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View Full Version : Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?



UK Reds Fan
05-16-2008, 09:58 AM
After a hot start...pitiful month of May and his hitting is looking very 2007ish.

DAYTON (2007) .270 .364 .421 .785
SARASOTA (2008) .270 .347 .439 .786

April .337 .418 .526 .944
May .151 .211 .283 .494

Looking like a platoon from right side/late inning defensive replacement is more and more what we can hope Stubbs will turn out to be for Reds someday.

PuffyPig
05-16-2008, 10:45 AM
After a hot start...pitiful month of May and his hitting is looking very 2007ish.

DAYTON (2007) .270 .364 .421 .785
SARASOTA (2008) .270 .347 .439 .786

April .337 .418 .526 .944
May .151 .211 .283 .494

Looking like a platoon from right side/late inning defensive replacement is more and more what we can hope Stubbs will turn out to be for Reds someday.

Never base a players prospect status on his cold spell, or on his hot spell for that matter.

You need to look at the cummulative stats over a longer period.

In 2008, Stubbs has hit very well in a pitchers league.

He's likley ranked higher as a propsect today than he ever has been.

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 12:22 PM
Not quite.

May - Line Drive rate - 23% - BABIP .206. Those two numbers don't mesh with eachother at all. a 23% line drive rate would suggest a BABIP of .350. His strikeouts are up a little bit this month, but his 'decline' has a lot more to do with bad luck than it does anything else this month.

lollipopcurve
05-16-2008, 12:27 PM
well, we'll see -- I've been supporting Stubbs since he was drafted, and felt that the first month was evidence that he really did find something in the latter part of 07, but I'm a bit concerned by this downturn -- hope you're right that he's been hitting the ball hard, doug

fearofpopvol1
05-16-2008, 12:29 PM
A little too early to say I think. I'd like to see where he's at after 300 ABs.

lollipopcurve
05-16-2008, 12:33 PM
46Ks in about 150ABs is not a good sign for a hitter like Stubbs, who, even though he has power, is not a true power hitter -- he still has quite a bit of work to do

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 12:34 PM
well, we'll see -- I've been supporting Stubbs since he was drafted, and felt that the first month was evidence that he really did find something in the latter part of 07, but I'm a bit concerned by this downturn -- hope you're right that he's been hitting the ball hard, doug

As long as he keeps hitting line drives at the rate he currently is, he will be perfectly fine. His line drive rate in Sarasota is higher than that of Jay Bruce (by 7%) last year, higher than Chris Valaika this year (by 2%).... he will be fine, its just an unlucky streak.

ChatterRed
05-16-2008, 12:40 PM
I hope his stats continue to improve so we can package him in a trade deal.

UK Reds Fan
05-16-2008, 12:57 PM
Was Stubbs entire year at Dayton last year viewed as a dissapointment, average or above average?

I understand Stubbs is playing at a slightly higher level in Sarasota, but if 2007 was sort of given a mediocre grade by many and he is doing about the same identical stats thus far this year in a slightly higher league...wouldn't that conclude that this year is on pace thus far (25% thru the season) as another mediocre season?

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 01:11 PM
Was Stubbs entire year at Dayton last year viewed as a dissapointment, average or above average?

I understand Stubbs is playing at a slightly higher level in Sarasota, but if 2007 was sort of given a mediocre grade by many and he is doing about the same identical stats thus far this year in a slightly higher league...wouldn't that conclude that this year is on pace thus far (25% thru the season) as another mediocre season?

Depends who you ask. The same line in the FSL as in the MWL is a big improvement though.

dfs
05-16-2008, 01:31 PM
Was Stubbs entire year at Dayton last year viewed as a dissapointment, average or above average?

I understand Stubbs is playing at a slightly higher level in Sarasota, but if 2007 was sort of given a mediocre grade by many and he is doing about the same identical stats thus far this year in a slightly higher league...wouldn't that conclude that this year is on pace thus far (25% thru the season) as another mediocre season?

I think Stubb's season last year was viewed as a dissapointment that was salvaged by the last couple of months. The expectation was that with a full off season to heal, he would break out and be the player they wanted when they drafted him.

For his age and his draft slot, he should not be surviving these levels of the minors, he should be exploding through them. It's time to let that go and evaluate the guy on his own terms.

He's got the instincts, range and the arm to play major league centerfield well. I don't remember the last time the reds had a player I could confidently say that about.

He's not a disaster at the plate.

Those are the pluses.

The problem is that he's a 23 year old and only in high A ball. If he stays healthy and holds his own, he could be on the major league roster starting in 2010 as a 25 year old. While that's not superstar material, it's a year earlier than Chris Dickerson or precisely when Denorfia was ready. You hope for more out of that draft slot than it looks like we got.

It's also interesting to note, now that Stubbs seems to have finally put something together on the field, the GM who drafted him is now out of the organization and The GM in power and the manager in power are not fond of playing young guys. I don't think that bodes well for Stubbs.

flyer85
05-16-2008, 01:36 PM
There were questions about his bat when he drafted, they were there after rookie ball, they were there after low A ball, they are still there in High A ball ... they will likely be there until he makes it to the majors and proves it isn't an issue.

We'll all just have to wait and see how it turns out.

edabbs44
05-16-2008, 01:38 PM
He's likley ranked higher as a propsect today than he ever has been.

He is easily ranked lower than when he was drafted.

M2
05-16-2008, 01:40 PM
Stubbs needs to become at .850+ OPS guy if he wants to garner any serious prospect consideration. A .785 OPS player in A ball is more likely than not a sub-.700 OPS player if he ever reaches the bigs (which isn't terribly likely for an OF with those numbers).

Hopefully Stubbs does more of what we saw in April. One question I've got about him is what kind of hitter is he really? 222 games into his pro career and he's hit 19 HR. Given that he's 23, I'm starting to think the longball simply isn't going to be a featured part of his game. And if it's not, can he do enough on the OB/speed/gap power front to be productive with 10-15 HR power?

PuffyPig
05-16-2008, 02:27 PM
He is easily ranked lower than when he was drafted.

Stubbs cracked the Top 100 BA guys last year for the first time, at 100.

He'd be better than that now.

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 02:27 PM
Stubbs cracked the Top 100 BA guys last year for the first time, at 100.

He'd be better than that now.

Actually he was #88 the year he was drafted.

PuffyPig
05-16-2008, 02:29 PM
I hope his stats continue to improve so we can package him in a trade deal.


Or improve so much that he can patrol CF for the Reds.

If Stubbs continues to improve, I think there's zero chance he'll be traded, unless the Reds think he's fool's gold.

We need a CF who can be a GG winner, and Stubbs is the most likely candidate to claim that spot in our organization.

PuffyPig
05-16-2008, 02:30 PM
Actually he was #88 the year he was drafted.


Sorry, I did not know that.

Assuming Stubbs improves this year, he'll top that easily as there will be a bunch of guys who have graduated to the majors.

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 02:39 PM
Sorry, I did not know that.

Assuming Stubbs improves this year, he'll top that easily as there will be a bunch of guys who have graduated to the majors.

Yeah, but you have to count in the big guys that graduate are gone, but other high end draft picks are taking over as well.

mbgrayson
05-23-2008, 11:50 AM
I was looking over Stubbs splits HERE (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%20Stubbs&pos=&sid=t535&t=p_pbp&pid=453211). I found an interesting thing: he is terrible at home and great on the road. Not sure why, but here are the splits:

Home: .182/.238/.286 for an OPS of .524. Zero HRs.
Road: .352/.449/.538 for an OPS of .987. Two HRs.

He has 82 home plate appearances, and 106 on the road. So the sample size isn't huge, but the difference is so striking it makes me wonder what is going on. I can't find home/road splits for 2006 or 2007 for Billings or Dayton.