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View Full Version : 2009: $34 million dollars of salary dropped



LouisvilleCARDS
05-19-2008, 03:47 AM
I'm assuming Griffey and Dunn won't be here, also Patterson is a one year deal. Griffey has a buyout option, but he may not even pursue that supposedly according to Hal McCoy.

Here is the salary stats:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/teamSalary?statsId=17

Here are contract details:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/cincinnati-reds_24.html

I added up who is in their contract years and:

You take $13 mil for Dunn, $8.3 mil for Griffey, $3 mil for Patterson, $3 mil for Affeldt, $2.7 mil for Weathers, $2.5 mil for Ross, $1.9 mil for Hatteberg, $1.35 Valentine, as the main players in final years, that adds up to about 33.8 million dollars. Stanton's $3 mil the Reds have to pay this year is not applicable next year also, but that isn't counted. This isn't counting if Griffey's option is bought out.

Also it says Josh Hamilton is only in a 1 year contract, I wonder if he would consider returning here in free agency to fill an outfield spot if he continues to do well this year. I imagine he's grateful to the Reds organization for giving him a shot. Hamilton + Bruce would be a nice outfield combo.

Krawhitham
05-19-2008, 04:15 AM
Also it says Josh Hamilton is only in a 1 year contract, I wonder if he would consider returning here in free agency to fill an outfield spot if he continues to do well this year. I imagine he's grateful to the Reds organization for giving him a shot. Hamilton + Bruce would be a nice outfield combo.

Texas owns Josh for 4 more years before he can be a FA

Ahhhorsepoo
05-19-2008, 07:26 AM
also there was alot of animosity according to those in the locker room.. soo I am not sure that going to Texas hasn't helped him just as much as cincy giving him a shot..

FlightRick
05-19-2008, 07:33 AM
You'll want to look into the raises that we already owe Harang, Arroyo, and Phillips next year. And also: consider the raise that we don't know how much it will be, but which we will owe to Edwin.

Bottom line: Bruce replaces Junior, Junior's money pays for everybody's raises, and the actual (significantly-less-than-$34m) money left over needs to replace Dunn (possibly with 4 more years of Dunn) and provide us with a CF'er and a catcher. And a couple of bullpen arms.

In real terms, we're talking about needing to fill 3 everyday starting jobs (and 2 high leverage relief jobs) with less than $20m in "found money." Granted, ownership could up payroll to help things out, but contrary to this thread's assumptions, this ain't a situation that's gonna be solved by a shopping spree....


Rick

Ahhhorsepoo
05-19-2008, 07:34 AM
milwaukee got braun for a STEAL and he is a better left fielder.. and a better batter.. and way younger.. soo please dont tell me you think dunn is worth more than 10 mil..

durl
05-19-2008, 09:17 AM
Check out this site that gives a "bang for the buck" analysis based upon 2007 salaries and statistics:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/rankings/baseball_salaries/list.jsp?pageID=article&year=2007&content=methodology&type=methodology

Krovvy Red
05-19-2008, 09:28 AM
milwaukee got braun for a STEAL and he is a better left fielder.. and a better batter.. and way younger.. soo please dont tell me you think dunn is worth more than 10 mil..

Because Braun was getting arbitration years bought out. He took long term security over maximum earning potential. Dunn, however, has far more leverage.

That being said, $20 MM or so could still very easily fill out this roster. Coco Crisp could be had for a B+ prospect at this point and he only makes about $5 MM in '09. Or Bruce could play CF (at least for '09) giving us more options in searching for OFers (we would be able to hunt for cheap corners as opposed to going after a pure CF). A Griffey or Dunn trade this year could possibly rectify the catching situation. We're just going to have to take a gamble on some bullpen guys or we could raise payroll to accomidate more security there.

Nasty_Boy
05-19-2008, 09:35 AM
I'm not sold on AD not being here next season. This past week has shown how important he is to this offense. He's defense is improved, probably because his knee is healthy.

ahhhorsepoo
I totally disagree about Braun's defense. He and Chris Duncan should fight it out for worst LF'er in the division. Braun may have more range on those young legs, but he is a terrible outfielder. I do think that he's young and athletic enough to eventually be pretty good out there.

Ghosts of 1990
05-19-2008, 10:45 AM
That money is FBD.

"Future Bruce Dollars"

We can't touch it :)

Hondo
05-19-2008, 11:00 AM
I'm not sold on AD not being here next season. This past week has shown how important he is to this offense. He's defense is improved, probably because his knee is healthy.

ahhhorsepoo
I totally disagree about Braun's defense. He and Chris Duncan should fight it out for worst LF'er in the division. Braun may have more range on those young legs, but he is a terrible outfielder. I do think that he's young and athletic enough to eventually be pretty good out there.

You've just now come to the conclusion in the last week how Important Dunn is to the Offense?

Nasty_Boy
05-19-2008, 11:03 AM
Absolutely not! I have been one of the few that has preached Dunn's worth! He has been the most important part of this Reds offense for the last 4 seasons. As he goes, so do the Reds. I thought Dunn should have been signed to a LTC by now. Hopefully Big Bob has the same love affair with AD as he did last season.

bubbachunk
05-19-2008, 11:12 AM
milwaukee got braun for a STEAL and he is a better left fielder.. and a better batter.. and way younger.. soo please dont tell me you think dunn is worth more than 10 mil..

dunn is more proven and he got locked up long term, that is why they could get him so cheap

Hondo
05-19-2008, 11:41 AM
Hopefully Bob will Lock up Adam Dunn to a LTC around 14-15 Million a year...

After that... There are not really any Starting Pitchers I like in next years crop besides Brad Penny, and I would give him 15 Million over 6 Years too, but I don't own the team.

Nuxhall41
05-19-2008, 12:46 PM
Dunn will be back IMO. Griffey obviously won't.

bigred97
05-19-2008, 12:52 PM
I agree that we need to sign Dunn to LTC. We are not going to find anyone better in the offseason.

44Magnum
05-19-2008, 01:25 PM
I sure hope we don't fall for the "one or two hot weeks a year" bit from Dunn again. He has to go. The Reds will never win with him here!

Hondo
05-19-2008, 01:33 PM
I sure hope we don't fall for the "one or two hot weeks a year" bit from Dunn again. He has to go. The Reds will never win with him here!

The Reds have not won since he has been here because of Poor Managment, and Really Bad, Bad Pitching...

Adam Dunn has been a Great Offensive piece the last 4 years...

mroby85
05-19-2008, 02:43 PM
It's the same thing with dunn year after year, he is terrible for a major portion of the season, and absolutely goes off at certain points during the year. I would much rather them bring in a consistent hitter that can play good defense. Dunn doesn't make this team that much better, I realize its an inopportune time to say this after the weekend, but he's not a $15 million dollar player in my opinion.

Krovvy Red
05-19-2008, 03:07 PM
The problem with the argument that Dunn is so integral to this offense or that we're not going to find anything better this offseason is that the team is not winning. What good is it being important to an offense that's not that good in the first place? And what good is it locking up the best available guy during this offseason if the team isn't going to contend in '09?

I'm not trying to sound pessimistic because I'm really not. I'm very optimistic about this team over the next 2-3 seasons. But that's exactly why I wouldn't re-sign Dunn. Just because $15 MM/year would lock him up and he's the best available player (which he won't be), doesn't mean there aren't better ways to allocate that money. Krivsky set this team up to run lean. Fill as many roster spots with inexpensive young talent. Then you fill out the rest of the team with free agent pieces. Dunn getting a LTC clogs one of those spots while the money used for such a deal could be spread over more fiscally responsible signings at multiple positions. It's about getting more value for your money, and Dunn is the exact opposite of that.

durl
05-19-2008, 03:19 PM
It's the same thing with dunn year after year, he is terrible for a major portion of the season, and absolutely goes off at certain points during the year. I would much rather them bring in a consistent hitter that can play good defense. Dunn doesn't make this team that much better, I realize its an inopportune time to say this after the weekend, but he's not a $15 million dollar player in my opinion.

The question is, are you willing to give up 15-20 HR and 20-25 RBIs in order to get a consistent hitter? What matters in the end is runs scored. Not batting average, OBP, or even slugging percentage. That's for Fantasy Leagues.

Dunn drives in runs. Lance Berkman is a $15 million dollar player, but over the past couple of seasons, he's only hit 1 more HR and 20 more RBIs than Dunn. But Dunn has scored 10 more runs. Berkman's average is very good, he gets a lot of hits, but he doesn't drive in that many more runs than Dunn.

I'm not saying Dunn is great for the Reds. I'm not saying he's bad for them. I've been frustrated with his inabililty (in the past) to hit the Sac Fly and hit for .280. But at the end of the season, he gets runners across the plate with the best of them. (11th best in the majors over the past 4 years.) So if they keep him, I'll be content.

Nuxhall41
05-19-2008, 03:42 PM
The question is, are you willing to give up 15-20 HR and 20-25 RBIs in order to get a consistent hitter? What matters in the end is runs scored.

What matters most is when you score them though. Dunn seemingly hits many of his HRs when the Reds are up by 6 runs or down by 6 and most of the time they are meaningless solo HRs that have no effect on the game one way or the other. I mean, this is why people are so shocked when he does actually hit in the clutch like he did this past weekend. And, as another sign of the apocalypse, he actually made plays in the field as well. :)

That said, he is what he is and the Reds have nothing else, so I think they will bring him back.

I(heart)Freel
05-19-2008, 03:46 PM
To get this back to a payroll thread...

Before arbitration hearings or contracts for those eligible (Encarnacion, Belisle), I have us at $51.73 million of payroll for next year. This does not include either the option or the buy out for Junior nor the option for Ross. Gaping holes exist in this scenario in (1) left field, (2) catcher, (3) filling out the bullpen and (4) bench/role players.

Reds spent $78 million this year, including dead contracts.

So... $27 million to spend on those needs IF payroll in 2009 is similar to 2008.

Krovvy Red
05-19-2008, 03:48 PM
I'd like to see numbers to back up this "not clutch" argument because I don't buy it. I hear this same story about a lot of players all over the league, that they don't hit when it counts, and no one ever backs it up beyond a statement like, "it just seems that way".

I want Dunn out, but not because he's not clutch. I just think Adam Dunn '09-'13 < what the Red's could get for his salary over that time + the prospects we get for him via trade/ the draft picks we get for him via FA. I'm not adament about this and I won't be upset if we re-sign him, but I'm certainly not going to say good riddance because he wasn't clutch. I'm much more likely to buy the subjective argument that as he goes so do the Reds.

durl
05-19-2008, 04:00 PM
What matters most is when you score them though. Dunn seemingly hits many of his HRs when the Reds are up by 6 runs or down by 6 and most of the time they are meaningless solo HRs that have no effect on the game one way or the other. I mean, this is why people are so shocked when he does actually hit in the clutch like he did this past weekend. And, as another sign of the apocalypse, he actually made plays in the field as well. :)

That said, he is what he is and the Reds have nothing else, so I think they will bring him back.

Somebody already looked it up:


Back on 4/18 I looked it up on baseball-reference.com and found this...

48&#37; of his home runs are in +/- 1 run situations...that goes to 65% when it's +/- 2 runs...only 20% are +/- 4 runs

keeganbrick
05-19-2008, 04:04 PM
milwaukee got braun for a STEAL and he is a better left fielder.. and a better batter.. and way younger.. soo please dont tell me you think dunn is worth more than 10 mil..

?????????? There is no question Dunn is going to get more than 10 million.

schmidty622
05-19-2008, 04:08 PM
I'd go after Pat Burrell to replace Dunn. More consistant with his numbers and right handed.

Krovvy Red
05-19-2008, 04:11 PM
I'd go after Pat Burrell to replace Dunn. More consistant with his numbers and right handed.

Pat Burrell is many things. Consistent is not one of them.

And thanks durl for those numbers on Dunn's clutchness. I appreciate concrete evidence.

levydl
05-19-2008, 04:23 PM
What matters most is when you score them though. Dunn seemingly hits many of his HRs when the Reds are up by 6 runs or down by 6 and most of the time they are meaningless solo HRs that have no effect on the game one way or the other. I mean, this is why people are so shocked when he does actually hit in the clutch like he did this past weekend. And, as another sign of the apocalypse, he actually made plays in the field as well. :)

That said, he is what he is and the Reds have nothing else, so I think they will bring him back.

For a guy that has hit 40 HRs per year in the last 4 years, does that really seem possible? Just think about it.

freestyle55
05-19-2008, 04:36 PM
And they're also not generally meaningless solo HR's either...

HR's with men on base
Adam Dunn 107/240 - 44.6&#37;

Other notable Reds
Ken Griffey 273/596 - 45.8%
Brandon Phillips 24/54 - 44.4%

Other notable sluggers
Ryan Howard 71/133 - 53.4%
Manny Ramirez 250/495 - 50.5%
Alex Rodriguez 254/522 - 48.7%
Albert Pujols 137/285 - 48.1%
Gary Sheffield 230/481 - 47.8%
Mark McGuire 277/583 - 47.5%
Sammy Sosa 283/609 - 46.5%
Miguel Cabrera 64/141 - 45.4%
Jim Thome 228/510 - 44.7%
Vladimir Guerrero 158/357 - 43.1%
Andrew Jones 153/368 - 41.6%
Barry Bonds 312/762 - 40.9%
Prince Fielder 31/81 - 38.3%
David Ortiz 102/267 - 38.2% - supposedly the most clutch player in baseball...


You can now update that to 110/248 - 44.35%

TN Red Fan
05-19-2008, 04:40 PM
In real terms, we're talking about needing to fill 3 everyday starting jobs (and 2 high leverage relief jobs) with less than $20m in "found money." Granted, ownership could up payroll to help things out, but contrary to this thread's assumptions, this ain't a situation that's gonna be solved by a shopping spree....

It's actually about $25 million and the relief pitchers could probably be found in the system.

TN Red Fan
05-19-2008, 04:43 PM
People shouldn't worry about the lefty/righty situation so much. Just look at the splits. Dunn, Bruce and Votto can all hit left handed pitching pretty well, so that alone shouldn't be reason to let Dunn walk.

If you still want to split them up even after looking at the splits, keep in mind that Brandon Phillips is a .900 OPS hitter against lefties.


Besides, a majority lefty lineup is better than a majority right-handed lineup, and most teams in MLB are majority right-handed.

durl
05-19-2008, 04:58 PM
Comparing Pat Burrell to Dunn 2004-2007:

Burrell's OBP is only a hair over Dunn's: .386 to .381.
Dunn wins SP: .538 to .492
BA is almost a wash but it's Burrell .264 to .253.

Other stats are a bit tainted since Dunn has about 250 more AB over that span, but as far as averages go, Burrell wouldn't be much of an improvement over Dunn. And Burrell makes over $14 million this year ($1.25 million more than Dunn.)

Nuxhall41
05-19-2008, 05:30 PM
For a guy that has hit 40 HRs per year in the last 4 years, does that really seem possible? Just think about it.

Well, when someone says 6(six) runs, obviously there is some hyperbole involved. It's not meant to be an exact mathematical description. :) And I said many of his HRs, not most.

Let me restate it all. Dunn is not a clutch player. Is someone arguing he is a clutch player?

- .221 for his career, RISP
- .210 for his carrer, RISP, 2 outs
- .176 in '08, RISP
- .000 In '08, RISP, 2 outs
- a year and whatever without a sacrifice fly
- 1127 Ks in his career

If Dunn is hitting 48% of his HRs in +1/-1 situations, I suspect they are coming early in the game, not when a game is on the line. I can only remember a small number of instances of the guy ever hitting late-inning game-changing HRs. I do remember however hundreds of instances of him striking out in these situations.

Dunn is all-or-nothing and that would be fine if it were clutch game-changing all and he were good in the field. There are many holes in his game for 15 mill. a year however.

Hondo
05-19-2008, 05:33 PM
Well, when someone says 6(six) runs, obviously there is some hyperbole involved. It's not meant to be an exact mathematical description. :) And I said many of his HRs, not most.

Let me restate it all. Dunn is not a clutch player. Is someone arguing he is a clutch player?

- .221 for his career, RISP
- .210 for his carrer, RISP, 2 outs
- .176 in '08, RISP
- .000 In '08, RISP, 2 outs
- a year and whatever without a sacrifice fly
- 1127 Ks in his career

If Dunn is hitting 48% of his HRs in +1/-1 situations, I suspect they are coming early in the game, not when a game is on the line. I can only remember a small number of instances of the guy ever hitting late-inning game-changing HRs. I do remember however hundreds of instances of him striking out in these situations.

Dunn is all-or-nothing and that would be fine if it were clutch game-changing all and he were good in the field. There are many holes in his game for 15 mill. a year however.


Ok, just who are the Reds supposed to INVEST in?

I wonder why they just didn't sign A-Rod last Winter when he was a Free Agent for awile... If it is so simple?

Nuxhall41
05-19-2008, 05:39 PM
Ok, just who are the Reds supposed to INVEST in?

I wonder why they just didn't sign A-Rod last Winter when he was a Free Agent for awile... If it is so simple?

Well, I said they would re-sign him because they have nothing else. I could certainly understand it if they dealt him though. You could go either way.

Hondo
05-19-2008, 05:43 PM
There is Vladamir Guerrero and Manny Ramirez out there for Free Agents next Year...

How much do you think they will cost?

Nuxhall41
05-19-2008, 05:50 PM
There is Vladamir Guerrero and Manny Ramirez out there for Free Agents next Year...

How much do you think they will cost?

The Reds need to build with youth. They're not in a position financially or at a point talent-wise where it would ever make sense for them to make a move like that. I'm not sure it even makes sense to keep Dunn. You can go either way on it.

Hondo
05-19-2008, 06:05 PM
The Reds need to build with youth. They're not in a position financially or at a point talent-wise where it would ever make sense for them to make a move like that. I'm not sure it even makes sense to keep Dunn. You can go either way on it.

I was being Sarcastic, cause them guys are going to go for like 20 Million a year...

I apologize for the confusion

Nuxhall41
05-19-2008, 06:07 PM
I was being Sarcastic, cause them guys are going to go for like 20 Million a year...

I apologize for the confusion

Right, and I understood that and took the high road.

Sorry for the confusion.

durl
05-19-2008, 10:03 PM
Well, when someone says 6(six) runs, obviously there is some hyperbole involved. It's not meant to be an exact mathematical description. :) And I said many of his HRs, not most.

Let me restate it all. Dunn is not a clutch player. Is someone arguing he is a clutch player?

- .221 for his career, RISP
- .210 for his carrer, RISP, 2 outs
- .176 in '08, RISP
- .000 In '08, RISP, 2 outs
- a year and whatever without a sacrifice fly
- 1127 Ks in his career

If Dunn is hitting 48% of his HRs in +1/-1 situations, I suspect they are coming early in the game, not when a game is on the line. I can only remember a small number of instances of the guy ever hitting late-inning game-changing HRs. I do remember however hundreds of instances of him striking out in these situations.

Dunn is all-or-nothing and that would be fine if it were clutch game-changing all and he were good in the field. There are many holes in his game for 15 mill. a year however.

That's some excellent information on Dunn. There's no doubt that both sides of this argument have plenty of ammunition. :)

Dunn is not necessarily the guy who sets your mind at ease with RISP. But I still can't get all those Runs Scored and RBIs over the past 4 years out of my head. All that matters is that the runs scored, not whether they scored from 3rd or 1st. Or whether they scored with 2 outs or no outs. I don't know...maybe I'm being too simplistic. And they just put up the stat before the game that the Reds are 8-2 when Dunn homers this year.

And if he scores runs early in the game to give the Reds the lead, at least that means that he GIVES them the lead so the Reds don't have to play from behind. I'd like to see him hit better in the clutch, no doubt. But if given the choice of a player who hits 80 RBIs and hits .300 wRISP and one that hits poorly wRISP but drives in 100 runs, I'll lean toward taking the player with the higher RBI total.

Nuxhall41
05-19-2008, 10:57 PM
Add one to the +2/-2 column. :)

Nuxhall41
05-19-2008, 11:06 PM
There's no doubt that both sides of this argument have plenty of ammunition.

I don't really have a side. Like I said, I believe they will re-sign him, but it could go either way. I would understand a decision either way.