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WVRedsFan
05-15-2008, 01:38 AM
The last six games have been very successful for the Reds. They won 4 of 6 and three in a row, but the same script we've followed for several years is happening again. The bullpen is failing us.

In the six game run, Reds starters have done rather well:

IP - 37.2
H - 38
ER - 17
BB - 15
SO -30
HR - 5
ERA-4.06

Take out horrible starts by Belisle and Cueto (9.2 innings of 15 hits and 11 earned runs), and it's exemplary. The bullpen is another story:

IP - 15.1
H - 20
ER - 16
BB - 8
SO - 17
HR - 4
ERA-9.41

Of the six relievers who have pitched in this span, only Affeldt has pitched well in three appearances. Bray, Codero, Burton, and Weathers have been pitching batting practice. Lincoln has been simply horrible (3 IP allowing 6 hits and 8 runs).

Wayne Krivsky tried everything and it didn't work. It's still not working. Bray and Burton are not ready for prime time, Weathers is over the hill, and Lincoln should get a one way ticket to DFA land. Cordero will be OK if used correctly.

How long has the bullpen been our downfall? I've lost count of the years.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 01:49 AM
Bray has looked pretty good in his last two appearances and Burton has be inconsistent but you gotta like the 6 BB/23 K ratio in 17 innings. I wouldn't write those two guys off just yet. Lincoln is struggling and beginning to comeback down to earth. Weathers has struggled all year. Affeldt has been very good as has Cordero with the exception of tonight. Look for Roenicke to be called up at some point and provide the Reds with another power arm in the pen.

Mario-Rijo
05-15-2008, 01:55 AM
Bray has looked pretty good in his last two appearances and Burton has be inconsistent but you gotta like the 6 BB/23 K ratio in 17 innings. I wouldn't write those two guys off just yet. Lincoln is struggling and beginning to comeback down to earth. Weathers has struggled all year. Affeldt has been very good as has Cordero with the exception of tonight. Look for Roenicke to be called up at some point and provide the Reds with another power arm in the pen.

I don't know about Cordero. Of course you can't argue with his results sans tonight but he has had an awful lot of pitches just scolded lately but fortunately right at people. And his control has been a bit suspect as well, although with the Marlins it wasn't as apparent because they tend to be free-swingers. It should be interesting to see going forward if these things continue or it was just a "slump" but one that wasn't apparent because of decent defensive play and good fortune.

WVRedsFan
05-15-2008, 02:00 AM
Bray has looked pretty good in his last two appearances and Burton has be inconsistent but you gotta like the 6 BB/23 K ratio in 17 innings. I wouldn't write those two guys off just yet. Lincoln is struggling and beginning to comeback down to earth. Weathers has struggled all year. Affeldt has been very good as has Cordero with the exception of tonight. Look for Roenicke to be called up at some point and provide the Reds with another power arm in the pen.

No offense, OBM, but being old school, I look at two things when I evaluate a reliever--how many hits he gives up and how hard the batted ball is hit. the BB/K ratio is nice, but when you're giving up double the number of hits as innings pitched (and those hits were scalded) and nearly a run an inning pitched, I could care less about the ratio. He's not getting the job done.

fearofpopvol1
05-15-2008, 02:09 AM
No doubt, it's not very good. I think Weathers has looked pretty good though since returning, but he's obviously not a long-term option. Affeldt has looked like the most consistent so far this year.

To really be a threat, the Reds have to find a Heath Bell kind of reliever for the backend. Even a Cla Meredith type would do. To really be a force, you're going to need another big boy (preferably 2) in the pen.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 02:14 AM
No offense, OBM, but being old school, I look at two things when I evaluate a reliever--how many hits he gives up and how hard the batted ball is hit. the BB/K ratio is nice, but when you're giving up double the number of hits as innings pitched (and those hits were scalded) and nearly a run an inning pitched, I could care less about the ratio. He's not getting the job done.

The Reds awful defense plays a big part in the high hit totals.

WVRedsFan
05-15-2008, 02:16 AM
No doubt, it's not very good. I think Weathers has looked pretty good though since returning, but he's obviously not a long-term option. Affeldt has looked like the most consistent so far this year.

To really be a threat, the Reds have to find a Heath Bell kind of reliever for the backend. Even a Cla Meredith type would do. To really be a force, you're going to need another big boy (preferably 2) in the pen.

I may be just a little short on these stastics, but I have Weathers down for 4.2 innings allowing 6 hits and three runs since his return. Hardly anything to write home about or brag about, but he has looked better.

I agree that a Bell or Meredith is what we need. The great failing of the Krivksy administration, regardless of how you feel about what he did with the minors (which I feel is highly overrated) or his effort in getting players, was he could not judge pitching. The list is long of the ones he obtained to "fix" it and it has been a total failure. We just have to hope for better times and better decisions.

fearofpopvol1
05-15-2008, 02:38 AM
I may be just a little short on these stastics, but I have Weathers down for 4.2 innings allowing 6 hits and three runs since his return. Hardly anything to write home about or brag about, but he has looked better.

I agree that a Bell or Meredith is what we need. The great failing of the Krivksy administration, regardless of how you feel about what he did with the minors (which I feel is highly overrated) or his effort in getting players, was he could not judge pitching. The list is long of the ones he obtained to "fix" it and it has been a total failure. We just have to hope for better times and better decisions.

Weathers has not been great, but his numbers look a lot better since coming back from the DL...

He's had 7 strikeouts in 4.2 innings with only 1 walk. ERA is 3.86. He's given up 2 ER (1 of which was a homer). It's a smaller sample size, but it's more on par with what he was last season than the first part of this season.

PuffyPig
05-15-2008, 09:09 AM
The Reds have won every game this year that they have led after 6 innings.

Last year we lost 31 of such games.

There's certainly something better going on here.

coachw513
05-15-2008, 09:25 AM
For those that know much more than I...

How legitimately close to ready is Josh Roenicke??...what are his current numbers in Louisville??...what makes him more capable of being more than an AAAA pitcher than, let's say McBeth, Magic Man, or Coffey??...

thanks for the info...

membengal
05-15-2008, 09:28 AM
The Reds have won every game this year that they have led after 6 innings.

Last year we lost 31 of such games.

There's certainly something better going on here.

Very good point, PP.

Again, its a conversation I have had across a number of threads critical of the staff so far. Its weird, but there feels like a disconnect between the numbers and what we see from them as the season has progressed. I think in large measure that has to do with this being a staff that misses a ton more bats than previous editions have. As long as they keep doing that, I really do think the rest of the numbers will improve, and improve rapidly. Remove some chaff from the back of the pen, and that will help too.

But the core of a very good staff is in place, and there is no reason this team still can't make it .500 or slightly better, which was the prediction from most of the level-headed folk on this site. I see progress. I just do.

Kc61
05-15-2008, 09:55 AM
Roenicke is at AA and has not been lights out this year. He's not ready. The reinforcements at Louisville include lefty Herrera and, yes, Majewski who actually has pitched very well of late. There may be some others I'm leaving out.

I think the pen will be ok. Again, not great, but ok.

Cordero has pitched great except last night which was his third straight game. He basically made one bad pitch. One terrible pitch. Hopefully he rests tonight.

Weathers seems to be rounding into shape and I expect better things from him. For this year, don't see him going beyond this year.

Affeldt has been fine. Dusty seems reluctant to use him this series since Fla is very right handed at the plate.

Burton and Bray are works in progress. Young relievers with good stuff. You have to stick with them and let them take their lumps some times. Talented guys, though.

That leaves Fogg and Lincoln. Fogg is a long man, essentially a sixth starter, who is there really for emergency innings eating. Not a big deal, he's really an insurance policy.

Lincoln has had some bad outings and his numbers aren't good. He's the guy I could see moving. But in his defense, he's pitched some good outings and did well last night with a perfect eighth until the ninth inning melt down. Yes, it would be great if he were replaced by a higher end reliever, like a Heath Bell type.

This bullpen would be better if Burton and Bray were better established guys, more consistent. But you need to give young relievers a chance. I think they'll be good eventually.

SirFelixCat
05-15-2008, 10:14 AM
The Reds have won every game this year that they have led after 6 innings.

Last year we lost 31 of such games.

There's certainly something better going on here.

Pretty much sums it up for me.

I don't know the numbers (and I'm too tired to look them up) but I'm going to guess that in a lot of the games where the BP has been teh suck, the Reds offense was even worse, so it really was a non-issue, no?

PuffyPig
05-15-2008, 10:55 AM
Pretty much sums it up for me.

I don't know the numbers (and I'm too tired to look them up) but I'm going to guess that in a lot of the games where the BP has been teh suck, the Reds offense was even worse, so it really was a non-issue, no?

Last night was the first time that I thought all year that the bullpen really let us down big time.

It will happen from time to time. Most of the bullpen beatings have occured in games we were losing, and they made it impossible to come back.

The biggest obstacle to us having an OK pitching staff is the defense which allows way too many balls hit into play to become hits. You change that BABIP from .326 to a more normal .296 and you've made every pitcher that much better.

If Bruce can repalce Griffey, along with Janish replacing Keppinger, should help out in that regard. An OF of Dunn, Patterson and Bruce is likely league average (and maybe even better) on defense. Our existing offense defense is likely the worst in the majors in turning BIP into outs,especially when Patterson doesn't play.

membengal
05-15-2008, 11:19 AM
I am definitely tired of balls falling for singles into RF because Jr. can't move quickly enough to get to the sinking line drives anymore.

SMcGavin
05-15-2008, 11:37 AM
What do Cordero, Burton, Bray, and Affeldt have in common?

They are all striking out more than a batter per inning.

membengal
05-15-2008, 11:44 AM
What do Cordero, Burton, Bray, and Affeldt have in common?

They are all striking out more than a batter per inning.

Yup. Goes back to my missing bats observation. The bones of a good staff are starting to come together. I think improvement will come rapidly over the summer.

REDREAD
05-15-2008, 11:56 AM
The Reds awful defense plays a big part in the high hit totals.

Are we talking about Bray here? Not sure from the context.

The thing is, we have starting pitchers that are performing, despite having the same defense.

The bullpen is not getting the job done lately.

I think WVRedsFan has a point that the pen is still very questionable.

I do hope Cordero is just in a little bit of a slump now. I'm not panicing yet, but the Reds absolutely NEED him to perform well. I don't expect him to be perfect (no one is). Hopefully he snaps back.

Likewise, I'm not ready to DFA Lincoln yet. He's an enigma, no doubt, but we just don't have the depth in our system. I'm not ready to rush up Reonoke yet. Let's avoid the temptation to rush any youngsters. Bring them up when the development plan says they should come up, not because the ML team is desperate.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 11:57 AM
For those that know much more than I...

How legitimately close to ready is Josh Roenicke??...what are his current numbers in Louisville??...what makes him more capable of being more than an AAAA pitcher than, let's say McBeth, Magic Man, or Coffey??...

thanks for the info...

Roenicke is a legit closer prospect. He throws his fastball in the mid-to-upper 90's and mixes in a cutter/splitter and a slider. He threw five shutout innings this spring with the Reds and drew some praise from Dusty Baker and others. He's currently pitching in AA Chattanooga with a 3.63 ERA and 10 BB/21 K ratio in 17.1 innings. The walk totals a high but he struggled with command early in the season but has really been much better in that department recently as he hasn't walked a batter in his last seven appearances. He'll probably see some time in Cincy during the summer.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 11:59 AM
Are we talking about Bray here? Not sure from the context.

The thing is, we have starting pitchers that are performing, despite having the same defense.


I'm talking about the whole defense in general.

I don't think anyone will doubt the bullpen was awful last night. Mike Lincoln is struggling badly and will probably be replaced soon unless he turns it around quickly.

REDREAD
05-15-2008, 12:03 PM
I'm talking about the whole defense in general.

I don't think anyone will doubt the bullpen was awful last night. Mike Lincoln is struggling badly and will probably be replaced soon unless he turns it around quickly.

I agree the defense could be improved.
At the same time, outside of Cordero, every bullpen arm is marginal/questionable. Sure, bad pitchers are helped by a better defense, but they are still bad pitchers. I'm not saying that the entire bullpen is bad.
The jury is still out on some of them, and I include Bray, Burton, and Lincoln in this catagory. I don't have a whole lot of confidence in Weathers. I think the DL trip made him rest a bit and helped him, but I think he will break down again.

edabbs44
05-15-2008, 12:04 PM
What do Cordero, Burton, Bray, and Affeldt have in common?

They are all striking out more than a batter per inning.

And?

*BaseClogger*
05-15-2008, 12:11 PM
And?

strikeouts for pitchers are highly indicative of success...

membengal
05-15-2008, 12:11 PM
And that is a good thing to have in their arsenal. Burton and Bray are both young and have a chance for continued improvement. Cordero is solid. Affeldt has proven to be far more effective out of the bullpen than I could have hoped.

Missing bats remains the one constant for a staff that will, over time, help control the other numbers. Less balls in play, less chance for bad stuff to happen. As Burton matures, I think he has a chance to become a Heath Bell. There is no reason Bray, with his stuff, can't get better.

I simply don't see the need for extreme pessimism this early into a season that most of us figured would be a building year toward '09. They are 18-23, they are by no means out of the race, and there is much to happy about as they put the pieces together.

SMcGavin
05-15-2008, 12:27 PM
strikeouts for pitchers are highly indicative of success...

Yeah. And I pretty much agree with what membengal is saying. The bullpen isn't a finished product but there are four guys in there right now with high caliber arms. That's promising, especially compared to the bullpens the Reds are used to running out there. When I look at our pen I see something that is going to improve as the season goes along, not something on the edge of implosion.

*BaseClogger*
05-15-2008, 12:30 PM
Yeah. And I pretty much agree with what membengal is saying. The bullpen isn't a finished product but there are four guys in there right now with high caliber arms. That's promising, especially compared to the bullpens the Reds are used to running out there. When I look at our pen I see something that is going to improve as the season goes along, not something on the edge of implosion.

especially improve if the Reds can keep Bruce in RF and Janish at SS...

SMcGavin
05-15-2008, 12:33 PM
I simply don't see the need for extreme pessimism this early into a season that most of us figured would be a building year toward '09. They are 18-23, they are by no means out of the race, and there is much to happy about as they put the pieces together.

This is the key for me. As someone who was thinking .500 or so for this season before trying to compete in 2009, I am actually more excited about our future now than I was at the beginning of the year. I never imagined Volquez would be this good, and Votto has been better than I anticipated. Cueto has flashed signs of brilliance too. Jay Bruce is right around the corner with a big bat and ready to replace Griffey's "defense" for next season. Things are looking up, and I don't mind the struggles along the way as long as I see a promising future ahead. A couple of seasons ago I didn't see that future. Now I do.

flyer85
05-15-2008, 12:51 PM
Belisle's stuff might play really well near the back of a bullpen ... as a starter, not so much.

Falls City Beer
05-15-2008, 01:08 PM
strikeouts for pitchers are highly indicative of success...

Beware "small sample" and "potential."

No question that Cordero's got what it takes. And Affeldt looks passable, maybe better. But Burton appears to allow enough HR to countervail much of the good he does with the K. And Bray is still pretty much an unknown at this point.

edabbs44
05-15-2008, 01:11 PM
strikeouts for pitchers are highly indicative of success...

Let me know when the success starts.

M2
05-15-2008, 01:37 PM
At the same time, outside of Cordero, every bullpen arm is marginal/questionable

That's true of most bullpens. The good news for Reds fans is that's better than the no questions pens of recent years. Those units had no upside. In general teams spend the first two months of the season sorting out which relievers will work in that given season. For instance, last year Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez came up huge for the Indians. This year neither one looks like he's capable of a repeat performance.

The Reds don't profile as a lights out unit this season, but they very well might find a working mix.

SMcGavin
05-15-2008, 03:23 PM
Let me know when the success starts.

Combined 2008 ERA of Cordero, Burton, Bray, Affeldt: 3.47

The success for those four started March 31, you just haven't been paying attention.

BRM
05-15-2008, 03:32 PM
Combined 2008 ERA of Cordero, Burton, Bray, Affeldt: 3.47

The success for those four started March 31, you just haven't been paying attention.

That low ERA is because of Affeldt and Cordero. Burton and Bray aren't helping it any.

Burton - 4.58
Bray - 5.06

Falls City Beer
05-15-2008, 03:39 PM
That low ERA is because of Affeldt and Cordero. Burton and Bray aren't helping it any.

Burton - 4.58
Bray - 5.06

It's obviously small sample size, so it cuts both ways, but both of their OPSA are well over .800.

edabbs44
05-15-2008, 08:54 PM
Combined 2008 ERA of Cordero, Burton, Bray, Affeldt: 3.47

The success for those four started March 31, you just haven't been paying attention.

The success for two of them hasn't even begun.

GAC
05-15-2008, 10:39 PM
The bullpen is not getting the job done lately.

Very true. They have been shaky LATELY. But they performed pretty good for the first month of the season (even with Coffey in there).

The fact that they hit a rough spot over the last week, which happens to a lot of bullpens, is not necessarily indicative of future performance. It's a small window right now.

WV (and respectfully, this is not a shot at you buddy)... you say the starters have done pretty good. That is if you take out horrendous starts by Belisle and Cueto. One can make any rotation's numbers look good if one takes out the horrendous starts. ;)

Shouldn't you then use the same "approach" with the bullpen then?

PuffyPig expresses my sentiments....


The Reds have won every game this year that they have led after 6 innings.

Last year we lost 31 of such games.

There's certainly something better going on here.

There is something there. And it's still a "work in progress", with potential, as far as I'm concerned.

That blowup the last night in the 9th by Lincoln and then Codero blew me away. But unless we start seeing that on a more consistent basis, day after day, week after week, I'm not too worried yet.

Lincoln pitched a solid 8th inning. I had no problem with Dusty sending him out for the 9th. But he should have done so cautionary with someone up in the BP ready to go just in case. He didn't. He then had to rush someone down there after he was giving up hits and hitting people.

Falls City Beer
05-15-2008, 10:43 PM
Very true. They have been shaky LATELY. But they performed pretty good for the first month of the season (even with Coffey in there).

The fact that they hit a rough spot over the last week, which happens to a lot of bullpens, is not necessarily indicative of future performance. It's a small window right now.

WV (and respectfully, this is not a shot at you buddy)... you say the starters have done pretty good. That is if you take out horrendous starts by Belisle and Cueto. One can make any rotation's numbers look good if one takes out the horrendous starts. ;)

Shouldn't you then use the same "approach" with the bullpen then?

PuffyPig expresses my sentiments....



There is something there. And it's still a "work in progress", with potential, as far as I'm concerned.

That blowup the last night in the 9th by Lincoln and then Codero blew me away. But unless we start seeing that on a more consistent basis, day after day, week after week, I'm not too worried yet.

Lincoln pitched a solid 8th inning. I had no problem with Dusty sending him out for the 9th. But he should have done so cautionary with someone up in the BP ready to go just in case. He didn't. He then had to rush someone down there after he was giving up hits and hitting people.

A pitcher who can't retire three batters in order to protect a six-run lead belongs nowhere near a MLB bullpen. I don't care if he struck out the side in the eighth, retired them on three pitches or what. Lincoln needs to go.

WVRedsFan
05-16-2008, 01:04 AM
Very true. They have been shaky LATELY. But they performed pretty good for the first month of the season (even with Coffey in there).

The fact that they hit a rough spot over the last week, which happens to a lot of bullpens, is not necessarily indicative of future performance. It's a small window right now.

WV (and respectfully, this is not a shot at you buddy)... you say the starters have done pretty good. That is if you take out horrendous starts by Belisle and Cueto. One can make any rotation's numbers look good if one takes out the horrendous starts. ;)

Shouldn't you then use the same "approach" with the bullpen then?

It is just a week, but over that week, you can't find much to be happy about except Afeldt. Look at these stats:


Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO ERA
Bray 1.1 3 2 2 0 2 13.85
Lincoln 3 6 8 8 2 2 26.00
Cordero 4.1 2 2 2 2 6 4.49
Burton 2 4 2 2 1 1 9.00
Stormy 2.2 4 3 2 1 5 6.92
Affeldt 2 1 0 0 2 1 0.00

That's a total of 18 appearances. Not good

PuffyPig
05-16-2008, 09:32 AM
A pitcher who can't retire three batters in order to protect a six-run lead belongs nowhere near a MLB bullpen. I don't care if he struck out the side in the eighth, retired them on three pitches or what. Lincoln needs to go.


Look I'm not defending Lincoln as I would like him gone.

But every pitcher, at one time or another, can't get it done.

I remember Gagne, at the heigth of his success, giving up 5 or so runs against the Reds in the ninth. Hoffman has done it against us. Smoltz, early in his relief career, gave up 6-8 runs in one outing. Even Izzy, when he could retire batters,had a huge bad game agianst us when we got 6 runs in the 9th.

Lincoln deserves to go based on his cummulative outings. No one deserves to go based on one outing.

westofyou
05-16-2008, 10:56 AM
Look I'm not defending Lincoln as I would like him gone.

But every pitcher, at one time or another, can't get it done.


Yesterday


Top 8th: Pittsburgh
- J. Isringhausen relieved R. Flores
- D. Mientkiewicz walked
- R. Paulino singled to left, D. Mientkiewicz to second
- C. Gomez reached on fielder's choice, D. Mientkiewicz scored, R. Paulino to third on pitcher J. Isringhausen's throwing error
- J. Bay hit for J. Grabow
- J. Bay homered to deep left, C. Gomez and R. Paulino scored
- F. Sanchez grounded out to third
- N. McLouth walked

REDREAD
05-16-2008, 12:07 PM
That's true of most bullpens. The good news for Reds fans is that's better than the no questions pens of recent years. Those units had no upside. In general teams spend the first two months of the season sorting out which relievers will work in that given season. For instance, last year Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez came up huge for the Indians. This year neither one looks like he's capable of a repeat performance.

The Reds don't profile as a lights out unit this season, but they very well might find a working mix.


No doubt that Cordero helped out a lot. As did Affeldt.

Not trading Weathers last year was a mistake.

Lincoln and Mercker were good spring training invites, but there's still a lot of work to do. I think Wayne far overestimated Burton, and should've gotten another fairly solid BP arm.

REDREAD
05-16-2008, 12:10 PM
It's obviously small sample size, so it cuts both ways, but both of their OPSA are well over .800.


Yes, that's what's often overlooked. Sure, it's good for a pitcher to strike out people, but if they give up a lot of hits (and walks in Burton's case), it negates the K's.. I honestly think that K's are starting to become very overrated, along with this whole Fip arguement.. In the end, guys like Burton have to stop runners from scoring, and they aren't doing that good of a job of it.. BBs, hits (especially HRs) are hurting Burton.

REDREAD
05-16-2008, 12:12 PM
A pitcher who can't retire three batters in order to protect a six-run lead belongs nowhere near a MLB bullpen. I don't care if he struck out the side in the eighth, retired them on three pitches or what. Lincoln needs to go.

I see your point.. but the problem is that Lincoln legitimately is one of the best options. It's pretty much Lincoln or Coffey. I don't consider Maj or Roenoke as legit options at this point. Homer is a legit option, but it's not worth disrupting his development plan in a lost season..

PuffyPig
05-16-2008, 12:25 PM
Yes, that's what's often overlooked. Sure, it's good for a pitcher to strike out people, but if they give up a lot of hits (and walks in Burton's case), it negates the K's.. I honestly think that K's are starting to become very overrated, along with this whole Fip arguement.. In the end, guys like Burton have to stop runners from scoring, and they aren't doing that good of a job of it.. BBs, hits (especially HRs) are hurting Burton.


Firstly, Burton is not walking a lot, about 3 per 9 innings, as he has a 23-6 K/W rate in 17 2/3 innings.

He's given up a lot of hits, to the tune of a .402 BABIP.

The only thing that Burton has done bad this year is giving up 3 HR's. It's hard to know if this is a trend, as he only gace up 2 last year. But since he's not giving up more FB's this year, I'm not that concerned.

Burton has been fine. A even normal Cincy BABIP will have him pitching extremely well.

RedlegJake
05-16-2008, 12:40 PM
I hate to point this out but as much as I shudder at the thought...if Lincoln goes it's likely to be Maj who gets the call because he's pitched well in his last few outings. Majewski instwsd of Lincoln. Why am I not inspired with hope in this case?

Kc61
05-16-2008, 01:29 PM
I hate to point this out but as much as I shudder at the thought...if Lincoln goes it's likely to be Maj who gets the call because he's pitched well in his last few outings. Majewski instwsd of Lincoln. Why am I not inspired with hope in this case?


I am far from a Maj fan but looking at some recent minor league outings, he may be ready to pitch decently again. My hunch is that the Reds will give him one more chance. Thing is, he's young and he did have success with the Nationals.

Overall, I think the Reds need one additional very good righty set up man on the team. Someone who can occasionally pitch two innings. Not sure such a guy is currently in the organization, although Roenicke is a possibility (not sure Roenicke is a multi-inning workhorse type).

GAC
05-16-2008, 02:07 PM
A pitcher who can't retire three batters in order to protect a six-run lead belongs nowhere near a MLB bullpen. I don't care if he struck out the side in the eighth, retired them on three pitches or what. Lincoln needs to go.


Do you feel the same way after Cordero got blasted? Has this been a consistent occurrence with Lincoln? No. If so, then I'd agree with you.

Lincoln, in the month of April, appeared in 9 games with an ERA 0f 2.77 with 4 Holds.

And as some have pointed out.... look at the options. ;)

REDREAD
05-16-2008, 02:20 PM
Firstly, Burton is not walking a lot, about 3 per 9 innings, as he has a 23-6 K/W rate in 17 2/3 innings.

He's given up a lot of hits, to the tune of a .402 BABIP.

The only thing that Burton has done bad this year is giving up 3 HR's. It's hard to know if this is a trend, as he only gace up 2 last year. But since he's not giving up more FB's this year, I'm not that concerned.

Burton has been fine. A even normal Cincy BABIP will have him pitching extremely well.

Well, however you want to slice it, he's giving up an .809 OPS against.
He's giving up a .341 OBP against (as opposed to 297 OBP against last year)
Not getting the job done..

Although I know realize that I was thinking of his BB rate from the previous year (had looked that up for another post)..

I don't thinkwe should assume that BABIP is going to "Even out" and Burton is going to be good again. He is getting hit hard. That's why his BABIP has shot up. That has me concerned. I haven't seen much of him on TV so I don't know what happened, but something has definitely changed for the worse.

*BaseClogger*
05-16-2008, 03:29 PM
I don't thinkwe should assume that BABIP is going to "Even out" and Burton is going to be good again. He is getting hit hard. That's why his BABIP has shot up. That has me concerned. I haven't seen much of him on TV so I don't know what happened, but something has definitely changed for the worse.

Getting hit hard? He's got a 11.8 LD%...

PuffyPig
05-16-2008, 04:31 PM
Well, however you want to slice it, he's giving up an .809 OPS against.
He's giving up a .341 OBP against (as opposed to 297 OBP against last year)
Not getting the job done..

Although I know realize that I was thinking of his BB rate from the previous year (had looked that up for another post)..

I don't thinkwe should assume that BABIP is going to "Even out" and Burton is going to be good again. He is getting hit hard. That's why his BABIP has shot up. That has me concerned. I haven't seen much of him on TV so I don't know what happened, but something has definitely changed for the worse.

His .809 OPS against is based on a .400 or so BABIP. If that goes down to .300, his OPS against would be likely in the low .700's. You can't ignore what an unlucky BABIP does to most of your other stats. If the BABIP normalizes, his hita and runs against will decreease rapidly.

Other than the 3 HR's he's been pitching fine. Name another pitcher with such a K/W rate who is unsuccessful.

I think we can assume that BABIP will even out. That''s the very foundation of it.

oregonred
05-16-2008, 11:09 PM
Funny game...

Four best pen arms used in sequence tonight

3 IP, 2H, 1BB, 0ER, 5K

= one run victory :)

M2
05-16-2008, 11:42 PM
Funny game...

Four best pen arms used in sequence tonight

3 IP, 2H, 1BB, 0ER, 5K

= one run victory :)

It all fits together so much easier when you've got a guy at the end of the bullpen who can strike out the side in the 9th.

membengal
05-17-2008, 02:39 AM
No doubt, M2. It really, really, does.

SMcGavin
06-01-2008, 10:39 PM
Let me know when the success starts.

Francisco Cordero 2.19
Jared Burton 3.03
Bill Bray 3.21
Jeremy Affeldt 4.15

Combined ERA of Cordero, Burton, Bray, Affeldt: 3.15

Caveat Emperor
06-01-2008, 10:40 PM
7th - Bill Bray / Jeremy Affeldt
8th - Jared Burton
9th - Francisco Cordero

It's so simple, even a cave-man could do it.

membengal
06-01-2008, 11:09 PM
Yup. And it's why I will not join in with hand-wringing over the bullpen. The bones of an effective pen are in place. It's up to Dusty to use them correctly.

Aronchis
06-01-2008, 11:12 PM
Just a hunch, but I think Roenicke may push this team over in the bullpen department. Of course, this isn't a new idea.

Caveat Emperor
06-01-2008, 11:14 PM
Yup. And it's why I will not join in with hand-wringing over the bullpen. The bones of an effective pen are in place. It's up to Dusty to use them correctly.

They're a power RHP and a LOOGY away from having a pretty damn good bullpen, IMO.

If Roenicke can hack it at AAA, that solves one of those issues internally.

membengal
06-01-2008, 11:16 PM
Indeed, CE. And, actually, I happen to agree with Aronchis on this one. The power RH arm may be close in the form of Roenicke. Finding a LOOGY in june/july should be among the more doable trade deadline type tasks, assuming there isn't a LOOGY candidate in-house (don't know if Herrara's screwball is more effective against righties than lefties, thereby disqualifying him from true LOOGY prospect status...)

boognish
06-01-2008, 11:18 PM
Yup. And it's why I will not join in with hand-wringing over the bullpen. The bones of an effective pen are in place. It's up to Dusty to use them correctly.

...and the hand-wringing will commence once more when Lincoln or Mercker gives up a 3-run HR.

Cordero greatly improves the pen, there is still a ways to go, but the small sample size theatre will continue--with appropriate reactions on either side--until enough depth is assembled to circumvent having to use replacement level types.

If the starters can get deep enough into games in order to utilize the top BP arms on a more regular basis, the pen will look a whole lot better. Weathers, though my lukewarm support of his contract was among the most enthusiastic on the board, appears to be at the end of the line. Minus him, things look more rosy than in recent years. Affeldt is also pretty inconsistent; I'd like to have a LOOGY like Coutlangus in hand, though like Affeldt, he walked way too many.

membengal
06-01-2008, 11:22 PM
But that hand-wringing is over chaff. We know its chaff. I assume Jocketty knows its chaff. And, in the team's defense, pretty much every ML team has bullpen chaff. Where I am more sanguine, boognish, is over what is now there once you sift through the chaff. Move Lincoln out for Roenicke? Move Weathers to some other team and bring in a true LOOGY? Now the team is close to ready to go through dog days with a pen that can really help it win games.

I assume Jock knows precisely who he now needs to move to get it done. I suspect much of the very active pace of movement of players up a level in the minors over the last week was Jocketty preparing to swing a few deals OR getting Roenicke, say, ready to come up to the bigs before long.

At the least though, the guts of a competent pen are in place. This past weekend of really good work by them over the Braves was further proof of that...

boognish
06-02-2008, 01:39 AM
But that hand-wringing is over chaff. We know its chaff. I assume Jocketty knows its chaff. And, in the team's defense, pretty much every ML team has bullpen chaff. Where I am more sanguine, boognish, is over what is now there once you sift through the chaff. Move Lincoln out for Roenicke? Move Weathers to some other team and bring in a true LOOGY? Now the team is close to ready to go through dog days with a pen that can really help it win games.

I assume Jock knows precisely who he now needs to move to get it done. I suspect much of the very active pace of movement of players up a level in the minors over the last week was Jocketty preparing to swing a few deals OR getting Roenicke, say, ready to come up to the bigs before long.

At the least though, the guts of a competent pen are in place. This past weekend of really good work by them over the Braves was further proof of that...

I largely agree. One more "lockdown" reliever will take things from mediocre to very good; but where to find the additional reliever? Whether Jocketty can leverage current resources to find that guy will bear itself out; and my memory says he has been able to find effective guys from unlikely sources historically. Whether someone from the McBeth/Roenicke/Pelland and friends crew can step up and contribute remains to be seen.

My overall opinion is that there isn't that great a difference between serviceable and good insofar as relievers go, with the great equalizer being starters' performance: it leads to fewer innings and less exposure for Lincoln, Mercker, et al, who can be effective with limited exposure.

WVRedsFan
06-02-2008, 02:22 AM
I largely agree. One more "lockdown" reliever will take things from mediocre to very good; but where to find the additional reliever? Whether Jocketty can leverage current resources to find that guy will bear itself out; and my memory says he has been able to find effective guys from unlikely sources historically. Whether someone from the McBeth/Roenicke/Pelland and friends crew can step up and contribute remains to be seen.

My overall opinion is that there isn't that great a difference between serviceable and good insofar as relievers go, with the great equalizer being starters' performance: it leads to fewer innings and less exposure for Lincoln, Mercker, et al, who can be effective with limited exposure.

I have total confidence that Jocketty will be able to formulate a bullpen that is effective, a feeling I never, ever got with Krivsky in charge. When Jocketty took over, the Reds were 9-12 and would sinik farther. Since he took over we've seen Hairston take on a role that has been successful, Jay Bruce appear, and Votto becoming the everyday first baseman to where his record as GM is now 19-17. Coincidence? Maybe, but positive things are happening. You have to have confidence in what is going on.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2008, 11:46 AM
FWIW, Josh Roenicke made his AAA debut last night and threw a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts. He reportedly hit 98 mph on the radar gun. Hopefully someone like David Weathers is shipped out before long and replaced with Roenicke.

paulrichjr
06-02-2008, 11:57 AM
I have total confidence that Jocketty will be able to formulate a bullpen that is effective, a feeling I never, ever got with Krivsky in charge. When Jocketty took over, the Reds were 9-12 and would sinik farther. Since he took over we've seen Hairston take on a role that has been successful, Jay Bruce appear, and Votto becoming the everyday first baseman to where his record as GM is now 19-17. Coincidence? Maybe, but positive things are happening. You have to have confidence in what is going on.

I agree with you almost 100% of the time but to give credit to Walt for anything so far is a bit of a stretch. This team is 100% Krivs team as of this moment. I know you didn't care a lot for Krivs but what part of Walt's "nothing" has created this better record. The team is playing better because

1. Arroyo is on track. This is huge. It has completely turned around the pitching.

2. Jay Bruce is here. I would imagine that Walt was reading from the same playbook as Krivs on this one... There was something magical about the end of May.

3. Dunn is hitting - Walt is responsible for this how?

4. Hairston?? - Kepp getting hurt brought him into the picture. Walt did this how? Shouldn't Krivs get credit since it was him that picked Hairston up when not 1 person on this board including myself wanted it done.

The bullpen is vastly improved this year (stats might not agree but my eyes do) because of Krivs signings. He was on the right track and I do think he deserves credit for that. I do believe that he would have tried to trade for more help while I am hoping that Walt will at least try the internal options.

NJReds
06-02-2008, 11:57 AM
FWIW, Josh Roenicke made his AAA debut last night and threw a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts. He reportedly hit 98 mph on the radar gun. Hopefully someone like David Weathers is shipped out before long and replaced with Roenicke.

At the very least he could replace Lincoln.