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View Full Version : Is Dusty smarter than Redszone?



He got it!
05-15-2008, 07:57 AM
I am not so much a Dusty apologist as I am just someone who feels that the manager does not play a huge role in baseball and 90% of games won and lost have zero to do with manager moves and everything to do with player execution/performance.

Anyways, I thought it would be fun in hidsight to go back and examine the 2 or 3 decisions a manager makes each night that I would deem a tough a important decision, and compare what Dusty did to what Redszone would have done and look at the end result.

I will be gauging what Redszone would have done by using the game thread, because that is live and anybody can say after the fact that they would have done something different.

Mostly I will be judging the following things....

- Lineup construction
-Leaving a reliever in/ taking him out
- Pinch hitting/ pinch running / double switching

For game 5/14/08....

Lineup construction - I don't know if it is the new rules in the game threads or what but not much was posted on the game thread regarding the lineup last night. There was one poster who thought that Janish should have been in the lineup but that is not enough for me to say that was the consensus for all of Redszone. I would say that we were "OK" with last nights lineup and turned out to be fairly productive so I would call this a wash between Dusty and Redszone. Dusty 0 - Redszone 0

Leaving in pitchers, etc. - Redszone thought Arroyo should have been taken out after 6 innings. Dusty leaves him in for the 7th and he strikes out the side while not racking up a lot more pitches. No brainer. Dusty 1 - Redszone 0

Redszone thougt Dusty should have taken out Lincoln after his 1-2-3 8th and gone with a different reliever not named Cordero. Dusty left Lincoln in there for the ninth. Not so much. Dusty 1 - Redszone 1

Hitting/Pinch running - Dusty and Redszone both did not want to pinch hit in the bottom of the 10th for Janish. I think everyone was in agreement. (except maybe Thom B.) THis obviously worked out well. We'll call it a wash.

Redszone questioned Dusty bringing in Cueto to pinch run in the bottom of the 10th with our prized young pitcher due to fear of a play at the plate. Ther was no play at the plate, Cueto didn't get hurt, and I think it was a neat thrill for the kid to score the winning run. Dusty 2 - Redszone 1

When I get a chance I would like to keep doing these the morning after. It is fun to look back and see who was right and who was wrong. Feel free to add your own ideas that you were yelling for Dusty to do that he did or didn't do. Were you right? Wrong? I find the manager usually knows more than me.

OldRed1966
05-15-2008, 08:08 AM
How about not bunting Griffey in the bottom of the 9th? You've got to put your team in the best position to win the ballgame. I see no reason for not bunting Griffey in that situation.

He got it!
05-15-2008, 08:11 AM
Good point OldRed. edit*
Dusty 2 - Redszone 2 :)

ChatterRed
05-15-2008, 08:45 AM
I didn't make any pregame comments, but here is what I was thinking before the game last night:

1. Janish or Hairston at SS? Hairston has been the hot bat. Chance for a series sweep. Hairston.

2. During the game.........I had no problem with running Arroyo back out in the 7th.......he had a shutout going and I typically agree you leave a guy in to secure his victory unless he has thrown an excessive amount of pitches by that inning or visibly looks fatigued. There can be other factors, such as if it's August and extremely humid/hot, etc.

3. I understand running Lincoln out there to rest your bullpen. I think Mike is a great story, but I have lost confidence in him even before last night. I would have had a quicker hook because Lincoln tends to lose it quickly.

4. I have no problem running your closer out there in the 8th. Cordero has been pretty good in the series and so far this year. Just unfortunate.

5. I was shocked Cueto was the pinch runner considering there could have been a play at the plate.

I was pretty in agreement with Dusty last night.

smoke6
05-15-2008, 08:48 AM
Yes, Dusty is smarter than the RZ. That's why he makes the big bucks.

Orodle
05-15-2008, 08:55 AM
I don't agree with Dusty's lineup nor his swing early in the count philosophy but he did play the game and he is a MLB manager and getting paid a lot of money to do so. So yes I would say hes smarter than redszone. If you ever think your smarter than someone in baseball then that there should tell yourself you don't understand the game.

He got it!
05-15-2008, 09:06 AM
OK, maybe I should have picked a better title for this thread. Obviously I don't think anyone of us here are smarter than an MLB manager. Just a thread to look back and see who made the right call at the end of the game. The manager or the masses.

Moosie52
05-15-2008, 10:10 AM
Dusty may be smarter than the Sun Deck, but smarter than the Old Red Guard? No way.:D

DannyB
05-15-2008, 10:19 AM
How about not bunting Griffey in the bottom of the 9th? You've got to put your team in the best position to win the ballgame. I see no reason for not bunting Griffey in that situation.

A guy with 597 homers would never bunt on my team.

EddieMilner
05-15-2008, 10:23 AM
Dusty may be smarter than the Sun Deck, but smarter than the Old Red Guard? No way.:D

watch out, we can't talk bad about the ORG at the kids table. Some mod will surely shut this thread down now.

K-GAR
05-15-2008, 10:25 AM
you do what you can to win the game, cueto was a much better option than david ross. If you *don't* bring in a better option to score because of fear of a play at the plate.......to quote thom "that's losers thinking". Dusty made the right move bringing in cueto.

Jr. absolutely should've bunted IMO.

I was mixed on arroyo coming back out, but *only* because of hte short rest. however, with Arroyo's pitching style, his arm is gonna be more apt to handle it, so i didn't have a problem with it.

I do wish he would've went with someone other than Cordero since he'd pitched two days in a row, however, that goes back to the cueto situation, you do what you can to win that game and cordero was our best option at the time, right move by dusty.

Also, a lot of people get worked up over the lineup, the more important thing instead of what *slot* someone is in, is where are they in relation to the pitcher and the hitters behind and in front of them. Corey patterson leads off 1 time a game for certain and that's to start the game. After that it's so much more important for the right matchups to be in play and the right people to be protecting

EddieMilner
05-15-2008, 10:28 AM
Also, a lot of people get worked up over the lineup, the more important thing instead of what *slot* someone is in, is where are they in relation to the pitcher and the hitters behind and in front of them. Corey patterson leads off 1 time a game for certain and that's to start the game. After that it's so much more important for the right matchups to be in play and the right people to be protecting

I believe the main issue some people have with Corey Patterson leading off, isn't that he is the first batter of the game, but in that position he will have substantially more at bats over the course of the season than someone more apt at getting on base.

OldRed1966
05-15-2008, 11:41 AM
A guy with 597 homers would never bunt on my team.


Why? Is he too good to bunt? Griffey is only hitting around .240, so therefore he has less than a 24% chance of getting a hit, and even less than that of hitting a homer. Why aren't you going to try and get the winning run in scoring position?

mroby85
05-15-2008, 11:58 AM
Why? Is he too good to bunt? Griffey is only hitting around .240, so therefore he has less than a 24% chance of getting a hit, and even less than that of hitting a homer. Why aren't you going to try and get the winning run in scoring position?

apparently other managers in the league have the same philosophy with griffey, since he hasn't had a sacrifice bunt since 2006. You gotta let your big boys swing the bat imo.

The Boss 23
05-15-2008, 12:14 PM
apparently other managers in the league have the same philosophy with griffey, since he hasn't had a sacrifice bunt since 2006. You gotta let your big boys swing the bat imo.

Agreed. Griffey will find the ball again soon enough and then this won't even be a discussion.

OldRed1966
05-15-2008, 12:14 PM
apparently other managers in the league have the same philosophy with griffey, since he hasn't had a sacrifice bunt since 2006. You gotta let your big boys swing the bat imo.


And that's why the Reds don't win on a consistent basis. Play the game right, be fundamentally sound, and bunt no matter who is up in that situation.

The Boss 23
05-15-2008, 12:17 PM
Teams that win on a consistent basis, play the game right, and are fundamentally sound. and bunt no matter who is up in that situation.

With a .721 OPS for the season and a .890 OPS in the last 7 games, this is not a guy you want to be bunting. While I similarly agree with your style ball, I stand by the previous comment of continuing to let the big boys swing the bats.

HalMorrisRules
05-15-2008, 12:47 PM
The only thing I truly questioned was this: Why do you pinch run for Griffey in the ninth if you aren't going to have Freel take a shot at second base. Maybe the play was on and Freel never felt the advantage was in his favor but you have to take a chance there don't you?

The Boss 23
05-15-2008, 12:58 PM
Idk? It seems rediculous to waste his speed.

Mutaman
05-15-2008, 01:07 PM
The difference between Dusty and Red Zoan is that Dusty doesn't get a chance to second guess himself. Red Zoaners are always right, after the play happens. They ought to change the name of this place to REDBOARD.

"redboard: to speculate on the outcome of a horse race that has already finished"

CWRed
05-15-2008, 01:14 PM
I'm smarter than Dusty every Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. And twice on Monday. :beerme:

The Boss 23
05-15-2008, 01:15 PM
Hahaha!:D

Boston Red
05-15-2008, 01:16 PM
You gotta let your big boys swing the bat imo.

What does that have to do with Griffey in 2008?

levydl
05-15-2008, 01:24 PM
This is results-oriented criticism, which misses the point entirely. If I have 19 in a hand of blackjack and hit, it's a stupid decision even if a 2 happens to come up. You can't divine the future, but you can make the decisions so that the odds are in your favor.

Bunting Griffey is the wrong move in that situation. Just intuitively, you don't want to take the bat out of Griffey's hand, even though he's not been great so far this year. He's your 3 hitter, he's a hall of famer, he already ripped a double earlier - let him hit. And, of course, statistically you have a slightly higher chance of scoring a run with no outs and a guy on 1st than with 1 out and a guy on 2nd. And that assumes that the sacrifice works.

The Boss 23
05-15-2008, 01:39 PM
Exactly :beerme:

He got it!
05-15-2008, 01:43 PM
To answer a previous question, the reason you pinch run with Freel for Griffey without the intention to steal second is so when Phillips hits one in the gap you have a chance to score from first and win the game.

He got it!
05-15-2008, 01:52 PM
Although I have to agree with OldRed on bunting Griffey in the ninth, it appears as if the majority of Redszoners agree with Dusty's decision to let Griffey swing away there making that decision a wash.
edit*
Dusty 2 - Redszone 1

redsfanmia
05-15-2008, 01:57 PM
Dusty makes his living as a manager, we are fans on a forum of course Dusty is smarter than us. Unless you want to go back to the thread where a few ORG members (back when I was in the ORG) said that the only difference between them and General Managers in baseball were opportunities and that they could seriously do their job better than they being professionals do.

mlbfan30
05-15-2008, 02:00 PM
Can anyone explain what they mean by "smart"

Like what does smarter mean?

He got it!
05-15-2008, 02:08 PM
OK, again - I clearly should have titled this thread something else. Consider this the armchair or monday morning quarterback thread where we look at what Dusty did, look at what Redszone wanted to do (per the live game thread) look at the result, and discuss. And because I'm competetive...keep score :)

I clearly do not think me or anyone else on this board could do a better job running the Reds than the people who are paid millions of dollars to do just that.

BurgervilleBuck
05-15-2008, 02:10 PM
I clearly do not think me or anyone else on this board could do a better job running the Reds than the people who are paid millions of dollars to do just that.
I agree. Although, it'd be funny to see some of the folks in the Sun Deck and in the ORG who play manager on here try to manage the team in real life.

HalMorrisRules
05-15-2008, 02:42 PM
To answer a previous question, the reason you pinch run with Freel for Griffey without the intention to steal second is so when Phillips hits one in the gap you have a chance to score from first and win the game.

If that was Dusty's thinking then he wasn't even consistent within the span of two innings. If the switch was made so a gap shot would score Freel , then why did Dusty wait until David Ross got to second to pinch run for him? Considering there were two outs when Ross reached first and only one out when Griffey got to first, the need for a runner to come home on a gap shot would be more pressing with two outs instead of one out. I don't think Freel scoring from first on the gap shot was Dusty's intention in the ninth at all.

Fullboat
05-15-2008, 03:10 PM
Lineup construction - I don't know if it is the new rules in the game threads or what but not much was posted on the game thread regarding the lineup last night. There was one poster who thought that Janish should have been in the lineup but that is not enough for me to say that was the consensus for all of Redszone. I would say that we were "OK" with last nights lineup and turned out to be fairly productive so I would call this a wash between Dusty and Redszone. Dusty 0 - Redszone 0

Dusty didn't have a choice with Janish we were all out of SS. As far as PH late for him

He got it!
05-15-2008, 03:32 PM
Ya. Kind of a no brainer, but it didn't stop Thom B. from bringing it up. He probably didn't realize.

_Sir_Charles_
05-15-2008, 04:03 PM
A guy with 597 homers would never bunt on my team.

He would if he hadn't hit one in a month and has been stuck around .250 most of the season. I don't care WHO'S at the plate, that was a bunting situation without a doubt.

levydl
05-15-2008, 05:43 PM
He would if he hadn't hit one in a month and has been stuck around .250 most of the season. I don't care WHO'S at the plate, that was a bunting situation without a doubt.

Absolutely no freaking way you bunt there. First, Griffey's had like 8 sac bunts in his career (at most). It's not like he's Brett Butler. So there's no guarantee that he'll move the runner over even though you're freely giving up one of the only 3 outs you have left in the game to do so.

But, moreover, you do know that you have a greater chance of scoring a run with a runner on 1st and 0 outs than with a runner on 2nd and 1 out, right? He's our Hall of Fame 3 hole hitter. Taking the bat out of his hands in that situation is just bad baseball. It didn't work out, but it was the right decision (in fact, it really shouldn't even be a decision).

CWRed
05-15-2008, 07:30 PM
Tonight's lineup had Javy playing 1st and batting before Dunn. While Votto and his mammoth success against lefties and Scott Hatteberg (although week against lefties) were going to sit. So yes, I am smarter than Dusty. On Fridays too (see page 2 thread). Because that should never happen. Ever.

Orodle
05-17-2008, 12:40 PM
The difference between Dusty and Red Zoan is that Dusty doesn't get a chance to second guess himself. Red Zoaners are always right, after the play happens. They ought to change the name of this place to REDBOARD.

"redboard: to speculate on the outcome of a horse race that has already finished"

perfectly said