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corkedbat
05-15-2008, 08:51 PM
When Josh Hamilton was dealt for Volquez durimg the offseason, I figured another extension for Dunn was a foregone conclusion, but now it looks like a pipedream.

It would be surprising if either AD or Junior were still a Red a month from now. When we've talked of trades in the past, it was natural to expect that pitching would be the emphasis, but this time it seems apparent that offense needs to be the target (and it's probably a good time to shore up the D too).

I'd love to see them add a couple of OFs, a SS and a C who are solid defensively as well as offensively, but AD & Junior's status mean they'll be lucky to get two of those. There's Hatteburg, Freel, Ross, Fogg, two or three relievers and some decent farmhands to sweeten the pot or move in seperate deals.

What kind of retrun do you think we can look for if both AD & KGJ are dealt?

Also, Bronson has put together strong starts in three of his last four outings, is he reclaiming his spot as a solid number two or is it just a great time to get out from under his contract and add more young talent?

No game tonight, so I thought I'd see if I could get a little discussion going. I love bruce, Votto and Encarnacion, but I'm really worried about where the offense is going to come from. I think they have to add at least one more solid offensive weapon if both corner OFs really go.

AmarilloRed
05-15-2008, 09:03 PM
Jocketty has said there have been no trade talks involving Griffey, and that he is interested in having Griffey stay the entire year. I think the Reds will let Griffey finish out the year, and buy him out at the end of the year. They may be bowled over by a really good trade offer from Seattle, but I don't see it happening yet.. I really thought after Castellini talked about having Dunn stay that the Reds would be interested in giving him a LTC and Adam has shown some indication he would like to stay in Cincinnati; now I just don't know. The Reds may simply be waiting for Adam to increase his value by playing well before they make an attempt in trading him; I have doubts they are still interested in offering him an LTC.

corkedbat
05-15-2008, 09:10 PM
Jocketty has said there have been no trade talks involving Griffey, and that he is interested in having Griffey stay the entire year. I think the Reds will let Griffey finish out the year, and buy him out at the end of the year. They may be bowled over by a really good trade offer from Seattle, but I don't see it happening yet.. I really thought after Castellini talked about having Dunn stay that the Reds would be interested in giving him a LTC and Adam has shown some indication he would like to stay in Cincinnati; now I just don't know. The Reds may simply be waiting for Adam to increase his value by playing well before they make an attempt in trading him; I have doubts they are still interested in offering him an LTC.


I hate to say it, but I think it's unfortunate if they do hold on to Griffey for the remainder of the season. It's painful to watch him paly defense, his offense is stagnant and if he is here at the end of the seasom, his buyout is a waste of $4M.

I'd like to get one useable body for him, but the return is not really that important. I'd love to see Junior go some place where he can DH at least now and then and maybe earn a ring. Bruce needs to be in RF, taking his lumps if need be.

AtomicDumpling
05-15-2008, 09:22 PM
I agree that trading Hamilton didn't make much sense unless the Reds were planning to sign Dunn to another contract. Bruce is destined to be Griffey's replacement, so the Reds do not have a decent replacement for Dunn.

I still think the Reds will keep Dunn for several more years. They will keep listening to offers just in case somebody bowls them over with a great deal, which could happen.

If the Reds are serious about trading Dunn in exchange for true prospects it would make sense to sign him to a long or mid-term contract first. Dunn would have more trade value if teams knew they would have him locked up for $XX per year. Right now he is a short term rent-a-player with trade veto power and is also destined to receive a very large contract. That type of player is hard to trade, especially if you are expecting top prospects in return.

I hope Adam Dunn remains a Red for his whole career so we can watch him break lots of records. Without Dunn and Griffey the Reds have nobody that is identifiable to casual Reds fans.

I expect Griffey to be traded to Seattle, Detroit or the Yankees pretty soon. The Reds will have to send some money to his new team along with Griffey if they hope to receive any good prospects in return.

redsmetz
05-15-2008, 09:40 PM
I don't think it's a given that not having signed Dunn yet means it can't happen. I don't get the sense of there being any acrimony over no talks presently taking place. They may still move him, but I don't see this is urgently pressing.

GAC
05-15-2008, 10:05 PM
I hate to say it, but I think it's unfortunate if they do hold on to Griffey for the remainder of the season. It's painful to watch him paly defense, his offense is stagnant and if he is here at the end of the seasom, his buyout is a waste of $4M.

It's not a waste as much as it's a contractual stipulation. There's nothing the Reds can do about it. But it's much more "palatable" then the 16.5 mil we are obligated to pay him for next season if we retained him. ;)

What you mention above concerning Jr's performance other teams also see. That's why no one, other then an "inquiring" Seattle, is asking about this guy.

Would any of us love to be able to cut ties with this guy RIGHT NOW? Most would. But Jr is in the driver's seat. Unless the skies open up, and a miracle somehow appears, he will be here till season's end, and it's just "wishful thinking".

Respectfully - we just need to live with those facts.

corkedbat
05-15-2008, 10:27 PM
It's not a waste as much as it's a contractual stipulation. There's nothing the Reds can do about it. But it's much more "palatable" then the 16.5 mil we are obligated to pay him for next season if we retained him. ;)

What you mention above concerning Jr's performance other teams also see. That's why no one, other then an "inquiring" Seattle, is asking about this guy.

Would any of us love to be able to cut ties with this guy RIGHT NOW? Most would. But Jr is in the driver's seat. Unless the skies open up, and a miracle somehow appears, he will be here till season's end, and it's just "wishful thinking".

Respectfully - we just need to live with those facts.


I only meant that it was a wate if they have a chance to move him and don't take advantage of it. If no one else wants him (quite possible), then yes, it is just a contractual obligation.

RedEye
05-15-2008, 11:30 PM
I think it makes sense to wait with Dunn. Wait until June 15th or so. That's when the Reds can really start fielding offers and seeing what he's worth. If at that point they decide that they are "bowled over" by an offer, then they can deal him. If there is no such deal, I suppose they will then wait for awhile longer. He's arguably the best bat available for mid-season pickup this year. If they are still not getting decent offers, they then need to make the decision about whether to consider a LTC or letting him walk for draft picks.

In any case, it's not urgent. Not yet.

Will M
05-15-2008, 11:40 PM
I think it makes sense to wait with Dunn. Wait until June 15th or so. That's when the Reds can really start fielding offers and seeing what he's worth. If at that point they decide that they are "bowled over" by an offer, then they can deal him. If there is no such deal, I suppose they will then wait for awhile longer. He's arguably the best bat available for mid-season pickup this year. If they are still not getting decent offers, they then need to make the decision about whether to consider a LTC or letting him walk for draft picks.

In any case, it's not urgent. Not yet.

That makes logical sense. Deal Jr if we can then replace him with Bruce but wait a while on Dunn. When I look at Dunn I see a player whose production could drop off real fast. Shades of Mo Vaughn. What I would hate to see the Reds do is give him a very long term deal then regret it by the 2nd year.

REDREAD
05-16-2008, 02:26 PM
Would any of us love to be able to cut ties with this guy RIGHT NOW? Most would. But Jr is in the driver's seat. Unless the skies open up, and a miracle somehow appears, he will be here till season's end, and it's just "wishful thinking".

Respectfully - we just need to live with those facts.

Yep, I can't see Jr approving a trade as a rental player and going through all the hassle of moving when he doesn't have to. The only exception I could see would be if a heavily favored contender wanted him.. but I just don't see that happening..

Dunn is a harder call. Maybe there's a team (Houston or whatever) that would deal for him and then sign him. Problem is that Dunn's cold start makes it somewhat risky to do that. I think Dunn will come around. I'd still like to see the Reds resign Dunn, but with each day I feel less likely it will happen.

corkedbat
05-16-2008, 02:46 PM
Yep, I can't see Jr approving a trade as a rental player and going through all the hassle of moving when he doesn't have to. The only exception I could see would be if a heavily favored contender wanted him.. but I just don't see that happening..

Dunn is a harder call. Maybe there's a team (Houston or whatever) that would deal for him and then sign him. Problem is that Dunn's cold start makes it somewhat risky to do that. I think Dunn will come around. I'd still like to see the Reds resign Dunn, but with each day I feel less likely it will happen.

I'm for keeping Dunn too, I just think the complete lack of noise on the subject from the FO makes me think it's not gonna happen though. I hope I'm just reading it wrong, but I think that we'd he Cast making more noise about trying to keep AD if it were gonna happen.

If they do re-up him though I hope it's no more that 2 or three years with a team option and they avoid the no-trade clauses that always put them in a bind.

red-in-la
05-16-2008, 03:00 PM
I hate to see JR turn from hero to goat.....it is a sad thing, but he is the new Barry Larkin. It is also sad when a great athlete cannot see or admit to himself that he can no longer play the game and is hurting his team. But JR is a rather large determent now.

He cannot play RF anymore and he cannot hit anymore......and he hasn't been able to run or throw for years. So what tool is left. Guile is great when you are a pitcher, but I don't think it helps position players much.

JR doesn't need to be gone if that is what he and Jocketty want, but he sure as heck cannot play the game anymore. If he wants to PH when the Reds are down 8 runs, fine, but he should never again be put in a position to win or lose a game.

The best TEAM that we are supposed to see for our money has Jay Bruce in RF and JR at the far end of the bench. Let JR mentor Bruce or something, but I am soooo sick of the "race to 600 commercials" I can't stand it. Stats are supposed to be a result of the game, not the purpose for it.

GAC
05-18-2008, 06:38 AM
What is interesting is that there is a high probability that none of the starting OF (Dunn, Patterson, Griffey) in yesterday's game will be here going into next season. And isn't that kind of a rare occurrence to not have any of your current starting OF with a team the next year? I don't know.

So speaking hypothetically that this is Jocketty's position, then "What's next?". What is going to be his approach to address this situation going into the '09 season other then a Jay Bruce?

From what I've read on Walt, this is his forte - being able to go into the market, sign a top flight FA to fill a dire need (like a Rolen, etc).

Trading for it is not an impossibility; but when I look at what trading chips we have, they are primarily in an area (pitching) that we can't afford to divest ourselves of. IMO, we're creating a hole(s) to try and fill a hole.

So maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like a FA signing is the best approach. Especially with the possibility of large amounts of payroll being freed up after this season.

And I'm still not sold on Bruce in CF. I still say he is best suited for RF.

But if that is their approach, then shouldn't they have this kid up here this year to get somewhat acclimated, rather then just ceding the job to him going into next season?

And is it out of the realm of possibility - especially with Baker's love for the guy - that they retain Patterson in CF for '09 if no other sound alternatives within the market present themselves if they are letting Jr and Dunn walk?

Frightening isn't it? ;)

The guy is a plus defensive fielder that is for sure. But his bat is simply atrocious. He's at best, IMHO, a role player off the bench.

And if Castellini/Jocketty are really serious about taking this team to the next level - while letting a guy like Dunn walk (Jr we all agree should be gone) - then they better come forth with better alternatives then depending on role players like Freel, Hopper, Hairston, and Patterson to get it done consistently for you.

RedsBaron
05-18-2008, 08:29 AM
What is interesting is that there is a high probability that none of the starting OF (Dunn, Patterson, Griffey) in yesterday's game will be here going into next season. And isn't that kind of a rare occurrence to not have any of your current starting OF with a team the next year?

The reds completely turned over their outfield after the 1981 season. In 1981 the Reds primary outfielders were George Foster, Ken Griffey and Dave Collins. In 1982 the Reds had an outfield of Cesar Cedeno, Eddie Milner and Paul Householder. The Reds alos went from having the best record in MLB in 1981 to a 101 loss season in 1982.

Spring~Fields
05-18-2008, 08:52 AM
What is interesting is that there is a high probability that none of the starting OF (Dunn, Patterson, Griffey) in yesterday's game will be here going into next season. And isn't that kind of a rare occurrence to not have any of your current starting OF with a team the next year? I don't know.

I believe that Baker will request that Patterson be back with next years team, unless Jocketty over rules him and has a better alternative. Of course I am all for letting Patterson and a group of many walk, around June 1st, I think that we have seen why the guy was unemployed at the start of this season. Baker will want a centerfielder who can lead off.


But if that is their approach, then shouldn't they have this kid up here this year to get somewhat acclimated, rather then just ceding the job to him going into next season?

Unless you want a very young rookie trying to break in at the major league level next spring, which was Bruce’s situation this past spring, it would be better if Bruce received significant playing time, especially if you feel that Griffey, Dunn, and Patterson might not be back next year. I certainly wouldn’t want Baker to be uncomfortable with him because he is young and hasn’t played above AAA. A team could end up with choices at the level of a Hairston, Bako or Patterson.

If this team is not going to win the division or gain a wild card (past seasons team stats seem to indicate that they won’t) it would benefit them to get Bruce major league experience in preparation for next year. Otherwise I think that Jocketty will use Bruce for a trading chip because other than some pitching prospects Jocketty doesn’t have much to work with. Surely he wouldn’t trade a Harang, Volquez, Cordero, Cueto or Phillips so what else does he have that another major league team would be strongly motivated to acquire?

Spring~Fields
05-18-2008, 09:04 AM
And I'm still not sold on Bruce in CF. I still say he is best suited for RF.


I am not sure how you come to this conclusion, what do you base your opinion on that Bruce is best suited for right field?

I have seen some old scouting remarks in some writers articles indicating that Bruce projects better as a right fielder but other than that I havenít seen any objective evidence since he can and does play all three outfield positions.

GAC
05-18-2008, 09:07 AM
Baker will want a centerfielder who can lead off.

Looking at the # of ABs he's giving Patterson, Baker thinks he has one now. ;)


Otherwise I think that Jocketty will use Bruce for a trading chip because other than some pitching prospects Jocketty doesnít have much to work with.

That better not happen. We already are facing holes in this OF, so we trade away one of the top OF prospects in all of MLB? And "For what?" would be my next question.


Surely he wouldnít trade a Harang, Volquez, Cordero, Cueto or Phillips so what else does he have that another major league team would be strongly motivated to acquire?

Jocketty's "strength" this upcoming off-season may be more in clearing out huge amounts of payroll so he can shop the FA market and not trade what valuable chips he posesses.

GAC
05-18-2008, 09:15 AM
I am not sure how you come to this conclusion, what do you base your opinion on that Bruce is best suited for right field?

I have seen some old scouting remarks in some writers articles indicating that Bruce projects better as a right fielder but other than that I havenít seen any objective evidence since he can and does play all three outfield positions.

He has some speed, and can hold his own in CF; but most scouting reports I have read say he profiles as an elite right-fielder who'll hit for average and power while stopping runners from taking the extra base with his arm.

I'm not saying that he can't play CF; but only that a corner spot would be most optimum for him according to what I have read.

Spring~Fields
05-18-2008, 09:35 AM
He has some speed, and can hold his own in CF; but most scouting reports I have read say he profiles as an elite right-fielder who'll hit for average and power while stopping runners from taking the extra base with his arm.

I'm not saying that he can't play CF; but only that a corner spot would be most optimum for him according to what I have read.

Yes, I think that we have all read those.

I would like to see in real time what the truth is about the young guy, certainly if he could not cut it in center, or better yet, if Jocketty came up with a better option than Baker does, Bruce could play the corners adequately. As it is right now it is really tough for me to see that Freel, Hopper, Patterson, Hairston or Griffey are the superior players over Bruce, especially on a team that has an owner who has been reported as being impatient and wanting to win now, and has said that the losing was going to stop or some spin doctoring to that effect.

Seems to me that the questions regarding Bruce need to find some answers at the major league level before next spring training and before Jocketty has to make some major decisions on Dunn and Griffey or in making trades or contracting a FA during the winter months, Jocketty doesn't seem to know what he really has in Bruce one way or another right now.

Spring~Fields
05-18-2008, 09:54 AM
Looking at the # of ABs he's giving Patterson, Baker thinks he has one now. ;) I can't argue that, of course I wouldn't want to as there are some advantages to giving a manager like Baker enough time to show his cards. ;)


That better not happen. We already are facing holes in this OF, so we trade away one of the top OF prospects in all of MLB? And "For what?" would be my next question.

Jocketty's "strength" this upcoming off-season may be more in clearing out huge amounts of payroll so he can shop the FA market and not trade what valuable chips he posesses.

That also has been reported as being one of Jocketty's strengths, that of trading away prospects along with trades and playing the FA market to improve his past teams.

Though I love to guess and speculate as most baseball fans, I would not presume to know what he might try to trade for or what, as that is his expertise and he has the inside information that we do not. Naturally I would like for him to find improved offensive and defensive upgrades for the outfield, short stop, catcher and bench, along with upgrading the bullpen, that is a pretty tall drink though.

I don't think that Cincinnati has the equal to or greater than financial support from their market area as a St. Louis does or had that Jocketty enjoyed there, so he might find the Reds to be more constraining and have to make some unpopular moves, but that is what he was brought in for to make trusted moves that will move the Reds team toward being a winning organization on the field.

Of course he could risk the FA market that can bring a Griffey/Milton injury type risk that comes with any players and long term contracts with very high dollar commitments.

Do you think that Griffey or a Dunn has any trade value that could bring back some high quality players that would fill a need along with freeing up money?

GAC
05-18-2008, 11:44 AM
Do you think that Griffey or a Dunn has any trade value that could bring back some high quality players that would fill a need along with freeing up money?

Griffey? Absolutely none.

Dunn? It depends if the team interested in him can negotiate a long term deal with him. They aren't going to give up top prospects for a guy who will then walk at season's end. Yes, it has happened in the past before, and probably has helped team's in their post-season push that year.

But overall, I don't see smart organizations doing such a thing anymore, unless they are a team that can afford to do so.

mth123
05-18-2008, 12:46 PM
The Winning Streak has this team in striking distance of .500 and an owner in Win Now mode. Luckily significant moves can be made without sacraficing the future.

1. Deal Griffey for whatever and Salary Relief (or make him LHPH and Deal Hatte).
2. Make Bruce everyday RF.
3. Sign Freddy Garcia for a low dollar 2008 deal with a larger guarantee for 2009.
4. Cut Javy and bring up Andy Phillips.

If Hatte goes instead of Griffey the team would have a LHPH and a RHPH in Griffey and Phillips, neither of whom is limited to strictly 1B though Griffey should avoid any defensive play at this point. Overall improved defense, hitting, speed and the defensive effect will give a huge boost to the pitching. Adding Garcia upgrades the back of the Rotation and staves off an impulse move with Bailey or Thompson and makes Belisle/Fogg expendable.

In Late JUne Garcia and Keppinger will be back and contributing:

Line-up Against RH/LH

Kepp SS (Harston for now)/Freel CF
Dunn LF/Kepp SS
Bruce RF/B. Phillips 2B
EdE 3B
Votto 1B/Dunn LF
B. Phillips 2B/A. Phillips 1B
Patterson CF/Bruce RF
Bako/Ross C
Pitcher

Other Bench Players

Griffey/Hatte LHPH
Hairston/Janish IF (based on defesne offense needs)

Rotation
Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Garcia
Cueto

Pen
Cordero (CL)
Weathers (RHSU)
Affeldt (LHSU)
Bray (LH Mid)
Lincoln or a call-up (RH-Mid)
Burton (RH Mid)
Fogg/Belisle (Long)