, too. Ultimately, the difference between a #7 rated player and a #17 may be entirely subjective.

Cyclone792
05-15-2008, 11:52 AM
Wishing for the moon. Generally, these types of players hit first, defend later. You like him better than Gordon Beckham?

No I'd take Gordon Beckham over Wallace, even though there's a chance that Beckham would get moved off shortstop. Wallace is the kind of guy where I wish the Reds had 1st round compensation pick in the bottom half because there's a chance he'd hang around to grab there.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 12:05 PM
In a world with at least one of Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Tim Beckham, Aaron Crow, Buster Poser, Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham available, the Reds have no reason to bother with picking Wallace.

That doesn't even touch upon pitchers like Tanner Scheppers or Shooter Hunt or higher rated 1Bs like Eric Hosmer or Yonder Alonso. Wallace would be an extreme reach. The Reds have a #7 pick and they shouldn't be selecting a #20 talent with it.

Agreed. I like Wallace but I don't like him as much as the guys you listed.

lollipopcurve
05-15-2008, 12:09 PM
Wallace is the kind of guy where I wish the Reds had 1st round compensation pick in the bottom half because there's a chance he'd hang around to grab there.

I don't think so. I think he'll be gone in the top half of the 1st round.

I'm sympathetic to preferring Beckham, though, because of the position. I just can't find convincing reasons to think Smoak, Alonso and Hosmer are necessarily better hitting prospects. Genrally speaking, once you get past the top 1-5 kids in a draft, and you're assessing the next 20-25, it gets tough to decide. Signability, position, makeup, physical projection, injury risk -- all that stuff plays in.

M2
05-15-2008, 12:10 PM
So.... Baseball America lists are only worth so much. They will likely publish a revised ranking of prospects before the draft, too. Ultimately, the difference between a #7 rated player and a #17 may be entirely subjective.

I buy that to an extent, but I haven't seen Wallace rated above Smoak, Hosmer or Alonso anywhere.

Meanwhile Alvarez, Matusz, Crow, Posey, Smoak and the Beckhams are becoming a consensus top 7. The Reds should get one of them. The last two first round picks were cases where the Reds had a subjective opinion that led them to pass over better regarded players on the board.

Though I suspect the Wallace link is a bit like the Kevin Ahrens chatter last year. I doubt the Reds are going to reach for this guy.

dougdirt
05-15-2008, 12:26 PM
Maybe this is just me, but If I have a top 10 pick, I am not taking a first baseman with projected 25 HR power. I agree with cyclone, hes they type of guy I wish we had a sandwich pick for and hope he fell to us with it.

lollipopcurve
05-15-2008, 12:26 PM
Meanwhile Alvarez, Matusz, Crow, Posey, Smoak and the Beckhams are becoming a consensus top 7. The Reds should get one of them.

That may be true, we'll see. I go by BA, MiLB and MLB stuff, and unless at least one of them says that the top 7 has separated from the pack, I'm not going to feel that Crow, Smoak, Hosmer and G. Beckham are clearly better picks than a guy like Wallace.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 12:40 PM
If the Reds draft a first baseman I hope it's Justin Smoak. He's a switch-hitter and has plus power from both sides of the plate, has good plate discipline, and is a decent defender at first base. His plus power from both sides of the plate has drawn comparisons to Lance Berkman.

BRM
05-15-2008, 12:52 PM
If the Reds draft a first baseman I hope it's Justin Smoak. He's a switch-hitter and has plus power from both sides of the plate, has good plate discipline, and is a decent defender at first base. His plus power from both sides of the plate has drawn comparisons to Lance Berkman.

The awesome 1997 Draft:

14) Reds - Brandon Larson SS

16) Astros - Lance Berkman 1B

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 12:56 PM
The awesome 1997 Draft:

14) Reds - Brandon Larson SS

16) Astros - Lance Berkman 1B

You mean you wouldn't draft the great Brandon Larson over Lance Berkman? Next you'll be telling me the Reds should have drafted that Derek Jeter guy instead of Chad Mottola.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 12:58 PM
Saber scouting says there have been strong rumors of Casey Kelly to the Reds at #7. Casey Kelly is the son of Pat Kelly, who was briefly the Reds bench coach last season under Pete Machanin.

Casey Kelly, SS/RHP, Sarasota HS

We’ll get started with senior and top 2008 draft prospect Casey Kelly and his Sarasota Sailors, who also surprisingly lost in the second round of the state playoffs to Lakeland HS (ongoing theme from part two of the recap series with Mychal Gives’ Plant HS being upset in round two). I saw Kelly’s first round game versus Gaither HS, checking in to see Kelly one more time before his season ended.

As mentioned repeatedly here, here, and here Kelly has all the makings of a face-of-the-franchise shortstop that, at 6′3, can already play a near big-league caliber shortstop and has a full ride to Tennessee to play QB.

He has reached the mid-90s on the mound and flashes a consistent plus breaking ball as a first-round caliber prospect on the mound. The only question that remains is how his bat plays. With talk of an out-of-the-box deal to a big market team at the end of the first round and strong rumors of him going as high at #7 to Cincinnati, it appears many teams are buying.

For me, I buy the plus defense, plus arm, above-average wheels and plus-plus makeup; it’s hard no to. I think a power projection could be anywhere from average to plus, closer to plus on the raw power side, because he’s got great bat speed, body torque, and some loft. For reference, plus/60 converts to 20-23 HR power and the ability to take the ball out to dead centerfield in a big league park, with a wood bat.

The real question is on the ability to make contact and I’m still undecided to a degree. I’ll post a full scouting report once I finish with the part three of the News & Notes columns with an FSL recap. To tide you over until then, I made a compilation of some pitching and hitting clips I have taken of Kelly into one video. Sorry, no defensive clips since I didn’t feel like recording the entire game, you’ll just have to take my word for it.

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/05/08/news-notes-last-week-part3/#more-186

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 01:04 PM
Kelly wouldn't be a bad pick but again, I prefer one of: Alvarez, Tim Beckham, Gordon Beckham, Matusz, Crow, Smoak, or Posey.

Other reports on Kelly:

One last player doing all he can move up in the first round is Sarasota (FL) High SS Casey Kelly. Like Smoak, he’s been on watch lists for this draft for two years and also like Smoak, coming into the season scouts started knocking parts of his game almost because they saw him too much and had to think of something different to say after awhile. He’s gained some momentum this spring with his silky-smooth defense and his athletic 6′3 frame. There are no doubts he’ll stick at shortstop and some have said he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now. (I saw him at the Sarasota Classic—scouting report on the way—and do not disagree). Along with a sound approach at the plate, a history of hitting versus good competition, and a dynamic personality, Kelly has endeared himself to scouts and drawn some Derek Jeter comparisons. Kelly also showed a low 90’s fastball and flashed a plus slider on the mound this weekend with multiple team executives in attendance. There are teams in the mid first-round showing heavy interest and with franchise shortstop upside and a scholarship to play QB at Tennessee in the fall, he may be a candidate for an out-of-the-box deal to teams like Detroit or the Yankees.

And another:

The last player of the top prospect cavalcade in Sarasota was the aforementioned hometown SS Casey Kelly. Kelly has been atop prospects lists for the 2008 Draft since he was a sophomore at the powerhouse Sarasota High. Now it’s due-or-die time to convince scouts he is the premium prospect they’ve been saying he will be and he’s succeeding thus far. Projections range from as high as 10th overall down to the sandwich round, but a team somewhere in that range will certainly take an athletic 6′3 shortstop that is close to MLB-ready defensively right now and has a long track record of success hitting against good competition. The team that pops him will be the one that believes most in his bat, which could unlock his star potential.

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/05/08/news-notes-last-week-part3/#more-186

BRM
05-15-2008, 01:11 PM
You mean you wouldn't draft the great Brandon Larson over Lance Berkman? Next you'll be telling me the Reds should have drafted that Derek Jeter guy instead of Chad Mottola.

I remember really liking Larson when he was at LSU.

lollipopcurve
05-15-2008, 01:19 PM
Casey Kelly would be no surprise, given that his dad works for the team -- I'm a little wary of a high schooler who has bat questions, though. Still, the reports folks have posted are pretty darn glowing. I have to wonder if they'd go Kelly alongside another high schooler, Juan Duran, as their top two amateur purchases this year......

M2
05-15-2008, 02:17 PM
My guess is the Reds are telling people they like players more likely to get picked in the latter first round so as not to create any additional buzz for whatever top-rated guy they do want. I'd be shocked if they picked either Kelly or Wallace.

Blue
05-15-2008, 02:44 PM
This doesn't jive with the Buckley "up the middle" MO. I have a hard time believing he'd pick a player that will be athletically limited to one position in the majors.

ChatterRed
05-15-2008, 02:49 PM
No I'd take Gordon Beckham over Wallace, even though there's a chance that Beckham would get moved off shortstop. Wallace is the kind of guy where I wish the Reds had 1st round compensation pick in the bottom half because there's a chance he'd hang around to grab there.


I'm up for Gordon if his wife Victoria comes along. :D

Mario-Rijo
05-15-2008, 04:03 PM
Kelly wouldn't be a bad pick but again, I prefer one of: Alvarez, Tim Beckham, Gordon Beckham, Matusz, Crow, Smoak, or Posey.

Other reports on Kelly:

One last player doing all he can move up in the first round is Sarasota (FL) High SS Casey Kelly. Like Smoak, he’s been on watch lists for this draft for two years and also like Smoak, coming into the season scouts started knocking parts of his game almost because they saw him too much and had to think of something different to say after awhile. He’s gained some momentum this spring with his silky-smooth defense and his athletic 6′3 frame. There are no doubts he’ll stick at shortstop and some have said he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now. (I saw him at the Sarasota Classic—scouting report on the way—and do not disagree). Along with a sound approach at the plate, a history of hitting versus good competition, and a dynamic personality, Kelly has endeared himself to scouts and drawn some Derek Jeter comparisons. Kelly also showed a low 90’s fastball and flashed a plus slider on the mound this weekend with multiple team executives in attendance. There are teams in the mid first-round showing heavy interest and with franchise shortstop upside and a scholarship to play QB at Tennessee in the fall, he may be a candidate for an out-of-the-box deal to teams like Detroit or the Yankees.

And another:

The last player of the top prospect cavalcade in Sarasota was the aforementioned hometown SS Casey Kelly. Kelly has been atop prospects lists for the 2008 Draft since he was a sophomore at the powerhouse Sarasota High. Now it’s due-or-die time to convince scouts he is the premium prospect they’ve been saying he will be and he’s succeeding thus far. Projections range from as high as 10th overall down to the sandwich round, but a team somewhere in that range will certainly take an athletic 6′3 shortstop that is close to MLB-ready defensively right now and has a long track record of success hitting against good competition. The team that pops him will be the one that believes most in his bat, which could unlock his star potential.

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/05/08/news-notes-last-week-part3/#more-186

Why wouldn't he be a good pick at 7? Let's say the best available are Hosmer, Crow and those projected behind them. That IMO would make for an interesting possibility. Even if his contact issues cannot be helped his defense, projected pop, sound approach at the plate and intangibles make him as good as G. Beckham too me. Assuming of course this is a good report.

M2
05-15-2008, 05:15 PM
Why wouldn't he be a good pick at 7? Let's say the best available are Hosmer, Crow and those projected behind them. That IMO would make for an interesting possibility. Even if his contact issues cannot be helped his defense, projected pop, sound approach at the plate and intangibles make him as good as G. Beckham too me. Assuming of course this is a good report.

The thing to remember with scouting reports is they rarely detail what's wrong with the kid. For instance, Kelly's pretty much got Matt Bush's scouting report.

My standard advice is if there's a HS player and his bat isn't drawing raves and thorough explanations about how his offensive game is suited to translate to pro ball (e.g. like these Kelly scouting reports), then it's a big red flag and don't even think about taking him in the top 10 picks.

Also beware of obvious hyperbole - e.g. "some have said he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now." No, he can't and if the scouting report is going to embrace that kind of fiction then you've got to wonder what other flights of fancy it contains.

Sounds like Kelly's an athletic kid with height and plus defensive tools, but who doesn't have a particularly promising swing. While I might be inclined to pounce on that in the mid-to-latter first round, no way would I draft it at #7.

Mario-Rijo
05-15-2008, 07:24 PM
The thing to remember with scouting reports is they rarely detail what's wrong with the kid. For instance, Kelly's pretty much got Matt Bush's scouting report.

My standard advice is if there's a HS player and his bat isn't drawing raves and thorough explanations about how his offensive game is suited to translate to pro ball (e.g. like these Kelly scouting reports), then it's a big red flag and don't even think about taking him in the top 10 picks.

Also beware of obvious hyperbole - e.g. "some have said he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now." No, he can't and if the scouting report is going to embrace that kind of fiction then you've got to wonder what other flights of fancy it contains.

Sounds like Kelly's an athletic kid with height and plus defensive tools, but who doesn't have a particularly promising swing. While I might be inclined to pounce on that in the mid-to-latter first round, no way would I draft it at #7.

Hum, makes sense. What about then one of those arms in the top 10ish in the 1st and hope Kelly could fall to us in the 2nd? Or do we have a sandwich pick this year???

Mario-Rijo
05-15-2008, 07:27 PM
Hum, makes sense. What about then one of those arms in the top 10ish in the 1st and hope Kelly could fall to us in the 2nd? Or do we have a sandwich pick this year???

Disregard I forgot about Cordero costing us a 2nd rounder and no Sandwich pick either. Crap!

M2
05-15-2008, 07:33 PM
Hum, makes sense. What about then one of those arms in the top 10ish in the 1st and hope Kelly could fall to us in the 2nd? Or do we have a sandwich pick this year???

The Reds have to wait until slot #84 to make their second pick (the #53 pick goes to the Brewers for Coco Cordero). Kelly probably wouldn't drop to #53 anyway.

Here's the official list (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2008/265820.html) of the picks in the first four rounds. Given that the Reds have a top pick and then a long wait, I'm hoping the franchise isn't afraid to go above slot value to get what it deems the top talent on the board.

(Sorry, I was posting when you typed in the revision.)

RedlegJake
05-16-2008, 10:18 AM
I'm hoping the franchise isn't afraid to go above slot value to get what it deems the top talent on the board.

(Sorry, I was posting when you typed in the revision.)

Agreed. And I hope that signability scares Alvarez or Smoak down to #7 (though I doubt it). Either Beckham, too.

As for Casey Kelley his bat scares me. He sounds like an infield version of Drew Stubbs - very athletic toolsy HS kid with everything but questions about his bat. I'm sick of that - take the best bat and figure out where he'll fit defensively. If the Reds draft a position player I'm concerned with his bat first and foremost. The Reds are too adept at good glove no bat draft picks.