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View Full Version : Jay Bruce #1 on BA Hotsheet and Francisco in the team photo



dougdirt
05-16-2008, 02:31 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2008/266116.html

Team: Triple-A Louisville (International)
Age: 21
Why He's Here: .632/.682/1.421 (12-for-19), 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBIs, 7 R, 3 BB, 2 SO
The Scoop: Bruce was so good this week that superlatives alone cannot do him justice. (A 2.103 OPS—are you kidding?) In last week's Hot Sheet, we speculated that Bruce was just getting started, because he had reached base in 12 of his last 19 plate appearances. But even we could not have been prepared for this type of offensive onslaught.

Bruce is hitting as well now as he has at any point in his pro career. He finished a single shy of the cycle on Wednesday, though in an encouraging sign, he did draw two unintentional walks in the game. He's batting .366/.398/.662 overall and has hits in nine of his last 10. And for such a young lefty batter, he hangs in against his own side, batting .383/.380/.660 in 47 at-bats.

For a man who owns a .566 career slugging percentage at the Triple-A level (at ages 20 and 21, no less), Bruce needs only to refine his batting eye (seven unintentional walks in 39 games) to get that first call-up to Cincinnati.

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High Class A Sarasota's Juan Francisco (Reds) continues to light up opposing pitchers. The 20-year-old third baseman went 10-for-18 this week with two doubles and two home runs and six RBIs. In May he's batting .360/.373/.600

OnBaseMachine
05-16-2008, 02:35 PM
You probably think you're cool because you beat me by five seconds... don't you?;)

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 02:38 PM
You probably think you're cool because you beat me by five seconds... don't you?;)

You know it :beerme:

OnBaseMachine
05-16-2008, 02:46 PM
Don't forget to flood BA with plenty of Reds questions. I sent about 10 in.

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 02:48 PM
Don't forget to flood BA with plenty of Reds questions. I sent about 10 in.

I think I have sent in 5....

OesterPoster
05-16-2008, 03:02 PM
Do they have splits on Francisco's stats anywhere? I'm curious if he's hitting more strongly from the left or right side.

redhawk61
05-16-2008, 03:34 PM
Hey Doug, with Shaun Cumberland's success the second half of last year after the trade, and his continuance of that success so far this year, can he been seen as a legit prospect now?

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 04:13 PM
Cumberland is a legit prospect, although one in the 20-30 range still. 23 year olds in AA with an OPS over .900 with a strong showing of plate discipline, average and power.... yeah, that makes anyone a legit prospect.

Also got one of my questions answered at BA....

Q: Jay Bruce from Louisville asks:
How much longer can it be until I finally start getting at bats over Corey Patterson?

A:
Matt Eddy: The ability to drive the ball is most crucial to Bruce's future success (and he's shown that), but the Reds want to make sure he's got a firm grasp of the strike zone before setting him loose against NL pitchers.

Matt Eddy: While we don't have data on how many bad pitches Bruce has chased this year, we do know that he's drawn seven unintentional walks in 39 games this year. I'm not trying to paint this as a concern—just pointing out the Reds' line of thinking.

OnBaseMachine
05-16-2008, 04:25 PM
Here's another Reds related question:

Q: Chris from Gaylord, MI asks:
With so many great players coming through the minors. When do you see the reds contending? When will we finally see Bruce and Bailey?

A: Matt Eddy: Playing in the NL Central, the Reds could conceivably catch lightning in a bottle and contend in any season. And you can't write them off this year, either. Dunn won't slug .413 all year, and Bruce should give them a boost when he gets called up.

Matt Eddy: For the Reds, the stars seem to be aligning for 2010. By that time, Cueto, Volquez, Bruce, Votto and Bailey—barring injury to any of them—will all have one to two seasons of experience. And Dunn and Griffey will have been traded for younger players. Harang will be exiting his theoretical peak, but then his career arc has been so unconventional that it's anybody's guess what he'll do.

Kc61
05-16-2008, 04:41 PM
Love seeing Francisco in the Hot Sheet. I know he is OBP challenged, but I think we tend to underrate him on this board. Fact is, he is hitting very well at High A ball and is only 20. Has excellent power and a great throwing arm.

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 04:49 PM
Q: Santino from Cincy asks:
Matt - Francisco is off to a good start. It's a bit weird because his strikeout ratio is down a bit down this year, but the walks aren't up at all. Out of Francisco, Frazier, Waring (and maybe even Valakia), who do you think is the Red's best option at third long term?
A:

Matt Eddy: Francisco is very intriguing, and he's the guy I'd go with in that group. He's a switch-hitting third baseman with power from both sides of the plate (he led the MWL in HR last season), but you do have to be a little concerned about his strike-zone discipline. A scout recently said that he loves Francisco's hitting hands and bat actions, but wonders if his swing-at-the-first-pitch approach would hinder him as he moves up the ladder.

I want to note that I have never seen Francisco bat both ways. Anyone have Dragons season tickets? I was pretty sure he gave up switch hitting..... Matt Eddy doesn't seem to sure.

OesterPoster
05-16-2008, 04:53 PM
I swear I saw him switch-hit for Dayton last year, but I might be wrong.

OnBaseMachine
05-16-2008, 05:02 PM
Here is one of my questions:

Q: Brandon from Charleston, WV asks:
Chris Valaika - the next Michael Young? Is that a fair comparison? Same college, similar hitters, and both lack solid range at SS?

A: Matt Eddy: Not the worst comp in the world, but Young is and was much more athletic. And while he's not an ideal shortstop, Young is playable at the major league level. Valaika is a hitting machine, but he'll probably break into the big leagues as a second baseman, like Young did.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-16-2008, 05:02 PM
Do they have splits on Francisco's stats anywhere? I'm curious if he's hitting more strongly from the left or right side.

Here you go.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Francisco%20%203B&pos=&sid=t535&t=p_pbp&pid=464433

OnBaseMachine
05-16-2008, 05:03 PM
And another Reds related question:

Q: Ron from Mobile AL asks:
Do you guys really think the only reason Bruce is still in AAA because of his walk total? Or is it more likely that it is because of the glut of LH OF on the Reds roster? I just cant see Bruce getting everyday starts over Dunn or Griffey, and Bakers love fest with Corey Patterson has many Reds fans pretty disgruntled. If you were Walt Jockety ... what would you do?

A: Matt Eddy: You have a point in that being a powerful lefty bat is probably working against Bruce right now because of the presence of Dunn, Griffey and Votto (and others).

Matt Eddy: Griffey really can't hit his 600th homer soon enough, can he? Once he does, the Reds have to strongly consider trading him. And Dunn, too, if they can find the right trading partner. If not, let him walk and take the draft picks. Either way, Bruce could be in Cincy by June.

fearofpopvol1
05-16-2008, 05:09 PM
Is Francisco good defensively? I still like Frazier the best of that group, though his defense is bad.

Spring~Fields
05-17-2008, 02:52 AM
And another Reds related question:

Q: Ron from Mobile AL asks:
Do you guys really think the only reason Bruce is still in AAA because of his walk total? Or is it more likely that it is because of the glut of LH OF on the Reds roster? I just cant see Bruce getting everyday starts over Dunn or Griffey, and Bakers love fest with Corey Patterson has many Reds fans pretty disgruntled. If you were Walt Jockety ... what would you do?

A: Matt Eddy: You have a point in that being a powerful lefty bat is probably working against Bruce right now because of the presence of Dunn, Griffey and Votto (and others).

Matt Eddy: Griffey really can't hit his 600th homer soon enough, can he? Once he does, the Reds have to strongly consider trading him. And Dunn, too, if they can find the right trading partner. If not, let him walk and take the draft picks. Either way, Bruce could be in Cincy by June.

I think this individual has the best handle on what is transpiring when he points to the left handed players on the roster vs others supporting the company line comments that suggest that a batter with a .364 batting average, .395 on base percentage along with a .669 slugging percentage and a 1.064 OPS might need additional plate work before he deserves an opportunity. Especially while it is a real possibility that none of the current Reds can hit as well as Bruce or handle the bat at the plate to his level of achievement, and apparently have greater problems with plate discipline or bat control than a Jay Bruce does.

The latter doesn’t fly in the face of the current Reds while five of their roster players with major league tenure are sporting inferior numbers. Jay Bruce is compelled to work on patience, not patience at the plate, but patience in waiting until upper management wakes up and stops spin doctoring their propaganda regarding Bruce’s development when the six left handed bats, their contracts and a manager that has a track record for favoring age or veteran type players over the younger, has the much higher probability of being the culprit that keeps Bruce down.

Six of the thirteen position players bat left handed, even Valetin bats better from the left side, while we frequently see Baker speak of how tough it is to construct the lineups with the left hander’s. Too bad for us fans that the manager and staff over estimated Patterson and under estimated the younger Jay Bruce. I just hope that Jocketty doesn’t eventually use Bruce for a trading chip, because you know he probably won’t be able to get much for the others that he has available and of course we don’t want him to trade any decent pitching. When Texas came calling, they chose Hamilton, and chose to leave the rest of the Reds horses back in the barn and in the stable, and we are seeing why. Could you imagine the cry’s of injustice over the oversight if Bako wasn’t having a career year at the age of 35?

Six of the thirteen:
Bako
Hatteberg
Votto
Dunn
Griffey
Patterson

RedlegJake
05-17-2008, 03:19 AM
I'll be absolutely stunned if Jocketty trades Jay Bruce. With Hal reporting that Seattle sources don't see Junior's salary as a problem I think some kind of Junior to Seattle deal gets done once the 600 homers are done. Probably not alot coming back but it'll open Bruce a spot. The guy I do see getting traded is Homer Bailey. With Thompson right behind him, and Cueto and Volquez already up, Homer may be seen as an expendable chip and end up in a deal. Jocketty has made some Krusty-esque deals before and I expect another one this summer.

dougdirt
05-17-2008, 03:36 AM
I'll be absolutely stunned if Jocketty trades Jay Bruce. With Hal reporting that Seattle sources don't see Junior's salary as a problem I think some kind of Junior to Seattle deal gets done once the 600 homers are done. Probably not alot coming back but it'll open Bruce a spot. The guy I do see getting traded is Homer Bailey. With Thompson right behind him, and Cueto and Volquez already up, Homer may be seen as an expendable chip and end up in a deal. Jocketty has made some Krusty-esque deals before and I expect another one this summer.

While I could see Bailey being traded one day, I don't think any day this year is that day. Why trade a young, high ceiling player in a lost season? Unless we go 2007 Rockies and win 20 straight or something, we aren't winning this thing and likely aren't sniffing contention for it.

RedlegJake
05-17-2008, 03:42 AM
Doug, I simply see Bailey as the most expendable valuable chip looking at the Reds situation. I'm not down on him at all as a prospect, quite the oppsite -that's why I think he gets traded.

Spring~Fields
05-17-2008, 03:51 AM
I'll be absolutely stunned if Jocketty trades Jay Bruce. With Hal reporting that Seattle sources don't see Junior's salary as a problem I think some kind of Junior to Seattle deal gets done once the 600 homers are done. Probably not alot coming back but it'll open Bruce a spot. The guy I do see getting traded is Homer Bailey. With Thompson right behind him, and Cueto and Volquez already up, Homer may be seen as an expendable chip and end up in a deal. Jocketty has made some Krusty-esque deals before and I expect another one this summer.


I agree with much of what you are saying and indicating that could or will be used for trading chips yet I have to consider the power and influence of the gatekeeper on the field operations. But for the sake that Jocketty has limited trading chips with the Reds current player resources that other clubs would have real demand for with the exception of young pitching or Jay Bruce, most of the others have contract or performance blemishes. I also think that Junior was playing to the crowd, and that he doesn't have any serious interest in returning to Seattle, a contender maybe, but Seattle, I don't think so really.

I think that we would be seriously wise to not under estimate the gatekeeper on any deal that is or might be considered. The gatekeeper that prefers older players over younger players with what might be a less seasoned approach to the game of baseball, but not always true. One has to look at what is, and has been, to notice that the gatekeeper prefers a veteran Bako, Corey Patterson or a Hairston over possible and potential stars.

I have to remember Corey Patterson leading off and starting center field, I have to recall an aging superstar past him prime getting the call to bat third and to start regularly despite his lack of range in right field, and the latest where a young slick fielding shortstop Janish gets the call to replace an injured Keppinger and a veteran Hairston receives the playing time despite Hairston being out of place at ss. Fortunately the aged Bako is having a career year to date.

The gatekeeper, Baker will want to continue to follow his patterns that we have seen, so that might have an impact on any potential Jocketty selections to improve the ball club, I just can’t dismiss Bakers role out of hand.

I differ in opinion in that I don't think that Jocketty will do anything until the off-season of any significance, though it would not come as a surprise if he moved some of the lesser or aged and former talents that will be coming to an end of their contracts.

dougdirt
05-17-2008, 04:07 AM
Doug, I simply see Bailey as the most expendable valuable chip looking at the Reds situation. I'm not down on him at all as a prospect, quite the oppsite -that's why I think he gets traded.

Sure.... but why trade him to get something back in a lost season? These are the types of seasons you trade to rebuild with for the next year not trade what could be next year for other things.