PDA

View Full Version : Baseball America's first mock draft has Reds selecting...



OnBaseMachine
05-16-2008, 05:14 PM
Aaron Crow, though they report rumors of Casey Kelly to the Reds. Kelly wouldn't be the worst pick in the world but I'd be pretty upset if the Reds selected Kelly over Alvarez, the two Beckhams, Crow, Matusz, Posey, or Smoak. They have Gordon Beckham going No. 8 overall to the White Sox.

7. REDS. When Crow put together a 43-inning scoreless streak early in the season, he looked like the top candidate to go No. 1, and Cincinnati would be thrilled if he somehow made it this far. One rumor that won't die pairs the Reds with Florida high school righthander/shortstop/quarterback Casey Kelly, who would be a bit of a reach. Casey's father Pat manages the organization's Rookie-level Gulf Coast League affiliate.

Projected Pick: AARON CROW.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266117.html

*BaseClogger*
05-16-2008, 05:20 PM
college pitcher with top-top stuff? Sounds good to me...

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 05:22 PM
Gross. I want nothing to do with Crow this early in the draft.

*BaseClogger*
05-16-2008, 05:23 PM
is there more to Crow, such as mechanics or really bad control?

OnBaseMachine
05-16-2008, 05:26 PM
I'll be pretty pumped up if the Reds draft Crow. His health risk is no worse than Lincecum's was a couple years ago IMO. His stuff is compared to A.J. Burnett. I'll definitely take that. He could probably reach the majors within two seasons and give the Reds a future rotation of Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Crow, and Homer Bailey/Daryl Thompson.

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 05:41 PM
I'll be pretty pumped up if the Reds draft Crow. His health risk is no worse than Lincecum's was a couple years ago IMO. His stuff is compared to A.J. Burnett. I'll definitely take that. He could probably reach the majors within two seasons and give the Reds a future rotation of Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Crow, and Homer Bailey/Daryl Thompson.

Lincecum had funky mechanics and a small size. Crow has bad mechanics. The difference between the two is pretty substantial associated between the risk, at least in my opinion.

OesterPoster
05-16-2008, 05:44 PM
I'm not an expert, but watching video of Crow's throwing motion makes my arm hurt. I don't know how he gets his throwing elbow so high, then curls the ball around his wrist in his throwing motion.

It hurts me to watch it, but I also have a shoulder which clicks and pops. :)

cincyinco
05-16-2008, 05:52 PM
Doug, what about his mechanics is bad?

Because I dont really see too much of an issue, other tahn what Oester pointed out above, with the curling the ball around his wrist...

Couldn't something like that be "fixed"? And if not, what kind of undo stress does that put on the arm? I'm not so sure its a dealbreaker for me on Crowe.

LoganBuck
05-16-2008, 05:55 PM
Aaron Crow's mechanics broken down. It is a little scary.

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/03/28/aaroncrowmechanalysis/

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 06:02 PM
Doug, what about his mechanics is bad?

Because I dont really see too much of an issue, other tahn what Oester pointed out above, with the curling the ball around his wrist...

Couldn't something like that be "fixed"? And if not, what kind of undo stress does that put on the arm? I'm not so sure its a dealbreaker for me on Crowe.

As he loads to come toward the plate, his pitching elbow gets way too high for my liking. Whenever your shoulder is lower than your elbow, its a big reg flag to me. Top that off with the wrist thing and thats two red flags in his mechanics. I am not a fan of having to remake a first round pick's mechanics.... be it with his swing or his throwing. Considering that its in the top 10, I would certainly stay away.

icehole3
05-16-2008, 07:20 PM
I know this is a little off topic, but do you think Cueto has good mechanics???

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 07:50 PM
I know this is a little off topic, but do you think Cueto has good mechanics???

He doesn't do anything that worries me so much in terms of an injury.

klw
05-16-2008, 10:53 PM
the cocked wrist reminds me of Rick Sutcliffe. He looked stiff in the shoulders when throwing in the bullpen video.

edabbs44
05-16-2008, 11:04 PM
Prior had "perfect" mechanics when he came out and Lincecum was a risk.

Youi never know.

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 11:20 PM
Prior had "perfect" mechanics when he came out and Lincecum was a risk.

Youi never know.

Except Priors mechanics weren't perfect, he just repeated them perfect.

cincyinco
05-16-2008, 11:35 PM
Everything I ever heard/read about Prior was that he had perfect mechanics. Not that he just repeated them.

I'm a big believer that the level of knowledge about pitching and mechanics - although improved, is still in its infancy in that there's still a ton more we don't know. In other words, a lot more we DONT know, than what we do.

I'm a believer that there isn't a specific "right way" to pitch - mechanics wise. Deception via unorthodox delivery can be a big benefit. Lincecum's mechanic's never scared me, after reading about his unorthodox workout regimine/throwing program and personal injury history. Likewise, Dontrelle Willis never bothered me either, and a big fan of his windup. Great stuff to watch.

edabbs44
05-16-2008, 11:35 PM
Except Priors mechanics weren't perfect, he just repeated them perfect.

Hindsight is 20/20. When people say stuff like this:


Prior a definite two-year stud
By Will Carroll and Nate Silver
Special to ESPN.com

In the terminology of pitching biomechanics, Mark Prior is a freak.

Stand near Prior in the Cubs' clubhouse, and you'll see that his calves are roughly the size of an average man's thigh. As Prior goes through his delivery and pushes off the rubber, the strong muscles drive his body forward. While the gyrations of a windup like Dontrelle Willis or Hideo Nomo make it difficult to assess their mechanics and add to the deception a hitter faces, Prior's efficient delivery disguises the linear driveline his pitches come through.

While we all know that the quickest path between two points is a straight line, few pitchers can regularly bring a baseball in a straight line to home plate. Prior can.


Mark Prior might emerge as the best pitcher in the game.

According to Gary Heil of the National Pitching Alliance, Prior was tested using high-tech Matrix-like technology to assess his mechanics.

"No one else was even close," Heil said. "He's the model; he's perfect."

Dr. Mike Marshall is a former Cy Young Award winner who has completed extensive scientific studies of the pitching motion. Using basic, Newtonian principles of inertia and reaction, Marshall's teachings show that Prior's controlled delivery is near ideal.

He'd be the Six Million Dollar Bionic Pitcher. Except that when his salary arbitration payday comes up, he'll undoubtedly make a lot more than that.

But Prior isn't the only pitcher to achieve such success, and receive so much attention, so early in his career. We consulted with our BP colleagues to create a top 10 list of the best two-year debuts by starting pitchers in the modern era. The factors we evaluated, in rough order of priority, were the following: ERA relative to league average (ERA+), wins above replacement level (WARP), strikeout-to-walk ratio, W-L record, and age at time of debut (younger debuts are considered more impressive). We tried not to consider how the pitcher fared down the road, accounting only for the strength of the first two full seasons (50 or more IP) on their own merits.


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1623962

It's kind of difficult to believe others when they say "I always thought his mechanics were bad." If Crow's ripping it up 5 years from now, I'm sure the masses will say that they are so bad they're good. Or something like that.

dougdirt
05-16-2008, 11:43 PM
Hindsight is 20/20. When people say stuff like this:



http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1623962

It's kind of difficult to believe others when they say "I always thought his mechanics were bad." If Crow's ripping it up 5 years from now, I'm sure the masses will say that they are so bad they're good. Or something like that.

While I can't say that back in 2002 I was as into baseball and studying it as I am now, I am sure there were some out there saying his mechanics weren't clean. He has a similar issue that Crow has. That back elbow gets up much higher than his shoulder does as he loads to come forward. That isn't good and it never has been.

cincyinco
05-16-2008, 11:54 PM
Find me a report that says his mechanics were not good Doug.. I challenge you.

I dont think you'll find it.

dougdirt
05-17-2008, 12:03 AM
Find me a report that says his mechanics were not good Doug.. I challenge you.

I dont think you'll find it.

I don't think I will either... for several reasons. Firstly, its tough to find stuff online from that long ago. Secondly, its going to be the minority that saw the issue with his mechanics. However, the same flaw Prior has/had is one that people see all the time now in other pitchers.

I think we, as a whole, don't know nearly as much as we could one day about pitching mechanics and really are just scratching the surface of it. I do know that if I know what I do now back then, I would have been one bringing up his mechanical issue. Kyle Lotzkar has it and it scares the crap out of me. Liriano has it, Zumaya has it, Anthony Reyes has it, John Smoltz has it.

ChatterRed
05-17-2008, 04:31 AM
There might be some people having to EAT CROW if this happens. ;)

camisadelgolf
05-17-2008, 04:09 PM
I'm not advocating the drafting of Crow, but many players have bad mechanics and manage to put together several respectable seasons even though many of those seasons are shortened by injury.

Blue
05-17-2008, 04:33 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Prior#Injuries

Mark Prior had some uncommon "freak" injuries. I think people overlook that too often.

I've looked at the video of Crow on MiLB.com, and I'm not seeing this flaw that you're talking about. I'd be happy with Tim or Gordon Beckham, Alvarez, Matusz, Crow, Posey, or Smoak. One of them will be available, and Smoak would be my worst case scenario (which is pretty darn good).

LoganBuck
05-17-2008, 04:45 PM
I'm not advocating the drafting of Crow, but many players have bad mechanics and manage to put together several respectable seasons even though many of those seasons are shortened by injury.

Can you imagine the uproar if they draft Crow and his arm blows up next spring? The Gruler pick times infinity.

Outshined_One
05-18-2008, 05:06 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Prior#Injuries

Mark Prior had some uncommon "freak" injuries. I think people overlook that too often.

I'm convinced to this day his collision with Giles was what completely threw his mechanics out of whack and turned him into an injury-prone mess. His arm slot never looked the same to me after that. Couple that with the line drive he took off his pitching arm and it's a miracle the guy still has his right arm attached. His pitcher abuse points were also pretty nuts throughout his time with the Cubs.

Would he have stayed healthy if those two freak injuries and Dusty Baker never happened to him? I can't say. I sincerely doubt he'd have become a walking shoulder injury this early in his career, but down the line is a bit harder to assess. He had a tendency to keep his pitching elbow above his shoulder during his windup (see: The Inverted W (http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html)). It's not the best thing in the world for a pitcher to have, although more evidence on the subject would be welcome.

Mechanics are critical to assess. Crow's are a bit screwed up, but, at the same time, reworking a guy's mechanics can be doable. When Verlander was at Old Dominion, he was hitting 100 and showcased some wicked stuff, but his mechanics were screwed up and his control was rather bad (as evidenced by 20 WPs in his junior season). Some of the Tigers' scouts and coaches picked up on a mechanical flaw in his delivery and tweaked it the offseason after he was drafted. The next season, he posted spectacular numbers in High A and AA while getting a cup of coffee in Detroit.

If you have a guy with mechanical flaws that can be corrected while at the very least keeping his stuff (if not improving it), then, by all means, draft the guy. There are a lot of factors that could go into how successful those mechanical tweaks will be, granted, but it's worth the effort if it pays off.

NC Reds
05-18-2008, 04:07 PM
http://usdtoreros.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/051508aab.html

I hope Matusz falls to us.

http://usdtoreros.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/teamcume.html

mound_patrol
05-19-2008, 03:05 PM
I'm convinced to this day his collision with Giles was what completely threw his mechanics out of whack and turned him into an injury-prone mess. His arm slot never looked the same to me after that. Couple that with the line drive he took off his pitching arm and it's a miracle the guy still has his right arm attached. His pitcher abuse points were also pretty nuts throughout his time with the Cubs.

Would he have stayed healthy if those two freak injuries and Dusty Baker never happened to him? I can't say. I sincerely doubt he'd have become a walking shoulder injury this early in his career, but down the line is a bit harder to assess. He had a tendency to keep his pitching elbow above his shoulder during his windup (see: The Inverted W (http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html)). It's not the best thing in the world for a pitcher to have, although more evidence on the subject would be welcome.

Mechanics are critical to assess. Crow's are a bit screwed up, but, at the same time, reworking a guy's mechanics can be doable. When Verlander was at Old Dominion, he was hitting 100 and showcased some wicked stuff, but his mechanics were screwed up and his control was rather bad (as evidenced by 20 WPs in his junior season). Some of the Tigers' scouts and coaches picked up on a mechanical flaw in his delivery and tweaked it the offseason after he was drafted. The next season, he posted spectacular numbers in High A and AA while getting a cup of coffee in Detroit.

If you have a guy with mechanical flaws that can be corrected while at the very least keeping his stuff (if not improving it), then, by all means, draft the guy. There are a lot of factors that could go into how successful those mechanical tweaks will be, granted, but it's worth the effort if it pays off.

Sometimes changing a mechanical flaw can do more harm then good though. The muscles are built around that flaw so changing the mechanics can weaken the area. The best time to change something like his wrist curl would be if he was coming back from surgery.

We played against Crow this year right before he went on his scoreless streak. We had a weak hitting team and managed 2 runs. He looked rather unimpressive until one of our players got into a war of words with him and ticked him off. He followed that by striking the last batter out on 3 pitches. 2 were hard biting sliders. He did do a nice job of working pitches in and out.

OnBaseMachine
05-22-2008, 03:54 PM
BA is doing a draft chat today and they answered one of my questions:

Q: Brandon from Charleston, WV asks:
Hey Matt, who are you hearing the Reds will select at #7?

A: Matt Blood: The Reds at seven is a very interesting question. If Aaron Crow is still available, they will most likely snatch him. Crow has close to Major League ready stuff, and the Reds need pitching. However, if Gordon Beckham is still available at that pick, don't be surprised to see him taken. Another player to watch is Florida rhp/ss Casey Kelly who's father coaches in the Red's minor league system. However, Kelly is more likely to fit into the Red's second selection.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2008052201&rnd=6

RedlegJake
05-22-2008, 04:00 PM
G Beckham 1 and Casey Kelley 2 would be a nice set of picks to start the draft but I don;t know if Kelley will last that long

Rojo
05-22-2008, 06:09 PM
Hope might triumph over experience and lead me to Posey.

HBP
05-22-2008, 08:31 PM
G Beckham 1 and Casey Kelley 2 would be a nice set of picks to start the draft but I don;t know if Kelley will last that long

The Reds don't have a 2nd round pick to select him with (Cordero).

Blue
05-22-2008, 09:11 PM
mlb-draft.com (I don't know how good of a source that is) has the Reds picking Brian Matusz in their latest mock. That would be nice. They put Skipworth and Gordon Beckham in earlier slots. Crow at 8.

OnBaseMachine
05-22-2008, 09:18 PM
mlb-draft.com (I don't know how good of a source that is) has the Reds picking Brian Matusz in their latest mock. That would be nice. They put Skipworth and Gordon Beckham in earlier slots. Crow at 8.

I would do cartwheels if Matusz fell to the Reds but it's not going to happen.

RedlegJake
05-22-2008, 10:20 PM
The Reds don't have a 2nd round pick to select him with (Cordero).

I saying 3rd round with pick #83, Kelley won't make it there, likely not Cutter Dykstra either

RedlegJake
05-22-2008, 10:22 PM
I would do cartwheels if Matusz fell to the Reds but it's not going to happen.

Me too! I'd love Matusz! He'll never get past the O's from what I've heard

redhawk61
05-22-2008, 11:11 PM
I saying 3rd round with pick #83, Kelley won't make it there, likely not Cutter Dykstra either

At #83 I really want Riccio Torrez 2B 6-0 190 R/R He gets the ultimate compliment from scouts by being called a real "baseball player." He's a five-tool player, with the bat as the only plus one. Defensively, he'll make for a good second baseman as a pro and has a very mature makeup. His brother is the second baseman at ASU and he is committed to the same school. Torrez can flat-out hit the baseball. He uses excellent bat control and makes solid contact, usually up the middle and the other way. He's got a short and compact swing.


I know we got ourselves a 2nd baseman but I really like this kid, and I think he could be moved around as we see fit

RedlegJake
05-23-2008, 02:16 AM
Yeah I wouldn't mind Torrez at 83. I heard the term "baseball rat" used to describe him. I like that. A guy who eats sleeps and breathes baseball and hits like dynamite. Cuter Dykstra draws comps to his dad except he's bigger and stronger while still as fast and Kelly is an all round good athlete. I'd be happy with any of them at 83.

RedlegJake
05-23-2008, 02:17 AM
Yeah I wouldn't mind Torrez at 83. I heard the term "baseball rat" used to describe him. I like that. A guy who eats sleeps and breathes baseball and hits like dynamite. Cuter Dykstra draws comps to his dad except he's bigger and stronger while still as fast and Kelly is an all round good athlete. I'd be happy with any of them at 83.