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View Full Version : Pick Em 7 - First Year Player Draft, 2008



cincyinco
05-15-2008, 11:08 PM
Well, the draft is getting ever closer. And the buzz is picking up regarding the 2008 first year player draft. The Cincinnati Reds have the 7th overall pick. So, here's a little game we can play. Pick em 7!

Your job is to attempt to predict the first 7 selection of the 2008 first year player draft, ending on the Cincinnati Reds draft selection. Try to predict the actual order of the first 7 selections. We'll see who has the best guess.

Oh, feel free to update your post as the draft approaches, just make sure to do so in a new post, as the draft is dynamic and changes as we get closer to the big day - case in point - Scheppers.

Here is the draft order and my opening guess:

1. Rays - Buster Posey - C
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - 3B
3. Royals - Tim Beckham - SS
4. Orioles - Justin Smoak - 1B
5. Giants - Eric Hosmer - 1B
6. Marlins - Brian Matusz - LHP
7. Reds - Gordan Beckham - SS

Thats how I see things right now. Post your 7! Its pick em 7!

redhawk61
05-15-2008, 11:15 PM
1. Rays - Tim Beckham - SS
2. Pirates - Buster Posey - C
3. Royals - Brian Matusz - LHP
4. Orioles - Pedro Alvarez - 3B
5. Giants - Justin Smoak - 1B
6. Marlins -Eric Hosmer - 1B
7. Reds - Gordan Beckham - SS

Note: If Matusz falls past 3 I have a feeling he falls to us.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 11:19 PM
1. Rays - Buster Posey, C
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B
3. Royals - Tim Beckham, SS
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP
5. Giants - Justin Smoak, 1B
6. Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C
7. Reds - Gordon Beckham, SS

cincyinco
05-15-2008, 11:23 PM
Interesting to see now Crowe in the top 7 so far.

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2008, 11:28 PM
Interesting to see now Crowe in the top 7 so far.

I think teams will be a little wary of Crow's mechanics and he'll drop some in the same manner as Tim Lincecum. But I would be pretty excited if we could land him.

redhawk61
05-15-2008, 11:40 PM
Crow scares me

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/AaronCrow.html

cincyinco
05-16-2008, 06:19 PM
Anyone want to take another stab at it now that baseball america has produced its mock draft? Another source of info to educate your guess with.

its a free link btw
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266117.html

My guess after taking some things into consideration hasn't changed too much, but my projection of 1B going back to back looks funky, so here is my revised pick em 7!

1. Rays - Buster Posey - C
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - 3B
3. Royals - Tim Beckham - SS
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz - LHP
5. Giants - Justin Smoak - 1B
6. Marlins - Aaron Crow - RHP
7. Reds - Gordan Beckham - SS

Degenerate39
05-16-2008, 07:18 PM
Anyone want to take another stab at it now that baseball america has produced its mock draft? Another source of info to educate your guess with.

its a free link btw
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266117.html

My guess after taking some things into consideration hasn't changed too much, but my projection of 1B going back to back looks funky, so here is my revised pick em 7!

1. Rays - Buster Posey - C
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - 3B
3. Royals - Tim Beckham - SS
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz - LHP
5. Giants - Justin Smoak - 1B
6. Marlins - Aaron Crow - RHP
7. Reds - Gordan Beckham - SS

I'm thinking this is pretty much how it's going to look but I wouldn't do it if the Reds took a pitcher.

WebScorpion
05-23-2008, 04:18 PM
May as well play along.

1. Rays - Tim Beckham - SS
2. Pirates - Gordon Beckham - SS
3. Royals - Brian Matusz - LHP
4. Orioles - Aaron Crow - RHP
5. Giants - Buster Posey - C
6. Marlins - Kyle Skipworth - C
7. Reds - Pedro Alvarez - 3B

Who knows, if more teams go with pitching we might even see Posey fall all the way to us,but I doubt it. The Giants may rather have Smoak or Alvarez, but I just don't see the Pirates going with another catcher or pitcher...the most polished SS is their guy, but it could also be Alvarez. My favorites for the Reds would be Matusz, Posey, and/or G. Beckham, but I think they'll all be gone by the time we get up.

lollipopcurve
05-23-2008, 04:47 PM
Crow scares me

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/...AaronCrow.html

Interesting. Thanks for posting. I have to agree that Crow's arm action is worrisome.

Pitchers are always riskier than position players.

cincyinco
05-23-2008, 05:10 PM
Thanks for playing guys! Keep it coming, i know we have more draft buffs on here. Even if you're not.. throw your guess. C'mon! I'm lookin at you in particular Doug.

Here is my latest guess going off articles I've been reading:

1. Rays - Tim Beckham - SS
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - 3B
3. Royals - Aaron Crow - RHP
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz - LHP
5. Giants - Justin Smoak - 1B
6. Marlins - Kyle Skipworth - C - reports have Marlins heavily interested.
7. Reds - Gordan Beckham - SS

I really think if Crow goes before us, Beckham is our man. Posey is also a choice. I think he could potentially fall if he's not taken by the Rays. He's a possibility at 5, from what I've read - which would make Smoak another choice for the Reds to consider at 7.

To be honest, I'm really not as certain in this prediction as my previous ones. My previous orders felt solid. As draft approaches, its going to get real interesting.

lollipopcurve
05-23-2008, 05:19 PM
As these 2 weeks wind down, the rumors will increase to the point that close to the draft the very first few selections may be all but known. So it's more fun to guess now....

1. Rays -- Alvarez
2. Buccos -- Smoak (going out on a limb here)
3. KC -- T. Beckham
4. Balt -- G. Beckham
5. SF -- Posey
6. FLA -- Hosmer
7. Reds -- Matusz

RedsManRick
05-23-2008, 06:07 PM
I don't feel comfortable enough to pick, but I think that if Crow is there, he's a Red. Put me squarely in the group who would rather take a bat in the first round unless there's a flawless arm just sitting there.

A guy like Crow strikes me a siren song. Though I'd like to learn more about his mechanics. I know many felt the same way about Lincecum, but upon in depth analysis, his mechanics are quite sound -- just unusual.

dougdirt
05-23-2008, 06:09 PM
I don't feel comfortable enough to pick, but I think that if Crow is there, he's a Red. Put me squarely in the group who would rather take a bat in the first round unless there's a flawless arm just sitting there.

A guy like Crow strikes me a siren song. Though I'd like to learn more about his mechanics. I know many felt the same way about Lincecum, but upon in depth analysis, his mechanics are quite sound -- just unusual.
Except Lincecums mechanics were just that, unsual. Crow's are bad.

Hoosier Red
05-23-2008, 06:13 PM
Are Tim and Gordon related?

OnBaseMachine
05-23-2008, 06:16 PM
Are Tim and Gordon related?

No.

cincyinco
05-23-2008, 07:39 PM
I don't feel comfortable enough to pick, but I think that if Crow is there, he's a Red. Put me squarely in the group who would rather take a bat in the first round unless there's a flawless arm just sitting there.

A guy like Crow strikes me a siren song. Though I'd like to learn more about his mechanics. I know many felt the same way about Lincecum, but upon in depth analysis, his mechanics are quite sound -- just unusual.

Ah, c'mon RMR, go out on a limb. I plainly said in post 1 you could change your order as you see fit. The draft is dynamic, and so your picks should be the same. its more than fair to change them, this far out still :)

cincyinco
06-04-2008, 03:28 PM
Okay, I admit I slacked on keeping this at the forefront.. so participation has been sparse. But with draft day on the horizon, and draft talk heating up, lets see if we all can't get our picks in, 1 day out from the draft.

1. Rays - Buster Posey - C
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - 3B
3. Royals - Eric Hosmer - 1B
4. Orioles - Tim Beckham - SS
5. Giants - Justin Smoak - 1B
6. Marlins - Brian Matusz - LHP
7. Reds - Gordan Beckham - SS

Hard one to rank, due to the volatility or the top talents and rumors swirling about what teams might do. But, I'd say thats pretty solid.

There is an outside chance the Marlins go with Skipworth, which would make the choice between Matusz and Beckham a tough one. I really don't buy the Lawrie rumors right now.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-04-2008, 04:30 PM
1. Rays - Tim Beckham - SS
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - 3B
3. Royals - Buster Posey - C
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz - LHP
5. Giants - Justin Smoak - 1B
6. Marlins - Eric Hosmer - 1B
7. Reds - Aaron Crow RHP

Kc61
06-04-2008, 04:38 PM
Rays -- Posey (Advanced catchers like this too rare to pass up)
Pirates -- Alvarez (Injury may affect contract, but Bucs seem wedded)
Royals -- T. Beckham (One of the top three guys, can't pass up)
Orioles -- Matusz or Smoak. Key pick for Reds. (I say Matusz, to replace Bedard)
Giants -- Hosmer (Can afford Boras guy, tremendous ability; or Smoak)
Marlins -- Crow (Need to stress pitching and d; will take Matusz if O's pass on him)
Reds -- Yonder Alonso (Walt looking for next Pujois; Matusz if available)

lollipopcurve
06-04-2008, 04:41 PM
So it's more fun to guess now....

1. Rays -- Alvarez
2. Buccos -- Smoak (going out on a limb here)
3. KC -- T. Beckham
4. Balt -- G. Beckham
5. SF -- Posey
6. FLA -- Hosmer
7. Reds -- Matusz

Well, I appear to have been wrong in the top selections....revised guess, based on the usual sources...

1. TB -- Posey (I think the GM overrules the scouting department -- a very poor move politically, I'd say, especially in an organization that has drafted very well at the top)

2. PITT -- Alvarez

3. KC -- Hosmer

4. Balt -- T. Beckham

5. SF -- Smoak

6. FLA -- Alonso, their home boy

7. Reds -- Matusz (just like I said before)

cincyinco
06-04-2008, 05:18 PM
Rays -- Posey (Advanced catchers like this too rare to pass up)
Pirates -- Alvarez (Injury may affect contract, but Bucs seem wedded)
Royals -- T. Beckham (One of the top three guys, can't pass up)
Orioles -- Matusz or Smoak. Key pick for Reds. (I say Matusz, to replace Bedard)
Giants -- Hosmer (Can afford Boras guy, tremendous ability; or Smoak)
Marlins -- Crow (Need to stress pitching and d; will take Matusz if O's pass on him)
Reds -- Yonder Alonso (Walt looking for next Pujois; Matusz if available)

KC has been linked to nothing but Hosmer from everything I've read, so interesting scenario. I also think there is a shot we could land Alonso, so I like you going out on that limb. I'm not sure the Giants get the shot at Hosmer, or if they'd want too - I think they're looking for someone to make a more immediete impact like Lincecum.

Thanks for adding your participation. While I dont feel the same way about a few things, I can defenitely see quite a few of the players landing where they are. Solid guess, we'll see tomorrow. :)

cincyinco
06-04-2008, 05:20 PM
Well, I appear to have been wrong in the top selections....revised guess, based on the usual sources...

1. TB -- Posey (I think the GM overrules the scouting department -- a very poor move politically, I'd say, especially in an organization that has drafted very well at the top)

2. PITT -- Alvarez

3. KC -- Hosmer

4. Balt -- T. Beckham

5. SF -- Smoak

6. FLA -- Alonso, their home boy

7. Reds -- Matusz (just like I said before)

Another great guess, I can defenitely see the draft order falling as it does in your scenario tomorrow. Very plausable draft order, and agree there is that outside shot of Matusz. The only small reach I see is Alonso at 6. I think FL has been linked heavily to Skipworth, Matusz, and Crow - but I do like the "backyard" angle on your reasoning so I can't discount it completely.

Kc61
06-04-2008, 05:26 PM
KC has been linked to nothing but Hosmer from everything I've read, so interesting scenario. I also think there is a shot we could land Alonso, so I like you going out on that limb. I'm not sure the Giants get the shot at Hosmer, or if they'd want too - I think they're looking for someone to make a more immediete impact like Lincecum.

Thanks for adding your participation. While I dont feel the same way about a few things, I can defenitely see quite a few of the players landing where they are. Solid guess, we'll see tomorrow. :)

I'm thinking Reds order of preference is Posey, Matusz, Alonso, G.Beckham, Lawrie. But maybe switch Alonso and G. Beckham.

Don't know why KC would take a Boras guy at 3 with Tim Beckham still available.

cincyinco
06-04-2008, 06:34 PM
Yeah, not saying they wouldn't take Beckham, but by all indications they like Hosmer's bat a ton. I don't think Dayton Moore is worried about a Boras Client. See Hochevar. Given that, I could still possibly see them picking Beckham would he fall to them.

Mario-Rijo
06-04-2008, 07:13 PM
1.) Rays - Posey - Tampa feels they are close, so no HS's this time.
2.) Pitt. -T. Beckham - Not talking up Beckham, so it's Beckham.
3.) K.C. - Matusz - Pitching has been all Moore been scrounging since day 1.
4.) O's - Alvarez - Baltimore can't pass on a potential MOTO bat and at a semi-premium position.
5.) S.F. - Alonso - S.F. Intrigued with MOTO Bat who is (Their M.O) nearly ready. Should also sign for less than Smoak & Hosmer.
6.) Fla. - G. Beckham - With the anticipation of Ramirez moving to 3rd or CF eventually.
7.) Reds - Smoak - Polished Switch Hitting Power who is as ready as anyone in the draft. Mostly a case of BPA (if your not a big believer in Crow).


Just trying to see it a little differently. Not necc. what I would normally predict but it's different and feasible IMO.

Cedric
06-04-2008, 07:19 PM
I'm thinking Reds order of preference is Posey, Matusz, Alonso, G.Beckham, Lawrie. But maybe switch Alonso and G. Beckham.

Don't know why KC would take a Boras guy at 3 with Tim Beckham still available.

KC has a great track record with Boras players. If anyone is going for a Boras player it would be them.

Joseph
06-04-2008, 07:22 PM
1. Rays - Buster Posey - C
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - 3B
3. Royals - Tim Beckham - SS
4. Orioles - Eric Hosmer - 1B
5. Giants - Alonso - 1B
6. Marlins - Smoak -1B
7. Reds - Matusz - RHP

Az. Reds Fan
06-04-2008, 08:10 PM
Bottom line for me is I wouldn't have a problem with the Reds picking any of the top 10 guys...Beckhams, Smoak, Alvarez, Hosmer, Alonso, Matusz, Posey, Crow (reluctantly) and I could even find good in picking Lawrie. I would like to stay away from Kelly though.

cincyinco
06-04-2008, 08:11 PM
Bottom line for me is I wouldn't have a problem with the Reds picking any of the top 10 guys...Beckhams, Smoak, Alvarez, Hosmer, Alonso, Matusz, Posey, Crow (reluctantly) and I could even find good in picking Lawrie. I would like to stay away from Kelly though.


I think a majority of us can agree on that. But care to venture a guess as to how the first 7 are going to land? ;)

redhawk61
06-04-2008, 08:23 PM
All I know is...I want to see some Smoak.

A switch hitter who hits equally well from both sides and is capable of 35-40HR's and hit for average:eek:

Move him aggressively through the minors cause I think he can handle it and hopefully have him finish the year in AA. Votto could move to LF when the Smoak rises and your looking at a lineup the second half of 2009,Leadoff hitter will still be a question mark but past the 1 spot the 2-7 could be

Kepp SS
Bruce RF
Smoak 1b
BP 2b
Votto LF
EE 3b

:eek:

Az. Reds Fan
06-04-2008, 08:23 PM
OK, let's see

Rays - T. Beckham
Pirates- Alvarez
Royals - Hosmer
Orioles - Matusz
Giants - Posey
Marlins - Smoak
Reds - G. Beckham

Alright I've edited this 3 times now, this ain't easy.

Like I've said twice before, it wouldn't shock me to see the Reds select Lawrie...where there's smoke there's fire.

Blue
06-04-2008, 08:23 PM
1. Rays - Buster Posey - C
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - 3B
3. Royals - Tim Beckham - SS
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz - LHP
5. Giants - Eric Hosmer - 1B
6. Marlins - Aaron Crow -RHP
7. Reds - G. Gordon Liddy Beckham - SS

Blue
06-04-2008, 08:35 PM
OK, let's see

Rays - T. Beckham
Pirates- Alvarez
Royals - Hosmer
Orioles - Matusz
Giants - Posey
Marlins - Smoak
Reds - G. Beckham

Alright I've edited this 3 times now, this ain't easy.

Like I've said twice before, it wouldn't shock me to see the Reds select Lawrie...where there's smoke there's fire.

nm... I saw that you edited it.

Scrap Irony
06-04-2008, 09:15 PM
1. Rays-- Posey
Catcher with a plus bat and Gold Glove caliber behind the plate? Young? Polished? Sign me up.
Ceiling: Perennial All Star C
Floor: Back-up catcher with pop
2. Pirates-- Alvarez
This has been done since Pittsburgh knew he wasn't the #1 pick. The biggest chance for a bust among the top bats, IMO. He has talent, but never seems to put it all together.
Ceiling: All Star 3B
Floor: Bust
3. Royals-- Hosmer
See Pirates at #2. Add one. Great, great bat, and at a position KC needs production from. Good pick.
Ceiling: All Star 1B
Floor: Cup of coffee
4. Orioles-- T. Bekham
Best HS athlete in the draft. Great find for a team that needs all the help it can get. Will be a solid SS for years.
Ceiling: All Star SS
Floor: Bust
5. Giants-- Smoak
They're offensively-challenged in the extreme and have absolutely no pop in the lineup, aside from Rowand. Smoak will be a ROY winner and the player most likely to become a true superstar from this draft, IMO. SH and solid with the glove, too. What's not to like?
Ceiling: HOF/ Perennial All Star 1B
Floor: Starting major league 1B
6. Marlins-- Matsutz
Marlins pitching corps is weak. Matsutz is, IMO, a quick riser through the minor league ladder, but his ceiling isn't all that high. He's more than likely a solid #3, or, at best, a good #2. Shrug.
Ceiling: #2 starter
Floor: #5 starter
7. Reds-- Lawrie
With both G. Bekham and Alfonso available, the Reds pick... a Canadian. And, IMO, it's an astute pick. His bat may profile as one of the absolute best in the draft. And, as a 3B or a C, he's a premium pick. As a 1B, he's still just as good as Alfonso and three years younger.
Ceiling: Perennial All Star C or 3B
Floor: Back-up infielder at major league level

*BaseClogger*
06-04-2008, 09:17 PM
All I know is...I want to see some Smoak.

We could have Smoak and Fogg on the same team! :D

redhawk61
06-04-2008, 09:23 PM
We could have Smoak and Fogg on the same team! :D

don't tease me