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elfmanvt07
05-15-2008, 03:55 PM
Expected Walt to make a big move by now? I've kinda expected one over the last 4-5 days or so. I got that feeling that a deal was about to go down. I half expect to see that someone's leaving the Queen City by the time I hit 'Submit'.

Homer Bailey
05-15-2008, 03:58 PM
Expected Walt to make a big move by now? I've kinda expected one over the last 4-5 days or so. I got that feeling that a deal was about to go down. I half expect to see that someone's leaving the Queen City by the time I hit 'Submit'.

I've got a guy on the inside, I swear. He says he has the feeling that Wayne is about to do something big. I said "Yeah I expect Bruce to be up real soon." He responded by saying "No, bigger than that." I'm scared...

durl
05-15-2008, 04:07 PM
Offensively, the Reds are virtually identical to last year's highly productive team. Pitching, which cost the Reds SO many losses in 2007, is vastly improved.

The components are in place for this team to be competitive so I believe that big changes aren't necessary. Now that the offense is getting on track (since the Mets series) they're starting to win.

Still, there's always room for improvement...

elfmanvt07
05-15-2008, 04:22 PM
The components are in place for this team to be competitive so I believe that big changes aren't necessary. Now that the offense is getting on track (since the Mets series) they're starting to win.


I'm not saying this team can't win. I just feel that there are a few vet players on the roster that do nothing but contribute to the culture of losing, as it's all they've known since they've been here. If their outlook can turn around, then we can really win a few.

However, I'm afraid that starting with a clean slate completely (i.e., moving Dunner, Griff) would be the easiest, quickest way over .500. Plus, that would free up a great deal of money to extend players who've really come on this year (Bako, etc.).


All this negativity aside, I really do agree with what the TV crew said last night. That kind of win breeds more wins.

durl
05-15-2008, 04:52 PM
However, I'm afraid that starting with a clean slate completely (i.e., moving Dunner, Griff) would be the easiest, quickest way over .500. Plus, that would free up a great deal of money to extend players who've really come on this year (Bako, etc.).

I just have a hard time accepting the notion that 2 of the Reds most consistently productive offensive players are creating a mentality of losing in the clubhouse. They put up good numbers and are well liked by their teammates.

By far, the bulk of the blame for the Reds losing over Griffey and Dunn's tenure with the Reds lies with horrible pitching but that seems to be well on it's way to being corrected.

I thought a new stadium would create a new "winning" energy, but that didn't help. Change for the sake of change doesn't guarantee an improvement. You can change the owner, GM, stadium, uniforms, all of which can be merely symbolic. You have to address the actual problem (pitching) but the Reds failed to do that for years.

elfmanvt07
05-15-2008, 04:59 PM
You have to address the actual problem (pitching) but the Reds failed to do that for years.

And it DOES seem like we're finally getting some pitching, and riding these three games, I'm seeing good things out of the Redlegs, and I'm getting excited about it. The thing is, I can understand how more casual fans would require a big name to really get excited about. The promise of Griffey providing that in 2000 was never realized. They need to put people in the seats.

_Sir_Charles_
05-15-2008, 05:00 PM
I've got a guy on the inside, I swear. He says he has the feeling that Wayne is about to do something big. I said "Yeah I expect Bruce to be up real soon." He responded by saying "No, bigger than that." I'm scared...

Is it just me, or is your "inside guy" a bit out of touch....thinking that "Wayne" is about to do something. You mean like pick up an unemployment check? :O) Just kidding bud.

elfmanvt07
05-15-2008, 05:01 PM
I wasn't going to say anything.

BLEEDS
05-15-2008, 05:33 PM
I've got a guy on the inside, I swear. He says he has the feeling that Wayne is about to do something big. I said "Yeah I expect Bruce to be up real soon." He responded by saying "No, bigger than that." I'm scared...

Too late, if it doesn't happen by today, because - according to my inside guy - the world is ending on Sunday.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
05-15-2008, 05:39 PM
I just have a hard time accepting the notion that 2 of the Reds most consistently productive offensive players are creating a mentality of losing in the clubhouse. They put up good numbers and are well liked by their teammates.

By far, the bulk of the blame for the Reds losing over Griffey and Dunn's tenure with the Reds lies with horrible pitching but that seems to be well on it's way to being corrected.

I thought a new stadium would create a new "winning" energy, but that didn't help. Change for the sake of change doesn't guarantee an improvement. You can change the owner, GM, stadium, uniforms, all of which can be merely symbolic. You have to address the actual problem (pitching) but the Reds failed to do that for years.


I agree that pitching was the Reds main problem over the past 8 years and not Griffey or Dunn. However, the Reds were in the bottom half of the league in offense many of those 8 years as well. Griffey and Dunn did a good job, so I am not blaming them, but an upgrade of offense is needed as well for the Reds to compete. I think that Votto, EE, Phillips are good additions, but the Reds really need that middle of the lineup slugger to really have a strong offense. Dunn and Griffey are no longer that slugger. Bruce may be that guy, who knows?
However, my main reason for wanting to move ahead without Griffey and Dunn is their defense. It is really killing the team. Every ball hit to left or right is a hit. They have no range or ability to get to balls hit in front of them.

Trackman20
05-15-2008, 05:42 PM
How do you figure that Dunn is "no longer that slugger."

He has hit 40+ Homeruns for the last four years and will most likely hit that number again this year. Forget about the strikeouts and the average (he's never had those in his favor).....he is the slugger that every winning team needs.

bgwilly31
05-15-2008, 05:51 PM
Hopefully its trading griffey.

Anybody notice us last night in bottomn of the 9th Get a leadoff walk and then griffey is too BIG to lay down a sacrifice!.!.!

Thats the kinda crap that this team doesnt need.

Along with the other griffey downfalls that ive explained before.

757690
05-15-2008, 06:00 PM
How do you figure that Dunn is "no longer that slugger."

He has hit 40+ Homeruns for the last four years and will most likely hit that number again this year. Forget about the strikeouts and the average (he's never had those in his favor).....he is the slugger that every winning team needs.

Not going to get into an argument about the past, but the key words were "no longer." At his current rate, he will have 24 homers and 50 RBI's this year. All the years he hit 40 he was at around 12-15 homers at this point and around 30-35 RBI's. His walks have been helpful, but that is not what you want out of your slugger, you want a high slugging percentage. Dunn's is .413, which is dreadful for a slugger.

Basically, he is a mistake hitter and nothing else. He can not hit a pitchers pitch, which is what all good sluggers can do. Pitchers realize this and just pitch him more carefully, which results now in more walks, less hits, and less homers. All of his homers have been hit on mistake pitches. The slugger you are talking about that every team needs is one that can take any pitch deep, even a pitchers pitch. Dunn has never been that hitter, and is even less of that this year.

I do like Dunn, he is very productive, but as #2 hitter, as a high OBP guy, not as a slugger, at least not anymore.

Lockdwn11
05-15-2008, 06:59 PM
Hopefully its trading griffey.

Anybody notice us last night in bottomn of the 9th Get a leadoff walk and then griffey is too BIG to lay down a sacrifice!.!.!

Thats the kinda crap that this team doesnt need.

Along with the other griffey downfalls that ive explained before.


No, I can't say that I did but I have seen Griffey lay a few bunts down to the left side just to get his selfish self on. :p:

durl
05-15-2008, 08:51 PM
Over the past 4 seasons combined, Dunn ranks 11th in the majors in RBIs. Only 2 other outfielders have more RBIs than Dunn since the beginning of the 2004 season: Manny Ramirez and Andrew Jones. And only 2 DHers have hit more RBIs over the same span.

We have to face it: Adam Dunn is one of the most productive hitters in the game. I don't believe it's fair to look at 7 weeks in the season and neglect 4 years of production. It's WAY too early to say the guy's lost his eye.

Bruce may be the guy to match Dunn. My question is that, since many think Dunn's production isn't good enough, how many more HR and RBIs do people have to see Bruce hit in order to deem him a good enough player to be on the Reds roster?

Homer Bailey
05-16-2008, 12:21 AM
Is it just me, or is your "inside guy" a bit out of touch....thinking that "Wayne" is about to do something. You mean like pick up an unemployment check? :O) Just kidding bud.

Haha I'm just used to saying Wayne... of course I meant Walt!

goreds2
05-16-2008, 01:02 AM
Too late, if it doesn't happen by today, because - according to my inside guy - the world is ending on Sunday.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Shoot, my inside lady said it will be 2012 due to earth quakes etc. :confused:

757690
05-16-2008, 04:38 AM
Over the past 4 seasons combined, Dunn ranks 11th in the majors in RBIs. Only 2 other outfielders have more RBIs than Dunn since the beginning of the 2004 season: Manny Ramirez and Andrew Jones. And only 2 DHers have hit more RBIs over the same span.

We have to face it: Adam Dunn is one of the most productive hitters in the game. I don't believe it's fair to look at 7 weeks in the season and neglect 4 years of production. It's WAY too early to say the guy's lost his eye.

Bruce may be the guy to match Dunn. My question is that, since many think Dunn's production isn't good enough, how many more HR and RBIs do people have to see Bruce hit in order to deem him a good enough player to be on the Reds roster?

No one, at least not me, is saying that Dunn is not one of the most productive hitters in the league. He is. However, I believe that a championship lineup needs a guy who other pitchers are terrified to pitch to. That guy in the middle of the lineup changes the whole dynamic, changes the way every other is pitched to.

Let's put it this way. When facing the Cards, the mantra is don't let Pujols beat you. All championship teams have that guy. While Dunn is very productive, he is not that guy. He can be pitched to, and he is miserable with two strikes. No one ever says before facing the Reds, "Don't let Dunn beat you,: because they know they can pitch to him.

Dunn produces runs by hitting mistakes for homers, and walking, which is great, but it does not make him a feared hitter, which is what I believe the Reds need. Hopefully Bruce can be that hitter.

BLEEDS
05-16-2008, 08:31 AM
No one, at least not me, is saying that Dunn is not one of the most productive hitters in the league. He is. However, I believe that a championship lineup needs a guy who other pitchers are terrified to pitch to. That guy in the middle of the lineup changes the whole dynamic, changes the way every other is pitched to.

Let's put it this way. When facing the Cards, the mantra is don't let Pujols beat you. All championship teams have that guy. While Dunn is very productive, he is not that guy. He can be pitched to, and he is miserable with two strikes. No one ever says before facing the Reds, "Don't let Dunn beat you,: because they know they can pitch to him.

Dunn produces runs by hitting mistakes for homers, and walking, which is great, but it does not make him a feared hitter, which is what I believe the Reds need. Hopefully Bruce can be that hitter.

Again, Mr. Broken Record, you fail to explain what "feared" means. Feared = they don't want to pitch to him? Well, he consistently is in the ML leaders for walks. But then you say he can get pitched to, and then admit he is in the league leaders in RBI's. Seems that both sides of your argument are moot.

So now you're going to hang on to some obscure stat like "BA w/RISP w/2 strikes", which represents about .05% of his total AB's. It's really meaningless.

If you want to get into a stat debate - or read - I suggest going to the ORG and take a read at this: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68123

You will get all the stat arguments you want, and be presented with facts that say Dunn is one of THE BEST at producing runs/rbi's when it counts. If the only standard you're looking for is Pujols (or ManRam, or Ortiz) then you're going to come up WAY short no matter who you're matching up against them.

I'm sure it will have no affect on your bias, but you can choose to ignore the facts and keep posting your opinions if you'd like, but don't try to treat them as gospel.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

ChatterRed
05-16-2008, 09:30 AM
Griffey is about to be traded. Take it to the bank. :p:

bgwilly31
05-16-2008, 12:55 PM
No, I can't say that I did but I have seen Griffey lay a few bunts down to the left side just to get his selfish self on. :p:

Key word there is a few times.
If Griffey was so unselfish like you say he would do that just about everytime he came up to the plate. Think about that. Eventually the opposing team would have to adjust. And when they did then swing away.

But thanks for trying griffey lover.


Griffey is about to be traded. Take it to the bank. :p:


Oh please say its so!

Ghosts of 1990
05-16-2008, 01:03 PM
I'm worried there is no interest in Griffey around the league.

757690
05-16-2008, 03:26 PM
Again, Mr. Broken Record, you fail to explain what "feared" means. Feared = they don't want to pitch to him? Well, he consistently is in the ML leaders for walks. But then you say he can get pitched to, and then admit he is in the league leaders in RBI's. Seems that both sides of your argument are moot.

So now you're going to hang on to some obscure stat like "BA w/RISP w/2 strikes", which represents about .05% of his total AB's. It's really meaningless.

If you want to get into a stat debate - or read - I suggest going to the ORG and take a read at this: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68123

You will get all the stat arguments you want, and be presented with facts that say Dunn is one of THE BEST at producing runs/rbi's when it counts. If the only standard you're looking for is Pujols (or ManRam, or Ortiz) then you're going to come up WAY short no matter who you're matching up against them.

I'm sure it will have no affect on your bias, but you can choose to ignore the facts and keep posting your opinions if you'd like, but don't try to treat them as gospel.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I have been reading that daily, thanks though.

I also have been PMing a few of the org guys to correct them on mistakes they've made, on both sides of the issue. Lot's of guys think they understand stats when they really don't. (Not that I do, but I am able to spot errors in logic) That thread is a great example of sophistry at its best, again on both sides.

Anyway, read what I wrote, I am not disagreeing with you. Dunn is very productive and the most productive hitter on the Reds. However the Reds need a guy like Manny, A-Rod, Pujols, Holiday, Derek Lee, Berkman etc in order to field a championship team. All championship teams have that guy. You admit that Dunn is not in that category. I have already said that I like Dunn on this team, just not as that main guy in the middle of the lineup. If the Reds could afford to keep him and have someone else be that guy, great. I just see that has doubtful.

Also I have never treated anything I've written as gospel. Read what I wrote, I always preface arguments with "I believe", and never claim that I know I am right. Everything here is opinion, I have always respected that.

BLEEDS
05-16-2008, 05:19 PM
I have never treated anything I've written as gospel. Read what I wrote, I always preface arguments with "I believe", and never claim that I know I am right. Everything here is opinion, I have always respected that.




He can be pitched to, and he is miserable with two strikes. No one ever says before facing the Reds, "Don't let Dunn beat you,: because they know they can pitch to him.

Dunn produces runs by hitting mistakes for homers, and walking, which is great, but it does not make him a feared hitter

Funny, I don't see one "I believe" in any of that.

Sure, we would all love to have a "Manny, A-Rod, Pujols, Holiday, Derek Lee, Berkman etc", but do you realistically think we have a shot at guys like that, let alone afford them, and of course having them WANT to play here?!?!

Yeah, hitting homers - mistake pitches only apparently - and slugging so high doesn't make him feared. How do you explain the walks then? That in and of itself is one big FLAW in your thinking. If he was so NON-feared, why don't they pitch to him every time, and why is he always near the Major League lead for BB every year? It makes absolutely NO sense.

If your only knock on him is that he's not one of the top 5/10 hitters in the game, then I can agree with you, but you're not simply leaving it at that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

shredda2000
05-16-2008, 05:33 PM
Shoot, my inside lady said it will be 2012 due to earth quakes etc. :confused:

Miss Cleo??? :thumbup:

thorn
05-16-2008, 05:45 PM
We all know what kind of hitter Dunn has been in the past, but that doesn't mean it will happen this year, and with Girffey's decline we need that Dunn from the past more than ever. This year is not a good year for Dunn to have an off year, and every player has those years. IMO if Dunn has an off year this year, it will put the Reds in a horrible position. A team won't give up much for a half a season power hitter having an off year which means we will either have to let him walk or give him 16M comming off a bad year, I don't see the positivies either way. Dunn gets a lot of grief from me because of this.

Lockdwn11
05-16-2008, 06:12 PM
Key word there is a few times.
If Griffey was so unselfish like you say he would do that just about everytime he came up to the plate. Think about that. Eventually the opposing team would have to adjust. And when they did then swing away.

But thanks for trying griffey lover.




Oh please say its so!

The same can be said about Dunn or is it just Griffey you choose to hate on?

Lockdwn11
05-16-2008, 06:22 PM
Funny, I don't see one "I believe" in any of that.

Sure, we would all love to have a "Manny, A-Rod, Pujols, Holiday, Derek Lee, Berkman etc", but do you realistically think we have a shot at guys like that, let alone afford them, and of course having them WANT to play here?!?!

Yeah, hitting homers - mistake pitches only apparently - and slugging so high doesn't make him feared. How do you explain the walks then? That in and of itself is one big FLAW in your thinking. If he was so NON-feared, why don't they pitch to him every time, and why is he always near the Major League lead for BB every year? It makes absolutely NO sense.

If your only knock on him is that he's not one of the top 5/10 hitters in the game, then I can agree with you, but you're not simply leaving it at that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

You are right he is NEAR the Major league lead in BB but he is the tops in the Majors in Ks every year and that tells me he is pitched to quite offen. I don't see anyone saying Dunn is not a good player he just isn't 16 million dollars good.

757690
05-16-2008, 06:39 PM
Funny, I don't see one "I believe" in any of that.

Sure, we would all love to have a "Manny, A-Rod, Pujols, Holiday, Derek Lee, Berkman etc", but do you realistically think we have a shot at guys like that, let alone afford them, and of course having them WANT to play here?!?!

Yeah, hitting homers - mistake pitches only apparently - and slugging so high doesn't make him feared. How do you explain the walks then? That in and of itself is one big FLAW in your thinking. If he was so NON-feared, why don't they pitch to him every time, and why is he always near the Major League lead for BB every year? It makes absolutely NO sense.

If your only knock on him is that he's not one of the top 5/10 hitters in the game, then I can agree with you, but you're not simply leaving it at that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

First, whether I include "I believe" everytime, I really can't say that I have ever had a tone of assuming what I say is dogma or gospel. If I ever have, I apologize and will not do it again.



As to your point about the walks he gets. Lot of players get walked a lot that are not feared, at least not the way I have described.

Scott Hatteberg on the Reds is one perfect example.
Kelly Johnson
Rickie Weeks
Keven Youkilis
Jose Reyes
Kevin Millar
Dan Johnson
are others. The history of MLB is littered with hitters who take lots of walks who are not "feared". They do it because they have a great eye and have patience. I believe Dunn falls into that category.

Getting a "feared" hitter was possible for the Reds pretty much my whole life as a Reds fan, with a few isolated years as exceptions. Here are the list of "feared" hitters who have played for the Reds while I have been a fan.

Bench
Perez
Morgan
Foster
Parker
Davis
Mitchell
Gant
Vaughn

I think Bruce can be that hitter, so if so, no need to convince him. However, the Reds got acquired Foster, Parker, Gant, Mitchell and Vaughn. It can be done if it needs to be.

I only sound like a broken record because people keep mis-interpreting what I say. I am going to sound like one again.
I am not saying that Dunn is not one of the top 5 or 10 or 100 hitters in the league. It is not a number issue, it is an attitude issue. I think there are many hitters who I would call one of the top hitters in the league that are not "feared" hitters. I am saying that I don't think that Dunn is ne of the few "feared" hitters in the league. He is very productive, but not what the Reds needs.
I like Dunn, I want him on the Reds, but he is not the big "feared" hitter that the Reds need. And because of that I don't think the Reds should give him a a long term contract, unless it is for a real bargain.

BLEEDS
05-16-2008, 07:18 PM
I can agree with most of that. However, in this day and age, the game has changed, and especially with the haves and have-nots and Free Agency, etc. All of the "feared" Reds guys you listed didn't play in this century, especially the "acquired" ones.

Simply put, we can't afford to "acquire" a feared hitter - at least not an established one, maybe we can get a "slightly afraid of", or more likely a "very well respected" one, and hope they develop into "feared". Problem is, Dunn is "feared", however, his supporting cast to date has been more "please let me pitch to this guy" status, so they can afford to pitch around him - as much as you'd like to say it's because of his patience and good eye. Dunn surely leads the Majors in "unintentional intentional walks" over the last few years.

What good would it do to get us a Manny Ramirez and pay him $25M a year so they could walk him in front of Brandon Phillips so he could hit into double plays all day?

Unfortunately I am beginnig more and more to believe that we are going to be moving Dunn. This ballclub doesn't know how to utilize him to the best of his abilities - they pretty much manage him like the fans do, expecting him to be what he's not, and getting frustrated at the results. They expect him to get better looks in the 7 hole to help him get out of a funk, yet the out-machine/black hole at the top of the lineup continues to get starts at the front of the lineup - even though Dunn would surely still continue to get on base about 100 points higher than CF Patterson if he was batting 2nd or 3rd.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsfanmia
05-16-2008, 07:32 PM
Funny, I don't see one "I believe" in any of that.

Sure, we would all love to have a "Manny, A-Rod, Pujols, Holiday, Derek Lee, Berkman etc", but do you realistically think we have a shot at guys like that, let alone afford them, and of course having them WANT to play here?!?!

Yeah, hitting homers - mistake pitches only apparently - and slugging so high doesn't make him feared. How do you explain the walks then? That in and of itself is one big FLAW in your thinking. If he was so NON-feared, why don't they pitch to him every time, and why is he always near the Major League lead for BB every year? It makes absolutely NO sense.

If your only knock on him is that he's not one of the top 5/10 hitters in the game, then I can agree with you, but you're not simply leaving it at that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

When Dunn is up when the game is on the line in the 9th what do you think? Do you have a good feeling? When Manny or Ortiz is up in the 9th with the game on the line I think the Sox have the game won. When Dunn is up in crunch time I go and get a drink because I know if its tied the game is going to extra's or if the Reds are down I turn it to another channel because the game is over. Thats just how I feel.

OUReds
05-16-2008, 09:08 PM
Getting a "feared" hitter was possible for the Reds pretty much my whole life as a Reds fan, with a few isolated years as exceptions. Here are the list of "feared" hitters who have played for the Reds while I have been a fan.

Bench
Perez
Morgan
Foster
Parker
Davis
Mitchell
Gant
Vaughn

I think Bruce can be that hitter, so if so, no need to convince him. However, the Reds got acquired Foster, Parker, Gant, Mitchell and Vaughn. It can be done if it needs to be.

I only sound like a broken record because people keep mis-interpreting what I say. I am going to sound like one again.
I am not saying that Dunn is not one of the top 5 or 10 or 100 hitters in the league. It is not a number issue, it is an attitude issue. I think there are many hitters who I would call one of the top hitters in the league that are not "feared" hitters. I am saying that I don't think that Dunn is ne of the few "feared" hitters in the league. He is very productive, but not what the Reds needs.
I like Dunn, I want him on the Reds, but he is not the big "feared" hitter that the Reds need. And because of that I don't think the Reds should give him a a long term contract, unless it is for a real bargain.

Good to see your arguments against Dunn have shifted to purely subjective. If you chose to believe that Dunn is not a feared hitter because he lacks the "eye of the tiger", that's completely cool, but from an objective offensive standpoint, he compares favorably to the post-BRM players you listed as "feared".

RC/27

Adam Dunn
2004 8.3
2005 7.8
2006 6.6
2007 7.8
avg 7.6

Parker
1984 4.7
1985 6.3
1986 5.2
1987 4.5
avg 5.2

Davis
1986 8.0
1987 9.5
1988 6.8
1989 6.7
avg 7.8

Mitchell
9.3 in 733 PA in 1993 & 1994
Career 6.6

Gant 7.5 in 493 PA 1995
Career 5.5

Greg Vaughn
1999 6.7
Career 5.6


So why isn't Dunn feared? is it just that he lacks a certain "je nais se quai"? Because I would say that fear and respect is earned through superior performance. Like we see in Dunn.


When Dunn is up when the game is on the line in the 9th what do you think? Do you have a good feeling? When Manny or Ortiz is up in the 9th with the game on the line I think the Sox have the game won. When Dunn is up in crunch time I go and get a drink because I know if its tied the game is going to extra's or if the Reds are down I turn it to another channel because the game is over. Thats just how I feel.

I think about June 30th, 1996
EDIT: LOL 2006. I'm getting old

BLEEDS
05-17-2008, 09:26 PM
Stupid Dunn and his non-clutch hitting the past couple days...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Blue
05-17-2008, 09:38 PM
When Dunn is up when the game is on the line in the 9th what do you think? Do you have a good feeling? When Manny or Ortiz is up in the 9th with the game on the line I think the Sox have the game won. When Dunn is up in crunch time I go and get a drink because I know if its tied the game is going to extra's or if the Reds are down I turn it to another channel because the game is over. Thats just how I feel.

For entrees you may have your choice of your roasted foot or fried crow, and for dessert, a delicious slice of humble pie.

757690
05-17-2008, 10:35 PM
I am very happy to be wrong about Dunn, at least these past few days, and I hope I am wrong all season long.

redsfanmia
05-18-2008, 07:31 AM
For entrees you may have your choice of your roasted foot or fried crow, and for dessert, a delicious slice of humble pie.

Even blind squirrels find nuts.

757690
05-18-2008, 01:24 PM
While I've said that I am happy that Dunn has found his stroke and hope that he can continue for the whole season, I think this past week really proves why the Reds should not resign Dunn to a long term deal.

While this past week makes it clear that when Dunn is hitting the ball well, and by that, I mean not just getting key walks (which do help, but obviously not enough), but by getting key hits as well, the team can contend. However, the first six weeks show that when Dunn is only getting key walks, the team is hopeless. And there lies the rub.

The Reds need a guy who can consistently deliver the goods, who can always be there as a real slugging threat. That is what differentiates Dunn from the guys who can be that key slugger. The others rarely go through long slumps the way Dunn does. Most other sluggers might go through a month long slump once every two years or so, but Dunn seems to have at least one bad month, and most times two, every year.

Last year was one of Dunn's most consistent years, and yet in July his SLG (and that is the key stat for him, since with his walks his OBP and OPS will always be pretty high, and we have seen that when all he does is walk, the Reds don't win) was 100 points off his year's SLG, and his run production was down. In year previous, he was far less consistent, with two months in each year of very low SLG and run production.

Again, I am very happy that he is back on track, but the fact that it took him this long, shows that while being very productive, he is not a guy you want to base your offense on.

And one more note, he did all of this from the 7th slot, which just shows how toothless the argument that he would do better if only he had better protection is.

redsfanmia
05-18-2008, 04:41 PM
I hope he stays hot to drive up or create trade value.

Blue
05-18-2008, 05:35 PM
Even blind squirrels find nuts.

That blind squirrel finds 40 of them every season.

OUReds
05-18-2008, 05:45 PM
However, the first six weeks show that when Dunn is only getting key walks, the team is hopeless.

What? That is way, WAY to simplistic. This implies that the Red's putrid start is to laid almost entirely on Dunn's power slump. Surely you don't believe that.

Although certainly Dunn's power slump has contributed to the poor start, it's only one small part of it. Unlike lesser players, Dunn retains offensive value in a slump by getting on base.

Edit:

Where do you get the idea that most elite power hitters don't slump?

Manny's SLG. in 2007
March/April - .315
August - .407

Berkman's SLG. in 2007
March/April - .337
May - .361

Prince Fielder SLG. 2007
July - .479
March/April 2008 - .446

redsfanmia
05-18-2008, 06:04 PM
That blind squirrel finds 40 of them every season.

And 34 of them are when the Reds are up 8-1 or down 10-1.

OUReds
05-18-2008, 06:09 PM
And 34 of them are when the Reds are up 8-1 or down 10-1.

Or, as I found in one of the other 2000 threads dedicated to bashing our most productive offensive player...


Back on 4/18 I looked it up on baseball-reference.com and found this...

48% of his home runs are in +/- 1 run situations...that goes to 65% when it's +/- 2 runs...only 20% are +/- 4 runs

All credit goes to freestyle55 of course

Blue
05-18-2008, 08:03 PM
And 34 of them are when the Reds are up 8-1 or down 10-1.

No matter how many times this is refuted, you still say it. Completely irrational. You should stop listening to local radio.

redsfanmia
05-18-2008, 08:35 PM
No matter how many times this is refuted, you still say it. Completely irrational. You should stop listening to local radio.

Dunn drives me absolutely insane, ok there I said it. I wanted him to be so great and yet year after year he disappoints me, he is what he is he and its just not enough for me. I know its irrational but I just cant wait until he is gone after this season.

Blue
05-18-2008, 09:40 PM
Dunn drives me absolutely insane, ok there I said it. I wanted him to be so great and yet year after year he disappoints me, he is what he is he and its just not enough for me. I know its irrational but I just cant wait until he is gone after this season.

For your sake, I hope Dunn and the Reds part ways. For the sake of the franchise, I hope he's around 'til he decides to retire.

757690
05-19-2008, 12:03 AM
Where do you get the idea that most elite power hitters don't slump?

Manny's SLG. in 2007
March/April - .315
August - .407

Berkman's SLG. in 2007
March/April - .337
May - .361

Prince Fielder SLG. 2007
July - .479
March/April 2008 - .446

This is what I said.


The others rarely go through long slumps the way Dunn does. Most other sluggers might go through a month long slump once every two years or so

You found two examples (I don't think Fielder is in that class yet.) of sluggers slumping for more than a month. Doesn't contradict what I said.

Look at those two players (or any other sluggers) numbers every year over their entire career month by month, then do the same for Dunn. Here is what Dunn did:



Yr: Mth SLG
02 Aug .283
02 Sep .274
03 Jun .423
03 Jul .414
03 Aug .268
04 May .372
04 Sep .482
05 May .495
05 Aug .411
05 Sep .462
06 Aug .416
06 Sep .264
07 Apr .511
07 Jul .455

I will admit he was more consistent last year, but the first six weeks of this year made up for it.

That is 15 slumping months out 37 months (counting this year) he was active. I have not done the research, but I doubt that there was any other slugger who has anywhere near that ratio.

OUReds
05-19-2008, 08:44 AM
Most other sluggers might go through a month long slump once every two years or so

That's what I was responding to. Those three were the first I looked up, all had more then one slumping month in a year or so (well, I looked up Ortiz also. He's a monster!) If you do the research, I think you would find more uneveness then you think.

I am encouraged that you are now simply nitpicking though! I'm not saying that Dunn isn't a streaky player. He certainly is the kind of player that "carries a team when he gets hot". See, I can spin also! As I've mentioned before of course, Dunn retains offensive value through power slumps by continuing to get on base.

It's ok to have an irrational dislike for a player. Herm Winningham once gave me the evil eye when I was sitting in the red seats in Riverfront. Never did like him after that. Like Redsfanmia, the first step is admitting that your dislike is not based on anything logical.

BLEEDS
05-20-2008, 11:48 AM
Dunn drives me absolutely insane, ok there I said it. I wanted him to be so great and yet year after year he disappoints me, he is what he is he and its just not enough for me. I know its irrational but I just cant wait until he is gone after this season.

It's only because you watch his every at-bat, where he fails AT LEAST 60% of the time to get on base - as does Manny Ramirez, Ortiz, Pujols, ARod, etc... you would be dogging them too.

It's okay to be irrational, just don't try to make up stats to back up your "feelings"...

PEACE

-BLEEDS